Aspirational Touring Of The US Europe Other Places Had Over 10 crore Indians Spending $ 35 Billion Between 2017 and 2022 Plus Shopping Eating Hotels Sight Seeing- Permanent Immigration To The US Canada Australia Is Also In Top Gear

The Indian Middle Class, like the rest of the population, is growing exponentially, with constant migration to the cities that now includes more than 20 tier 2 cities. The percentage of the population employed in farming and services in rural areas is declining in keeping with mechanisation and international trends, even as rural prosperity is increasing alongside the GDP.

The easy access to social media, smart phones, streaming, TV, films, has increased exposure to the outside world to an unprecedented degree amongst all sections of the population. It is not surprising that most Indians now see the world as their oyster. Socialism is largely dead, replaced by welfare, aspiration, education, greater life expectancy, nutrition, health, higher income, and the realisation that India will soon be the third biggest economy in the world. It will have more than $ 10 trillion in GDP by 2030. Every day, the road, rail, air, infrastructure in the country is also being rapidly transformed.

The Opposition bemoans the unemployment situation and high food prices in the lead up to multiple elections. They do it so often that one might be forgiven for thinking that things are going very badly indeed despite Prime Minister Modi pointing out all the progress we have made in the last 10 years. Progress greater by far than ever before. But here you have it. Astounding overseas and domestic tourism figures that cannot happen without money in hand.

Now, in the second decade of 21^st century, and post Covid, international travel seems to have exploded amongst Indians. Who can say there is not enough disposable income amongst the Indian middle class? A middle class headed towards a third of the overall population of 1.44 billion. It may be too disparate  and opinionated to be a force  in elections, but even that will change.

Indians account for 10% of all visa applications at present to countries that require them. This despite a rupee/US dollar rate of exchange approaching an astronomical Rs. 85 to the dollar.

America with its B1/B2 visit visas, backed up for more than 400 days for Indians, still had 5.1 lakh desi visitors in the April-June 2023 quarter. Canada sent 26 million visitors to the US, but they don’t need visas.

India’s statistics are just behind the United Kingdom (who don’t need US visas either, being cousins from across the pond, firm US allies, and former colonial overlords), at 9.7 million visitors.

Mexico, next door, sent 7.2 million. Germany (at 4.7 million), and others from Europe, like the French, sent less tourists to America than the Indians in the April-June 2023 quarter.

Similar things are happening to domestic travel for leisure, pilgrimage, with the advent of the Vande Bharat trains, great highways, more airports and airlines, high car ownership. So much so, that the airlines have had to lower their domestic fares by up to 30% to try and compete with the vastly improved trains.   

Indians have spent $ 11.44 billion on overseas travel in the nine-month period of the current fiscal, between April to January. This is not counting shopping, and sight-seeing, entertaining, hotels, eating and so on, once abroad. This could easily double this figure if totted up. There is no restriction on how much foreign currency Indians can take abroad, provided that if it is more than $ 10,000 in currency or traveller’s cheques, it must be declared. And then there are the credit and forex cards. Till February 2023, the figure rose to $12.51 billion, up 104% over the same period last year.

It is estimated that the number of Indians travelling abroad for holidaying will treble by 2025. That means about 40% of international travellers will be from India. Its no wonder that Switzerland reckoned Indian tourists were accounting for two or three percentage points of their economy even two decades ago. It is why they have welcome boards out for Indians. Many others are following suit.

This is now being further driven by aspirational travel from tier 2 cities and budget carriers. The well-off, a category being upgraded all the time, will number more than 100 million people by themselves.

Overall, 10.3 crore Indians travelled abroad between 2017 and 2022 with 3.8 crores amongst them seeking to emigrate or acquire permanent residency in foreign countries like the US, Canada and Australia. Who are these people? Most of the 18 million Indian diaspora, the largest in the world, are temporary migrants to West Asia who remit home most of the USD 100 billion per annum now. Others are students, most of whom do come back to India.

In the 19^th century, aristocratic British in the heyday of the British Empire undertook at least one ‘Grand Tour’ to widen their perspective. It was to the ‘Continent’, that lasted, in those horse and carriage days, from Paris and Vienna, Switzerland and Germany to the South, about a year. Lingering in warm, artistic and cultured Southern Europe, in Italy and Spain, was particularly popular.

Going on the steam ship to America was also attractive to some, crossing on luxurious ocean liners to New York. But America, beyond her main cities like New York, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, New Orleans, St Louis, and Los Angeles, tended to be exotic in the 19^th century. The travel, over vast expanses, by the newly established train lines, or the horse drawn mail carriage, with armed guards, or both, was a little dangerous. Much of the hinterland, rivers, forests, mountains, the wild life, Bisons, the native Red Indians, was still relatively untamed. The Wild West was not a myth. Many witnessed the Wild Bill Hickock live travelling shows to form an idea.

Authors, poets, journalists, extolled the virtues of this travel and destinations for the others who could not afford it. There was, of course, no TV or radio, let alone social media. Even photography was relatively new. People relied on painters and landscape artists.

In the 20^th century, with the advent of early air travel in the 1930s, again it was the rich that could afford to go abroad by the smallish aeroplanes that could take about 30 passengers. The old Victorian era sea-side resorts within Britain had to suffice for the rest.

It was much the same for Indians. The Maharajahs sailed, some with a year’s supply of Ganga Jal for their drinking and cooking. Others flew, when the planes presented themselves, making multiple stops to Europe and back.  By the latter part of the 20^th century, after the two world wars, passenger ships had largely retreated from the travel map, except for the huge cruise liners, and air travel had been democratised.

Cheap tickets, charter aircraft tours, had secretaries and office boys jetting off to Spain for two weeks. And of course, farther afield to Asia, Africa. But it was still the province of the affluent West in the beginning.

Later, the same packaged tours and individually curated visits, some with Indian vegetarian and Jain cuisine cooks in tow, came to places like India, which were neither rich, nor had oil to sell for petrodollars. But, nevertheless, the international travel bug had bitten. If not multiple times at first, certainly once in a lifetime. If not Europe and America, then certainly Dubai and Thailand was possible.

 In addition, since 2011, more than 1.6 million have become citizens of foreign countries including 1,83,741 in 2022 alone.

1,63,370 Indians renounced their citizenship in 2021.Of these 78,284 became US citizens, followed by Australia 23,533, Canada 21,597, and Britain 14, 637. Of course, given our population of 1.4 billion plus, the emigration numbers are very small for us even as they are significant at No.1 for the host countries. Many are following their relatives already settled abroad. Others are minorities such as Christians who feel comfortable emigrating to Christian countries in the  First World. Or Jews, the younger of whom emigrate to Israel. The Anglo-Indians have gone. So have the Armenians. Now even a few of the young Kolkata Chinese. But the largest minority, nearly 200 million Muslims, have largely stayed put. It is therefore ironical that parts of the Western media call the present administration communal and anti-Muslim.

As India continues to prosper and acquire international influence, the people who want to renounce their citizenship may decline further, even amongst such pockets.  The Times, as Nobel laureate Bob Dylan put it in his youth, are-a-changing.

(1,393 words)

October 25^th , 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

Always The Means To Justify The Ends For Indian Communists

The Communist Big Wigs like Sitaram Yechury, were quick to jump to the defence of Newsclick, a digital website in India financed by Red China to spread anti-India propaganda. It was recently raided and shut down by the NIA, and its chief operators taken into custody.

The other organisation quick off the mark to the same end was Congress, its leader Rahul Gandhi and the eloquent ex diplomat Shashi Tharoor. They took to X, formerly known as Twitter, with alacrity. It is rumoured that both the CPI/CPM and the Congress are also financed by the Chinese now that the Soviets are out of business. And pleasing one’s benefactors is mandatory.

Both tried to paint the sedition of Newsclick in terms of an attack on press freedom, freedom of expression, and called it the action of an Undeclared Emergency by the ruling dispensation. Various left-leaning journalists decided to sit in the decrepit Press Club yard in New Delhi on plastic chairs in silent protest.

In the series of efforts, national and international, to destabilise the NDA government and get rid of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, another programme is in the works. It is designed to stir the caste cauldron in a manner not seen since the Mandal Commission Report was released by an opportunist VP Singh 30 years ago. Fiery protests erupted then, soon after, and made short work of VP Singh’s prime ministership. But the new effort has learned nothing from that history. If it backfires, The Hindu voter could cling more desperately to the BJP for faith and succour.

Nevertheless, three decades later, Nitish Kumar hanging on to his chief ministership by his fingernails has released a caste census for Bihar. This is after many failed initiatives such as his leaky and farcical attempts at prohibition to please the female voter.

 Congress ruled Karnataka may well be next to release a caste census that will annoy both the Vokkaligas and the Lingayats. Do they understand the implications?

This follows on from virulent attacks on Sanatan Dharma by MK Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi Stalin, and several other DMK ministers. The chief minister of Tamil Nadu meanwhile provides full support to the process.

All of it is meant to attack the monolithic approach to the Hindu vote bank by the BJP. This has resulted in most Hindus voting for the BJP in 2014 and 2019. The looming election of 2024 is seen as a do-or-die contest by the opposition combine I.N.D.I.A.

The Ayodhya Ram Temple to be inaugurated in January 2024 is also deeply worrying for the opposition. So is the possibility of a Uniform Civil Code and One Nation One Vote all seen to favour the ruling NDA if implemented.

So now, the idea is to shatter the perception of a unified Hindu vote bank into many caste shards. Rahul Gandhi, eager to woo the OBC and Dalit/Mahadalit sections, which constitute some two-thirds of the total in most states. This is apparently up from the Mandal Commission’s 52%. He has coined a new slogan -Jitna Abadi, Utna Huq in more or less record time.

His haste has quite ignored his, and indeed most of the opposition’s assiduous wooing of the Muslim minority vote since the very beginning. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to point this out, and wondered what was to become of the Muslims under opposition rule. This, even as he promised to look after them as part of his Sabka Vikas, Sabka Viswas umbrella.

Is I.N.D.I.A abandoning the maximum of 17% of Muslims nationally, in favour of the 66% of Hindus under the various backward castes? Is the desire to wrest them away, particularly the Mahadalits who have been voting en masse for the BJP, now overwhelming? Or do they believe the Muslims have nowhere else to go anyway?

Can they possibly succeed? What will their credibility be if they fail, given their poor grassroots organisation, and not enough time left to make the new pitch stick? Could it all go horribly wrong, as it did for VP Singh by stirring up the aspirations of the neglected, without any of them being met?

It is true that reservations have only worked fitfully in all the years they have been used, with the creamy layer within the caste groups, garnering the benefits. The concept of any of it reaching the last man has been no more than theoretically possible so far.

Also stirring up the demand for reservations may mean reservations for too many for any of it to be meaningful. Can reservations already given to some be withdrawn in favour of others? Cutting into reservation blocks, as is the demand from Congress and others in the Women’s Reservation Bill just passed after 27 years of wrangling and non -starter attempts, could leave all sides disgruntled.

This entire caste census and its aftermath, reservations within reservations like so many Matrushka Dolls, could be the opening of a Pandora’s Box. Many analysts have begun to point this out.

The Communists have little to lose. They only control Kerala now, and seem in no danger of losing it. So, taking a Trotskyist line on the means justified by the intended ends suits them.

Congress is taking a bigger and wilder gamble and could come unstuck.

TMC is not in favour of this caste ploy because it is well entrenched with the Muslim minority in West Bengal.

DMK is strong in Tamil Nadu and has cast the Sanatana Dharma calumny as a contribution to the I.N.D.I.A alliance for what it is worth, and a sneer at the Cow Belt North. It does not have ambitions outside the state, and is not receiving any criticism over this overt attack against high-caste Hindus from its chief rival the AIADMK.

Besides the Stalins and others in DMK are quite largely Christian.

Leon Trotsky was the chief theorist of the early Russian Revolution known for his seeming ideological flexibility. After the early demise of Lenin soon after the Communists came to power, the pragmatic Stalin, from peasant and non-intellectual stock, had no use for Trotsky’s sophistry.  Trotsky fled to Mexico fearing for his life, but Stalin’s goons found him there and killed him.

The Indian Communists practice a form of Trotskyism all the time, speaking against caste and religion when it suits their objective, and the opposite at a time like this. They feel safe in the knowledge they are unlikely to be assassinated here in India. So why not exploit the benefits of democracy by calling it the worst kind of fascism? And why not take from the Chinese when they offer it?

Trotsky once said, to paraphrase the cynicism of his thinking, lay out the various lies in front of me and I will pick out the truth from amongst them. His exact quote was ‘Tell me anyway-Maybe I can find the truth by comparing the lies’.

Sitaram Yechury, with the most Hindu of names, a Brahmin as it happens, is not only a survivor, but a good student of Leon Trotsky.

(1,168 words)

October 4^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

OBITUARY

MS Swaminathan Legendary Agri-Scientist Who Catalysed The Current Grain Surplus For 1.44 Billion People, Dies At 98

The legendary scientist, born in 1925, that transformed an India that was dependent on wheat shipments as food aid from America, into a food surplus nation, has just passed away in his home in Chennai at the age of 98.  

Lauded on his demise by the President, Prime Minister, Home Minister and Agriculture Minister amongst many eminent and ordinary Bharatiyas, Dr. Mankombu  Sambasivan Swaminathan is succeeded by three highly educated and accomplished daughters.

Assisted by the influential American agronomist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dr. Norman Ernest Borlaug, the exceptional vision of Dr. MS Swaminathan transformed India’s staple food yields.

From near famine conditions in 1960s Bharat, Dr Swaminathan catalysed the Nehru Government effort towards the ample production of the ‘Green Revolution’ that matured fully during the regime of Indira Gandhi as prime minister.

It all began with a 100 kg bag of seeds of the Mexican Dwarf Wheat sent to Dr Swaminathan by Dr Borlaug. From this small beginning, the wheat yields in India grew more than ten-fold. This was occasioned, after Dr Swaminathan’s conviction in the matter, and his extensive studies in India and several countries abroad.

MS Swaminathan turned down opportunities to work in America, in order to return to his home country to make what turned out to be his singular contribution.

Swaminathan’s early and yeoman efforts towards the introduction of high yielding and disease resistant varieties of wheat, rice, potatoes, and other crops ended the period of chronic food shortfalls in Bharat once and for all. It is said Ms Swaminathan chose his profession as a agricultural scientist after noting the ravages of the Bengal famine in the 1940s. 

MS Swaminathan recognised the potential of the Mexican dwarf wheat varieties early in the day, causing Nehru to write to the Rockefeller Foundation that was financing Dr. Borlaug’s research in Mexico. Swaminathan invited Borlaug to tour India and see conditions for himself, which Borlaug did in 1964. Thereafter, the 1970 Nobel laureate sent Swaminathan a bag containing 100 kg of the Mexican dwarf seed created by Borlaug at the International Centre for Wheat and Maize improvement in Mexico. Dr Swaminathan’s intent was to breed these with varieties from Japan.

By 1956, Mexico had already become self-sufficient in wheat using Borlaug’s dwarf varieties, and Swaminathan was convinced Bharat could do likewise.

On receipt of the new varieties of wheat, Swaminathan started them on a number of experimental plots in different places in Bharat and noted their high yields and disease resistance. Along with his team of scientists, he then organised large numbers of farmers to plant the new varieties in several parts of the country but most notably in Punjab. In 1965, the Indian Agriculture Minister C Subramaniam aided the process by ordering 250 tonnes of the seed.

Swaminathan also introduced new varieties of potato including a frost resistant variety he had developed while working in Wisconsin, USA.

In addition, Swaminathan developed rice varieties with better carbon fixation which allowed for improved photosynthesis and water usage.

Dr MS Swaminathan completed his batchelor’s degree in agricultural science followed by a postgraduate degree in cytogenetics. He served as the Director General of The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the International Rice Research Institute in the Philippines. He also served as the Principal Secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture in 1979. In 1988 Swaminathan was appointed President of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.

Dr MS Swaminathan won a profusion of national and international awards including the Ramon Magsaysay Award in 1971, The World Food Prize in 1987 and the Padma Vibushan in 1989. Swaminathan was awarded scores of honorary doctorates throughout his active life.

He was a pivotal figure for decades in India’s march to not just self-sufficiency in food, but creation of enormous surpluses for strategic reserves and exports. This even as the population has more than quadrupled since independence along with a doubling of life expectancy.

(653 words)

September 29^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

KSA Is Now In The Driving Seat For the Bharat West Asia Europe Corridor Incorporating Road, Rail, Port ,Digital Connectivity & Backed By The US

 His Royal Highness Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS), Crown Prince and de facto ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), (on behalf of his ailing and elderly father King Salman of the Royal House of Saud), has launched his State Visit to India on the 11^th of September 2023. This is his second state visit since February 2019.

This state visit has come immediately after MBS attended the very successful two-day G21 Summit, concluded on the 10^th. A number of new agreements are likely to be signed during the one-day bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Modi at Hyderabad House in the capital. Bharat and KSA have also become strategic partners and will be signing the minutes of the first meeting of a strategic council formed for the purpose. Bharat is presently Saudi Arabia’s second largest trading partner but the potential to grow it in quantum and volume terms is considerable. MBS clearly sees this, and is putting his policy heft behind this endeavour alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Agreements on defence, security, trade, services, labour, manufacturing, supply chains, energy, including alternate and renewable energy, agriculture, food security, digital technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), two-way investment programmes, cooperation in space, are some of the areas that will be covered.

Of course, the big new development at the G21 Summit is the massive infrastructure project announced. It was one of the biggest, important and immediately tangible announcements at the Summit. An integrated road, rail, port, ship, sea and digitally connected corridor leading from Bharat through West Asia overland as well as land/sea to Europe, will be commenced within 60 days by all the countries concerned. It will also link the regions it passes through with electricity connectivity and incorporate green Hydrogen pipelines.

It is inclusive of, and will involve, most of the countries in the West Asian region including the UAE, Oman, Jordan, Israel, and then on to Europe by land, as well as via Port Haifa in Israel and Port Piraeus in Greece. It is a massive project involving trillions of dollars in investment, expected to come from in-country resources, multilateral sources such as the World Bank and IMF, some private investment, all underwritten by the US, which is also a member of the I2U2 strategic initiative. It is likely to earn huge resources as well when completed. It has the potential of speeding goods movements from Bharat to Europe by as much as 40%, saving both time and money.

This new set of integrated routes will be an alternative to the overburdened and out-of-date Suez Canal.

The KSA was drifting away from the US after the controversies and criticisms  raised against MBS by America after the grisly murder of dissident Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Turkiye. So much so, that Saudi Arabia drew closer to China that even brokered a rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The KSA also did Yuan trades with China for its petroleum exports to the dragon.

President Biden therefore looked visibly pleased at the G21 Summit with Bharat’s initiative of this new Corridor that drew KSA, an old ally, back into the US sphere of influence.

The new and momentous announcement threatens the Chinese debt-trap creating Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and its recent growing influence in West Asia that even sought to mediate in the KSA War with the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Soon after the announcement of this new corridor, G7 member Italy announced its withdrawal from China’s BRI via its Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, very much present at the G21 Summit.

From the Bharatiya perspective, the straws have been in the wind for some time. Adani is already redeveloping Haifa Port in Israel. Haifa is famous from WWI as the place liberated by Bharatiya troops working in the British Empire Army. Those brave mounted soldiers are immortalised in a sculpture facing Teen Murti Bhavan in New Delhi, which was once the residence of the British Indian Army Chief.

Recently Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a visit to  Athens, Greece, on his way home from Johannesburg where he had gone to attend the BRICS Summit. Greece was last visited by Bharatiya Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, way back, in 1983.

Piraeus Port development in Greece is also on Adani’s radar. Greece is keen on becoming Bharat’s gateway to Europe as expressed by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and President Karerina Sakellaropoulou during Modi’s day-long recent visit.

The Adani Group has been foremost in modern port development and green infrastructure projects in Bharat, and even coal-mining in Australia. It has been active throughout the last ten years, and even earlier, starting with the highly modern Kandla container handling port and terminus in Gujarat.

Indian Railways has reformed and revived its abilities and could well play a stellar part in the new West-Asian portion of the corridor.

India’s Reliance Industries, one of the world’s biggest petroleum refiners, is an early mover in the area of Hydrogen production and its application in transport amongst other things.

Officially called the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), it is being hailed as a modern-day Spice Route. It is expected to stimulate economic development throughout the Eurasian corridor. In the European section, participants include France, Germany, Italy, the US and the EU.

The MoU drafted at the New Delhi G21 has been signed by India, USA, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy and the European Union.

 In an initiative that will enthuse the 55 nation African Union, newly a part of the G21, the United States will simultaneously invest in a rail line from Angola in Central Africa, to the Indian Ocean.

China, that absented itself from the New Delhi Summit, is not only stymied diplomatically by these initiatives, it really does not have the money anymore to see its BRI dreams through as the sole financier. The 146 signatories to the BRI will, no doubt, begin to abandon it, following Italy’s example.

Saudi Arabia will play a pivotal role in the West Asian section of the corridor along with the UAE, Israel and Bharat. But through this back-to-back state visit, MBS who’s stopped in New Delhi since the 8^th of September, seeks to expand the strategic partnership with Bharat into multiple avenues. The endeavour is to take it far beyond being one of the world’s biggest petroleum producers. Bharat, on its way to becoming the 3^rd biggest economy in the world with a projected GDP of over $10 trillion, is equally keen on the win-win development.

 

(1,074 words)

September 11, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The G21 New Delhi Summit With 43 Countries -Invitees, Multilateral Institutions, The Global South & The African Union

This G21 can only be seen as Bharat’s unprecedented and spectacular coming- out-party at the high table bedecked with gleaming silverware. It is hosted by our charismatic Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has established himself as a significant and influential global leader.  

The attendance underlines the recognition of this country as the unstoppable 3^rd largest global power by 2030, with likely a $ 10 trillion plus economy by then.

The first dramatic accomplishment, at the very start of the deliberations today at this mighty gathering, was the induction of the 55 country African Union as a permanent member of the G20 to make it up to G21.

This represents the result of not only Bharat’s steadfast sponsorship and advocacy of this cause, but the recognition of a changing world order. It has been dominated for long and is still led by the G7 countries. Now they, at the urging of India, the obsolescence and racism of old methods, are willing to change.  The economic and political world order has remained almost unchanged since WWII with the West in the driver’s seat. However, the emergence of ancient and modern countries like Bharat that believes in its inclusive and peaceful principles has made an impact. Amongst Prime Minister Modi’s many ‘one world’ coinages, he uses the term ‘Humancentric’ which seems to resonate with other leaders.  

In a counter to Chinese neo-imperialism, institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are going to receive a $ 200 billion injection announced by the United States. Terms will be renegotiated to offer better lending formats to the African Union and other countries of the Global South, groaning under massive and unsupportable debt.

African countries have had to pay as much as five times as much for its multilateral loans which have ended up badly roiling their economies. China has in recent years exploited this anomaly with rapacious terms for  their development loans. These were extended, sometimes to access rich mineral resources, and at other times to push China’s Belt and Road Programme (BRI). Almost all of it however has been bogged down as bad debt because there is little bankability of these developments. It has, in turn, been putting immense pressure on the Chinese economy as well.

The most powerful and significant countries of the world are all here in New Delhi for the two-day summit, with two notable exceptions.

President Putin preoccupied with the Ukraine War, sent his venerable Foreign Minister Lavrov. President Xi Jinping, probably occupied with immense domestic economic ‘turmoil’, as characterised by senior members of the ruling CCP, sent Premier Li who is well known for his economic management. However this came unstuck with his disastrous handling of the severe lockdowns in major Chinese cities during Covid.

Both Russia and China heads, seen as ever closer allies, stayed away from the recent ASEAN Summit in Jakarta as well.

The United States, represented in New Delhi by President Joe Biden has expressed disappointment with China’s no-show. Its tacit and active support to Russia in the conduct of the Ukraine War, along with its belligerent satellite North Korea, is of particular concern. America has also criticised China’s latest bizarre ‘standard map’ that not only claims various territories in India and along the South China Sea, but seeks to disrupt the ‘rules-based-world-order’.

A number of affected countries at ASEAN, and here at the G20 Summit, along with Bharat, have condemned the new Chinese map and China’s attempt at muscle flexing.

Bharat pulled out all the stops to set the environs with flowers and fountains, a spanking new state-of-the-art venue, the host hotels tricked out to be at the top of their game, the approaches, monuments, selected shopping locations, Bharat’s proud digital accomplishments and processes, enormous security preparations, were all decked out in celebratory mode. This comes at the culmination of some 40 meetings of the G20 spread out all over the country.

Inside and outside the summit venue, Bharat’s 5,000 plus year old history and culture was showcased. It was replete with magnificent statues of a number of Hindu Gods. Prime Minister Modi received the honoured guests in front of a replica of the Konarak Wheel from the Sun Temple in Odisha. A massive 27 feet high dancing Nataraja made of Ashtadhatu, fronts the G20 venue dubbed a  Bharat Mandapam.

There is considerable consensus on matters like Climate Change, alternate energy development, and opportunities for the Global South. But the Ukraine War has the US and the G7 countries in a mood to insert a critical reference against Russia in the Declaration expected at the end of the Summit tomorrow the 10^th of September 2023. Russia says a political reference has no place in a G21 economic summit.

Russia, of course, sees the Ukraine War very differently. China and India are not willing to condemn Russia unilaterally for their own reasons. India has called for dialogue to resolve the conflict and has long been saying for long that this is not a time for War. At this summit, Prime Minister Modi referred to a ‘trust deficit’ without once mentioning Ukraine, implying a solution can be found through dialogue.

The paragraph on Ukraine has been left blank by the Sherpas working on the draft declaration. This even as nuanced drafting aimed at a consensus is continuing. Will this scuttle a joint declaration at the end of the summit?

India has had both the USSR and its successor Russia as a steadfast ally and friend for decades, and some 50% of its military equipment is of Russian/Soviet origin. This has been complemented with sourcing from the US, France, Israel in recent years, and more and more emphasis on aatmanirbhar or joint venture manufacturing in Bharat.

If there is an element of peevishness and desire to steal India’s thunder that has caused Chinese President Xi Jinping to stay away from this summit, and the one in Jakarta, it is probably working against China.

Without Xi Jinping adding his sour glowering presence, displayed recently at Johannesburg for the BRICS Summit, there is no great loss. At Johannesburg, the addition of nine new members through consensus amongst the five existing members, by 1^st January 2024 did nor quite go per the Chinese plan. It robbed China of its desire to dominate the forum with just two or three additions of its own choice.

Chinese government mouthpieces such as The Global Times seem to be portraying the Chinese mood today, with its sniping against the New Delhi summit from Beijing.

The question in many minds is just how much trouble is Xi Jinping in, given his poor handling of the Chinese economy and his diplomatic wolf warrior tactics that has almost every country exasperated. He has been called out by his mentor amongst others, and under pressure, has attempted to deny responsibility for the current state of affairs.

The G21 has also announced a railway-based land/port connectivity project involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US and Bharat. This new initiative is also likely to check growing Chinese influence in West Asia.

Brazil will take over the leadership of the G21 after the 10^th of September for the next year.

Prime Minister Modi is working through as many as 15 bilateral meetings and some pull-asides during these three days, ever since the leaders started to arrive on 8^th September. The bilateral with the US reportedly will advance defence cooperation and joint venturing beyond the GE 414 fighter engine deal with 80% technology transfer, and those for the Predator drones.

The one with Bangladesh illustrates the most successful relationship with a neighbouring country. Various others will each advance Bharat’s strategic partnership with its counterparts.

Initiatives to corner economic fugitives, confiscate their properties and freeze their bank accounts are likely to be internationally agreed. Bharat’s digital payment systems may be adopted by as many as a dozen countries.

Amongst all this, the retreat of China from the reformist gathering, despite the presence of Premier Li, may well be marking a watershed moment.

(1,332 words)

September 9^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

India Assumes Centre-Stage In BRICS As China Loses Influence

It is ironic that China should now be playing second-fiddle to India in both the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. This is not admitted to by either side, but perceptually it is increasingly evident.

India held the rotating chair in the SCO for a year most successfully till it ended recently, and appears to be dominating the agenda at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg too.

So much so, that while India’s Narendra Modi pointed out that it will soon be a $ 5 trillion economy open to do business with the Global South and others, Xi Jinping of China did not make a speech, and stayed away from the Business Session attended by the other three.

President Putin joined in virtually from Moscow. This is the first in-person Summit of BRICS since 2019. Prime Minister Modi called India the growth engine of the world in an unabashed pitch to over 40 countries present, and the global audience via coverage of the three-day event ongoing.

Russia is represented by its highly experienced Foreign Minister Lavrov. It complained, as expected, about the Western sanctions imposed on it, but pledged support to the Global South, and Africa in particular. If President Putin was referring to grain shipments, Africa will note that those too were disrupted more than once.

India is more credible in this matter, because of its timely help with vaccines during the Covid pandemic, while most others, including the rich Western countries, hoarded their own supplies. Its treatment of the many additional invitees to the G20 Summit approaching its climax next month is also much appreciated by the Global South and indeed most of the G 7 as well including Japan and France.

Xi did attend the retreat for the heads of government, but, reading between the lines, did not make any headway with China’s bid to expand the BRICS line- up immediately. China wants to form a larger block to rival the domination of the ‘Global Commons’ regime, helmed by the US. However, previous attempts ranging from the post-colonial Non-Aligned movement to the G 15 have never been effective. A line-up of about 45 countries in BRICS is unlikely to do any better.

This ‘Commons’ regime refers to the dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, the SWIFT system as the international method of banking money flows, free and open access to the trade waterways of the high seas. It also includes America’s established hold on a number of global institutions, defence cooperation-oriented organisations, such as NATO, AUKUS and QUAD.

Any attempt to go beyond talking about a BRICS currency is unrealistic. India has made headway in trading bilaterally in local currencies with a number of countries, but this too is hampered with not enough presence in global trade. As India’s economy grows, the rupee will gain greater acceptance in international trade, said  Columbia University professor and economist Arvind Panagariya in a recent article.

China, by way of contrast, could not properly float its external Yuan as an exchange currency and has been struggling to make something of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an Asia-Pacific based trade pact, akin to a common market. Many in it are chafing at direction from China which tends to advantage it, and India, of course, has refused to join just as it refused to join China’s Belt and Road initiative. This was prescient because it has severely stressed or bankrupted those who have.

India, under Modi, since 2014, has been joining and participating in other regional meetings of organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). These are influential, but not subject to outright Chinese domination. It is also making every effort in BIMSTEC, particularly with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the successor, more or less to SAARC, that has been stymied by Pakistan. Relations with Nepal too are getting better with its infatuation with Chinese Communism on the decline.

India is trying hard to reduce its trade with, and investment from, China. Moves like the licencing of the manufacture of laptops and other electronic items is a step in this direction.

Given the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation of over 50,000 troops with massive deployment of military equipment on each side along the Line of Actual Control (LaC), the relationship between India and China is not good.

Intrusions and illegal holding of perceived Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh, actual skirmishes and clashes in Ladakh and in Arunachal Pradesh, make up an adverse list, alongside Chinese training, arming and funding of multiple insurgencies in India. Chinese encouragement of Pakistani terrorism is also a huge problem, as is its blocking of Indian initiatives against terrorists in the UN. China has also blocked Indian membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Chinese companies that have been operating in India have been caught evading taxes and breaking rules. Most Chinese companies are now banned from making investments in India. China itself has also broken international trading rules after joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Indian diplomacy has been candid in stating the relationship with China is at present not normal and cannot be given the circumstances. Even today China is regularly menacing the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan in its near neighbourhood.

Against this backdrop, the possibility of a bilateral meeting at Johannesburg between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping is unlikely and rather pointless.

However, both are conducting many bilateral meetings with the other BRICS members and over 40 invited countries, many of whom want to join BRICS.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Johannesburg also called for the building of a ‘resilient supply chain’ a diplomatic code also used by the Americans to reduce dependence on China.

China, on its part complained rather bitterly of US ‘hegemony’, and hostility towards the poorer countries of the Global South. While this may seem incongruous in a BRICS Summit, perhaps it is trying to claw-back some vestiges of its global image that has taken a severe battering of late.

Not only is China regarded as the villain of the piece with regard to the global Covid pandemic that has taken millions of lives, but its plummeting economy, huge unemployment, collapsing companies, and chronic belligerence has  put off most of the world. African countries have been expelling the Chinese for their arrogant, racist, and predatory ways. Most of the world is losing faith with China’s ambitions given its sharp decline.

The only economy that is growing strongly amongst the five present members of BRICS is India’s. And India has apparently persuaded the other two present, namely Brazil’s Lula da Silva and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa to agree to a process for expanding the BRICS line-up first. 

The Shanghai-based BRICS Bank, formally known as the New Development Bank, has failed to rival the major US backed multilateral lending institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and others.

India is a darling to these institutions, with its approximately 7 % GDP growth year on year. It is called a ‘beacon of hope’ in a world troubled economically at present.

President Biden has stated that he considers India to be the most important country to him, in the backdrop of this BRICS Summit, and will be visiting New Delhi shortly between 7-9 September for the G 20 Summit, along with a host of other heads of government. His announced agenda at the G20 is to condemn Russia for the Ukraine War.

 This 15^th Summit of BRICS was preceded by Prime Minister Modi pointing out the need to identify new areas of cooperation.

Prime Minister Modi will go on to Greece on the 25^th from South Africa for a day long visit on his return path to India. Greece is offering a gateway to Europe for India, even as it has been interacting closely with rival China in recent years after its economy went bankrupt and was rescued by its membership of the EU and massive new loans.

Like the rivalry in BRICS and SCO, India and China will continue to compete with each other in the global arena, and in economy-oriented organisations like these. This will have multiple effects on the geopolitics of the world, but India’s economy, much smaller than China as present, is assured of medium to long-term success. This is mainly because of an alignment with America and its Western allies that give it an edge in security matters. Its largely aatmanirbhar economy, backed by strong domestic demand and proportionate exports, is poised to make it become the 3^rd biggest in the world by 2028-2030. After that its numbers won’t stay very much smaller than those of the Chinese economy, presently at No.2.

(1,446 words)

August 23^rd, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

A Shambolic Debut On the National Stage For the Opposition Alliance of 26 Parties

Now that the Monsoon Session of Parliament has ended in the old building while the new one awaits use after its inauguration; we could talk about the A.L.L.I.A.N.C.E coming-out party. It took the form of a farcical No Confidence Motion that was a damp squib.

The ostensible reason was to force the prime minister to speak out on the troubles in Manipur. What the Opposition alliance did not bargain for is that the treasury benches would wipe the floor with them on matters including Manipur, but much more in an adverse vein particularly against the Congress. Home Minister Amit Shah’s two-hour explanation with detailed facts and figures on what is being done by the government in Manipur gave a comprehensive report not only to the ill-prepared opposition but the nation at large.

Much hysteria was displayed by this opposition with its single point agenda, including some trademark childishness from the SC restored Rahul Gandhi, and a banshee like performance by Mohua Moitra from the TMC. There was another bull-in-a-china shop effort by Derek O Brien from the self-same party also, but this was in the Rajya Sabha.

The prime minister spoke last in reply, and rendered a masterful and magisterial speech of over one-and-a-half hours. This was on parliamentary history, the shameless projection of the ‘parivaar’ over every other contributor towards nation-building, the consistent shortcomings of the Congress Party in its handling of the North East, the accomplishments of his own government in nine years, the naked power-hungriness of the opposition alliance, and Manipur specifically too. It was so searing in its content that the Opposition alliance shuffled out of the Lok Sabha like so many convicts in a chain gang. They came back for the voting, but they might as well not have bothered.

Adhiranjan Chowdhury, once a fiery street speaker cum rabble-rouser from West Bengal, and since a prominent leader in the Lok Sabha for Congress, was suspended till a Privileges Committee goes into the matter. Likewise, AAP’s Raghav Chadha, who apparently forged the signatures of four MPs from other parties for an intended Select Committee that never took off.  Derek O Brien was suspended too, but allowed back in later by the Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankar.

The entire three-day tamasha was televised on most Indian news channels and analysed every evening by expert panellists and despairing anchors who might have hoped for a less unequal fight. As usual, the vitriol continued through the wounded Congress spokespersons.

After it was all over in parliament, one broadly pro-Congress channel even put out a confused poll. Because the polled, who might have been opposition supporters, were still unable to say much in favour of the opposition alliance. I.N.D.I.A is scheduled to meet again in Mumbai at the end of August, but it is likely the AAP will skip it.

What did this No-Confidence Vote exercise achieve? It certainly made the government and the treasury benches look much better than their accusers.

Will it contribute towards the winnability of the I.N.D.I.A Alliance in the forthcoming assembly elections and the general elections in 2024? Doubtful. It was, in fact a disastrous first outing.

The return of Rahul Gandhi to parliament as a for-the-time-being restored MP, complicates the pitch for other prime ministerial aspirants in the opposition alliance. Nitish Kumar has reportedly managed to secure the post of Convenor as a stepping stone for his own bid. There are doubts being expressed by some analysts on the cohesion of I.N.D.I.A till the general elections. In Bihar, the JDU/JDS combine may not sustain in one piece. Will both bits stick with the opposition alliance if a break up does occur?

The Congress needs to up its Lok Sabha seat tally to at least 100 MPs in order to become the undeniable anchor. While it is the only party with pan-India recognition in the combine, its electoral prospects are not inspiring. Rahul Gandhi’s visibility may have increased since the Bharat Jodo Yatra but his vision for India is a retrograde one. He merely wants to preserve the Nehruvian Idea of India. His own contribution seems to a sharp tilt towards the minorities, including the extremists amongst them. The Congress Party links with China and Pakistan are also exposed and fairly obvious. Rahul Gandhi is travelling to Europe once again in September to drum up support from more anti-Modi forces. He will, no doubt, also describe conditions in Indian democracy in the most dire terms.

It is unlikely that the Indian voter, beyond the Congress’ fairly narrow supporter base, will take kindly to this strategy. More so, when it is contrasted with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly effective global diplomatic outreach, supported ably by the External Affairs Minister, and increasingly, the National Security Adviser.

India’s continued rise as an economic power and reliable partner is being seen as an alternative to a declining China, for trade, manufacturing, and defence purposes. Even the leadership of BRICS, started originally alongside China. Russia, Brazil, is turning more towards India for its future direction and induction of likely additional members, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. BRICS is no longer keen to push the Chinese agenda, if it ever was, with its aim to dominate America, while others in the combine were expected to fall-in with it.

The lack of a national and global vision in the opposition alliance beyond the overthrow of the BJP and NDA is going to hurt its prospects. It sometimes talks of unemployment, price rise, per capita income, cronyism, but does not sustain it. Neither does it have any solutions. It bases its campaigns on AAP style freebies, which resonate with the poor in the voting public. But they invariably have trouble fulfilling promises and sustain development if voted to power.

However, ten years in power at the Centre is bound to throw up a certain amount of anti-incumbency for the ruling NDA. On the plus side, Narendra Modi’s personal popularity, charisma, and commitment to the nation, will counterbalance this. Prime Minister Modi, who will be 75 in 2025, is in good health and likely to complete another five-year term in office to execute his vision. He has repeatedly pledged that India will be the No.3 economy in the world by 2028, and will do everything possible to keep the momentum towards this objective.

At present, the chances of a third consecutive term with a majority in favour of the BJP and the NDA seem very bright.       

(1,074 words)

August 12^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18

Gautam Mukherjee