India Assumes Centre-Stage In BRICS As China Loses Influence

It is ironic that China should now be playing second-fiddle to India in both the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. This is not admitted to by either side, but perceptually it is increasingly evident.

India held the rotating chair in the SCO for a year most successfully till it ended recently, and appears to be dominating the agenda at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg too.

So much so, that while India’s Narendra Modi pointed out that it will soon be a $ 5 trillion economy open to do business with the Global South and others, Xi Jinping of China did not make a speech, and stayed away from the Business Session attended by the other three.

President Putin joined in virtually from Moscow. This is the first in-person Summit of BRICS since 2019. Prime Minister Modi called India the growth engine of the world in an unabashed pitch to over 40 countries present, and the global audience via coverage of the three-day event ongoing.

Russia is represented by its highly experienced Foreign Minister Lavrov. It complained, as expected, about the Western sanctions imposed on it, but pledged support to the Global South, and Africa in particular. If President Putin was referring to grain shipments, Africa will note that those too were disrupted more than once.

India is more credible in this matter, because of its timely help with vaccines during the Covid pandemic, while most others, including the rich Western countries, hoarded their own supplies. Its treatment of the many additional invitees to the G20 Summit approaching its climax next month is also much appreciated by the Global South and indeed most of the G 7 as well including Japan and France.

Xi did attend the retreat for the heads of government, but, reading between the lines, did not make any headway with China’s bid to expand the BRICS line- up immediately. China wants to form a larger block to rival the domination of the ‘Global Commons’ regime, helmed by the US. However, previous attempts ranging from the post-colonial Non-Aligned movement to the G 15 have never been effective. A line-up of about 45 countries in BRICS is unlikely to do any better.

This ‘Commons’ regime refers to the dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, the SWIFT system as the international method of banking money flows, free and open access to the trade waterways of the high seas. It also includes America’s established hold on a number of global institutions, defence cooperation-oriented organisations, such as NATO, AUKUS and QUAD.

Any attempt to go beyond talking about a BRICS currency is unrealistic. India has made headway in trading bilaterally in local currencies with a number of countries, but this too is hampered with not enough presence in global trade. As India’s economy grows, the rupee will gain greater acceptance in international trade, said  Columbia University professor and economist Arvind Panagariya in a recent article.

China, by way of contrast, could not properly float its external Yuan as an exchange currency and has been struggling to make something of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an Asia-Pacific based trade pact, akin to a common market. Many in it are chafing at direction from China which tends to advantage it, and India, of course, has refused to join just as it refused to join China’s Belt and Road initiative. This was prescient because it has severely stressed or bankrupted those who have.

India, under Modi, since 2014, has been joining and participating in other regional meetings of organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). These are influential, but not subject to outright Chinese domination. It is also making every effort in BIMSTEC, particularly with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the successor, more or less to SAARC, that has been stymied by Pakistan. Relations with Nepal too are getting better with its infatuation with Chinese Communism on the decline.

India is trying hard to reduce its trade with, and investment from, China. Moves like the licencing of the manufacture of laptops and other electronic items is a step in this direction.

Given the eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation of over 50,000 troops with massive deployment of military equipment on each side along the Line of Actual Control (LaC), the relationship between India and China is not good.

Intrusions and illegal holding of perceived Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh, actual skirmishes and clashes in Ladakh and in Arunachal Pradesh, make up an adverse list, alongside Chinese training, arming and funding of multiple insurgencies in India. Chinese encouragement of Pakistani terrorism is also a huge problem, as is its blocking of Indian initiatives against terrorists in the UN. China has also blocked Indian membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

Chinese companies that have been operating in India have been caught evading taxes and breaking rules. Most Chinese companies are now banned from making investments in India. China itself has also broken international trading rules after joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

Indian diplomacy has been candid in stating the relationship with China is at present not normal and cannot be given the circumstances. Even today China is regularly menacing the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan in its near neighbourhood.

Against this backdrop, the possibility of a bilateral meeting at Johannesburg between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping is unlikely and rather pointless.

However, both are conducting many bilateral meetings with the other BRICS members and over 40 invited countries, many of whom want to join BRICS.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Johannesburg also called for the building of a ‘resilient supply chain’ a diplomatic code also used by the Americans to reduce dependence on China.

China, on its part complained rather bitterly of US ‘hegemony’, and hostility towards the poorer countries of the Global South. While this may seem incongruous in a BRICS Summit, perhaps it is trying to claw-back some vestiges of its global image that has taken a severe battering of late.

Not only is China regarded as the villain of the piece with regard to the global Covid pandemic that has taken millions of lives, but its plummeting economy, huge unemployment, collapsing companies, and chronic belligerence has  put off most of the world. African countries have been expelling the Chinese for their arrogant, racist, and predatory ways. Most of the world is losing faith with China’s ambitions given its sharp decline.

The only economy that is growing strongly amongst the five present members of BRICS is India’s. And India has apparently persuaded the other two present, namely Brazil’s Lula da Silva and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa to agree to a process for expanding the BRICS line-up first. 

The Shanghai-based BRICS Bank, formally known as the New Development Bank, has failed to rival the major US backed multilateral lending institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The Asian Development Bank (ADB) and others.

India is a darling to these institutions, with its approximately 7 % GDP growth year on year. It is called a ‘beacon of hope’ in a world troubled economically at present.

President Biden has stated that he considers India to be the most important country to him, in the backdrop of this BRICS Summit, and will be visiting New Delhi shortly between 7-9 September for the G 20 Summit, along with a host of other heads of government. His announced agenda at the G20 is to condemn Russia for the Ukraine War.

 This 15^th Summit of BRICS was preceded by Prime Minister Modi pointing out the need to identify new areas of cooperation.

Prime Minister Modi will go on to Greece on the 25^th from South Africa for a day long visit on his return path to India. Greece is offering a gateway to Europe for India, even as it has been interacting closely with rival China in recent years after its economy went bankrupt and was rescued by its membership of the EU and massive new loans.

Like the rivalry in BRICS and SCO, India and China will continue to compete with each other in the global arena, and in economy-oriented organisations like these. This will have multiple effects on the geopolitics of the world, but India’s economy, much smaller than China as present, is assured of medium to long-term success. This is mainly because of an alignment with America and its Western allies that give it an edge in security matters. Its largely aatmanirbhar economy, backed by strong domestic demand and proportionate exports, is poised to make it become the 3^rd biggest in the world by 2028-2030. After that its numbers won’t stay very much smaller than those of the Chinese economy, presently at No.2.

(1,446 words)

August 23^rd, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

A Shambolic Debut On the National Stage For the Opposition Alliance of 26 Parties

Now that the Monsoon Session of Parliament has ended in the old building while the new one awaits use after its inauguration; we could talk about the A.L.L.I.A.N.C.E coming-out party. It took the form of a farcical No Confidence Motion that was a damp squib.

The ostensible reason was to force the prime minister to speak out on the troubles in Manipur. What the Opposition alliance did not bargain for is that the treasury benches would wipe the floor with them on matters including Manipur, but much more in an adverse vein particularly against the Congress. Home Minister Amit Shah’s two-hour explanation with detailed facts and figures on what is being done by the government in Manipur gave a comprehensive report not only to the ill-prepared opposition but the nation at large.

Much hysteria was displayed by this opposition with its single point agenda, including some trademark childishness from the SC restored Rahul Gandhi, and a banshee like performance by Mohua Moitra from the TMC. There was another bull-in-a-china shop effort by Derek O Brien from the self-same party also, but this was in the Rajya Sabha.

The prime minister spoke last in reply, and rendered a masterful and magisterial speech of over one-and-a-half hours. This was on parliamentary history, the shameless projection of the ‘parivaar’ over every other contributor towards nation-building, the consistent shortcomings of the Congress Party in its handling of the North East, the accomplishments of his own government in nine years, the naked power-hungriness of the opposition alliance, and Manipur specifically too. It was so searing in its content that the Opposition alliance shuffled out of the Lok Sabha like so many convicts in a chain gang. They came back for the voting, but they might as well not have bothered.

Adhiranjan Chowdhury, once a fiery street speaker cum rabble-rouser from West Bengal, and since a prominent leader in the Lok Sabha for Congress, was suspended till a Privileges Committee goes into the matter. Likewise, AAP’s Raghav Chadha, who apparently forged the signatures of four MPs from other parties for an intended Select Committee that never took off.  Derek O Brien was suspended too, but allowed back in later by the Rajya Sabha Chairman Jagdeep Dhankar.

The entire three-day tamasha was televised on most Indian news channels and analysed every evening by expert panellists and despairing anchors who might have hoped for a less unequal fight. As usual, the vitriol continued through the wounded Congress spokespersons.

After it was all over in parliament, one broadly pro-Congress channel even put out a confused poll. Because the polled, who might have been opposition supporters, were still unable to say much in favour of the opposition alliance. I.N.D.I.A is scheduled to meet again in Mumbai at the end of August, but it is likely the AAP will skip it.

What did this No-Confidence Vote exercise achieve? It certainly made the government and the treasury benches look much better than their accusers.

Will it contribute towards the winnability of the I.N.D.I.A Alliance in the forthcoming assembly elections and the general elections in 2024? Doubtful. It was, in fact a disastrous first outing.

The return of Rahul Gandhi to parliament as a for-the-time-being restored MP, complicates the pitch for other prime ministerial aspirants in the opposition alliance. Nitish Kumar has reportedly managed to secure the post of Convenor as a stepping stone for his own bid. There are doubts being expressed by some analysts on the cohesion of I.N.D.I.A till the general elections. In Bihar, the JDU/JDS combine may not sustain in one piece. Will both bits stick with the opposition alliance if a break up does occur?

The Congress needs to up its Lok Sabha seat tally to at least 100 MPs in order to become the undeniable anchor. While it is the only party with pan-India recognition in the combine, its electoral prospects are not inspiring. Rahul Gandhi’s visibility may have increased since the Bharat Jodo Yatra but his vision for India is a retrograde one. He merely wants to preserve the Nehruvian Idea of India. His own contribution seems to a sharp tilt towards the minorities, including the extremists amongst them. The Congress Party links with China and Pakistan are also exposed and fairly obvious. Rahul Gandhi is travelling to Europe once again in September to drum up support from more anti-Modi forces. He will, no doubt, also describe conditions in Indian democracy in the most dire terms.

It is unlikely that the Indian voter, beyond the Congress’ fairly narrow supporter base, will take kindly to this strategy. More so, when it is contrasted with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly effective global diplomatic outreach, supported ably by the External Affairs Minister, and increasingly, the National Security Adviser.

India’s continued rise as an economic power and reliable partner is being seen as an alternative to a declining China, for trade, manufacturing, and defence purposes. Even the leadership of BRICS, started originally alongside China. Russia, Brazil, is turning more towards India for its future direction and induction of likely additional members, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. BRICS is no longer keen to push the Chinese agenda, if it ever was, with its aim to dominate America, while others in the combine were expected to fall-in with it.

The lack of a national and global vision in the opposition alliance beyond the overthrow of the BJP and NDA is going to hurt its prospects. It sometimes talks of unemployment, price rise, per capita income, cronyism, but does not sustain it. Neither does it have any solutions. It bases its campaigns on AAP style freebies, which resonate with the poor in the voting public. But they invariably have trouble fulfilling promises and sustain development if voted to power.

However, ten years in power at the Centre is bound to throw up a certain amount of anti-incumbency for the ruling NDA. On the plus side, Narendra Modi’s personal popularity, charisma, and commitment to the nation, will counterbalance this. Prime Minister Modi, who will be 75 in 2025, is in good health and likely to complete another five-year term in office to execute his vision. He has repeatedly pledged that India will be the No.3 economy in the world by 2028, and will do everything possible to keep the momentum towards this objective.

At present, the chances of a third consecutive term with a majority in favour of the BJP and the NDA seem very bright.       

(1,074 words)

August 12^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18

Gautam Mukherjee