Will Additional Global Conflict In Europe & Between China And America Catapult India Forward?

What is the Space-Eye-view of our situation on earth? Or can one only see a golf ball sized planet in just this one galaxy?  

Space is the new frontier. Exploration, intended exploitation of minerals, the search for water, territory fit to inhabit, possible space wars, all loom large. It is shaping up to be much more than sending up satellites to watch the earth and facilitate communications. More than the to-ing and fro-ing of tourists on spaceships and putting in space stations for research.

Are we actually in a space race from the same earthly motivations of power play? That same ‘March of Nations’ postulated by the complex 19th century German thinker and philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831).  His Hegelian Dialectic, about the rubbing against each other, of nations, was a far grander concept than that of the unemployed theoretician Marx. Karl Marx (1818-1883), lifted the concept of the Hegelian Dialectic and corrupted it, into a mere tussle between Labour and Capital.

Hegel said the history of the world is moved forward by different dominant nations at different times. Certainly, we can see how the once mighty Romans did so. And more recently, the British Empire, growing ever more extensive till the sun never set on it. But right within it, at its zenith, the seeds of change were planted. This was in the reign of Queen Victoria.

The royal families of Europe were populated by the several Germanic sons and daughters of Queen Victoria and their cousins. Of these, a notable rivalry grew between her heir-apparent and eldest son Bertie, The Price of Wales (1841-1910), who became Edward VII after her, and the last Kaiser of Germany, Wilhelm II (1859 -1941), who reigned from 1888 to 1918, when he had to abdicate.

Germany wanted dominion over Western Europe and the high seas of the world. And after Queen Victoria died in 1901, at the end of a reign spanning 63 years and 216 days, this rivalry sharpened, as both countries prepared for war.

This rivalry was neither ordinary or harmless. It was reminiscent of that described in the monumental Indian epic, the Mahabharata. The one that destroyed the Kshatriya regal domination forever.

There was enormous jealousy in Germany, and a desire to turn the tables on Britain. This turned into friction in the first decade of the 20^th century when Bertie became Edward VII. WWI came as early as 1914, with the spark ignited at Sarajevo when Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir presumptive to the throne of Austria, was assassinated by Gavrilo Princip, a 19 year-old member of Young Bosnia.

The events that followed in rapid succession  would change the entire landscape of Europe irrevocably.

Besides the Archduke, the first of the European royals to leave the stage was another cousin of Edward VII, the absolute monarch, Tsar of the Russias, Nicholas II.

Tsar Nicholas II, the last of the Romanovs, ruled from 1894, till he was overthrown (1917), and assassinated with his entire family by the members of the Bolshevik Revolution (1918). This was a profound development, because Imperial Russia was the largest and richest country in Europe.

The fun-loving Bertie, almost forever the Prince of Wales, became Edward VII but not for long. His short reign of just under a decade did not permit him to personally witness the start of WWI, or the deposition and murder of his cousin Nicholas.

The period from the dawn of the 20^th century, saw cataclysmic changes for the old order. It went on right till the end of WWII in 1945. In these 45 years, the world order was altered drastically. Millions of people of all races and creeds from Europe and the Empire were killed in the two world wars. And for both wars, the March of Nations chose Germany as the main protagonist.  

1901-45 witnessed the end of agrarianism as the basis of the world economy. It decimated the ranks of the aristocracy that generally led in war from the front. It ended inflation that had stayed incomprehensibly rock solid at just 4% over a hundred years. It practically finished the gold standard. It buried slavery and colonialism. It heralded the death of Empire and the Imperial Age.

In short, it ushered in the take-over of a much more egalitarian, democratic, industrial and mercantilist era, based on new products and technology seen for the first time. The pulse of the world quickened, and the globe began to grow smaller.

America became the greatest, most powerful, and wealthy country in the world. The post WWII order held for decades, with the Western and Soviet Blocks competing for dominance. This was surely the third coming of the March of Nations, with America emerging as the dominant global power.  

The challenge from the Soviet block eventually proved unequal to the task, as the Warsaw Pact broke down, and the Berlin Wall was demolished, before the USSR itself was dismantled.

Communism revived though, via the rise of China, aided and abetted for decades by America, creating its own Frankenstein monster in the process.

But the promise of the Communist Internationale and World dominion died early with the demise of the Soviet Union. But does China under Xi Jinping, a revivalist Mao Zedong in temperament, realise it? In this hubris, like that of Kaiser Wilhelm II and Adolf Hitler, lie the seeds of its own destruction. The March of Nations has caused China to rub up against the West, but it will be lost at sea because it is not destined to rule the world.

The baton truly passed from a Pax Britannica, after a paroxysm of blood, to a Pax Americana. Both echo a long ago Pax Romana that lasted 200 years between 27 BC and 180 AD centred in Rome in the West, before passing on to Constantinople for another 200 years.

We are now on the brink of a new phase of the Hegelian march, minus China in the ascendant. The nuclear deterrent is still holding since WWII, but the first war in Europe has arrived in over seventy years. This is not with the USSR, as might have been expected, but its rump, the Russian Republic.

This is proving most debilitating for the NATO/EU/allied countries. Inflation is rampant. Growth is down. Unemployment stalks the streets. This even though it is a proxy war via the Ukrainians. The stubborn Russian Federation refuses to yield. The West won’t give it what it wants. But the prolongation of the conflict is drawing Russia ever closer into a Chinese embrace.

The most destabilising and dangerous thing about the war in Ukraine is that it  ostensibly goes  much beyond it. The West is determined to destroy Russian power once and for all. While Russia, a huge country and a formidable military power, in alliance with China, its satellite North Korea and a much-debilitated Pakistan, is doing its best to resist.

Pakistan, long used to being subsidised by America and then China, will be the first of the three to break into pieces, because of its enormous mountain of debt. This could come even before the end of the present decade.

China will lose its proxy partner in its battle for domination of India, weakening it. This, even as its own economy, grown from nothing by its dependence on exports to the West is also reeling under enormous debt. The Chinese economy is destined to keep getting worse as the world no longer trusts it. Its supply chains are moving to other countries, including India.

The resultant economic turmoil amongst the people of China will cause them to challenge the CPC once again. This time it won’t be easy to put down. This unrest could lead to a break up of China as well, starting with all territories beyond the Han heartland. This is likely in the early 2030s.

But perhaps not before China tries to dominate the situation by going to war with America. The spark will probably be lit over its attempted invasion of Taiwan and blockading of the South and East China Seas.   

No nuclear weapons will still be used because of its guaranteed zero-sum game.

China will, of course, lose the conventional war with America and its allies which include the QUAD, AUKUS and NATO.

Russia will descend into a less influential power post this debacle, with the loss of its Chinese ally, just as the West intends.

India meanwhile will develop into a substantial military power over the next decade, and be able to defend its borders against China and Pakistan. The latter may also attempt another war, egged on by China. But this will only hasten its break-up. PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan will return to the Indian fold. America will diplomatically, via its intelligence services, and militarily, back India, along with its Western allies, in taking over PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. Not only do the territories belong to it in the first place, but America will back India in delivering a body blow to both Pakistan and China. This would be accomplished without America having to put its boots on the ground.

China’s CPEC, already in economic trouble, will fail with the loss of PoK. The Siachen Glacier and Chinese roads to Tibet will be compromised. The damaging of access to Tibet will be the beginning of its eventual liberation in the 2030s.

The shape of things to come is evident, as India is being created into a sophisticated fighting force by the West with its liberal transfer of high technology in defence. It is also being supported in other areas such as semiconductors and Artificial Intelligence. This will certainly strengthen India by filling in the gaps and chinks.  For the West, it will place a formidable fighting force across the bows of a belligerent China that has fought no real wars.

India will participate in and oversee the defence of the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Malacca Straits. It will join hands with the QUAD/AUKUS and France to defend  South Asia  and the Asia-Pacific.

When all this is over in less than a decade from today, India will truly emerge as a legitimate super power. Will it be leading the March of Nations?  It will certainly reach No.3 economy status, or is it No.2, with a vast increase both in GDP and influence. America will retain its position at No.1 and its technological ascendancy in the world.

The intervening period will be dominated by the BJP in power throughout, carried over the threshold in 2024 by the visionary and charismatic Narendra Modi.

Longer term, the present challenges to its emergence as a Hindu Rashtra that carries its minorities with humanity and justice will fall away for good under his successors.

(1,787 words)

July 29^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

 

 

NDA Vs I.N.D.I.A. Is Majoritarian Nationalism Plus Economic Prosperity Against Liberal Minorityism & Classic Socialism

 

While the film version of pink and sky-blue hued Barbie is trumping Oppenheimer in the United States box office takes, it is Oppenheimer, the biographical thriller written and directed by Christopher Nolan, that is leading in India.

The reference to a phrase from the Bhagavad Gita, the revered Hindu text that Oppenheimer read compulsively to overcome his moral dilemma at becoming the instrument of so much death and destruction, may have something to do with the interest in India.

Both Robert Oppenheimer, a Jew, and Werner Heisenberg, gentile, a Lutheran Christian, set about building the world’s first nuclear bomb using their knowledge quantum physics. 

Heisenberg was one of the youngest people to win the Nobel prize for Physics in 1931. He had authored The Uncertainty Principle on the behaviour of sub-atomic particles in 1927.

Robert Oppenheimer succeeded in building the atomic bomb at the head of a crack team of scientists tucked away in Los Alamos, New Mexico, on behalf of America and its Allies. His motivation, ostensibly was to end the war, in which he definitely succeeded, though the question remains whether the use of an atomic bomb, or two of them, was actually necessary to this end. The decision was President Harry S Truman’s, a former general himself, and not Oppenheimer’s, of course.

Heisenberg worked on behalf of Nazi Germany, but was apparently a patriot and not a Nazi. He could not, or it is suggested, deliberately did not, build the Nazi bomb, even though the Nazi programme started first in 1938. Heisenberg and his team of scientists steered their work towards peaceful nuclear reactors to produce energy instead. It is also suggested that the resources needed, beyond 1200 tons of uranium supplied from occupied Belgium, could not be provided in 1942, when the go-ahead for the bomb was received, by a beleaguered Germany. 

Werner Karl Heisenberg lived on after the war till 1976, when he died in Munich, regarded till the end as a brilliant man of science. A man who did not build the bomb out of conviction, though his theoretical science, in the very home of quantum physics, was ahead of all others.

This, while Julius Robert Oppenheimer, in America, who also began his mission to build the bomb in 1942, became a haunted man, a pariah as ‘the father of the atomic bomb’. This, after the extent of the devastation wrought from his deadly invention became known.

Oppenheimer was always suspected of Communist sympathies, and this combined with his post-war advocacy against nuclear proliferation, the development of the hydrogen bomb, the nuclear arms race with the Soviet Union, and so on, became a basis for the American power establishment to turn their backs on him.

They also threw him out of coveted university and organisational positions. Oppenheimer still continued to lecture, write and work in physics till the end. He died at the age of 62 in 1967, having been largely reinstated in the graces of the American government, by 1963. He remains, in his legacy, one of the most important figures of the 20^th century.  

Oppenheimer’s success led to the dropping of two nuclear bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in Japan by the Americans with months of his proof-of-concept explosion in the Los Alamos desert named Trinity. This effectively led to the surrender of Imperial Japan. Nazi Germany also surrendered in 1945, thereby bringing WWII to a close.

It is seen therefore, from this revived and current tale, how closely success and failure resemble each other.

India is now on a fated path towards the next general election, most likely between March and May 2024. The next eight to ten months will determine whether the Indian electorate gives a third consecutive term to Narendra Modi and the 38-member National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Or will it choose the 27-party opposition combine newly named Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.). The NDA currently has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha and a near majority in the Rajya Sabha too. The opposition combine has approximately 144 seats in the Lok Sabha. Another 91 MPs who sit across the aisle from the NDA are neutral though they often vote along with the NDA on a case-to-case basis.

If the NDA is elected with a clear majority once again for the third consecutive time, then the present policies will receive the boost of continuity. Their plus points principally are a robust, mostly majoritarian nationalism, attention to national defence, infrastructure development, manufacturing, trade, welfarism, and steady, all round economic growth. Inclusiveness, as in Sabka Vikas, Sabka Prayas, is a stated objective, but while government programmes are not discriminatory, it remains to be seen how much of an electoral draw this stance engenders in the polls.

On the other side, the opposition combine is a rickety construct of contradictions united  mostly in its desire to oust the present dispensation. It is something of a do-or-die situation for this combine which accounts for one unrest or the other in these months up to the elections. There are foreign forces in alignment with this opposition who do not relish the continuance of a strong Hindu nationalist government.

While largely made up of regional parties, some of whom such as the DMK, TMC, AAP, JDU/RJD are in power - in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab and Bihar respectively, most are not. There are multiple contradictions. The CPI(M) are opposed to the TMC in West Bengal, but are in power in Kerala. The Congress is in power in Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and are a coalition partner in Jharkhand. This, could, of course, grow in the forthcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere to be held before the general elections. How many seats this large combine gets in the new Lok Sabha, and from where, will determine the prime ministerial candidate. Congress is clearly ahead of all others, and will be, if all goes well, in pole position to nominate the future prime minister, should I.N.D.I.A. come within striking distance of a cobbled-together majority. It will work on a common minimum programme.

Past experience shows that unless there is an anchoring party with about 150 seats, such coalitions rapidly collapse in a matter of a few months. Besides, should the NDA be forced to sit on the opposition benches, it will be hyperactive to try and bring the ruling coalition down at the earliest.

As for its economics and politics, it is certain to favour the minorities whose votes the opposition combine is likely to get in large numbers, and reward them with populist sops. This will affect the momentum of the economy but make for happier voters. Much of the liberal socialist ethos pushed aside by the NDA will be quickly restored.

Democracy works on the will of the people and therefore either continuity or change, including a change that seeks to go back a distance to what it considers first principles, will have to be accepted. The present wisdom suggests the opposition has little chance of coming to power, but the upset of 2004 when India was ostensibly shining cannot be forgotten.

 (1,184 words)

July 26^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Chandrayaan 3 Moonshot and French Bastille Day on Friday 14 July Are Momentous For India

India is decidedly going places. This is to the pain and horror of the poison press amongst the Leftists in the West. The garish desi dreamers who want a return to the pretentious past of the rosebud wearing Nehru are also frustrated. And, of course, the disgruntled types from our second largest majority, who look like they just ate the Bhut Jalokia, said to be the hottest pepper in the world.

Fact is, India under Hindu Nationalist Narendra Modi is not a communal morass. It has better fish to fry, and is indeed going places.

A Goldman Sachs survey, driven by the idea that a young growing population signals prosperity, says the Indian GDP will be at $52.5 trillion in 2075, putting it at No.2, behind China, but up from the 3^rd position it is likely to secure by 2028 or 2030.

And over the next two decades, or 2043, ‘the dependency ratio of India will be one of the lowest among regional economies’, according to the report.

And the enhanced prosperity won’t come from discoveries of oil, gold, or other natural resources, but from capital investment, innovation, technology, and the demographic dividend. 

In fact, the decline of the West is due to depleting and ageing population and lower productivity, according to the report.

One clue on the billions and trillions to come to India, is in low to high end chip manufacturing and testing. Other promising areas involve digital and artificial intelligence universes.

India could well become the next global semiconductor hub, replacing the always under-threat Taiwan. Taking chip making away to America renders it too expensive. The semiconductor Industry in India is being set up by the Americans, the Taiwanese, the Indians themselves, the Europeans, The South Koreans, amongst others. It will cater to India’s own gargantuan appetite, and export millions of chips in the bargain, made at a competitive cost, and without any geopolitical worries attendant. Many countries with which India has poor balance of payment problems, with will get sorted out by the export of these essential devices.

China will however still be No.1 in 2075 with $ 57 trillion in GDP, having overtaken America by 2035, says the report. But remember this 2035 date has been pushed back several times already, and China, with its ageing population due to its One Child Policy is not very well placed to achieve this forecast. It will have slowed growth for at least three decades to come. Its belligerence is also counter-productive to retention of a Chinese supply chain. Its chief buyers in the West, collectively accounting for some $ 3 trillion in exports per annum, may not be able, or choose to, sustain such numbers going forward. And Chinese monopolies on minerals may well be substituted from other sources.

The Euro area, meaning Western Europe, will be collectively at $30.3 trillion, says the report, and America will be at No.3 with $51.5 trillion. 

Japan will be at a mere $ 7.5 trillion, quite lost in the rankings along with Russia even further down the list.

But, young population advantages apart, how the report, authored principally by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas thinks Pakistan will be a $ 12 trillion plus economy, ranked at No.6 by then, is a mystery! Of course, the big caveat is that this can only happen, given, ‘the appropriate policies and institutions’. Pakistan today is all but bankrupt, with no way out of its predicament.

It is more probable that America, because of its innate ability to innovate and develop technology better than any other country, and its formidable military, will still be No.1 in 2075.

Coming back to the present, July 14^th, Friday, 2023, is turning out to be another momentous day for India.  It will witness the scheduled launch for the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO’s) Chandrayaan 3, four tons of spacecraft, at 2.35 pm.  The Prime Minister won’t be in Sriharikota to witness the launch, powered by ISRO’s most powerful two ton rocket this time.

He will be in Paris on 13-14 July as the Chief Guest for Bastille Day. Prime Minister Modi, will be accompanied not only by his senior staff but a 280 member tri-services armed forces contingent that will march in the parade. Three Indian Rafale fighters will fly-past the Champ Elysees. This attendance at France’s National Day celebration also marks 25 years of the India-France strategic partnership.

Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to sign several pathbreaking defence equipment and complete technology transfer agreements in Paris. These include the acquisition of 26 Rafale Naval aircraft for India’s newest aircraft carrier, a 110-130 KiloNewton Safran engine with complete technology transfer for India’s AMCA MK2 Stealth fighters,  another engine  to be jointly developed for India’s light combat helicopters, three  more Scorpene Class conventional submarines to be built in India as soon as possible, and technology collaboration in a joint venture on the latest French Barracuda Class Nuclear submarines to be built in India.

In the backdrop of discussions on whether to grant Ukraine ‘de facto’ NATO membership, it is likely that the India-France Strategic Relationship may be enhanced after discussions. This, with specific reference to the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific areas. France has a lot of territory and overseas citizenry in the Indo-Pacific.

For India, an enhanced Indo-French Strategic Partnership will be in addition to its membership in QUAD. For France, it will formalise its role in the region where it has bases in the Indian Ocean and regularly patrols it.

India has begun repair and refurbish some categories of US Naval ships in its ports, and could do the same for the French Navy as well. From the point of the Chinese threat posed in the area, this Indo-French cooperation will boost peace and tranquillity.

India is also creating a new transshipment base in the Nicobar Islands and enhancing it tri-services and naval presence and facilities in the Andaman and Nicobar region with its headquarters in Port Blair. The entire series of islands are strategic and overlook the Malacca Straits, a vital shipping route for China. Participating in this development could enhance trade and technology exchanges between our two nations.

On the way back from France, Prime Minister Modi will stop over in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) a I2 U2 Partner. He will meet, to meet with its President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Enhanced two-way investments, technological and defence cooperation, are likely to follow. Similar indications emerged when Prime Minister Modi stopped in Egypt on the way back from his highly successful visit to America recently.

India is also about to land on the moon. Chandrayaan I, from 2008, plunged a probe ‘impacter’ into the moon’s surface near its South Pole, and first made mention of water on the moon.

Chandrayaan 2, from September 2019, could not soft land due to some software malfunctions. It caused its lander, the 145 kg Vikram, (named after India’s space effort pioneer Vikram Sarabhai), to come close, but eventually crash land on the moon’s surface.

Many learnings based on what when wrong in 2019 have been incorporated, according to current ISRO Chairman Dr. Somanath S. The moon landing of the new improved successor pod, that will set down on the moon, is scheduled for August 28^th.

It will take over a month to get into the appropriate moon orbit on the 23^rd or 24^th of August. Once successfully completed, India will become only the 4^th country after America, Russia, and China to land on the moon’s surface. It is the first that will alight just 70 degrees away from the moon’s South Pole.  All the others have chosen to land nearer the Moon’s equator. On the poles, there is a greater likelihood of finding water molecules, and many other minerals.

The new improved Vikram will soft land by daylight, a moon-day being 14 earth days long. This will enable the solar powered rover to move around more, collect scientific data and samples via its instruments on board, and take pictures.

The night temperatures on the moon are an estimated minus 180-230 degrees centigrade. And though the batteries on the rover and lander have been designed to withstand such extreme conditions, they could still fail in time. 

India’s ISRO that has already sent a spacecraft to orbit Mars, will work with  America’s NASA to establish a space-station, and possibly a manned moon landing soon. Like the defence manufacturing establishment in India it is collaborating with the private sector and spawning new start-ups.

India’s journey towards becoming a developed country has well and truly begun, and most Western countries are now keen to treat it as an ally and strategic partner in the South-Asian, Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific theatre.

(1,451 words)

For week commencing July 17^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Build Mandirs, Win Assemblies, Break Opposition Parties, Implement UCC: What Will Work Best For General Elections 2024?

Building up to general elections between March and May 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes to the fray with quite an arsenal.

These are diverse and potent-the economy, defence preparedness and manufacturing, aatmanirbhar, industry, commerce, welfare including rural roads, electricity connections, water on tap, gas for cooking, subsidies sent directly to recipients, political savvy, infrastructure, agricultural modernisation and conveniences, minimum support prices, improving storage facilities, digital economies, stepped up international diplomacy, anti-corruption, promotion of Hindutva, inclusiveness under Sabka Vikas, reform and more reform, modernisation, connectivity-physically through Gati Shakti and digitally via 5G and satellite. The list is almost endless.

However, the reason why BJP came to power was its ideology, its championing of Hindutva as an alternative to the Nehruvian Idea of India. This cannot be lost sight of as it goes forth to win its third successive term.

The credibility and impact of constructing the grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya on the very spot believed to be the birthplace of Lord Ram, by early 2024, cannot probably be overstated.

The whole city of Ayodhya is also being transformed to suit, with new star hotels, conveniences, internal roads revamped, as well as excellent connectivity by road, train and air to reach the ancient place.  A very large number of pilgrims and tourists are expected and this will favourably impact the economy of the entire area.

It has taken over a century of struggle in recent times to come to this point. It is this very Ayodhya movement from the 1980s onwards that propelled the BJP into power.

The Hindutva effort is still ongoing - in the Gyanvapi Mosque/ Shiva Temple litigation at Varanasi. Its revered Shivling has now been found in the mosque’s wazoo area. This litigation follows on from the commissioning of the neighbouring grand Kashi-Vishwanath corridor, executed by the Modi government. A number of the ancient Ghats are now also being renovated. Varanasi or Kashi is receiving extensive connectivity, development and decongestion.

There is also ongoing litigation regarding the Shahi Idgah Mosque which has encroached on 13.23 acres of the land belonging to the Mathura Temple, built to mark the most holy Sri Krishna Janmabhoomi.

Freeing these two ancient temples in particular from the mosques that have been built since, have been long-standing pledges of the BJP. Progress here, in either or both cases, could provide fresh frisson to the Hindutva cause.  

Can all this occur before the general elections in 2024? If not, a High Court verdict, or even more ongoing favourable remarks from the lower Courts, should suffice for the election campaigns.

The BJP has also improved connectivity and infrastructure at the major pilgrimage centres unabated.

The Hindus believe these are all vital steps towards the establishment of India as a Hindu Rashtra, making it the only declared Hindu country in the world, after suitable amendments are made to the Constitution. They expect the BJP to accomplish this at the appropriate time.  

Hindu Rashtra does not mean intolerance for the second largest majority and other small minorities, nor any interference in their right to worship. This has been made clear by the early Hindutva ideologues. Hindu ruled India has always been tolerant and pluralistic since ancient times. This cannot be said of the Mughals and other Islamic rulers, and the Portuguese Catholics. The Protestant British used evangelicals and priests to convert many people, particularly the poor, but fortunately this was not at the point of a sword.

 In recent times, the demand to do away with the form of twisted secularism that has been used since independence to discriminate against the Hindu majority has grown insistent.

The Uniform Civil Code (UCC), likely to be implemented at last, is welcomed by the Hindu masses, as well as Muslim women, particularly from the 85% of Muslims that constitute the Pasmanda groups. This is borne out by their stepping forward to express their support. By the same token the reactionary bodies amongst the Muslim orders have reared up in protest, along with some of the opposition parties like the DMK.   

If the UCC is passed by parliament after discussion and debate, it will jolt the hold of the unelected All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), elements from Jammu & Kashmir such as Mehbooba Mufti and her PDP Party, various fatwa issuing organisations like the Deoband Seminary and the Jama Masjid in Delhi, the Sayyids, and other higher caste Muslim men. 

Quite a few of the higher caste educated Muslim women however, chafing under discriminatory Shariah practices, have come out in support of the UCC.

 If the UCC is implemented, the BJP will have successfully driven a wedge through the middle of Muslim otherness. Since the second largest majority is now some 200 million strong, this will be a very significant development. Ironically, many Muslim countries including Pakistan, do not practice Shariah Law.

Other minorities should have fewer problems with the UCC, even less than political parties out to misrepresent the matter.

The Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Chhattisgarh coming up shortly will be hotly contested.

Opposition unity has just been dealt a severe blow in Maharashtra with Ajit Pawar splitting the NCP. Will he deliver at least 36-37 MLAs in his camp to meet the requirements of the anti-defection law? He says he has the support of over 40.  

With 48 seats to the Lok Sabha coming from Maharashtra, it is second only to Uttar Pradesh.

There is some consternation in the Shinde Shiv Sena over this development, but there are several unfilled ministerial berths that should reassure its MLAs. The chances of 16 members of the Shinde faction including Eknath Shinde himself being disqualified by the BJP Speaker under the anti-defection law is slight.  

This NCP split has put a big dent in the confidence of Opposition unity.

Assuming that the Maharashtra ‘triple engine sarkar’ moves ahead without derailment, it puts the spotlight next on Bihar.

Forever restless, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar reportedly wants to move back to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). He might use the recent corruption prosecution against Tejaswi Yadav, his deputy, as a pretext. He did it once before in 2017, so why not now?

Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Its assembly presently consists of 243 seats, with the Rashtriya Janata Dal(RJD) leading with 75 seats, the BJP with 74, the Janata Dal United (JDU) with 43, Congress with 19, and the Communist Party Of India Marxist Leninist (CPI(ML)) with 12. Other small parties together make up 20 seats.  

Union Home Minister Amit Shah and the BJP chief election strategist has stopped swearing that the doors of the BJP will forever be closed for Nitish Kumar. Splitting the ranks of the JDU/RJD coalition, could precipitate an election if Nitish Kumar cannot carry all of his flock. However, the JDU MLAs reportedly want to go back to the BJP alliance. If all goes well, it is expected to provide a combined total of 117, tantalisingly close to the half way mark of 137. This would, of course cast another body blow to opposition unity.

Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka have their long festering fault lines too. In Karnataka, a 28 Lok Sabha MPs state, JD Kumaraswamy has already hinted at his willingness to ally with the BJP. What will be the stance of Congress’ DK Sivakumar and his followers?

 There is widely held perception that the NDA is most likely to win in 2024. However, others, mostly the ones left out, say that the voter does not like this hook or by crook method of toppling governments, and won’t vote for the BJP/NDA as a consequence. There is also rising concern that a number of tainted politicians facing corruption charges are being absorbed. The BJP is, and will be taking a calculated risk.

Elsewhere, The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) controlled by the Badal family, has indicated it wants to return to the NDA. The AAP, in power in Punjab is facing increasing headwinds. SAD senses it could make a comeback.

Telangana may not fall into the grasp of the BJP by itself this December when the state goes to the polls, but the BJP tally should improve sharply. If however, there is an alliance with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), as is being alleged by Congress, they could form a winning coalition.

Andhra Pradesh also wants early elections at the same time as Telangana.

There is healthy growth in the economy. At nearly 7 % in GDP,  it is the fastest growth in any major economy, and there are substantial foreign exchange reserves approaching $ 600 billion.  

The unwieldy opposition caravan cannot match all this dynamism in the near term, if at all. This even if they had any ideas beyond old fashioned socialist freebies with no regard for revenue generation to pay for them. However, they are harping on price rise and unemployment with some justification.

All in all, the months leading up to general elections in 2024 will see heightened political activity, with each side trying to turn the tables on the other.

(1,507 words)

For week starting July 10^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee