Monday, December 19, 2016

Is Modi Going To Ban Cash Donations To Political Parties?


Is Modi Going To Ban Cash Donations To Political Parties?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an impassioned campaign speech in Kanpur on December 19th , some six weeks before a slew of state  assembly elections are expected, has put the cat amongst the pigeons. 

He hinted at motivated opposition to his moves, and not only for the ‘notebandi’.

He said the Opposition also appeared to be against curbing cash funding of political parties, and holding all state elections together with the general elections once every five years.

The Prime Minister’s remarks on reforming political funding assume special significance, coming almost immediately after the Election Commission’s suggestion of restricting anonymous cash donations to just Rs. 2,000 each instead of the current cut-off at Rs.20,000.

Was the Prime Minister raising the topic because he may be thinking of amending the Income Tax law with regard to cash donations to political parties?

That this will resonate very well with the public is certain as most analysis indicts political funding as the main generator and depository of black money.
In his Kanpur speech, Narendra Modi said that the Opposition disrupted the functioning of the entire Winter Session of parliament so that no discussion on these important topics could take place.

By this he indicated his preference for consensus on such important changes, but with an opposition determined to back the status quo, the NDA may well have to use their majority in the Lok Sabha instead.

Also, it will be easy to implement as a money bill amendment to the relevant section of the IT Act.

In the tumultuous session of parliament just concluded, the government did manage to get a section added to the Income Tax Act, again as a money bill, with regard to people depositing black money after the demonetisation, and it being taxed at 50%.

The Finance Ministry also recently reacted to false news reports that all political donations were tax free, and their deposits into the bona fide bank accounts of political parties, even in the discontinued notes, would not even be scrutinised.

The government clarified that the tax exemption for political parties was in terms of the existing and relevant clauses in the Income Tax Act. But, even in this old provision, all political parties had to maintain books of accounts for every donation in cash or cheque, and records of its expenditure, duly certified by a chartered accountant.

Without this, the tax exemption would not apply. However, most commentators thought the special tax treatment to political parties and others like trusts and NGOs should now be done away with.

And the Prime Minister may now be voicing the peoples’ will, particularly with regard to the ending of cash donations to political parties.

The BJP has meanwhile also asked all its MPs to internally declare how much of the demonetised notes they had each deposited into their individual accounts after the cut-off date of November 8th.   

It appears, said the Prime Minister, that instead of working for the honest citizen and the poor, the Opposition was more interested in shielding the corrupt.

Prime Minister Modi said he was fully aware of the difficulties being faced by ordinary people all over the country due to shortage of new notes.

He reiterated that the situation would begin to ease after December 30th , as promised by him, after a period of 50 days from the initial announcement.
But while honest citizens were facing hardships, the Prime Minister acknowledged, the corrupt had managed to ‘purchase’ bank officials to convert their own money via the back door.

Here too, independent auditors have been called in at the urging of the RBI and the Finance Ministry to look into irregularities and pinpoint responsibility.

Prime Minister Modi positioned the BJP firmly against corruption in all its forms and thanked the people for their patience.  But by mentioning the sold-out bankers in his speech, he implied that they would not be spared.

Clearly this is a time of transformation for substantial gains expected by the government in the medium to long term. But benefits of demonetisation and related initiatives were meant for the honest citizenry only, said Modi.

He described many of the steps taken towards digital and cashless transactions and how the government is incentivising such usage both for the customer and the trader or service provider.

Modi was at pains to point out that the privileged and corrupt had been exposed by demonetisation and the coming days would reveal details of many of their financial misdeeds.

Many middle-men and facilitators such as jewellers are being caught with illicit currency and bullion every day by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), and other investigative agencies.

None of the corrupt would be spared, Modi said. And by this, he meant the privileged political class, never targeted before, as well.

It is a political class that has been long used to shielding each other from the laws of the land. This, whether they were in power or not, in the government or the opposition.

Or even if they had lost their elections now, but had been elected or nominated representatives of the people in the past.

To illustrate the point, the NDA government has had to evict over a hundred politicians and senior officials who had hung on to palatial government accommodation long after their terms in office ended. This they were able to do because of the collusion of the  previous governments.

There has always been, a different application of the laws of the land for various sections. A lenient treatment was meted out to those who had status, influence, and wealth. A heavier application of the laws altogether was reserved for the poor and powerless. And there was a virtual immunity for the mighty politician, bureaucrat, or judge, in, or out of office!

If Modi succeeds in changing this ethos, via his multiple reforms, for a more egalitarian approach, he will certainly bring about a revolution of modernity and enduring progress.

The public at the Kanpur rally seemed ecstatic with what Modi was saying, but uncertain too, because this is all uncharted territory.

Never in the history of independent India has such a cleansing been attempted.

The results to date are indeed unclear, but judging from the enthusiastic crowds listening to the Prime Minister, people are most hopeful.

A transformation of the Indian economy, its practices, and most importantly, the elected, nominated and official establishment, seems very much on the cards.

Reports are also coming in on substantial income tax reliefs for the middle classes in the forthcoming budget. While this may fall short of the abolition of direct taxes, it is nevertheless likely to be welcomed by all.

For: Nationalist Online English
(1,103 words)
December 19th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

Sunday, December 18, 2016

India's Military Deterrence: Iron Domes & Missiles First

India’s Military Deterrence: Iron Domes & Missiles First

If India’s Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) has succeeded at anything, it is in the developing of missiles. This stands out in contrast to the tardiness and failure in many of its other projects.  

‘Missile Man’ Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, kicked off India’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP). He did so in 1982, and went on to become President of the republic much later.

Nuclear missile systems already inducted into the armed forces began with the Prithvi surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and the naval variant Dhanush.
This was followed by the Agni I-III medium-to-long-range ballistic missile variants.

The Agni IV with a range of 3,500 Km. is at final stages of its test runs, and so is Agni V. There are also nuclear capable missiles from the K Series, developed for India’s first indigenous nuclear submarine Arihant.

Agni V is about to be inducted into the Indian Army. When this happens, India will join the US, China, Britain and France, as the only countries with the technology to manufacture  Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).

This Indian ICBM is ‘canisterised’ and road-worthy. The Agni V costs about $7 million each. It can carry a payload of 1,500 kg of nuclear warheads. It has a range of at least 5,000 km using three stage solid fuel engines.

The first test on Agni V was carried out in 2012, and again in 2013. The last one was in 2015. All were accurate and successful per specified performance parameters. Probably the final one is expected to take place any day now.

The Agni V can carry 2-10 multiple nuclear warheads meant for different targets simultaneously, separated by hundreds of kilometres.

This technology-multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV), has also been developed in-house.

The Agni V’s declared range of 5,000 Km. puts areas of northern China within reach. But logistics and the vulnerability of moving the 17.5 metre long 50 ton 2 metre diameter missile, might call for stationing some of them in strategically placed underground silos.

The Agni V was nevertheless designed specifically for transport by road with its ‘canister-launch missile system’. 

India has a no-first use policy. But the Agni V will provide it a devastating second-strike capability.

The Agni V and the Ashvin supersonic inceptor missile launched successfully in May 2016, are the latest illustrations of India’s indigenous military manufacturing capabilities.

Combined with India’s nuclear weapons, it is mainly the missile programme that is rearranging the strategic calculations vis a vis both Pakistan and China.

Other joint-venture conventional systems include the Mach 2 Brahmos supersonic cruise missile developed with Russian collaboration. And the Indo-Israeli long-range naval surface-to-air missile Barak 8.

India was debarred for years from accessing advanced missile building technology by the fledgling Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

This happened  from 1988, after the first Prithvi short-range ballistic missiles were test-fired. But the restrictions spurred the development of indigenous technology. And despite its slow but consistent success over the decades, India maintained a solid non-proliferation record throughout.

This has now ushered it into the presently 35 member MTCR, in June 2016. India can now freely acquire and share missile technology with other members.

The Chinese are eyeing the Agni V warily. They think it has a range of 8,000 km, making it capable of targeting a much wider arc. 

However, both China and Pakistan do have their versions of ‘Iron Dome’  missile shields in place to guard themselves at home. But, it is not inpenetrable. Neither are inceptor missiles foolproof.

War theatres have shown interceptors can only stop some of the incoming barrage, and often get confused between payloads and debris.

Then state-of-the-art US-made Patriot missiles with Israel could only stop 10% of earlier generation Scud missiles lobbed by Iraq. This was during the 1st Gulf War.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) too has done well in the development of satellites and satellite launching technology. Some of India’s tracking satellites are also capable of providing early warning on enemy missile attacks.

There have been considerable advances on missile shields since the 1st Gulf War. America has its THAAD’s. India has placed an order for Russia’s most advanced S-400 Triumf air defence missile system.

It already has other Russian-made missile defence systems in place to provide cover to six of its main cities, including Delhi.  DRDO is working on a secret weapon- the Kilo Ampere   Linear  Injector (Kali). It seeks to emit powerful pulses of Relativistic Elecctron Beams (REB) to destroy the electronics of incoming missiles, thereby stopping them in their tracks.

And so the critical cat and mouse technological one-upmanship goes on.

For: SirfNews
(762 words)
December 18th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

Friday, December 16, 2016

Foregone Conclusion At The House Of Tata

Foregone Conclusion At The House Of Tata

Cyrus Mistry likes using the phrase ‘foregone conclusion’, and well he might, because his is a battle between youth and age, one that the old cannot, by definition, hope to win, no matter how the initial chips fall.

He used it twice however, in the context of his unceremonious ouster occasioned by the Tata Sons’ brute majority in companies Tata Computer Services (TCS), and Tata Teleservices, recently.

But it is increasingly clear, that when Ratan Naval Tata (RNT), suddenly sacked Cyrus Mistry (CM), just 4 years into the job, at the end of October 2016, he not only further besmirched his own legacy, and threw Tata Sons up for grabs, but sealed his own fate at the helm of the Tata Trusts.

The shock decision immediately cast fresh aspersions on the 79 year old patriarch’s judgement. The construction ‘A’ lister Shapoorji Pallonji’s younger son Cyrus, is, after all, not only a familiar, but an insider.

He has been a director in Tata Sons from 2005. That was when CM succeeded to his father Pallonji Mistry’s board seat on his retirement, after soft-spoken decades as the legendary ‘Phantom of Bombay House’.

CM was, ironically, both a member of, and the selection committee’s unanimous hand-picked successor, after a global search that took it three  whole years. And this selection committee was chaired by none other than RNT himself.

But all this seems academic now. The coup-like nature of CM’s sacking, and the acrimony that has followed, has had several unprecedented consequences for the Tata Group.

Not the least of which is the likelihood that nobody worth his salt is going to take on Cyrus Mistry’s mantle, with a glowering 79 year-old, but far from retired RNT.

Nominally Chairman Emeritus till lately, he’s put on the gloves again, overseeing the Tata Group’s day-to-day activities, fighting pitched battles with CM and friends, all this in his dotage.

RNT pulled this caper off successfully in his first decade at the helm, forcing out satrap after JRD-era satrap, aided then, by friend-turned-foe Nusli Wadia. But, he may find, this time, his victories are pyrrhic, at best.

It is clear now that RNT never really let Cyrus work in an unfettered way. This partly because of a lack of trust that developed quickly between them. And partly because, he did not want the embarrassment of having some of his latter-day, less than financially sound acquisition and funding decisions, as it has turned out, to be reversed - the loss-makers hived off, and sold.

The irrationality of it is in that RNT still does not want the financial haemorrhaging to be stemmed, despite all the washing of dirty linen in public.
He rather wants to see that the distressed units are helped back into health, with fresh capital injections as necessary. RNT calls this the Tata way.

CM, perhaps not being a Tata, sees things differently, with less sentiment, and has been quite effective in improving the bottom-line over the last four years. 

This is pointed out also by several of his eminent supporters, for example  on the board of Indian Hotels. But it has involved some RNT era men, even favourites, being let go, and ‘peripheral’ concerns, some acquired by RNT, to be sold.

But now it has gone beyond philosophical and ego differences, with the decision of the sacking, and its contentious aftermath.

As CM has been ousted from the holding companies- Tata Sons and Tata Industries, it is logical that the aged RNT too must go, giving up his much too hands-on demeanour, and from the Tata Trusts too, so that he does not overwhelm the new inductee afresh.

So it is hardly surprising that six weeks on, on December 16th, after weeks of  damaging headlines and TV panel discussions, the media prominently reported that RNT would step down, by mid-2017, from all the Tata Trusts.

This, after inducting a successor in the interim, not necessarily a Tata, or even a Parsi.

RNT, along with his closest aide ‘Venkat’, and by implication, most of his other staunch loyalists, both on the trusts, and in the holding companies, will all have to go.

This, even as his predecessor JRD Tata had controlled the trusts for the two years he lived after handing over the Tata Sons mantle to RNT in 1993.
RNT promptly denied the media reports, though he conceded that moves are afoot to put in a succession plan.

But the motivated leak shows division and cracks, even in his internal ranks, for the first time since the fight began. This suggests his support from within is slipping away, in the face of behind-the-scenes pressures.

The Tata companies have lost nearly Rs. 100,000 crores in shareholder value.  In the fight, it is a clear divide between RNT and his mostly ageing cohorts, and the much younger Mistry camp.

And while neither side is shying away from a prolonged and expensive series of legal battles, there is just so much the aged patriarch can hope to achieve.

When RNT dies, since there are no obvious heirs, in this not obviously family conglomerate, it is possible, even probable, that the Tata Group and the Tata Trusts will metamorphose into a post Tata, post- Parsi-led avatar.

That the induction of Cyrus Mistry in 2012, was an effort to at least keep the group Parsi in complexion at its apex, makes this falling out all the more ironic.

But while RNT must inevitably lose out in the bigger scheme of things, Cyrus Mistry with his family holding of 18% in Tata Sons, and the ability to acquire more stakes in the key public operating companies, will not let go in the post-RNT future.

Mistry’s side has been joined by several independent directors in key operating companies, most minority shareholders, and the formidable Nusli Wadia.

Nusli Wadia was reportedly JRD Tata’s first choice, to succeed himself but Wadia turned it down. He is the authoritative long-standing independent director in three important Tata companies, and Chairman of the Bombay Dyeing Group.

Wadia, outraged at Mistry’s ‘unjustified’ ouster, and the effort mounted  to dismiss him from  his directorships in key operating companies for supporting Mistry, is fighting back. 

He has filed a defamation suit with massive damages sought against RNT and several other directors of Tata Sons. In addition, Wadia has written to the institutional investors, like LIC, which control most of the Tata operating company shareholding, and addressed the small shareholders/media too.

All this, prior to the series of ongoing extraordinary general meetings (EGMs), called by RNT.  

Wadia and Mistry both have pointed out many of RNT’s allegedly wrong decisions,that they both disagreed with, and have tried to remedy.

These include continued funding for the failed Nano small-car project, pouring money into very expensively acquired Corus Steel in UK/Europe, with little hope of seeing a near-term profit, when  the money would have been better spent  on Tata Steel, in India, and so on.

Other charges include violations of company law and foreign exchange laws in the joint venture with Air Asia, yet another aviation venture unlikely to turn a profit.

The Tata Trusts control 66% of the Tata Sons shareholding, and have been exerting executive control  over both the holding companies,  and the operating ones, in a manner unsuitable for charitable trusts and their tax-free charters.

This complaint has been noted by the government, because of detailed representations made by the CM faction; and it has raised various questions of propriety.

This more so, because the Tata Group is now a multi-national, with joint ventures abroad, foreign managers, involvements with foreign governments, even as it is the premier private sector group.

While the government and the institutional investors owned by the government have officially adopted a neutral stance for now, they are working behind the scenes to set things right. This means that RNT’s personal hubris and sense of entitlement will not be allowed to take things too far.

This most particularly in terms of the succession, both in the holding companies, and the trusts.

In hindsight, RNT ignored the fact that in summarily sacking Cyrus Mistry, he was humiliating and attacking not the usual company executive, or even a corporate satrap as of yore, but a man with a family fortune in excess of $8 billion, an eminent lawyer for a father-in-law, and RNT’s half-brother Noel, for a brother-in-law.

A man, who has inherited 18% of Tata Sons, the single largest holding after the Tata Trusts, along with his brother Shapoor.

A man, who’s family has been associated with the Tata Group for over a 100 years. One who is a leading light of the tiny Parsi community,  just as prominent as RNT himself, and with powerful mutual friends.

In the medium to long term, this current turmoil in the Tata Group, will probably benefit its millions of shareholders, by shaking off the old guard, and cutting out the pre-1991 era deadwood.

But there is no doubt, that the entire matter could have been handled very much better.

For: SirfNews
(1,498 words)
December 16th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Windfall Profits In Debt Funds To Continue


Windfall Profits In Debt Funds To Continue

One happy side-effect of demonetisation, is in the engendering of windfall profits in 100% Indian Debt Mutual Funds. The Economic Times called it an injection of ‘adrenaline’.

Many of these returned 30% annualised, in funds holding medium-term securities, with maturities in 1 to 3 years, and even some maturing in 3 to 5 years. The Gilt Funds holding 100% government paper, some with even longer durations, did just as well.

Others, shorter-term - bonds, debentures, government securities, for periods ranging from 3 months to 1 year, also performed. And the absolutely ‘liquid’ funds, that are used to park overnight funds etc. returned an unprecedented 12% in November 2016.

Going forward, RBI Governor Urjit Patel, chose not to reduce the repo rates in early December, against expectations, but reportedly fearing inflation topping the target of 5%.

Even so, the debt funds at the top-end are still expected to return 25% annualised for December 2016.

The RBI Governor did cut 25 bps in September, soon after taking over, but the high street banks were slow in passing on benefits to their customer borrowers. This might have influenced him this time.

Because, now, with such a wealth of money, banks are cutting fixed deposit rates on their own, if not the lending rates too. Bank fixed deposit interest rates are bound to see further declines in the near term. 

Cuts in the repo rate of 25 to 50 bps, are expected early in 2017. This, as a measure to revive demand for loans, if the banks haven’t managed to pump up their portfolios at self-motivated and cheaper rates of interest.

The banks  have no reason to hoard money now, nor refuse to lend to good prospects, because their NPAs and bad debts, all less than 10% of assets anyway, are not nearly as burdensome.

Also, to date, over Rs. 12  lakh crores, of the  estimated cash held in Rs.500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes, has now come in.

Some of the sudden excess liquidity has also been sucked up by the RBI  via raised CRRs ( cash reserve ratios) towards system stability.

With a slack loan portfolio however, banks have been buying government securities ‘aggressively’,  also contributing to a rise in bond prices.

The bench-mark ten-year yield, for example, came down to 6.43% by the 21st of November, from 6.80% on November 8th.  

The yield on 3 month bonds also declined from 6.40% on 8th November, to 5.94% on the 21st of November.

Long-term bond holders gained 2.8% in days, the amount normally earned in 3-4 months.  Long–term Gilt funds too garnered more than 3% in absolute returns in November.

The pace of depositing the old cash has now slowed considerably, suggesting it might run out soon. If it does, any amount short of the estimated money in circulation, even if it is just Rs. 1 lakh crores, will be a bonanza to the RBI, and the government.

So how much will be in by year-end? And then, how much more, directly to the RBI by March-end 2017?

How will the budget announcements of February 1st, 2017, the Finance Minister hinting at a reduction in direct taxes, affect the equity and debt markets?

The Indian equity market has been hit since Trump’s election and the demonetisation.  But the debt market seems detached from the  tumultuous front-page goings on, and confident  of the future trends, both based on the fundamentals of the economy, and the massive pseudo-recapitalisation of the banks.

Of course, deposits into the bank by customers is not the same as equity injections by the promoters and the government, but still.

There have been scattered reports of even more demonetised currency notes being out there than the current government and system is aware of.

Figures of a ceiling of 15 to 17 lakh crores have been mentioned, which constitute 86-87% of the currency in circulation. But the vagueness suggests nobody quite knows for sure.

And now, reports suggest, that there may be as much as Rs. 20 lakh crores out there, the excess clandestinely issued by previous governments, ‘off the books’.  
If this is so, it would raise a number of serious questions with regard to the authenticity of the country’s erstwhile fiscal management.  And produce the need to come up with unprecedented confidence-building remedies.

Meanwhile, some Rs. 19,000 crores of the smart money has been invested into debt mutual funds in November, and more, retail, domestic institutional, and foreign institutional investment, is bound to follow.

This, to take advantage of the mouth-watering returns at minimal risk and volatility, compared to bank FDs, or even other debt markets around the globe!

However, over Rs. 17,000 crores in FII investment, from a total of over Rs. 30,000 crores  of their money, has departed our debt markets simultaneously.

This is a safe-haven manoeuvre, versus the risks of emerging markets (EMs), and might continue, particularly from the higher risk equity markets in India, which have also seen steady outflows ever since the steady US economic recovery.

This is spurred by the 3rd modest increase of 25bps effected by the US Federal Reserve Bank recently, bringing their interest rate up to a magnificent 0.75% p.a., after nearly a decade of near zero.

Also, the decisive election of billionaire businessman Donald Trump has set off a boom in the US stock market, if not their debt market, to the same extent. But since the US stock and debt markets are the biggest in the world, at many multiples of ours, every blip makes a volume difference.

But still, the returns in our Indian debt market now, should entice FII money to return, perhaps in larger absolute terms, if not in EM allocation percentages, than before.

Some would argue however that this kind of outsized return is a happy aberration, that cannot be sustained.

And yet, some fundamentals are changing that may keep the good times going for at least six months going forward.

Demand for debt instruments from investors will drive up prices. Offtake by the government for development/infrastructure projects and welfare is likely to increase. The private housing loan providers, that have been languishing because of high rates, are likely to see a gradual uptick as they shake off the housing sector recession. Other private sector borrowing too may help buoyancy.

Banks may become far more aggressive in the effort to recover their non-performing assets (NPAs), including the liquidating of defaulter collateral in their possession.

And lastly, the drive towards a digitised and much more cashless economy may be succeeding, with a slew of follow up measures and fine tuning of  alternative delivery systems.

Items like the value of the currency against the US dollar, foreign currency reserves, expectedly renewed growth, lowering inflation, fiscal and current account deficits, reduced counterfeiting, are also of benefit.

In the absence of the major headwinds from higher petroleum product prices in the near future, this benign scenario for the debt funds may continue.

In the context of most household savings, ranging from 94% to 98% of the total, always steering clear of both the stock and debt markets, the time may have come to make a change.

The lamentation on declining bank fixed deposit rates is now useless for the medium term.

The open-ended debt funds are just as safe and liquid as the banks. An investor can deposit or withdraw funds on any working day, receiving proceeds into his or her bank account within 3 working days.

While the current tax treatment is at the marginal rate for three years, followed by 20% and indexed, the returns justify the effort, even if they settle down in the long run, to the 8 to 10% per annum range, as before.     

For: The Sunday Guardian
(1,281 words)
December 15th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Single Party Rule By Default: Has The Public Begun The Beguine?



Single Party Rule By Default: Has The Public Begun The Beguine?

And now when I hear people curse the chance that was wasted
I know but too well what they mean
From: When they begin the beguine- Cole Porter

The Beguine is a ‘couples’ slow-dance’, and the unlikely metaphor here, is in terms of a gradual, but not interminable, build-up, towards general elections in 2019, and beyond.

Is India moving on philosophically, democratically, but disgusted with their elected representatives, spurred-on by disillusionment, with near filmy, feudalistic, interpretations of imported ideologies; of a constitutional intent subverted, of parliamentary  procedure thrown overboard by a roomful of boors?

Is it fed up of being taken for granted,  taken for fools?

Moving on, towards something more home-grown, more willing to be accountable, that it can call its own, as its self-image matures?

Is the RSS, re-dressed in long trousers, less sinister and ridiculous now, than was assumed before, off-hand, almost axiomatically?

Has it morphed in the public eye from anachronistic neo-fascism, into a patriotic, disciplined, honest, and benevolent force for the good?

Can it be banned again, or dismissed as the killers of MK Gandhi, being challenged in court, even as the dim-witted Congress scion refuses to retract?

Thing is, more and more people, in these days of interactive social media, have realised that it was the long-ruling Nehru dynasty, that killed many parts of the Gandhian legacy, replacing it with their own hagiography, with their near divine right to rule.

And it was this same Nehru dynasty, that planted the seeds of many needless but seething conflicts, having to be endured to this day.

But despite the body politic being long spoiled from the pampering of a destructive, neo-colonial kind; a new consensus has been already built.
This is not entirely in favour of the once chai-wala, turned RSS pracharak, turned CM, and now PM; because of some obscurantist fringe elements vitiating the atmosphere.

But it is a consensus, that is definitely against the pseudo-secularism cum faux socialism, relegated to the past.

Is the carping over the Supreme Court mandated, having to stand up for the national anthem before movie shows, for example, a hollow bleat from yesterday men?

People lost in denial, and disbelief, like the Hillary Clinton supporters in America, long permitted, and used to, trashing everything patriotic here, in the name of modernity, ‘tolerance’, and personal freedom?

Are all of Macaulay’s half-baked and  chi-chi children, and their cousins of  Marxist, Fabian, and Lohiaite extraction, who have collectively kept the masses of India miserably poor and backward, really headed for the dhalao now?

Do the post-independence, post 1991, far more switched-on generations, regard the rootless internationalism of the Congress Party, essentially, as traitorous?

These people constitute more than 65% per cent of the population, many aged between 15 and 35, and form our vaunted demographic dividend. Resulting, inadvertently, from our soft attempts at population control,  after correcting the initial excesses.

China, simultaneously, was hard about it, and is changing into a country of old people, notwithstanding their recent reversal of policy. Demographic shifts take at least three decades.

The reactionary and old amongst the Indian Liberal-Left, harking back to self-serving interpretations of ‘The idea of India’, need to drop their hectoring, and understand what the young people want now.

These people are the present, and they have decisively voted for Modi, and they are the future of India, wanting to give him more time.

Regarding much of the Congress-speak as sedition, these young voters are in resonance with the prevailing wind around the world, grown disillusioned with making too free with core values of identity and inspiration.

People, young and old, rich, poor, educated and not, in the West, are grown disillusioned after more than a half century of broad world peace, from being pauperised by economic prescriptions, that have nevertheless failed.

Politically, taking on Islamic angst, at last, that blames the nominally Christian West for its pain, asserting it to be errant nonsense. Why do Muslims, members of a hugely populous religion, refuse to reform its medieval tenets?

Instead, sections within it, have forced bloody outrages, on the everyone ‘other’. This other, is inclusive of even those, amongst Muslims themselves, who have the temerity not to agree with this neo-savagery.

Globally, there is a move towards the right then, not just in protest against these marauders, but towards nationalism in its various manifestations.
This is what Communists and Left-Liberals are calling a primeval ‘irrationalism’, a narrow and vicious close-mindedness, even a madness, they hope, will pass.

But, it is an ironic moot point; where does the obsolescence truly lie?
Is the intolerant ‘liberal’, frequently reduced to an electorally vanquished minority where people vote, or summarily pushed aside, where they don’t, confronting extinction?

Viewed from a macroscopic perspective, it has been a long run indeed, for the Liberals and Communists; a few recent centuries worth, as authoritarian and monarchical constructs unravelled in the face of the new egalitarianism.

Today however, it is widely felt that the Left-Liberal has bamboozled and lied for too long. So now, there will be no more putting upon people, without delivering the prosperity they promised!

The Left-Liberals won’t get another turn at the wheel however, till, and if, the new Right fails too. Can their gravy-training hearts hold out for that long, or will they cravenly jump ship?

Will the Right become an amalgam of erstwhile liberals, now turncoat, and the more extreme alt-right, going forward?

 The run of regional parties, and their oversized influence in national politics, that ebbed and flowed for the entire 30 years that India saw no majority government at the centre, seems to be firmly on the skids.

If the NDA win again in 2019, with a majority at the centre, it might put paid to the mostly pernicious regional party influence in national affairs, more or less, conclusively.

With the reported dissensions and infighting, the break-aways, the lack of succession planning, and continuity, in some of them; as a collective, they are likely to put up a poor challenge to Narendra Modi in 2019.

This, irrespective of the fact that every initiative, or even the lack of it in some important instances, of the NDA, has not always been a qualified success.

This piece, written while we are roiled by the demonetisation turmoil, with the GST roll-out and further necessary financial measures as yet uncertain,  is here on the  threshold of new year 2017.

Not only has the private limited, me-and-my-extended-family, on a tax free jamboree, nature of the beast, grown tiresome to people, but the regional credibility too, is gone.

No one believes that these entities are there to help their aspirations. They do not seem to follow any ideology other than self-aggrandisement. It has turned off the voting public, after a long period of gaining nothing by believing in their false promises.

Adarsh politics, is seen to be present today only in the much maligned RSS, and their political offshoot, the ruling BJP, to some extent.

The other two nominally national parties, namely the Congress and the CPM, are mired in end-of-life contradictions, and have shrunk in stature, to controlling less, than some single state regional parties, who at least  still hold tenuous sway in their own bailiwicks!

Meanwhile, it is the public in India, 30 months into this Modi administration, that has apparently begun the beguine, the slow couples’ dance, setting in motion an enormous juggernaut of change, that will ostensibly not tolerate obstruction or attempts at reversal.

When the song finishes, there may be no more to be said about a viable opposition, because it would have killed itself with its own irresponsibility.
A single party democracy in India, to all intents and purposes, is what we had for the first 50 years, except that the shoe was on the other foot.

Today, if it comes to it, India’s second go at it, could rival China’s growth of the thirty years between the eighties and the first decade of the 21st century.

Cole Porter wrote the song ‘When they begin the beguine’, in 1935, on a Cunard cruise-ship, travelling between Indonesia and Fiji.

It celebrated a Caribbean dance form, mostly from Guadeloupe and Martinique, adapted from earlier French ball-room ideas, becoming a slow rhumba in the sun, involving a rolling of the hips.

Porter’s song, on the B side of a single, with its complex construction, took time to become a hit. But when it did, it migrated the dance-form, though transformed, via various musical arrangements, into swing, tap-dance, and a very long list of standard balladeering.

The Beguine, even has a further, cultural back-story. Beguines were women, in no-vows Christian communes, during the 13-16th centuries, in Northern Europe.

The song and the dance Porter’s lilting song inspired, travelled, from ship to shore, firstly, of course, to America, New York’s Broadway, and Hollywood. And later, to Europe, particularly, Paris.

It was even a favourite of our own Meher Baba, who asked for it to be played seven times, at his funeral in 1969.

For: Sirfnews
(1,496 words)
December 11th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee