Renewed Threat Of Nuke Wars In Space As Powers Seek Multiple Capacity To Destroy Rival Satellite Infrastructure

Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution on April 24^th 2024 with regard to the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, probably tabled to prevent it developing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon, even though China and the US are covertly developing them too.

Thirteen other members of the broader Security Council voted in favour, while China abstained. Japan and the United States had drafted the resolution to uphold Article 4 of the Outer Space Treaty, which does not allow countries from placing nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit. The resolution had an additional 63 nation co-sponsors. It was based on US intelligence reports that Russia was developing a nuclear ASAT device that could damage or destroy a large number of satellites in low earth orbit. It could also prove a danger to astronauts. Russia denied working on any such device.

The consensus amongst the world’s strategic thinkers is that space is no longer a place for peaceful and cooperative exploration, but like other quests before it in land and sea on earth, it is the new vista for complex combat, and a jockeying for supremacy.

The key player is the US, that enjoys pole position in space currently, but this is being challenged now by China and Russia. The strategic necessity is for the US to stay ahead, so that it can’t be overwhelmed. In the event of war with China, rather than Russia, this would prove crucial. Russia is not bent on world domination, despite its ongoing war with Ukraine, and so its programme is essentially geared towards protecting its own assets and survival.

One or more nuclear weapons detonated in space will either suddenly knock- out, or gradually ‘fry’ the electronics of satellites in its environs. There are some very expensively made American satellites that carry its nuclear codes  that can withstand known anti-satellite weapons. The vast majority, of over 8,000 satellites in space put up by various countries and private entities however, are for commercial, communication, navigation, weather monitoring, mapping, surveillance, and other, mainly non-military uses. These can be badly affected or rendered useless by targeted attacks.

China, Russia, and America are all developing anti-satellite weaponry and deployment vehicles including the testing of small, reusable, inspection and delivery vehicles.

The effects of nuclear detonations in space are known from multiple nuclear tests conducted by both the US and the Soviets/Russians in the old days. Similar tests have been conducted by the Chinese, and even India, that has conducted a single test. Destroying or disabling one’s own obsolete satellites is a favourite testing method.

There is a broad consensus not to add to debris in space that, in the absence of gravity, hamper other working satellites for a very long time. Fortunately, even the radioactive debris from the earlier tests burn-out on entering the earth’s atmosphere.  

While international protocols have banned more nuclear tests in space, there is nothing as yet to universally stop countries developing anti-satellite nuclear weaponry, their subsequent testing, and deployment in space. The destructive power and threatened radioactive fallout of such weapons is looming large. Strategic necessity is goading the leading powers to forge ahead with the development of space weaponry so as not to be outclassed or left behind

There is also the entire world of cyber attacks which could be used to disable satellites in space. You need a successful hacking, from right here on earth. Satellites can even be programmed to destroy each other in space in response to earth-based commands. So, processes that enable a satellite to come near to repair or assist another, can swiftly be turned to aggressive purpose.

There are ‘directed energy’ weapons such as lasers, high-power microwaves, radio frequency jammers, ‘dazzlers’, that can be deployed, both on earth and in space. Going after ground stations or communication links can be another way.

With the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI), satellites can do a measure of their own thinking to take evasive action, but AI based fakery could catalyse miscalculations between rivals. How much things have progressed can be gauged by the fact that destroyed satellites can be replaced in 24 hours, instead of 6-12 months.

Analysts think the first moments of WWIII, if it were to come, would be a race to knock out or cripple enemy satellites in space for the enormous disruptions it would cause. There are low, medium, and high orbit satellites for different purposes in close proximity to each other.

The present American thinking is to throw up more and more satellites with replicated abilities and enhancements, in different orbits. To the over 6,000 American satellites, versus about 600 Chinese ones, out of a total of 8,000 odd orbiting now, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the enemy to disable or destroy more than a limited number at once. There would, of course, be swift retaliation in seconds.

President Trump caused the establishment of the Space Force in 2019, that is now rapidly growing in terms of both personnel and budgets. The trained specialists are being posted in all branches of the military, especially the air force. There is also the Space Command, the so called ‘Guardians’, that oversees practically all of space from 100km above sea level onwards.

With space being yet another high-stakes frontier, the US is not stinting on resources to keep itself at the forefront. Budgets and command structures apart, in the space game of dominion, the attacker has the advantage. Satellites at near Earth orbit travel at 17,000 miles per hour. It’s a swift war, if it comes, and one’s intelligence information must be timely, and action must be pre-emptive, and foolproof.   

(937 words)

April 26^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Land Sea And Air BrahMos Variants Can Export USD 3 Billion Worth By 2026

Named poetically after the Brahmaputra and Moskva rivers, the BrahMos is a great quarter century success story of Indo-Russian cooperation. The BrahMos missiles, indigenously manufactured to over 76% presently, are headed to first 85% with the addition of Indian seekers and boosters, and then 100% by 2026.The R&D for BrahMos is entirely conducted in India.

The current BrahMos can fly at 49,000 ft and skim the surface of the oceans alike. The suite of land, sea- including submarine versions, and the lighter air versions for aircraft, together offer a comprehensive array. They are manufactured, including the componentry, at several separate facilities around the country.

Russia, a 49.5/50.5 percent partner in BrahMos, values its economic and military relationship with India, and is reluctant to allow any Chinese interference with it. It has jointly decided to allow the exports of the BrahMos missiles to those countries that are friendly to both Russia and India. It sends its representatives to expositions that feature BrahMos and takes part in negotiations. Director General of BrahMos, Atul Rane, thinks India will export $ 3 billion of the BrahMos missiles by 2026, as more than 12 countries are in keen negotiations at present.  

Thereafter, entirely new second generation hypersonic missiles developed could well enjoy a 100% Indian label and name, giving it greater strategic acceptability over the Indo-Russian joint venture, particularly with those allied to the West.

BrahMos today is considered the world’s fastest, accurate and most deadly supersonic cruise missiles, and of huge strategic concern for China in its efforts to intimidate and contain India. The BrahMos provides three times the speed compared to other supersonic cruise missiles. Its flight range is also three times that of other comparable missiles. The clincher is in its ability to produce nine times the kinetic energy of other supersonic missiles, giving it formidable destructive power.

The Chinese, on their part, have the DF-17 a medium-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle with a range of 1,600 km. It also has the DF -41 intercontinental ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle, the 2,000 km range DF-ZF in both cases. The US thinks China is leading in hypersonic weapons, and has a formidable arsenal, though Russian hypersonic missiles, used recently in Ukraine, fly at Mach 10, at twice the speed of the Chinese ones. However, China does not have any supersonic cruise missiles of the calibre of BrahMos.

The BrahMos missiles in their variants, which cost under $ 5 million each, are being ordered in large numbers by the Indian armed forces and have begun to be ordered by foreign countries. This is based on their stellar performance. For India, it is a strategic game-changer. For example, with the development of a military base in Minicoy, it is the 450 km range BrahMos that will be deployed there to keep a close eye on the Indian Ocean, lately filled with a good deal of Chinese activity using ‘research ships’, submarines and regular PLA Navy.

The BrahMos export versions have a restricted range of 300 km, and the air-to-air version has no match internationally. Russia herself is likely to import it to add to its arsenal shortly, probably after the Ukraine War is concluded. It is not interested in the other variants because it has, over the years, moved away from the P 800 platform that built BrahMos. It now uses the Onyx and Zircon anti-ship missiles as part of its Bastion-P coastal missile defence system. Both can also be used in land-attack roles as well. They are slightly inferior to the BrahMos but have served well in Ukraine.

 The unique BrahMos Air Launched Cruise Missile (ALCM) can of course be exported right away to other friendly countries. For the first time, India has placed defence attaches in The Philippines, Armenia, Poland, Tanzania, Mozambique, Djibouti, Ethiopia and the Ivory coast. This list is likely to be expanded as more countries show interest in defence cooperation with India. The list of countries to which BrahMos may be exported has also been steadily growing.

The Philippines has been the first mover in terms of purchasing the land to sea version of the BrahMos, along with delivery systems, and training in their use. The $ 375 million order, placed in 2022, is currently being delivered and executed. It is interested in Indian Light Combat Helicopters (LCH), capable of flying higher than any other combat helicopter with a full complement of weapons, and the new Tejas 1A fighters. Along with Mauritius and Ecuador, it has also bought Indian-made Dhruv helicopters. The missiles are intended to be a deterrent to the belligerence of China in the South China Sea where the Philippines also has marine and territorial interests.

The Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has also made common cause with the US and Japan to directly oppose Chinese hegemonistic designs. It is currently engaged in a naval exercise, the Ballikatan annual drills, with the US, France for the first time, and Australia. It is using a defunct Chinese tanker for target practice in the South China Sea. A 2,500 km range ground-launched US missile system, the Typhon, has been airlifted to the Philippines. It will be rapidly moved in logistical exercises during the three-week programme but won’t be launched.

Armenia has so far mostly bought the India-made Astra missiles and delivery systems, as well as the Pinaka Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers along with artillery guns and ammunition.

Amongst the several countries in negotiations to acquire BrahMos missiles, the likelihood of the UAE and Saudi Arabia purchasing them shortly is strong, particularly as neither has any budget constraints.

Vietnam and Indonesia, in negotiations longer, need financial support by way of soft loans to do so, and are trying to ward off Chinese pressure not to buy the BrahMos. They are also affected by commercial concerns with regard to the Dragon. Malaysia and Thailand, though interested, also face the same and similar dilemmas.

Most countries in South East Asia, unlike the Philippines and Japan, are reluctant to confront China as it claims the whole of the South and parts of the East China Sea. Repeat orders for BrahMos and other Indian armaments from the Philippines however, are expected.

New generation BrahMos, now under final testing, will have ranges of 600-800 km, up from the 500 km range of the domestic versions now, and are likely to be developed to have a range of 1,500 km. The new generation hypersonic  BrahMos will have a higher speed of Mach 7-8, up from the current Mach2.8 to 4, also with the expected pin-point BrahMos accuracy.

Both the Americans and the Russians have offered to collaborate with India on hypersonic technology as needed.

Relentlessly and rapidly developing a large number of armaments from stealth frigates and nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, light and heavy tanks, armoured carriers, fighter aircraft, drones, missiles, ammunition, radar, guidance and propellant systems and other items, will soon enable India to emerge as the biggest Asian exporter of armaments. This, in addition to meeting its considerable domestic needs.

Even today, after all such efforts at nearly 70% sourcing in India, India is still amongst the largest importers of armaments in the world in value terms, because high technology armaments are indeed very expensive.

Fortunately for India, no country is voluntarily interested in buying China-made or Pakistan -made armaments, which are mostly unreliable and poor copies of Western and Russian versions. China cannot even find buyers for its recently developed civilian commercial jet, also mostly based on imports. It exports only to Pakistan and North Korea, and even the Pakistanis much prefer American-made weapons.

 

(1,266 words)

April 22^nd, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

For The Sri Lankan Buddhist Sinhala Majority, A Visit From The Revered Dalai Lama Is Yearned For, But China Stands In The Way

The 70% plus Buddhist Sinhala population of Sri Lanka fervently want to welcome the 87 year-old Dalai Lama into their country at the earliest. A group of Sri Lankan Buddhist monks who met the Dalai Lama in Bodh Gaya in 2022 invited him to come. He is revered by his direct followers and other Buddhist sects as the 14^th reincarnation of the Buddha Avalokiteshvara. He was anointed at the age of 15 in 1950, the very year the Chinese took over Tibet.

The Sri Lankans have been trying to have the Dalai Lama visit since January 2023. They are trying once more now as fresh efforts intensify on the open invitation from the various Buddhist monasteries. Many Sri Lankan Buddhists feel the Dalai Lama can help to sort out the island nation’s economic woes with his wisdom and blessings.

Leading Sri Lankan Buddhist leader Dr Waskaduwe Mahindawansa went on TV to state that the Chinese had pressurised the Sri Lankan government to prevent the visit.

The Chinese, ever political and strategic, want the Sri Lankan Buddhists to team up with Gandharan Buddhists in Pakistan rather than the Indian orders opposed to the Chinese. And certainly, they do not want the Dalai Lama to visit and be honoured.

The impediment to a Sri Lankan visit comes every time by way of China, an outsize influence in Sri Lanka, a victim of its debt-trap diplomacy. China’s debt restructuring will play a crucial part in obtaining further soft loans from the IMF. This has tied the hands of the Sri Lankan government.

The Chinese still regard the elderly Dalai Lama as a dangerous separatist, with massive influence, a living and highly popular symbol of resistance to the Chinese takeover of Tibet.

One of the thorny problems stretching beyond the present incumbent, is that the Buddhist monasteries in Tawang, Leh, and elsewhere in India, do not agree that the Dalai Lama’s successor can be chosen by the Chinese. The Buddhists everywhere are furious at the constant insults hurled by the Communist Chinese against the Dalai Lama, who do not recognise him as a spiritual leader at all, calling him a ‘wolf’ in monks robes.

 The internal facts in Tibet are quite damning. Since 1949, over 1.2 million Tibetans have been killed, over 6,000 monasteries destroyed, thousands of Tibetans imprisoned. The Tibetans are being relocated to dense city enclaves in Lhasa, their smart phones are monitored, and the Mandarin language is being pushed in place of the Tibetan.

With all this, and 74 years of effort including much infrastructure development and relocation of ethnic Han Chinese to Lhasa, the Chinese are still not the masters of Tibetan hearts and minds. Similar problems of non-acceptance of unbridled repression plague the Communist CCP in Xinkiang, Hong Kong, against dissidence of any kind in the country, and of course, Taiwan.

The Chinese authorities bristle at everything the Dalai Lama says and does, and are disturbed every time the Dalai Lama travels within India or internationally. Still, the Dalai Lama has been very successful at promoting the Tibetan cause. The Chinese don’t like the fact that the Dalai Lama is completely free in India. They objected strongly to the Dalai Lama’s visit to the Tawang Buddhist monastery and other parts of Arunachal Pradesh as a state guest in 2016.China, typically and audaciously, claims 90,000 sq. km of the state even today as ‘South Tibet’.

China is firmly opposed to the Nobel Laureate and international apostle of spiritual optimism. The fact that the young lama escaped to India that gave him sanctuary is a constant thorn in the flesh of the Chinese side. Even today, Tibetans in occupied Tibet are rarely given Chinese passports to travel. They are specifically discouraged from visiting the Dalai Lama in India, more so since 2012. There is also a ban extant on openly worshipping him.

China handed out brownie points to relatively smaller countries like South Africa, a part of BRICS when it was far more important and influential, for blocking a Dalai Lama visit in 2011.  

This was widely criticised internally.  The Lama was to go to Cape Town on the occasion of the 80^th birthday of fellow Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu at his invitation.

The Dalai Lama did visit South Africa to meet with Nelson Mandela in 1996. But he was prevented from doing so again before the 2010 World Cup. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman in 2011, Hong Lei, laid out the unrelenting policy on the venerable monk when he said: ‘China’s position of opposing the Dalai Lama visiting any country with ties to China is clear and consistent’.

When the Dalai Lama met the Mexican president Felipe Calderon in 2011, China said it had ‘harmed Chinese-Mexican relations’. Likewise, Beijing was critical of President Barack Obama receiving the Dalai Lama in the White House in July 2011. However, Presidents Clinton and George W Bush also met the Dalai Lama ignoring Chinese protests. As did Angela Merkel of Germany, Nicholas Sarkozy of France and Gordon Brown of Britain.

Much was done to impact the careers of Hollywood stars like Richard Gere for backing Tibetan aspirations and regularly visiting McLeod Ganj.

The Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959 on mule-back and on foot just ahead of the Chinese take-over of his Potala Palace in Lhasa. This followed a failed  Tibetan uprising against the Han Chinese occupation of Tibet. Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, in an admirable act of idealistic courage, allowed the young Dalai Lama and his small band of fellow monks/followers refuge at Dharamshala/McLeod Ganj, in what is now Himachal Pradesh. India signed a document recognising China’s take over of Tibet in 1954.

Yet, in hindsight, Nehru may have had to pay for harbouring the Dalai Lama, by way of the unprovoked Chinese invasion in NEFA in 1962. Of course, it wasn’t the only reason. However, it was a shock and humiliation that Nehru wasn’t able to survive for long.

Soon a nucleus of exiled Tibetans and enough monks to form a spiritual organisation grew around the Dalai Lama. More and more Indian and international devotees and admirers made the trip to McLeod Ganj as the time wore on. For the Tibetans trapped on the other side, in Chinese occupied Tibet, the Dalai Lama has remained a symbol of hope for ‘genuine autonomy’ instead of subjugation, over the years, from 1950.

A Tibetan government in exile formed in Mcleod Ganj, holds elections, and thrives to this day, frequently appearing to give its views on Indian TV. Its stated purpose is to one day see their way to a free Tibet or at least a truly ‘autonomous’ region.

Many of the Tibetans and their descendants have integrated into Indian society, marrying other communities, forming clusters and colonies in different parts of the hills and plains of India.

The Indo-Tibetan Border Force is a formidable military presence all along the LaC with China, and is being steadily expanded. By way of contrast, the Han Chinese have had great difficulty in motivating the natives of sparsely populated Tibet to work with them in any capacity, or help their efforts to man and defend the LaC with India.

Instead, the Chinese have been forced to use Han conscripts from the plains, ill-suited to the rare air and high altitude. Most, including the senior officers, fall sick, and have to be frequently replaced.

China puts out a different development narrative with impressive statistics. Tibet now has a prosperous economy with a GDP of $ 31 billion and a per capita income of $ 8,000. This is twice that of Sri Lanka and 4 times that of India they state. Life expectancy is now 72.19 years. There are 46,000 monks and nuns in over 1,700 monasteries in Tibet.

Critics say these statistics are fudged, and a debt-driven narrative. Most of all, there is no freedom of religion. The effort to nurture a phony Buddhist ethos is to legitimise Chinese efforts to name  a state-sponsored Dalai Lama successor.

 

 (1,330 words)

April 18^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Bam Bam Marcos Refuses To Countenance Chinese Aggression In South China Sea

China claims a good deal of marine territory in the South China Sea for well over a decade now. It is prickly with all shipping in the area, stalking it with  navy ships and aircraft. It routinely water cannons Philippine ships, coast guard vessels, and fishing boats, and those of other smaller countries in the littoral.

 It does not dare to physically harass US ships and aeroplanes that patrol the South China Sea to keep the sea lanes open. But it blockades the Filipino ships trying to go to its territory such as the Second Thomas Shoal. China issues statements like ‘do not play with fire’ to Manila. It loftily chides the United States too, for destabilising its maritime backyard, but with due care.

However, the dragon is increasingly running into headwinds as more and more countries band together to check its ambitions. Pressure is being met with counter pressure.

The other countries of the basin, those in ASEAN, bigger, nuclear weaponised powers, accept the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling of 2016. It says the South China Sea has international waterways for the use of all.  It was the Philippines that had taken the matter of constant Chinese bullying and tense sea-standoffs to the ICJ in 2013. So, it is not surprising that the Philippines is at the forefront of the pushback.

China did not recognise this 2016 ruling, and indeed the ICJ in general.  It is true that the rulings of the ICJ on various matters are not binding, but are generally respected by all.

The long festering disputes have also directly affected Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Japan, and farther afield, Australia. Its hard to say if the CCP and President Xi Jinping are playing top-dog as an act of dominance, or the real reasons are economic.

The Chinese deeper motivations may be to do with the knowledge that there is likely a large amount of petroleum in these waters. Therefore, its actions go beyond denying countries in the area their fishing rights or claim to island like bodies and shoals. There is more to its proclaiming Chinese sovereignty over the international waterway. If they got their way, the Chinese would probably control access and ingress to the sea as if it were the Suez or Panama Canal, and charge everyone else a fee.

This is clearly unacceptable with regard to the freedom of the seas, and a potential flashpoint to all, including India, already plagued by China.

Chinese spy-ships, navy and submarines, constantly ply in the Malacca Straits and Andaman/Nicobar Islands area, the broader Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. This is aided by Chinese bases in Sri Lanka at Hambantota, in Bangladesh where it has ostensibly built a submarine base for it, from the Maldives, from the Coco Islands of Myanmar, farther afield at Djibouti.

India is helped in guarding the Indian Ocean area by the US Navy, plus the French and British navies in particular.  

India, not only participates in QUAD and the Malabar Exercises on a regular basis with other countries, but joins in the naval exercises in the South China Sea as well. It has now opened two shipyards, in Kattupalli, near Chennai, and another in Cochin, to repair and service US and British ships.

Ever since the legendary Ferdinand Marcos’ son, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., nick-named Bam-Bam in his youth, came to power, the Philippines has upped the ante against Chinese hegemony. There is no longer much effort to appease China, or deal with it using do-nothing but hot rhetoric, though a diplomatic and political dialogue is still maintained.

The Philippines is the first foreign country to order three batteries of Brahmos anti-ship shore based supersonic cruise missiles from India. It has had its navy personnel trained in their use by India. These missiles, ordered a couple of years ago, are presently being delivered and placed. They are being deployed to protect Filipino interests in the South China Sea. The Indo-Russian Brahmos, manufactured in India, comes in air, sea, land and submarine variants, and  are widely acknowledged to be the fastest and most devastating missiles in the world.

In November 2023 Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. began work on a security pact that would allow the conduct of joint military exercises. Japan has also agreed to finance surveillance radars for the Philippine navy.

Recently, the Philippines deployed its South Korean made fighters in joint air exercises with Australia.

Vietnam, after clashing militarily with China and winning the battle in the past, is now more accommodative of Chinese concerns with a view to its trade relations with it. However, Vietnam too is exploring buying armaments from India because of the constant harassment, inclusive of the Brahmos missiles. It also buys from the US.

This Red China hegemony over the waters of the South China Sea is replete with the unilateral construction of several artificial islands, some with substantial airfields, capable of hosting Chinese fighter aircraft.

The implications of this militarisation of disputed international waters are of concern to US ally Japan with a large number of US troops stationed in-country. Japan is often subjected to Chinese sabre-rattling in the East China Sea, where too China claims a number of Japanese islands. Again, the motive seems to be oil, though perching so close to the Japanese mainland is another Chinese imperialistic and strategic consideration. Chinese ally North Korea also sporadically fires its menacing missiles into the East China Sea.

Likewise, Australia that receives 80% of its goods and trade via the South China Sea is not at all willing to allow China to flout the international rule of law.

The United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines have just held their first joint naval exercises including anti-submarine warfare training  and air cover on April 7^th 2024. These were pointedly held in the South China Sea as a clear message and warning to Beijing. The Philippines also participated in the Japan led multinational naval exercise as an observer for the first time in 2023. The international community, including most notably the US, as the most powerful Western country, is keen to defend a ‘free and open’ Indo-Pacific. Otherwise, China, the world’s second largest economy, might be tempted to ride rough shod.

This naval exercise was followed by President Biden hosting a trilateral summit with Japan and the Philippines in Washington where a substantial number, 73 defence pacts, were signed with Japan. This included a proposal to draw Japan into the AUKUS military configuration along with the US, Australia and the UK. Japan has considerably changed its erstwhile pacifist military position to make all this possible.

The command and control structures in all three countries received special attention as they are crucial to rapid deployment.

The US is treaty bound to defend both the Philippines and Japan against any aggression but is both upgrading and renewing its terms. President Biden called these commitments ‘iron-clad’ in the recent summit.

 Is there economic leverage given that a collapsed real estate sector has roiled the Chinese economy? US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent week-long visit to China underlined the American concern against China dumping manufactured steel items at cut-prices due to Chinese over capacity. This would harm American and allied industry. Yellen recalled the damage a similar dumping had done to US steel manufacture a decade ago. No retaliatory threats were issued, for now.

However, China is likely to continue with its policy of stepped-up exports as part of its drive to achieve 5% growth.

A combination of factors has created a tinder box that only Chinese policy u- turns can salvage. China however plans to capture Taiwan, continue with its hegemony in the South and East China Seas, its sharp trade practices, its aggressive intransigence along the Indo-Chinese LaC.

And so the game of chicken continues. Will China blink first, or rely on the ‘decadent’ West’s greed in trade matters to win the day?

(1,325 words)

April 12^th, 2024

For: Firstpost

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Possibility of Another Donald Trump Presidency Spooks NATO

The presumptive Republican Party nominee Donald Trump, is inching ever closer to the US presidency as his legal challenges melt away. Polls show him ahead of President Joe Biden. Even critics who think it will be a close election give Trump a fifty-fifty chance right now.

NATO in Europe, much closer to the war in Ukraine than the US across the Atlantic, is scrambling to mobilise resources to ‘Trump-proof’ themselves in anticipation. Trump has recently said Russia can do ‘what the hell it likes’ to any European country that does not pay its share in NATO and its war support to Ukraine.

Actually, Europe realises it needs to think much beyond Ukraine going forward, because Trump’s transactional and quid-pro-quo style will not treat their security as guaranteed by Uncle Sam. Finland, for example, has just ordered 64 F-35A fighter jets from the US, and has decided to double artillery shell production.

The outgoing NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, is drumming up support for the now 32 member-country NATO to establish a new five-year, 100 billion euro fund for the battle in Ukraine. But many in Europe and America realise that Ukraine is militarily unequal, finding it difficult to find more conscripts let alone trained soldiers, and that there is massive corruption in addition to gross incompetence.

Twenty of the 32 member NATO have set a target of spending 2% of GDP for defence this year as called for earlier. But Trump says NATO security guarantees would only apply to those countries that actually meet their defence spending commitments. This will profoundly change the way that NATO operates.

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway and an international diplomat wants Europe to assume leadership of the Ramstein Group which gathers more than 50 countries to coordinate weapons deliveries to Kyiv. This sounds like a fond hope rather than practical strategy.

The Ramstein Group includes NATO, countries in the EU, and allies in the Asia-Pacific including Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. Even though the group is unwieldy, it has worked fine with US leadership, but may not hold together under a far weaker European captaincy. Besides, how much good money can be thrown after bad in the name of a woolly policy platform that demonises Russia?

Countries like Slovakia and Hungary, closer to Russia, are not in favour of the new proposed fund gathering. Others in southern Europe, such as Spain and Italy, are wary of duplication of this quota-funding beyond EU payments of 50 billion euros already in place.

America under Democrat President Joe Biden is committed to continued aid and arms to Ukraine, but has already poured in $ 75 billion in the last two years. It is finding it difficult to get bipartisan approval for more arms and funds. Ukraine meanwhile has largely run out of ammunition, even as it clamours for more of the very expensive Patriot missiles and fighter jets. How much of the money and arms pouring out of America are just gifts? Neither European NATO nor Ukraine can afford to pay back.

Russia has warned against troops from France getting directly involved in Ukraine, and said this would raise the threat of nuclear war in the European region beyond Ukraine. Any misstep could trigger WWIII.

 Secretary General Stoltenberg retires later this year, and will not have to face the challenges from a possible Trump White House personally. He has been at the helm of NATO for a decade already. He is tipped to be replaced by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as his successor. Before he leaves office however, Stoltenberg will preside over the 75^th anniversary of NATO, at a summit in Washington in July.

At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed frustration at Ukraine being kept out of the NATO alliance. Those opposed, think that letting Ukraine join NATO while the war with Russia  has raged on for over two years now, will likely provoke sharp and dangerous reactions from President Vladimir Putin. Besides there is a growing perception that Ukraine has already lost the war and it is time NATO pulled the plug.

Placing NATO on Russia’s doorstep with the inclusion of Ukraine, even though it cannot pay its way with a devastated economy, is a violation of previous understandings, according to Russia. It was one of the reasons why Russia went to war against Ukraine in the first place. The other was Ukraine’s harsh treatment of Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region bordering Russia.

However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently told reporters in Brussels that ‘Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership’. If Biden does not win the presidency in November, then this process of ‘bridge’ building will most likely not be pursued. Trump is certainly not in favour of mollycoddling Ukraine’s security at the expense of Russia. Various member countries such as Poland that want Ukraine in NATO may not find much purchase with Trump in the White House.

Candidate Donald Trump has let it be known he will ‘settle’ the war in Ukraine, if elected to office, ‘in 24 hours’, without specifying how. His formula flies in the face of those in Europe and America who do not want to concede any Ukrainian territory to Russia. Trump favours ceding the territory claimed by Russia in the Donbas region and beyond. Others think this will encourage Russia to invade again but surely this can work both ways. There will have to be a massive international reconstruction effort in what remains of Ukraine after a settlement in any case. This means business for many. Nevertheless, the brightest hope of a swift end to the war in Ukraine is Trump back in the saddle.

Similarly, Trump has a 2020 formula for ending the war in Gaza. He wants Jerusalem and the West Bank occupied territories as part of Israel, and simultaneously a Palestinian state established. Only America can make this happen. This solution is likely to be supported by the major Arab countries already drawn in by the Abrahamic Accords from Trump1.0.

Trump’s ideas on Iran, North Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, are not that different from that of Democrat President Joe Biden and the State Department. They will have to evolve after he comes to office of course.

India will continue to be considered a strategic ally of the US in the South Asian region and as a bulwark against Chinese hegemony.  There will be more collaborations, joint ventures, American investment, and defence technology transfer. India is likely to rapidly gain from more manufacturing relocations from China. Trump and Narendra Modi also have a personal chemistry that will help. However, the IT industry may face challenges with visa restrictions on working in the US.

Pakistan will probably receive less American support than it does at present with a Republican administration in office. It will most likely be clubbed with China strategically.

American relations with Russia will proceed at a better pace, as Trump has no real quarrel with Putin, and Trump will withdraw all sanctions against Russia and encourage his western allies to do so. To some extent this will free Russia to forge better ties with the West, instead of being limited to a Chinese embrace.

  (1,220 words)

April 9^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Challenged By Losing Power In 17 City Municipalities Will Erdogan Change The Turkiye Constitution?

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, 52, businessman cum politician, is the victor for the second time, elected mayor of Istanbul. He had also won in 2019. Imamoglu is now seen as the main rival to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, though he was debarred from standing for the presidency in 2023. Other contenders include Mansur Yavas who won the mayorship of Ankara, also for the consecutive second time.

Their party, the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP), that invokes modern Turkey founder Kemal Ataturk, displaying posters of him, secured victories in the commercial hub of Istanbul by over a million votes.

Other wins by the CHP and the multi-party opposition, included the capital Ankara, important cities of Izmir, Bursa, Antalya, amongst the seven largest, making up a total of 17 cities.

The main cause of these seismic changes is the alarming state of the Turkish economy. But it would it be too much to call it a de facto referendum on Erdogan, because his core supports want him to stand firm.

Stand still, this nation is with you - they shouted back as he greeted followers from the party HQ balcony in Ankara. Of course, they must be aware of the sweeping powers of the presidency under his belt.

Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) was defeated roundly in urban Turkiye where inflation and costs hit harder than in the countryside. These losses are signalling a definite shift in Turkiye politics.

Erdogan has dominated Turkish politics for 21 years now. He has been prime minister from 2003, and then president since 2014. He himself called these dramatic election results a ‘turning point’, and vowed to right all wrongs.

Some of the municipalities in the south east have once again been won by Kurdish parties suspected of having ties with terrorists and militants. They may not be allowed to take over by Erdogan, any more than in 2019.

Now 70, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, born and raised in Istanbul, the populous premier city of 16 million people, also started his political rise when he became its mayor in 1994.  

The opposition may have won the municipalities now via some 61 million eligible voters and a 76% voter turn-out across 81 provinces, but lost in parliamentary and presidential elections in 2023.

This latest vote comes on the horns of runaway inflation at 67% that is roiling the cost of living. People are having difficulty putting food on the table, buying essentials, paying for utilities. Erdogan’s efforts to control it via a tight monetary policy with an interest rate of 50% have made life difficult for Turkish businesses as well. And hope of reducing inflation to some 36% sounds like a pipe dream.

Erdogan, slipping at the hustings, will most likely now push anew to usher in a new constitution he has been advocating for some time. This would need a two-thirds majority of legislators of course and so he may have to wait for the right time. It would reflect his brand of Islamic conservatism, and most likely allow him to rule beyond 2028, when his current term ends.

The question is, does Turkiye want more Islamic conservatism though? Is it keen to see Erdogan ousted  on both counts, his hard line Islamist tendencies and because the economy is in a shambles?

Current goings on are a far cry from reformist-founder Kamal Ataturk’s modern  Republic of Turkey established during his term from 1923 till his death in 1938. Ataturk, a field marshal before he became president, westernised the country, insisted on western dress, famously banned the colonial era tasselled fez, pushed back against the influence of the mullahs, all this in trying to get over the imperialist legacies of the finally defeated Ottomans after WWI.

Turkiye then spent decades aspiring to join the EU but was not ultimately admitted. But Erdogan’s Turkiye seems to have rejected the Ataturk legacy. Is the political spectrum coming full circle however via at least parts of the dominant opposition?

Consider that it is a much more Islamic fundamentalist Turkiye now, yet it is a NATO member, an organisation created essentially to defend Europe. Turkiye sits on the edge of Europe and Asia, and indeed Russia. A conservative Islamist Turkiye in context is something of an anomaly.

The erstwhile much publicised charm of the Orient Express, the romance of Istanbul, both Eastern and Western, the land of carpets and Turkish coffee and Delight, was long palatable to the Western traveller and tourist alike from the 1920s onwards. It was also popular with the overland  hippie trail of the seventies.

But under Erdogan, it has been replaced by those who put their women once again in hijabs. This is bad for business because even the Islamic world of 57 countries, do not, by and large, subscribe to fundamentalism, as is evident in the OIC. Erdogan’s allies there have dwindled to just Pakistan and possibly Qatar.

The Turkish Lira was trading at 32.43 to the US dollar the Monday after the municipal election, pretty much at a record low. The Turkish currency has lost 40% against the US dollar over the past year, and some 83% over the last five years. As can be seen, the rate of decline has only accelerated sharply.

The silver lining for Erdogan’s survival is the disunited opposition that often espouses different points of view. Though his party won the parliamentary elections handsomely, his own win last year as president was a narrow one over opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

Now the best efforts of his party to win the municipalities back, particularly that of Istanbul, have squarely failed. Istanbul has long supported Erdogan’s conservative religious inclinations, but, it appears, no longer. Two elections in a row indicate a departure. Likewise in the capital Ankara.

With the Turkiye economy just about at $1 trillion in GDP, there is a huge challenge to both grow it and set it right. Recent past efforts at effective economics have not worked, and Erdogan needs to think outside the box before it is too late.

(1,027 words)

April 3^rd, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Ambitious Chinese 65 Billion CPEC Project Is In Multiple Jeopardy Quagmire

The $ 65 billion China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC), from the restive if oppressed Uighur Muslim majority province of Xinkiang in China, all the way to the Pakistani/Balochi port of Gwadar, is clearly in deep jeopardy now. On top of the obvious debt trap to China, Pakistan finds itself facing a near uncontrollable security dilemma.

Runaway Uighur fighters from Xinkiang, otherwise systematically oppressed by the Han Chinese, are in some degree contributing to the terrorism in Pakistan. This along with the Pakistani Taliban, the Baluchistan Liberation Army, sundry terrorist groups once enthusiastically spawned by Pakistan to deliver a ‘thousand cuts’ to India - plus their variously mutating affiliates.

Baluchis sheltering in Iran are also contributing their mite to the unrest and instability, with Iran reluctant to act harshly against their significant minority population.

This difficult situation is being aggravated daily by the economic weakness of China, plagued by a massive property and real-estate industry collapse, massive non-performing assets (NPAs), a low GDP growth rate, trade and diplomatic differences with the West, as well as a host of its neighbours.

Its currency also cannot be trusted. Its Pakistan ‘all-weather partner’ turned dire liability, is living hand-to-mouth, as it is all but bankrupt. It not only owes billions, under multiple heads and sources, to China, it owes equally huge sums to the multilateral lending agencies such as the IMF and the World Bank plus other Western and Arab lenders. Total Pakistani debt topped $ 126 billion in 2022 and has worsened since.  The currency, the Pakistani rupee, is well on its way to becoming worthless. Foreign currency reserves have gone. Its revenue generation, never robust, as its economy is based on consumption and government spending, is now practically non-existent.

The multilateral lending agencies want Pakistan to renegotiate its loans from China before it gives it more money, but Pakistan is in no position to do so in real terms.

This entire situation is making the Chinese truculent and short with Pakistan, but not really to best effect. Pakistan, as per its long-studied practice, is trying to balance the influence of the super powers, by playing the United States off against China to obtain a measure of leverage with both.

The US Ambassador in Pakistan Donald Blome, no doubt at the urging of the US State Department, visited oil, gas, and mineral rich Baluchistan, the largest province of Pakistan, on 12^th September 2023. The Chinese have been operating in Baluchistan for long. But this visit is probably the beginning of a brand-new US initiative. The US Charge d’affaires had visited in 2021. And this was a long time after the visit of a previous American official, way back in 2006.

Blome met with Pakistani officials in Baluchistan and their Navy’s West Commander. He also visited the port at Gwadar, run by the China Overseas Ports Holding. China hopes to use Gwadar for transhipments, oil cargoes to itself should anything go wrong in the South China Sea, the Malacca Straits, its access to its Pacific ports-and exports to America. How it will drive its cargo through Pakistan to Xinkiang  is another matter.

Pakistan, on its part, sees Gwadar as its only port besides Karachi.

Blome was also to see for himself that there is no Chinese military base in Gwadar as of now, even though the security situation is highly unstable. The Pentagon, in 2022, warned that there could be a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy base in Gwadar before long. More so, if Pakistan capitulates any further to China.

 But, first, before the US can consider fresh investments, there are the growing insurgencies. Almost to illustrate this, the same Pakistan Navy base Blome visited in Gwadar was also recently attacked by Balochistan militants. The Balochis have also attacked and killed Chinese engineers working on a dam at Dasu on the Indus river this month. This is in the sparsely populated Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region.

The Balochi militants routinely attack the provincial capital of Quetta, where the Chinese ambassador recently escaped an attempt on his life. They also do not hesitate to use human bombers in Karachi, again targeting and killing the Chinese, three teachers as it turned out.

All this, despite the best efforts of the Pakistan security forces. The Chinese have so far been disallowed to bring in their own security forces onto Pakistani territory, or indeed into Gwadar Port, other mining sites and Chinese population concentrations in Baluchistan. But the demand is renewed every time there is another terrorist attack on Chinese workers, officials and engineers.

The economic woes plaguing Pakistan have caused then to default on payments on power plants and infrastructure being built by the Chinese. The Pakistanis are also demanding a discount of $3 billion on the cost of a railway known as Main Line -1 from $ 9.9 billion to $6.6 billion. All this is putting pressure on the viability of the CPEC project, and has largely brought it to a stand-still.

The ambitious multiple roads, with industries, infrastructure projects, power plants, railways, pipelines, are only partially completed after more than a decade. And most don’t make any money making repayment of loans only possible via other loans.

The CPEC  main road snakes through India-disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan, which could prove to be a choke point should India reclaim its territory, down to the plains of Pakistan.

The largely Shia population of PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, like that of Baluchistan at the other end, are deeply unhappy with rough and ready Sunni Pakistani administration. The PoK/Gilgit -Baltistan native population that Pakistan is trying to swamp with Sunni Muslims from the plains, would rather be part of Jammu and Kashmir on the Indian side. They have been demonstrating to this effect.

Once on the plains, the CPEC carriageways run for over 3,000 km. to the deep-water port at Gwadar. The Chinese have succeeded in building the deep water port there, but it is still a-begging for cargo and usage, very much like their other white elephant port at Hambantota in Sri Lanka.

At least the Sri Lankans are not attacking the empty, if state-of-the-art port that Sri Lanka had to cede to China on its territory. The same cannot be said for Gwadar in Baluchistan, regularly attacked by terrorists armed with explosives, grenades and small arms.

The Baluchis have made clear that they see no benefit from the Chinese built port for themselves, lacking as they still are, in basics like electricity and water. The fishing in the area has been harmed. The air is polluted with coal-based power plants. The local population is constantly bullied by the Pakistani armed forces.  

The recent elections in Pakistan to the Gwadar constituency in the Balochistan provincial assembly saw Maulana Hidayat ur Rehman, leader of the Gwadar Rights Movement elected. This will now provide an official voice to the Baluchistan activists.

 Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif is scheduled to visit Beijing shortly, and though he is well-experienced, will come under pressure on various aspects of the CPEC, the progress, payments, and security situation. However, China may well be caught between a rock and a hard place, having already invested billions. It is unable to make fresh investments now to keep up the pace of the project.

The geopolitical situation has also changed considerably for China, to its detriment, particularly since the Covid pandemic, and no easy solutions present themselves.

China is now recalibrating its belt and road initiative that has spanned 150 countries since 2013. It will now concentrate on smaller projects, and has spurned Pakistani proposals for more BRI projects via direct investment on its soil.

(1,263 words)

March 28^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee