Implications Of The Last Minute Rescue Of A No-Deal Brexit

The last minute reprieve to a no-deal Brexit has prevented  the worst of a hard landing. The agreement that has come is the best one can have under the hard negotiating circumstances, with economic challenges facing both the EU and Britain.

It is most interesting that Protestant Northern Ireland, a part of the UK, will stay in the EU, while the rest of Britain leaves. It could therefore conceivably reunite with EIRE, very much in the EU, and leave the UK in due course. Already, there is an increased level of cooperation between Catholic Republic of Ireland and Protestant Northern Ireland.

Scotland may not like to stay in post Brexit Britain either. It voted 62% in favour of staying in the EU at the infamous 2016 referendum, but for the moment, it seems to have been contained. However, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) is without an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament at present. Should the SNP gain a majority in elections due in May 2021, there could well be a shift towards independence.

As for the joint administration of EU and British waters for fishing by both sides, it will remain to be seen how the catches are distributed. There is a formula agreed on for five years, after which British waters will become exclusive to Britain and likewise for EU waters for the Europeans.

It is a complex parting of ways, not only in matters of trade, taxation, movements, and commerce, but the untangling of the non-applicability of EU laws concerning anything in Britain and vice versa. Taxation is being largely kept neutral at present but of course this could change in future.

London, till now a major financial capital of Europe, will not be able to offer financial services into the EU henceforth without setting up on the Continent according to their laws. British qualifications may have to be overlaid with EU ones. Brexit has already seen quite a few international players relocating almost entirely across the Channel.

British manufacturing that imports parts from the EU has to stockpile rather than work on zero inventory or last-minute provisioning. Many will lose their competitive edge on the continent as a consequence.

The good news is that the UK can now go forth and enter into trade deals on its own bat with other countries, such as India. Bilateral trade is currently at a modest $15.5 billion in 2019-20.

Britain may be keen on a free trade agreement (FTA) with India which has a lucrative domestic market. This especially because an FTA with America may not fructify quite so easily or quickly. American goods could swamp the UK. Being part of the EU, it was the strain of more EU imports vis a vis British exports that  hastened the split. India on its part will be looking at high technology from Britain, joint ventures to improve our self-reliance, professional training in various fields and cooperation in the higher reaches of the Services Sector.

With Boris Johnson set to grace the occasion on our forthcoming Republic Day shortly, there may be a boost to the process.

India counts Britain as its sixth largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI). With $30 billion incoming over the last 20 years, it accounts for 6% of total FDI into India presently.

The UK will need to reorient its diplomatic relationship with India, as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have done. It will have to jettison some, if not all of its adversarial positions vis a vis Pakistani interests and those of China.

It must stop commenting on India’s internal matters, its politics, its leadership, certainly at any official level. This is necessary to clear the decks between the two countries. India is not interested in hectoring from its former colonial master, or partisan support given to a defeated Opposition.

The Leftist portions of British media and the Labour Party display a consistent hostility towards the Modi government. Calling an elected government all sorts of names is not endearing the British to the Indian establishment. Casting slurs on the majority Hindu community is also unacceptable.

India’s relative leverage to get sweeter terms as well as less interference in its internal affairs is now considerably enhanced. The various anti-India groups and lobbies that seem to operate freely in London and elsewhere in Britain will have to be reigned in.

If bold initiatives to reassure Indian sensitivities are undertaken by Britain, it will be first of all to its own benefit. Presently, India does have several alternatives such as France, Russia, the United States and Israel, for ongoing high technology cooperation, particularly in joint venture defence manufacturing.

Countries and companies relocating some of their manufacturing from China post the Covid-19 pandemic is also creating new possibilities and strategic depth.

Cooperation on the high seas, particularly in the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific with the QUAD nations of the US, Australia, India, Japan is attracting other regional players such as Vietnam and Singapore as well.

France, Britain and Germany, Russia have also begun to contribute naval power to the region as well. All these countries are developing a common strategy to keep the international shipping lanes in the region open and unhindered by Chinese hegemony. Britain’s commitment towards this changing world order will be of particular interest to India.

While Britain as we know it now may be truncated in the years ahead, it has much to contribute by way of expertise in multiple areas to a developing India.

It will be a new relationship, based not on the erstwhile Raj or the near pointless Commonwealth, but on 21^st century realities. This as the world begins the third decade of this century. And India enters its 75^th year as an independent democratic republic.

(956 words)

For: Sirfnews

December 29^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Stock Market Flies Saffron Flag, Opposition Hates Rages

Political audacity combined with a strong organisation storms straight ahead while dominating the flanks. It is the signature action of the saffron forces, now grown familiar. It does not take anything from the style of politics and governance with its constant self-service of the last many decades.

The unequal Opposition, caught flat-footed, thrown out of the citadels of power, plays old drums and flutes - threats, intimidation, murders, booth-capturing, minority appeasement, arson, riots, lies, embezzlement.

It all worked perfectly well once, the public was none the wiser, beguiled by promises that never seemed to reach their maturity. But now there is the sullen dullness that comes with knowing one has been betrayed. It results however in arrests of the old masters under draconian laws, and attachment of their properties for recompense.

As if on another plane altogether, the Sensex, Nifty, Midcap index and even the Bank Nifty are touching new highs despite an ongoing, though reducing, economic contraction.

There is less panic into gold and silver. Less worry about major bank collapse. Some revival in real estate. New reform for the long-neglected farming sector. There is a great deal of infrastructure building. It is probably the principal driver of the Indian economy through the six years of the Modi administration.

Bold reform, obscured sometimes by strident misinformation spread by the disgraced, in the key areas of labour, land, company law, digitisation, electricity, water, social injustice has been undertaken. More and more transformation is in the offing from this determined government. Our foreign affairs and diplomacy have been completely revamped. India’s position in the world has been rebooted.

Old power brokers and middlemen, rent-seeking bureaucrats, extortionists, commission agents, benami wealth hoarders, runaways, are all under pressure. Promises made again and again in the past are being delivered upon by this government.

The North East of the country has been drawn into the mainstream. Foreign investors are pouring money into the Indian bourses and into foreign direct investment (FDI). The foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high, close to $500 billion. Contrast this with the near bankruptcy of 1991 before the economy was liberalised.

 Now the foreign stock market players are apparently not daunted by steep  stock valuations because they are optimistic about the future. It is a liquidity rush yes, but far from mindless speculation.

There is expectation of a global end to Covid with several vaccines to tame it. And a shift of economic attention away from a very badly behaved China. It has become a predatory China, under a misguided CCP, with attitudes better suited to a long-departed age of imperialism. How much time before this 1949 born Red China comes unstuck and on its way to a democracy?

India is and will continue to benefit from standing up to China. The world has taken note. Armaments, organisation and force readiness on land, sea and air, is moving fast. Border area infrastructure is being rapidly completed. If there is a future conflict there is no doubt that India will acquit itself well.

Parts of the Opposition are seething in anger, motivated by hate and fear, unable to digest their rejection by the masses. This part of the Opposition cannot stand the idea of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP moving from strength to strength. Neither, of course, can inimical neighbours such as China and Pakistan. It is a sad thing, but parts of the Opposition have made common cause with anti-nationals, terrorists and other enemies of the nation.

The BJP has recently won decisively in Bihar alongside its ally the JD(U). It is about to repeat the performance in the border state of West Bengal plagued by Islamic aggression, terrorism and infiltration. This is openly supported by the presently ruling TMC, heavily dependent on the nearly 30% Muslim population. The demographics and the culture of the state have changed alarmingly, much to the quiet annoyance of the Hindu majority. West Bengal has enormous untapped economic potential. It is now firmly looking to the BJP for rescue. The chances of it coming to power in the 2021 assembly elections in the state gains ground every day.

On the national stage, India is showing the world not just the spectacle of the biggest democracy in action with its expert management of free elections, but also its talent for generating atmanirbhar chaos and bloodshed.

Those Communists, Leftist, Christian, Islamic, Maoist, Khalistani, Kashmiri hard-liners along with Pakistani and Chinese elements, who don’t want India to prosper, love the chaos.

But they can’t seem to make any appreciable dent by backing the weak, fractured, and rudderless Opposition. An Opposition with just a single point agenda. There is no positive or developmental vision at all that might have enthused the voters.

The arson, the loot, the street blockages, the atrocities, are funded by those who want to destroy the already hurting economy, and encourage the aggression of India’s enemies on its borders. They are not bothered about taking advantage of the damage done to the economy and health by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The lust to bring down the Modi government at any cost,  in spite of it being very popular with the voting masses, is  a difficult proposition. Admit it or not,  all the brickbats are boomeranging.

There are also substantial chunks of the non-aligned Opposition who vote with and support government initiatives. In parliament, the government’s domination in both houses is now evident. The electoral juggernaut too rolls on from the grassroot elections to panchayats, blocks, districts and city municipalities, all the way through the state assemblies and on towards the national elections.

Substantial money is coming in from near and far to fund the rabid sections of the Opposition. The protests and insurrections are well planned home productions. The return on investment though, is dismal.

Even the agent provocateurs are well known, often fiery, but ineffective. Many are out-of-office politicians, ageing, frustrated people, aided by some disgruntled state governments also in the fray. The entire bandwagon suffers from lack of credibility, rampant corruption, internal rivalries, and sheer jealousy of the success the government enjoys. It is an unequal contest, becoming more tilted against the would-be usurpers by the day.

One narrative is backed by the power of the government. The other by the powerless Opposition and its camp followers determined to trash the whole place if nothing else. The powerful government refuses to retaliate with violence. The powerless Opposition tries even greater provocation.

This has become a familiar see-saw over the last six years, in parliament, in the TV studious, in the speech-making, on the streets. There is arson, rape, murder, false news. There is a desperate scrambling for lost electoral traction, a search for  new leadership,  even as vested interests refuse to let go.

It is obvious the baton has passed decisively to the BJP and its brand of nationalist, majoritarian politics. The leadership here has dedication honesty and vision. It has an efficient organisation. The world can see it.

However, those who have lost after decades in power refuse to do so, even as they are staring at the imminent end of their line. The new year 2021 is about to dawn after a most difficult 2020. It will usher in a new decade, the third of the 21^st century.

India will prosper like never before, but it won’t be  thanks to the florid code that hid under the ‘Idea of India’. That made the majority Hindu ashamed of his grand heritage.

 Modi’s Atmanirbhar is not an inward-looking thing. It is getting out of the clutches of commission agents and needless imports. It is building a strong domestic military machine for the country’s defence and export. And this government’s ‘New India’ is a very different thing from the false secularism that preceded it. There is room in it for every nationalist of every caste, creed, region and religion, but none for those who want to destroy the country.   

(1,319 words)

For: WIONEWS

December 20^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Protest Against Farm Reform Laws Is A Conundrum Confounded

Reform in an entitled and entrenched system takes courage and commitment. The Narendra Modi government has demonstrated both in the passing of three farm laws that were long overdue. Some states and their farmers have hailed the new laws as they have begun to receive immediate benefits. These include BJP ruled Madhya Pradesh and surprisingly, given the stance taken by the party against the new laws, Congress ruled Rajasthan.

The new laws, amongst other things, have cast doubt on the longevity of the minimum support price regime going forward. Though there are no specific words to say it will be abolished or diluted. But the fact is that farmers do not have to sell their produce exclusively at government controlled mandis any more. Mandis where, the minimum support price (MSP), is operational on the procurement of all the wheat and paddy brought in. The middle-men use their influence with the government to see to it that all of it, even if the quality of some of it leaves something to be desired, is procured. There are  multiple bad practices ranging from fraudulent weighing-in, to false counts, all to manipulate the commissions they earn.

So, not insisting on bringing in the wheat and paddy and indeed all other crops, to these government controlled mandis is a potential blow to the people who control them and influence the minimum support price.

The farmers who have to pay the dictated commission to the middle-men on the MSP, can now realise more by selling directly to other merchants, exporters, processors, and end users. And the central government can be proud of having done something to stem the terminal decline of the actual farming sector.

The middle-men are naturally upset. It is an entrenched system in place for over 50 years that is being upended. They lose both income and clout if these laws work against them. They well might, though the farmer is free to continue as always. He is likely to do so for a proportion of his crop of wheat and paddy so as to keep in with the old order in parallel.

But the new laws give the ordinary farmer some options. The middle-man’s hold is so extensive at present, that the government in the states outsource their inspection and regulatory functions to them for ease of operation and, of course, a commission. The state also charges a tax on transactions at the mandis. It is said the politicians receive kickbacks and commissions too.

Rich farmers, some 6% of the total in Punjab are high consumers. They are both middle-men themselves and contracting overlords that engage poor farmers to work their own land for the lion’s share of benefits. They control remuneration and payments. They provide farming inputs and maintain never paid-up books of the poor farmers’ debt. It is another form of the abolished zamindari system of yore and essentially tyrannical.

The coming of the new laws has drawn attention to the minimum sale price (MSP) mechanism applicable to government procurement of just wheat and paddy.

It is an anachronistic rule left-over from an era of food grain shortages in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. There is no need for the government to buy and hoard so much wheat and paddy in a food surplus nation, even for strategic purposes. Much of it is sold to alcohol makers at huge losses when it becomes unfit for consumption.

In 2020 or 2021, when bumper surpluses of wheat and paddy production has been the norm from various states for several years now, it makes little sense to have an MSP mechanism at all.

But, like the varna system that was designed to facilitate occupational categories, it has solidified over time. Like the caste system, MSP too has morphed into something rigid, even as its purpose and need have vanished. Today, it supports a vast class of agents who live off the work of the farmers without doing any farming. The system disincentivises the production of other crops or vegetables too.

Paddy in particular consumes huge quantities of scarce ground water and much canal water in Punjab and Haryana. It has also created the stubble burning menace because of multiple annual crops. Paddy is a crop from heavily rain-fed areas of the country, and not native to Punjab and Haryana at all.

MSP now often acts as a maximum price, higher than the free market. It  results in huge procurent costs estimated at over rupees eight lakh crore. It artificially inflates procurement prices for the public distribution system.

The public distribution system (PDS) itself, which once catered to many people from the middle-class in addition to the poor, is no longer as important.

It was, in the years of scarcity, a means of accessing price controlled, subsidised, food items. That its grain and sugar and cereals were often sub-standard was offset by cheaper than market offerings. Items such as  heavily subsidised kerosene, was used widely for cooking and lighting in rural and semi-urban areas in those times. Now kerosene is not subsidised at all, and is in any case, no longer in vogue, after the wide advent of LPG and widespread electricity.

The PDS system and ration cards are mostly history. Most people prefer buying their needs in the open market these days. While there can be an argument for the government maintaining buffer stocks in case of crop failure or other calamity, the proportions are not to the extent that MSP produces.

Systems put in place when India suffered from acute staple food shortages have no relevance now. Surplus wheat and paddy emanating from multiple states are rotting in Food Corporation of India (FCI) godowns.

Use Of mandatory government mandis was once prescribed to prevent  private hoarding. Now, it is just a mandi with out-of-date extraordinary powers.  Money-Lenders,(Arthiyas), rule the roost, and make a virtue out of their hand-holding. They provide inputs required by the farmer, some cash, but all of it at rapacious rates of interest. Besides they take the bulk of the profits via their commissions.

Farmers do face multiple hazards from the vagaries of the weather, pests, crop failure, need for money for the next planting, other expenses, including marriages. The relationship with Arthiyas, like the village money-lender, is symbiotic. But it is also extremely exploitative. It can, of course, continue for its virtues and its familiarity, but not with the balance of power stacked so heavily in favour of the money-lenders.

Some of the slack may well be taken up by corporate demand and contract farming with better terms than the rich farmers. Digitisation and the introduction of high-speed internet into remote villages has given the farmer power to sell to whomsoever he likes. To say he is too ignorant to do a job of it is self-serving on the part of the Arthiyas. To bully the ordinary farmer to support what is a money-lender agitation along with various other disgruntled elements such as Islamists and Khalistanis is inevitable.

The Modi government has pledged that it will double farmer income. Partially, this is already happening via subsidies paid directly into the accounts of the farmers. These new farm laws may well enable farmers to grow lucrative crops and sell them directly at good prices to those who buy directly from them. Prime Minister Modi has recently declared in favour of standing firm over the farm laws. His government has decided to change the future for the ordinary farmer. Agitations by vested interests always occur when reform is afoot- but they rarely succeed.

(1,254 words)

For: Sirfnews

December 6^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Hail-Mary Keep-Counting US Presidential Election

What was expected by pollsters to be a comfortable win for the Democrat Biden-Harris ticket has turned into a nail-biter. Vice-president Joe Biden’s lead in the days and months leading up to election day was near 10% throughout. His campaign was aimed at healing America’s soul, allegedly fractured by Donald Trump’s presidency.

But in the election results out so far, it is apparent that Trump continues to enjoy considerable support throughout America. Biden, like Hillary Clinton in 2016, does indeed lead in the popular vote, but the slog-overs are in the Electoral Votes.

 The House of Representatives, or Congress, continues to be in a Democrat majority, while the Senate remains with the Republicans. This is as it was in the Trump presidency’s latter days. This bipartisan situation makes passing legislation an onerous process for either side.

The Republican Trump-Pence ticket looks within striking distance of its second term in power. However, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, there are unprecedented  numbers of postal ballots.

Trump could win if key ‘battleground’ states still in play fall to them. At this point they include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

The controversy on when the postal ballots, post-marked November 3^rd  latest, should be counted till, is  still rife. Democrats say, it should go on till the last vote is counted. The Republicans suspect there may be frauds perpetrated if this is allowed over large stretches of time.  

The postal ballots, run into their millions in this election. The ultimate result will be determined after the slow and careful count is finally over. Here again, the pollster’s wisdom had it that these were mostly Democrat votes, particularly amongst the early voters much before election day November 3^rd.   But in the counting, of those ballots that came in on election day post-marked November 3^rd, this is not always borne out. So last minute surprises could happen, as the counts are continually pulling both ways.

Joe Biden has counselled patience and shown confidence in the ultimate outcome, expecting it to be in his favour. Trump has claimed he has already won and accused the Democrats of trying to ‘steal’ the election via fraudulent postal ballots, including dead-man Democrat votes, fudged signatures, and biased decision-making in Democrat heavy states. He has called for a recount in Wisconsin if the Courts agree.

Trump has, in fact, already initiated several lawsuits over the mail-in ballots, verification of data incorporated, including signatures, the time they came in, versus the cut-off deadline, and so on. Then there is the correct process of counting itself, supervised by representatives of both parties. There is even an independent arbitrator in most locations.

However, some legal observers regard the proposed litigation as unlikely to be effective. They call them Hail Mary law suits based on Game Theory. They could, if accepted by the Courts, further delay the final outcome, result in recounts and modified rules of counting the mail-in votes, result in Democrat counter-suits, that would complicate the terms of engagement.

This may be important however, because America is a federation, with each state allowed to make its own processes and rules on the postal voting. And all of it may not be even-handed.

What is clear, away from the actual voting, is the almost equal division of perception about what matters, and how America should be run. There is little focus on America’s place in the world. Instead the gaze is turned inwards on America’s fractured sense of unity and huge economic disparities between the haves and have-nots.

The polarisation between the Left-leaning Democrats and the Right-of-centre Republicans seems to have hardened. White America is anxious about the impact of growing numbers of Blacks, Hispanics, impoverished and sometimes illegal immigrants, other minorities including real and potential Islamic terrorists. They are scared of being swamped as demographic shifts are taking place quite rapidly. White Supremacists are stirring up passions. Shootings and murders are on the rise. Immigration from all but a few European countries has been tightened.

With recent rioting in different parts of the country, there is consternation about the increasing assertiveness of groups backed and financed by shadowy near-Communist style organisations. Are foreign governments involved?

International relations, including the contentious relationship with an imperialist China, is nevertheless perceived as less of a burning issue for most Americans. At the best of times, Americans are mostly not very interested in the rest of the world, except for traditional ties to London and Paris. Visiting Europe is a rite-of-passage for many to appreciate the old world from where most White Americans came generations ago.

President Trump in 2020 gets high marks for his handling of the domestic economy and is criticised for downplaying the pandemic. Vice President Joe Biden, if he wins, is expected to come to the rescue of the poor with more giveaways and higher taxes on the better off.

There is hope in the hearts of Black people for a Democrat victory, though not all Black people or Hispanics have voted Democrat by any means.

But in the end, the postal ballots, and the controversies they have led to, including incorrect ballot papers sent out, are reminiscent of the problems with the ‘pregnant chads’ during the first bid to the presidency of Republican George W Bush. That happened in Florida which Trump has won this time. That dispute in 2000 with Democrat Al Gore went to the Supreme Court. And it took 36 days to finally give the state to Bush  after it stopped the counting. It resulted in making Bush president.

This time, it is possible that one or the other could reach the required 270 electoral votes before the last vote is counted, but will that be accepted by the other side?

(953 words)

November 5^th, 2020

For: WIONEWS

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Pushback Against Terrorism Is Gaining Ground Globally

For a very long time, through the second half of the 20^th century, as the world shrank, became globalised, and increasingly enlightened in its attitudes, the old prejudices declined. There were even those who bent over backwards to set things right.

Racism, with its horrific history connected with slavery, colonialism, imperialism and the agrarian economy, was not only frowned upon, there was legislation against it. Diversity and multi-ethnicity was encouraged in Europe and America and other parts of the First World. Immigration policies, largely based on mandatory Caucasian and Judeo-Christian applicants, became broad-minded. A steady trend began towards ignoring, colour, race, language, religious and cultural differences, even lack of education, in immigration policy. The West was keen to make amends for the sins of the past.

It was thought assimilation into a more prosperous and welcoming environment, often under-populated, offering education, health benefits, other welfare initiatives, jobs, would help it happen automatically. It was, we know now, a romantic notion. Instead, hostile ghettoes of immigrants sprang up with no appreciation for the Western values that had let them in.

It is an understandable mistake because in the past, when down-trodden European, Jewish, some Asian groups, became new citizens, it had worked very well. Many of these sometimes impoverished new entrants are admired for their industry, and made rapid strides within a generation. Refugees were accepted as an act of social consciousness and affirmative action against the horrors of war-torn parts of the world.

But of course, this was before immigrants were being radicalised and instigated by their community leaders to take over their host countries.

Other nations, principally functioning democracies, with large minority populations such as India, frowned on religious discrimination as well. They defined their inclusive policies as the very essence of secularism. While this did not always go down well with the majority, public policy saw to it that their views were ignored.

 It may even be said to have worked tolerably well at first over nearly five decades.  But in the early part of the 21^st century, soon after the millennium, this changed. The liberal world, we can see clearly now, came under attack from a shadowy and ideological enemy. The liberals were welcome to provide a shield, but they too were to be pushed aside when the time came.

9/11, in 2001, was an unprecedented terrorist attack on American soil. It was aimed  at its thriving commercial heart, located in Manhattan, New York, and its military and political centre in Washington D.C. It claimed more than 3,000 civilian lives, those of some security men and several firemen. The nearest thing in the American experience was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour that brought America into  WWII. 

A similar landmark occasion in Mumbai, India, was 26/11, in 2008, which followed on from several earlier bombings in retaliation for the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya.

But 26/11 was a stand-alone act of terror sponsored by neighbouring Pakistan. Like 9/11,  it was designed to intimidate. It was an unprovoked strike at India that succeeded, unlike a similar attempt made on its parliament and its members in New Delhi subsequently.  It was aimed at the commercial capital, targeting an iconic luxury hotel used by foreigners and the Indian elite, its main down town railway terminus, even its hospitals. The small and floating Jewish presence by way of Mumbai’s Chabad House, was also attacked. All the casualties, running into their hundreds, barring the some military and police personnel, were civilians, including several foreigners, Europeans and Americans amongst them.

 There are many less spectacular occasions of exported terror, mostly connected to Pakistan and its infamous ISI. These took place both before and after these marquee occasions, around the world. Some involved military and diplomatic installations, others were purely civilian or political targets.

But for a long time, the country most affected was India, followed by Israel. Terrorist attacks were not frequent in Europe, America, Australia or New Zealand. Prime Minister Modi has never made an international speech without highlighting the scourge of international terrorism. He has urged the free world to unite in the necessary fight, and this is gradually gaining momentum now.

The terrorists, on their part, have increasingly picked on non-military soft targets, hoping to provoke a backlash. This would then create a domestic cycle of violence and retaliation and give terror the desired local roots.

By the third decade of the 21^st century, it appears that terror has got its wish, even as it has sown the seeds of its ultimate destruction as the world comes together against it.. It has indeed struck global roots, with local and home grown incidents becoming very frequent.  Following on from France, to Russia, to Canada, India, and so on,  terror strikes have happened within just one week of the news cycle.

France under President Macron has decided to push back. The EU has decided to support it. So has India. And Russia, and a slew of other countries such as Saudi Arabia. The Scandanavians are threatening deportation and cancellation of citizenship. India is now formally legislating against the pernicious practice of “love jihad”.  America under President Trump, and indeed since 9/11, has been tightening up its immigration and surveillance policies.

What has changed drastically in recent days however is the liberal stance towards this  violence. The old argument that terrorists actually have no religion is not being readily accepted anymore. Being offended over perceived insults and injustices cannot be used as an excuse to unleash murderous violence. Nor can it justify rioting, arson and murder is the prevailing view.

This change in the sympathetic liberal mindset that has given succour to supposedly dispossessed and poor people, is not willing to be taken advantage of any longer.

In India, the minorities are gradually being asked to face up to their responsibilities as Indian citizens instead of over emphasising their rights. It is a big shift from the appeasement policies of the past. But it is by no means an unreasonable demand. There will be no going back. The sponsors of cross-border terrorism and the financing of embedded terror groups in this country are coming under increased pressure. There is a shift in public awareness that makes anti-state and anti-national activity difficult. India is dealing with native minorities, but the world at large is fed up.

Barring a couple of isolated countries which are in deep economic trouble, the support for terrorism is shrinking rapidly. Any escalation of violence will be met with determined resistance.  There is no future for terror as a political tool anywhere in the world.  

 (1,097 words)

For: WIONEWS

November 2^nd, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

The World Order Is Changing

India is waiting to welcome US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper in person to New Delhi.

They are coming for the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. The importance of a face-to-face meeting in this season of virtual meetings and summits cannot be lost sight of. The US wants to bolster India’s resistance and others in this SAARC region, to an imperialist Red China.

President-for-life Xi Jinping’s leadership of China eerily resembles the attitudes that animated belligerent regimes from centuries past. That this kind of behaviour has always consolidated the opposition, leading to its downfall and destruction is lost on the Chinese leadership.

Like the tragic happenings occasioned by the two world wars, and the almost constant territorial warfare in the age of monarchs before them, the aggressive power is intoxicated by the notion that it can prevail. That it can stamp its domination upon the world. That it will fail in the attempt is preordained, but some leaders refuse to learn from history.

The 2+2 is the third such annual meeting, but this one is in the context of over 60,000 PLA troops with masses of military equipment on the LaC at Eastern Ladakh, and other points of the long Tibetan border area.

China has used the PLA to be consistently aggressive, and its state- controlled media to be absurdly propagandist against India. It has wilfully blocked progress on several rounds of military and diplomatic dialogue. It has made provocative statements saying China does not recognise Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory.

America, on its part, has asserted that the regions are very much part of India. America has also criticised the Chinese belligerence at Eastern Ladakh. The narrative however may be about to shift gears. A stiffening of stance, with overt India-US military cooperation is on the cards now.

The US presidential elections may be just days away, but the Trump administration is not behaving like the traditional lame duck. It is busy transforming West Asia, as Oman and Saudi Arabia move to recognise Israel with full diplomatic relations and normalised ties.

This is in addition to the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan, who are already on board. Apart from Ayatollah-run Shiite Iran, opposed to the US at present, the entire Gulf region is expected to follow suit.

Egypt has long normalised relations with Israel from the days of Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin. But there are others in the Middle East- Iraq, Tunisia, Morocco, a cooperative Jordan, and conceivably, in due course, even Syria, that could become allies of Israel instead of uncomfortable and occasionally hostile neighbours.

The Palestinian Authority has been losing diplomatic traction for years, and may have to settle its future on Israeli terms. America signalled its intent by agreeing to the movement of the Israeli capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, moving its embassy subsequently, more or less at the beginning of Donald Trump’s first term in 2016. Trump spent a night in Jerusalem rather than Tel Aviv to illustrate this.

So Turkey, under a revanchist Erdogan, with its allies Malaysia and Pakistan, may not have history on its side. It is futile for Erdogan to claim Jerusalem for the Palestinian Authority.

Most of Sunni Arabia, long put upon to finance the bottomless pit of Palestinian penury, is not willing to finance its obduracy any more. There is no economic viability for the Palestinian Authority without coming to sensible terms with Israel. The most likely outcome is a merger with safeguards and assurances, though it may take considerable and detailed talks.

But if this is what happens, the politics of West Asia will have changed dramatically. A new, less bloody and jihadist age could well dawn. This, even as the income from oil and gas, that has dominated the balance sheets for half a century, cannot pay for more than a third of expenses going forward.

West Asia will necessarily turn to opportunities in India as a large, growing economy, in need of much development investment,  sitting on its doorstep.

In our region, South Asia, the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific, maritime matters are now of paramount importance. Chinese attempts to dominate the oceans, with its increasingly large blue water navy are alarming. This is in addition to its ill-advised attempt to grab the South and East China Seas.

China also dreams of dominating the Gulf region via its base at Gwadar and its alliances with both Pakistan and Iran. It has set up naval bases in all except name at Sri Lanka, the Maldives, on the Red Sea at Djibouti. It is looking for toe-holds in Myanmar, The Seychelles, and ever as far away as Venezuela.

But all this will come to nought with or without armed conflicts with China. The rest of the world is reordering itself to resist. Our own dialogue with the US, France, Britain and other NATO and US allies is moving steadily towards military partnerships. The four member QUAD on the seas already conjoins India, Japan, the US and Australia. The Andaman Islands, at the mouth of the Malacca Straits, through which 80% of Chinese shipping passes now, could well be the QUAD’s base.

In Pakistan, a new push-back against the Pakistan Army and the ISI has begun in no uncertain terms. This is spearheaded by a eleven party coalition, The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), is led by PDM President Maulana Fazlur Rehman from Balochistan, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his political heir, daughter Maryam Nawaz with their base in Lahore Punjab, Bilawal Bhutto the heir apparent of the Sindh based PPP, and others.  They are collectively determined to oust prime minister Imran Khan, seen to be an Army puppet.

The Army and ISI are in turn seen to have messed up the Pakistani economy and polity. There is resentment with the increasing Chinese presence and the massive corruption within the Army and the ISI, while the people starve.

With well-attended rallies coming thick and fast in various parts of Pakistan, the Army and ISI can, of course, crack down and impose martial law. This has been the option exercised several times before, most recently by former dictator Parvez Musharraf.

Since armed clashes have already occurred between the Karachi Police and the Army, resulting in casualties on both sides, things may be getting out of hand. There are long festering insurgencies also in Gilgit Baltistan, Balochistan, Pakhtoonistan, and now, new ones brewing even in Sindh and Punjab.

Otherwise, The Pakistan Army and the ISI, seen as much too involved in every aspect of governance, will be forced to share power with this new formation. But this will mean loss of face and control for the generals.

China cannot be happy about this development, given the scale of its financial investment into the CPEC, and its cosy relationship with the biddable Pakistan Army generals. But can the Army hold the country together if it cracks down?

General Javed Bajwa, who gave himself a three-year extension using Imran Khan’s rubber stamp, has his detractors within the Pakistan Army. There could well be a counter coup.

For India, with the dragon breathing hard in Ladakh, this instability in Pakistan may disrupt Chinese plans of a two-pronged attack on India. On the other hand, if the Pakistan Army does attack India, either directly to distract the country from its internal issues, or indirectly, via any major terrorist attack, India may be justified in conquering PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan.

This won’t be possible, of course, without taking on China at Ladakh at the same time. And this is where a newly re-elected Donald Trump will be of crucial importance to keep China under severe pressure.

Certainly, the world order is changing dramatically, and propelling India into a higher trajectory as a consequence. We have much to look forward to at the end of our trials and tribulations of the present.

(1,312 words)

For: SirfNews

October 25^th 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

West Bengal Is Not An Island Unto Itself

The problem of economic decline in West Bengal has both policy and philosophical reasons. At the most basic level, it calls for a shifting of gears to get away from an entrenched mindset. One that has taken it into a downward spiral for decades now. This despite harbouring some of the most talented, artistic, educated and intelligent Indians who have distinguished themselves in state, elsewhere, and around the world.

Its financial problems, psychological isolation, increasing ghettoization, apathy, squalor, and deep feelings of victimhood, make for quite a witch’s brew.

And the indoctrination of communism on top of a prevalent socialism, in place for three decades of earlier Left Front rule, has successfully politicised everyone. Bengalis who live in West Bengal are consequently very aware of their rights, but are insouciant and cavalier about their duties. Who wants to be a productive citizen anyway?

Discipline destroyed by Maoist rhetoric, all industry that could flee has long fled as a consequence. So has much of the trade and the jobs that once had everybody flocking to Calcutta.

Fifty years under Communist and populist TMC rule, to over 70 years, under earlier Congress governments, have a common refrain. West Bengal feels left out. It feels cheated. It has always been at war with the central government. And if the central government does not cater to absurd demands, it is, of course, biased against the people of the place.

This attitude has been true right from its very creation as a state. It was carved out from the erstwhile Bengal Presidency during the Raj. That was a much grander entity. It included today’s Bihar, Odisha, Assam and, of course Bangladesh. This also accounts for a good measure of Bengali middle-class arrogance with regard to its neighbours and indeed the fellows at the Centre.

In addition to Calcutta being the capital of British India, ranging over practically all of what is SAARC today, plus parts of the Arabian Gulf and Myanmar, then called Burma. There it was, most prominent during the two world wars and the economic boom that accompanied them. Nobody felt very bad about earlier setbacks then. Calcutta, with its big city lights, music, beautiful women and fine dining, was renowned for its glamour. It was called the Paris of the East.

The loss of gradual power and pre-eminence over the years has been felt keenly.  This perspective has plagued and influenced every state government of Tagore’s state from right after independence. Particularly when it found itself in trouble for not keeping its promises.

Not for West Bengal the determination of Israel, to build from scratch despite the horrendous persecution of Jews in Europe. Perhaps that sort of bootstrapping does not exist in the Indian ethos, let alone in this eastern state.

The various West Bengal governments have, in effect, refused to move on, preferring nostalgia and romanticism. They have fallen behind many others, and get away with development projects that are decades in the execution.

If current woes are thought insufficient, the state’s rulers have not shied away from referencing the first partition of Bengal in 1905, the transfer of the capital of British India to Delhi in 1911, the painful partition of 1947 at independence, and the massive Bangladeshi refugee influx of 1971.

These are all substantial blows to the Bengali psyche to be sure. But what is the use of crying over so much spilt milk? Especially when there is so much to do.

Governments of West Bengal have used these same old woundings to imply they have reasons for their shortcomings of governance and economic progress. That it wears thin as an alibi after more than 70 years of independence does not seem to bother the residents of the state either.

They seem content with cock and bull justifications and ideological rationale of sorts. The poor prefer being bought out with handouts and doles to any real progress. This is reflected in their voting patterns, their clinging to the misery they know. They are wary of venturing into new pastures. But if the BJP puts enough money into the effort of ousting the TMC, they might do well yet.

It won’t be easy. There are enforcers at large that deliver swift retribution to any that stray from the party in power’s directives. If you  have taken the TMC government’s salt, you must deliver your end of the bargain.

West Bengal politicians, almost all of them ethnic Bengalis, has always held themselves largely blameless for the state of affairs. Throughout the 20^th century, and now going into the third decade of the 21^st, they have felt short-changed by the higher powers. Making the murky most of it is second nature now. Idealism is all but dead.

Successive narratives say this is through no fault of West Bengal’s own. Those guerrilla attacks on the British were the work of nationalists. And later, Naxalite attacks upon its own were attempts to secure social justice.

The biggest problem is this alternate universe that the residents of this front-line state have created for themselves.

There is a serious infiltration and terrorist undercurrent sheltering amongst the nearly 30% Muslim population of the state. Bangladeshis. Rohingyas and Pakistani operatives are proliferating under the benign gaze and abetment of the state government. But it is busy consolidating a loyal minority vote-bank.

The state police are misused to serve the ruling government’s purpose. Central agencies are blocked and stone-walled. The finances of the state government are diverted to its purposes in an opaque manner. Government and TMC Party scams are never investigated.

In the end, will it take President’s Rule, using the anarchy, arson, mayhem and murder, also rampant, as reasons? It could, for a short time, but then there must be elections held.

Do the people of West Bengal trust the so-called ‘outsider’ BJP that rules in so many other states and the centre? It does not seem likely from all the exposed evidence. Though there are some reports surfacing on acute anti-incumbency. The TMC has hired Prashant Kishor, a sought after political consultant, to improve its chances.

But West Bengal does get fed up eventually. When it ousted the Left Front, after more than 30 years in favour of the TMC, there was little of the groundswell showing to political observers. But the rout, when it came, was almost absolute.

This time around, the BJP has made some ingress, in the general elections, winning 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats, if not so much in the state assembly, or the municipalities, the panchayats.

Can it sweep clean, based on a dissatisfaction amongst the Hindu majority that is yet to be particularly vocal about it? It seems unlikely, given the stranglehold of the TMC.

However, if it is political integration of the state with the national mainstream and economic progress that is desired, there is no alternative but to vote in the BJP.

It looked very unlikely in Assam before it happened.  But BJP did oust Congress from a stronghold of many years. Likewise in Tripura, where the Communists were defeated by them after decades in power. The RSS cadres have been working quietly in West Bengal, as they had been in Tripura and Assam.

But intellectualised West Bengal is an enigma. Its people prefer politics to progress and prosperity or have done so for a very long time. Much will be revealed in 2021 when the assembly elections are held.

Will it re-elect the ageing Mamata Banerjee and her virtually one person corrupt dictatorship, or will it take the plunge and usher in the Lotus.

Will it dare to give power to the much feared North Indian led non-Bengali? This force will have Bengali front-men of course. Still, it will combine readily with the naturalised if not native Marwaris, Sindhis, Punjabis et al? Can parochial West Bengal stomach this, weighed against its steady Islamisation? Time will tell.

(1,312 words)

For: Bengal Thinks

19^th October 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

Continuity, Economy & Militarism: New Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga Of Japan's Plate Is Full 

Continuity, Economy & Militarism: New Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan’s Plate Is Full

On ailing but long-serving Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation, earlier this month, Japan’s Conservative Liberal Democratic party (LDP), elected his Chief Cabinet Secretary as Party leader.

Most of the LDP factions united to give Suga a 70% majority on September 14^th.  Two days later, Yoshihide Suga was elected prime minister by Japan’s Diet.

 71 year old Suga has, in recognition of the support he has received, swiftly reappointed most of the heavyweights in Shinzo Abe’s outgoing cabinet.  However, a new face is attracting both interest and attention. It is Shinzo Abe’s younger brother Nobuo Kishi, appointed defence minister.

The Abe cabinet’s defence minister, Taro Kano, also a former foreign minister, was shifted to Administrative Reforms.

With increased Chinese and North Korean belligerence on Japan’s doorstep,  Shinzo Abe was already building a consensus on whether Japan should militarise more sharply. In fact, Japan has been steadily improving its indigenous armaments industry under Abe.  

Now Kishi, though new to the defence arena, will take the agenda forward. In a pointedly pacifist Japan post WWII, it was only allowed a token military capacity. Japan has been long dependent on American military protection, including its nuclear weapons umbrella. This protection applies to Taiwan in the region as well.

But giving the vastly altered political, economic and military landscape in 2020, the time has come to accelerate Japan’s own military preparedness in the face of an ever growing Chinese military.  

 Japan, like Taiwan, recognises it needs a much improved and bigger offensive capacity in the event of war. It must vastly upgrade its Army, Navy and Air Force. It needs weapons that can strike missile launch sites in North Korea and China.

That Shinzo Abe signed a treaty with India for mutual access to each other’s military facilities just days before handing over the baton is indicative. Suga and Kishi are likely to take matters forward.

 As the world’s third largest, Japan’s economy, already long in recession, plagued by indebtedness,  an ageing population, labour shortages, is now in distress. The Covid-19 pandemic has damaged the Japanese economy further. For Suga, as he has already indicated, economic issues will take centre stage. He wants to move sharply on greater digitisation for example.

There is the difficult question on when to hold the Tokyo Olympics, expected to be a substantial revenue earner, but postponed for a year by the pandemic already.

Economic issues may also become crucial in order to win the next elections. This even though the Japanese opposition is in fair disarray.

A number of Japanese manufacturers are being assisted financially by the Japanese government to move out of China. They will relocate, to India, and other countries. Japan enjoys a very good relationship with Vietnam also.

Taro Aso, a former prime minister was retained by Suga as the finance minister, as was Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s seniormost diplomat, as foreign minister. Suga himself has travelled very little outside Japan, though he has been successful at developing tourism to Japan.

Overall, Yoshihide Suga is credited with being an excellent administrator. He was virtually Abe’s shadow prime minister. Suga has risen to the top job in Japanese politics despite having no family background in it. He is the son of a strawberry farmer from Akita Prefecture. Suga is certainly no political blueblood like his mentor Shinzo Abe. But this may work well for him and the LDP with the every-man on the street.  

This change of guard in Japan comes at a critical juncture for India and its place in the world.  Its nearly five month old military and economic confrontation with China promises to be a game-changer. It is qualitatively different from the policy positions India has taken in the past. This time, India is pushing back against Chinese imperialism in no uncertain terms. The outcome,  is thought by many learned observers, as likely to go in India’s favour. This, if an armed conflict, even a two-front war breaks out, involving both China and its ally Pakistan.  India is battle hardened with professional soldiers, and China is practically untested and has a largely conscripted military low on morale and ability.

The way the world is looking at this stand-off is already significant. Even before it has come to war, it is already impacting strategic calculations. The ground is shifting in South Asia, the Indian Ocean region, West Asia, South-East Asia and the Asia-Pacific. That India is standing up to Chinese bullying without flinching is an inspiration to many other countries.  

It is also germane to the US and NATO alliance and its notions of geo-politics in the region, the Indo-Russian relationship, the emerging Quad Nations of Japan, the US, Australia and India. It has intensified the developing relationship with Israel and the Gulf countries of West Asia. They too are overcoming old dogmas and forging historical ties never seen before. China may be with Iran, Turkey and Pakistan, but is it working for them?

China is in truth on the backfoot. This is of course, not just because of India. Japan is watching closely. The freedom of the seas and its sea lanes in the South China Sea, the safety of the Japanese islands in the East China Sea, affect Japan - but others in the region as well.  South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, The Philippines, Indonesia, are all being intimidated by China as well.

Several countries are reeling from the debt traps they have walked into with the Chinese, including Cambodia and Sri Lanka, and of course, Pakistan. Others, like Bangladesh and Myanmar are teetering on the brink.

China’s sharp trade practices, including dumping of goods at vastly reduced prices to cripple competition and industry from elsewhere, is also now being challenged with boycotts and sanctions.

All this flux for China could well present huge economic opportunity for Japan, as more and more countries turn away from predatory China following India’s lead.

Suga may well see in an economic boom for Japan if he plays his cards right. That the pushback to China is backed by the Western powers provides an excellent backstop.

The relationship with India, is ripe for improving to the next level. It has been warming up ever since the arrival of the Modi administration in 2014 and the personal chemistry between Shinzo Abe and Narendra Modi. Now,  if both countries strike while the iron is hot, it could assume stellar proportions.

(1,059 words)

September 17^th,2020

For: WIONEWS

Gautam Mukherjee

 Splittism Is The Nightmare Of The Red Emperor

Splittism Is The Nightmare of the Red Emperor

Splittism is a term used by President Xi Jinping. Most recently, he applied it to Tibet, pointing at its religious, political and cultural dissidence. His ire is directed at the glue of Buddhism there. He has vowed to turn Tibet into a Han fortress.

Of late, the off-balance “Red Emperor”, plagued by many devils, deals mostly in threats and insults. His “Might is Right” playbook is being roundly challenged everywhere, and he has been reacting boorishly.

 The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) has not been able to stamp out the spirit of Tibetan freedom in all the time since it was overrun in 1950. This despite the Tibetans being more or less unarmed.

Perhaps the need for a fresh bout of repression has become urgent now because of unexpected Indian resistance. India now refuses to cede any more surreptitiously grabbed territory, and has demonstrated some intent to get back a lot of it lost to China since 1962.

India has pointedly spearheaded its military tactics along with a Tibetan commando force made up from Tibetan exiles. A Tibetan government in exile also watches and waits in India along with the ousted Dalai Lama.

Recently a Buddhist monastery was demolished in Eastern Tibet. Earlier, Tibetan Prayer Flags were routinely pulled down. Monks have been roughed up and sometimes killed. Tibetans have been urged to be grateful for the benefits of development brought by China. They are expected to integrate with the Han majority.

Xi Jinping likes to trample on cultural, political and religious identity. And not just those of the Buddhists, Christians and Muslims located in China. He expects to break resistance this way. Recently he aimed some of his venom at India too.

Shortly after India upgraded a road to the LaC to make it easier for Hindu pilgrims to visit Kailash Mansarovar and Kailash Parbat, China chose to site missiles and a military base at the foot of Mount Kailash. A place regarded by Hindus as the sacred abode of Lord Shiva.

Splittism is now plaguing a faltering China on every side. President Xi Jinping is fighting multiple challenges to his sway in the CCP. One powerful challenger in the heart of the CCP, is Premier Li Keqiang. Increasing information flow has blown the lid off the power struggle. There have been a series of leaks to the media on different aspects of the ravaged Chinese economy, normally kept well hidden from the world. Li Keqiang has been raising concerns about the plight of millions of the Chinese poor, with suggestions, facts and figures. Bad Debt laden Chinese banks are struggling to survive. Factories are closed. There are publicly acknowledged food shortages. Floods, pestilence, the recent pandemic from Wuhan, have all taken their toll.

Retired military brass have also weighed in. One of them, an Airforce retired Major General Qiao Liang, in his book called Unrestricted Warfare  first suggested the development of a deadly virus that is then exported to the world. President Xi seems to have implemented this idea, with disastrous consequences not only for the world, but China itself.

But lately, the retired generals, Liang and Dai Xu in particular, want Xi to change course. They want him to stop the aggression on the borders with India, against Taiwan and other targets. They feel China is stretching military resources too thin by opening so many fronts simultaneously. It is also unifying the opposition to China.

But a roll-back would mean loss of face for Xi Jinping. He seems unwilling to show weakness though he seems frustrated enough. But others, such as the Defence Minister and the Foreign Minister seem highly stressed.

In counterpoint to all the splittism, Xi Jinping has ramped up his favourite weapon of an anti-corruption drive. This campaign, a favourite device, tends to wax and wane. It is a thinly veiled purging mechanism. It gets rid of Communist functionaries that are opposed to Xi in the name of action against corruption. Dozens have been removed from office, particularly in troubled Xinjiang.. The other side of the coin has Xi Jinping and his family, along with others close to him, involved in massive accumulation of offshore wealth.  As much as $ 4 trillion has allegedly found its way out of China and into secret accounts abroad.

On splittism there is no mercy. Christian churches are demolished and Bibles burnt. Inner Mongolians are told to forget their native tongue and learn Mandarin. Uighurs in Xinjiang are put in detention camps for re-education. Mosques are razed and Korans shredded. Beards are banned, along with Muslim worship. Han minders are sent to cohabit with Uighur women while their men are being re-educated. 

 In Hong Kong the protests are much more visible to the outside world. Xi Jinping sees them as unpatriotic and infected by British taught democratic aspirations. The crackdown there is equally brutal even as other countries pile up the economic  boycotts and sanctions on China.

Military posturing to conquer Taiwan and occupy the South China Sea have brought the United States military into the arena. The East China Sea is being patrolled by Japan. Other navies and airforces - Australian, Indian, French, Russian, are watching the Indian Ocean, the Malacca Straits, the South China Sea, and everywhere else there is a Chinese presence.  

The spectre of splittism haunts all dictatorships of the Left and Right.  However, it is the only perceived remedy to the extreme concentration of power. Apart, that is, from regime change. Stalin must have had his own one word Cossack moniker for the phenomenon. It has always brought on humungous purges and drawn torrents of blood. But it is a recurring suspicion, and doesn’t quite feel assuaged no matter how many, or how hard, it strikes.

 It even finds prominence in democracies, in those pockets that are electorally captured by despotic political parties and ruled by a single person and his or her family. Sometimes this lack of inner party democracy leads to change, just as in a dictatorship.

In the beleaguered Indian State of West Bengal, for a half century under the lash of Communist and populist but parochial, chauvinist rule already, splittism has surfaced. It is not enough to call it anti-incumbency, because the ruling Trinamool Congress is now being ripped apart from within. This is very significant, given that it sends 42 members to parliament, and West Bengal has a 294 member assembly.  

Political strategist Prashant Kishor and his firm Indian Political Action Committee (I-PAC), has found trouble brewing. The assessment was done between March and August 2020, even as the Covid 19 pandemic rages on. This year, Cylone Amphan has also devastated Kolkata and parts of West Bengal.

I-PAC conducted three separate surveys, a month apart, across the 294 Assembly constituencies in the state. What was looking like 110 sure seats in TMC’s kitty in March, plummeted to 78 in August. In 2016, TMC won 211 seats. The one past the half-way mark in the West Bengal Assembly is 148.

I-PAC and Prashant Kishor have made battle plans to remedy the situation before the elections scheduled of April-May 2021. But can it stem the rot?

Is this unhappiness in constituencies over the handling of Covid-19 and the cyclone? Or, has it come about gradually,  only catalysed by recent events? Is it weariness over the corruption, anarchy, high-handedness, lawlessness? The TMC cannot tolerate  criticism from anyone in the Party, or indeed within the state. The Centre is demonised, defied, and projected as the predatory “outsider”. A sense of localised victimhood  is encouraged.

Once more, the prospect of the fall, if it comes, will be engineered as much from within the TMC, as without, by the opposition BJP.

There are other spectacles of splittism. One playing out, is at the heart of the Congress Party.

Splittism is almost always brought on by a slippage in the power equation. That it should happen in an absence of political power is almost inevitable. But while a government is still in the saddle, splittism owes its onset to growing deficits and contradictions that cannot be quelled by sheer repression. An inner coterie can no longer control the tides of dissent. Sometimes it is a consequence of biting off more than one can chew. But this is seen only by others. It all takes some time to play out.  But splittism invariably portends the beginning of the end.  

(1,398 words)

September 10^th, 2020

For: The Sunday Guardian

Gautam Mukherjee