Defence Partner & LEMOA: The Road To The Great Equalizer

Defence Partner & LEMOA: The Road To The Great Equalizer

The Chinese thought India’s signing of the LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement), with the US was ‘troubles’. For whom, they did not say, but it is unlikely they meant themselves.

This agreement allows mutual access to military facilities for refuelling. LEMOA also allows for provisioning and replenishment of supplies, all on a reimbursable basis.

LEMOA does not automatically allow for military bases to be set up, and/or the stationing of troops, but these too can be authorised on a case-to-case basis.  

It is the second agreement, out of four, for America’s defence partners. Two more are now under discussion. They are the CISMOA (Communications Interoperability & Security Memorandum of Agreement), and the BECA (Basic Exchange & Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation).  

LEMOA comes after India was designated as a ‘Major Defence Partner’ during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US in June 2016.

 The first in the series, the GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement), was signed by the Vajpayee/Dubya Bush governments, way back in 2002.The UPA, significantly, did not move forward at all on this strategic embrace during its decade in power.

For, India, LEMOA, its own $150 billion defence shopping list over the next 10 years, inclusive of Make in India, and its Modi Doctrine of ‘enlightened self-interest’, puts it in a unique position.

As for India’s tried and tested ties with Russia, there will be no downgrading it, and many military initiatives, in parallel, including some involving very high technology platforms, are on the anvil. But yes, an edge of competition has entered the equation, and should work very well in India’s favour.

We will, in addition, cooperate with other military manufacturing powers such as Britain, France, Israel, Sweden, Italy. We will also expand economic cooperation with many in the G-20, BRICS, other formations like ASEAN/APEC - including China.

This latest ‘troubles’ remark came, after the Chinese blocked our NSG bid. Other Chinese commentators from a security establishment think-tank growled, when India positioned its supersonic Brahmos missiles, on its North Eastern border areas. Some also grumbled when India positioned over 100 tanks in Ladakh. And again, when India raised the occupation/genocide/oppression, by the Pakistani state in POK/Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan.  

With India being a nuclear weapons state, the threat, if it comes to it, is of a multi-front conventional war, with Pakistan and China attacking in tandem.

At this juncture of geo-political imperatives, a military alliance with America therefore acts as a great equaliser vis-a-vis China, and gives India time to build up its independent military capabilities.

Besides, America is not willing, to give China a free passage to regional domination. This, any more than its NATO or ANZAC allies, or various other countries in South/South –South East Asia, including Japan, who are feeling the Chinese/North Korean overbite.

China will have to realise that it is deeply isolated, with only a couple of unstable rogue states in the form of Pakistan and North Korea for company.

China’s old ‘string of pearls’ strategy of encirclement of India via economic and infrastructural participation in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, the Maldives, Bhutan etc. now lies in ruins.

 Xi Jinping’s Albert Speerish ‘belt and road’ initiative, figuratively girding the world as a  super Silk Route, also makes everyone approached uncomfortable, including communities of people in Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan, where the proposed CPEC is part of it.

But apart from the hawkish posturing, China too is keen to advance economic cooperation with India, in manufacturing, infrastructure-particularly in the Indian Railways, and trade. It is necessary for China to resolve its aggressive tendencies though, because India is no longer willing to be intimidated, and has a number of other options.

China however is most impressed with its own sizeable military. It wants the world to fear its conventional and nuclear might.

It wants to dominate its half the world, ignoring the wishes of others in its littoral. It does not accept the International Court of Justice at the Hague’s verdict on the South China Sea, and still wants it exclusively for itself - ignoring Vietnam and the Philippines in the process.

It wants to dominate the Indian Ocean too, and has been patrolling it vigorously in recent years.

China’s notions on diplomacy also emboldens it to ignore the wishes of  the other members of the UNSC, thinking being factory to 40% of the world’s manufactured goods is enough leverage.

That the ancient, but newly prosperous Chinese, do not understand the implications of trying to game the much more powerful America, seems amply clear.

America has a military 17 times bigger than the next power, and China is not it! So, for India, a defence pact with America at this juncture is most comforting, enabling it to deal fairly with the rest of the world without security worries.

For: Nationalist Online

(798 words)

August 30^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

LEMOA And Beyond:: Slowly-Slowly-Catchee-Monkey

LEMOA And Beyond: Slowly-Slowly-Catchee-Monkey…

Chinese commentators, punch drunk on being the world’s second largest economy, promptly reacted negatively to India’s signing of the LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement), with the US.

This agreement allows mutual access to  military facilities for refuelling - flashback: remember Prime Minister Chandra Shekhar’s secretive one-off okay to  refuelling US planes, during the first Gulf War against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq?

LEMOA also allows for provisioning and replenishment of supplies, a kind of stevedoring exercise, all on a reimbursable basis.

LEMOA does not automatically allow for military bases to be set up, and/or the stationing of troops, but these too can be authorised on a case-to-case basis within the framework of this momentous agreement. So, it looks innocuous, but is not. China is right on its significance.

The other two ‘foundational’ agreements, out of four, typically signed between America and its defence partners, are now under discussion. They are the CISMOA (Communications Interoperability & Security Memorandum of Agreement), and the BECA (Basic Exchange & Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial Cooperation). No time lines for their signing however have been posted as yet.

However, not only did the Pentagon reiterate its support for India’s entry into the NSG ( Nuclear Suppliers Group), after the recent Chinese block, it mentioned India’s recent inclusion in the MTCR( Missile Technology Control Regime), which does not count China as a member  so far, as well.

That LEMOA coincided with the visit of US Secretary of State Kerry to New Delhi, even as  Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar is in Washington interacting with US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter.

It comes after India was designated as a ‘Major Defence Partner’ during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US in June 2016.

 And all of 12 years after the first in the series of four enabling agreements, the GSOMIA (General Security of Military Information Agreement), was signed by the Vajpayee/Dubya Bush governments, in 2002.

 The UPA did not move forward at all on this strategic embrace during its decade in power. This probably because it was caught up in the web of its own policy history on Nehruvian non-alignment, Indira Gandhi’s time as a satellite of the USSR, and pathological fear of Chinese umbrage, carried over into the Manmohan Singh regime.

For, India, LEMOA, its own $150 billion defence shopping list, inclusive of Make in India, over the next decade, and its Modi Doctrine of ‘enlightened self-interest’, puts it in a unique position. It’s the biggest defence purchase wish-list in the world.

Meanwhile, at this juncture of geo-political imperatives, a military alliance with America acts as a great equaliser vis-a-vis China, and gives India time to build up its independent military readiness.

Besides, America is not willing, any more than its NATO or ANZAC allies, plus the emerging realignments in South/South –South East Asia, to give China any kind of walkover in the world dominance stakes.

Instead China will have to eat a little crow, and re-evaluate its own options. It must realise that it is deeply isolated, with only a couple of unstable rogue states in the form of Pakistan and North Korea for company.

China’s old ‘string of pearls’ strategy of encirclement of India via inducements to Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, the Maldives, Bhutan etc. now lies in tatters. And Xi Jinping’s grandoise ‘belt and road’ initiative, figuratively taking off from the Old Silk Route, is viewed with suspicion in every part of its immediate neighbourhood.

As for India’s tried and tested ties with Russia, there will be no let up and many military initiatives, in parallel, are indeed, on the anvil. But yes, an edge of competition has  already crept in, and should work altogether in India’s favour.

This has already been borne out in the nuclear power context, not only with Russia, but also with France and the US all supplying reactors and know-how.

We will, it is clear, cooperate with every other major military power such as Britain and France on a bilateral basis, too; and this includes Israel, Sweden, Italy; and press on with economic cooperation with many in the G-20 and BRICS and other formations like ASEAN/APEC, including China.

China too is keen to advance economic cooperation with India, in manufacturing, infrastructure-particularly in the Indian Railways, and trade. It is for it to resolve its aggressive tendencies however, because India is no longer willing to be intimidated, and has a number of other options.

For the moment, in keeping with its customary hubris, China said the signing of LEMOA meant ‘troubles’. This implies, despite the enigmatic-speak, not so much grief for itself, because it is loathe to admit that its posturing has been challenged.

No, it is troubles for India that is being threatened. India is militarily ill-equipped and much poorer, it is true. But, unlike 1962, it is inconveniently nuclear weaponised.

The threat of late therefore, is of a multi-front conventional war, with Pakistan and China attacking in tandem. India does not have the wherewithal to fight this to win on its own currently, but with a little help from America, it can, and will.

Besides, this ‘troubles’ remark came, after the Chinese smirk on blocking our NSG bid. Just as other Chinese commentators in a security establishment think-tank growled, when India positioned its supersonic Brahmos missiles, on its North Eastern border areas.

Some also grumbled when India positioned over 100 tanks in Ladakh, not so long ago.

And again, when India raised the occupation/genocide/oppression, by the Pakistani state in POK/Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan.

There goes the CPEC, Beijing must be thinking, already being criticised by the jailed Baba Jan’s followers in Gilgit-Baltistan and PoK; and all those tonnes of precious minerals. And so, China allowed that it might ‘intervene’ in Balochistan too.

China is most impressed with its own sizeable, largely copied from old US stock, military. It wants the world to fear its conventional and nuclear might.

But then, China makes no secret of wanting to control half the world. Never mind what Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, even Hong Kong and Tibet, others, in  South /South-East Asia, and the Asia-Pacific, think.

And never mind what the International Court of Justice at the Hague has to say too. China wants the South China Sea for itself, and does not recognise the Hague ruling against it. It has been bumptiously issuing warnings to all and sundry within and without its range.

It wants to dominate the Indian Ocean too, and has been patrolling it mightily in recent years.

China’s mandarin notions on diplomacy also emboldens it to ignore the wishes of other members of the UNSC, such as Russia, Britain, and France, thinking being factory to 40% of the world’s manufactured goods is enough leverage.

It has been trying, preposterously, from before President Xi Jinping’s time, to buy-off America, purchasing its treasury bonds in trillions, while, sotto voce, threatening monetary destabilisation!

It particularly wanted to take advantage of America’s economic troubles post 2008, by upgrading its claims, if not the balance of payments, while attempting to cede a sphere of influence to it. Take the other half of the world, China seemed to say: meaning the Atlantic, the Mediterranean, the North Sea etc..

That the ancient, but newly prosperous Chinese, do not understand the implications of trying to parley, on the basis of riches acquired thanks to the Nixon-Kissinger tilt against the USSR, with the world’s most technologically advanced military power; seems amply clear.

America, the fact the Chinese try to ignore, is sized at 17 times greater than the next military establishment in line! So, for India, it’s a good eiderdown to get under, while continuing to deal fairly with the rest of the world.

For: The Sunday Guardian

(1,277 words)

August 30^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

Time To Expel Socialism From Electricity Economics?

Time To Expel Socialism From Electricity Economics?

The selling price of solar electricity in the US is 3 cents/Kwh in 2016. Solar electricity pricing, it is clear, will dominate, like OPEC once did, going forward.

This is far cheaper than Indian coal-based power generation. Thermal generation accounts for 54.5% of the total (2013). Installed capacity is 267, 637 MW, generating 1106 billion Kwh.

Additionally, there are captive power stations, 47,082 MW worth, generating 166,426 Kwh (2014-15) and 75,000 MW of diesel generating sets.

Fortunately, India under Modi has understood where the world is headed, and is adding solar capacity furiously- hopefully, 100,000 MW by 2020.

Similarly, hydro, accounting for just 5% generation in 2013, is due to be boosted considerably, as is wind energy, contributing 8.5% already.

So, in the medium term, along with nuclear energy, 5 reactors under construction, another 18  targeted for 2025, electricity will be plentiful, greener, and much cheaper.

India now has an Electricity Act 2003, and a National Electricity Policy 2005, both of which piously seek to emphasise rural electrification, particularly of poor Dalit households.

However, even at present levels of generation, there is, ironically, a complaint of inadequate demand, mainly because the backbone doesn’t reach everywhere necessary - and because electricity is a perishable commodity that can’t be stored!

We currently buy in Bhutan’s surplus electricity, probably as a balance of payments mechanism, and sell our surplus to Bangladesh and Myanmar, in return for their natural gas, for which a new pipeline and road/rail links are in the works.

This, even as we seek to grow and modernise our generation, transmission grids, our distribution - to cater to present/future demand and connectivity.

But, like everything else, when it comes to consumption, it is the upper end of the pyramid that tends to do most of it. The problem is, we have not taken a benign policy stance to this favourable reality.

Better off people, including productive business  and industry, can afford to consume more of everything, electricity included, and should be rewarded for it. And yet, even though this is what makes all enterprise both viable and profitable, there is little or no policy acknowledgement as yet.

In America, where lavish amounts of domestic electricity for heating/airconditioning, myriad appliances/gadgets, is largely provided by neighbouring private utility companies; large consumers are rewarded with discounted tariffs. Here, in India, they are penalised, with rapacious rates, and lectured on conservation.

The government policy makers still persist on aiming electricity at the one third that is poverty stricken. But, laudable as this is, it is financially unworkable, if the big consumers are not encouraged to consume even more to compensate.

Very poor people cannot buy much electricity, even at rock-bottom tariffs, calculated presently on fossil-fuel generated electricity.  

Nevertheless, additional domestic rates are being proposed now, higher than even the preposterous Rs. 8 per Kwh for the big users.

For running two or more airconditioners, the Delhi public is being told to expect another Rs. 10,000/- or more, to their monthly electricity bill. Other states too, follow similar policies. Commercial/industrial rates, are anyway, even higher!

That this is a clear invitation to meter-fiddling corruption, rampant already, is another, if related, matter.   

India is third in energy consumption today, after China and the US, but it still accounts for just 5.3% of the global share (2015).

And this, on poor per capita consumption of just 1,010 Kwh, which means the poor don’t even consume this meagre amount, but are counted in the averaging for merely being numerous.  

We are expected to become the second largest by 2035, accounting for 18% of world electricity consumption. But what use is this, if it is just a sum based on even more people?

Albeit our askew dependence on fossil fuel to generate electricity- 29.45% from crude oil, 7.7% from natural gas, and 54.5% from coal, (we have the world’s 4^th largest deposits of coal) is a big part of the problem today.

The Modi government expects to have universal electricity connectivity within its current term of office; 2018 is often mentioned. 

The Government of India also expects to be electricity surplus by 2017!  

What joy then if graded electricity tariffs start at a meagre 200 units a month, barely enough to run a couple of LED bulbs?

If a consumer uses more than 200 units, the tariff is stepped up, and at  a couple of thousand units a month, running airconditioners, microwaves, heaters, and the like, tariffs are whizzing the meter, at multiples of the base rate!

For: ABP Live

(747 words)

August 26^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

Balochistan-PoK-Gilgit-Baltistan: The Enemy Of Your Enemy Is Your Friend

Balochistan-PoK-Gilgit-Baltistan: The Enemy Of Your Enemy Is Your Friend

A wise man gets more use from his enemies than a fool from his friends- Baltasar Gracian

While the historical record shows that the dominant and unfettered influence on map-making, and the consequent fates of the populace in 1947-48, was still with the departing British, it is a wonder that no acceptance of resulting ground realities has sunk in, even after 70 years.

The cunning imperial power followed its vicious, if covert, policies of divide and rule to the last, seeking, at a minimum, to leave a blood-feuding mess, that might blow up in the faces of all those who had had the temerity to demand their independence.

This, is, in fact, the legacy story, not only of grievously vitiated India-Pakistan relations, but also those of the various provinces of Pakistan, holding together only through ruthless repression, including the bombing and routine abduction of its own people.  

It is of some pyrrhic comfort therefore, post Brexit, to witness what Britain did to so many others around the globe, playing out on its home turf, as Scotland and Northern Ireland contemplate leaving the British union too.

With regard to the abjectly failed current state of Pakistan, ironically riven by Islamic religious discord, it is perhaps a pity that the NWFP isn’t on the list of regions across the border that India is ready to befriend now, after its recent policy shift on Pakistan.

After all, the echoes of ‘Frontier Gandhi’, Khan Abdul Gaffar Khan’s memory have not died out entirely, either in India or in the NWFP.

The NWFP Pakhtoon is a target of Punjabi Pakistan’s bullying too, as is the Afghan, across the border.

Afghanistan is closely allied to India today, after a prolonged period of darkness, even at noon, and quite fed up of the regular Pakistani Taliban attacks on its soil.

The Punjabi Sunni majority that runs Pakistan, and its terrorist cohorts, have been ruthlessly targeting Kabul and Peshawar alike, mainly to kill and scatter its remaining Shias.

They think nothing of killing/blowing up congregations as they come out of their mosques after Friday prayers. And they didn’t hesitate to kill scores of school children at their school desks in Peshawar either. And now they’ve done it to an assembly of lawyers in  Quetta, Balochistan, composed of Sunni and Shia alike.

The scenario is similar in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan’s only Shia majority area, where state oppression is routine, but goes largely unreported. But recently it hit the news when 500 locals were arrested for once again protesting the arrest of local leader Baba Jan in 2011, his conviction as a terrorist, and sentencing to 40 years in jail. The 500 were also protesting development of the vaunted China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), through Gilgit-Baltistan, which the locals say will only benefit the Chinese  and Punjabi Pakistanis, and not them.

In natural resource rich, but underdeveloped and poor Balochistan, now attracting the attention of China with the proposed CPEC; the Pakistani government intimidates the locals by abducting not only the men, but their wives and daughters- as many as 25,000 at a time, per a recent cry for help.

The bullying tactics and routine atrocities/human-rights violations of the Pakistani Punjabis is  oppressive to all of its three remaining other provinces - after the loss of East Pakistan in 1971.

This includes Sindh, from where, the once powerful Bhuttos, hail from the village of Larkana.

But, oblivious of the vulnerabilities in their own increasingly chaotic backyard, official and ‘non-state’ Pakistan, working in cahoots, continues on its reckless export of terrorists to India, Afghanistan and further afield. Almost every terrorist attack and atrocity on European or American soil has a Pakistani imprint on it too.

With regard to India, the strategy of ‘a thousand cuts’ has not worked substantially, even after decades since President Zia Ul Haq first put it in place. But, lost for an alternative, and unwilling to sue for peace, the ISI, the Pak Army, its government, other elements, including the Mumbai underworld in exile, that make up the Pakistani establishment, plough on regardless.

They probably still hope against hope, to some-day, radicalise most of India’s 200 million odd Muslims, to rise up in a civil war blood-bath against the Hindu majority.

Pakistan is clearly determined to be obdurate, perfidious, and single-minded in its lust to capture the Kashmir Valley, and has even said so plainly, dedicating its own 70^th Independence Day to the liberation of the Valley!

But, how does it propose to do so, when its backdrop and support-base has changed so radically?

America does not need it anymore as a strategic ally. The oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, are much too diminished in their circumstances to help like before, or promote radical Wahabbism to the same extent.

They need, in fact, to find a post-oil economy livelihood, by collaborating with growth engines like India. These Gulf countries no longer want to use Pakistani terrorism as leverage around the globe either, and are busy distancing themselves from it.

Today, Pakistan is reduced to banking solely on Chinese support.  It could, of course, start another Kargil-like war with India, resorting, this time, to its much publicised ‘tactical nuclear weapons’.

However, India, prior-warned, seems to have taken this possibility on board. It looks as if it has made up its mind to call Pakistan out on its regular nuclear war threats, with a few counter measures of its own.

And while Pakistan is banking on Chinese involvement if it goes to war with India, recent events and postures may have changed its position, isolating it within the world community. China may therefore be very reluctant to weigh in on the side of its embarrassing ‘all-weather friend’.

Given the present geopolitical realities, the rest of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), Britain, France, the US and Russia; will not support aggression against India!

Any solo Pakistani adventurism vis-a-vis India, will also tend to put paid to Chinese plans to build the CPEC, estimated to cost $46 billion, from its Muslim majority Xinkiang province, all the way to Gwadur in Balochistan.

This, is in fact an extension of the existing Karakoram Highway  through  Gilgit-Baltistan built by China in the 1960s. It already connects Islamabad to Gilgit, and on to Kashgar in Xinkiang via the most high Khunjareb Pass.

But, if freedom movements now intensify in two of the provinces on the CPEC route, China is likely to stay as far away as possible!

India has now made public its intent to encourage Balochi nationalism. It may be also in position to help it, from its bases in Central Asia, and Chabahar, in coastal Iran, where it is developing facilities, just 48 km away from Gwadur.

It is also good to remember also that the ethnic Balochi people reside in contiguous areas of Iran (Sistan), and southern Afghanistan(Nimruz), as well. They too could well help in the liberation of their Pakistani brothers, if their central governments decide to also back the move.

Revolts in Balochistan have already occurred in 1948, 1958, 1962 and 1973-77, again in 2003 and once again, along sectarian Shia/Sunni lines as of 2012. The embers of the Balochi bid for independence have never died out, ever since  the British let it be occupied by Pakistan in 1948.

Matters were not helped by the murder of prominent Balochi leader Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti in 2006, in a crackdown ordered by President Parvez Musharraf.  His surviving grandson, Brahumdagh Bugti, current head of the Baloch Republican Party, in exile at Geneva, Switzerland, was duly surprised, but quick to hail Modi’s support.

For: The Sunday Guardiam

(1,263 words)

August 16^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

A New Foreign Policy For India: The Modi Doctrine

A New Foreign Policy For India: The Modi Doctrine

A book of foreign policy essays, by a clutch 0f eminent diplomats and analysts, was released on the evening of the 13^th of August, by Union External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.

In front of a packed hall at New Delhi’s India International Centre (IIC), speaker after speaker boldly announced the arrival of a new approach to India’s foreign policy, calling it: The Modi Doctrine.

This book is amongst the first serious attempts to review the direction India is now taking to pursue its ‘enlightened self-interest’, after a prolonged spell spent under a Nehruvian world-view, and suffering its resultant hangover.

This, under successive Congress/UPA regimes, replete with its peculiar prejudices and conceits. These did not often serve the country and its interests very well, as is increasingly being pointed out in hindsight, but, as long as the same party remained in power, all mistakes and missed  opportunities were skilfully brushed under the carpet.

The results, of a more urgent engagement with the world than ever seen before in Indian diplomacy, led by the prime minister in person, are beginning to show already, within the 25 months this government has been in power.

So much so, that it may call for a corresponding make-over in the ways and means of the foreign-service bureaucracy, in order to cope with Modi’s blistering pace.

The momentum of the Modi government in the foreign affairs space has been unmistakeable, right from the swearing-in ceremony in May 2014, with almost all SAARC heads of government in attendance.  

Both the Prime Minister and the External Affairs Minister have visited nearly 150 countries since, meeting heads of state/government, business, industry, the Indian diaspora, and high officialdom in each place, rekindling many dormant relationships.

They have also taken much greater notice of the ordinary Indian abroad, in need of help, succour or rescue, recognising their yeoman contribution towards India’s foreign exchange reserves and balance of payments.

Together with the MEA’s professional diplomats, they have built a broad consensus against Islamic terrorism, helped in part by the constant depredations of the terrorists, in many countries around the globe.

They have also listened, learned and discussed, while putting India’s aspirations forward in the comity of nations, urging many to Make in India, and participate in the modernisation of its infrastructure.

This has resulted in quite a few concrete commercial and manufacturing/infrastructure building advances, and diplomatic breakthroughs. India’s membership in the influential Missile Technology Control regime (MTCR) is  a case in point. 

And there is a much admired emerging military and strategic alliance with the United States/Israel.

This, without sacrificing the long-standing and strong ties with Russia.  

Logjams in terms of nuclear fuel from Canada and Australia have been cleared, and Canadian uranium has begun to flow to Indian reactors. Australia too is expected to commence supplies soon.

While China has blocked India’s inclusion into the NSG,  its own troubles on its claims in the South-China Sea, turned down by the Hague, and the liabilities of supporting two delinquent, pariah, mostly insolvent allies,  Pakistan and North Korea, may prove too onerous going forward.  

Meanwhile, the other four members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), are far more energised about India’s inclusion as a permanent member, facing up to geopolitical realities and threats today, posed mostly by China’s global ambitions.

Closer home, India has forged close links with Afghanistan and Iran, with a presence at Chabahar, Iran, a heartbeat away from Gwadar in Balochistan.

It has also balanced its relationship with China, despite border tensions. And also with Pakistan’s erstwhile supporters : Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, helped appreciably by a more or less permanent crash in petroleum prices.

Other substantial initiatives have fructified with Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore.

We now have warmer ties with Australia, France, Germany, and with Brexit reduced Britain. 

There are also growing possibilities with African countries such as Madagascar, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, and others in the BRICS and G-20 formations.

Some parts of SAARC and the immediate neighbourhood, have responded to our overtures, with Bangladesh, Bhutan and Myanmar, showing bold new promise by way of greater trade engagement, strategic cooperation, road, rail, maritime and gas-pipeline links.

On the converse side, after being plagued by cross-border terrorism from Pakistan for decades, the Modi government has decided, at last, to challenge the very foundations of the existing non-functional matrix.

From being primly on the defensive, India has now decided to take the battle into the enemy camp. Its mint-fresh approach is to question Pakistan’s illegal occupation in 1947-48 of POK/Gilgit-Baltistan, and Balochistan.

These places, forcibly occupied then, are still restive. In addition Pakistan’s NWFP, bordering Afghanistan, and even Sind, the bastion of the once powerful Bhuttos, are not happy under blatant Punjabi domination.

Pakistan has resorted to increasingly bloody repression, Sunni terrorist attacks, and human rights abuses, in all three out of its four remaining provinces, in a foolish bid to wipe out its 20% Shia minority.

And it also routinely resorts to rigged elections, the subject of the latest uproar in PoK.

In the hope of breaking India’s resolve, Pakistan has been sharply ratcheting up its provocations in the Kashmir Valley, hoping to radicalise the native population.

India, fed up with Pakistan’s nefarious designs, has decided to go on the offensive, after years of trying to play it with a straight bat.

Part of the softer UPA approach to the extremists in the Valley, was also influenced by its need to pander to its Muslim vote banks elsewhere, most notably in infiltrator infested Assam.

But Assam, including its Muslim minority, has recently thrown out the Congress, and the majority moderate element in the Kashmir Valley also wants no truck with Pakistan.

India’s new strategy, long advocated by National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval, is to begin a process of championing the liberation movements in PoK/Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan.

This, to the absolute joy of the resistance movements there, as well as their articulate exiles abroad.

China, probably taken by surprise so far, may however not be over keen to wade into the upcoming mess. It will probably also rethink its major investments in Pakistan under the circumstances.

Pakistan, identified as the terrorist factory to the world, is not very popular anywhere now, and has lost its strategic value to America. That leaves China, which has its own isolation and internal pressures to consider, with a significantly slower economy.

Will Pakistan, which declared the liberation of the Kashmir Valley as its 70^th independence day objective, drop its belligerence? Perhaps not, even  though it is likely to break-up without proactive Chinese support, its nuclear weapons status notwithstanding.

For: The Pioneer

(1,097 words)

August 15^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

Modi From The Ramparts: Pragati With Gati: Swarajya to Surajya:POK/Gilgit-Baltistan To Balochistan!

Modi From The Ramparts: Pragati With Gati: Swarajya to Surajya: POK/Gilgit-Baltistan to Balochistan

 In a wide-ranging exposition from the ramparts of Red Fort, New Delhi, Prime Minister Modi gave out a nuanced message, highlighting the accomplishments and concerns of his government.

Modi’s penchant for slogans intact, he described the endeavours of governance going forward to: ‘reform, perform and transform’.

Despite a heightened security threat, borne out by LoC violations overnight, and attacks on a CRPF position in downtown Srinagar, there was no bullet-proof enclosure, now for the 3^rd time.

The terrorist attacks generally, in fact, underline a significant juxtaposition: blasts near the US embassy in Kabul, gunfire and a shut-down at JFK Airport!

But, to keep things pointedly humdrum, there was little visible security, as Modi, in a celebratory saffron-streaked safaa, spoke  sonorously and at length, from under the proudly fluttering Indian flag.

Recurring themes throughout at this &0^th Independence Day address, were the much improved speed of implementation, the cutting out of corruption, continuity of governance, unity of the country, and a reliance on online-based delivery; all Modi hallmarks – more-so as prime minister.

Infrastructure featured prominently, with a view to provide ‘integrated development’: village roads, electricity generation/transmission, solar power, railway modernisation, reworking post offices into payment banks, reaching those people that were neglected for decades, those in the last mile.

The revival of 270 projects, launched by previous governments, underlined his government’s commitment to continuity and refusal to let tax-payer money go to waste.

Legislative gains were enumerated: GST of course, but also the mint new Maternity Bill, and earlier-the Real Estate Bill.

There has been the renegotiation of the long-term gas supply agreement with Qatar in our favour. Modi cited the bold move to develop Chabahar Port and related infrastructure in Iran, and the long-pending border agreement with Bangladesh.

FDI too has been much enhanced. Relations with other countries, near and far, have been strengthened.

Several PSU’s have been returned to operational profits: BSNL, Shipping Corporation of India, Air India.

Coal availability for power generation has been restored to necessary standards, and the work is on for ‘one nation, one grid, one price’, and hopefully, cheaper and plentiful electricity, as an outcome.

Modi addressed the efforts being made to provide opportunities and employment to over 800 million youth under the age of 35, who make up the country’s democratic dividend, employment in new factories, better skilling, widespread micro-credit for enterprise.

He outlined the progress and results from many government programmes, particularly those aimed at alleviating the conditions of the poor.

Speed and its efficacy was also described in different fields, agriculture- including steps taken to address greater dal cultivation, including the arranging of supplies to alleviate temporary shortages.

The provision of high performance seeds, and their scientific development, running into 130 new ones; soil-mapping for appropriate cultivation strategies, fertilizer availability, the banishing of urea shortages, micro-irrigation for ‘more crop per drop’, solar pumps etc.

Administrative gains were proudly outlined: Modi spoke of the hassle-free speed gained in the issue of 1.25 crore passports. Of the vast improvements in income tax refund administration.  Of online registrations at over 400 leading government hospitals.

The beti bachao, beti padhao  programme was mentioned for its significance towards the enhancement of female education and its potential to transform entire families.

Modi pointed out his government’s aggressive provision of cooking gas to outlying areas, and the building of toilets in 70,000 villages.

The AADHAR card reach has gone from 4 crore people to over 70 crore and counting, forming a bridge for delivery of services and subsidies.

Likewise, there have been vast improvements in pension and EPF administration, the implementation of OROP, and so on.

Modi pointed out that interviews for Class C and Class D personnel recruitment has been abolished, saving on time, money, and corruption.

The lesser known contribution of Adivasis to the freedom movement was mentioned, probably for the first time ever.

Modi remembered the great sacrifices and bravery of the nation’s security forces, and made it clear that terrorism would never be tolerated. However, misguided youth were welcome to return to the mainstream.

But the biggest departure from the script, was a reiteration of the changed policy towards Pakistan, outlined recently at the All Parties Meeting to discuss Kashmir.

Modi sternly disapproved of terrorists being eulogised by ‘certain countries’. This even when human rights abuses were both routine and rife in illegally occupied POK, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Balochistan.

And, he said, the leadership and people of these regions, have in turn, enthusiastically welcomed Indian support to their quest for liberation from Pakistan’s long-standing oppression.

For: ABP Live

(750 words)

August 15^th 2016

Gautam Mukherjee