The World Order Is Changing

India is waiting to welcome US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper in person to New Delhi.

They are coming for the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. The importance of a face-to-face meeting in this season of virtual meetings and summits cannot be lost sight of. The US wants to bolster India’s resistance and others in this SAARC region, to an imperialist Red China.

President-for-life Xi Jinping’s leadership of China eerily resembles the attitudes that animated belligerent regimes from centuries past. That this kind of behaviour has always consolidated the opposition, leading to its downfall and destruction is lost on the Chinese leadership.

Like the tragic happenings occasioned by the two world wars, and the almost constant territorial warfare in the age of monarchs before them, the aggressive power is intoxicated by the notion that it can prevail. That it can stamp its domination upon the world. That it will fail in the attempt is preordained, but some leaders refuse to learn from history.

The 2+2 is the third such annual meeting, but this one is in the context of over 60,000 PLA troops with masses of military equipment on the LaC at Eastern Ladakh, and other points of the long Tibetan border area.

China has used the PLA to be consistently aggressive, and its state- controlled media to be absurdly propagandist against India. It has wilfully blocked progress on several rounds of military and diplomatic dialogue. It has made provocative statements saying China does not recognise Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory.

America, on its part, has asserted that the regions are very much part of India. America has also criticised the Chinese belligerence at Eastern Ladakh. The narrative however may be about to shift gears. A stiffening of stance, with overt India-US military cooperation is on the cards now.

The US presidential elections may be just days away, but the Trump administration is not behaving like the traditional lame duck. It is busy transforming West Asia, as Oman and Saudi Arabia move to recognise Israel with full diplomatic relations and normalised ties.

This is in addition to the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan, who are already on board. Apart from Ayatollah-run Shiite Iran, opposed to the US at present, the entire Gulf region is expected to follow suit.

Egypt has long normalised relations with Israel from the days of Anwar Sadat and Menachem Begin. But there are others in the Middle East- Iraq, Tunisia, Morocco, a cooperative Jordan, and conceivably, in due course, even Syria, that could become allies of Israel instead of uncomfortable and occasionally hostile neighbours.

The Palestinian Authority has been losing diplomatic traction for years, and may have to settle its future on Israeli terms. America signalled its intent by agreeing to the movement of the Israeli capital from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, moving its embassy subsequently, more or less at the beginning of Donald Trump’s first term in 2016. Trump spent a night in Jerusalem rather than Tel Aviv to illustrate this.

So Turkey, under a revanchist Erdogan, with its allies Malaysia and Pakistan, may not have history on its side. It is futile for Erdogan to claim Jerusalem for the Palestinian Authority.

Most of Sunni Arabia, long put upon to finance the bottomless pit of Palestinian penury, is not willing to finance its obduracy any more. There is no economic viability for the Palestinian Authority without coming to sensible terms with Israel. The most likely outcome is a merger with safeguards and assurances, though it may take considerable and detailed talks.

But if this is what happens, the politics of West Asia will have changed dramatically. A new, less bloody and jihadist age could well dawn. This, even as the income from oil and gas, that has dominated the balance sheets for half a century, cannot pay for more than a third of expenses going forward.

West Asia will necessarily turn to opportunities in India as a large, growing economy, in need of much development investment,  sitting on its doorstep.

In our region, South Asia, the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific, maritime matters are now of paramount importance. Chinese attempts to dominate the oceans, with its increasingly large blue water navy are alarming. This is in addition to its ill-advised attempt to grab the South and East China Seas.

China also dreams of dominating the Gulf region via its base at Gwadar and its alliances with both Pakistan and Iran. It has set up naval bases in all except name at Sri Lanka, the Maldives, on the Red Sea at Djibouti. It is looking for toe-holds in Myanmar, The Seychelles, and ever as far away as Venezuela.

But all this will come to nought with or without armed conflicts with China. The rest of the world is reordering itself to resist. Our own dialogue with the US, France, Britain and other NATO and US allies is moving steadily towards military partnerships. The four member QUAD on the seas already conjoins India, Japan, the US and Australia. The Andaman Islands, at the mouth of the Malacca Straits, through which 80% of Chinese shipping passes now, could well be the QUAD’s base.

In Pakistan, a new push-back against the Pakistan Army and the ISI has begun in no uncertain terms. This is spearheaded by a eleven party coalition, The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), is led by PDM President Maulana Fazlur Rehman from Balochistan, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif and his political heir, daughter Maryam Nawaz with their base in Lahore Punjab, Bilawal Bhutto the heir apparent of the Sindh based PPP, and others.  They are collectively determined to oust prime minister Imran Khan, seen to be an Army puppet.

The Army and ISI are in turn seen to have messed up the Pakistani economy and polity. There is resentment with the increasing Chinese presence and the massive corruption within the Army and the ISI, while the people starve.

With well-attended rallies coming thick and fast in various parts of Pakistan, the Army and ISI can, of course, crack down and impose martial law. This has been the option exercised several times before, most recently by former dictator Parvez Musharraf.

Since armed clashes have already occurred between the Karachi Police and the Army, resulting in casualties on both sides, things may be getting out of hand. There are long festering insurgencies also in Gilgit Baltistan, Balochistan, Pakhtoonistan, and now, new ones brewing even in Sindh and Punjab.

Otherwise, The Pakistan Army and the ISI, seen as much too involved in every aspect of governance, will be forced to share power with this new formation. But this will mean loss of face and control for the generals.

China cannot be happy about this development, given the scale of its financial investment into the CPEC, and its cosy relationship with the biddable Pakistan Army generals. But can the Army hold the country together if it cracks down?

General Javed Bajwa, who gave himself a three-year extension using Imran Khan’s rubber stamp, has his detractors within the Pakistan Army. There could well be a counter coup.

For India, with the dragon breathing hard in Ladakh, this instability in Pakistan may disrupt Chinese plans of a two-pronged attack on India. On the other hand, if the Pakistan Army does attack India, either directly to distract the country from its internal issues, or indirectly, via any major terrorist attack, India may be justified in conquering PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan.

This won’t be possible, of course, without taking on China at Ladakh at the same time. And this is where a newly re-elected Donald Trump will be of crucial importance to keep China under severe pressure.

Certainly, the world order is changing dramatically, and propelling India into a higher trajectory as a consequence. We have much to look forward to at the end of our trials and tribulations of the present.

(1,312 words)

For: SirfNews

October 25^th 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

West Bengal Is Not An Island Unto Itself

The problem of economic decline in West Bengal has both policy and philosophical reasons. At the most basic level, it calls for a shifting of gears to get away from an entrenched mindset. One that has taken it into a downward spiral for decades now. This despite harbouring some of the most talented, artistic, educated and intelligent Indians who have distinguished themselves in state, elsewhere, and around the world.

Its financial problems, psychological isolation, increasing ghettoization, apathy, squalor, and deep feelings of victimhood, make for quite a witch’s brew.

And the indoctrination of communism on top of a prevalent socialism, in place for three decades of earlier Left Front rule, has successfully politicised everyone. Bengalis who live in West Bengal are consequently very aware of their rights, but are insouciant and cavalier about their duties. Who wants to be a productive citizen anyway?

Discipline destroyed by Maoist rhetoric, all industry that could flee has long fled as a consequence. So has much of the trade and the jobs that once had everybody flocking to Calcutta.

Fifty years under Communist and populist TMC rule, to over 70 years, under earlier Congress governments, have a common refrain. West Bengal feels left out. It feels cheated. It has always been at war with the central government. And if the central government does not cater to absurd demands, it is, of course, biased against the people of the place.

This attitude has been true right from its very creation as a state. It was carved out from the erstwhile Bengal Presidency during the Raj. That was a much grander entity. It included today’s Bihar, Odisha, Assam and, of course Bangladesh. This also accounts for a good measure of Bengali middle-class arrogance with regard to its neighbours and indeed the fellows at the Centre.

In addition to Calcutta being the capital of British India, ranging over practically all of what is SAARC today, plus parts of the Arabian Gulf and Myanmar, then called Burma. There it was, most prominent during the two world wars and the economic boom that accompanied them. Nobody felt very bad about earlier setbacks then. Calcutta, with its big city lights, music, beautiful women and fine dining, was renowned for its glamour. It was called the Paris of the East.

The loss of gradual power and pre-eminence over the years has been felt keenly.  This perspective has plagued and influenced every state government of Tagore’s state from right after independence. Particularly when it found itself in trouble for not keeping its promises.

Not for West Bengal the determination of Israel, to build from scratch despite the horrendous persecution of Jews in Europe. Perhaps that sort of bootstrapping does not exist in the Indian ethos, let alone in this eastern state.

The various West Bengal governments have, in effect, refused to move on, preferring nostalgia and romanticism. They have fallen behind many others, and get away with development projects that are decades in the execution.

If current woes are thought insufficient, the state’s rulers have not shied away from referencing the first partition of Bengal in 1905, the transfer of the capital of British India to Delhi in 1911, the painful partition of 1947 at independence, and the massive Bangladeshi refugee influx of 1971.

These are all substantial blows to the Bengali psyche to be sure. But what is the use of crying over so much spilt milk? Especially when there is so much to do.

Governments of West Bengal have used these same old woundings to imply they have reasons for their shortcomings of governance and economic progress. That it wears thin as an alibi after more than 70 years of independence does not seem to bother the residents of the state either.

They seem content with cock and bull justifications and ideological rationale of sorts. The poor prefer being bought out with handouts and doles to any real progress. This is reflected in their voting patterns, their clinging to the misery they know. They are wary of venturing into new pastures. But if the BJP puts enough money into the effort of ousting the TMC, they might do well yet.

It won’t be easy. There are enforcers at large that deliver swift retribution to any that stray from the party in power’s directives. If you  have taken the TMC government’s salt, you must deliver your end of the bargain.

West Bengal politicians, almost all of them ethnic Bengalis, has always held themselves largely blameless for the state of affairs. Throughout the 20^th century, and now going into the third decade of the 21^st, they have felt short-changed by the higher powers. Making the murky most of it is second nature now. Idealism is all but dead.

Successive narratives say this is through no fault of West Bengal’s own. Those guerrilla attacks on the British were the work of nationalists. And later, Naxalite attacks upon its own were attempts to secure social justice.

The biggest problem is this alternate universe that the residents of this front-line state have created for themselves.

There is a serious infiltration and terrorist undercurrent sheltering amongst the nearly 30% Muslim population of the state. Bangladeshis. Rohingyas and Pakistani operatives are proliferating under the benign gaze and abetment of the state government. But it is busy consolidating a loyal minority vote-bank.

The state police are misused to serve the ruling government’s purpose. Central agencies are blocked and stone-walled. The finances of the state government are diverted to its purposes in an opaque manner. Government and TMC Party scams are never investigated.

In the end, will it take President’s Rule, using the anarchy, arson, mayhem and murder, also rampant, as reasons? It could, for a short time, but then there must be elections held.

Do the people of West Bengal trust the so-called ‘outsider’ BJP that rules in so many other states and the centre? It does not seem likely from all the exposed evidence. Though there are some reports surfacing on acute anti-incumbency. The TMC has hired Prashant Kishor, a sought after political consultant, to improve its chances.

But West Bengal does get fed up eventually. When it ousted the Left Front, after more than 30 years in favour of the TMC, there was little of the groundswell showing to political observers. But the rout, when it came, was almost absolute.

This time around, the BJP has made some ingress, in the general elections, winning 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats, if not so much in the state assembly, or the municipalities, the panchayats.

Can it sweep clean, based on a dissatisfaction amongst the Hindu majority that is yet to be particularly vocal about it? It seems unlikely, given the stranglehold of the TMC.

However, if it is political integration of the state with the national mainstream and economic progress that is desired, there is no alternative but to vote in the BJP.

It looked very unlikely in Assam before it happened.  But BJP did oust Congress from a stronghold of many years. Likewise in Tripura, where the Communists were defeated by them after decades in power. The RSS cadres have been working quietly in West Bengal, as they had been in Tripura and Assam.

But intellectualised West Bengal is an enigma. Its people prefer politics to progress and prosperity or have done so for a very long time. Much will be revealed in 2021 when the assembly elections are held.

Will it re-elect the ageing Mamata Banerjee and her virtually one person corrupt dictatorship, or will it take the plunge and usher in the Lotus.

Will it dare to give power to the much feared North Indian led non-Bengali? This force will have Bengali front-men of course. Still, it will combine readily with the naturalised if not native Marwaris, Sindhis, Punjabis et al? Can parochial West Bengal stomach this, weighed against its steady Islamisation? Time will tell.

(1,312 words)

For: Bengal Thinks

19^th October 2020

Gautam Mukherjee