Is Biden,
Mired In Two Wars, Going To Be A One-Term President
Incumbent
President Joe Biden,81, standing for re-election in 2024, knows, after more
than fifty years in the Senate, and as President Obama’s two term Vice
President, that incumbents generally win.
He has come
a long way from suggesting he was just a ‘bridge’ president, and a definite
one-termer in 2019. He might even had meant it at the time. Now, he wants to go
the distance into a second-term, rocking into his late eighties, experience,
and infirmities, in tow. But yes, he is in good health, just like his rival.
Biden gaffes do not necessarily make him senile, and can hold their own against
various Trumpisms.
Biden does
not, however, as staff writer Linda Feldman of The Christian Science Monitor
puts it, have ‘a core base of enthusiasm’ for his candidacy in the Democratic
Party. Fine, but there is a TINA factor at play, and Biden does not have 91
felonies against himself either. Felonies, and other legalistic land- mines,
any of which could disqualify Trump and open up a whole new race.
However, by
way of contrast, the other ancient, his pugnacious challenger Donald Trump, does
enjoy massive core support in the Republican Party. Donald Trump thinks,
controversially, that the election was stolen from him four years ago, and is
spoiling for a rematch. The swing states and polls support Trump. He could win
quite handily. The election, in November 2024 is still eleven months away of
course, and much could change.
Meanwhile,
inflation has hit, skyrocketing grocery and food prices. This may not be grand
economics, but it is lived experience for the people. People want to see the
prices that existed pre Covid. This, of course, is unlikely because of the
bruising the economy has taken over two lockdown years.
The domestic
economy, is, in fact, growing now, and has staved off a recession. Unemployment
is not a major issue. The Democrat position on free abortion rights makes sense
to most women across the two main parties. Most women want the right to decide
and do not agree with male Republican
religious fundamentalists who have organised a ban by overthrowing the Roe-Wade
judgement.
Other broader
issues such as national security when there are frequent shootings of innocents
in public places are being debated and additional measures contemplated. However,
the American fundamental right to bear arms is not going away anytime soon. Immigration is a double-edged sword. Cheap
illegal labour on the one hand, and demographic pressures on the other. We have
a similar problem with four million or more Bangladeshi infiltrators here in
India.
Challenger
Donald Trump, has a way of outraging the Democrat voter with his radical
pronouncements such as calling certain folk vermin at a veterans’ rally. It
works with the White Blue Collars, but not so much with others.
This Trump
loud-mouth will work in favour of Biden within his party and support groups, as
he invokes the ‘soul of the nation’ like a good Catholic.
Given his
long experience in politics, Biden and his handlers, should be able to best any
internal Democrat challengers. Biden also connects well with small groups and
people in small towns, his ‘Scranton Joe’ image from his hometown in Pennsylvania,
and likes going out to speak to them. Being the incumbent president is of
immense value in these acts of humility.
In foreign
policy, the only ones that can be glad all over are the ones that run the huge
military industrial complex in America. They are making massive profits from
sales. War is always good for such people.
Biden’s term began with an abrupt withdrawal
from Afghanistan leaving behind billions in sophisticated weaponry. While the
president got good domestic press for his decisiveness and bringing the troops
home, it left a power vacuum in the region, with security implications for
several nations, including India.
The war in
Ukraine, backed massively by the US and NATO, seems, in year two, to be stuck
in the mud and snow. Oil and gas prices are on the edge ever since this war in
Europe began. It started a spiral of increasing costs and prices of almost
everything for the Western Europeans. Most are not growing and, on the edge of,
or actually in, recession.
The
sanctions against Russia have not worked when it comes to petroleum, with
Russia selling all its output to China and India. In other areas, the Western
sanctions have put a check on componentry for Russian arms manufacturing and
other sectors. But countries such as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan (who sell ammunition
to both sides), North Korea, have made up for some of the shortages. China is
not directly involved in military supplies as yet, but is backing Russia.
The other
new war in the Middle East, with Israel staunchly backed by the US, in its
battle with the Hamas in Gaza, threatens to spread to and disrupt the sea-lanes
of the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, based in
Yemen, are slinging Iranian-made missiles, and employing Iranian-made drones,
on unarmed merchant ships and oil tankers. Rerouting is a very expensive
business, that would more than double the freight rates. Iran denies any
involvement. The war has also bled into Syria and against the Hezbollah in Lebanon
to an extent. Israel is quite prepared to attack Iran directly and has done so
in small part.
There are
Muslim groups in America vociferously opposed to the unstinted support to
Israel, but this is long term policy for America, unlikely to be affected by
radical press, university activism, or ethnic minority outrage. But will these
groups, mostly Democrat, vote for Biden? If they don’t, they cannot expect any
better from the Republicans either.
There is
another thing to consider. Incumbent presidents at war, or supporting them,
usually win their second terms convincingly.
The public does not like to change horses in mid-stream. Comparisons between
Biden and previous one term presidents may not be appropriate given the context.
As things
stand, the war in Israel-Gaza is likely to end much before the campaign period
does, with opportunities for statesmanship on the part of President Biden. In
Ukraine, President Putin of Russia has apparently indicated he is nor averse to
a ceasefire. If the US is able to bring the Ukraine war to a close it will stand
Biden in immense good measure.
It is true
that Biden’s approval rating at present is below 40% and most pollsters think
it is a dead heat between him and Trump, but the presidential campaign has not
yet truly begun.
For India,
it matters little who wins between Biden and Trump, assuming there are no
upsets at the line up on both sides. There are, on the face of it, no
alternative nominees for the top of the ticket in either political party.
What matters
for India, is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to win a third
consecutive term, with a majority for the BJP. This would mean policy
continuity. With the Indian economy chugging ahead at between 6 and 7 percent
in GDP per annum, we will be well placed to receive the winner in America with
warmth and confidence.
The
strategic relationship between India and the United States has been
painstakingly formulated over several Democrat and Republican administrations.
It has largely overcome its hesitations. China is the unabashed contender for
world domination, chafing at the bit. The India-America relationship has
already contributed towards giving the dragon some pause. This, as it wonders
upon, and ponders on, its relative strength vis a vis two battle-hardened and
formidable technological powers/armed forces.
India’s
relationship with America has consolidated its gains, is now definitely stable,
and poised for further growth.
(1,279
words)
December
28th, 2023
For:
Firstpost/News18.com
Gautam
Mukherjee
