China's Doomsday Scenario: 20% Cut To Economy & A Naval Gauntlet

China’s Doomsday Scenario: 20% Cut To Economy& A Naval Gauntlet

A full 20% of the declared Red Chinese economy is composed of exports. Though, in fact, the real figures may be even higher. Over 5% of this 20% is to America alone. Hypothetically, if America stops selling completely to China it will lose or impact 1% of its economy. But if it is the other way around, it is 5% gone for China.

The emerging coalition of democracies, including most of Western Europe except Germany as it stands; India, Japan, South Korea, and several others in the South East Asian region are cutting back sharply on investment from, and trade with, China.

The oil exporting nations of West Asia and elsewhere are caught in a cleft stick because of the oil and gas glut, and cannot therefore oppose Chinese hegemony too blatantly.

The Chinese government mouthpiece, Global Times, says even its exports of rare earth, is down 30% already. Losing its place as the key link in the supply chain of the world is proving disastrous for Xi Jinping’s China. But it may already be too late to reverse this trend.

In addition to this economic roiling, China is in trouble on the seas. It can be stopped via satellite surveillance, submarine, mine and cruise missile if necessary from safely reaching its ports on its Eastern face fronting the Pacific.  

The Pacific is patrolled and ruled by America from the end of WWII in concert with its allies. China, unfortunately does not have any maritime allies, and its navy is no match for America, NATO, and other allies.

And now, not only is the South China Sea being aggressively patrolled by the US and other navies; so are the Malacca Straits. These are both vital choke points. China is much more vulnerable on the high seas than ostensibly it is on land.

On land, China has at least undertaken quite a few battles over the last century, some of which it has even won. Most of them were localised and civil wars, between sides with similar levels of military sophistication. It has however never been in a naval battle at all since 1895, when it clashed with Japan. This resulted in the bulk of the Chinese fleet being sunk.

So today, China is an untested naval quantity, despite its ambitions to float a formidable blue-water navy to dominate the waterways of the world. The Americans are a tried and tested naval power by way of contrast.

Creating bridgehead ports at Djibouti, Sri Lanka, Chabahar , Gwadar and even ones in the Maldives and the Seychelles in prospect, is not going to be enough. China may want to dominate the Indian Ocean, but is unlikely to be allowed to do so. Besides, it does not bring goods and services intended for its eastern sea board any closer to dock.

It is the irony of geography that China cannot survive without servicing its eastern seaboard. The East of China is also its heartland, and the home of the dominant Han Chinese. Almost all other parts of China have been acquired by conquest and trickery in the not too distant past. Consequently, they are all restive, ethnically disparate, and none too cohesive.

Transporting goods, oil, gas, thousands of kilometres by land via Pakistan or  by sea via the Straits of Hormuz from the Gulf or farther  afield, is easier said than done. Nobody likes China in imperialist mode, and now that there is a collective forming, many are beginning to resist. Balochistan, for example, is is no mood to let the Chinese operate peacefully on its soil. Likewise, Afghanistan is pushing back against Chinese ally Pakistan.

China however wants to flout international laws and maritime conventions. For a long while it was allowed to get away with it. This may have misled it. But  it is now being firmly resisted by all the powers that be. The small countries in the littoral of the South China Sea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and even Australia and New Zealand, that moves much of its tonnage through the South China Sea, are no longer on their own.   

In effect, China may soon have to run the gauntlet across the powerful and practiced navies of the world. These include the US, Japanese, Australian, Indian, French and British navies. Russia, which has a very competent blue water navy, may not stand idly by if its interests are threatened

China cannot, in the hostile environment it has created, force its way through either the Malacca Straits or the South China Sea if America and its allies wish to prevent it. This can blockade its cargo ships and tankers and send them spinning through other tortuous routes and transhipments.

The still in formation Chinese Navy is no match for the combined capabilities of so many opposed to its hegemony.

India is also preparing hard to inflict a military defeat along the LaC particularly at Ladakh, and other hot spots where India is being menaced. It is also quite ready to fight a two-front war with Pakistan as necessary. Fortunately for India, the same broad coalition of powerful military nations including Israel, are in military and diplomatic support of the Indian position.

Can China withstand a military stand-off or defeat on land and sea as well as  the punishment of its export economy? Somehow, the die seems to have been cast. It may be too late for the economic damage already, but the military consequences are still in the balance.

China may be hoping against hope that President Trump is defeated and replaced by President Biden in November. But even if that happens, the permanent interests of America against the recent Chinese bid to overthrow its primacy will not disappear. A new president will not surrender to Chinese bullying any more than the present one. The style may change, but the substance will not.

It is often speculated that the recent military aggression against so many countries including Taiwan, Japan, India, and economic threats against several more such as Britain, Australia, Canada is caused by China’s internal problems.

Sections of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) underpinned by the Peoples’ Liberation Army(PLA) are unhappy with Xi Jinping’s leadership. The  economic slowdown of the last few years is taking its toll. Growth rates from the double digits have plummeted to less than 6% per annum. There is massive unemployment and a mountain of bad debt.

The jingoism therefore is said to be an effort to distract the population. That Hong Kong has also been put under the CCP lash of late may also be to contain dissent and incipient rebellion from spreading to the mainland. However, the whole effort, both internally and externally, has been misjudged and clumsily handled.

It has been brought to a head by the global pandemic caused by the Wuhan Virus. There is a persistent feeling globally, that aspects of bio-warfare are now very much on the table from Red China. A recent pact with Pakistan to develop Anthrax and other bio-weapons jointly seems to confirm this perception.

This diabolical behaviour is the last straw that has broken the back of Chinese credibility. The world does not trust Red China any more. It does not wish to be dependent on it.

China is thought to be hiding the true facts on the Wuhan Laboratory where the man-made virus was apparently developed, and the millions of Chinese it has purportedly killed in the first wave. Despite this, there were no restrictions on its wilful export abroad, particularly to America and Europe.

What remains to be seen, now that the world has risen up against it, is whether China sees it is best to retreat from its quest for world domination. It is a spurious idea that is not acceptable to anyone.

If China does not lower the pitch of its ambition, it is headed for open conflict. It is a fight, despite its large and untested armed forces, it has no chance of winning. Real war is not a drill, as Chairman Mao may well have said. Certainly he knew that revolution was not a dinner party.

(1,345 words)

For: SirfNews

28^th July 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

India Versus China: Use Dogra Maps And Game Theory

India Versus China : Use Dogra Maps And Game Theory  

The fresh news is that China has agreed to pull back to its side of the LaC from the positions inside Indian territory. That is, if it doesn’t renege, or interminably drag its feet or play victim cum fresh aggressor. India is ordering winter tents and cold weather clothes for its troops in any case. It will never again leave the  LaC demilitarised with a few soldiers on patrol duties.

But what about all the encroachment through the decades? During the Khalistan agitation, for example. And the building of a road to the Pangong Tso, and black-topping it, taking advantage of the distractions of the Kargil War.  

The Chinese don’t accept the McMahon Line. They don’t accept other British era maps either. Instead they talk of ancient claims. They have refused to settle the border since 1949. There are wide variations between the Indian and Chinese positions. They claim the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh. Our LaC stretches to nearly 4,000 km. The Chinese LaC is only 2,200 km. long.

The bullying and arrogance has been immense, but India in 2020, may have finally reached its tipping point in offering a military challenge. The all weather tunnels, roads, bridges and rail have almost caught up on our side. High altitude regiments are battle fit.

To counter Chinese prevarication at future border talks, we must point out that two can play this game. India must have the confidence to dust off the Dogra Maps of the erstwhile Kingdom of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), to assert claims to what has long been Indian territory. This excellent negotiating point and possible war of the maps was made by prominent strategic thinker Shakti Sinha in a recent article.

China had come to a Mexican standoff,  much to its surprise. Its latest multiple but shallow intrusions have gained it nothing except the distinct possibility of imminent, no-holds barred war. And this possibility will hover in the air from now onwards alongside economic sanctions and boycotts.

What worked very well for Red China in the capture of thousands of kilometres of Indian territory since the 1950s, has been thwarted this time at Ladakh. Just as it was in Doklam in Bhutan, and at Nathu La at Sikkim, recently. 

A war of attrition is the inevitable next step with India unwilling to concede.  And this   will have to come to settle India’s territorial claims. China and satellite Pakistan will be forced to defend its mutual position or capitulate. And India has to take back the territory or lose it forever. It will also come under increasing pressure in future unless it fights for what belongs to it. Talks are not seen as sincere by either side but must go on for form’s sake. They are being used only to gain time, look for a strategic opening, and prepare the military machine.

A war is coming, in which the Chinese are likely to suffer a large number of casualties, irrespective of what they are able to inflict on the Indians. And, this time, they cannot be sure whether they will gain or lose territory. India is going on the offensive. It will take back PoK and Gilgit Baltistan. Strategic depth in the Ladakh theatre is also desirable to protect this interconnected restoration.

China has been playing the same game for long. Its earlier annexation of Indian Akshai Chin and part of the Siachen glacier needs consolidation. It has built roads into the adjoining province of Xinjiang. The road ranges from the Indian owned Karakoram Pass, a mere 10 km away from the Indian high altitude airport at Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO).

It goes, via Xinjiang into the Khunjerab Pass that lets out into Gilgit-Baltistan, which is, once again occupied Indian territory. Another road leads from China to Tibet passing throughout on Indian territory.

India has recently completed connector roads and bridges to DBO in the face of Chinese protests, and can now swiftly mobilise its armed forces. Just as China can, on its side of the LaC.

China’s incursions and persistent land grabs have indeed been aided by the development of extensive infrastructure and roads over the years. It has become so adept at this process that it has also made bold to throw up roads and check posts on the Indian side whenever it could.

In Game Theory there is a situation called The Prisoner’s Dilemma. A couple have been caught by the police for a suspected robbery in a stolen car. The police are trying to extract confessions. If one of the prisoners confess to the robbery, the other one goes free. If both refuse to confess they get equal sentences. If neither confess, they can still be convicted for stealing the car. But the sentence for stealing a car which has been recovered is much less. What should the Red Chinese do, given that it is cornered? The world is fed up with it, and is breathing down its neck at the South China Sea, in the Taiwan and the Malacca Straits as well. The intimidation bluff is not working any more.   

Lao Tzu’s Art of War has animated Communist China’s military strategy. The process was vastly aided by going back on solemn treaties, subterfuge, treachery, sudden stabs in the back, as in 1962. It resulted in a bonanza of consolidation.

Once such deeds are done, Red China uses a flurry of propaganda, misinformation, outright lies, mirroring what happened, with the culprits reversed. That China makes preposterous claims when it only grabbed Tibet in 1950, is remarkable. It is undeniable that it is Tibet that has always bordered Ladakh.

Mao swiftly took Tibet after coming to power in 1949. India was foolish enough to agree to this without demur. But the young Dalai Lama, who lives in India still after 61 years, had to flee to save his life in 1959. He and the Tibetan people, both in country and in exile, have been experiencing the extent of what Red Chinese protection means ever since.

This imperialist and crafty process, is in keeping with the tenets of the Art of War.  The treatise’s greatest claim to fame is its advice on how to be victorious without getting down to actual combat. But  its teachings work best when the enemy is caught napping and there is no resolute and credible challenge.

The intimidation as policy came unstuck at Galwan on the 15^th of June 2020. Reports coming from China now say up to 100 Chinese soldiers were killed by Indian troops in hand-to-hand combat. What will be the consequence of a battle hardened and well equipped Indian military, taking on a largely conscripted Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), apparently superior in equipment, but manned by soldiers who have never seen battle? We are soon going to find out.

(1,131 words)

For: WIONEWS

July 7^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee