The Supertech Demolition :Humpty Dumpty Fell But What About the King’s Men?

Are demolitions of illegal buildings that come up in collusion with the sanctioning authorities a solution at all, or a colossal, unimaginative waste of resources? Even if one were to argue that such blatant flouting of the rules must be punished, why are some buildings taken down and not others? Why are no government officials ever punished for wrong-doing of this order when bribes are likely to have been paid by unscrupulous builders? Even bankers of public sector units serving and retired are rarely prosecuted when they collude with borrowers who decamp with millions in tax payer monies.

It is hard to determine whether this lack of public accountability is more reprehensible or the wrong doing of builders and their cohorts. Is it because there are powerful political figures operating via the government officials and bankers and investigating the minions will expose the overlords? How much rot is truly operative in the system at the expense of the honest tax payer and the common man?

Humpty Dumpty, the short, clumsy person in its original avatar, also a drink of ale mixed with brandy, and even an allusion to the humpbacked King Richard III, was not at first an egg at all. He was something of a scapegoat that is brought down to protect other villains. Mostly, he cannot be restored to his former stature, but not for being a broken egg. Humpty Dumpty can be an innocent rather than a ‘rotten egg’, a front for loot and plunder of the public with multiple shadowy participants. A political victim.

Supertech says it has lost Rs. 500 crores in under 10 seconds as their twin towers in Noida, part of the NCR region, were brought down. Nearly 4,000 kg of explosives were used in the implosion that reduced the over 100 metres tall twin towers into 80 tons of rubble, three storeys high. It will take months to clear the debris. Why is this portrayed as a triumph instead of a tragedy? How much hypocrisy is being absolved behind the arras?

It cost Rs. 20 crores to accomplish the demolition itself and had to be done with the help of a specialised expert firm from South Africa. The litigation costs on all sides were extra. The time taken ran into over a decade. The human anguish caused to the prospective buyers, their families, the builder, his suppliers, creditors etc. are incalculable.

 These were the tallest luxury residential buildings brought down in India so far. The foreign press took note, describing the demolition as that of India’s Petronas Towers, the iconic buildings in Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur, there a proud landmark featured in the movies, here, wilfully destroyed.

Earlier, similar judicial decision on grounds of flouting norms had two up-market towers illegally built in the Cochin backwaters, too close to the water line, also demolished in a similar manner. There are threats of demolition in the tourist destination of Goa for buildings too close to the shoreline, under present laws, but some of its first five-star hotels built during Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s hosting of CHOGM, were built right on the beach. There were no rules to stop it then.

The Supreme Court ordered the Supertech demolition months ago, upholding a similar decision of the Allahabad High Court. The builders have been trying to find suitable demolition experts that could do the job without damaging power and gas lines, or indeed the neighbouring, fully occupied, towers. It is ironic that the media keeps assuring us that the destruction of the buildings will not in any way add to air or water pollution. How can it when the Supreme Court ordered the destruction?

The petitioners were the concerned RWA, who discovered on a map, while the towers were going up, that they would have had a legitimate green patch where the illegal towers stood. The Residents Welfare Association pursued the case against the builders Supertech, and the Noida Authority that approved the illegal structures, for over a decade, bearing their own legal expenses. So, obviously there were a lot of delighted residents who had crusaded against the illegal construction and finally won. People also came from far and wide to watch the spectacle of the towers coming down on a Sunday, the 28^th of August, 2022, albeit from a safe distance.

Other moral activists opined that it would caution other builders from undertaking such blatant illegality in collusion with the approving authorities in future. Meanwhile there were poignant pictures of the demolition engineers praying inside the doomed towers, tears in their eyes, to beg forgiveness before they pressed the button. Indians, even those employed by South African demolition experts, are not insensitive or irreverent atheists with legalese in place of their spiritual core.

Many home buyers who had booked and paid for flats in the erstwhile towers had been partially paid back in some cases, with 12.5% interest, but not in full. The reparations included allocation of plots or flats in other untainted Supertech projects in Noida. Others have not been that lucky and continue in limbo.

There is no one addressing the plight of these buyers as it stands, the legal position being the buyer needs to beware, (Caveat Emptor). He should have made his own investigations before investing in the project is the prim, if impractical, position. That this is callous does not seem to faze the Government of Uttar Pradesh which has made no comment or issued any assistance or relief measures. The Supreme Court likewise has refrained from looking at anything beyond the illegalities of the builder and the Noida Authority in arriving at its confirmation of the High Court order.

There are allegedly 22 Noida Authority officials who had colluded with Supertech nearly two decades ago. Of these, two have since died, and 20 others are in comfortable retirement. There is no word on punishment for these allegedly erring officials. No threats of demolition of their property. No  famed bulldozers to punish them for their alleged perfidy.

So, as it stands, this demolition appears to be a very one-sided thing. The RWA went after the builder with its legal suit, and the builder has been duly chastised. Nobody, including the current Government of Uttar Pradesh has pursued the officials that allowed and sanctioned the illegal construction. These officials, now retired, let a 35 to 40 storey set of twin structures come up over a construction period of seven years.

The present officials of the Noida Authority were defendants, clubbed together with Supertech, and have lost their case alongside. 

The buildings have been mothballed since about 2010 when the RWA began its litigation. Some say, they may have become unsafe anyway.

It is possible logically that there will be a phase two to the saga now that the structures have been brought down. But since the Noida Authority as it is presently constituted fought the case against the RWA, perhaps it will be held culpable, and not just the retired individuals.

How did the Noida Authority give a revised sanction to a 35 to 40 storey structure when the original sanction was for 14 storeys? How did it allow the buildings to come up just 9 meters, 30 odd feet, away from the other towers?

There is another notorious building, still standing, 31 storeys tall, the Adarsh Housing Society in the Colaba Armed Forces area, near various accommodation for Naval officers and staff in Mumbai. It was originally sanctioned for the families of the Kargil martyrs. However, a number of senior government ministers, including three chief ministers of Maharashtra, senior politicians, bureaucrats and professionals managed to buy flats in this building.

There has been talk of demolition in this case too, but nothing untoward has been sanctioned so far. There have been violations of environmental regulations as well. Perhaps, because of the multiplicity of powerful people who have sanctioned the project, bought and occupied the flats, sometimes via family members and proxies, nothing has been done. The matter has been a scam since 2010, but apart from some senior defence personnel who have been arrested and let out on bail, there is little progress in the case.

It is scandalous that wrong doing across the board is only selectively punished. Certainly, the government holding itself blameless when it comes to prosecution smacks of a two tier form of democracy with the law givers placed above the law. Take it or leave it.

  (1,401 words)

August 29^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 A Rohingya Comedy of Errors And Sins Of the Father

Who let in so many of the dangerously anti-social Islamic community of Rohingyas into India? That too, most surreptitiously. There are as many as 40,000 in cities like New Delhi, Hyderabad, Jammu. Rohingyas, that Myanmar forcibly expelled as bloodthirsty trouble-makers, and Bangladesh confined to an island?

Myanmar forced as many as 740,000  out of its 1.4 million Rohingyas to flee, initially to Bangladesh. In India, it has long been allegedly a dastardly UPA tale to increase the Islamic footprint with its own set of natural subversives as a pressure group. This, even as the UPA tends to suggest they got in, illegally, but on their own initiative. There are Rohingyas in West Bengal too, and those might have been aided and abetted in their illegal entry by the TMC government that rules the state.

But the Rohingyas in J&K and others in Delhi and Hyderabad were let in as refugees of sorts  while the UPA government was in power,  allegedly under the aegis of Salman Khurshid as Union Foreign Minister. When quizzed on it Khurshid tends to hem and haw with lofty attitudes about refugees, without however being the least bit apologetic.

The latest chapter in the tale has the AAP government of Arvind Kejriwal, renowned for its sympathy towards illegal Bangladeshi refugees including Rohingyas ex Bangladesh, a large number of whom live in North East Delhi the scene of recent bloody riots. The riots were clearly helped and sponsored by certain AAP functionaries of Bangladeshi extraction. Now AAP has been trying to establish 1,100 of the Rohingyas in Central Government owned EWS quarters under Delhi Police guard, as UN designated refugees.

Ostensibly, this was agreed in May 2022, with the collusion of high officials in the Union Home Ministry and the Chief Secretary of the Delhi Government. An astounding, off-policy and totally out-of-character announcement was made on Wednesday 17^th August via a tweet from the Union Urban Development Minister Hardeep Puri. He appeared to welcome and hail the development and called it a decision of the Central Government.

Shortly afterwards, on the same day, there was another announcement, a fairly long one by way of a press conference, that stated the 1,100 Rohingyas were to stay put in their existing refugee camp pending deportation. And that the Home Ministry had issued no instructions whatsoever to shift the to EWS flats under Delhi Police protection.

And thereby probably hangs a tale of confusion confounded. Not only did it suggest a reversal of policy initially with regard to the unwanted Rohingyas, but it shocked many as no such consideration had been shown to Hindu refugees from Pakistan or Afghanistan, or indeed Muslim ones from Afghanistan or elsewhere. 

Was it therefore some very clever misinformation that bamboozled the highly sophisticated Union Minister Hardeep Puri, as well as large sections of the Indian media?

Is someone out to embarrass Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah on a day when a couple of senior ministers were dropped from the BJP Parliamentary board amid the elevation of several other notables from Karnataka, Telangana, Assam and Maharashtra?

After the brief drama was laid to rest with the BJP’s status quo announcement, Minister Hardeep Puri, promptly if cryptically, endorsed the changed position.

For a brief moment however, it did draw the national attention to the problem of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, including those that originated in Myanmar like the Rohingyas, and the embedded security threat they pose. Some have even been settled by the erstwhile J&K government including Congress at the centre well before Article 370 was revoked. They were settled in close proximity to military establishments in Jammu. Why? Who wants a separate Kashmir amongst the political classes in India in addition to Pakistan?

It is estimated there are as many as 4 crore illegal immigrants from  Bangladesh who have spread out all over the country.  They are prominent in  Communist ruled Kerala. Many have acquired false papers, even as gently handled protests have stalled the efforts like the NRC and CAA.

The deportation of illegal refugees is a matter long spoken of, that has seen little or no progress on the ground. Sensitivities in bilateral relations with both Myanmar and Bangladesh are in the way. Meanwhile there is elaborate criticism from Human Rights Groups abroad, lobbies inimical to the progress of India in the West, as well as sections of the Indian Opposition who want all these people and more absorbed by India.

That this is not what the Western stance is with regard to more than a very limited number of refugees entering their own countries is conveniently ignored. It is therefore yet another plank to try and weaken India in its quest  to become a developed country by 2047.

Unwanted refugees, Islamic militantcy, insurgency fomented by Pakistan and China, terrorism, Maoist revolutionaries, radical anti-government intellectuals taking advantage of their democratic freedoms and students who think like them, organisations backed by American evangelists, and others backed by billionaire George Soros, those who spread Hindumisia or Hinduphobia, are all part of this plot.

So far India has avoided taking any kind of harsh stance, favouring a relentless gradualism and assiduous diplomacy instead. This has frustrated those forces that have long tried to provoke a more heated response. Both the upper echelons of the Bangladesh government and the Myanmar junta are busy opening new avenues of cooperation with India to our mutual benefit. India is using its forbearance about the refugees to good diplomatic purchase.

However, the stance of eventual identification of illegals, their confinement in designated camps under amed guard, and their eventual deportation, in small batches if necessary, has not been lost sight of.

It is also seen that with increased scrutiny and pressure on illegal refugees and those who help them, including Rohingyas, some are leaving by the same clandestine routes they took to get into the country in the first place. This rather than be incarcerated in illegal refugee camps.

India has long been unique in its foreign policy choices and its ability to wear down its enemies. This may not suit the occidental mind in particular with its penchant of favouring yes or no binaries, but is not that different from the way China thinks, minus the belligerence of course. It may be the way adopted by old civilisations that understand the effects of time and space on a given problem in the long run.

(1,067 words)

August 17^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

Fu Manchu Strikes Again, Targets Apps, Cellphones, Needy Countries, Poor People

Dr. Fu Manchu or Fu Manzhou in Chinese, is an immortal arch-villain. He dwells in the adventure stories written by English author Sax Rohmer from before WWI and for the next forty years as the age of Western imperialism faded.

Fu Manchu was a big hit for his sheer malevolence. He graduated onto celluloid from the silent movie days – the first appearance being The Zayat Kiss in 1912 and later, The Face Of Fu Manchu, The Brides Of, The Blood Of, The Mask Of, The Castle Of, The Vengeance of the Mysterious Dr. Fu Manchu.

He was on television, in serials, on the radio, comic strips/books, popular music, and on the Marvel franchise, where he still is, wagging his bushy eyebrows, after 90 years. 

No more the bowing and scraping ‘Coolie’ of the poor immigrant, Fu Manchu is nevertheless depicted in stereotypical Chinese pig tail, but now in upper strata Mandarin costume, with a trademark wispy drooping moustache. He plays mad scientist, supervillain, assassin, crime boss suiting his skulduggery to the opportunity. It was quite a career in ‘the unemotional cruelty of the Chinese’, the one-man Yellow Peril.

The inscrutable but violent Chinese underworld thrives still in the West, most notably in Canada and in pockets throughout the United States, dealing largely in drugs, money laundering and prostitution.

The current day Chinese spy networks likewise are spread to multiple countries via their universities, where Chinese funding is prominent, in media, through lobbyists, via the ubiquitous ‘Confucius Institutes’ that Rishi Sunak recently vowed to uproot should he become head of the Conservative Party and UK prime minister.

The Chinese also do a lot of intelligence gathering via their cyber warfare infrastructure, Chinese made electronics, the 5G and beyond backbones developed (and largely banned by many countries including India, Canada, the US) by Huawei.

Over the years the Red Chinese have been very successful at stealing military designs and secrets from other advanced countries.

Fu Manchu could be the new Chinese logo instead of the hammer and sickle, for typifying current day Red China with its menace in the South and East China Sea, the Indian Ocean, Taiwan, on India’s borders and boundary disputes with multiple countries. It follows sharp trade practices wherever it goes, and deliberately bankrupts countries with its expensive loans and rapacious accumulation of collateral from debtor nations.

The spirit of Dr. Fu Manchu, once seen as a Western caricature of aggressive Chinese intent out to dominate the world still lives! It lives on in the hearts of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and its dragons, who now wear unremarkable hairstyles, dark blue Western lounge suits and red ties. 

For a time, the West lost its way, persuaded by President Nixon and Secretary of State Kissinger, in the 1970s, to see the Chinese as allies in the struggle to bring down the evil Soviets. It was in this period that depictions of the sinister Yellow Peril was diluted into satire.

It asked for laughs on the Goon Show and Fu Manchu played by the Inimitable Peter Sellers in 1980.

Fu Manchu has risen to full strength villainy again, and is now determined to inflict both insult and injury to the lumbering elephant next door. Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo have been caught out in their tax evasion, filling and decamping to China with their swag bags of laundered money. The elephant came in late, but has now seized assets and bank deposits. It has banned fast selling Chinese phones priced at under Rs. 12,000 in the Indian market which is the second largest in the world.

Fu Manchu on his part is having trouble selling phones domestically in China riven by Covid lockdowns and a sharp economic slow-down. It is likewise down on its exports elsewhere, as the Western world, its chief clients, are dealing with high inflation and near recession post-Covid and because of the ongoing Ukraine War. Besides, everyone is busy reducing their dependence of the Chinese Supply Chain.

In India hundreds if not thousands of illegal Apps offer (over the internet) short term small loans of as little as Rs.10,000 up to about Rs. 10 lakhs.  They proliferated during the Covid lockdowns and were often availed of by financially illiterate, desperate people, at the bottom of the pyramid.

The loans are disbursed on a no-questions-asked or collateral demanded basis, and instantly. But every contact on the debtor’s cellphone is accessed along with its name, address, and other particulars. Then the nightmare begins, almost immediately, certainly within a week. Eventually, those who are unable to pay on time accumulate a whopping, unimaginable, galloping 2,100% interest.

Fu Manchu is ruthless. He puts intimate pictures stored on your cellphone on the Internet, if you don’t pay on time. This, along with tags to everyone you know from the Swiggy and Zomato delivery services, (the latter currently under boycott by all right thinking Hindus), to the girl in your office that you are keeping secret from your mother and wife.

It takes 25% of your loan up-front as processing fee. It sends lewd messages to your daughter if you can’t cough up. It assists in India’s population control by causing, aiding, and abetting multiple suicides by borrowers who can’t take the relentless harassment any more.

Alarmed by the difficulties caused by unregulated loans given out by Chinese owned NBFCs, the government is cracking down on all such loan apps and those who are involved in their disbursements. In some instances, monies in their accounts have also been seized.

It's not just Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal in India’s immediate neighbourhood that Fu Manchu has driven into a beholden bankruptcy. It has picked on the hoi polloi of India in order to punish the common man for the arrogance of the Indian rulers who refuse to kow-tow to the dragon. It is also breathing fire on India’s borders. Fu Manchu has been caught out by the Indian elephant though, and must invent new dastardly schemes to keep the running battle going.

The Chinese are good at painting themselves innocent in their Global Times mouthpiece and in bland statements from their foreign office. They even advice India on how it shouldn’t put obstacles in the way of trade. There is not a word however on culpability, on wilful fraud, on relentless economic warfare and espionage with intent to subvert and harm.

Placing multiple restrictions and stepping up scrutiny may yield some results, but ultimately throwing out Chinese enterprise and trade seems to be the only remedy, as they refuse to change their ways. However, with a huge trade account balance in China’s favour it looks like India cant do without Chinese goods.

India is not alone in coming to this hard conclusion towards expulsion. Even long-term friends and trading partners like Germany are acting against the Chinese now. Nobody is going to let Dr.Fu Manchu get away with it despite the pains involved in separation. If he can’t help being the eternal villain then he must meet his nemesis. The old pig-tail wearing dynasties are gone. Will it be the turn of the blue-suited CPC villains next?

(1,185 words)

24^th August 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Prime Minister’s Independence Day Speech: The Maturing Of A Nation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke on the occasion of India’s 75^th Independence Day, as usual, from the ramparts of the Red Fort in Delhi. This was his 9^th Independence Day speech, remarkable for the energy and verve he displayed, dressed in a special tiranga turban. The number of times he said ‘new’ set the theme.

There he was, a national and international leader, already a legend in his own time, an unabashed showman, with a Baz Luhrman like flair for spectacle and pageantry, the black bomb proof SUVs, but a man of the common people with it all.  He called India the mother of democracy. He called India an aspirational society.

A consummate outsider, ensconced firmly amongst the labyrinths of the national power elite. He is here, centre stage, to put right all its wrongs. The  voting public believes him, much to the chagrin of his opponents. It cheers him on, his popularity undiminished through the thick and thin of over eight years as prime minister. None of his broken promises are held against him, his failures are accepted as debris left over from his best efforts. The polls never dip enough to give the other contenders any hope at all.

The speech itself was almost 90 minutes long, forward looking, from the nation’s 75^th year, towards the century mark, in 2047.  Indigenously developed Drone Blockers made an appearance for the first time amongst all the elaborate, if unobtrusive, security arrangements. Modi, for all the immense threat perception, has never stood behind bullet-proof glass at the Red Fort for any of his speeches.

The prime minister also made a point of walking up and down various red carpeted staircases, stopping to wave frequently at the crowds. There was a quiet display of fitness despite his over seventy years.

It was recently announced by Home Minister Amit Shah that Narendra Modi would indeed lead the BJP campaign for a third consecutive term in office in 2024. In this 75^th year speech, Modi kept his gaze staring out at the quarter century horizon, rather than any word on his plans for the next two years till the general election. To have him in the saddle, come 2024, is reassuring continuity, and the likelihood of his setting the country on its now very ambitious growth path.

At the end of it, in a beautifully symbolic action for the TV cameras, he walked through pathways in a seeming garden of colourfully dressed representatives of all the Indian States and Union Territories. They were arranged like the map of the nation, the amazing unity in diversity principle he mentioned in his speech, in an echo of Jawaharlal Nehru. Though, at the same time, Nehru had been left out of some prior government advertisements on freedom fighters, even as Veer Savarkar was pointedly added.

The prime minister walked among his people, greeting all participants, smiling, hands folded in a namaskar, shaking hands with some. Several burst into traditional dances from their states as he came to them.

The monsoon rain that fell intermittently through the day on the 14^th of August redesignated the horrors of the partition day, was graciously absent on the 15^th . A festooned and bedecked Red Fort, covered some of its stony severity. Amrit Utsov buntings and banners, complete with a pair of mechanical elephants at the entrance to the Lahori Gate, underlined the changes wrought under Modi. He is a very positive and unabashed sort of leader.

The rain was absent as the prime minister unfurled the national flag and delivered his speech, watched by government ministers, brass from the armed forces, members of the opposition, a large number of ambassadors, children from the NCC. It was a kind of benediction that no weather came to ruin the show. The foreign nations monitoring, judging from the tone and tenor of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech, will realise India is declaring it cannot be stopped. Interfering with its national narrative, putting hurdles in its path, will be brushed aside. Beginnings, as they know, have already been made.

The remarks were light this time on the traditional cataloguing of the government’s achievements. Instead, there was a firm and visionary focus on the next 25 years. The independent Republic of India will be 100 then. It will become a developed nation said the prime minister.

He did not, in his speech spell any of this out, but as has been oft repeated, India will be ranked at No. 3 in the world, only behind America and China per present projections, but could do even better, based on how its pans out for the other two.

The economy itself will run into more than $10 trillion in GDP, perhaps even rise to $30 trillion. This will amply service the needs of a gargantuan population, the highest in the world. The growth in the number of companies with $1 billion in turnover has spread from IT into manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. It is the highest such growth rate in the world over the last decade. India has over 140 billionaires now, but with the kind of growth envisaged, the per capita income, for the last man that concerned Mahatma Gandhi, referenced by Modi, will also quadruple. With India’s  purchase power parity (PPP) advantages, the effects will be dramatic.

Even the revamping of traditional sectors such as Textiles holds enormous promise, as does the innovation of the Start Up universe, the largest in the world. Ethanol in petrol, derived from surplus sugar cane, is already saving billions in import costs of fuel at 10% addition. Soon it will double to 20%. India is doing well at reducing its carbon footprint as promised, and its generation of clean energy such as solar power is proceeding apace.

This 75^th year marks the triumph over the tribulations of colonialism and a bloody partition. It marks the success achieved, and indeed, the interminable challenges overcome, in multiple fields. We are no longer held back by issues of basic day to day needs.

But now, said the prime minister, to paraphrase his intent, we need to change gears to get the main job done that will catapult this nation to the full realisation of its potential.

He laid out a set of five vows, abstractions, that his concrete plans will rapidly turn into reality. Still, the people on board with such transformative government initiatives are an infinite force multiplier.

We cannot tolerate blatant, audacious corruption, he said. We have to minimise family rule in political parties, a philosophy that has spread into other fields too. Prime Minister Modi said this towards the end of his speech, sending a clear message. This, of course, will probably be the most debated aspect of his speech, because it impinges on the very basis of many political entities. Quite a few quickly accused the prime minister of turning a blind eye on the corrupt in the BJP itself.

Nevertheless, in a situation where the BJP/NDA is projected to come in for a third term in power, that too with a majority, this aspect, of nepotism and corruption is bone-chilling. It questions the legitimacy and threatens the survival of most of the opposition. Of course,  the idea plays extremely well with the voting public, fed up with much of the political class and their closed club approach to pelf and power. There is little space for outside entrants without money,power, or networks. Merit however, is valued in the BJP.

Ushering in the future however will involve a sea change in public attitudes. We have to unleash Nari Shakti said the prime minister. The prime minister spoke in terms of respect for women, but it is a fact that only 20% of the women in India are participants in the workforce.

Prime Minister Modi, skilled at involving the public at large in his initiatives, exhorted the people of India to uproot the remaining vestiges of colonialism and be proud of our heritage. He spoke side by side of 5G, of Start Ups, of research and development,technological advancements, of aatmanirbharta. Of not being dependent in strategic issues on any other nation or force. He did not mention semiconductors, but it is emblematic of the new thrust areas.

Modi asked the people to shed the evils of communalism, divisiveness, see through the wiles of our enemies. He called for an abolition of the slave mindset that constantly sought Western approval. After all, it is America that considers India to be an indispensable strategic partner now, though Modi did not say so here.  

Most of all, internally and externally, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that nothing will deter India from attaining its objectives now. Its time, as the saying goes, has come.

 

(1,450 words)

August 15^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Unleashing The Powers Of An Economy Like India’s

Unleashing the powers of an economy like India’s has unexpected and altogether wonderful outcomes.  The first thing to go was the begging bowl. Next the mindset that poverty was our destiny. Third was the renewed awareness of our diversity of topography and considerable natural and intellectual resources.

Power flowed through our veins. It ran on, amongst the gullies and pathways, the wheat fields, flowers in the meadows, unfettered by low expectations, watched over by soaring eagles and kites. It was full of colour and sound, music of wind instruments, accompanied by the beating of joyous drums.

This is our 75^th year of independence awash in the tricolour and milestones of many accomplishments. This, all the more remarkable because most of the shackles were only removed in 1991.

Slowly, the meaning of not being bound hand and foot has dawned on an entrepreneurial people. We became many things thereafter. We became food surplus, milk surplus, information technology behemoths, hubs for automobile manufacture, electronics, textiles, garments, design, digital networks, start-ups, arms production, producers of a new kind of proud, confident, patriotic, film.

We acquired a new and vibrant leadership.  We were not ashamed of our long suppressed culture and traditions anymore.  As we changed, we became appreciated for our unique Sanatana Dharma that coerced no one. And yet, it was the oldest religion in the world by centuries going into antiquity. A religion that has defied and triumphed over marauders and invaders, and new-fangled isms, all baffled by its vibrant paganism, tenacity, sheer durability.

The age-old eternal India is one thing, but the West is scratching its head at how India has good ‘macro-fundamentals’ in economic crisis ridden 2022.

How did India possess and retain ‘good bones’ when all the calcium of the economic thinkers, prize winners, Nobel laureates, the Left, Right and Centrist thinkers, are supposedly in the West.

Except, that is, for the tokenism of a couple of inevitably Leftist Bengalis, well-paid in Western universities. The duo, adorned with Nobel prizes, chosen, not for save-the-world growth strategies, but for their give-it-away poverty/welfare economics. A kind of thesis for emerging nations. There was nothing in their theories about revenue generation. How then are poor nations going to give it all away? Strange how the Nobel Committee thought a how-to -spread-wealth-and-resources to the poor was striking enough. Not just once, but twice. It is a signal lesson that the overdone welfarism of many European countries, including Sweden, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Britain, is now hard to sustain.  

Not surprising therefore, that a Covid pandemic, followed by a provoked war in Ukraine, some three years in the mix, has got the West to the point of an economic crisis. It is contemplating recession, food shortages, a cold winter with gas and fuel rationing, unprecedented inflation.

It has brought its own everyday life to a sorry pass. In the past, such a state was associated with smirking condescension towards third-world countries on the other side of what was assumed to be a permanent North-South divide.

Their much-vaunted sense of organisation and order is in shambles. What are the true wages of unsustainable debt in horribly slowed economies? Where are the markets for anything except armaments?

Who can answer for the hundreds of economic mistakes that have produced a 18^th or 19^th century style bust in the age of information and 24x7 global connectivity?

American inflation is at a 40 year high at 8.5%, and the EU has 7.5%, when both are used to under 2%. Growth is at 3% odd on both sides of the Atlantic currently, but if recession sets in, it could drive it into the negatives.

Will the massive American arms sales to Europe keep it afloat rather better than the EU and Britain reeling under the side-effects of the sanctions it has imposed on Russia?

India, by way of contrast, is looking at 7 to 7.8% growth this year (The World Bank projects 7.5%), based on better agricultural production and a revived rural economy after Covid.

India managed Covid better than any country in the world, inoculating over 1 billion people, exporting and giving away vaccines to needy countries. It took economic measures such as free grain distribution to the poor without affecting the inflation statistics. We prevented dire hardship.

Ukraine has not affected India’s food surplus situation, and we have exported grain to a number of countries who asked for it. The relatively modest inflation India is facing is due to the rise in fuel costs. 80% of our ever-expanding crude and gas requirements, are still imported. Current spike in oil prices is likely to subside as low growth or recession in the West cools demand.

Petroleum based fertilizer imports have also been adversely affected with scarcities and soaring prices. This is being mitigated by the development of liquid urea in-country, and projected self-sufficiency with it in due course.

The Reserve Bank of India, (RBI projects a growth of 7.2% for this fiscal), had cut interest rates multiple times to tide over the Covid years. It is now raising them to curb inflation per classic economic theory. But it must be remembered that imported inflation via fuel prices will not respond very much to this measure. The Centre and several states have also cut taxes on retail fuel at the pumps to help the economy.

Retail inflation, riding at 7.04% in May 2022, is easing, but is quite a bit higher than the RBI’s upper bar at 6%, and is now ongoing for the 5^th month.

This is similar to what America is doing to bring down inflation, thereby slowing down business growth in an environment reared on zero interest rates since 2008, accompanied by billions of dollars in stimulus. Many American businesses are giving up, unable to rise to the challenge in the face of flaccid demand.

In India’s case however, there is little or no chance of rising interest rates resulting in recession. Demand has revived. We are headed towards business as usual.

In 2021-22, the Indian economy grew at 8.7% up from 6.6% the year before and we are looking at upwards of 7% this year too. This is the highest in the world amongst major economies, with China coming in next at 5.5% growth.

However, the pressure on the rupee versus the US dollar has seen it fall relentlessly over the years to nearly Rs. 80/1 $ because of almost all imports, particularly massive amounts of petroleum, being designated in dollars.

This is beginning to change, with the Rupee-Rouble trade in Russian oil and with other rupee denominated trades. As the Indian economy grows to $5 trillion and beyond this situation will rectify.

Right now, it’s the oil exporters who are seeing an appreciation in their currency and growth in their GDPs. Saudi Arabia has posted a 12% growth in its GDP based on petroleum sales and profits.

In India’s case, with a fall in the rupee of under 1.5% over the 12 months past, it would have been worse if not for robust exports and tax collections. Manufacturing has revived against fresh demand, with the S&P’s Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) coming in at 54.6 in May 2022, keeping above the 50 mark for 11 months in a row. Below 50 would signal a contraction.

On its part, credit offtake is also doing well, with non-food credit at 11.3% in April 2022 and loans to agriculture at 10.6%. Personal loans also grew to 14.7% in April 2022. An ongoing good monsoon will also help the economy. The launch of 5G later this year will boost digital India substantially for the rest of this year and going forward.

So what do we do right? It is an innate conservatism that saves India every time. This is how we survived the crash of 2008 that hurt America enough for it to run stimulus packages at nearly $ 20 billion a month throughout the Obama presidency. In Europe, entire countries nearly went under, because they were so dependant on the same borrow-and-spend model from the Clinton era onwards. Places like Greece are still teetering on the brink.

Indian borrowing, particularly external borrowing, has always been on a tight leash. Even after the first bout of Covid, at the end of March 2021, it was at $570 billion or 21.1% of  the debt to GDP ratio. Many countries in the West owe multiples of their GDP in external debt. This is what differentiates India, even from the bankrupts in its immediate neighbourhood. India is a wonderful client for multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and IMF because we always pay back our interest and principal instalments on time.

Domestic borrowing however is high, but not alarming, as a proportion of growing GDP. It was at Rs. 95,83,366 crore, a massive 48.5 % of the debt to GDP ratio, in March 2021. Together, both external and internal debt stood at 60.5% of the debt to GDP ratio, big, but small when compared to other nations. It jumped more than 10 percentage points from the year before because of the demands of Covid management.

What about employment given our burgeoning population?  The political parties always promise jobs, but the fact is that neither government jobs or those in private industry including the medium and small industry sector (MSME) can cope with the supply of labour.

The only way forward is self-employment of various kinds, entrepreneurship, the aspiration to create jobs for others rather than seek one. All over the emerging economies and the developed world, the overall job market itself is shrinking, because of the increased use of technology, a trend that cannot be reversed competitively.

Jobless or certainly low job growth is a fresh economic reality in the 21^st century. Having said that, there is a long and by no means exhaustive list of hope.

Proliferation of agri-industry, manufacturing, services, logistics, the military, communications, infrastructure including space exploration, defence and the exploitation of its spin-offs, architecture, manufacturing in multiple spheres. Then there is the development of river transport, river linkages, flood and drought management, fisheries including cultured fisheries, animal husbandry, diamond polishing, tourism, including religious tourism, solar, wind, hydro, nuclear and other forms of energy development. All this is growing apace in India. We have at least two decades of work before it begins to satiate demand. These activities collectively will generate a lot of employment even if single units do not employ thousands.

India is moving towards global leadership uniquely via its way of thinking now appreciated because it is backed with stellar economic growth too. India’s rootedness in spirituality, its alternate global view, is proving increasingly attractive to a troubled world.

This element, of being a Vishwa Guru too will set up a considerable opportunity, diplomatically, economically, and in terms of its considerable expertise in ancient knowledge, ayurveda, astrology, yoga, music, arts, crafts. India is quite the potpourri of ancient and modern.

Our emergence onto the global stage, largely by dint of our own efforts, and our geopolitical reality of being forced to be largely aamanirbhar in terms of our security, is another potent economic pointer to the future.

Our alliances such as QUAD, I2U2, the bilateral cooperation with a large number of countries, not always friends with each other, such as Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Central Asian Republics, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Oman, Maldives, Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, The Philippines, Guyana, also promise rich economic dividends going forward.

India is emerging as an alternative economy to engage with for food, engineering, technology, design, armaments at very competitive prices compared to the chronic high wage economies of the West.

India will, with its population growing to 1.70 billion by 2070 before it begins to decline, remain the most populous country in the world for nearly 50 years and more. This means it will retain its wage competitiveness for a long time, when contrasted with shrinking and ageing population bases in many parts of the world, including China, Europe and America.

India’s excellent relations with many countries in Africa, a continent with enormous resources and high growth trajectories, will see many mutual benefits from cooperation as the time goes on.

In a sense, the Covid pandemic, and the Russian-Ukraine War following it, has put a page break on the prevailing narrative. The US century, in place from after WWII, may be drawing to a close. China’s effort at world domination may not materialise. In a multi-lateral world that is emerging, India will certainly be an important player.

(2,089 words)

August 3^rd, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee