tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4860502601991224412024-03-28T02:54:09.497-07:00GHATOTKACHSERIESIIIA strategic commentary on India from a right-of-centre perspectiveGHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.comBlogger487125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-14623560085080877982024-03-28T02:53:00.000-07:002024-03-28T02:53:23.568-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ambitious
Chinese 65 Billion CPEC Project Is In Multiple Jeopardy Quagmire <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The $ 65
billion China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC), from the restive if oppressed
Uighur Muslim majority province of Xinkiang in China, all the way to the
Pakistani/Balochi port of Gwadar, is clearly in deep jeopardy now. On top of
the obvious debt trap to China, Pakistan finds itself facing a near uncontrollable
security dilemma. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Runaway
Uighur fighters from Xinkiang, otherwise systematically oppressed by the Han
Chinese, are in some degree contributing to the terrorism in Pakistan. This
along with the Pakistani Taliban, the Baluchistan Liberation Army, sundry
terrorist groups once enthusiastically spawned by Pakistan to deliver a ‘thousand
cuts’ to India - plus their variously mutating affiliates. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Baluchis
sheltering in Iran are also contributing their mite to the unrest and
instability, with Iran reluctant to act harshly against their significant
minority population.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This
difficult situation is being aggravated daily by the economic weakness of China,
plagued by a massive property and real-estate industry collapse, massive
non-performing assets (NPAs), a low GDP growth rate, trade and diplomatic differences
with the West, as well as a host of its neighbours. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Its currency
also cannot be trusted. Its Pakistan ‘all-weather partner’ turned dire
liability, is living hand-to-mouth, as it is all but bankrupt. It not only owes
billions, under multiple heads and sources, to China, it owes equally huge sums
to the multilateral lending agencies such as the IMF and the World Bank plus
other Western and Arab lenders. Total Pakistani debt topped $ 126 billion in
2022 and has worsened since.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The
currency, the Pakistani rupee, is well on its way to becoming worthless.
Foreign currency reserves have gone. Its revenue generation, never robust, as
its economy is based on consumption and government spending, is now practically
non-existent.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
multilateral lending agencies want Pakistan to renegotiate its loans from China
before it gives it more money, but Pakistan is in no position to do so in real
terms.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This entire
situation is making the Chinese truculent and short with Pakistan, but not
really to best effect. Pakistan, as per its long-studied practice, is trying to
balance the influence of the super powers, by playing the United States off
against China to obtain a measure of leverage with both. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The US
Ambassador in Pakistan Donald Blome, no doubt at the urging of the US State
Department, visited oil, gas, and mineral rich Baluchistan, the largest
province of Pakistan, on 12<sup>th</sup> September 2023. The Chinese have been
operating in Baluchistan for long. But this visit is probably the beginning of
a brand-new US initiative. The US Charge d’affaires had visited in 2021. And
this was a long time after the visit of a previous American official, way back
in 2006. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Blome met
with Pakistani officials in Baluchistan and their Navy’s West Commander. He
also visited the port at Gwadar, run by the China Overseas Ports Holding. China
hopes to use Gwadar for transhipments, oil cargoes to itself should anything go
wrong in the South China Sea, the Malacca Straits, its access to its Pacific
ports-and exports to America. How it will drive its cargo through Pakistan to
Xinkiang <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is another matter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Pakistan, on
its part, sees Gwadar as its only port besides Karachi. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Blome was also
to see for himself that there is no Chinese military base in Gwadar as of now,
even though the security situation is highly unstable. The Pentagon, in 2022,
warned that there could be a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy base in Gwadar
before long. More so, if Pakistan capitulates any further to China.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But, first, before the US can consider fresh
investments, there are the growing insurgencies. Almost to illustrate this, the
same Pakistan Navy base Blome visited in Gwadar was also recently attacked by
Balochistan militants. The Balochis have also attacked and killed Chinese
engineers working on a dam at Dasu on the Indus river this month. This is in
the sparsely populated Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Balochi
militants routinely attack the provincial capital of Quetta, where the Chinese
ambassador recently escaped an attempt on his life. They also do not hesitate
to use human bombers in Karachi, again targeting and killing the Chinese, three
teachers as it turned out. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All this,
despite the best efforts of the Pakistan security forces. The Chinese have so
far been disallowed to bring in their own security forces onto Pakistani
territory, or indeed into Gwadar Port, other mining sites and Chinese
population concentrations in Baluchistan. But the demand is renewed every time
there is another terrorist attack on Chinese workers, officials and engineers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The economic
woes plaguing Pakistan have caused then to default on payments on power plants
and infrastructure being built by the Chinese. The Pakistanis are also demanding
a discount of $3 billion on the cost of a railway known as Main Line -1 from $
9.9 billion to $6.6 billion. All this is putting pressure on the viability of
the CPEC project, and has largely brought it to a stand-still.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
ambitious multiple roads, with industries, infrastructure projects, power
plants, railways, pipelines, are only partially completed after more than a
decade. And most don’t make any money making repayment of loans only possible via
other loans.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The CPEC <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>main road snakes through India-disputed
Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit-Baltistan, which could prove to be a
choke point should India reclaim its territory, down to the plains of Pakistan.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The largely
Shia population of PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan, like that of Baluchistan at the
other end, are deeply unhappy with rough and ready Sunni Pakistani
administration. The PoK/Gilgit -Baltistan native population that Pakistan is
trying to swamp with Sunni Muslims from the plains, would rather be part of
Jammu and Kashmir on the Indian side. They have been demonstrating to this
effect. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Once on the
plains, the CPEC carriageways run for over 3,000 km. to the deep-water port at
Gwadar. The Chinese have succeeded in building the deep water port there, but
it is still a-begging for cargo and usage, very much like their other white
elephant port at Hambantota in Sri Lanka. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At least the
Sri Lankans are not attacking the empty, if state-of-the-art port that Sri
Lanka had to cede to China on its territory. The same cannot be said for Gwadar
in Baluchistan, regularly attacked by terrorists armed with explosives,
grenades and small arms. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Baluchis
have made clear that they see no benefit from the Chinese built port for
themselves, lacking as they still are, in basics like electricity and water.
The fishing in the area has been harmed. The air is polluted with coal-based
power plants. The local population is constantly bullied by the Pakistani armed
forces. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The recent
elections in Pakistan to the Gwadar constituency in the Balochistan provincial
assembly saw Maulana Hidayat ur Rehman, leader of the Gwadar Rights Movement
elected. This will now provide an official voice to the Baluchistan activists.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif is scheduled to
visit Beijing shortly, and though he is well-experienced, will come under
pressure on various aspects of the CPEC, the progress, payments, and security
situation. However, China may well be caught between a rock and a hard place,
having already invested billions. It is unable to make fresh investments now to
keep up the pace of the project. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
geopolitical situation has also changed considerably for China, to its
detriment, particularly since the Covid pandemic, and no easy solutions present
themselves. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">China is now
recalibrating its belt and road initiative that has spanned 150 countries since
2013. It will now concentrate on smaller projects, and has spurned Pakistani
proposals for more BRI projects via direct investment on its soil.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,263
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">March 28<sup>th</sup>,
2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-23821491682798865882024-03-22T05:09:00.000-07:002024-03-22T05:09:25.166-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Why Are
So Many Young Indian Students In Their Early Twenties Dying in the US?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Why are so
many young Indian students in their early twenties dying in the US? The tally
is nine so far in the three months of 2024 alone. Is it an outbreak of racism
extended to the brown Indian student? Are they quite thoroughly unwelcome in
America? If so, why do their Indian parents send them there in droves and at
enormous expense? The expatriate Indian student community is the largest in the
US and bigger than that of the Chinese. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Normally it
is the American, Caribbean, and African black people subjected to murderous
racist attacks, if one can call such savagery normal. The Black Lives Matter
movement is a testament to the fact that rampant racism involving some
institutions and the police departments persists in America. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">To prevent
violent attacks against Indian students and other Indians, </span><a style="mso-comment-date: 20240322T1518; mso-comment-reference: "Gautam Mu_1";"></a><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 102%;"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/2bcc959e91d4ebff/Documents/Why%20are%20so%20many%20young%20Indian%20students%20in%20their%20early%20twenties%20dying%20in%20the%20US.odt#_msocom_1" id="_anchor_1" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_1">[Gautam Mu1]</a><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-special-character: comment;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">the current Biden administration is committed to provide adequate
security, both on and off campus, and in the community at large. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">But do some
Indian students put themselves in harm’s way by flouting cautionary advisories
on dangerous areas? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Four Indian
students have been done to death in a period of two weeks according to a news
report date-lined 2<sup>nd</sup> February 2024. They were 19 year old Shreyas
Reddy Benigher from the Linder School of Business, Ohio, Neil Acharya of Purdue
University, Vivek Saini from Panchkula in Haryana. The latest is Sameer Kamath,
an Indian-American pursuing his doctorate in mechanical engineering in Purdue
University again.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">In addition,
Akul Dhawan was found dead of hypothermia outside the University of Illinois
UIUC in Champaign.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">G Dinesh of
Telangana and Nikesh of Andhra Pradesh were found gassed to death in their flat
in Connecticut.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Kuchipudi
and Bharat Natyam dancer Amarnath Ghosh, age 34, was shot to death in St Louis
Missouri.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Paruchuri
Abhijit of Boston University was found dead in his car, making up the 9<sup>th</sup>
senseless death so far in 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">There is at
least one death of an Indian every day across the US says an American Community
leader Mohan Nannapaneni, founder of volunteer based non-profit organisation
TEAM Aid. These are mostly students and H-1B employees who have recently come
to America.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Are some
Indian students lonely and feeling alienated far from home? Do some of them,
unable to fit in socially or cope academically, persist in their studies there
due to societal and parental pressures emanating from back in India? Though
more often than not, Indian students who go to American universities are
exceptionally bright and are there on earned scholarships. But are they mature
and experienced enough in the Western cultural mores and milieu to avoid <a style="mso-comment-date: 20240322T1529; mso-comment-reference: "Gautam Mu_2";">bullying</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 102%;"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/2bcc959e91d4ebff/Documents/Why%20are%20so%20many%20young%20Indian%20students%20in%20their%20early%20twenties%20dying%20in%20the%20US.odt#_msocom_2" id="_anchor_2" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_2">[Gautam Mu2]</a><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-special-character: comment;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;"> and ridicule? Sometimes, there are underlying mental health issues even
amongst the gifted students which are activated by the pressures of academics
and those of fitting in. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">There are
also those who die of physical illness and natural causes. Perhaps lack of
seeking timely medical attention in an alien medical system is to blame. Again,
this is a phenomenon that affects foreign students even here in India, because
many tend to neglect themselves in the absence of relatives to keep an eye on
them.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">In January
2024, a young girl graduate student Jaahnvi Kandula was run over by a speeding
policeman Officer Kevin Dave in a police car at a street intersection crosswalk
in Seattle. To compound matters, the manslaughter caused by the police car
being driven at 119 kmph was laughed off by another Seattle Police Officer
Daniel Auderer, who said Kandula’s life had ‘limited value’. He dismissed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the proposition that officer Dave was at
fault and that a criminal investigation was necessary.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">The MEA in
India has said a total of 403 Indian students have died abroad from various
causes since 2018. The largest number of deaths occurred in Canada followed by
Britain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Several
voices in India are being raised against the necessity of sending Indian
students to study abroad. Perhaps the answer lies in sending them to better
regulated and safer places such as Singapore where the spectre of racism is
largely absent. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">It seems
that most of the White world, including Australia and New Zealand has a racist
problem, that their governments are struggling to quell. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">The lure of
obtaining lucrative jobs in Europe and America by studying and graduating from
their universities is under pressure now because of economic recession. The
fact that many American corporations already have Indians in prominent
positions or at the top is probably resented by the natives. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Unlike White
immigrants, the Indian, by dint of his or her colour does not blend in. The
Indian also tends to not assimilate into the great American or European melting
pot. Tensions are bound to result. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">The answer
may lie, at least in the medium term by setting up US <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and European university campuses in India and
West Asia. Till then, these are very real risks that Indian students and their
families must face. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">As for the
H1 B visa employees, they too must weigh their pros against their cons. Of
course, statistically, these tragic demises are not very large compared to the
masses of students and employees who go to America. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">The Indian
diaspora in the West is now in millions after all, and many have found jobs in
local, state and federal government as well as the judiciary and medicine. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Those who
are already European and American citizens must organise to maintain their
security. More so in America, a land where the first amendment allows everyone
to own and use firearms. Nothing works better than a strong response and the
perception that Indians are not timid pushovers.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">(930
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">March 22<sup>nd</sup>
2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">For
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 102%;">Gautam
Mukherjee</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
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</div>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-42587851685991408702024-03-03T01:03:00.000-08:002024-03-03T01:03:37.395-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India Is
Rebooting Into A Middle Income Economy<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The country was
startled in a good way by the announcement of 8.4% GDP growth for the third
quarter of fiscal 2024. This was till December 2023, instead of the earlier
estimated 6.5% for the same quarter. This, of course, is in the so-called ‘real
economy’ that is benefiting from multiple structural changes over the last
decade and the lack of any big ticket corruption.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Indian stock market, that has recently
overtaken that of Hong Kong with a little over $ 4 trillion in market-cap, reacted
by reaching fresh all-time highs on the Sensex and Nifty. But now, this cannot
be labelled as mere exuberance, irrational or otherwise, froth, or a bubble, as
in the past. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The number
of Indian stocks that have tripled in value terms over the last decade and are
worth $1 billion or more are 183 in number, making it No.1 for this feat. The
next two positions have the US with 157 such companies and China with just 79.
The US, of course has a $ 62 trillion worth of stock market and its biggest
companies have a market-cap bigger than the entire Indian economy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But in its
place, the Indian debt and bond market is seeing significant foreign investor
inflows, ever since it was included in the Morgan Stanley debt fund global
indices in New York. Morgan Stanley has issued bullish statements on the Indian
stock market and is overweight India. Likewise, Jefferies and a number of other
international investment houses. A number of international allocation indices
have halved percentage weightages for China, based on its economic decline and
geopolitical tensions it has engendered, and doubled those for India. This
should see sizeable investment coming in from abroad, despite so-called high
valuations in the smallcap and midcap space. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In addition,
the domestic institutional investors (DII) and the mutual fund industry has
been pouring resources into the Indian stock market, keeping the market buoyant
by buying on dips. The systematic investment programmes (SIP) into mutual funds
have seen the influx of lakhs of retail investors and sizeable collective funds.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The foreign
institutional investors (FII) who controlled 60% of the Indian stock market
activity in 2016, now account for 40% of the larger market-cap, and cannot take
the market up or down at will anymore.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India is
rapidly turning into an ‘asset class’ on its own in the opinion of investment
gurus, fuelled by growth figures of 15% per annum or more in a large number of
private sector and now public sector companies too.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is little
wonder that John Thomas Chambers, the former CEO of Cisco Systems, one of the
greatest successes of the internet era, thinks that India will have the largest
economy in the world by 2047. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Chambers
expects an accelerated partnership between the US and India to make this happen,
along with taking artificial intelligence (AI) into the mainstream. Chambers also
thinks Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the greatest leader in the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The year FY 24 is now estimated to end with
7.5% GDP growth. This augurs well for the period after the general elections
2024, which the NDA is expected to win with a majority, because more bold
economic reforms can be effected soon thereafter. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This
continuity and expected stability of governance is another highly favourable
factor for the increased thrust towards manufacturing including <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>those of the high value electronic chips.
Three ventures are in the works, and several more are likely. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The rapid
development of infrastructure has already reduced bottlenecks and a proportion
of the logistical costs from a high of 14% towards a low of 8%. The China plus
one initiative has gained ground with renowned manufacturers like Apple. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India’s thrust
on Make in India in defence manufacturing is bearing tangible fruit in a number
of areas such as fighter jets, light tanks, armoured carriers, bailey bridges,
radar, missiles, helicopters, military transport aircraft, bullet proof vests,
howitzers, rifles, ammunition and so on. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Agriculture
is in need of substantial reform but still has created a food surplus along
with substantial exports of rice and other commodities to West Asia and beyond.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Exports in
general, from manufactured and value added goods to services have vastly
increased and are on a sharp upward trajectory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Arvind
Panagariya, the University of Columbia professor from New York, who was Vice
Chairman of the Niti Aayog earlier, and has recently taken on the mantle of
Chairman of the Finance Commission (that decides which state gets how much out
of central collections and resources), and Vice Chancellor of the rebuilt
Nalanda University, is ahead of the curve. While most analysts expect about 7%
growth in GDP for several years going forward, Panagariya sees a potential to
achieve 10% GDP growth per annum year-on-year. This is the coveted double-digit
growth that took China to No.2 in the world, albeit over a much longer period
based, not on a roaring domestic economy, despite a formidable manufacturing
capacity, but exports to the West. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Eminent
economists Surjit Bhalla and Arvind Virmani are calling India a middle-income
economy now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India, at
just about $ 4 trillon in GDP, is already poised to become the 3<sup>rd</sup>
largest by 2030, just six years away. This, particularly with Germany, Japan,
as well as several other European economies, slipping into recession.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India’s
indirect tax, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, a barometer of a
growing legitimate economy, also rose 12.5% <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>year-on-year to 1.68 lakh crores in February
2024 for transactions conducted in January. The average monthly gross
collection for FY 24 is steady at Rs. 1.67 lakh crores. As of February 2024 the
total gross GST collection stood at Rs. 18.40 lakh crores, 11.7% higher than the
corresponding period in 2023. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Going
forward, GST collections of 1.7 lakh crores per month is likely to become the
minimum if it doesn’t go higher. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This
increase in taxes is likely to cushion, if not obviate any impact on the fiscal
deficit from higher nominal growth rates as they come. Direct taxes similarly
are seeing a noticeable increase too.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As of
January 2024 the government has clocked up only 63.6% of its fiscal deficit
target or 11.02 lakh crores in absolute terms. This leaves enough elbow room
for the remaining two months of the fiscal year 2024. GDP at current prices in
FY 24 is estimated to reach Rs. 293.90 lakh crores, up from Rs. 269.50 Lakh
crores in FY 23. It is therefore clear, that the slow-down in the economy
occasioned by Covid is now over.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As for those,
like the Communists and sections of the opposition, who like to think that the
rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer, there was other news.
The percentage of people in absolute poverty amongst India’s 1.4 billion plus
people declined to just 5% of the population. We are now within striking
distance of abolishing absolute poverty. And the growth is becoming more and
more inclusive of all sections of the population. At the prevailing growth
rates let alone the double digit ones, the per capita income will also rise
into multiples of what it is today and become more evenly spread.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Another news
item stated that rural consumption figures have nearly caught up to urban ones.
People there were now spending much more on non-essentials, lifestyle and so
on. This is not surprising because of rising aspirations. The impact of not
only greater disposable income, but the reach of satellite TV, social media on
the internet, and the fact that over half of the billion plus <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>smart phones are owned by citizens from the
rural areas and the tier two/ three, tier four towns now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Barring
impactful Black Swan events in a volatile geopolitical scenario, India is
poised to make its Amrit Kaal period to its centenary in 2047, a truly
transformative one. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,300
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">March 3<sup>rd</sup>
2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-81483026982983549172024-02-28T04:00:00.000-08:002024-02-28T04:00:54.837-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Anant
Ambani Creates Vantara An Animal Sanctuary And Hospital In Jamnagar<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Vantara or
Star of the Forest, the spectacular new Ambani initiative, is inspired by the
Sanatan Dharma concept of <i>Jeev Seva</i>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anant Ambani, its sponsor and prime mover,
says there are specific animals associated with every deity in Sanatana Dharma,
and all <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>creatures, great and small, are
precious in Hinduism. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Family patriarch Mukesh Ambani’s own deep and
abiding interest in wild life and visiting sanctuaries in India and abroad with
his family over the years, has sparked a grand new philanthropic project. That
it is of of world class proportions is all the better, given the aspirations of
the New India.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Vantara is Anant
Ambani’s passion project, springing from a deep empathy for injured and abused
animals. Anant is also a Director of Reliance Industries, his main day job. He
is the younger son of Mukesh and Nita Ambani. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Anant also
heads the Reliance Renewable Energy Project in Jamnagar designed to make
Reliance Industries, heavily invested in petro-chemical refining and
production, Net Zero Carbon by 2035.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Like other
leading business groups such as Tata and Birla, Reliance has an increasing
number of initiatives in the public space now. Other public initiatives include
the running of an IPL cricket team, schools, hospitals, a spectacular centre
for the arts and crafts, major sponsorship of temples and their betterment. Most
of these activities are helmed by Chairman Mukesh Ambani, his wife Nita Ambani,
their other two children and their growing families, who, like Anant, are
prominent in the direction of Reliance Foundation as well. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Ambanis
have also created the world’s largest mango plantation in Jamnagar, a once
semi-arid area in a backward part of Gujarat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This latest
initiative that is receiving global attention, is the brain child of Anant
Ambani, who is also shortly getting married in Jamnagar. He prefers to live
there these days, where he attends to Vantara and a plethora of other Reliance
assignments. His bride to be, Radhika Merchant, is also keenly interested in
the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Vantara project now. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Currently,
Vantara is a sanctuary for over 200 injured elephants and other animal species
such as leopards, rhinos and crocodiles. It will eventually breed <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>global endangered animal species to be
released into the wild. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The project
began on the ground in 2010, says Anant, with a 600 acre habitat for rescued
elephants. It was started with special planting to replicate a space specially
for the rescued pachyderms. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Later, a massive
international quality elephant hospital, fully staffed with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>specialists, including 50 expatriates, was
built. It specialises in surgery, healing therapies, and rehabilitation. It has
state-of-the art surgical equipment, robotic surgery facilities, giant
hydraulic 7 ton lift platforms to raise the pachyderms. Anant visited over 30
ICU facilities abroad to formulate his ideas. The elephant hospital is equipped
with portable x-ray and laser machines, a pharmacy, a pathology laboratory, a
hyperbaric oxygen chamber. It provides Multani-mitti and hot oil massages.
There are state of the art elephant shelters in the near area, day and night
enclosures, hydrotherapy pools, a large elephant jacuzzi for arthritis
treatment. There is a 500 strong team of veterinarians, nutritionists,
pathologists, biologists, physio-therapists.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition, there is a separate hospital for
the smaller animals, similarly equipped with an ICU, MRI, CT Scan, X-ray,
ultrasound, endoscopy, dental scalars, lithotripsy, dialysis and OR1 technology.
So far, there are 1,000 crocodiles, and 2,000 animals across 43 species
inclusive of felines, herbivores and reptiles. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Both
hospitals could become important academic and research facilities for animal
ailments, bio diversity, conservation, rehabilitation. Vantara expects to
collaborate with International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), The World
Wildlife Fund (WWF), and others. It already works in close coordination with
the Forest and Wildlife Departments of Gujarat, various Indian zoos and sanctuaries,
and the entire forestry and wildlife universe in India. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The area
dedicated to Vantara is 3,000 acres that could go up to 4,000 acres and incorporate
a zoological park for visitors in due course. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Vantara is near
the mostly Nita Ambani supervised and built city for Reliance employees. In the
rural environs of Jamnagar, a dozen new temples have also been built in the
surrounding villages recently, in a region famous for its old temples.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Jamnagar, as
the site of the now green-belt Ambani petro-chemical empire, was started by the
Ambani visionary and founder Dhirubhai Ambani. He grew up himself some 215 km
away in the coastal village of Chorwad, his humble ancestral <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>home renovated and recently turned into a
museum by son Mukesh. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Jamnagar and
its facilities and installations have been vastly expanded by Mukesh Ambani. It
hosts the Reliance crude oil refinery, the biggest and reportedly the most
modern in the world, and other Reliance owned petro-chemical complexes. There
are also state of the art shipping export infrastructure in the nearby port. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Anant’s
passion project Vantara gained further momentum during the Covid years, he
says, when a new non-profit trust was born. Vantara is closed to visitors for
the benefit of the rescued animals brought here, and of course, the wildlife
and bio-diversity conservation research it engenders. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Vantara provides
direct and indirect employment to over 10,000 people who grow the food for the elephants,
cook for all the injured animals, feed them, heal them with allopathic and
ayurvedic medicines and other therapies, befriend the abused animals, and keep
them secure from any threats.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In time
Vantara and its expertise aims to improve all the 150 plus animal sanctuaries
and zoos in India in terms of training, capacity building, and animal care
infrastructure. One day soon, with multiple international cooperation already
in the works, Vantara could lead the world in its unique Sanatani <i>Jeev Seva </i>space.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(933 words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">February
28<sup>th</sup>, 2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-22744489969197085422024-02-21T01:28:00.000-08:002024-02-21T01:28:09.344-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Minimum
Support Prices Have Outlived Their Utility<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Even as the
government has called for a fifth round of talks, and the farmer protestors are
bent on resuming their push to Delhi, the Minimum Support Price (MSP), remains
the central issue.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MSP was introduced at the time of the Green
Revolution in the 1960s. It was in order to spur on the efforts of farmers in
Punjab, parts of Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh, specifically chosen for the
purpose, because their lands were already well irrigated. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India’s food
situation was in dire straits at the time, and the country was dependent on
America providing wheat, rice, milk powder and the like under their PL-480 food
aid programme. Since then, India has come a long way, despite a quadrupling of
its population from 1947. It is not only food surplus now but is the world’s
biggest exporter of rice among other things.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Over the
years, it is farmers from these three states, some 6% of the total, numerically,
ruled by a miniscule rich farmer nexus, that have been the principal
beneficiaries of MSP. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is this
collection of farmers, that is now demanding even more benefits beyond the
existing MSP, free water, electricity, nil taxation, regular increases in MSP
rates, and other subsidies and grants from the government. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of course,
the world over, farming is a highly subsidised business, but in the developed
countries there has been massive collectivisation of land holdings,
mechanisation, modern scientific methods to produce high yields, and some 1-4%
of their much smaller populations produce all the food for consumption and
export. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In India, by
way of depressing contrast, over 50% of the population, some 70 crore people,
are engaged in agriculture, and still only contribute some 12-14% to the GDP.
It is a highly inefficient sector even 75 years after independence. It is also
very difficult politically to reform agriculture and push a majority of the
rural population into urban areas for other, more gainful occupations.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The bulk of
the crop purchased by the government under MSP still constitute wheat and paddy
from semi-arid Punjab and environs. It still uses scarce canal and ground water
as it did in the 1960s. Even though there are much better rain-fed areas that
grow a surplus of both wheat and paddy today but the Punjab farmers want to
corner most of the MSP.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This
procurement is, in turn, used to service the public distribution system (PDS)
for rations to poorer consumers at subsidised prices, as well as free rations
to millions of the poorest. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The rest of
these ‘cereal’ crops, if any is left over year to year, after the spoilage from
exposure to the elements and rodents,(because of inadequate government storage facilities),
is sold in the open market. It is sometimes exported too, particularly rice and
wheat. Some of it is retained, as buffer food stocks. Other items like onions,
produced mainly in Maharashtra, are also exported. Fruit exports include
mangoes. Indian goats are much in demand in West Asia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The debate
on MSP has hotted up once again with a plethora of opinions being offered by a
wide selection of people. The ongoing farmer agitation, led by those from
Punjab, is picking up where the last episode left off two years ago. In the
last encounter, the agitators, led by vested interests determined to maintain
the status quo, refused to allow three farm laws from being implemented. These
were designed to reform the sector to benefit the vast majority of
agriculturists and increase farm income across the board. Emboldened by that
success, the same elements are back with a long list of audacious demands.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">These include
pensions for some 50% of the Indian population engaged in this low output agriculture
from the age of 60 and beyond. They are also asking for comprehensive farmer debt
waivers. There is also a bizarre demand that India must walk out of the World
Trade Organisation (WTO). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The MSP
being asked for now must come with a legal guarantee. It is also a much more
expensive MSP. The new demand is for implementation of an unrealistic pricing
formula, based on suggestions made by the late Dr. MS Swaminathan, the father
of the Indian Green Revolution. If implemented, the new MSP would shoot up the
retail food prices by an estimated 30%. However, the government is keen to
negotiate a veering away from the cultivation of wheat and paddy in Punjab.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
government is in no position to agree to raised MSP for wheat and paddy from
Punjab with guaranteed offtake of all that the state can produce. If they do
anything like that most other development initiatives will suffer great harm,
inflation would run amuck, the fiscal deficit would soar. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It can
however buy other crops at MSP in order to encourage a badly needed
diversification. It will take time to ramp up in volume terms and may actually strengthen
the economy. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Wheat and
paddy at high MSP on the other hand, would land India into an internal debt
trap worse than what the Chinese have imposed on various countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Since MSP
has been retained as a political hot potato ever since it was introduced, it is
time for it to do some good in terms of present day requirements. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Early
efforts of the government to try and bring about a shift in MSP covered crops
from just paddy and wheat towards pulses, maize and cotton have been swiftly
rejected by the farmer unions, overwhelmingly from Punjab. But the government
wants to enter into a fresh round of talks to nudge this objective forward. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The farm
unions from Punjab bent on their wheat and paddy seem unconcerned about the
imminent desertification of their state with the water table having gone down
by over 25 meters already. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Trojan
Horse of 22 or 23 crop items on the protestor list does not reveal that nearly
70% of the MSP is expended on the procurement of just paddy and wheat from the
original Green Revolution belt plus Madhya Pradesh now. This needs to change in
favour of some of the other 21 crops on the list and procurement from several
other states in addition. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Unfortunately,
the government’s procurement system has failed to energise the cultivation of
pulses so far. These are imported to make up for the shortfall in these staples,
in three types of commonly consumed dal. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Indian government also imports copious
quantities of palm oil for example, and could save a lot of foreign exchange if
it could catalyse higher Indian production.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A number of
hypothetical calculations on the impact of the various demands are doing the
rounds. The MSP as it exists have given rise to several market price
distortions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In some
cases, and some crops, the market prices have been higher, implying that the
small farmer, for example, may prefer to sell outside of the government
procurement system. Likewise, some of the rich agitators too, if they agree to
grow anything beyond wheat and paddy. In other instances, MSP is higher than
prevailing market prices, involving a government procurement outgo if all the
output is to be mopped up. But naturally, prices cannot be static, both
domestically and internationally from season to season, year to year.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the end,
and under the circumstances, with the MSP historical precedents in situ, the
government is on the right track to use this agitation as an opportunity to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>try and incentivise reform. The agitators in
turn must realise that their room to force their point of view on the
government is actually quite limited.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,255
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">February
21<sup>st</sup>, 2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-83822685466627517772024-02-13T01:06:00.000-08:002024-02-13T01:06:58.830-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A Witch’s Brew: </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></b><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">I.N.D.I. Opposition, Congress, AAP, SP, Canada-backed
Khalistanis, Pakistani ISI, Islamic Jihadis, Chinese & Soros Money, Maoists,
NE Separatists, Leftist International Media, All Fuel Punjab Farmer Bosses in
Farmer Agitation 2.0<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The I.N.D.I
opposition is in tatters with entire parties and prominent individual leaders deserting
it frequently. Rahul Gandhi’s East-West Bharat Nyaya Yatra <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>is a damp squib. Other efforts from the DMK in
Chennai and the Congress in Karnataka, both seeking to promote poisonous and
divisive agendas, have also failed to gain any traction. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile,
the ruling combine has been notching up one success over another, and is poised
to win the 2024 elections with a larger majority than in 2019. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But here comes a significant and emotive disruptor.
In utter violation of democratic norms of measured negotiation, Supreme Court
directives against demonstrators blocking highways, imposition of Section 144,
the Punjab Farmer bosses are about to lay siege to Delhi once again. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is
flying in the face of three union ministers, Piyush Goyal, Arjun Munda and
Nityanand Rai, camped in Chandigarh, engaged in negotiations with the farmer
unions. They have already agreed to the MSP demands but have not got around to
the rest. The agitators seem keen on a confrontation rather than negotiated
settlements.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Predictably,
so far, all attempts have failed to avert the march on Delhi, further Bharat
Bandhs and threats of violence. Meanwhile, hordes of turbanned Sikhs have
arrived at the barricaded Shambhu border already, and the police are busy
dispersing them with tear gas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ostensibly,
this time, the government is determined to end this agitation at the earliest.
It has readied a stadium to act as a temporary detention centre for any
protestors that do get in to Delhi. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
agitation named ‘Delhi Chalo’ is a march composed of people of dubious
provenance that claim to represent India’s farmers. They <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>are apparently Punjabi Sikhs in turbans laying
a bogus claim to representing all. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Some, from
the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, held a televised press conference on the 13<sup>th</sup>
of February, and exhorted other farmer and other groups/ unions affiliated with
the BJP to join their agitation. This clearly indicates they are supported by anti-government
forces. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">They are
converging on Delhi with over 1,000 tractors and trolleys, some reports say
2,500, with enough provisions and rations to settle in for six months. The
financing for such substantial mobilisation and elaborate <i>bandobast</i>, has
come in, most like from the anti-Modi government forces, both in the country,
and from abroad. It is absolutely <i>déjà vu. </i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Will the
central government end up conceding the points raised by the protestors once
again? Yes, if the infamous roll back of the Farm Laws is anything to go by. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That controversial,
politically calculated capitulation of two years ago, may have emboldened this
mobilisation in February 2024. The timing is shortly before the Model Code of
Conduct imposed by the Election Commission (EC), goes into force. This could
happen by March. After that no major initiatives will be permitted. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But still, these agitators plan to dig in for
six months.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Delhi
Police has sealed all the main routes into Delhi with barricades and other
elaborate fortifications. But this will disrupt other legitimate traffic, trade
and supplies causing heavy losses, like the last time. Some protestors can get
in by the lesser routes too.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The assembling
of apparently over a 100 farmer unions, some reports speak of 200 unions, from
Punjab, supported, allegedly by an equal number of labour unions, have suddenly
sprung up. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Each of these unions however
must necessarily be quite small. This prompted the government ministers to
question their representativeness, before going on to discuss their demands.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is not
an all India stir by any means, and is principally centred <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in Punjab. There are no people purporting to
be farmers from other states at all, except some opposition led elements from
Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh who may turn up like last time, as this goes
on. This is trying to grow into a replica agitation of the one to protest the
three Farm Laws two years ago. The laws were rolled back by the central
government under immense pressure. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Ostensibly,
this agitation is to demand guaranteed Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for a large
number of crops, farmer and farm labour pensions, debt waivers, compensation
for those killed in the clashes of the last farmer agitation at Lakhimpur
Kheri, possibly a ban on privatisation of farming if it is being contemplated,
other lesser demands. The fiscal impact of conceding all these demands could be
considerable and impact the GDP growth projections.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The entire
crowd so far seems to consist of Punjabi Sikhs. Punjab is ruled by the
opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is supporting the agitation. Is this
then merely a political stir encouraged by the AAP? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The AAP is embroiled
in a liquor Scam and multiple other corruption? Several of their ministers are
in jail including the Delhi deputy chief minister. Chief Minister Kejriwal has
been dodging summonses from the Enforcement Directorate (ED). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Congress
Party, in competition with the AAP in Punjab for the forthcoming Lok Sabha
elections, is also offering a degree of support to the Delhi Chalo agitation,
motivated perhaps by the pressure that is being applied on the central government.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The BJP, and
even the Akali Dal that may be thinking on rejoining the NDA, have little
electoral possibilities in Punjab. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In Haryana
and Uttar Pradesh however, BJP is in a strong position. So, the central
government has no great reason to cave in to these gun-to-the-head tactics. Of
course, the public relations fallout of a renewed and prolonged farmer
agitation is a relevant political factor.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Given the
prominence of the Punjab Sikhs in this stir, most probably financed and
supported by a bouquet of anti-NDA forces, the question arises, are they the only
farmers in India? Why are they routinely pampered ever since the Green
Revolution engineered by MS Swaminathan, even though many other states have
become major agricultural contributors since. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
anti-India forces that could be behind this stir include Canada based
Khalistanis, drug dealers and underworld forces from Punjab and Canada, the
Pakistani ISI and their Islamic jihadist assets in the country, Chinese moles
in-country, Maoists, some North East separatists, Chinese money and arms, the
Congress Party, The Samajwadi Party, George Soros and his money, Kashmiri
separatists abroad, the foreign leftist media such as <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Washington Post, New York Times, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Guardian, Economist, the BBC, Time,
Newsweek, Al Jazira, some academics in America, parts of the OIC and Turkey. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As one can
see, the list is quite long, and not necessarily exhaustive. Many of these
people think the prospect of a third consecutive term for Prime Minister
Narendra Modi and the Hindu nationalist NDA is a threat to their world view,
particularly with India’s current buoyant economic prospects. Strategically, a
weaker central government in India would make it more biddable for the Western
forces and China alike. These apparently agricultural agitators at Delhi’s
borders, are regarded as convenient cat’s paws by such forces.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,110
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">February
13<sup>th</sup>, 2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-48463908452661311032024-02-01T02:18:00.000-08:002024-02-01T02:18:16.791-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Interim
Budget 2024 Stresses Growth, Reduction of Fiscal Deficit & Inflation<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">No, Finance
Minister Nirmala Sitharaman did not runaway with the ball. This, for an interim
budget and vote-on-account with its constraints and conventions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Sounding,
for all the world, like she was presenting the Economic Survey, not done this
year because of the impending general elections, she slipped in as much self-advertisement
for the government as she could, that would not attract special notice or
criticism. Everybody kept their remarks short, from Sitharaman to the prime
minister. Many other government big wigs didn’t speak on the interim budget at
all, leaving it to the denizens enjoying the CII lounge.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Still, like
a good shepherd, the government, acutely aware it has the fastest growing
economy in the world now, intends to keep it safe, with all its gains intact.
It also aims to keep all its emphases and thrust areas on course and has upped
the ante slightly in all of them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There is an
effort to broad-base the growth drivers to various other parts of the economy
such as dairy farmers, fisheries, housing, 600 crores more for the hydrogen
mission, 8,500 crores more to Solar, more aviation and aeroplane orders, more
airports. This, in addition to the infrastructure main thrust areas of
connectivity, roads, railways, bridges, metros, ports. Include therefore the
people-friendly many yojanas, with several mentions of Nari Shakti with
attendant incentivisation. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The BJP must
be surveying the reception to such yojanas for efficacy -but for the media-reading
public, much of it appears like a propagandist jamboree that somehow delivers
more BJP votes. Playing it close to the chest is practically DNA to the top
brass.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There is now
a general call for greater private sector participation in various areas to introduce
competitiveness, efficiency, design, style. But, apart from Adani, Ambani and
Tata, we cannot be sure whether they will attend. Congress will carp on crony
capitalism, but why don’t they get one of their own to come forward. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>DLF, anyone?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The habit in
the private sector, is to ask for interest reduction and other concessions, never
mind what it does to the budget deficit. They could miss the bus of course,
with the <i>sarkar</i> continuously doing all the heavy-lifting. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But, as
Nadir Godrej said, the private sector will first build additional capacity, if
required, in whatever they are involved in. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Unsaid is the fact that the last time the
private sector went into infrastructure, the projects were stuck for funding,
as were their bills. But this was when their favourite ideological UPA
government was in-charge, corrupt but ruling, and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>well before Modi Raj began in 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Development of
Lakshadweep has found mention here for both tourism and strategic reasons, this
prominently, for the first time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Manufacturing,
slated to grow into another 5% of GDP, will get a basic, enabling thrust, with
a large, Rs. 1 lakh crores for research and development (R&D), for the
first time. Repayable in 50 years, making it practically a grant. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">With
automobiles accounting for about 50% of manufacturing in India, this R&D
funding could come in handy for the development of components and other items
in the value chain both for industry consumption and export. Companies like
Volvo, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Toyota, Suzuki, Hyundai, which are ensconced in automobile
manufacturing and assembly in India, need to be further encouraged to become
global hubs operating out of India. Will the government take Arvind Panagariya’s
advice in July, and lower tariffs at least in line with the ASEAN countries? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The overall
logistic costs are to be brought down from 14% to about 8% with the ongoing
efforts of this government on road, rail, air, port infrastructure. This is
commendable, dramatic, because it is now credible, and will have profound
consequences on the confidence generated amongst foreign investors in India-based
manufacture and export. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The stress
on government capex continues, will another Rs. 11.1 lakh crores allocated.This
was the biggest announcement, and is indeed less than the 13 lakh crores it
would have been, if the momentum of the present fiscal was to be maintained into
2024-25. However, the sector accounts for almost 4% of GDP now, and is the main
growth driver. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
government is cutting its market borrowing programme in fiscal 2024-25 to reduce
its debts, as the private sector investment increases, compared to before. This
indicates greater confidence in the economy. Some of the government’s friends,
big boys all, are not afraid.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile
the government’s fiscal deficit, at 5.9%, is to be reduced to 5.1% in 2024-25, <i>en
route</i> to meeting the target of 4.5% in <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>FY 2025-26. Will this mount 5.1% lead to
interest rate cuts? RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, most likely, will not react
to intentions, and wait for the attainment of 5.1% first. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All changes
in direct and indirect taxes remain untouched for now, but the implication is
that there may be some benefits announced in the full budget of July 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prominent
mention of rooftop solar for one crore households to generate 300 units of free
electricity, with connectivity to sell overages, has enthused the energy stocks
such as IREDA, Websol Energy, Suzlon Energy and Sterling and Wilson. However,
this initiative may do better in the countryside and new construction in
smaller towns and cities. The technology associated with solar panels also
needs to evolve.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Likewise
Electric vehicle (EV) stocks rallied on the reiteration of adoption of EV in
public transport. India is also working hard on green hydrogen technologies as
an alternative to EVs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Interestingly,
divestment targets, after the success of returning Air India to the Tatas, have
actually been reduced. There are more important things for the government to
concentrate on, with a dramatic turnaround in many PSU stocks connected with <i>aatmanirbhar</i>
initiatives and defence manufacturing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The middle
class will be helped to build their own houses or purchase their dwellings. But
there is no indication that the government intends to ramp up the real estate
sector in general, despite its potential of becoming a massive employer of
skilled and unskilled jobs, if it goes up from the $ 120 billion at present to
$ 1 trillion by 2030. Millions of people, men and women, from the rural surplus
could be absorbed, apart from those who go into management, sales and so on. It
would need incentives, loans, industry status.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Small disputed
income tax demands, some going back to 1962, and subject of much contention,
have been withdrawn for up to Rs. 25,000 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>till FY 2009-10 and Rs. 10,000 up to FY
2014-15. This is a welcome thing, but a curious and somewhat trivial item to
introduce here.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Defence
stocks, Railway stocks, declined somewhat, probably not excited by the
steadiness of gait. Where are the huge bump-ups in expenditure? However, the
announcements showed that investments are slightly enhanced and are continuing.
Railways will get more trains. Defence manufacturing gets more money, the
budget upped by 4.4 %.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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class housing, and all this has been well received. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The large-scale induction of the female
population into the work force could add 1 to 1.5% to the GDP. Can this be
achieved in the period 2024-2029?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,184
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">February
1<sup>st</sup>, 2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For;
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-26270203627628882432024-01-30T01:35:00.000-08:002024-01-30T01:35:45.502-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Interim Budget
2024 Can Afford To Be Bold<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is capital
expenditure from the government (capex), that has fuelled the stellar growth
over the last ten years. This, despite Covid, that marred the benefits of a cut
in corporate taxes briefly, and the wobble making pressures of inimical global
winds. But now, the possibility of further reduced taxes for new manufacturing
entities of about 15% in interim budget 2024 is likely to give a boost to those
relocating in whole or in part from China, plus others. There are also the
generous <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">PLI schemes
that are attracting high investment manufacturing such as semiconductor micro
and computer chips. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav says the first semiconductor
microchips, made in India at Gujarat by US major Micron, at an investment of $
825 million, will roll out in December 2024.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The defence
sector <i>aatmanirbhar</i> programme is going from strength to strength,
fuelling the rapid rise of various PSU and private sector stocks associated
with it. The US, France and Israel have become major collaborators, even as
good relations and connections continue with Russia. Israel has put in the
anti-drone system to protect the grand temple at Ayodhya for example. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The success
of the Indo-Russian Brahmos missiles in all their variety for land, sea,
undersea and air use have put India’s defence/offence preparedness on a solid
footing and have earned the admiration and commercial interest of a host of
countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Indian
stock market itself has reached 4<sup>th</sup> place globally, having overtaken
Hong Kong. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Social welfare
for the poor and marginalised, incentives for the informal and MSME sector, are
<i>de rigeur</i> in an election year budget, and they will definitely feature
prominently. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is the
prospect of a further 20 percent enhancement in capex in 2024, up from 35% this
fiscal, on the productive side, that will lubricate Modi’s <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>consecutive term-two to segue seamlessly into
an almost surefire growth inducing term-three.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prospects of
7 per cent GDP growth are being asserted now, up from anywhere between 6.3 to
6.5 per cent earlier, citing global headwinds, not only for 2024-25 but onwards,
for the seven years to 2030. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India is
widely expected to have a GDP of $ 7 trillion by 2030, according to its own
government report just released, with $ 5 trillion coming on by 2027. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The RBI is
wary of inflation, which has cooled, but is still, at 5.9%, well away from the
target of 4.5%, and this will prevent interest rate cuts for some period.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There are
strong possibilities of manufacturing and exports both growing by 5 percentage
points by 2030 according to a recent Goldman Sachs report. This would mean a
doubling for both volume and quantum figures of exports and manufacturing from
those of 2021. And, of course, an enhanced share of the GDP for both. This will
offer significant job opportunities to trained manpower as the China plus one
story propels these sectors forward. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Automobile
and Smartphone manufacturing are<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>great Indian
successes already with excellent growth prospects. Samsung not only proposes to
catch up with Apple sales in India and export, but will also start making
laptops in Noida shortly. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The electronics
industry has grown to Rs. 830,000 crores and exports have crossed 200,000
crores. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Many are
anticipating a strong fillip given to affordable housing, including easier
financing, and enhanced tax incentives on home loan interest and release of
government owned land for the purpose. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is
understandable in an election year, but the potential exists to do much more
than help the relatively poor own their own pucca homes with amenities and
facilities at hand. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
residential and commercial real estate sector as a whole, presently at $ 120
billion according to Statista, aims to be at $ 1 trillion by 2030, and account
for 13 per cent of the enhanced GDP. This is one sector that has been absorbing
the migrants from rural India for decades and provides employment to millions of
unskilled and skilled people of both sexes. While our <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>real-time statistical collection is much
behind our adoption of digital means in other areas, it would be useful to know
how many people work in construction when it is booming.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Pushed hard,
as is being projected by the real estate sector, perhaps inclusive of industry
status, financing, tax incentives, and its attendant benefits, this <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>segment of the economy, can certainly be a
major employer, moderniser and growth driver towards overall development.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of course,
infrastructure, the other adjunct to huge economic generation, now has come to
mean super roads and highways with hotels, motels, other supportive
infrastructure, railways, including multiple freight corridors, rolling stock,
track, wheel and digital signalling equipment manufacture, tunnels, bridges,
high-speed trains, bullet trains, rapid transport linkages, complete train-set
manufacture, electrification, expansion into areas and territories not
previously served, a great expansion of the metro system in multiple cities,
ports including transshipment ports, airports, revamping of airports and
railway stations. All this has been steadily increasing avenues of employment,
and will continue to do so in tandem with GDP growth. The NHAI is now
constantly recruiting people. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The real
estate and infrastructure sector is also a great buyer of mechanisation, heavy
equipment, earth movers, bull dozers, graders, consumables and the like.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The more
efficient taxation system under GST and direct taxes is increasingly providing
investible development and sustenance funds for the centre and the states. Most
of the leakages have been plugged. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Former RBI Governor
Duvvuri Subbarao has cited ‘jobs and inequality’ as the Modi government’s
biggest failures. Youth unemployment he writes is as high as 40%. If only all
those gone into services, growing tourism, part-time employment, the great
unknown of the informal sector, were statistically captured, this kind of
alarmism would not exist. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In line with
the accusations of the Left-Liberal analysts, Subbarao cites ‘jobless growth’,
a basic oxymoron, because growth needs legs to stand on. But even if this slur goes
unchallenged for the sake of argument, Subbarao goes on to expand by <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>criticising the ‘quality of growth’ as opposed
to ‘quantum of growth’. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I can’t think of
one thing Subbarao suggested while in the saddle that threw light on this
distinction. Let alone now.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">While one
can argue with this overall perspective, as the shibboleths associated with a
socialist mindset, that is probably hinting at the creation of millions of
government jobs, however inefficient that has proved to be in the past. This
may be thought of as a popular panacea, but is akin to having five people
change a light bulb, never mind the waste of talent. Another of his criticisms is
however undeniable.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Subbarao
says female labour force participation (GLPR), ‘presents a distressing picture’.
He is right, but is it only the government’s fault that only 28% of women
participate in the workforce, and this soon reduces to 8% as many drop-out? The
potential for harnessing the female work force better, as in China, could add
another 1 to 1.5 % to the GDP. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Is this
therefore also a societal and patriarchal problem that will need time, even as
women today are prominent, albeit in small numbers, in almost every field of endeavour,
both high and low.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Arvind
Panagariya, Professor at Columbia University and also currently India’s Chairperson
of the Finance Commission, is, in a way at the other end of the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>economic thought spectrum from Subbarao. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He has
consistently advocated a lowering or elimination of tariff barriers right from
his time as the Vice Chairman of Niti Udyog and even before. He argues <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that the Indian automobile industry has only
grown behind a government imposed tariff wall, and could do much better for
itself and the customer if this were to be removed, or reduced to the level of
the ASEAN countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He disagrees
with the increasing protectionism since 2014, and says no country can grow at 8
to 10 per cent without free trade. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But
then, does the US, the EU, the UK or China practice free trade? They certainly
do not. In some ways <i>laissez faire</i> free trade is an imperialist notion
that suits only the imperial power.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Panagariya
is perhaps being a little theoretical, though the thrust of his argument is
well meant. It is to be expected from an academic. Would this sort of policy
enhance job creation at the same time or lead to Indian business and industry
as well as its agriculture sector being overwhelmed by dumping and other
aggressive trade practices?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Maserati
sold 103 of its super cars in India at a price of over Rs. 4 crores each in
2023 India, despite very high import taxes. It too asks for lower duties and
better infrastructure to sell even more. There is, it appears, no shortage of
money at the top in India, as in the developed countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a country
with such a large population however, where a good quarter of the people to
forty percent are undeniably poor, targeted welfarism without leaks is
mandatory. This includes development of facilities such as rural roads,
provision of gas, electricity and water connections, free rations when
unemployment strikes, healthcare, education, digital connectivity, and also a
measure of subsidy and pure give-aways. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Modi
government has been mindful however to push growth at the same time, and address,
at least partially, the needs of the other sixty per cent of the population,
including the movers and shakers at the top. This, no doubt, as the crucial
balancing act, of neither being abject socialists, nor heartless capitalists,
will continue in the interim budget 2024. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,575
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">January 30<sup>th</sup>,
2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For;
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-1134692070557940922024-01-23T04:26:00.000-08:002024-01-23T06:03:28.197-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The Establishment Of A New
India Over A Transformational Decade Starting 2014<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Significant beginnings often
go unnoticed. Sometimes they are celebrated with little appreciation of their
longer-term significance. The unanticipated surprise that is part of their DNA,
is buried deep and may not be apparent at first. Later, when the changes it
brings about burst all around us, we cannot take credit for any prescience. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">However, more and more over
the last decade, we have grown aware of the unusual and extraordinary vision of
Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the board. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">After expecting nothing but
unfulfilled promises and general sluggishness from Indian government
initiatives, with the unspoken question: why couldn’t India, with all its
innate advantages, perform as well as most of the ASEAN countries? Why was it
seemingly at least 50 years behind them? Despite the ruling Congress and UPA
making a virtue of Nehru’s Soviet-style ‘commanding heights of the economy’
policy for the public sector, why did we appear so third-world backward even in
1990? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">But for once this was not the
case when the new broom arrived to sweep clean in 2014. The Modi government has
been transformative, changing our logistical constraints with new,
comprehensive, improved infrastructure. It has changed our attitudes. We feel a
new confidence owing to the conduct of our foreign affairs. We have at last got
rid of the post-colonial hangover. We no longer, barring a few old fogeys from
the <i>ancien regime</i>, hanker after Western approval in all that we say and
do. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This administration is
turning improbable economic dreams into reality at great speed, as if it were
on a daily basis. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">It refuses to conform to
divisive binaries of religion and caste, despite constant vilification and
carping from the opposition and the leftist sections of the foreign media, to
the absolute contrary. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This government has been
labelled majoritarian, anti-secular etc from day one. It prospers despite all
this, much to the frustration of its detractors and even elicits a degree of
jealousy from the developed West. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">It reaches its target
audience in vastly increased welfare projects without leakages owing to
corruption. The rural poor have been provided with gas, electricity, water,
roads, healthcare, education, digital connectivity, reached practically to
their doorstep. And this on a non-discriminatory and universal basis. Housing
has been built for those in need of it, with loans given for their purchase.
Millions of toilets have been built to get rid of the indignity and dangers of
open defecation. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">We are learning, as a
country, to avoid the old traps of divide and rule, discarding old laws from
British times, and the manners and mores of the erstwhile administration, that
helped only those who were on their side. The <i>Sarkar</i> was still a <i>mai
baap </i>designed to enslave, till Modi came along to democratise it to an
extent. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The young people of today,
65% of the gargantuan population of over 1.4 billion, identify with this New
India, taking all the evident progress in their stride. Even the beginning of
liberalisation of the economy in 1991, over thirty years ago, is remote to
them, as if belonging to a different country. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">We are changing academic
curricula to reflect correct historical perspectives. We are introducing a
living Sanskrit, the study of the Ramayana and the Mahabharata, India’s two
great epics. We are now well aware that history did not begin with the Mughals
and the only symbol of beauty in India is not the Taj Mahal. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Great stories at one level,
our epics, are the basis, along with the Vedas, Puranas, the Upanishads, of the
nuances of Sanatana Dharma. They are not myth as we used to be told. They are
Bharat’s living history and wisdom of 10,000 years. Secularism is no longer
equal to a suppression of the Hindus and their cultural moorings.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">History being taught in
schools and colleges now comes with the help of new books shorn of deliberate
Marxist distortions introduced all over academia and publishing in the Nehru
era. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">It is a New India completely
different from Nehruvian shibboleths that have kept us trapped in an imported
time warp of ideas for five to six decades. A New India that promises to
deliver a developed country in every practical way by the time the Indian republic
turns hundred, in 2047. A country that will have a GDP of more than $ 30
trillion, up from the $ 4 trillion at present. Who could have ever imagined
this was going to happen in such a short time? What are the dangers though?
External shocks of sufficient magnitude could be the Black Swan. Internally,
losing control of government debt and inflation. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">But even this $ 4 trillion in
present GDP represents our march from the 10<sup>th</sup> largest economy to
the 5<sup>th</sup> largest, over just the last decade. Our stock market too is
at no.4 in the world now, having overtaken Hong Kong. And the near prospect is
of it becoming the No.3 economy by 2027, with a GDP at $ 10 trillion. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">It is nevertheless difficult
to see the significance of a new beginning at first. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The Ram Rath Yatra of
September-October 1990, was undertaken by then president of the BJP, Lal
Krishan Advani, one of just two BJP members of parliament as of 1984. It was
this Ram Rath Yatra that revitalised the BJP, catalysing a widespread Hindu
revival amongst the populace as well. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Its journey from Somnath in
Gujarat was intended to culminate in Ayodhya, but Advani was arrested as he
crossed into Bihar. Some 150,000 Kar Sevaks travelling alongside, were also
arrested in Uttar Pradesh. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The other BJP MP of that time
was Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who six years later, became its first prime minister,
at the head of an unwieldy coalition. Vajpayee, nevertheless adroitly managed
this coalition, and completed a five year-term after a thirteen-day first
innings, plus another year in power. He was not in a position to push many of
the items on the BJP manifesto, but achieved the courageous overt nuclear
weaponisation of India. He also gave a big boost to the infrastructure
development the BJP is still renowned for. He completed, during his time as
prime minister, a good part of the Golden Quadrilateral system of modern
highways connecting the metro cities. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This initial work is still
being carried forward with much greater connectivity by the Modi administration
today.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">It took another ten years for
a majority government of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to arrive. The
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with a majority tally of its own, came to power
under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The substantial electoral
mandate enabled the Modi administration to set about the comprehensive
transformation of India in thought, word and deed. This meant its
infrastructure, the way it saw itself, the way the world saw India, its
economy, science, technology, digital adoption, space technology, defence
manufacturing and <i>aatmanirbhar</i> manufacturing. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Another majority government
back-to-back, with a similar electoral tally in 2019, provided continuity and
momentum. There is now a strong possibility of a similar third consecutive term
in 2024. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This third term is slated to
take India to the third position amongst world economies, a doubled per capita
income once again, and GDP of $ 10 trillion. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The Ram Rath Yatra of 1990
started it all for the BJP, bringing it out of its marginalisation. Despite intense vilification from the then
ruling coalition, it received massive public support, perhaps pent up for decades.
This, even as Advani addressed at least six public gatherings every day. The
Yatra was undertaken by BJP and the RSS to support the Vishwa Hindu Parishad
(VHP) and allied organisations in the Sangh Parivar, who had been agitating for
a Ram Temple at his birth spot in Ayodhya from the 1980s. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"> This Hindu demand had been simmering ever
since 1528 when the original temple to Lord Ram was demolished by the Mir Baqi,
a general working for Babur, and the Babri Masjid built in its place. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Alongside Advani, throughout
the duration of the Rath Yatra was a little-known RSS Pracharak called Narendra
Damodardas Modi. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This was some years before
Narendra Modi emerged into widespread public
view in 2000, with multiple terms as chief minister of Gujarat. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This very Ram Rath Yatra was
followed by the fairly quick demolition of the Babri Masjid by Kar Sevaks on 6<sup>th</sup>
December 1992. Decades later still, it led to the establishment of a grand new
Ram Temple at Ayodhya in 2023-2024.In fact, the entire ancient city of Ayodhya
has begun to be transformed alongside, with many more developments in the
works. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">International stock broker
Jefferies expects five crore people to visit Ayodhya every year, and completely
transform the economy of the region if not the whole state of Uttar Pradesh.
Something like this sort of influx is also happening at the world’s oldest
city, Varanasi, after similar upgrading of connectivity, infrastructure, and
betterment of the environs of the Kashi Vishwanath temple.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">In many ways, the saga of the
Ram Temple in Ayodhya has been crucial to the rise of a new political and
cultural narrative. It has also been instrumental in shaking off the socialist
shackles of Nehruvian India. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">And yet, in 1991, forced by
bankruptcy due to its low-income-high-expenditure policies, it was the Congress
under Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao that ushered in political and economic
reform. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This unleashed high growth in
most of the years since. While per capita income has also doubled, it is
hamstrung by India’s massive population, the biggest in the world. However,
millions of people have been lifted out of absolute poverty. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The country has been food
surplus for this entire decade from 2014, with rare shortages of particular
eatables requiring imports from time to time. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Despite the Covid pandemic
that ravaged the world for two years, India held out better than most both in
terms of food and self-preservation. It developed millions of units of two
types of vaccines. The Modi administration not only inoculated over a billion
Indians, mostly free -of -charge, but exported and donated scarce vaccines to
many countries abroad. In addition, due to its production of many medicines at
reasonable cost it is called the pharmacy to the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Nandan Nilekani of Infosys
fame, as one of the founders of the storied IT company Infosys, largely
authored the Aadhar project(UIDAI), that today counts 1.3 billion Indians with
this digital and physical ID based on biometrics. This led to the development
of digital public infrastructure for delivery of multiple services. Nilekani
says this has been accomplished in just nine years, something that would have
taken half a century otherwise.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Goldman Sachs, the US
brokerage and financial services giant, put out a report on the 10 Modi
administration years. It not only called
the changes over the past decade transformative, but made some predictions
about the coming years. Manufacturing, says Goldman Sachs, will lead GDP growth
in India for seven years going forward, leading to a steep rise in goods and
services exports. Both will rise by at least 5 percentage points by 2031,
nearly doubling both absolute numbers from the 2021 levels.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The Indian economy is
transforming its infrastructure with great momentum. It has constructed 53 ,700
Km of national highways over the last decade, up from just about half as much
at 25,700 km between 2005 and 2013, says Goldman Sachs.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"> The Indian Railways, not mentioned
specifically in the report, have been also overhauled, with thousands of
kilometres of new track and doubling of existing track. Rail connectivity to
the entire North East has been achieved for the first time. Electrification of
the Indian Railways is heading towards 100%. The signalling systems have been
automated and turned digital. There is digital mobile ticketing via an App.
There is a huge quantity of domestically manufactured and also exported rolling
stock. The semi-high speed Made in India Vande Bharat trains have been
introduced. There are dedicated freight corridors, and the first of several
bullet trains is nearing its launch date. More than 400 railway stations have
been redesigned and revamped. There are many new railway bridges and tunnels,
as there are road tunnels for all weather connectivity at high altitude. Bottom
line, the Indian Railways that had gone all but bankrupt in 2013, now see much
better financial results and a grand future for itself.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Similarly, the metro systems
are being built or expanded in a score of cities and towns. The one in
Bengaluru, recently expanded with North-South as well as East-West axes, is
transport 800,000 people daily. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The first RRTS system using
made in India high-speed Namo Bharat train sets is being commissioned between
Delhi and Meerut with at least two more on the anvil.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Airports have likewise been
upgraded and new ones built. Indian aviation sector has placed orders for
almost a 1000 new aircraft with Boeing and Airbus. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">There are new ports
commissioned and being built and old ones modernised on both sea-boards in
peninsular India. There are new transshipment ports under process both on the
mainland and in the Andamans. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Massive infrastructure to
connect and better religious sites and temples all over the country have led to
a upsurge in pilgrimages and religious tourism.
<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Lakshwadeep is being
developed for domestic and foreign tourism, even as infrastructure at many
locations on the mainland are being ramped up to welcome the well-heeled
tourist.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">A key item of transformation
according to Goldman Sachs is India’s <i>aatmanirbhar</i> manufacturing programmes that makes it less
dependent on external factors. And this is largely underpinned by domestic
demand. </span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">This is perhaps illustrated
most vividly in India’s Tejas, Tejas 1A, AMCA fighter aircraft programmes, the second indigenous
aircraft carrier being built and various other shipbuilding and ship repair
activity, submarine manufacture and refurbishment, the manufacture of combat
helicopters, new light tanks, armoured carriers, missiles of various kinds,
bullet proof vests, combat rifles, drones, and ammunition and yet more. Some of
this work is being done by the private sector now. The private sector also
builds parts and components for aircraft for export. Adherence to its make in
India policy is now crucial to the success of foreign bids to sell and supply
defence and even other equipment. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Border infrastructure is
being transformed along the LaC, the LoC, the international border with
Pakistan, along the Bangladesh and Myanmar borders.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">While exports of defence
equipment have also begun to Armenia and the Philippines for example, the need
of the hour is to build as much of India’s massive defence procurement with
pronounced indigenous content. This saves the country billions of dollars, and
is strategically sound. India is also storing fuel in special purpose caverns
to the same end.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">With the coming on stream of
new oil and gas off the Arabian Sea coast, India will receive an additional
boost to its indigenous production amounting to some 7% of its requirements.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">India has developed huge
refining capacity, and now not only refines all of its crude imports, but also
reexports the refined fuel to a large number of other countries.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"> India’s broadband communication consumption
has risen exponentially to over 771 .3 million users over the last decade, up
from just 58.9 million users in the eight years prior. That India is also one
of the least expensive markets for mobile communications including data usage
is due to the numbers that use it. It is also now rapidly rolling out 5G
technology.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The Modi government’s push
towards renewable energy is growing as its ability to manufacture solar panels
expands to some 60% of current demand. Post the consecration at Ayodhya, the
prime minister announced that he would like to see a crore of rural households
using subsidised roof top solar panels. In new
affordable housing developments these can be planned in from the start. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Goldman Sachs points out the
country has already installed a total of 95.7 GW of renewable energy capacity
that includes solar and wind energy over the last decade, again up from just
25.5 GW between 2005 and 2014.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">One of the virtuous cycles is
that GST collections grow in tandem with the 6- 7% GDP growth year-on-year. This helps to keep
the deficit financing under control, even as the government <a>plans</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/2bcc959e91d4ebff/Documents/The%20Establishment%20Of%20A%20New%20India%20Over%20A%20Transformational%20Decade.odt#_msocom_1" id="_anchor_1" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_1">[Gautam Mu1]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"> to increase
its Capex spends by a further 20% in
2024.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">India now leads the world in
digital transactions with an exponential rise to 76.1 per cent in 2022-23 up
from just 4.4 per cent in 2015-16.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The real estate sector too is
now thriving with a record number of new launches across the country after a
period of relative despondency.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">India has also made a special
effort to revamp the systems in the Sports Ministry, said the prime minister,
while inaugurating the 6<sup>th</sup> Khelo India Youth Games recently at
Chennai. And certainly, the <a>results</a></span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/2bcc959e91d4ebff/Documents/The%20Establishment%20Of%20A%20New%20India%20Over%20A%20Transformational%20Decade.odt#_msocom_2" id="_anchor_2" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_2">[Gautam Mu2]</a><!--[endif]--> </span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"> over the
decade bear fulsome testimony to this fact. India has never before won so many
medals in diverse fields.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">There has been a nutritional
drive both nationally and internationally with the promotion of ‘Millets’, most
famously on the dinner menu of the heads of state banquet at the G20 Summit
held in New Delhi. Millets may take a bit of getting used to, but are not only
extremely nutritious, but also inexpensive.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">India’s progress at ISRO and
its space programmes has been spectacular as well. It has already sent an
unmanned craft to the moon and to observe the Sun and Mars alongside dozens of
satellites for the government, other entities, including foreign payloads.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Government PSUs concerned
with insurance, infrastructure development, defence manufacturing, the
railways, which were nearly dead in the water, are turning out profits. They are soaring on the
stock market and have bulging order book
positions.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The Modi government has been
pushing for the safety of female childbirth and education for girls, and now
its latest initiative at Davos 2024 was to foster global gender equity and
equality.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The prime mover of progress,
besides the Modi government’s efficiency, is definitely a stable political
environment necessary for the growth of economic activity. This has largely
been the contribution of the electoral mandate given by the people.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">The more the economy grows,
the greater can be its contribution to India’s development. Fortunately, the
benefits of this growth have helped almost everyone in the country because of
targeted government programmes for the masses. There is not, as the Communists
would have it, huge disparity of basic livelihood, jobless growth, privation of
the many. This, despite millions of people achieving prosperity at the top 10%
of the pyramid. We are no longer distributing poverty as we did under
socialism, with no money at 2% GDP or less, to pay for the welfare. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">While any listing of
achievements of the 10 years of Modi government is unlikely to be exhaustive,
what is astounding is the number of areas it has tackled, and all in mission
mode. This is a prime minister that has never taken a day off from his work. The
results of such exemplary zeal are therefore evident all around us.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">(3,154 words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">January 23<sup>rd</sup>, 2024</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">For: The Sunday Guardian
Special<o:p></o:p></span></b></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">Gautam Mukherjee</span></b><o:p></o:p></p><p class="MsoNormal">
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</div>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-57690504813193115162024-01-20T02:32:00.000-08:002024-01-20T02:32:44.573-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Modi-Made
New India Champions Global Gender Equality And Equity At Davos</span></b> <o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">As India’s
economic performance grows, its soft power grows in proportion. Prime Minister
Narendra Modi as the charismatic leader of this 75 year old republic and
ancient civilisational culture, is thought to have answers to the dilemmas of
the currently divided and troubled world. From a country that used to deliver
unwanted lectures to the world, it is now much sought after. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Modi’s ‘one
world family’ messaging during the recent G20 year hosted by India, ended by
including the 55 nation African Union into its fold. India made the effort,
achieved unanimity for the move, and successfully included the most exploited
and savaged continent on earth onto the leading global platform where its ills
can be addressed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Domestically,
the inclusive tone is set by <i>‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Prayas, Sabka
Viswas’,</i> despite the inevitable mockery and accusations of Hindu triumphalism.
<a style="mso-comment-date: 20240120T1458; mso-comment-done: yes; mso-comment-reference: GM_1;">Together</a>,</span><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt; line-height: 106%;"><!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomanchor" href="https://d.docs.live.net/2bcc959e91d4ebff/Documents/Modi%20Made%20New%20India%20Champions%20Global%20Gender%20Equality%20And%20Equity%20At%20Davos.odt#_msocom_1" id="_anchor_1" language="JavaScript" name="_msoanchor_1">[GM1]</a><!--[endif]--><span style="mso-special-character: comment;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;"> these ideas resonate in an old-fashioned
way in a world with two ongoing wars, one in Europe and the other in West Asia
and the tendency to form opposing axes. A polarisation not seen since WWII is
developing in a very worrisome way. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Meanwhile,
the fact that India has drawn closer to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
and Israel than ever before, in practical, material, ways, gives the lie to the
criticism of Hindu communalism. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">In addition,
America has become a firm strategic partner with military and technological
benefits for both. France is now a firm friend and defence manufacturing
partner too, along with Russia. Other relationships have also undergone massive
positive transformations, such as the one with Japan. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Modi, a grey
eminence with unbounded energy, in his 73<sup>rd</sup> year now, is widely
regarded as one of the most respected and influential voices in the pantheon of
global leaders. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">That this
global prominence has grown steadily over the last ten years is not surprising.
Not only have the prime minister and external affairs minister been indefatigable
in their diplomatic efforts, India has come from 10<sup>th</sup> to 5<sup>th</sup>
position in its economy. This fact has given India great credibility.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">With a gross
domestic product growth of around 7 percent per annum going forward, India is
expected to occupy the 3<sup>rd</sup> position in the world by 2027. It will be
behind only the US and China, with a GDP of $10 trillion, up from its current $
4 trillion. It is the world’s most successful economy now. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">By 2047, India’s
100<sup>th</sup> year since independence, it is expected to have become a highly
developed country. It will also have multiples of its present per capita income
for its vast population, expected to touch 1.70 billion by then. It is expected
to have an economy of over $ 30 trillion by then.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">That India’s
soft power is growing alongside all this is not surprising, nor is it unprecedented.
Ancient India was fabled for its wealth, the greatest in the ancient world.
That it set off a series of marauding conquests and occupations was the other
side of the coin not likely to be repeated in the 21<sup>st</sup> century. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Its cultural,
civilisational and dharmic influence spread all over the Far East including
China and Japan. This without benefit of any aggression, attempt at domination or
conquest. West Asia was also heavily influenced by Indian learning and
innovation. And not a few so called inventions and discoveries claimed by the
West were shamelessly lifted from India without acknowledgement. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Davos, used
to hosting world’s leaders, its finest minds and economic thinkers, for over
half a century now, witnessed a major presence from India this year, building
on the interest generated last year. This in the presence of leaders from 300
countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The rate of
foreign direct investment into India has trebled, and is slated to grow
exponentially into high technology areas such as chip-making, defence
manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and other relocations of manufacturing
from China.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">For its
latest soft power projection, India deployed the thoroughly confident and
articulate Union Minister for Minority Affairs, Smriti Irani. She led the
charge for global gender equality and equity.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">This is the
first time a woman minister has been sent to represent India’s government, and
over 1 .4 billion people at Davos. This gender initiative is supported by the
Bill and Melinda Foundation, the Davos Summit founder, and over 10,000 global
corporate houses. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The gender
alliance is intended to bring together global good practices, knowledge sharing,
and most importantly, investment in women’s health, education, and support for
women-led enterprise.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Irani has
also recently returned from a path-breaking trip to Mecca and Medina. She had
gone there to improve the Indian and Saudi government supported facilities for
Indian pilgrims on the Umra or Haj, required of devout Muslims at least once in
their lifetime. She was received warmly by the Saudi clerics and authorities, despite
being sent out to do what was seen as a ‘man’s job’. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">But the
whole question of gender equity and equality has had a chequered career in
India so far. The government recognises the problems associated with it, and
has attacked it at various levels including banning gender determination using
sonograms at the pre-birth stage, and the crime of infant matricide/ patricide
of female children. Later in the trajectory, people are exhorted to educate
girl children. The process is working, as gender ratios and school statistics
bear out, but there is a long way to go towards equal participation in the work
force. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Meanwhile,
India boasts of female fighter pilots trained to fly the supersonic Rafale,
female commercial pilots, policewomen, soldiers, lawyers, doctors, teachers,
judges in the higher judiciary. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">And yet,
only 27% odd of women have joined the work force so far, with many dropping out
after a spell to take the remainder to depressing single digits. The old
patriarchal attitudes persist, making it very hard for them and thereby wasting
a massive human resource.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">However, by
using a global platform at Davos and the support the initiative has garnered,
it is clear that this lack of gender equity and equality is a global phenomenon.
Women are simply not considered for many jobs. Many avenues of learning are
closed to them. They do not get equal pay or terms of contract. And this in
advanced Western countries. The plight of women in Islamic countries is much
worse, with Afghanistan under the Taliban or Iran under the Ayatollahs
providing the most extreme cases.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The
important thing is that India seeks to not only grow itself but change the
inequities and maladjustments elsewhere. This gender initiative is another step
in this direction. With a dozen Indian lounges at the 54<sup>th</sup> Global
Summit at Davos, it featured prominently at the five day jamboree. Many of the
Indian states such as Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka competed
for attention with Indian AI and technology giants such as Wipro, Infosys, TCS
and HCL Tech. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">There were
three union ministers present, as many chief ministers, and a contingent of
Indian CEOs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">India has
moved on from showcasing its exotica as ‘Incredible India’, to projecting a
lucrative and viable ‘Credible India’ – a preferable investment destination.
That it also has a message or two for the world can only be seen as a bonus.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">(1,194 words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">January
20<sup>th</sup>, 2024<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Gautam
Mukherjee</span><o:p></o:p></b></p>
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<p class="MsoCommentText"><span class="MsoCommentReference"><span style="font-size: 8.0pt;"><span style="mso-special-character: comment;"> <!--[if !supportAnnotations]--><a class="msocomoff" href="https://d.docs.live.net/2bcc959e91d4ebff/Documents/Modi%20Made%20New%20India%20Champions%20Global%20Gender%20Equality%20And%20Equity%20At%20Davos.odt#_msoanchor_1">[GM1]</a><!--[endif]--></span></span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
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</div>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-61710548115907044772023-12-28T04:07:00.000-08:002023-12-28T04:07:37.345-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Is Biden,
Mired In Two Wars, Going To Be A One-Term President<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Incumbent
President Joe Biden,81, standing for re-election in 2024, knows, after more
than fifty years in the Senate, and as President Obama’s two term Vice
President, that incumbents generally win. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">He has come
a long way from suggesting he was just a ‘bridge’ president, and a definite
one-termer in 2019. He might even had meant it at the time. Now, he wants to go
the distance into a second-term, rocking into his late eighties, experience,
and infirmities, in tow. But yes, he is in good health, just like his rival.
Biden gaffes do not necessarily make him senile, and can hold their own against
various Trumpisms. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Biden does
not, however, as staff writer Linda Feldman of The Christian Science Monitor
puts it, have ‘a core base of enthusiasm’ for his candidacy in the Democratic
Party. Fine, but there is a TINA factor at play, and Biden does not have 91
felonies against himself either. Felonies, and other legalistic land- mines,
any of which could disqualify Trump and open up a whole new race. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, by
way of contrast, the other ancient, his pugnacious challenger Donald Trump, does
enjoy massive core support in the Republican Party. Donald Trump thinks,
controversially, that the election was stolen from him four years ago, and is
spoiling for a rematch. The swing states and polls support Trump. He could win
quite handily. The election, in November 2024 is still eleven months away of
course, and much could change.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Meanwhile,
inflation has hit, skyrocketing grocery and food prices. This may not be grand
economics, but it is lived experience for the people. People want to see the
prices that existed pre Covid. This, of course, is unlikely because of the
bruising the economy has taken over two lockdown years. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The domestic
economy, is, in fact, growing now, and has staved off a recession. Unemployment
is not a major issue. The Democrat position on free abortion rights makes sense
to most women across the two main parties. Most women want the right to decide
and do not agree with <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>male Republican
religious fundamentalists who have organised a ban by overthrowing the Roe-Wade
judgement. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Other broader
issues such as national security when there are frequent shootings of innocents
in public places are being debated and additional measures contemplated. However,
the American fundamental right to bear arms is not going away anytime soon. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Immigration is a double-edged sword. Cheap
illegal labour on the one hand, and demographic pressures on the other. We have
a similar problem with four million or more Bangladeshi infiltrators here in
India.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Challenger
Donald Trump, has a way of outraging the Democrat voter with his radical
pronouncements such as calling certain folk vermin at a veterans’ rally. It
works with the White Blue Collars, but not so much with others. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This Trump
loud-mouth will work in favour of Biden within his party and support groups, as
he invokes the ‘soul of the nation’ like a good Catholic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Given his
long experience in politics, Biden and his handlers, should be able to best any
internal Democrat challengers. Biden also connects well with small groups and
people in small towns, his ‘Scranton Joe’ image from his hometown in Pennsylvania,
and likes going out to speak to them. Being the incumbent president is of
immense value in these acts of humility.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In foreign
policy, the only ones that can be glad all over are the ones that run the huge
military industrial complex in America. They are making massive profits from
sales. War is always good for such people.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Biden’s term began with an abrupt withdrawal
from Afghanistan leaving behind billions in sophisticated weaponry. While the
president got good domestic press for his decisiveness and bringing the troops
home, it left a power vacuum in the region, with security implications for
several nations, including India.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The war in
Ukraine, backed massively by the US and NATO, seems, in year two, to be stuck
in the mud and snow. Oil and gas prices are on the edge ever since this war in
Europe began. It started a spiral of increasing costs and prices of almost
everything for the Western Europeans. Most are not growing and, on the edge of,
or actually in, recession. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
sanctions against Russia have not worked when it comes to petroleum, with
Russia selling all its output to China and India. In other areas, the Western
sanctions have put a check on componentry for Russian arms manufacturing and
other sectors. But countries such as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan (who sell ammunition
to both sides), North Korea, have made up for some of the shortages. China is
not directly involved in military supplies as yet, but is backing Russia. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The other
new war in the Middle East, with Israel staunchly backed by the US, in its
battle with the Hamas in Gaza, threatens to spread to and disrupt the sea-lanes
of the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, based in
Yemen, are slinging Iranian-made missiles, and employing Iranian-made drones,
on unarmed merchant ships and oil tankers. Rerouting is a very expensive
business, that would more than double the freight rates. Iran denies any
involvement. The war has also bled into Syria and against the Hezbollah in Lebanon
to an extent. Israel is quite prepared to attack Iran directly and has done so
in small part.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There are
Muslim groups in America vociferously opposed to the unstinted support to
Israel, but this is long term policy for America, unlikely to be affected by
radical press, university activism, or ethnic minority outrage. But will these
groups, mostly Democrat, vote for Biden? If they don’t, they cannot expect any
better from the Republicans either.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There is
another thing to consider. Incumbent presidents at war, or supporting them,
usually win their second terms convincingly.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The public does not like to change horses in mid-stream. Comparisons between
Biden and previous one term presidents may not be appropriate given the context.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As things
stand, the war in Israel-Gaza is likely to end much before the campaign period
does, with opportunities for statesmanship on the part of President Biden. In
Ukraine, President Putin of Russia has apparently indicated he is nor averse to
a ceasefire. If the US is able to bring the Ukraine war to a close it will stand
Biden in immense good measure.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is true
that Biden’s approval rating at present is below 40% and most pollsters think
it is a dead heat between him and Trump, but the presidential campaign has not
yet truly begun.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For India,
it matters little who wins between Biden and Trump, assuming there are no
upsets at the line up on both sides. There are, on the face of it, no
alternative nominees for the top of the ticket in either political party.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What matters
for India, is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to win a third
consecutive term, with a majority for the BJP. This would mean policy
continuity. With the Indian economy chugging ahead at between 6 and 7 percent
in GDP per annum, we will be well placed to receive the winner in America with
warmth and confidence. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
strategic relationship between India and the United States has been
painstakingly formulated over several Democrat and Republican administrations.
It has largely overcome its hesitations. China is the unabashed contender for
world domination, chafing at the bit. The India-America relationship has
already contributed towards giving the dragon some pause. This, as it wonders
upon, and ponders on, its relative strength vis a vis two battle-hardened and
formidable technological powers/armed forces. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India’s
relationship with America has consolidated its gains, is now definitely stable,
and poised for further growth. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,279
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">December
28<sup>th</sup>, 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-24767735766871640632023-11-17T22:06:00.000-08:002023-11-17T22:06:25.151-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Bangladesh
Elections On January 7<sup>th</sup> 2024 Likely To Elect Incumbent Shaikh
Hasina To A Fourth Consecutive Term </span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">There is a
case for, and a tradition of, strong leadership in Islamic countries. The West
often fails to understand the wisdom in this, and this has led to its trying to
impose a version of democracy on a number of these countries. The result has
been disastrous, unless such ‘democracies’ in turn, impose a version that
resembles a near dictatorship.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Several
Islamic nations are still absolute monarchies, with strict police state
approaches to law and order, dissent and debate. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Others have
uniformed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>military men at the top.
Wherever such governments have been toppled, as was the case after the Arab
Spring movement, general chaos ensued, until another tough no nonsense leader
emerged. Where no such one leader is thrown up, the country is generally ruled
by factional warlords that each hold sway over different parts of the country,
as in Libya. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">In Pakistan,
from which East Pakistan broke away to form Bangladesh in 1971, democracy has
not really taken root, unlike India. This, even though it has elections, and a
parliament. It is <i>de facto</i> run by the Pakistan Army and its intelligence
wing, the ISI. And it has seen its share of political assassinations over the
years since its founding in 1947.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>President Shaikh Hasina escaped harm during
the assassination of her father, by being in West Germany at the time along
with her sister Shaikh Rehana. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The
legendary Bongobondhu Mujibur Rahman, her father, the founder president of
Bangladesh, and most of her immediate family were killed by a group of
Bangladesh Army personnel on 15 August 1975. It was a bloody coup d’etat barely
four years after Bangladesh came into being, followed by a series of counter
coups over several years. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Sheikh
Hasina was barred from returning to Bangladesh immediately. She was given
sanctuary by India, and was only able to return to Bangladesh on 17<sup>th</sup>
May 1981. When she got to Dhaka, she inherited leadership of the Awami League,
the political party founded by her father, and came to power for the first time
after the elections of 1996.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Her
political rival was, and is, her erstwhile collaborator Khalida Zia of the
Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Khaleda Zia won her first term in 1991 but
resigned to a caretaker government followed by Sheikh Hasina winning her first
term in 1996. The precedent therefore for the demand for President Hasina to
handover to an impartial caretaker government, comes from this 1996 election. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">In 2001,
Khaleda Zia and the BNP won again, as it turned out, probably for the last
time. During 2006-2008 Sheikh Hasina was in jail on extortion charges. When she
was released, she won the elections in 2008, and has been in power ever since.
As of 17<sup>th</sup> November 2023, Sheikh Hasina is the longest-serving
female head of government in history.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Now at 76
years of age, Sheikh Hasina presides over a rapidly expanding economy and has
reined in both Islamic radicalism and a military with a history of meddling in
politics. Her rival Khalida Zia’s BNP is backed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>not only by radical Islamists, but also the Pakistan Army and ISI to
boot. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">However,
Sheikh Hasina is walking an image tightrope for her staunchly authoritarian
ways. She is virulently criticised by the Left in the West as well as her
political rivals. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The US has
crafted some curious visa restrictions against Bangladeshis who obstruct a free
and fair election process, from coming to visit. Earlier, in 2021, the US
Treasury sanctioned Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), implicated in
extra judicial disappearances. Shaikh Hasina sees much of this as the
application of double standards that ignore much of the good work she and her
government has done over the years. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">However, she
enjoys the continued confidence of India, that was very helpful in the birthing
of Bangladesh in 1971, and this goes on under the Modi government today. There
are increasing trade, commerce and transportation linkages between India and
Bangladesh that are aiding India’s Look East Policy. China is also an investor
in Bangladesh and Shaikh Hasina is quite keen on joining BRICS.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The US, as
the principal importer of Bangladeshi readymade garments, (the raw materials
come from India), at $ 55 billion, 85% of all its exports, and some 16% of its
GDP, wants her to hold free and fair elections. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">There is a
wage agitation amongst the garment workers, most likely instigated by the
opposition, despite their emoluments being increased from $75 a month to $ 114.
The workers want more, but the government has refused further increases, in
order to maintain the competitiveness of Bangladeshi garment exports.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Khalida
Zia’s BNP and other supporting political parties have threatened to boycott the
elections (once again, having done so in 2014), unless Shaikh Hasina resigns
and appoints a caretaker government. Khalida Zia is gravely ill now and under
house arrest for alleged corruption, and other senior leaders are in exile.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">However,
under the circumstances of deep political hostility from the opposition, and
violent agitations ongoing, this seems unlikely. Shaikh Hasina has survived 19
assassination attempts over the years as an illustration of the political
atmosphere. And the device of the caretaker government at election time, used
widely between 1996 and 2008, is no longer necessary following a constitutional
amendment in 2011. This was necessitated by a military backed caretaker
government that clung to power for nearly a year from 2006.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The
elections have just been announced for January 7<sup>th</sup> 2024 by the
Bangladesh Election Commission.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
boycott from the opposition, despite exhortations to the contrary from the EC,
will result in a certain victory for the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">(935
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">November
17<sup>th</sup>, 2023</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">For: Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Gautam
Mukherjee</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-26966252556863170822023-11-09T00:21:00.002-08:002023-11-09T00:21:33.246-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Will Amit
Shah Succeed Narendra Modi Or Will It Be Yogi Adityanath?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Union Home
Minister and Minister of Cooperation Amit Shah has come a long way. He is not
only the internal security maven but jockeys the nation’s varied cooperative
movements. This, in addition to his invaluable contribution to election
strategy via the current BJP Party President, his own handpick, JP Nadda. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It all
began, in a sense, when he and Narendra Modi, one an RSS Karyakarta then, and
the other who entered the fray via the AVBP, were tasked to infiltrate the
powerful co-operative movement at the grassroots level in Gujarat. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This meant
the credit cooperatives, and principally, the vast milk cooperatives, that have
some 36 lakh members today. In rural Gujarat political terms, the money and
influence/patronage the cooperatives wielded were crucial. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The most
influential and well-known, Amul, a brand in its own right to rival any,
accounts for a turnover of over Rs. 60,000 crores today, and exports its
products to various countries as well. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
cooperative movement in Gujarat, in the nineties, was controlled by the
Congress Party that also ruled the state. The then BJP leadership saw it as a
potent political avenue to come to power in the state. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Modi and
Shah delivered in spades, and developed a special bond travelling the dusty mofussil
roads of Gujarat on foot, motorcycle, and bus. This success catapulted both to
power a few years later, Modi as chief minister of Gujarat, when he won the
elections in 2001. By then he was a well-known figure in rural and urban
Gujarat. And Amit Shah came in as his multi-bagging home minister. Shah was
also put in-charge of several other ministries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The multiple
and consecutive terms that Modi won with a BJP majority in Gujarat, with Amit
Shah alongside, next paved his way to the centre as prime minister. Here too,
he won with the first absolute majority for the NDA in over 30 years. The last
majority government at the centre had been that of Rajiv Gandhi, won in the
aftermath of the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Modi has now
been in power for two consecutive terms at the centre, and is likely to deliver
another win for the NDA in 2024, just round the bend.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Amit Shah,
in his late fifties now, is widely seen to have the heft, the election winning
savvy, and the administrative experience at the centre and state, to succeed
Narendra Modi. He also enjoys the unwavering confidence of the prime minister
and that of the ideological fount, the RSS.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The key to
his likely elevation to the top job when the time comes, is partially his work
with the cooperatives as its first union minister, as of 2021. This, in
addition to the Union Home Ministry, traditionally regarded as the No.2 position
in the hierarchy of the Union Cabinet. The crucial thing, of course, is to be a
charismatic vote-getter as well as a election strategist. In this too, Amit
Shah has had considerable nation-wide experience. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Amit Shah
has accomplished quite a lot with the Cooperation Ministry too. The centre is
now in the business of controlling the cooperative movement nationally in a
much more pointed way. It has, even in the past, overseen the activity from the
Agriculture Ministry but it was neglected and not very effective. But now that
the cooperative movement has gone beyond just agriculture, to labour,
construction, and other new areas, in replacement of moribund and often corrupt
unions, a new ministry was called for. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Cooperatives
are also a state subject, with a registrar for cooperatives in each, but even
the RBI oversees the cooperative rural banks. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Some
analysts have described the cooperative movement as the ‘scaffolding’ that
holds up rural India, to give an idea of its importance. For a start, the
budgetary support from the centre for the cooperation ministry has been increased
seven-fold in under two years. Some taxes on the sugar sector have been removed
outright. The MAT (minimum alternate tax), has been reduced to 15% from 18%. The
surcharge on cooperative organisations has been reduced to 7% from the
erstwhile 12%. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Centre is
computerising cooperative societies, in order to connect them directly to
NABARD (National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development), for which Rs.
6,500 crores has been set aside. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Most
recently, a newly created National Cooperative Organics Limited (NCOL) will
offer organic products under the brand name Bharat Organics. It will ensure the
availability of certified organic products in the market. Some 439 laboratories
are to be set up around the country for the certification of farm produce.
About 50% of the profits from the sale of Bharat Organics products will be
transferred directly to member farmers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Six products
have been launched already- namely tur dal, chana dal, sugar rajma, basmati
rice, and sonamasoori rice. These will be sold via Mother Dairy and Safal
outlets, as well as various online platforms. Two more such cooperatives, like
NCOL have also been set up, these for seeds and exports. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The attempt
here is to strike a balance between high fertilizer use in commercial farming,
very popular during the Green Revolution that led to India becoming food
surplus despite a four-fold increase in population. This because chemical
fertilizers in high use are harmful for the soil and water. So organic is an
essentially ecofriendly approach and intended balancer.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Amit Shah is
also using the Police that come under his Home Ministry to reenergise a
national tree plantation drive, with species chosen carefully for their
longevity and oxygen creating abilities.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the big
picture, the Ministry of Cooperation is making out model bye-laws in order to
make the cooperatives multi- purpose/functional. Computerisation of
cooperatives is well underway. To drive the movements to the grassroots some
two lakh new societies are being formed at the Panchayat/Village level. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There are
many cooperative activities on the anvil. A thrust is being given to
decentralised granaries/ grain storages under the cooperative movements, to
ensure near home food security. Common e-service centres are being set up for
ease of access. The cooperatives are to be used to distribute LPG, set up
retail stores at petrol pumps, take on new petrol/diesel dealerships. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>They are to set up generic medicine outlets, establish
fertilizer distribution centres. They will set up drone manufacturing for
multiple uses. Develop more extensive micro-financing and rural credit centres.
Maintain the piped water supply. Set up decentralised Solar plants for
electricity, and so on.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
cooperative movements can well be an alternate method to energise the
hinterland apart from the rural mandi system. The sugar cooperatives of
Maharashtra, for example, are the basis of the strength of the NCP and the
Pawar family. When it is driven from the centre by the BJP, it has implications
and great potential at the national level. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It may be
early days for the Ministry of Cooperation, set up only in July 2021, but the
prospects are excellent as a power driver in five years-time. That Amit Shah
could benefit hugely from his administration of this ministry is in no doubt.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">His
competitor for the prime ministership is also young and charismatic. Yogi
Adityanath has won two consecutive terms in Uttar Pradesh, an electoral feat
not seen for decades past. He is bulldozing his way ahead to transform the
economy of Uttar Pradesh to the level of $ 1 trillion per annum. He is also
cooperating fully for the largely centre driven infrastructure development in
his state. The UP Defence Corridor, and the vast development in Ayodhya and in
Varanasi are major propellants. Yogi Adityanath’s main attractiveness for the
top job is his effective handling of law and order in the state. He has been so
good at it that a large section of the BJP voter base wants to see him as prime
minister. Or, if that is not possible, in five or so years, given his lack of
experience at the centre, as Home Minister. People think Yogi Adityanath will be
a very good fit in Amit Shah’s present job. That, of course, may work out very
well for both. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The question
is, can Uttar Pradesh stay with the BJP without Yogi Adityanath at its helm?
Can BJP do without Uttar Pradesh and still win in 2029? Can Yogi Adityanath win
UP for BJP by making election forays from the Centre?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,382
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">November
9<sup>th</sup>, 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-15485821244251631142023-11-07T02:12:00.003-08:002023-11-07T02:25:20.499-08:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Has The
Dragon Scuppered The India Bhutan Relationship? <o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">When the
King of Bhutan state visits India for eight long days, family and official entourage
in tow, you can surmise something is amiss in the traditionally warm
relationship. The status quo has been threatened by 25 rounds of border talks between
China and Bhutan with two agreements signed, one a ‘three-step’ agreement in
2021, and another just a fortnight ago. Bhutan is about to establish diplomatic
relations with China according to its Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji who led the
talks in Beijing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Ostensibly
however, the King’s visit is to sell a brand new project expected to generate
thousands of Bhutanese jobs even as its youth are restive about lack of
opportunities in the land-locked kingdom. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Bhutan’s
Prime Minister Lotay Tshering said Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first King
Wangchuck contacted on the ‘Gateway City’ project at Gelephu on its border with
Assam. It is to become Bhutan’s first Smart City. After King Wangchuck met with
Prime Minister Modi in New Delhi on November 5<sup>th</sup>, the Bhutanese
prime minister announced India will give the project its full support. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Beijing has
been leaning hard on Thimpu to settle the issue of the Doklam Plateau that
contains the strategic Tri-junction between China-Bhutan and India. It
overlooks a narrow strip of land called ‘The Siliguri Corridor’ that connects
India with its North-Eastern states. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Ever since
the military stand-off there with India in 2017 that lasted over 93 days, the
Chinese have been building roads, bridges and townships on Bhutanese land on
the plateau that it claims as its own. It has been seven years. India has done
nothing about it unilaterally to avoid a flash-point, and Bhutan has been in no
position to resist. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Also, there
is a section of the Bhutanese people, particularly when China was doing better
economically, who questioned the lack of diplomatic relations with China, a
UNSC P5 country, and what they saw as over dependence on India. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Things are a
little different again in 2023, when China is in an economic crisis and two
countries, Italy and the Philippines, have recently pulled out of its BRI
Projects, even as a number of others are in disarray. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Pakistan, China’s
so-called all-weather ally, is also facing its own difficulties on the brink of
utter bankruptcy, and the China-Pakistan CPEC is in deep trouble. It is also
under attack by terrorists, both in Balochistan which contains the expensive
China built port of Gwadar, and in central areas of Pakistan including Karachi.
Many Chinese have been killed in Pakistan and the parts of the CPEC road that
are ready are subject to frequent attack. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Bhutan would,
no doubt, like to wriggle out of the dragon’s increasingly uncomfortable
embrace under present circumstances. After all, it has the makings of a
stranglehold that has been building ever since Chairman Mao claimed not only
Tibet, which China occupied in 1950, but Bhutan, as Chinese territory too. Even
now China claims large tracts of Bhutan along its borders, and that is what
these border talks have been unavoidably about. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">To wriggle
out of the dragon’s clutches then may be a desire, but how is the question.
Would an ambitious economic project, the first of its kind for Bhutan, be a
method to balance its situation between China and India?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">India is
principally concerned with its own national interests, even as Bhutan has been
conducting these many rounds of border talks with China, inclusive of Bhutanese
visits to China to hold them. So, to an extent, Bhutan seeks to leverage its
geographical position, and new found quasi-relationship with China. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">However, the
matter is delicate, because India has already calculated in the consequences of
China capturing the Tri-Junction area and how to deter it in the event it has
designs on cutting off Indian access to its North East. The Doklam Plateau and
the Tri-Junction Area is in India’s advanced military sights, along with the
narrow strip of Indian territory under 30 km wide it overlooks. In addition,
India has been building roads, airports, train lines, tunnels and bridges, for
faster and better connectivity with its North East. It also enjoys a good
relationship with Bangladesh. The neighbouring country is already providing
river, sea, and train connectivity to India in multiple places to promote trade
and commerce between the two countries. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All this combined with satellite and aerial
surveillance, collectively and jointly blunts the Chinese threat at the
Tri-Junction.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The King,
Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, looked slightly sheepish of visage on arrival.
His government’s border talks with China resulting in an agreement signed
barely a fortnight ago, have not been objected to by India.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The King stopped first in bordering Assam on
November 3<sup>rd</sup>, where he was received by the expansive Hemanta Biswa
Sarma, the dynamic CM of Assam, and major influence in the states of the North
East. King Wangchuck discussed infrastructure with Sarma, including a 57 km rail
line connecting Korajhar in Assam with Gelephu in Bhutan, where an
international airport is to be also built. The King will also visit Mumbai
after Delhi, where he will talk to prospective investors in the Gelephu
project, called the Sarpang Special Economic Zone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">He was
received at the Delhi airport by a slightly stiff S Jaishankar, the storied
Indian External Affairs Minister. Pictures have been released of the Prime
Minister Narendra Modi walking and talking unctuously with the King in the
corridors of his 7 Lok Kalyan Marg residence. The Governments of India and
Bhutan have been largely tight-lipped about the actual bilateral and strategic
talks between the two sides. This is understandable with China waiting to pick
up clues.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However a lot has changed. If China threatens
India at the Doklam Tri-Junction, not only can it expect stiff resistance
there, but it could find India acting in PoK where China’s interests in Tibet
and the Siachen could be compromised, along with the mouth of the CPEC from
Xinkiang through <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gilgit-Baltistan. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Geopolitically,
it is India that is the darling of the West now, led by the US. It is not only
a member of QUAD, with strong relationships with Japan and Australia in the
neighbourhood, but a strategic and military collaborator/ partner of the US and
France in particular. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">It is
increasingly seen in the Western camp opposed to China and its satellites such
as North Korea and Pakistan, on the South China Sea and Taiwan. Its
relationship with Iran and Russia now brooks alternatives. It has stood firmly
with Israel against the terrorists from Hamas, without damaging its friendships
with Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">It is
steadily drawing away parts of the supply chain from China, as in the
production of Apple phones, and has halved <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>imports across the board from China. It is
also banning more and more Chinese apps, Chinese companies, and has practically
stopped Chinese investment in India. India is growing at almost 7% in GDP year
on year, the best performance amongst major economies in the world while China
is struggling below 4%.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">The point of
Bhutan’s situation is that India may have quietly bypassed its strategic
concerns with the Himalayan kingdom. It is up to Bhutan to maintain the
traditionally close relationship with India for its own sake. King Wangchuk
realises this. Hopefully he will <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>return
to Thimpu satisfied with India’s continuing and abiding interest in his
picturesque country. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,221
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">November
7<sup>th</sup>, 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-49736336298205568352023-11-01T02:33:00.002-07:002023-11-01T02:33:47.765-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Singur Of
Tata Nano Fame Is The 15 Year Old Saga Of A Political Potboiler & An
Industrial Wasteland<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At
independence, and for a couple of decades after, West Bengal was the most
industrialised state in India and a great deal of business and industry was
head quartered in Calcutta, as it was known as then. People flocked for
employment and commerce to a cosmopolitan and elegant former capital of the
British Empire in the sub-continent. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But all this
changed drastically, and as if forever, with the advent of 34 years of Left
front rule, after the earlier Congress governments were vote out. This, soon
after a vicious Naxalite agitation, that was brutally suppressed by Congress.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">By the time
the former chain-smoking Left Front Chief Minister of West Bengal, Buddhadev
Bhattacharya finally came into his own, he was keen and eager to turn a page
and reindustrialise the state. This was some time after the passing away of
anti-capitalist industry, the long-term Chief Minister Jyoti Basu. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Basu enjoyed
a titanic stature, reputation and affection amongst the people of West Bengal. This
was mainly due to his land reform that gave land to the landless. Then there
was his abiding sympathy for the labourer and farm worker. His policies against
caste discrimination and a secular approach that enthused the minorities in the
state in favour of the Left Front. Basu’s Brown Saheb sophistication endeared
him to the middle class and the intellectuals too. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">British
educated Basu’s three decades at the helm, saw every industry strike- bound,
locked-out or closed down, till they all fled West Bengal. All except for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the firms associated with tea and cigarettes.
And these two businesses were geographically strapped to stay put. The only
person who ran a factory successfully in Jyoti Basu’s time, the joke goes, was
his son Chandan Basu, who has since seen fit to repair to Canada, out of the
reach of inconvenient questions.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Jyoti Basu
was many things to the Left Front and even as a support to Indira Gandhi’s
government at the Centre, but he effectively ruined the industrial climate in
West Bengal. So much so, that it is much the same today with most investment
refusing to come to West Bengal despite exhortations from its government, its
intelligent and educated population.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Bhattacharya,
in perhaps a Stalinist move in retrospect, had the West Bengal Industrial
Development Corporation (WBIDC) sign an agreement with Tata Motors. It was to
set up a green-field factory to manufacture the revolutionary Tata Nano 600cc
petrol-powered motorcar that was to be sold initially for just Rs. 1 lakh. It
could, the prototypes showed, transport five people comfortably. Ratan Tata’s
dream child, it was intended to revolutionise transportation for the lower
middle class. The Singur plant would employ about 2,000 persons directly, and
provide employment to over 10,000 people indirectly, when it became
operational. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Bhattacharya led government <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>acquired
nearly 1,000 acres of the ‘three-crops a year’ fertile agricultural land at
Singur for the project from the none too happy farmers, providing meagre
compensation in the bargain. Knowing the political climate in West Bengal, it
was an agitation waiting to happen. The Tata Motors and WBIDC jointly chose
Singur for its proximity to Kolkata, just <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>40 km away, and its good connectivity with the
highways nearby. It did not, it appears, take care of local sentiment in using
a high hat colonial land acquisition law.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But when
Trinamool Congress started its agitation against the location of the plant, the
contention was why it wasn’t sited in designated industrial areas instead of on
fertile agricultural land. Trinamool Congress alleged that the Left Front
government had forcibly acquired the land despite farmer protests, and the
project could not go ahead.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Despite
early trouble, Tata Motors began to pour in an estimated Rs. 1,800 crores into
the project from January 2007. Thirty of its vendors set up plant buildings alongside
for an investment of over 170 crores.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Left
Front government, despite best efforts, were not able to settle matters with
the Singur farmers to their satisfaction. Fed up with the turmoil, then Tata
Chairman Ratan Tata decided to relocate the project to Sanand in Gujarat, towards
the end of 2008 - on October 3, 2008. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">That the
Tata Nano was not a great success in terms of sales, despite incentives offered
by the Gujarat government, is another story. It is likely, according to some
reports. to see a new avatar as an electric car soon.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">But all the
while, the Trinamool Congress agitation intensified along with attacks against
plant personnel. So much so, that the Left Front government of Buddhadev
Bhattacharya was brought down by the Trinamool Congress over this matter.
Trinamool Congress came to power in its stead, and has been running West Bengal
for three consecutive terms ever since. It is no wonder that the Singur
agitation has been inserted into the school text books in the state.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Singur is
back in the news after 15 years, with the unanimous arbitration award of Rs.
765.78 crores in compensation to Tata Motors payable by WBIDC, one crore in
legal expenses in addition, plus 11% interest from September 1, 2016, till the
money is paid in full. With interest, the compensation to Tata Motors tops Rs.
1,350 crores if it were to be paid today. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The West
Bengal government headed by Mamata Banerjee intends to challenge the award
either in the Calcutta High Court or in the Supreme Court. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">One argument
goes that the initial acquisition of the land was declared illegal later by the
apex court in 2016, as it had failed to meet the requirements of the Land
Acquisition Act 1894, and was ordered to be returned to the farmers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However,
this may have come as too little and too late. The Leader of the West Bengal
Opposition, BJP’s Subhendu Adhikari, has stated that the agricultural land has
been ruined by the works put in by the proposed plant, and <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was rendered unfit thereafter for cultivation
afresh. Industry, as usual, lost out in the bargain.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ironically, the arbitration award with its
resultant bad publicity has come when the West Bengal government is gearing up
for its Global Business Summit shortly on November 21-22. However, previous
business summits have never gone well either, with most pledges and promises
unfulfilled. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The ruling
Trinamool Congress is also battling widespread corruption charges with as many as
five of its ministers under arrest or in jail, and crores in unaccounted money
confiscated by central authorities like the Enforcement Directorate.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,067
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">November
1<sup>st</sup>, 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-52456126869067213762023-10-25T01:47:00.001-07:002023-10-25T01:47:09.009-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Aspirational
Touring Of The US Europe Other Places Had Over 10 crore Indians Spending $ 35
Billion Between 2017 and 2022 Plus Shopping Eating Hotels Sight Seeing- Permanent
Immigration To The US Canada Australia Is Also In Top Gear<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Indian
Middle Class, like the rest of the population, is growing exponentially, with
constant migration to the cities that now includes more than 20 tier 2 cities.
The percentage of the population employed in farming and services in rural
areas is declining in keeping with mechanisation and international trends, even
as rural prosperity is increasing alongside the GDP. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The easy
access to social media, smart phones, streaming, TV, films, has increased
exposure to the outside world to an unprecedented degree amongst all sections
of the population. It is not surprising that most Indians now see the world as
their oyster. Socialism is largely dead, replaced by welfare, aspiration,
education, greater life expectancy, nutrition, health, higher income, and the
realisation that India will soon be the third biggest economy in the world. It
will have more than $ 10 trillion in GDP by 2030. Every day, the road, rail,
air, infrastructure in the country is also being rapidly transformed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Opposition bemoans the unemployment situation and high food prices in the lead
up to multiple elections. They do it so often that one might be forgiven for
thinking that things are going very badly indeed despite Prime Minister Modi
pointing out all the progress we have made in the last 10 years. Progress greater
by far than ever before. But here you have it. Astounding overseas and domestic
tourism figures that cannot happen without money in hand. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Now, in the
second decade of 21<sup>st</sup> century, and post Covid, international travel
seems to have exploded amongst Indians. Who can say there is not enough
disposable income amongst the Indian middle class? A middle class headed
towards a third of the overall population of 1.44 billion. It may be too
disparate <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and opinionated to be a
force<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>in elections, but even that will
change.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Indians
account for 10% of all visa applications at present to countries that require them.
This despite a rupee/US dollar rate of exchange approaching an astronomical Rs.
85 to the dollar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">America with
its B1/B2 visit visas, backed up for more than 400 days for Indians, still had
5.1 lakh <i>desi</i> visitors in the April-June 2023 quarter. Canada sent 26
million visitors to the US, but they don’t need visas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India’s
statistics are just behind the United Kingdom (who don’t need US visas either,
being cousins from across the pond, firm US allies, and former colonial
overlords), at 9.7 million visitors. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Mexico, next
door, sent 7.2 million. Germany (at 4.7 million), and others from Europe, like
the French, sent less tourists to America than the Indians in the April-June 2023
quarter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Similar
things are happening to domestic travel for leisure, pilgrimage, with the
advent of the Vande Bharat trains, great highways, more airports and airlines,
high car ownership. So much so, that the airlines have had to lower their
domestic fares by up to 30% to try and compete with the vastly improved trains.
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Indians have
spent $ 11.44 billion on overseas travel in the nine-month period of the
current fiscal, between April to January. This is not counting shopping, and
sight-seeing, entertaining, hotels, eating and so on, once abroad. This could
easily double this figure if totted up. There is no restriction on how much
foreign currency Indians can take abroad, provided that if it is more than $
10,000 in currency or traveller’s cheques, it must be declared. And then there
are the credit and forex cards. Till February 2023, the figure rose to $12.51
billion, up 104% over the same period last year. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is
estimated that the number of Indians travelling abroad for holidaying will
treble by 2025. That means about 40% of international travellers will be from
India. Its no wonder that Switzerland reckoned Indian tourists were accounting
for two or three percentage points of their economy even two decades ago. It is
why they have welcome boards out for Indians. Many others are following suit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This is now being
further driven by aspirational travel from tier 2 cities and budget carriers.
The well-off, a category being upgraded all the time, will number more than 100
million people by themselves.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Overall,
10.3 crore Indians travelled abroad between 2017 and 2022 with 3.8 crores amongst
them seeking to emigrate or acquire permanent residency in foreign countries
like the US, Canada and Australia. Who are these people? Most of the 18 million
Indian diaspora, the largest in the world, are temporary migrants to West Asia
who remit home most of the USD 100 billion per annum now. Others are students,
most of whom do come back to India.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the 19<sup>th</sup>
century, aristocratic British in the heyday of the British Empire undertook at
least one ‘Grand Tour’ to widen their perspective. It was to the ‘Continent’,
that lasted, in those horse and carriage days, from Paris and Vienna,
Switzerland and Germany to the South, about a year. Lingering in warm, artistic
and cultured Southern Europe, in Italy and Spain, was particularly popular. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Going on the
steam ship to America was also attractive to some, crossing on luxurious ocean
liners to New York. But America, beyond her main cities like New York, Chicago,
Boston, San Francisco, New Orleans, St Louis, and Los Angeles, tended to be
exotic in the 19<sup>th</sup> century. The travel, over vast expanses, by the
newly established train lines, or the horse drawn mail carriage, with armed
guards, or both, was a little dangerous. Much of the hinterland, rivers,
forests, mountains, the wild life, Bisons, the native Red Indians, was still relatively
untamed. The Wild West was not a myth. Many witnessed the Wild Bill Hickock live
travelling shows to form an idea. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Authors,
poets, journalists, extolled the virtues of this travel and destinations for
the others who could not afford it. There was, of course, no TV or radio, let
alone social media. Even photography was relatively new. People relied on
painters and landscape artists.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the 20<sup>th</sup>
century, with the advent of early air travel in the 1930s, again it was the
rich that could afford to go abroad by the smallish aeroplanes that could take
about 30 passengers. The old Victorian era sea-side resorts within Britain had to
suffice for the rest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It was much
the same for Indians. The Maharajahs sailed, some with a year’s supply of Ganga
Jal for their drinking and cooking. Others flew, when the planes presented
themselves, making multiple stops to Europe and back. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>By the latter part of the 20<sup>th</sup>
century, after the two world wars, passenger ships had largely retreated from
the travel map, except for the huge cruise liners, and air travel had been
democratised. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Cheap tickets,
charter aircraft tours, had secretaries and office boys jetting off to Spain
for two weeks. And of course, farther afield to Asia, Africa. But it was still
the province of the affluent West in the beginning. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Later, the
same packaged tours and individually curated visits, some with Indian
vegetarian and Jain cuisine cooks in tow, came to places like India, which were
neither rich, nor had oil to sell for petrodollars. But, nevertheless, the
international travel bug had bitten. If not multiple times at first, certainly
once in a lifetime. If not Europe and America, then certainly Dubai and
Thailand was possible. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In addition, since 2011, more than 1.6 million
have become citizens of foreign countries including 1,83,741 in 2022 alone. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">1,63,370
Indians renounced their citizenship in 2021.Of these 78,284 became US citizens,
followed by Australia 23,533, Canada 21,597, and Britain 14, 637. Of course,
given our population of 1.4 billion plus, the emigration numbers are very small
for us even as they are significant at No.1 for the host countries. Many are
following their relatives already settled abroad. Others are minorities such as
Christians who feel comfortable emigrating to Christian countries in the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First World. Or Jews, the younger of whom
emigrate to Israel. The Anglo-Indians have gone. So have the Armenians. Now
even a few of the young Kolkata Chinese. But the largest minority, nearly 200
million Muslims, have largely stayed put. It is therefore ironical that parts
of the Western media call the present administration communal and anti-Muslim. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">As India
continues to prosper and acquire international influence, the people who want
to renounce their citizenship may decline further, even amongst such pockets. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Times, as Nobel laureate Bob Dylan put it
in his youth, are-a-changing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,393
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">October
25<sup>th</sup> , 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-69692752915748627022023-10-04T06:48:00.002-07:002023-10-04T06:48:26.317-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Always The
Means To Justify The Ends For Indian Communists<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Communist Big Wigs like Sitaram Yechury, were quick to jump to the defence of
Newsclick, a digital website in India financed by Red China to spread anti-India
propaganda. It was recently raided and shut down by the NIA, and its chief
operators taken into custody. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The other
organisation quick off the mark to the same end was Congress, its leader Rahul
Gandhi and the eloquent ex diplomat Shashi Tharoor. They took to X, formerly
known as Twitter, with alacrity. It is rumoured that both the CPI/CPM and the
Congress are also financed by the Chinese now that the Soviets are out of
business. And pleasing one’s benefactors is mandatory.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Both tried
to paint the sedition of Newsclick in terms of an attack on press freedom,
freedom of expression, and called it the action of an Undeclared Emergency by
the ruling dispensation. Various left-leaning journalists decided to sit in the
decrepit Press Club yard in New Delhi on plastic chairs in silent protest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In the
series of efforts, national and international, to destabilise the NDA
government and get rid of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, another programme is in
the works. It is designed to stir the caste cauldron in a manner not seen since
the Mandal Commission Report was released by an opportunist VP Singh 30 years
ago. Fiery protests erupted then, soon after, and made short work of VP Singh’s
prime ministership. But the new effort has learned nothing from that history.
If it backfires, The Hindu voter could cling more desperately to the BJP for
faith and succour.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Nevertheless,
three decades later, Nitish Kumar hanging on to his chief ministership by his
fingernails has released a caste census for Bihar. This is after many failed
initiatives such as his leaky and farcical attempts at prohibition to please
the female voter.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Congress ruled Karnataka may well be next to release
a caste census that will annoy both the Vokkaligas and the Lingayats. Do they
understand the implications? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This follows
on from virulent attacks on Sanatan Dharma by MK Stalin’s son Udhayanidhi
Stalin, and several other DMK ministers. The chief minister of Tamil Nadu
meanwhile provides full support to the process. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">All of it is
meant to attack the monolithic approach to the Hindu vote bank by the BJP. This
has resulted in most Hindus voting for the BJP in 2014 and 2019. The looming
election of 2024 is seen as a do-or-die contest by the opposition combine I.N.D.I.A.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Ayodhya
Ram Temple to be inaugurated in January 2024 is also deeply worrying for the
opposition. So is the possibility of a Uniform Civil Code and One Nation One
Vote all seen to favour the ruling NDA if implemented.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">So now, the
idea is to shatter the perception of a unified Hindu vote bank into many caste
shards. Rahul Gandhi, eager to woo the OBC and Dalit/Mahadalit sections, which
constitute some two-thirds of the total in most states. This is apparently up
from the Mandal Commission’s 52%. He has coined a new slogan -<i>Jitna Abadi, Utna
Huq </i>in more or less record time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">His haste
has quite ignored his, and indeed most of the opposition’s assiduous wooing of
the Muslim minority vote since the very beginning. Prime Minister Narendra Modi
was quick to point this out, and wondered what was to become of the Muslims
under opposition rule. This, even as he promised to look after them as part of
his <i>Sabka Vikas, Sabka Viswas </i>umbrella. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Is I.N.D.I.A
abandoning the maximum of 17% of Muslims nationally, in favour of the 66% of
Hindus under the various backward castes? Is the desire to wrest them away,
particularly the Mahadalits who have been voting en masse for the BJP, now
overwhelming? Or do they believe the Muslims have nowhere else to go anyway? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Can they
possibly succeed? What will their credibility be if they fail, given their poor
grassroots organisation, and not enough time left to make the new pitch stick?
Could it all go horribly wrong, as it did for VP Singh by stirring up the
aspirations of the neglected, without any of them being met? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is true
that reservations have only worked fitfully in all the years they have been
used, with the creamy layer within the caste groups, garnering the benefits.
The concept of any of it reaching the last man has been no more than
theoretically possible so far. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Also
stirring up the demand for reservations may mean reservations for too many for
any of it to be meaningful. Can reservations already given to some be withdrawn
in favour of others? Cutting into reservation blocks, as is the demand from
Congress and others in the Women’s Reservation Bill just passed after 27 years
of wrangling and non -starter attempts, could leave all sides disgruntled.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This entire
caste census and its aftermath, reservations within reservations like so many
Matrushka Dolls, could be the opening of a Pandora’s Box. Many analysts have
begun to point this out.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
Communists have little to lose. They only control Kerala now, and seem in no
danger of losing it. So, taking a Trotskyist line on the means justified by the
intended ends suits them. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Congress is
taking a bigger and wilder gamble and could come unstuck. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">TMC is not
in favour of this caste ploy because it is well entrenched with the Muslim
minority in West Bengal. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">DMK is
strong in Tamil Nadu and has cast the Sanatana Dharma calumny as a contribution
to the I.N.D.I.A alliance for what it is worth, and a sneer at the Cow Belt
North. It does not have ambitions outside the state, and is not receiving any
criticism over this overt attack against high-caste Hindus from its chief rival
the AIADMK. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Besides the
Stalins and others in DMK are quite largely Christian.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Leon Trotsky
was the chief theorist of the early Russian Revolution known for his seeming ideological
flexibility. After the early demise of Lenin soon after the Communists came to
power, the pragmatic Stalin, from peasant and non-intellectual stock, had no
use for Trotsky’s sophistry. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Trotsky
fled to Mexico fearing for his life, but Stalin’s goons found him there and
killed him.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Indian
Communists practice a form of Trotskyism all the time, speaking against caste
and religion when it suits their objective, and the opposite at a time like
this. They feel safe in the knowledge they are unlikely to be assassinated here
in India. So why not exploit the benefits of democracy by calling it the worst
kind of fascism? And why not take from the Chinese when they offer it? <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Trotsky once
said, to paraphrase the cynicism of his thinking, lay out the various lies in
front of me and I will pick out the truth from amongst them. His exact quote
was ‘Tell me anyway-Maybe I can find the truth by comparing the lies’. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Sitaram
Yechury, with the most Hindu of names, a Brahmin as it happens, is not only a
survivor, but a good student of Leon Trotsky.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,168
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">October 4<sup>th</sup>,
2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-52046790541049337102023-09-28T23:48:00.002-07:002023-09-28T23:48:18.235-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">OBITUARY<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">MS
Swaminathan Legendary Agri-Scientist Who Catalysed The Current Grain Surplus
For 1.44 Billion People, Dies At 98<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The
legendary scientist, born in 1925, that transformed an India that was dependent
on wheat shipments as food aid from America, into a food surplus nation, has
just passed away in his home in Chennai at the age of 98. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Lauded on
his demise by the President, Prime Minister, Home Minister and Agriculture
Minister amongst many eminent and ordinary Bharatiyas, Dr. Mankombu <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Sambasivan Swaminathan is succeeded by three highly
educated and accomplished daughters. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Assisted by
the influential American agronomist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Dr. Norman
Ernest Borlaug, the exceptional vision of Dr. MS Swaminathan transformed
India’s staple food yields. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">From near
famine conditions in 1960s Bharat, Dr Swaminathan catalysed the Nehru
Government effort towards the ample production of the ‘Green Revolution’ that
matured fully during the regime of Indira Gandhi as prime minister. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">It all began
with a 100 kg bag of seeds of the Mexican Dwarf Wheat sent to Dr Swaminathan by
Dr Borlaug. From this small beginning, the wheat yields in India grew more than
ten-fold. This was occasioned, after Dr Swaminathan’s conviction in the matter,
and his extensive studies in India and several countries abroad. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">MS
Swaminathan turned down opportunities to work in America, in order to return to
his home country to make what turned out to be his singular contribution. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Swaminathan’s
early and yeoman efforts towards the introduction of high yielding and disease
resistant varieties of wheat, rice, potatoes, and other crops ended the period
of chronic food shortfalls in Bharat once and for all. It is said Ms
Swaminathan chose his profession as a agricultural scientist after noting the
ravages of the Bengal famine in the 1940s.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">MS
Swaminathan recognised the potential of the Mexican dwarf wheat varieties early
in the day, causing Nehru to write to the Rockefeller Foundation that was
financing Dr. Borlaug’s research in Mexico. Swaminathan invited Borlaug to tour
India and see conditions for himself, which Borlaug did in 1964. Thereafter,
the 1970 Nobel laureate sent Swaminathan a bag containing 100 kg of the Mexican
dwarf seed created by Borlaug at the International Centre for Wheat and Maize
improvement in Mexico. Dr Swaminathan’s intent was to breed these with
varieties from Japan. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">By 1956,
Mexico had already become self-sufficient in wheat using Borlaug’s dwarf
varieties, and Swaminathan was convinced Bharat could do likewise.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">On receipt
of the new varieties of wheat, Swaminathan started them on a number of
experimental plots in different places in Bharat and noted their high yields
and disease resistance. Along with his team of scientists, he then organised
large numbers of farmers to plant the new varieties in several parts of the
country but most notably in Punjab. In 1965, the Indian Agriculture Minister C
Subramaniam aided the process by ordering 250 tonnes of the seed.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Swaminathan
also introduced new varieties of potato including a frost resistant variety he
had developed while working in Wisconsin, USA. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">In addition,
Swaminathan developed rice varieties with better carbon fixation which allowed for
improved photosynthesis and water usage.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Dr MS
Swaminathan completed his batchelor’s degree in agricultural science followed
by a postgraduate degree in cytogenetics. He served as the Director General of The
Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) and the International Rice
Research Institute in the Philippines. He also served as the Principal
Secretary in the Ministry of Agriculture in 1979. In 1988 Swaminathan was
appointed President of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Dr MS
Swaminathan won a profusion of national and international awards including the
Ramon Magsaysay Award in 1971, The World Food Prize in 1987 and the Padma
Vibushan in 1989. Swaminathan was awarded scores of honorary doctorates
throughout his active life. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">He was a
pivotal figure for decades in India’s march to not just self-sufficiency in
food, but creation of enormous surpluses for strategic reserves and exports.
This even as the population has more than quadrupled since independence along
with a doubling of life expectancy.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">(653
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">September
29<sup>th</sup>, 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-27390899339524438862023-09-11T00:55:00.002-07:002023-09-11T00:55:26.290-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">KSA Is
Now In The Driving Seat For the Bharat West Asia Europe Corridor Incorporating
Road, Rail, Port ,Digital Connectivity & Backed By The US<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His Royal Highness Mohamed Bin Salman (MBS),
Crown Prince and <i>de facto</i> ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), (on
behalf of his ailing and elderly father King Salman of the Royal House of Saud),
has launched his State Visit to India on the 11<sup>th</sup> of September 2023.
This is his second state visit since February 2019. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This state
visit has come immediately after MBS attended the very successful two-day G21
Summit, concluded on the 10<sup>th</sup>. A number of new agreements are likely
to be signed during the one-day bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Modi at
Hyderabad House in the capital. Bharat and KSA have also become strategic
partners and will be signing the minutes of the first meeting of a strategic
council formed for the purpose. Bharat is presently Saudi Arabia’s second
largest trading partner but the potential to grow it in quantum and volume
terms is considerable. MBS clearly sees this, and is putting his policy heft
behind this endeavour alongside Prime Minister Narendra Modi.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Agreements
on defence, security, trade, services, labour, manufacturing, supply chains, energy,
including alternate and renewable energy, agriculture, food security, digital
technology, Artificial Intelligence (AI), two-way investment programmes,
cooperation in space, are some of the areas that will be covered. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Of course,
the big new development at the G21 Summit is the massive infrastructure project
announced. It was one of the biggest, important and immediately tangible
announcements at the Summit. An integrated road, rail, port, ship, sea and
digitally connected corridor leading from Bharat through West Asia overland as
well as land/sea to Europe, will be commenced within 60 days by all the
countries concerned. It will also link the regions it passes through with
electricity connectivity and incorporate green Hydrogen pipelines.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is
inclusive of, and will involve, most of the countries in the West Asian region
including the UAE, Oman, Jordan, Israel, and then on to Europe by land, as well
as via Port Haifa in Israel and Port Piraeus in Greece. It is a massive project
involving trillions of dollars in investment, expected to come from in-country
resources, multilateral sources such as the World Bank and IMF, some private
investment, all underwritten by the US, which is also a member of the I2U2
strategic initiative. It is likely to earn huge resources as well when
completed. It has the potential of speeding goods movements from Bharat to
Europe by as much as 40%, saving both time and money.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This new set
of integrated routes will be an alternative to the overburdened and out-of-date
Suez Canal. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The KSA was
drifting away from the US after the controversies and criticisms <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>raised against MBS by America after the grisly
murder of dissident Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Turkiye. So much so, that
Saudi Arabia drew closer to China that even brokered a rapprochement between
Iran and Saudi Arabia. The KSA also did Yuan trades with China for its
petroleum exports to the dragon. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">President
Biden therefore looked visibly pleased at the G21 Summit with Bharat’s
initiative of this new Corridor that drew KSA, an old ally, back into the US
sphere of influence. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The new and
momentous announcement threatens the Chinese debt-trap creating Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), and its recent growing influence in West Asia that even
sought to mediate in the KSA War with the Houthi rebels in Yemen.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Soon after
the announcement of this new corridor, G7 member Italy announced its withdrawal
from China’s BRI via its Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, very much present at
the G21 Summit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">From the Bharatiya
perspective, the straws have been in the wind for some time. Adani is already
redeveloping Haifa Port in Israel. Haifa is famous from WWI as the place
liberated by Bharatiya troops working in the British Empire Army. Those brave
mounted soldiers are immortalised in a sculpture facing Teen Murti Bhavan in
New Delhi, which was once the residence of the British Indian Army Chief.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Recently
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a visit to <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Athens, Greece, on his way home from
Johannesburg where he had gone to attend the BRICS Summit. Greece was last
visited by Bharatiya Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, way back, in 1983. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Piraeus Port
development in Greece is also on Adani’s radar. Greece is keen on becoming Bharat’s
gateway to Europe as expressed by Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and
President Karerina Sakellaropoulou during Modi’s day-long recent visit. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Adani
Group has been foremost in modern port development and green infrastructure
projects in Bharat, and even coal-mining in Australia. It has been active throughout
the last ten years, and even earlier, starting with the highly modern Kandla
container handling port and terminus in Gujarat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Indian
Railways has reformed and revived its abilities and could well play a stellar
part in the new West-Asian portion of the corridor.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India’s
Reliance Industries, one of the world’s biggest petroleum refiners, is an early
mover in the area of Hydrogen production and its application in transport
amongst other things.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Officially
called the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), it is being hailed
as a modern-day Spice Route. It is expected to stimulate economic development
throughout the Eurasian corridor. In the European section, participants include
France, Germany, Italy, the US and the EU. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The MoU
drafted at the New Delhi G21 has been signed by India, USA, UAE, Saudi Arabia,
France, Germany, Italy and the European Union.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In an initiative that will enthuse the 55
nation African Union, newly a part of the G21, the United States will
simultaneously invest in a rail line from Angola in Central Africa, to the
Indian Ocean.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">China, that
absented itself from the New Delhi Summit, is not only stymied diplomatically
by these initiatives, it really does not have the money anymore to see its BRI
dreams through as the sole financier. The 146 signatories to the BRI will, no
doubt, begin to abandon it, following Italy’s example.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Saudi Arabia
will play a pivotal role in the West Asian section of the corridor along with
the UAE, Israel and Bharat. But through this back-to-back state visit, MBS who’s
stopped in New Delhi since the 8<sup>th</sup> of September, seeks to expand the
strategic partnership with Bharat into multiple avenues. The endeavour is to
take it far beyond being one of the world’s biggest petroleum producers.
Bharat, on its way to becoming the 3<sup>rd</sup> biggest economy in the world
with a projected GDP of over $10 trillion, is equally keen on the win-win
development.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,074
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">September
11, 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-89627368781087618172023-09-09T00:52:00.002-07:002023-09-09T00:52:13.796-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The G21
New Delhi Summit With 43 Countries -Invitees, Multilateral Institutions, The
Global South & The African Union<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This G21 can
only be seen as Bharat’s unprecedented and spectacular coming- out-party at the
high table bedecked with gleaming silverware. It is hosted by our charismatic
Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has established himself as a significant and
influential global leader. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
attendance underlines the recognition of this country as the unstoppable 3<sup>rd</sup>
largest global power by 2030, with likely a $ 10 trillion plus economy by then.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The first
dramatic accomplishment, at the very start of the deliberations today at this
mighty gathering, was the induction of the 55 country African Union as a
permanent member of the G20 to make it up to G21. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">This
represents the result of not only Bharat’s steadfast sponsorship and advocacy
of this cause, but the recognition of a changing world order. It has been
dominated for long and is still led by the G7 countries. Now they, at the
urging of India, the obsolescence and racism of old methods, are willing to
change. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The economic and political world
order has remained almost unchanged since WWII with the West in the driver’s
seat. However, the emergence of ancient and modern countries like Bharat that
believes in its inclusive and peaceful principles has made an impact. Amongst
Prime Minister Modi’s many ‘one world’ coinages, he uses the term ‘Humancentric’
which seems to resonate with other leaders. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">In a counter
to Chinese neo-imperialism, institutions like the World Bank and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) are going to receive a $ 200 billion
injection announced by the United States. Terms will be renegotiated to offer
better lending formats to the African Union and other countries of the Global
South, groaning under massive and unsupportable debt. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">African
countries have had to pay as much as five times as much for its multilateral
loans which have ended up badly roiling their economies. China has in recent
years exploited this anomaly with rapacious terms for <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>their development loans. These were extended,
sometimes to access rich mineral resources, and at other times to push China’s
Belt and Road Programme (BRI). Almost all of it however has been bogged down as
bad debt because there is little bankability of these developments. It has, in
turn, been putting immense pressure on the Chinese economy as well. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The most
powerful and significant countries of the world are all here in New Delhi for
the two-day summit, with two notable exceptions. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">President
Putin preoccupied with the Ukraine War, sent his venerable Foreign Minister
Lavrov. President Xi Jinping, probably occupied with immense domestic economic ‘turmoil’,
as characterised by senior members of the ruling CCP, sent Premier Li who is
well known for his economic management. However this came unstuck with his
disastrous handling of the severe lockdowns in major Chinese cities during
Covid. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Both Russia
and China heads, seen as ever closer allies, stayed away from the recent ASEAN Summit
in Jakarta as well.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The United
States, represented in New Delhi by President Joe Biden has expressed disappointment
with China’s no-show. Its tacit and active support to Russia in the conduct of
the Ukraine War, along with its belligerent satellite North Korea, is of
particular concern. America has also criticised China’s latest bizarre ‘standard
map’ that not only claims various territories in India and along the South
China Sea, but seeks to disrupt the ‘rules-based-world-order’.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A number of
affected countries at ASEAN, and here at the G20 Summit, along with Bharat,
have condemned the new Chinese map and China’s attempt at muscle flexing. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Bharat pulled
out all the stops to set the environs with flowers and fountains, a spanking
new state-of-the-art venue, the host hotels tricked out to be at the top of
their game, the approaches, monuments, selected shopping locations, Bharat’s
proud digital accomplishments and processes, enormous security preparations,
were all decked out in celebratory mode. This comes at the culmination of some
40 meetings of the G20 spread out all over the country. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Inside and
outside the summit venue, Bharat’s 5,000 plus year old history and culture was
showcased. It was replete with magnificent statues of a number of Hindu Gods. Prime
Minister Modi received the honoured guests in front of a replica of the Konarak
Wheel from the Sun Temple in Odisha. A massive 27 feet high dancing Nataraja
made of <i>Ashtadhatu</i>, fronts the G20 venue dubbed a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Bharat Mandapam.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">There is
considerable consensus on matters like Climate Change, alternate energy
development, and opportunities for the Global South. But the Ukraine War has
the US and the G7 countries in a mood to insert a critical reference against
Russia in the Declaration expected at the end of the Summit tomorrow the 10<sup>th</sup>
of September 2023. Russia says a political reference has no place in a G21
economic summit.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Russia, of
course, sees the Ukraine War very differently. China and India are not willing
to condemn Russia unilaterally for their own reasons. India has called for
dialogue to resolve the conflict and has long been saying for long that this is
not a time for War. At this summit, Prime Minister Modi referred to a ‘trust
deficit’ without once mentioning Ukraine, implying a solution can be found
through dialogue.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
paragraph on Ukraine has been left blank by the Sherpas working on the draft
declaration. This even as nuanced drafting aimed at a consensus is continuing.
Will this scuttle a joint declaration at the end of the summit?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India has
had both the USSR and its successor Russia as a steadfast ally and friend for
decades, and some 50% of its military equipment is of Russian/Soviet origin.
This has been complemented with sourcing from the US, France, Israel in recent
years, and more and more emphasis on <i>aatmanirbhar</i> or joint venture
manufacturing in Bharat.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">If there is
an element of peevishness and desire to steal India’s thunder that has caused
Chinese President Xi Jinping to stay away from this summit, and the one in
Jakarta, it is probably working against China. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Without Xi
Jinping adding his sour glowering presence, displayed recently at Johannesburg
for the BRICS Summit, there is no great loss. At Johannesburg, the addition of
nine new members through consensus amongst the five existing members, by 1<sup>st</sup>
January 2024 did nor quite go per the Chinese plan. It robbed China of its
desire to dominate the forum with just two or three additions of its own
choice. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Chinese
government mouthpieces such as The Global Times seem to be portraying the
Chinese mood today, with its sniping against the New Delhi summit from Beijing.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The question
in many minds is just how much trouble is Xi Jinping in, given his poor
handling of the Chinese economy and his diplomatic wolf warrior tactics that
has almost every country exasperated. He has been called out by his mentor
amongst others, and under pressure, has attempted to deny responsibility for
the current state of affairs.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The G21 has
also announced a railway-based land/port connectivity project involving Saudi
Arabia, the UAE, the US and Bharat. This new initiative is also likely to check
growing Chinese influence in West Asia.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Brazil will
take over the leadership of the G21 after the 10<sup>th</sup> of September for
the next year. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Prime
Minister Modi is working through as many as 15 bilateral meetings and some pull-asides
during these three days, ever since the leaders started to arrive on 8<sup>th</sup>
September. The bilateral with the US reportedly will advance defence
cooperation and joint venturing beyond the GE 414 fighter engine deal with 80%
technology transfer, and those for the Predator drones. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The one with
Bangladesh illustrates the most successful relationship with a neighbouring
country. Various others will each advance Bharat’s strategic partnership with its
counterparts.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Initiatives
to corner economic fugitives, confiscate their properties and freeze their bank
accounts are likely to be internationally agreed. Bharat’s digital payment
systems may be adopted by as many as a dozen countries. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Amongst all
this, the retreat of China from the reformist gathering, despite the presence
of Premier Li, may well be marking a watershed moment. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,332
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">September
9<sup>th</sup>, 2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-39847470357115408892023-08-23T01:51:00.002-07:002023-08-23T01:51:44.756-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">India
Assumes Centre-Stage In BRICS As China Loses Influence<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">It is ironic
that China should now be playing second-fiddle to India in both the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. This is not admitted to by either
side, but perceptually it is increasingly evident. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">India held
the rotating chair in the SCO for a year most successfully till it ended
recently, and appears to be dominating the agenda at the BRICS Summit in
Johannesburg too. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">So much so,
that while India’s Narendra Modi pointed out that it will soon be a $ 5
trillion economy open to do business with the Global South and others, Xi
Jinping of China did not make a speech, and stayed away from the Business
Session attended by the other three. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">President
Putin joined in virtually from Moscow. This is the first in-person Summit of
BRICS since 2019. Prime Minister Modi called India the growth engine of the
world in an unabashed pitch to over 40 countries present, and the global
audience via coverage of the three-day event ongoing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Russia is
represented by its highly experienced Foreign Minister Lavrov. It complained,
as expected, about the Western sanctions imposed on it, but pledged support to
the Global South, and Africa in particular. If President Putin was referring to
grain shipments, Africa will note that those too were disrupted more than once.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">India is
more credible in this matter, because of its timely help with vaccines during
the Covid pandemic, while most others, including the rich Western countries,
hoarded their own supplies. Its treatment of the many additional invitees to
the G20 Summit approaching its climax next month is also much appreciated by
the Global South and indeed most of the G 7 as well including Japan and France.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Xi did
attend the retreat for the heads of government, but, reading between the lines,
did not make any headway with China’s bid to expand the BRICS line- up
immediately. China wants to form a larger block to rival the domination of the
‘Global Commons’ regime, helmed by the US. However, previous attempts ranging
from the post-colonial Non-Aligned movement to the G 15 have never been
effective. A line-up of about 45 countries in BRICS is unlikely to do any
better.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">This
‘Commons’ regime refers to the dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve
currency, the SWIFT system as the international method of banking money flows,
free and open access to the trade waterways of the high seas. It also includes
America’s established hold on a number of global institutions, defence
cooperation-oriented organisations, such as NATO, AUKUS and QUAD. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Any attempt
to go beyond talking about a BRICS currency is unrealistic. India has made
headway in trading bilaterally in local currencies with a number of countries,
but this too is hampered with not enough presence in global trade. As India’s
economy grows, the rupee will gain greater acceptance in international trade,
said<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Columbia University professor and
economist Arvind Panagariya in a recent article. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">China, by
way of contrast, could not properly float its external Yuan as an exchange
currency and has been struggling to make something of the Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), an Asia-Pacific based trade pact,
akin to a common market. Many in it are chafing at direction from China which
tends to advantage it, and India, of course, has refused to join just as it
refused to join China’s Belt and Road initiative. This was prescient because it
has severely stressed or bankrupted those who have. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">India, under
Modi, since 2014, has been joining and participating in other regional meetings
of organisations such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
These are influential, but not subject to outright Chinese domination. It is
also making every effort in BIMSTEC, particularly with Bangladesh and Sri
Lanka, the successor, more or less to SAARC, that has been stymied by Pakistan.
Relations with Nepal too are getting better with its infatuation with Chinese
Communism on the decline.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">India is trying
hard to reduce its trade with, and investment from, China. Moves like the
licencing of the manufacture of laptops and other electronic items is a step in
this direction. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Given the
eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation of over 50,000 troops with massive deployment
of military equipment on each side along the Line of Actual Control (LaC), the
relationship between India and China is not good. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Intrusions
and illegal holding of perceived Indian territory in Eastern Ladakh, actual
skirmishes and clashes in Ladakh and in Arunachal Pradesh, make up an adverse
list, alongside Chinese training, arming and funding of multiple insurgencies
in India. Chinese encouragement of Pakistani terrorism is also a huge problem,
as is its blocking of Indian initiatives against terrorists in the UN. China
has also blocked Indian membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Chinese
companies that have been operating in India have been caught evading taxes and
breaking rules. Most Chinese companies are now banned from making investments
in India. China itself has also broken international trading rules after
joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO). <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Indian
diplomacy has been candid in stating the relationship with China is at present
not normal and cannot be given the circumstances. Even today China is regularly
menacing the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and Japan in its near neighbourhood. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Against this
backdrop, the possibility of a bilateral meeting at Johannesburg between Prime
Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping is unlikely and rather
pointless. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">However,
both are conducting many bilateral meetings with the other BRICS members and over
40 invited countries, many of whom want to join BRICS.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Prime
Minister Narendra Modi in Johannesburg also called for the building of a
‘resilient supply chain’ a diplomatic code also used by the Americans to reduce
dependence on China. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">China, on
its part complained rather bitterly of US ‘hegemony’, and hostility towards the
poorer countries of the Global South. While this may seem incongruous in a
BRICS Summit, perhaps it is trying to claw-back some vestiges of its global
image that has taken a severe battering of late. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Not only is China
regarded as the villain of the piece with regard to the global Covid pandemic
that has taken millions of lives, but its plummeting economy, huge
unemployment, collapsing companies, and chronic belligerence has<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>put off most of the world. African countries
have been expelling the Chinese for their arrogant, racist, and predatory ways.
Most of the world is losing faith with China’s ambitions given its sharp
decline.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The only
economy that is growing strongly amongst the five present members of BRICS is
India’s. And India has apparently persuaded the other two present, namely
Brazil’s Lula da Silva and South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa to agree to a process
for expanding the BRICS line-up first.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">The
Shanghai-based BRICS Bank, formally known as the New Development Bank, has
failed to rival the major US backed multilateral lending institutions such as
the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The Asian Development
Bank (ADB) and others. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">India is a
darling to these institutions, with its approximately 7 % GDP growth year on
year. It is called a ‘beacon of hope’ in a world troubled economically at
present. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">President
Biden has stated that he considers India to be the most important country to
him, in the backdrop of this BRICS Summit, and will be visiting New Delhi
shortly between 7-9 September for the G 20 Summit, along with a host of other
heads of government. His announced agenda at the G20 is to condemn Russia for
the Ukraine War.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This 15<sup>th</sup> Summit of BRICS was
preceded by Prime Minister Modi pointing out the need to identify new areas of
cooperation.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Prime
Minister Modi will go on to Greece on the 25<sup>th</sup> from South Africa for
a day long visit on his return path to India. Greece is offering a gateway to
Europe for India, even as it has been interacting closely with rival China in
recent years after its economy went bankrupt and was rescued by its membership
of the EU and massive new loans. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Like the
rivalry in BRICS and SCO, India and China will continue to compete with each
other in the global arena, and in economy-oriented organisations like these.
This will have multiple effects on the geopolitics of the world, but India’s
economy, much smaller than China as present, is assured of medium to long-term
success. This is mainly because of an alignment with America and its Western
allies that give it an edge in security matters. Its largely aatmanirbhar
economy, backed by strong domestic demand and proportionate exports, is poised
to make it become the 3<sup>rd</sup> biggest in the world by 2028-2030. After
that its numbers won’t stay very much smaller than those of the Chinese economy,
presently at No.2.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">(1,446
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">August 23<sup>rd</sup>,
2023</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">For: Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 106%;">Gautam
Mukherjee</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-90346241329932101402023-08-12T00:08:00.002-07:002023-08-12T00:08:34.901-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">A
Shambolic Debut On the National Stage For the Opposition Alliance of 26 Parties<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Now that the
Monsoon Session of Parliament has ended in the old building while the new one
awaits use after its inauguration; we could talk about the A.L.L.I.A.N.C.E
coming-out party. It took the form of a farcical No Confidence Motion that was
a damp squib. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The
ostensible reason was to force the prime minister to speak out on the troubles
in Manipur. What the Opposition alliance did not bargain for is that the
treasury benches would wipe the floor with them on matters including Manipur,
but much more in an adverse vein particularly against the Congress. Home
Minister Amit Shah’s two-hour explanation with detailed facts and figures on
what is being done by the government in Manipur gave a comprehensive report not
only to the ill-prepared opposition but the nation at large. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Much
hysteria was displayed by this opposition with its single point agenda,
including some trademark childishness from the SC restored Rahul Gandhi, and a
banshee like performance by Mohua Moitra from the TMC. There was another
bull-in-a-china shop effort by Derek O Brien from the self-same party also, but
this was in the Rajya Sabha. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The prime
minister spoke last in reply, and rendered a masterful and magisterial speech
of over one-and-a-half hours. This was on parliamentary history, the shameless
projection of the ‘parivaar’ over every other contributor towards
nation-building, the consistent shortcomings of the Congress Party in its
handling of the North East, the accomplishments of his own government in nine
years, the naked power-hungriness of the opposition alliance, and Manipur specifically
too. It was so searing in its content that the Opposition alliance shuffled out
of the Lok Sabha like so many convicts in a chain gang. They came back for the
voting, but they might as well not have bothered. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Adhiranjan
Chowdhury, once a fiery street speaker cum rabble-rouser from West Bengal, and since
a prominent leader in the Lok Sabha for Congress, was suspended till a Privileges
Committee goes into the matter. Likewise, AAP’s Raghav Chadha, who apparently
forged the signatures of four MPs from other parties for an intended Select
Committee that never took off. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Derek O Brien
was suspended too, but allowed back in later by the Rajya Sabha Chairman
Jagdeep Dhankar.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The entire
three-day tamasha was televised on most Indian news channels and analysed every
evening by expert panellists and despairing anchors who might have hoped for a
less unequal fight. As usual, the vitriol continued through the wounded Congress
spokespersons. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">After it was
all over in parliament, one broadly pro-Congress channel even put out a
confused poll. Because the polled, who might have been opposition supporters,
were still unable to say much in favour of the opposition alliance. I.N.D.I.A
is scheduled to meet again in Mumbai at the end of August, but it is likely the
AAP will skip it. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">What did
this No-Confidence Vote exercise achieve? It certainly made the government and
the treasury benches look much better than their accusers. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Will it
contribute towards the winnability of the I.N.D.I.A Alliance in the forthcoming
assembly elections and the general elections in 2024? Doubtful. It was, in fact
a disastrous first outing.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The return
of Rahul Gandhi to parliament as a for-the-time-being restored MP, complicates
the pitch for other prime ministerial aspirants in the opposition alliance.
Nitish Kumar has reportedly managed to secure the post of Convenor as a
stepping stone for his own bid. There are doubts being expressed by some
analysts on the cohesion of I.N.D.I.A till the general elections. In Bihar, the
JDU/JDS combine may not sustain in one piece. Will both bits stick with the opposition
alliance if a break up does occur?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The Congress
needs to up its Lok Sabha seat tally to at least 100 MPs in order to become the
undeniable anchor. While it is the only party with pan-India recognition in the
combine, its electoral prospects are not inspiring. Rahul Gandhi’s visibility
may have increased since the Bharat Jodo Yatra but his vision for India is a
retrograde one. He merely wants to preserve the Nehruvian Idea of India. His
own contribution seems to a sharp tilt towards the minorities, including the
extremists amongst them. The Congress Party links with China and Pakistan are
also exposed and fairly obvious. Rahul Gandhi is travelling to Europe once
again in September to drum up support from more anti-Modi forces. He will, no
doubt, also describe conditions in Indian democracy in the most dire terms. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">It is
unlikely that the Indian voter, beyond the Congress’ fairly narrow supporter
base, will take kindly to this strategy. More so, when it is contrasted with
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s highly effective global diplomatic outreach, supported
ably by the External Affairs Minister, and increasingly, the National Security
Adviser.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">India’s
continued rise as an economic power and reliable partner is being seen as an
alternative to a declining China, for trade, manufacturing, and defence
purposes. Even the leadership of BRICS, started originally alongside China.
Russia, Brazil, is turning more towards India for its future direction and
induction of likely additional members, such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia. BRICS
is no longer keen to push the Chinese agenda, if it ever was, with its aim to
dominate America, while others in the combine were expected to fall-in with it.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">The lack of
a national and global vision in the opposition alliance beyond the overthrow of
the BJP and NDA is going to hurt its prospects. It sometimes talks of
unemployment, price rise, per capita income, cronyism, but does not sustain it.
Neither does it have any solutions. It bases its campaigns on AAP style
freebies, which resonate with the poor in the voting public. But they invariably
have trouble fulfilling promises and sustain development if voted to power. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">However, ten
years in power at the Centre is bound to throw up a certain amount of
anti-incumbency for the ruling NDA. On the plus side, Narendra Modi’s personal
popularity, charisma, and commitment to the nation, will counterbalance this.
Prime Minister Modi, who will be 75 in 2025, is in good health and likely to
complete another five-year term in office to execute his vision. He has
repeatedly pledged that India will be the No.3 economy in the world by 2028,
and will do everything possible to keep the momentum towards this objective. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">At present,
the chances of a third consecutive term with a majority in favour of the BJP
and the NDA seem very bright. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">(1,074
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">August 12<sup>th</sup>,
2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">For:
Firstpost/News18<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-63782088280471267512023-07-29T03:27:00.000-07:002023-07-29T03:27:01.977-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Will Additional
Global Conflict In Europe & Between China And America Catapult India
Forward?<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">What is the Space-Eye-view of our situation on earth? Or can one only
see a golf ball sized planet in just this one galaxy? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Space is the new frontier. Exploration, intended exploitation of
minerals, the search for water, territory fit to inhabit, possible space wars,
all loom large. It is shaping up to be much more than sending up satellites to
watch the earth and facilitate communications. More than the to-ing and fro-ing
of tourists on spaceships and putting in space stations for research. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Are we actually in a space race from the same earthly motivations of
power play? That same ‘March of Nations’ postulated by the complex 19th century
German thinker and philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>His Hegelian Dialectic, about the rubbing against
each other, of nations, was a far grander concept than that of the unemployed theoretician
Marx. Karl Marx (1818-1883), lifted the concept of the Hegelian Dialectic and
corrupted it, into a mere tussle between Labour and Capital.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Hegel said the history of the world is moved forward by different
dominant nations at different times. Certainly, we can see how the once mighty
Romans did so. And more recently, the British Empire, growing ever more extensive
till the sun never set on it. But right within it, at its zenith, the seeds of
change were planted. This was in the reign of Queen Victoria. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The royal families of Europe were populated by the several Germanic sons
and daughters of Queen Victoria and their cousins. Of these, a notable rivalry
grew between her heir-apparent and eldest son Bertie, The Price of Wales
(1841-1910), who became Edward VII after her, and the last Kaiser of Germany,
Wilhelm II (1859 -1941), who reigned from 1888 to 1918, when he had to abdicate.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Germany wanted dominion over Western Europe and the high seas of the
world. And after Queen Victoria died in 1901, at the end of a reign spanning 63
years and 216 days, this rivalry sharpened, as both countries prepared for war.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This rivalry was neither ordinary or harmless. It was reminiscent of
that described in the monumental Indian epic, the Mahabharata. The one that
destroyed the Kshatriya regal domination forever. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">There was enormous jealousy in Germany, and a desire to turn the tables
on Britain. This turned into friction in the first decade of the 20<sup>th</sup>
century when Bertie became Edward VII. WWI came as early as 1914, with the
spark ignited at Sarajevo when Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir presumptive
to the throne of Austria, was assassinated by Gavrilo Princip, a 19 year-old
member of Young Bosnia. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The events that followed in rapid succession<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>would change the entire landscape of Europe
irrevocably. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Besides the Archduke, the first of the European royals to leave the
stage was another cousin of Edward VII, the absolute monarch, Tsar of the
Russias, Nicholas II. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Tsar Nicholas II, the last of the Romanovs, ruled from 1894, till he was
overthrown (1917), and assassinated with his entire family by the members of
the Bolshevik Revolution (1918). This was a profound development, because
Imperial Russia was the largest and richest country in Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The fun-loving Bertie, almost forever the Prince of Wales, became Edward
VII but not for long. His short reign of just under a decade did not permit him
to personally witness the start of WWI, or the deposition and murder of his
cousin Nicholas. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The period from the dawn of the 20<sup>th</sup> century, saw cataclysmic
changes for the old order. It went on right till the end of WWII in 1945. In these
45 years, the world order was altered drastically. Millions of people of all
races and creeds from Europe and the Empire were killed in the two world wars. And
for both wars, the March of Nations chose Germany as the main protagonist. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">1901-45 witnessed the end of agrarianism as the basis of the world
economy. It decimated the ranks of the aristocracy that generally led in war
from the front. It ended inflation that had stayed incomprehensibly rock solid
at just 4% over a hundred years. It practically finished the gold standard. It buried
slavery and colonialism. It heralded the death of Empire and the Imperial Age. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">In short, it ushered in the take-over of a much more egalitarian,
democratic, industrial and mercantilist era, based on new products and
technology seen for the first time. The pulse of the world quickened, and the globe
began to grow smaller. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">America became the greatest, most powerful, and wealthy country in the
world. The post WWII order held for decades, with the Western and Soviet Blocks
competing for dominance. This was surely the third coming of the March of Nations,
with America emerging as the dominant global power. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The challenge from the Soviet block eventually proved unequal to the
task, as the Warsaw Pact broke down, and the Berlin Wall was demolished, before
the USSR itself was dismantled. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Communism revived though, via the rise of China, aided and abetted for
decades by America, creating its own Frankenstein monster in the process. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">But the promise of the Communist Internationale and World dominion died early
with the demise of the Soviet Union. But does China under Xi Jinping, a
revivalist Mao Zedong in temperament, realise it? In this hubris, like that of
Kaiser Wilhelm II and Adolf Hitler, lie the seeds of its own destruction. The
March of Nations has caused China to rub up against the West, but it will be
lost at sea because it is not destined to rule the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The baton truly passed from a Pax Britannica, after a paroxysm of blood,
to a Pax Americana. Both echo a long ago Pax Romana that lasted 200 years
between 27 BC and 180 AD centred in Rome in the West, before passing on to
Constantinople for another 200 years.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">We are now on the brink of a new phase of the Hegelian march, minus
China in the ascendant. The nuclear deterrent is still holding since WWII, but
the first war in Europe has arrived in over seventy years. This is not with the
USSR, as might have been expected, but its rump, the Russian Republic. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">This is proving most debilitating for the NATO/EU/allied countries.
Inflation is rampant. Growth is down. Unemployment stalks the streets. This
even though it is a proxy war via the Ukrainians. The stubborn Russian
Federation refuses to yield. The West won’t give it what it wants. But the
prolongation of the conflict is drawing Russia ever closer into a Chinese
embrace. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The most destabilising and dangerous thing about the war in Ukraine is
that it <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ostensibly goes <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>much beyond it. The West is determined to
destroy Russian power once and for all. While Russia, a huge country and a
formidable military power, in alliance with China, its satellite North Korea
and a much-debilitated Pakistan, is doing its best to resist. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Pakistan, long used to being subsidised by America and then China, will
be the first of the three to break into pieces, because of its enormous
mountain of debt. This could come even before the end of the present decade. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">China will lose its proxy partner in its battle for domination of India,
weakening it. This, even as its own economy, grown from nothing by its dependence
on exports to the West is also reeling under enormous debt. The Chinese economy
is destined to keep getting worse as the world no longer trusts it. Its supply
chains are moving to other countries, including India. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The resultant economic turmoil amongst the people of China will cause
them to challenge the CPC once again. This time it won’t be easy to put down.
This unrest could lead to a break up of China as well, starting with all
territories beyond the Han heartland. This is likely in the early 2030s. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">But perhaps not before China tries to dominate the situation by going to
war with America. The spark will probably be lit over its attempted invasion of
Taiwan and blockading of the South and East China Seas. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">No nuclear weapons will still be used because of its guaranteed zero-sum
game. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">China will, of course, lose the conventional war with America and its
allies which include the QUAD, AUKUS and NATO. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Russia will descend into a less influential power post this debacle,
with the loss of its Chinese ally, just as the West intends. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">India meanwhile will develop into a substantial military power over the
next decade, and be able to defend its borders against China and Pakistan. The
latter may also attempt another war, egged on by China. But this will only
hasten its break-up. PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan will return to the Indian fold. America
will diplomatically, via its intelligence services, and militarily, back India,
along with its Western allies, in taking over PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. Not
only do the territories belong to it in the first place, but America will back
India in delivering a body blow to both Pakistan and China. This would be
accomplished without America having to put its boots on the ground. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">China’s CPEC, already in economic trouble, will fail with the loss of
PoK. The Siachen Glacier and Chinese roads to Tibet will be compromised. The
damaging of access to Tibet will be the beginning of its eventual liberation in
the 2030s.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The shape of things to come is evident, as India is being created into a
sophisticated fighting force by the West with its liberal transfer of high
technology in defence. It is also being supported in other areas such as
semiconductors and Artificial Intelligence. This will certainly strengthen
India by filling in the gaps and chinks. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For the West, it will place a formidable
fighting force across the bows of a belligerent China that has fought no real
wars. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">India will participate in and oversee the defence of the Indian Ocean,
the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Malacca Straits. It will join hands
with the QUAD/AUKUS and France to defend <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>South Asia<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>and the Asia-Pacific.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">When all this is over in less than a decade from today, India will truly
emerge as a legitimate super power. Will it be leading the March of Nations? <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will certainly reach No.3 economy status,
or is it No.2, with a vast increase both in GDP and influence. America will
retain its position at No.1 and its technological ascendancy in the world.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">The intervening period will be dominated by the BJP in power throughout,
carried over the threshold in 2024 by the visionary and charismatic Narendra
Modi. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Longer term, the present challenges to its emergence as a Hindu Rashtra
that carries its minorities with humanity and justice will fall away for good
under his successors.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">(1,787 words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">July 29<sup>th</sup>,
2023<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;">Gautam
Mukherjee<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-56261569068763994232023-07-26T03:50:00.002-07:002023-07-26T03:50:35.071-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">NDA Vs
I.N.D.I.A. Is Majoritarian Nationalism Plus Economic Prosperity Against Liberal
Minorityism & Classic Socialism<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">While the
film version of pink and sky-blue hued Barbie is trumping Oppenheimer in the
United States box office takes, it is Oppenheimer, the biographical thriller
written and directed by Christopher Nolan, that is leading in India. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">The
reference to a phrase from the Bhagavad Gita, the revered Hindu text that
Oppenheimer read compulsively to overcome his moral dilemma at becoming the
instrument of so much death and destruction, may have something to do with the
interest in India. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Both Robert
Oppenheimer, a Jew, and Werner Heisenberg, gentile, a Lutheran Christian, set
about building the world’s first nuclear bomb using their knowledge quantum
physics.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Heisenberg
was one of the youngest people to win the Nobel prize for Physics in 1931. He
had authored The Uncertainty Principle on the behaviour of sub-atomic particles
in 1927. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Robert
Oppenheimer succeeded in building the atomic bomb at the head of a crack team
of scientists tucked away in Los Alamos, New Mexico, on behalf of America and
its Allies. His motivation, ostensibly was to end the war, in which he
definitely succeeded, though the question remains whether the use of an atomic
bomb, or two of them, was actually necessary to this end. The decision was
President Harry S Truman’s, a former general himself, and not Oppenheimer’s, of
course.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Heisenberg
worked on behalf of Nazi Germany, but was apparently a patriot and not a Nazi.
He could not, or it is suggested, deliberately did not, build the Nazi bomb,
even though the Nazi programme started first in 1938. Heisenberg and his team
of scientists steered their work towards peaceful nuclear reactors to produce
energy instead. It is also suggested that the resources needed, beyond 1200
tons of uranium supplied from occupied Belgium, could not be provided in 1942,
when the go-ahead for the bomb was received, by a beleaguered Germany.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Werner Karl
Heisenberg lived on after the war till 1976, when he died in Munich, regarded
till the end as a brilliant man of science. A man who did not build the bomb
out of conviction, though his theoretical science, in the very home of quantum
physics, was ahead of all others. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">This, while
Julius Robert Oppenheimer, in America, who also began his mission to build the
bomb in 1942, became a haunted man, a pariah as ‘the father of the atomic
bomb’. This, after the extent of the devastation wrought from his deadly
invention became known. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Oppenheimer
was always suspected of Communist sympathies, and this combined with his
post-war advocacy against nuclear proliferation, the development of the
hydrogen bomb, the nuclear arms race with the Soviet Union, and so on, became a
basis for the American power establishment to turn their backs on him. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">They also
threw him out of coveted university and organisational positions. Oppenheimer
still continued to lecture, write and work in physics till the end. He died at
the age of 62 in 1967, having been largely reinstated in the graces of the
American government, by 1963. He remains, in his legacy, one of the most
important figures of the 20<sup>th</sup> century.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Oppenheimer’s
success led to the dropping of two nuclear bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in
Japan by the Americans with months of his proof-of-concept explosion in the Los
Alamos desert named Trinity. This effectively led to the surrender of Imperial
Japan. Nazi Germany also surrendered in 1945, thereby bringing WWII to a close.
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">It is seen
therefore, from this revived and current tale, how closely success and failure
resemble each other. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India is now
on a fated path towards the next general election, most likely between March
and May 2024. The next eight to ten months will determine whether the Indian
electorate gives a third consecutive term to Narendra Modi and the 38-member
National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Or will it choose the 27-party opposition
combine newly named Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.).
The NDA currently has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha and a near
majority in the Rajya Sabha too. The opposition combine has approximately 144
seats in the Lok Sabha. Another 91 MPs who sit across the aisle from the NDA
are neutral though they often vote along with the NDA on a case-to-case basis.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">If the NDA
is elected with a clear majority once again for the third consecutive time,
then the present policies will receive the boost of continuity. Their plus
points principally are a robust, mostly majoritarian nationalism, attention to
national defence, infrastructure development, manufacturing, trade, welfarism,
and steady, all round economic growth. Inclusiveness, as in Sabka Vikas, Sabka
Prayas, is a stated objective, but while government programmes are not
discriminatory, it remains to be seen how much of an electoral draw this stance
engenders in the polls.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">On the other
side, the opposition combine is a rickety construct of contradictions
united<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>mostly in its desire to oust the
present dispensation. It is something of a do-or-die situation for this combine
which accounts for one unrest or the other in these months up to the elections.
There are foreign forces in alignment with this opposition who do not relish
the continuance of a strong Hindu nationalist government. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">While
largely made up of regional parties, some of whom such as the DMK, TMC, AAP,
JDU/RJD are in power - in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab and Bihar
respectively, most are not. There are multiple contradictions. The CPI(M) are
opposed to the TMC in West Bengal, but are in power in Kerala. The Congress is
in power in Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and are a
coalition partner in Jharkhand. This, could, of course, grow in the forthcoming
assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere to be held before the
general elections. How many seats this large combine gets in the new Lok Sabha,
and from where, will determine the prime ministerial candidate. Congress is
clearly ahead of all others, and will be, if all goes well, in pole position to
nominate the future prime minister, should I.N.D.I.A. come within striking
distance of a cobbled-together majority. It will work on a common minimum
programme.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Past
experience shows that unless there is an anchoring party with about 150 seats,
such coalitions rapidly collapse in a matter of a few months. Besides, should
the NDA be forced to sit on the opposition benches, it will be hyperactive to
try and bring the ruling coalition down at the earliest.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">As for its
economics and politics, it is certain to favour the minorities whose votes the
opposition combine is likely to get in large numbers, and reward them with
populist sops. This will affect the momentum of the economy but make for
happier voters. Much of the liberal socialist ethos pushed aside by the NDA
will be quickly restored. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Democracy
works on the will of the people and therefore either continuity or change,
including a change that seeks to go back a distance to what it considers first
principles, will have to be accepted. The present wisdom suggests the
opposition has little chance of coming to power, but the upset of 2004 when
India was ostensibly shining cannot be forgotten.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>(1,184 words)</b></span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">July 26<sup>th</sup>,
2023</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Gautam
Mukherjee</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-486050260199122441.post-80322618764650704962023-07-13T06:25:00.002-07:002023-07-13T06:25:36.984-07:00<p> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Chandrayaan
3 Moonshot and French Bastille Day on Friday 14 July Are Momentous For India<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India is
decidedly going places. This is to the pain and horror of the poison press
amongst the Leftists in the West. The garish <i>desi</i> dreamers who want a return
to the pretentious past of the rosebud wearing Nehru are also frustrated. And,
of course, the disgruntled types from our second largest majority, who look
like they just ate the <i>Bhut Jalokia</i>, said to be the hottest pepper in
the world. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Fact is,
India under Hindu Nationalist Narendra Modi is not a communal morass. It has
better fish to fry, and is indeed going places. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">A Goldman
Sachs survey, driven by the idea that a young growing population signals prosperity,
says the Indian GDP will be at $52.5 trillion in 2075, putting it at No.2,
behind China, but up from the 3<sup>rd</sup> position it is likely to secure by
2028 or 2030. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">And over the
next two decades, or 2043, ‘the dependency ratio of India will be one of the
lowest among regional economies’, according to the report. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">And the
enhanced prosperity won’t come from discoveries of oil, gold, or other natural
resources, but from capital investment, innovation, technology, and the
demographic dividend.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">In fact, the
decline of the West is due to depleting and ageing population and lower
productivity, according to the report.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">One clue on
the billions and trillions to come to India, is in low to high end chip
manufacturing and testing. Other promising areas involve digital and artificial
intelligence universes. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India could
well become the next global semiconductor hub, replacing the always
under-threat Taiwan. Taking chip making away to America renders it too
expensive. The semiconductor Industry in India is being set up by the
Americans, the Taiwanese, the Indians themselves, the Europeans, The South
Koreans, amongst others. It will cater to India’s own gargantuan appetite, and
export millions of chips in the bargain, made at a competitive cost, and
without any geopolitical worries attendant. Many countries with which India has
poor balance of payment problems, with will get sorted out by the export of
these essential devices.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">China will
however still be No.1 in 2075 with $ 57 trillion in GDP, having overtaken
America by 2035, says the report. But remember this 2035 date has been pushed
back several times already, and China, with its ageing population due to its
One Child Policy is not very well placed to achieve this forecast. It will have
slowed growth for at least three decades to come. Its belligerence is also
counter-productive to retention of a Chinese supply chain. Its chief buyers in
the West, collectively accounting for some $ 3 trillion in exports per annum,
may not be able, or choose to, sustain such numbers going forward. And Chinese
monopolies on minerals may well be substituted from other sources. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">The Euro
area, meaning Western Europe, will be collectively at $30.3 trillion, says the
report, and America will be at No.3 with $51.5 trillion.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Japan will
be at a mere $ 7.5 trillion, quite lost in the rankings along with Russia even
further down the list. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">But, young
population advantages apart, how the report, authored principally by economists
Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas thinks Pakistan will be a $ 12 trillion plus
economy, ranked at No.6 by then, is a mystery! Of course, the big caveat is
that this can only happen, given, ‘the appropriate policies and institutions’.
Pakistan today is all but bankrupt, with no way out of its predicament. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">It is more
probable that America, because of its innate ability to innovate and develop
technology better than any other country, and its formidable military, will
still be No.1 in 2075.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Coming back
to the present, July 14<sup>th</sup>, Friday, 2023, is turning out to be
another momentous day for India.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will
witness the scheduled launch for the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO’s)
Chandrayaan 3, four tons of spacecraft, at 2.35 pm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Prime Minister won’t be in Sriharikota to
witness the launch, powered by ISRO’s most powerful two ton rocket this time. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">He will be
in Paris on 13-14 July as the Chief Guest for Bastille Day. Prime Minister
Modi, will be accompanied not only by his senior staff but a 280 member
tri-services armed forces contingent that will march in the parade. Three
Indian Rafale fighters will fly-past the Champ Elysees. This attendance at France’s
National Day celebration also marks 25 years of the India-France strategic
partnership.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Prime
Minister Modi is scheduled to sign several pathbreaking defence equipment and
complete technology transfer agreements in Paris. These include the acquisition
of 26 Rafale Naval aircraft for India’s newest aircraft carrier, a 110-130 KiloNewton
Safran engine with complete technology transfer for India’s AMCA MK2 Stealth
fighters,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>another engine<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>to be jointly developed for India’s light
combat helicopters, three<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>more Scorpene
Class conventional submarines to be built in India as soon as possible, and
technology collaboration in a joint venture on the latest French Barracuda
Class Nuclear submarines to be built in India.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">In the
backdrop of discussions on whether to grant Ukraine ‘de facto’ NATO membership,
it is likely that the India-France Strategic Relationship may be enhanced after
discussions. This, with specific reference to the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific
areas. France has a lot of territory and overseas citizenry in the
Indo-Pacific.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">For India,
an enhanced Indo-French Strategic Partnership will be in addition to its
membership in QUAD. For France, it will formalise its role in the region where
it has bases in the Indian Ocean and regularly patrols it. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India has
begun repair and refurbish some categories of US Naval ships in its ports, and
could do the same for the French Navy as well. From the point of the Chinese
threat posed in the area, this Indo-French cooperation will boost peace and
tranquillity. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India is
also creating a new transshipment base in the Nicobar Islands and enhancing it
tri-services and naval presence and facilities in the Andaman and Nicobar
region with its headquarters in Port Blair. The entire series of islands are
strategic and overlook the Malacca Straits, a vital shipping route for China.
Participating in this development could enhance trade and technology exchanges
between our two nations. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">On the way
back from France, Prime Minister Modi will stop over in the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) a I2 U2 Partner. He will meet, to meet with its President Mohammed
bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Enhanced two-way investments, technological
and defence cooperation, are likely to follow. Similar indications emerged when
Prime Minister Modi stopped in Egypt on the way back from his highly successful
visit to America recently.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India is
also about to land on the moon. Chandrayaan I, from 2008, plunged a probe
‘impacter’ into the moon’s surface near its South Pole, and first made mention
of water on the moon. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Chandrayaan
2, from September 2019, could not soft land due to some software malfunctions.
It caused its lander, the 145 kg Vikram, (named after India’s space effort
pioneer Vikram Sarabhai), to come close, but eventually crash land on the moon’s
surface. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Many
learnings based on what when wrong in 2019 have been incorporated, according to
current ISRO Chairman Dr. Somanath S. The moon landing of the new improved
successor pod, that will set down on the moon, is scheduled for August 28<sup>th</sup>.
</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">It will take
over a month to get into the appropriate moon orbit on the 23<sup>rd</sup> or
24<sup>th</sup> of August. Once successfully completed, India will become only
the 4<sup>th</sup> country after America, Russia, and China to land on the moon’s
surface. It is the first that will alight just 70 degrees away from the moon’s
South Pole.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All the others have chosen
to land nearer the Moon’s equator. On the poles, there is a greater likelihood
of finding water molecules, and many other minerals. </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">The new
improved Vikram will soft land by daylight, a moon-day being 14 earth days
long. This will enable the solar powered rover to move around more, collect
scientific data and samples via its instruments on board, and take pictures. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">The night
temperatures on the moon are an estimated minus 180-230 degrees centigrade. And
though the batteries on the rover and lander have been designed to withstand
such extreme conditions, they could still fail in time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India’s ISRO
that has already sent a spacecraft to orbit Mars, will work with<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>America’s NASA to establish a space-station,
and possibly a manned moon landing soon. Like the defence manufacturing
establishment in India it is collaborating with the private sector and spawning
new start-ups.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">India’s
journey towards becoming a developed country has well and truly begun, and most
Western countries are now keen to treat it as an ally and strategic partner in
the South-Asian, Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific theatre.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">(1,451
words)<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">For week
commencing July 17<sup>th</sup>, 2023</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">For:
Firstpost/News18.com<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 104%;">Gautam
Mukherjee</span></b><o:p></o:p></p>GHATOTKACHSERIES IIIhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01753579717182415989noreply@blogger.com0