The Yellow Peril 2.0 Has A Low Kill-Rate

The Yellow Peril 2.0 Has A Low Kill-Rate

The Wuhan or Chinese Virus, as it should be properly known, has a low kill-rate. This is quite unlike the Spanish Flu, of exactly 100 years ago, that killed millions of people around the globe. The lack of medical sophistication of the time may have had a lot to do with that. But now, look at India; the kill-rate from this imported virus is below 2% of those infected so far, with just over 1000 active cases, and 19 dead. This despite a spike upwards of under a 100 cases in just one day, yesterday.

Now we are purportedly in stage 3 of the expected community spread. This  involves infection and kill-rates between people who have not come from abroad themselves, nor were in touch with anyone who has recently returned from a country where the Wuhan Virus is rampant. However, the authorities are not signalling a community spread yet. Sangli, in Maharashtra, that saw 24 members of one extended family test positive after just one member came back from Saudi Arabia, has been quarantined.

The current statistics and kill-rate may well spike upwards as the lock-down imposed by the Central Government has been decisively breached within just 8 days, from last Sunday. Lakhs of migrant workers have set off in defiance of curfew, determined to go back to their villages from the cities, particularly Delhi and Mumbai.

Uttar Pradesh has been forced to press 1,000 buses into motion to ferry some of these workers to their native villages, even as it will attempt to test and quarantine the returnees.  Others intend to go to Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat- also from one southern state to another. Transport is hard to come by in the lock-down, so many, with wives and children in tow, are walking down the highways. They are flouting the lock-down with impunity, as the authorities are loathe to use force on these very poor people. They will hike  hundreds of kilometres if no transport comes to hand. The migrant workers prefer this hardship to being penniless and out-of-work in the city.

State governments in some cases, are clearly not up to the task of looking after migrant workers over a prolonged period.  Plus there is a fair amount of underlying political jockeying for advantage. Some forces are apparently not keen to see this lock-down succeed, even at the cost of suffering, sickness, lives lost.

The Delhi government, it is reported, cut off the electricity and water to the slum clusters where the migrant workers from UP and Bihar lived in the capital. It even ferried them to the state borders in DTC buses meant to be used only for those engaged in essential services currently.

Meanwhile, the global kill-rate presently is 30,839 from 662,543 active cases, or just over 4.5%. Another 142,364 people have recovered so far. This includes those in the worst affected countries such as Italy and the United States. And, of course, central China’s Wuhan Province, where it all began.

This reportedly from the consumption of bats and bat-soup, along with other wild animals and creatures not usually associated with the human food chain. The Chinese Government has, since this outbreak, banned the consumption of wild animals and birds. However, apparently, the  specific traditional markets, where these creatures were sold in Wuhan, are said to be back in operation.

Conspiracy theorists have suggested, in a parallel train of thought, that this Wuhan Virus was inadvertently leaked, or deliberately released, from a Chinese government biological warfare laboratory in the province.

The Government of China has refused to discuss what happened at the UNSC, with the help of Russia that sided with it. It has also muzzled all internal query or criticism on the matter as well. An early whistle-blowing doctor has died from the Wuhan Virus. A Chinese businessman that criticised the handling of the crisis by the Xi Jinping led junta has gone missing. American journalists based in China from WSJ and the NYT were expelled for writing negative pieces.

Several young Chinese, long dormant after the debacle of Tiananmen Square, decades ago, are once again attempting to carry the torch of transparency at great personal risk. There is some ineffective criticism reported in the Chinese media, of President Xi Jinping’s leadership, particularly about keeping his own people in the dark.

China, on its part, presently claims it is mostly over the pandemic. It is gradually opening up in Wuhan, though it still does not allow people to travel in or out of the state. Foreigners are also not allowed into China after several returning students from the West brought the infection into Beijing. It is extraordinary how there have been  no Wuhan Virus infections reported, let alone a kill-rate before now, in either Beijing  or Shanghai and the manufacturing region around the latter.

China has also restarted its immense manufacturing machine to mitigate the hit to its economy. It is exporting masks, gloves, sanitisers, ventilators, medicines, to Europe and elsewhere. China is also reportedly buying up large chunks of equity in leading companies all over the West via the stock markets, at a fraction of their usual prices. And petroleum at bargain basement prices.

At the same time, China has made bold to call all attempts to hold it responsible or culpable in any manner for sanctions or reparations, as both racist and unwarranted. China has even suggested that the virus was, in fact, introduced by the Americans, via NATO, into Wuhan Province.

Playing off the same song-sheet, the WHO labelling of the Wuhan Virus has tried to give its origins a neutral patina. This, by calling it Coronavirus or Covid -19. It is a collusive attempt to distance China from the opprobrium of originating and spreading it, and its kill-rate.

Millions of Chinese have been travelling from Wuhan and elsewhere over the Chinese New Year, before, and after. The devastation that the Wuhan Virus has caused to the leading economies of the world has driven almost all of them into recession.

In this, the WHO, led currently by a non-medical Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, from Ethiopia, who came to the top job, after covering up two SARS epidemics in his home country, is largely instrumental.

Word on the street is that Ghebreyesus is a Chinese puppet, and helped in the initial cover up regarding the Chinese Virus. WHO even put out a message saying the Wuhan Virus was not contagious initially, this around December 2019. WHO did not call for any lock-down or issue any cautionary travel advisory either, even though it was in-the-know from November 2019 .

What has become subsequently clear is that the Wuhan Virus is extremely contagious, and makes those who are infected with it very sick with high fever, no sense of taste or smell, a very sore throat and difficulty in breathing. The most severe cases need to be put on ventilators in order to survive, if at all.

However, empirical evidence suggests that it kills mostly those with low immunity. This, from underlying and existing conditions, such as hypertension, diabetes, AIDS, heart disease. Also, those who are in ill-health from various causes, recovering cancer patients, the elderly. At the same time, a tough 103 year old has reportedly recovered from the Wuhan Virus.

There is no preventive vaccine as yet, and no specific drugs to treat the Wuhan Virus. Doctors, many of whom have died in the attempt, particularly in Italy, treat the Wuhan Virus symptomatically. They use a variety of medicines in their efforts, based on individual patient profiles and symptoms. There may well be more than one strain of the Wuhan Virus, varying in virulence. Some countries and its people may be less susceptible. The onset of summer might well reduce the potency of this pandemic.

As India stares at another 17 days and nights of lock-down, there are those who are wondering if the forceful attempt to win over the Wuhan Virus is coming at too great an economic cost.

India’s GDP forecast for 2020 post the Wuhan Virus lock-down, is now at 2.5%, down from an already weak 5.3%.  Also, maintaining the lock-down is proving difficult, despite there being no air or rail transport, and no scheduled international flights. The economic activity has had to grind to a standstill, and this hits the poor, middle-class and rich alike. The poor seem to be saying they would rather not die of starvation, Wuhan Virus notwithstanding. There are supply bottlenecks, administrative confusion, and implementation difficulties.  The economy already weak due to low demand and massive NPAs is reeling from this fresh shock.

All this then, for a kill-rate of under 5% of those made sick, even without a lock-down.

America, where the epicentre of the Wuhan Virus infections is in New York, along with the nearby states of New Jersey and Connecticut, has decided, on balance, not to quarantine these states.

In fact, it has not locked-down anywhere, even as it has the largest number of infected people currently in the world. Most Americans do not have expensive medical insurance, and are self confining in their homes if infected. People are being advised to maintain social distance and are doing so voluntarily in the main, after a period of defiance and negligence.

It might then be argued, in view of the low kill-rate from the Wuhan Virus, despite its rapid and extreme contagion, that the Indian lock-down cannot be justified beyond April 15^th . This, even as there is some doubt whether it can be sustained till then.

The contagion will not be gone by April 15^th but the question that is being asked is whether the prevention is proving more expensive than the cure.

For: SirfNews

(1,612 words)

March 29^th 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

  

Little Affected, Most Perturbed: India Ably Tackles The Global Pandemic

Little Affected, Most Perturbed: India Ably Tackles The Global Pandemic

The Covid-19 or Novel Corona virus has found India well prepared. The global pandemic that began in Wuhan, China, is presently also raging in Europe and the US. The epicenter seems to have shifted to Northern Italy from China, though Iran’s Qom is a contender too. So far, over 132,000 have tested positive around the world, and there have been over 5,000 deaths.

In India, the level of counter-action is unprecedented for any disease that has afflicted this country in the past. Not only is a great deal being done, but with almost every media outlet obsessing over this virus, it is the main news item.

With a mortality rate of 3-4% globally, India has however seen a lot worse in earlier famines, scourges and natural disasters, apart from the fatalities from accidents, even in recent times.

The domestic scenario has reported an infection statistic in just two digits, though some quarters have raised concern on the low number of some 52 testing centres. These are now being raised to 55, all government controlled, but this could well be inadequate to assess the magnitude of the spread, if it comes to that.

The number of infected people in India, including visiting tourists, mainly from Italy, is about 85 at present. This is commendable, if the number is correct, in a country with a teeming population of 1.4 billion people.  

There is a good reason why India is not much affected. The prompt precautionary moves undertaken by the government have apparently been very effective. There has been elaborate official concern from the top levels of the government, evacuation of Indians at risk in other countries,  emergency medical facilities, isolation wards and locations, quarantine  protocols and screening of arrivals from abroad. All this work has been exemplary and timely. Old learning have taught the authorities that deadly viruses like this should not be allowed to spread unchecked.

All this action together will likely contain and vastly reduce the impact. In addition, a number of under-utilised flights to and from abroad have been cancelled by the airlines themselves. The government on its part has witheld all non-essential visas. Many land borders have also been closed. The popular IPL cricket and other sporting fixtures have been postponed. Schools, colleges, cinema halls, malls and other places where large numbers might gather have been closed for a spell across the country. Other emergency measures are being considered. Intense monitoring of the situation is in place.

Combined with a steady messaging on dos and donts,  the squashing of rumours, the warming up of the weather as the country goes into summer, is also expected to help. The two fatalities so far have both been  that of elders, with other underlying health issues such as diabetes and hypertension. Young, reasonably fit people tend to recover, and 10 have done so in India already. In medical terms, the virus has also been isolated outside of the body  in India. This in order to develop antibodies and vaccines in due course.

It can certainly be said that India has been doing well in terms of the preventive and other measures against this deadly virus that has only symptomatic treatments so far.

But the threats emerging from the Corona virus has done considerable knock-on economic damage in various sectors already.

The silver lining, though largely unrelated, unless a fall in demand has triggered it, is the recent tumbling of petroleum prices. Saudi Arabia, with immense proven reserves, has decided to strongly increase its output in competition with all other producers. The price of a barrel of crude oil, down sharply, could fall to as little as $ 20, according to experts. This is greatly benefitting India that imports over 80% of its oil.

The global situation economically has hit China and America hardest, with each country directly losing almost a billion dollars in foreign trade till now.

India too has lost a few hundred million dollars in its Indo-Chinese trade, but the domestic impact on tourism, hotels, related services, is very much higher.

Globally, the stock markets have been gyrating in panic. The US has lost almost all the gains, running into billions of dollars, made during the last four Trump administered years.

The Indian market has rewound to figures prevailing two years ago. The rupee has taken a beating, even as the Indian foreign exchange reserves are at nearly $500 billion. The Debt Market and gold bonds have held out well so far but all depends on how much longer this goes on.

The reactions to the pandemic and indeed the disease itself will inevitably fade in the not too distant future, leaving a lot of human misery and economic damage in its wake.

But at the same time, it will provide an opportunity to reassess the foundations of international business afresh. In a near reboot, not seen since the international economic crisis of 2008, there will be new opportunities, as well as significant realignments.

Will the Chinese economy, already plagued by low growth before this disease came along, be able to recover any time soon? Will its Belt and Road initiative already in trouble, and itsa blue water maritime hegemonic ambitions survive? Will the drastic losses in the global equity markets provide new get rich possibilities for intrepid investors wherever they may be?

India could benefit from the reworking of the global economy in the aftermath, though it may not be mainly in terms of Chinese manufacturing relocating to India. This, desirable as it may be from the Indian point of view, is much talked about. But the notion still suffers from substantial infrastructure and utility bottlenecks in India compared to China that may take a few more years to address.

But there could well be a substantial fillip to defence and armaments related manufacturing here, under the Make in India programme.  The negotiations in this regard with various contenders could gain momentum. India is still the second biggest arms and armaments importer in the world, second only to Saudi Arabia.

With recessionary conditions claiming the collaborating countries too, earlier objections to technology transfer, high pricing and the like could be removed and negotiations fast-tracked.

Defence manufacturing has the virtue of being very high unit-value, while offering new, skilled jobs, to an estimated 1.5 lakh people. India has designated an ambitious defence manufacturing corridor in Uttar Pradesh that has been well received by prospective partners. It will shortly build roads and other infrastructure to serve it better.

The export potential of defence equipment too is now prominent in the minds of Indian planners. It has just climbed into the ranks of the top 25 armaments exporters in the world at a modest No. 23. Items such as Indian bullet-proof vests, missiles of various kinds, patrol boats, frigates, radar, missile shields, satellites and  launching facilities, are now in demand.

In future, fighter aircraft, submarines, helicopter gunships, drones, machine guns and other items could come into play as well.   This sector therefore is seen as a major enabler of India’s ambition to become a $ 5 trillion economy by 2024.

The hectic work and massive investment going into new and modernized infrastructure is part of the same thing. 

It is of the greatest importance when the GDP has otherwise slowed to under 5% per annum, compared to the over 7% it was at not so long ago, or even 9% before that. Various sectors of the economy such as banking, real estate and even the 60% that comes from the all sustaining service economy are suffering.

These, along with traditional agriculture or even food processing industries, other manufacturing including that of automobiles and electronics, are unlikely to be the prime movers in the near future.

But paying one third of the earlier cost for India’s huge oil imports, with a robust, nearly $ 500 billion in foreign exchange reserves, will certainly help India rebuild its economy.

Manufacturing more of its military equipment needs here, another major import cost head, and exporting a portion of it, is the way forward. India aspires, after all, to be amongst the top three economies with more than $ 10 trillion in nominal terms by 2032.

While a situation brought on by the Corona virus is far from desirable, the reworkings it may force upon the global economy may not be bad at all for India.

For: WIONEWS

(1,390 words)

March 14^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee