The Hail-Mary Keep-Counting US Presidential Election

What was expected by pollsters to be a comfortable win for the Democrat Biden-Harris ticket has turned into a nail-biter. Vice-president Joe Biden’s lead in the days and months leading up to election day was near 10% throughout. His campaign was aimed at healing America’s soul, allegedly fractured by Donald Trump’s presidency.

But in the election results out so far, it is apparent that Trump continues to enjoy considerable support throughout America. Biden, like Hillary Clinton in 2016, does indeed lead in the popular vote, but the slog-overs are in the Electoral Votes.

 The House of Representatives, or Congress, continues to be in a Democrat majority, while the Senate remains with the Republicans. This is as it was in the Trump presidency’s latter days. This bipartisan situation makes passing legislation an onerous process for either side.

The Republican Trump-Pence ticket looks within striking distance of its second term in power. However, thanks to the Covid-19 pandemic, there are unprecedented  numbers of postal ballots.

Trump could win if key ‘battleground’ states still in play fall to them. At this point they include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

The controversy on when the postal ballots, post-marked November 3^rd  latest, should be counted till, is  still rife. Democrats say, it should go on till the last vote is counted. The Republicans suspect there may be frauds perpetrated if this is allowed over large stretches of time.  

The postal ballots, run into their millions in this election. The ultimate result will be determined after the slow and careful count is finally over. Here again, the pollster’s wisdom had it that these were mostly Democrat votes, particularly amongst the early voters much before election day November 3^rd.   But in the counting, of those ballots that came in on election day post-marked November 3^rd, this is not always borne out. So last minute surprises could happen, as the counts are continually pulling both ways.

Joe Biden has counselled patience and shown confidence in the ultimate outcome, expecting it to be in his favour. Trump has claimed he has already won and accused the Democrats of trying to ‘steal’ the election via fraudulent postal ballots, including dead-man Democrat votes, fudged signatures, and biased decision-making in Democrat heavy states. He has called for a recount in Wisconsin if the Courts agree.

Trump has, in fact, already initiated several lawsuits over the mail-in ballots, verification of data incorporated, including signatures, the time they came in, versus the cut-off deadline, and so on. Then there is the correct process of counting itself, supervised by representatives of both parties. There is even an independent arbitrator in most locations.

However, some legal observers regard the proposed litigation as unlikely to be effective. They call them Hail Mary law suits based on Game Theory. They could, if accepted by the Courts, further delay the final outcome, result in recounts and modified rules of counting the mail-in votes, result in Democrat counter-suits, that would complicate the terms of engagement.

This may be important however, because America is a federation, with each state allowed to make its own processes and rules on the postal voting. And all of it may not be even-handed.

What is clear, away from the actual voting, is the almost equal division of perception about what matters, and how America should be run. There is little focus on America’s place in the world. Instead the gaze is turned inwards on America’s fractured sense of unity and huge economic disparities between the haves and have-nots.

The polarisation between the Left-leaning Democrats and the Right-of-centre Republicans seems to have hardened. White America is anxious about the impact of growing numbers of Blacks, Hispanics, impoverished and sometimes illegal immigrants, other minorities including real and potential Islamic terrorists. They are scared of being swamped as demographic shifts are taking place quite rapidly. White Supremacists are stirring up passions. Shootings and murders are on the rise. Immigration from all but a few European countries has been tightened.

With recent rioting in different parts of the country, there is consternation about the increasing assertiveness of groups backed and financed by shadowy near-Communist style organisations. Are foreign governments involved?

International relations, including the contentious relationship with an imperialist China, is nevertheless perceived as less of a burning issue for most Americans. At the best of times, Americans are mostly not very interested in the rest of the world, except for traditional ties to London and Paris. Visiting Europe is a rite-of-passage for many to appreciate the old world from where most White Americans came generations ago.

President Trump in 2020 gets high marks for his handling of the domestic economy and is criticised for downplaying the pandemic. Vice President Joe Biden, if he wins, is expected to come to the rescue of the poor with more giveaways and higher taxes on the better off.

There is hope in the hearts of Black people for a Democrat victory, though not all Black people or Hispanics have voted Democrat by any means.

But in the end, the postal ballots, and the controversies they have led to, including incorrect ballot papers sent out, are reminiscent of the problems with the ‘pregnant chads’ during the first bid to the presidency of Republican George W Bush. That happened in Florida which Trump has won this time. That dispute in 2000 with Democrat Al Gore went to the Supreme Court. And it took 36 days to finally give the state to Bush  after it stopped the counting. It resulted in making Bush president.

This time, it is possible that one or the other could reach the required 270 electoral votes before the last vote is counted, but will that be accepted by the other side?

(953 words)

November 5^th, 2020

For: WIONEWS

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Pushback Against Terrorism Is Gaining Ground Globally

For a very long time, through the second half of the 20^th century, as the world shrank, became globalised, and increasingly enlightened in its attitudes, the old prejudices declined. There were even those who bent over backwards to set things right.

Racism, with its horrific history connected with slavery, colonialism, imperialism and the agrarian economy, was not only frowned upon, there was legislation against it. Diversity and multi-ethnicity was encouraged in Europe and America and other parts of the First World. Immigration policies, largely based on mandatory Caucasian and Judeo-Christian applicants, became broad-minded. A steady trend began towards ignoring, colour, race, language, religious and cultural differences, even lack of education, in immigration policy. The West was keen to make amends for the sins of the past.

It was thought assimilation into a more prosperous and welcoming environment, often under-populated, offering education, health benefits, other welfare initiatives, jobs, would help it happen automatically. It was, we know now, a romantic notion. Instead, hostile ghettoes of immigrants sprang up with no appreciation for the Western values that had let them in.

It is an understandable mistake because in the past, when down-trodden European, Jewish, some Asian groups, became new citizens, it had worked very well. Many of these sometimes impoverished new entrants are admired for their industry, and made rapid strides within a generation. Refugees were accepted as an act of social consciousness and affirmative action against the horrors of war-torn parts of the world.

But of course, this was before immigrants were being radicalised and instigated by their community leaders to take over their host countries.

Other nations, principally functioning democracies, with large minority populations such as India, frowned on religious discrimination as well. They defined their inclusive policies as the very essence of secularism. While this did not always go down well with the majority, public policy saw to it that their views were ignored.

 It may even be said to have worked tolerably well at first over nearly five decades.  But in the early part of the 21^st century, soon after the millennium, this changed. The liberal world, we can see clearly now, came under attack from a shadowy and ideological enemy. The liberals were welcome to provide a shield, but they too were to be pushed aside when the time came.

9/11, in 2001, was an unprecedented terrorist attack on American soil. It was aimed  at its thriving commercial heart, located in Manhattan, New York, and its military and political centre in Washington D.C. It claimed more than 3,000 civilian lives, those of some security men and several firemen. The nearest thing in the American experience was the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour that brought America into  WWII. 

A similar landmark occasion in Mumbai, India, was 26/11, in 2008, which followed on from several earlier bombings in retaliation for the demolition of the Babri Masjid in Ayodhya.

But 26/11 was a stand-alone act of terror sponsored by neighbouring Pakistan. Like 9/11,  it was designed to intimidate. It was an unprovoked strike at India that succeeded, unlike a similar attempt made on its parliament and its members in New Delhi subsequently.  It was aimed at the commercial capital, targeting an iconic luxury hotel used by foreigners and the Indian elite, its main down town railway terminus, even its hospitals. The small and floating Jewish presence by way of Mumbai’s Chabad House, was also attacked. All the casualties, running into their hundreds, barring the some military and police personnel, were civilians, including several foreigners, Europeans and Americans amongst them.

 There are many less spectacular occasions of exported terror, mostly connected to Pakistan and its infamous ISI. These took place both before and after these marquee occasions, around the world. Some involved military and diplomatic installations, others were purely civilian or political targets.

But for a long time, the country most affected was India, followed by Israel. Terrorist attacks were not frequent in Europe, America, Australia or New Zealand. Prime Minister Modi has never made an international speech without highlighting the scourge of international terrorism. He has urged the free world to unite in the necessary fight, and this is gradually gaining momentum now.

The terrorists, on their part, have increasingly picked on non-military soft targets, hoping to provoke a backlash. This would then create a domestic cycle of violence and retaliation and give terror the desired local roots.

By the third decade of the 21^st century, it appears that terror has got its wish, even as it has sown the seeds of its ultimate destruction as the world comes together against it.. It has indeed struck global roots, with local and home grown incidents becoming very frequent.  Following on from France, to Russia, to Canada, India, and so on,  terror strikes have happened within just one week of the news cycle.

France under President Macron has decided to push back. The EU has decided to support it. So has India. And Russia, and a slew of other countries such as Saudi Arabia. The Scandanavians are threatening deportation and cancellation of citizenship. India is now formally legislating against the pernicious practice of “love jihad”.  America under President Trump, and indeed since 9/11, has been tightening up its immigration and surveillance policies.

What has changed drastically in recent days however is the liberal stance towards this  violence. The old argument that terrorists actually have no religion is not being readily accepted anymore. Being offended over perceived insults and injustices cannot be used as an excuse to unleash murderous violence. Nor can it justify rioting, arson and murder is the prevailing view.

This change in the sympathetic liberal mindset that has given succour to supposedly dispossessed and poor people, is not willing to be taken advantage of any longer.

In India, the minorities are gradually being asked to face up to their responsibilities as Indian citizens instead of over emphasising their rights. It is a big shift from the appeasement policies of the past. But it is by no means an unreasonable demand. There will be no going back. The sponsors of cross-border terrorism and the financing of embedded terror groups in this country are coming under increased pressure. There is a shift in public awareness that makes anti-state and anti-national activity difficult. India is dealing with native minorities, but the world at large is fed up.

Barring a couple of isolated countries which are in deep economic trouble, the support for terrorism is shrinking rapidly. Any escalation of violence will be met with determined resistance.  There is no future for terror as a political tool anywhere in the world.  

 (1,097 words)

For: WIONEWS

November 2^nd, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee