Early Diwali

Early Diwali

RBI Governor  Raghuram Rajan said his surprise 50 bps repo rate cut effective September 29^th was made possible, because of improvements on the ground, consistently lower commodity prices, and an inflation rate target of 6% for this fiscal, more or less met.

He protested, amid dimpled smiles, that he wasn’t playing Father Christmas or announcing a Diwali bonus. And yet, as the retail bank honchos, announced back-to-back, that they too will shortly lower their lending and home loan rates, amongst a clamour for ‘transmission’ of the easier money policies; it certainly feels like it. State Bank of India got off the ground first and has already cut its lending rate by 40bps to 9.3%.

This will also have happy consequences on the high home loan scenario and may go some way to revive the stagnant residential housing market. 

The bourses, started the day on the 29^th pessimistic, with cues from the SGX Nifty indicating an over 100 point cut, but this changed quite dramatically sometime after 11.00 am IST, once Rajan made his unexpected announcement. It wasn’t unexpected because it wasn’t warranted and even overdue, but the RBI governor rarely saw it the same way as the street in the past.  

And yet, the RBI has cumulatively lowered the repo rates from 8%  to 6.75%  in this year alone, and there will be another late year review yet. Some commentators are suggesting the front-loading of optimistic monetary policy has, in fact, just begun.  

From the sounds of it, the lower interest regime will almost certainly continue through 2016 and onwards, ushering in robust growth prospects. There may be a lag as industrialists gather their confidence, but business and industry should, in all probability, make bold to expand on the back of this supportive policy direction, that is no longer hawkish about the future.

It is curious coincidence that America will probably start raising rates in 0.25% increments, sometime soon, perhaps once in six months, while we lower them likewise but more likely once in three. But the US is hoping to stimulate a modicum of inflation from their near zero situation.

And while it will be quite some time before the US interest rates are at, say, 4%, we may be there in just over two years from now if we proceed at the current pace. We are of course, hoping that our inflation will keep dropping to perhaps 3% in order to make the low interest regime sustainable for the decades of growth we need to turn this country into a developed one.

But for now it is a relief to see that at last, the RBI is sounding optimistic about the future, projecting a 5.5% inflation rate for 2016-17, and a simultaneous growth rate of 8% for the last quarter of this fiscal itself.

Rajan, whose three year term comes to an end in 2016, is now largely on the same page as the government that has been exhorting him and his autonomous central bank to lower rates for quite some time.

Since the governor enjoys considerable international credibility, recognition, and prestige, it might be a good idea, in the changed scenario, to let him stay on, and give him a second term at the RBI now.

To be fair, Raghuram Rajan has been making a number of efforts to modernise and improve the functioning of not only the RBI, but the various PSU and other private high street banks, and more time at his disposal will make the task easier. He was instrumental in pushing through the implementation of the launching of a number of small banks and payment banks recently.

Rajan has also been critical of the manner in which humungous corporate NPAs fall on the necks of the tax payer at present. This, even as the promoters of various defaulting companies go scot free.

Raghuram Rajan can certainly help Modi’s government and its ministry of finance/commerce/company affairs, find ways and means to make such defaulters more accountable. More so now that he has stopped raining on its parade with his economically morose outlook and ever-tight monetary policy.  

Of course,   it was only a couple of days ago, as the will-he-won’t-he debate raged, that the irrepressible senior sharpshooter of the BJP Subramanian Swamy, suggested that Rajan should be sacked if he didn’t cut this time too. But now, all is certainly forgiven, particularly amongst the pile of optimistic comments made by the governor in context.

Politically too, this government may be setting the stage to wrest another term in power come 2019. This will look increasingly probable if the NDA wins outright, nearly wins, and/or forms the next state government in Bihar, post the assembly elections in October/November.

The international community interested in investing  in India too is bound to be pleased about the RBI’s signal that the economy has righted itself, and is on the path to sustainable growth.

This will be reflected in the form of renewed stock market investment into India with higher weightages, despite the threats posed by the economic decline of China and the possibility of capital flight when America reverses its interest rate policy.  

This more so in the context of Narendra Modi’s strenuous efforts to get his ‘Make in India’ and ‘Digital India’ initiatives going with the help of massive FDI.

The blood moon and lunar eclipse seems to have done well for India, and by 2033, when the phenomenon occurs again, this should be a very different kind of place.

For :Swarajyamag

(912 words)

September 29^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Howzatt Dalmiya, Incoming Southpaw Ganguly

Howzatt Dalmiya, Incoming Southpaw Ganguly

The elevation of businessman, insightful cricket commentator, and former India test cricket team captain Saurav Ganguly, to the post of president of the Cricket Association Of Bengal (CAB), has been welcomed by all observers.

Ganguly is not new to the CAB however, as he has been holding down the post of a joint secretary of the 117 member CAB for some time now. His vacated seat will now be taken up by the late former president Jagmohan Dalmiya’s son, Abhishek; once more at the instance of the chief minister of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee.

That both appointments have the express and enthusiastic backing of the chief minister makes the  unanimous ratification of the appointments not only all but certain, but also renders the positions powerful. Banerjee has indicated her mind on the matter within days of the sudden demise of the longstanding previous occupant of the post, the feisty, capable and visionary Jagmohan Dalmiya.

But the big departure here, which may have the makings of an emerging trend in Indian cricket administration, is that a celebrated cricketer has been pitch-forked into this top job. And this, with full political backing, and an announcement, from the all-in-all chief minister of West Bengal. Will Saurav Ganguly, very popular with the masses in Kolkata and in the interiors of West Bengal, now also join the Trinamool Congress before the Bengal Assembly elections, coming up shortly? Time will tell.

Indian and international cricket, has been tainted of late, by match-fixing, nepotism, hawala and black money involvement, large scale illegal betting, involving millions of dollars, and other corrupt practices. A crowded calendar of 20 overs and 50 overs fixtures in addition to the national test jousts have given cricketers and the entire sporting/commentating and advertising/media industry that has grown up around them, a lot of exposure, money, and temptation.

But trying to quell this raciness via the appointment of cricketers, however honest and sincere, to top administrative jobs has not always worked so well in other states so far. This, without naming names, is probably because these cricketers have not been anointed and installed with such solid political backing, and have had to contend with a plethora of vested interests.

But in West Bengal, Ganguly is its most prominent cricketing legend, and is felt to be a good choice. And this, not just by the chief minister, but by other members of the CAB, the public and commentators at large. He combines daring and risk taking ability with tact and team-spirit building acumen, a business background, an illustrious career as a former test cricketer and national captain, as a cricket commentator, sports icon and so on. He also is not yet touched by any financial scandal throughout his career.

That Ganguly should be lifted up to the apex position in West Bengal’s cricket administration therefore, seems thoroughly logical, and his high and glamorous profile could well improve the prospects of the CAB.

Also, Ganguly is not only financially well-to-do, both from the proceeds of his family printing and other businesses, and in his own right as a cricketer in the era of big money remuneration and lucrative endorsements. He is a star of the game, universally known in his home state, plus nationally and internationally. Saurav Ganguly brings, as a consequence, a natural and well-earned authority to the appointment.

Commentators are saying that it will fall to Ganguly’s business acumen, persuasiveness and experience to fill Dalmiya’s administratively capable shoes. He will also need to enhance the finances of the CAB by striking suitable and far-reaching commercial deals. Dalmiya was an early pioneer in this regard, and got the ball rolling a long time ago.

Some people, who regard Ganguly as the best ever India team captain, expect him to find, in addition, another ace cricketer or even a clutch of them, like himself, from the soil of West Bengal. This despite the infamous reservations of Greg Chappell who did not see eye to eye with Ganguly, even though he had been initially taken on as national coach at Ganguly’s suggestion. The jury is still out on that fracas, but it is true a lot of fresh blood did enter the national team at the time, and instance, not of Ganguly, but Chappell! 

Ganguly has promptly accepted the challenge, after a meeting with the chief minister, who does not have anything formally or directly to do with the CAB, though she clearly wants the organisation raised to new heights of accomplishment.

Of course, as she pointed out, even now, three of her state cabinet colleagues are ensconced in it, and will be tasked to help Ganguly do his job. The marriage of politics and the wildly popular game of cricket in the subcontinent, and beyond, replete with big money and great power in recent decades, has actually been in place for quite a long time.

What an accomplished cricketer at the helm can do is recognise and draw new talent based on sheer merit rather than other extraneous considerations to a much greater degree. Going forward, this will have, if all goes well as expected with Ganguly, a highly favourable impact, not only in the doings of the CAB, but at the national level in the BCCI, and in various other state cricket associations.

But of course, just as not every gifted cricketer can bring the skills of a captain to bear on a team, even fewer may have the administrative skills to run an association cohesively and coherently. In Ganguly’s case, with his various other preoccupations and involvements, the CAB is unlikely to receive his undivided attention, and that fact too will take its toll.

This is also the reason why businessmen, politicians and not a few fixers, feature in the promotion of cricket and football and their administrations, and not just in this country.

Yet, there is an undeniable need for change, particularly to clean up the murkiness when it comes to new players, team selections, and the handling of finances/opportunities. The viewing and ticket buying public deserve best team winning sport and not the charade of fixed matches!

It remains to be seen if ‘Dada’ is up to the task. What is known however is that he not afraid of the challenge, and success in the CAB could well launch him into national level sports administration, and even a promising political career.  

  

For: Swarajyamag

(1,059 words)

September 27^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Contemplating The Worldview Of The Fool On The Hill

Contemplating The Worldview Of The Fool On The Hill

The most serious position to adopt in politics, around the world, is the Centre. Farid Zakaria made this point without debate, on CNN recently. It was during his magazine programme Farid Zakaria GPS. He held up the centrist and highly successful presidency of Bill Clinton, both politically and economically, as an illustration.  This, of course, in the context of the run-up towards the forthcoming  American presidential elections in 2016.

This is historically true enough, though somewhat wondrous now, when America is in dizzy trillions of dollars in debt, most famously illustrated by the wrangle and brinkmanship between President Obama, his fellow Democrats on one side, and the Republican Congress on the other, over the ‘debt ceiling’, not so long ago.

Democrat Clinton created over 21 million new jobs during his tenure, raised the GDP significantly, and took a budgetary deficit of 4.7% in 1992 and turned it into 2.6% surplus by 1997!  

This is, of course, most creditable, though because of the politics of continuity he adopted, he cannot in fairness be given the full credit for it. Clinton was lucky too, with record low oil prices; 1999 prices were a mere $10 a barrel, and ‘gasoline’ sold at American pumps at 95 cents for a gallon.

Centrist Clinton famously appointed and supported Republican Alan Greenspan to manage interest rates with great success as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank. Greenspan first came to be Fed Chairman in 1987, under  the reformist and anti-big government and high taxation President Ronald Reagan.  And he left after a nearly unprecedented five consecutive terms, during which the American economy boomed for two decades straight. 

Greenspan served without interruption under Presidents Reagan, George H.W.Bush, Clinton, and finally George W Bush - handing over to Ben Bernanke in January 2006.

Things have not been nearly so good for the US and the world since. And in hindsight, many of Greenspan’s monetarist and ‘easy money’ nostrums are being held responsible for the borrow and spend and speculative excesses. But the point, at the beginning and now, was that Clinton’s centrist policies undeniably paid off.

In India, the successive public opinion polls increasingly suggest a landslide victory in the Bihar Assembly elections for the NDA alliance, come October/November this year. One just has to wonder why.

NaMo’s development plank is certainly all-inclusive without being denominational, and decidedly centrist.

Though Nitish Kumar echoes many of the developmental themes, the others in his ‘Grand Alliance’ against Modi and the NDA prefer far left rhetoric. They ostensibly champion the poor and underprivileged, but obliquely and insistently refer to the politics of grievance, caste, creed, and religion.

If this latest Zee News/Janata Ka Mood poll findings, conducted over all 243 constituencies, and using a large sampling of those polled in each, comes to pass; at a minimum, the sturdy old formulas and assumptions will have failed.

And, if that happens, the ‘Grand Alliance’ will have to retreat from the political stage in shambles. The rising challenge to the Modi administration over the past months after the NDA defeat in Delhi will quickly disintegrate. And this will leave  Modi freer to proceed with greater resolve than in the 15-17 months of his rule thus far. 

Some 41.2% of Bihari Muslim voters, per those polled, are seriously contemplating voting for the NDA alliance led by prime minister Narendra Modi. Over 47% of Yadavs are likely to do likewise. The Paswan/Manjhi components of the NDA are set to mop up a large share of the Dalit and Mahadalit votes, at over 50%! The NDA is set to win 140 of 243 seats in the Bihar Assembly, and another 33 will be closely contested, per the poll.

Is Modi’s ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas’  accused of being an empty slogan by the opposition, sustaining yet, and getting through in Bihar, even after 16 months,  and again?

Modi’s personal popularity ratings also continue to be impressively high, not only in Bihar but nationally; according to a Mint/Instavaani poll in August, and yet another Pew poll, this, in September 2015.

Is this also, an approval for the centrist approach of Narendra Modi personally, and that of his government in general? The opposition charge is otherwise and accuses this government of communal polarisation and saffronisation of institutions and national narratives, but public perception seems to debunk this shrill propaganda, and appears to be with Modi.

In America meanwhile, flamboyant businessman cum presidential aspirant Donald Trump, is suggesting the silent majority is reacting to the overly liberal policies of the Obama administration.

And whether it is Trump’s rants against illegal immigrants from Mexico, some see as narrow minded zenophobia, offensive to the spirit of  America, or his blunt, muscular delivery on all matters, what is it that is resonating with the public? Trump is undeniably the current front-runner amongst a sizeable roster of Republican candidates.

Trump’s politics may well be to the Right of the GOP in general, but is the American public too, wanting to return, as far as possible, towards the Centre?

They, the American people, do not want to particularly address the feminist radicalism of gender politics after electing a man of colour to two terms in office. So they seem sceptical about the spin and plausible sounding fast-talk emanating from  both former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, front-running but wobbly in the polls Democrat; and former controversial Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, amongst the dozen or so Republican hopefuls, the only woman.

Donald Trump surging ahead in opinion polls might just be suggesting this, and endorsing his can-do brand of Reaganesque politics instead. Trump wants to make America great again, militarily and economically, and the public wants him to do it. Is this centrist? May be.

Centrism may also explain the holding off at the US Federal Reserve Bank. Chairman Janet Yellen decided not to raise interest rates once again recently. This was probably to avoid international financial and stock market turmoil.

A rate hike, which some see as both warranted and overdue, would signal a change of policy. In anticipation of further hikes in series later, this might lead to a sharply strengthening dollar. But Ms. Yellen, and the business community in America would dearly like to see a 2% inflation rate arrive first!

This would signal that all the thousands of  billions of dollars spent on quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, plus the nearly zero rate of interest, has, in fact managed to lift economic activity enough to take and withstand a series of, say, 0.25% rate hikes going forward.

In the 2004-2006 period, America and the Fed under Greenspan hiked rates 17 times  per  CNN’s Richard Quest, but afterwards, then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke cut rates to near zero once again. He was forced to do so  to weather the financial/economic crises of 2007/2008. And there the interest rates have remained, unchanged, ever since.

This concern expressed and reiterated by Yellen, for how an American rate hike may impact the international arena, now that America is ostensibly growing again, including many of America’s trading partners, is the new ground reality for the moderate and cautious.

Not only would America’s recovery be threatened if its buyers couldn’t afford to buy its offerings, but the cascading effect would aggravate the global pain of  world trade, already much slowed by the economic and financial difficulties in Europe, China, amongst the oil and commodity producing nations, and all those interdependent on all of the above.

Sir Paul McCartney wrote and released Fool On The Hill  way back in 1967, but its enigmatic message of a wisdom that people cannot understand and don’t care to heed, is as valid today, as it was when the young McCartney, then a Beatle, first sang it.

Where do we go from here? The operative word, surprisingly perhaps, is “We” and not “Where”. Our national and global interdependence is immense and growing.

Narendra Modi and Indian politics may be changing willy-nilly, and sincerely, in terms of this bracketing of togetherness versus the forces of polarity and difference. Modi could well be prime minister for a decade if he wins Bihar.

And we might also cast a passing thought about how Donald Trump could well become the next president of America. This, not because he is a hatemongering, loud-mouth, right-wing looney, as is being depicted in some quarters; but because his candidature, salience, and possible eventual victory could signal a return to the centre for American politics.

So then,  this is not the position of the joker in the pack, ladies and gentlemen, despite the crazy hair, but the custodian of the ‘most serious position’, as Zakaria put it. Appearances, can sometimes be deceptive.

 (1,441 words)

September 20^th, 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

What Does The Nation Want To Know?

What Does The Nation Want To Know?

Today, on the eve of 9/11, the most horrific attack of terrorism  on US soil, rivalled perhaps only by the Japanese attack of Pearl Harbour that brought America into WWII, there is always room to revaluate the roles and limitations of the media. 

Coincidentally, India too, attacked repeatedly by terrorists over the years, in 1993 certainly, and again on  our own 26/11, the purposefulness of the media, as an instrument that can change the attitudes of people, should perhaps come into focus.

A media circus can be most amusing, but perhaps the ringmasters might yet realise, as a line in the US political drama Newsroom points out, that they, more than many others, even the mass contact politicians and our elected representatives, hold the power to ‘let the wish become the father of the thought’.  

Long ago, Bollywood was identified as a ‘nation builder’. But the jokes about Manoj Kumar’s mannerisms and interminable roles as socialism’s long suffering but stoic/heroic ‘Bharat’, that got his films routine entertainment tax exemptions, were seen to be long-gone passé. 

Certainly, by the time the Farah Khan directed SRK/Deepika Padukone hit Om Shanti Om rolled around. Today’s Bollywood mostly celebrates the good life, as well it might. Quality theatre, such as it is, in Marathi and Bengali mostly dwells on Marxist style ‘injustice’.

Quentin Tarantino was recently quoted, in a leading Indian English language newspaper that sprinkles in Hollywood snippets for our reading pleasure. This, and printing colour pictures of  good looking Hollywood actors, interspersed with the glamorous from Bollywood, Tollywood, and Indian TVLand, what they’re saying,  quotes from directors/producers; is now commonplace.

The film magazine has been married into the newspaper along with a good deal of promotional matter. And this, in most mainstream English and language newspapers, because apparently, people like it. The reading public must like basking in the stardust, as much in the mofussil chai shops, reached by the high circulation vernacular broadsheets, as in the understandably internationalised, and much more frenetic metros.

Well embedded amongst all the routine streaming into our consciousness, Tarantino was recently quoted as saying he didn’t much care for some of the wildly popular fantasy TV serials that he names and shames, even though they’ve been running into several seasons. But he held he did like The Aaron Sorkin directed The Newsroom on HBO, starring Jeff Daniels.

The implication was that it was instructive, and not just mindless entertainment. Which means Tarantino probably thinks his stylishly murderous Kill Bill  films, and his mad Nazi caper, Inglorious Basterds, starring Brad Pitt, were largely educational.

Or perhaps Tarantino’s tastes in entertainment do not support, and cannot abide, fantasia. Taking in the said masterfully produced 25 episode US TV ‘political drama’, parlayed over three seasons, it is striking how the Newsroom  ‘cable-news  network’ storyline, is both relevant to us, and most evocative.

It is all about reporting the doubly verified news, views, and current goings on, nightly, via a charismatic and TRP generating anchor, paid in millions of dollars. The  fictional anchor, Will McAvoy, is supported by a team of brilliant, media qualified, and passionate TV editors, technicians, analysts, reporters and popularity monitors.

It reminds you, not only of a TV news phenomenon, the distance India has travelled, grown out of the sorry DD days, and its I&B ministry monitored feed. And then winds of change, under Bhaskar Ghosh, aided by a young and bushy-tailed  private sector economist called Prannoy Roy. And then, hey presto, the Indian satellite TV revolution, Star TV, with talk of uncontrollable, uncensorable, real-time South Asia and Middle East covering ‘footprints’ .

It shook our politicians and babus, but think what it did to the Bedouin monarchies to the West, and the uniforms to the North and North West of us?

But Newsroom reminds you also, of someone and something closer to today and home. Not just the form of it, but also the idiom, the sensibility and the content.  

I am referring, of course, to our star desi  real-life spearhead and equivalent - the ‘fearless’ Arnab Goswami, articulate, researched, Elvis  style side-burned. He is slickly suited, booted and red-tied, like McAvoy, but nightly, on Times Now.

The man’s dominance of the genre has turned him into a popular culture icon, and all his competitors into reluctant imitators, but only to the extent/limits of their wits, lung-power, and aggression. Goswami has parlayed his entertaining style, that one might describe as the James Brown of English language live news programming, into cult status.

But at the same time, the viewing experience now is a composite of the styles and content delivered by all the other ‘News Channels’ including India Today, CNN-IBN, NewsX, NDTV, ABP, Aaj Tak and others; along with the so-called ‘Business Channels’- ETNow, Bloomberg, CNBC-TV18, NDTV Profit, and so on.

Nothing like this dramatic version of news and views presentation has been seen and heard before on our broadcasts. Not till Goswami grew into his stride in the field. There are a number of other stars in the firmament, of course – the pioneering Prannoy Roy with his quiet and affable style at the top of the pyramid, and his creations grown into media stars in their own right- Rajdeep Sardesai, Barkha Dutt, and indeed Goswami himself, who was also incubated in the NDTV stable.

Even a seasoned print editor/reporter like Shekhar Gupta has made himself known on TV thanks to Roy and his media channels.  But, none of the others have managed to turn their almost nightly presentations into the high octane performance that Arnab brings to town.

However, if the purpose of TV News in English, and the multiple Indian languages alongside, is to inform, influence, even educate the public, does Times Now, and all its competitors, struggling to differentiate themselves, really make the cut? 

The fictional Newsroom, like the fictional White House drama The West Wing, also created by Sorkin, with similarly intelligent verbal repartee being its hallmark, clearly seeks to point out the deeper purposes. This, of quality journalism, and governance, as understood by the script writers and director/producers of the respective hit TV series.

They seek to explore the meaning of the American constitution, the belief systems the founding fathers wanted to uphold, its place in the thinking of the modern nation, grown into the richest and most powerful nation on earth, but in an increasingly complicated world. It dwells again and again on the honourable personal choices one must make as a matter of integrity, honesty, and courage. This, in order not to sink into the morass, the wilful descent, into becoming second-rate.

For India, an emerging nation of the greatest promise, one that has today been identified as the only major economy ‘bright spot’ in an economically troubled world; is the media helping in the shaping of  the  exalted aspects of  its unfolding narrative? Is there an effort, sufficient, by way of thoughtful analysis and responsible critique of the big directional issues?

Or, is it readily and willingly descended, enmeshed, instead, in the exposition of the tawdry spectacle, the bazaar tamasha? And in the business of agitating and exploiting  the prejudices and dogmas  of our lesser selves. After all, there too, in the pits, there is excitement, the energy afforded by the anarchic and irresponsible freedom, fuelled by the workings of a noisy and disorderly democracy with scant accountability to backstop it.

Quickly, in the context, perspective, and flow of current affairs, India has emerged as the least beleaguered survivor. It is the cleanest ‘dirty shirt’ going forward, out of the now battered five nation BRICS. It was, in hindsight, perhaps a hasty coinage by a Goldman Sachs staffer. It has already grown out-of-date, even though BRICS was named not much more than a decade ago.

It is no longer Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa or even Indonesia, once thought fit, just two-three years ago, to become the I of BRICS,  instead of India - that are the fast growth engines. The 21^st  century has been snatched away from their once promising hands, though it is early days yet.

But today, does real life TV journalism, as opposed to the idealisation in a drama series like Newsroom; in CNN, Fox, ABN, ABC and hundreds more, networked across the United States, deliver to the highest standards of journalism? Do they invariably report and analyse news to appeal to the civilised human being and his higher-self? 

Too often, here in India, as well as there in the US, with free and unfettered media, the temptation to sensationalise, capture the ‘breaking news’, distort, inflame, promote a line of propaganda and be partisan, is much more in evidence and vogue.

The broadcast, the print and digital media, realise, despite the growing sophistication and freedom of the Internet, is still a potent weapon. It is capable of swaying public opinion and affecting strategic, political, sociological, and economic outcomes.

The powerful fifth estate then, could well be the beacon and lighthouse for the future of India. Arnab Goswami and his imitators opinionate and editorialise all the time anyway.  So why not do it for the greater good, to promote the best outcomes for an evolving India?

For : Swarajyamag

(1,522 words)

10^th September 2015

Gautam Mukherjee

Modi In Chains

Modi In Chains

There is a stack of political pressure, like the whirling column of a Kansas tornado, atop and upon the Modi government at present, that is greatly hindering its performance. The upcoming Bihar assembly elections however could change everything, both perceptually, and in hard political currency terms, if the BJP and its allies win.

An outright win here will put paid to the growing alignment of opposition forces who have been emboldened by a perceived hesitation, timidity, and drift on the part of Modi and his mostly inexperienced ministers. It will restore Narendra Modi’s own damaged aura and dented prestige, and put the NDA back on top.

In the event, the hopes of similarly winning the UP elections later will instantly brighten, and in turn make the probability of a second NDA term in 2019  look very likely.

And, as things stand today, there is more than a passable chance that this could happen. The crowds that have attended Modi’s rallies in Bihar have been massive. The ones at the Nitish Kumar-Sharad Yadav- Lalu Yadav and Sonia Gandhi jamboree, were far less impressive. It might account for the frequent loss of Nitish Kumar’s temper ever since.

The articulate and fiery Owaisi from  Hyderabad deciding to have his party contest 25 seats in Muslim majority areas in Bihar will dent the Yadav-Muslim combine that Lalu Prasad has long represented. The Mahadalits, substantial in numbers and percentage of the total, have, of course, already left the fold along with their leader, Manjhi.

Mulayam Singh Yadav and Sharad Pawar, wavering in their enthusiasm for the anti-Modi formation, this late in the day, ostensibly because of disagreements on seat-sharing, will weaken the anti-Modi/NDA front too.

Bets are also being taken on how long the old rivals turned allies, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, will continue to pull together, rather than each other apart.

Modi has managed to set the agenda for the Bihar assembly elections once more in terms of his favourite plank of development, rather than traditional caste and creed Bihar politics. This even though the ‘Mahadalit’ crowds have been prominent  at his meetings.

Amit Shah, the BJP President is taking no chances however, and is working very hard at the grass-roots level in the ‘blocks’, the work started months in advance, this being his technique and organisational forte. Shah is wooing the old caste and religious sensitivities, in order to win this crucial election. After the debacle in Delhi at the hands of a political novice, Shah’s reputation and political future depends on it.

Amongst the upper storey atmospherics will probably be the announcement of a long stuck  rail locomotive plant going operative  at last in Bihar, a substantial highway project likewise, and the announcement, on janmashtami, no less, of the 42 years in the making - a substantial ( 10,000 crores worth) honest- to-goodness OROP.

Congress, part of the Bihar plank trying to take on the BJP and the NDA, is obviously stung, and worried by the fact that Modi has pushed through OROP, retrospectively effective from July 2014. There are some aspects yet to be definitely ironed out, such as the exclusion of certain categories of  those retirees who have taken voluntary retirement to seek opportunities on ‘civvy street’. And the contentious issue of revisions in rates, once in five years, instead of the two years hoped for by the veterans.

But, a one man judicial commission has been set up and will look into such anomalies, lacunae, and grievances from affected servicemen.  

The main bulk of OROP, is however through, and should play very well in the Bihar elections as a huge demonstration of the government’s commitment to promises made, and to the armed forces.

Which resonates well also with the fact that prime minister Modi has committed a huge Bihar upliftment package at one of his recent rallies, that had Nitish Kumar scurrying to try and improve upon it from his chief minister’s table!  

Modi has succeeded in turning the contest on development of Bihar into a singular one-upmanship, and this has probably not been lost on the electorate. Also, as the days draw near to the election in October, there will be seen to be more cohesion certainly in the raft put together by the BJP and its allies than that of its rivals.

This is crucial to effect the best results in a winner-takes-all system like ours.  The BJP needs this boost having looked electorally vulnerable, ever since its upset loss in Delhi to the AAP.  Arvind Kejriwal too has taken the opportunity to align himself and his party with Nitish Kumar and the JD(U), to try and move, once again, into the national arena. This is in line with his future ambitions, much beyond being CM of  the restrictive ‘half-state’ of Delhi.

And like all major battles, the outcome will have serious consequences for the loser. For Nitish Kumar it could be curtains for his political career, and he will probably sink the JD(U) alongside. For Lalu Yadav, another attempt at a comeback, at being the power behind the throne, since he is personally debarred from standing for elections, will once again end in failure. And this Bihar election could, if won by the NDA, truly be the beginning of the end for Congress, led by its now  decidedly uncertain and faltering first family.

Likewise, if the NDA loses, its woes, much too substantial in number already, will start to multiply. It is, after all, peculiar circumstance that has the majority NDA government on the back foot. It has even been successfully stymied by the dimunitive rump of the Congress in the Lok Sabha, and by its relative but far from absolute dominance, in the Rajya Sabha.

Nevertheless two key economic bills have failed to pass while several lesser bits of legislation could not even be tabled. Modi himself, the government, the BJP/RSS, and their affiliates, even their NDA allies, in government and outside, who sometimes do not agree in public with the ruling party, are routinely pilloried by the media.

Some vociferous intellectuals and opinion leaders suggest that ‘the idea of India,’ a Nehruvian construct, built up over decades, is under threat under the NDA, and its allegedly partisan point of view.

Industry, jobs, investment, innovation, continue to lag the expectations raised. The GDP, while it is on the upswing, and being hailed externally as the fastest growing in any major economy, is running below forecasts too. The foreign investor, both in the FII and FDI segments, is exasperated and disappointed by the government’s inability to push economic reforms and generally move faster. The stock market is sorely impacted too, though largely as a consequence of external factors, particularly the turbulence in China. The farming community continues to be distressed, and suicides caused by despair, penury, and debt, are not reducing in number either.

The BJP’s coalition government in high profile and sensitive J&K, a first for it, is having trouble governing. Accusations against the BJP chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan as well as the Union External Affairs minister have tarnished its image.

The RSS Conclave ongoing is releasing a daily dose of unctious advice to the government. The opposition, well recovered from its drubbing last May, is busy trying to set the terms of reference.  In a reversal of all usual notions of a ‘responsible opposition’, it proudly tells the world that it has blocked the Land and GST Bills and prevented all debate and the functioning of parliament as a legislature. And this, with scant regard for the costs, both financial and constitutional, wearing black bands of belligerent protest on its sleeves instead.

The charismatic prime minister Modi, almost presidential in stature in the US manner, is likewise beleaguered domestically, while being feted and honoured abroad. His energetic diplomatic overtures have indeed been appreciated, but the catch from all the high profile interactions are still limited. What is undeniable is that India is being noticed internationally and seen to be both engaging and responsible.

Modi, despite all his detractors who are legion, is still very popular, after 15 months in office. He enjoys an almost ascetically incorruptible image, but seems enmeshed and trapped in a set of invisible but strong chains that keep him from functioning well. 

More than ever before in his political career, Modi is unable to garner any substantial credit for any of his government’s modest achievements, and almost none for its far-reaching initiatives.

The people who retain high regard for the prime minister, multiple polls indicate them to be well over 50% , think the NDA deserves more time to deliver before it is judged. Understandably, they say it is unreasonable to expect this government to do in 15 months what has not been done for at least a decade by the preceding UPA government.

But even this debate, has  only come about because this government is seen to be on the defensive. That is why it is attacked, its vision pilloried as empty boasts, its inability to build consensus with a feral opposition, as its innate fascist tendency, ineptitude, and a character flaw, all rolled up together.

But since nothing succeeds like success, a win in Bihar will see Modi breaking free from his chains and this oppressive narrative. He will be restored to lead this country as the man of destiny the people chose in May 2014, and have just reaffirmed their faith in once again.

For: Swarajyamag

(1,570 words)

September 5^th 2015

Gautam Mukherjee