Modi In Chains
There is a stack of political pressure, like the
whirling column of a Kansas tornado, atop and upon the Modi government at present,
that is greatly hindering its performance. The upcoming Bihar assembly
elections however could change everything, both perceptually, and in hard
political currency terms, if the BJP and its allies win.
An outright win here will put paid to the growing
alignment of opposition forces who have been emboldened by a perceived
hesitation, timidity, and drift on the part of Modi and his mostly
inexperienced ministers. It will restore Narendra Modi’s own damaged aura and
dented prestige, and put the NDA back on top.
In the event, the hopes of similarly winning the UP
elections later will instantly brighten, and in turn make the probability of a
second NDA term in 2019 look very
likely.
And, as things stand today, there is more than a
passable chance that this could happen. The crowds that have attended Modi’s
rallies in Bihar have been massive. The ones at the Nitish Kumar-Sharad Yadav-
Lalu Yadav and Sonia Gandhi jamboree, were far less impressive. It might
account for the frequent loss of Nitish Kumar’s temper ever since.
The articulate and fiery Owaisi from Hyderabad deciding to have his party contest
25 seats in Muslim majority areas in Bihar will dent the Yadav-Muslim combine
that Lalu Prasad has long represented. The Mahadalits, substantial in numbers
and percentage of the total, have, of course, already left the fold along with
their leader, Manjhi.
Mulayam Singh Yadav and Sharad Pawar, wavering in
their enthusiasm for the anti-Modi formation, this late in the day, ostensibly
because of disagreements on seat-sharing, will weaken the anti-Modi/NDA front
too.
Bets are also being taken on how long the old rivals
turned allies, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav, will continue to pull together,
rather than each other apart.
Modi has managed to set the agenda for the Bihar
assembly elections once more in terms of his favourite plank of development, rather
than traditional caste and creed Bihar politics. This even though the
‘Mahadalit’ crowds have been prominent at his meetings.
Amit Shah, the BJP President is taking no chances
however, and is working very hard at the grass-roots level in the ‘blocks’, the
work started months in advance, this being his technique and organisational
forte. Shah is wooing the old caste and religious sensitivities, in order to
win this crucial election. After the debacle in Delhi at the hands of a
political novice, Shah’s reputation and political future depends on it.
Amongst the upper storey atmospherics will probably
be the announcement of a long stuck rail
locomotive plant going operative at last
in Bihar, a substantial highway project likewise, and the announcement, on
janmashtami, no less, of the 42 years in the making - a substantial ( 10,000
crores worth) honest- to-goodness OROP.
Congress, part of the Bihar plank trying to take on
the BJP and the NDA, is obviously stung, and worried by the fact that Modi has
pushed through OROP, retrospectively effective from July 2014. There are some
aspects yet to be definitely ironed out, such as the exclusion of certain
categories of those retirees who have
taken voluntary retirement to seek opportunities on ‘civvy street’. And the
contentious issue of revisions in rates, once in five years, instead of the two
years hoped for by the veterans.
But, a one man judicial commission has been set up
and will look into such anomalies, lacunae, and grievances from affected servicemen.
The main bulk of OROP, is however through, and
should play very well in the Bihar elections as a huge demonstration of the
government’s commitment to promises made, and to the armed forces.
Which resonates well also with the fact that prime
minister Modi has committed a huge Bihar upliftment package at one of his
recent rallies, that had Nitish Kumar scurrying to try and improve upon it from
his chief minister’s table!
Modi has succeeded in turning the contest on
development of Bihar into a singular one-upmanship, and this has probably not
been lost on the electorate. Also, as the days draw near to the election in
October, there will be seen to be more cohesion certainly in the raft put
together by the BJP and its allies than that of its rivals.
This is crucial to effect the best results in a
winner-takes-all system like ours. The
BJP needs this boost having looked electorally vulnerable, ever since its upset
loss in Delhi to the AAP. Arvind
Kejriwal too has taken the opportunity to align himself and his party with
Nitish Kumar and the JD(U), to try and move, once again, into the national
arena. This is in line with his future ambitions, much beyond being CM of the restrictive ‘half-state’ of Delhi.
And like all major battles, the outcome will have
serious consequences for the loser. For Nitish Kumar it could be curtains for
his political career, and he will probably sink the JD(U) alongside. For Lalu
Yadav, another attempt at a comeback, at being the power behind the throne,
since he is personally debarred from standing for elections, will once again
end in failure. And this Bihar election could, if won by the NDA, truly be the
beginning of the end for Congress, led by its now decidedly uncertain and faltering first
family.
Likewise, if the NDA loses, its woes, much too substantial
in number already, will start to multiply. It is, after all, peculiar
circumstance that has the majority NDA government on the back foot. It has even
been successfully stymied by the dimunitive rump of the Congress in the Lok
Sabha, and by its relative but far from absolute dominance, in the Rajya Sabha.
Nevertheless two key economic bills have failed to
pass while several lesser bits of legislation could not even be tabled. Modi
himself, the government, the BJP/RSS, and their affiliates, even their NDA
allies, in government and outside, who sometimes do not agree in public with
the ruling party, are routinely pilloried by the media.
Some vociferous intellectuals and opinion leaders
suggest that ‘the idea of India,’ a Nehruvian construct, built up over decades,
is under threat under the NDA, and its allegedly partisan point of view.
Industry, jobs, investment, innovation, continue to
lag the expectations raised. The GDP, while it is on the upswing, and being
hailed externally as the fastest growing in any major economy, is running below
forecasts too. The foreign investor, both in the FII and FDI segments, is
exasperated and disappointed by the government’s inability to push economic
reforms and generally move faster. The stock market is sorely impacted too,
though largely as a consequence of external factors, particularly the
turbulence in China. The farming community continues to be distressed, and
suicides caused by despair, penury, and debt, are not reducing in number
either.
The BJP’s coalition government in high profile and
sensitive J&K, a first for it, is having trouble governing. Accusations
against the BJP chief ministers of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan as well as the
Union External Affairs minister have tarnished its image.
The RSS Conclave ongoing is releasing a daily dose
of unctious advice to the government. The opposition, well recovered from its
drubbing last May, is busy trying to set the terms of reference. In a reversal of all usual notions of a
‘responsible opposition’, it proudly tells the world that it has blocked the
Land and GST Bills and prevented all debate and the functioning of parliament
as a legislature. And this, with scant regard for the costs, both financial and
constitutional, wearing black bands of belligerent protest on its sleeves
instead.
The charismatic prime minister Modi, almost
presidential in stature in the US manner, is likewise beleaguered domestically,
while being feted and honoured abroad. His energetic diplomatic overtures have
indeed been appreciated, but the catch from all the high profile interactions
are still limited. What is undeniable is that India is being noticed
internationally and seen to be both engaging and responsible.
Modi, despite all his detractors who are legion, is
still very popular, after 15 months in office. He enjoys an almost ascetically
incorruptible image, but seems enmeshed and trapped in a set of invisible but
strong chains that keep him from functioning well.
More than ever before in his
political career, Modi is unable to garner any substantial credit for any of
his government’s modest achievements, and almost none for its far-reaching
initiatives.
The people who retain high regard for the prime
minister, multiple polls indicate them to be well over 50% , think the NDA
deserves more time to deliver before it is judged. Understandably, they say it
is unreasonable to expect this government to do in 15 months what has not been
done for at least a decade by the preceding UPA government.
But even this debate, has only come about because this government is
seen to be on the defensive. That is why it is attacked, its vision pilloried
as empty boasts, its inability to build consensus with a feral opposition, as
its innate fascist tendency, ineptitude, and a character flaw, all rolled up
together.
But since nothing succeeds like success, a win in
Bihar will see Modi breaking free from his chains and this oppressive narrative.
He will be restored to lead this country as the man of destiny the people chose
in May 2014, and have just reaffirmed their faith in once again.
For: Swarajyamag
(1,570 words)
September 5th 2015
Gautam Mukherjee
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