Is Biden, Mired In Two Wars, Going To Be A One-Term President

Incumbent President Joe Biden,81, standing for re-election in 2024, knows, after more than fifty years in the Senate, and as President Obama’s two term Vice President, that incumbents generally win.

He has come a long way from suggesting he was just a ‘bridge’ president, and a definite one-termer in 2019. He might even had meant it at the time. Now, he wants to go the distance into a second-term, rocking into his late eighties, experience, and infirmities, in tow. But yes, he is in good health, just like his rival. Biden gaffes do not necessarily make him senile, and can hold their own against various Trumpisms.  

Biden does not, however, as staff writer Linda Feldman of The Christian Science Monitor puts it, have ‘a core base of enthusiasm’ for his candidacy in the Democratic Party. Fine, but there is a TINA factor at play, and Biden does not have 91 felonies against himself either. Felonies, and other legalistic land- mines, any of which could disqualify Trump and open up a whole new race.

However, by way of contrast, the other ancient, his pugnacious challenger Donald Trump, does enjoy massive core support in the Republican Party. Donald Trump thinks, controversially, that the election was stolen from him four years ago, and is spoiling for a rematch. The swing states and polls support Trump. He could win quite handily. The election, in November 2024 is still eleven months away of course, and much could change.

Meanwhile, inflation has hit, skyrocketing grocery and food prices. This may not be grand economics, but it is lived experience for the people. People want to see the prices that existed pre Covid. This, of course, is unlikely because of the bruising the economy has taken over two lockdown years.

The domestic economy, is, in fact, growing now, and has staved off a recession. Unemployment is not a major issue. The Democrat position on free abortion rights makes sense to most women across the two main parties. Most women want the right to decide and do not agree with  male Republican religious fundamentalists who have organised a ban by overthrowing the Roe-Wade judgement.  

Other broader issues such as national security when there are frequent shootings of innocents in public places are being debated and additional measures contemplated. However, the American fundamental right to bear arms is not going away anytime soon.  Immigration is a double-edged sword. Cheap illegal labour on the one hand, and demographic pressures on the other. We have a similar problem with four million or more Bangladeshi infiltrators here in India.

Challenger Donald Trump, has a way of outraging the Democrat voter with his radical pronouncements such as calling certain folk vermin at a veterans’ rally. It works with the White Blue Collars, but not so much with others.

This Trump loud-mouth will work in favour of Biden within his party and support groups, as he invokes the ‘soul of the nation’ like a good Catholic.

Given his long experience in politics, Biden and his handlers, should be able to best any internal Democrat challengers. Biden also connects well with small groups and people in small towns, his ‘Scranton Joe’ image from his hometown in Pennsylvania, and likes going out to speak to them. Being the incumbent president is of immense value in these acts of humility.

In foreign policy, the only ones that can be glad all over are the ones that run the huge military industrial complex in America. They are making massive profits from sales. War is always good for such people.

 Biden’s term began with an abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan leaving behind billions in sophisticated weaponry. While the president got good domestic press for his decisiveness and bringing the troops home, it left a power vacuum in the region, with security implications for several nations, including India.

The war in Ukraine, backed massively by the US and NATO, seems, in year two, to be stuck in the mud and snow. Oil and gas prices are on the edge ever since this war in Europe began. It started a spiral of increasing costs and prices of almost everything for the Western Europeans. Most are not growing and, on the edge of, or actually in, recession.

The sanctions against Russia have not worked when it comes to petroleum, with Russia selling all its output to China and India. In other areas, the Western sanctions have put a check on componentry for Russian arms manufacturing and other sectors. But countries such as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan (who sell ammunition to both sides), North Korea, have made up for some of the shortages. China is not directly involved in military supplies as yet, but is backing Russia.  

The other new war in the Middle East, with Israel staunchly backed by the US, in its battle with the Hamas in Gaza, threatens to spread to and disrupt the sea-lanes of the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, based in Yemen, are slinging Iranian-made missiles, and employing Iranian-made drones, on unarmed merchant ships and oil tankers. Rerouting is a very expensive business, that would more than double the freight rates. Iran denies any involvement. The war has also bled into Syria and against the Hezbollah in Lebanon to an extent. Israel is quite prepared to attack Iran directly and has done so in small part.

There are Muslim groups in America vociferously opposed to the unstinted support to Israel, but this is long term policy for America, unlikely to be affected by radical press, university activism, or ethnic minority outrage. But will these groups, mostly Democrat, vote for Biden? If they don’t, they cannot expect any better from the Republicans either.

There is another thing to consider. Incumbent presidents at war, or supporting them, usually win their second terms convincingly.  The public does not like to change horses in mid-stream. Comparisons between Biden and previous one term presidents may not be appropriate given the context.

As things stand, the war in Israel-Gaza is likely to end much before the campaign period does, with opportunities for statesmanship on the part of President Biden. In Ukraine, President Putin of Russia has apparently indicated he is nor averse to a ceasefire. If the US is able to bring the Ukraine war to a close it will stand Biden in immense good measure.

It is true that Biden’s approval rating at present is below 40% and most pollsters think it is a dead heat between him and Trump, but the presidential campaign has not yet truly begun.

For India, it matters little who wins between Biden and Trump, assuming there are no upsets at the line up on both sides. There are, on the face of it, no alternative nominees for the top of the ticket in either political party.

What matters for India, is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to win a third consecutive term, with a majority for the BJP. This would mean policy continuity. With the Indian economy chugging ahead at between 6 and 7 percent in GDP per annum, we will be well placed to receive the winner in America with warmth and confidence.

The strategic relationship between India and the United States has been painstakingly formulated over several Democrat and Republican administrations. It has largely overcome its hesitations. China is the unabashed contender for world domination, chafing at the bit. The India-America relationship has already contributed towards giving the dragon some pause. This, as it wonders upon, and ponders on, its relative strength vis a vis two battle-hardened and formidable technological powers/armed forces.

India’s relationship with America has consolidated its gains, is now definitely stable, and poised for further growth.  

(1,279 words)

December 28^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee