Bangladesh Elections On January 7^th 2024 Likely To Elect Incumbent Shaikh Hasina To A Fourth Consecutive Term

There is a case for, and a tradition of, strong leadership in Islamic countries. The West often fails to understand the wisdom in this, and this has led to its trying to impose a version of democracy on a number of these countries. The result has been disastrous, unless such ‘democracies’ in turn, impose a version that resembles a near dictatorship.

Several Islamic nations are still absolute monarchies, with strict police state approaches to law and order, dissent and debate.

Others have uniformed  military men at the top. Wherever such governments have been toppled, as was the case after the Arab Spring movement, general chaos ensued, until another tough no nonsense leader emerged. Where no such one leader is thrown up, the country is generally ruled by factional warlords that each hold sway over different parts of the country, as in Libya.

In Pakistan, from which East Pakistan broke away to form Bangladesh in 1971, democracy has not really taken root, unlike India. This, even though it has elections, and a parliament. It is de facto run by the Pakistan Army and its intelligence wing, the ISI. And it has seen its share of political assassinations over the years since its founding in 1947.

 President Shaikh Hasina escaped harm during the assassination of her father, by being in West Germany at the time along with her sister Shaikh Rehana.

The legendary Bongobondhu Mujibur Rahman, her father, the founder president of Bangladesh, and most of her immediate family were killed by a group of Bangladesh Army personnel on 15 August 1975. It was a bloody coup d’etat barely four years after Bangladesh came into being, followed by a series of counter coups over several years.

Sheikh Hasina was barred from returning to Bangladesh immediately. She was given sanctuary by India, and was only able to return to Bangladesh on 17^th May 1981. When she got to Dhaka, she inherited leadership of the Awami League, the political party founded by her father, and came to power for the first time after the elections of 1996. 

Her political rival was, and is, her erstwhile collaborator Khalida Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Khaleda Zia won her first term in 1991 but resigned to a caretaker government followed by Sheikh Hasina winning her first term in 1996. The precedent therefore for the demand for President Hasina to handover to an impartial caretaker government, comes from this 1996 election.

In 2001, Khaleda Zia and the BNP won again, as it turned out, probably for the last time. During 2006-2008 Sheikh Hasina was in jail on extortion charges. When she was released, she won the elections in 2008, and has been in power ever since. As of 17^th November 2023, Sheikh Hasina is the longest-serving female head of government in history. 

Now at 76 years of age, Sheikh Hasina presides over a rapidly expanding economy and has reined in both Islamic radicalism and a military with a history of meddling in politics. Her rival Khalida Zia’s BNP is backed  not only by radical Islamists, but also the Pakistan Army and ISI to boot.

However, Sheikh Hasina is walking an image tightrope for her staunchly authoritarian ways. She is virulently criticised by the Left in the West as well as her political rivals.

The US has crafted some curious visa restrictions against Bangladeshis who obstruct a free and fair election process, from coming to visit. Earlier, in 2021, the US Treasury sanctioned Bangladesh’s Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), implicated in extra judicial disappearances. Shaikh Hasina sees much of this as the application of double standards that ignore much of the good work she and her government has done over the years.

However, she enjoys the continued confidence of India, that was very helpful in the birthing of Bangladesh in 1971, and this goes on under the Modi government today. There are increasing trade, commerce and transportation linkages between India and Bangladesh that are aiding India’s Look East Policy. China is also an investor in Bangladesh and Shaikh Hasina is quite keen on joining BRICS.

The US, as the principal importer of Bangladeshi readymade garments, (the raw materials come from India), at $ 55 billion, 85% of all its exports, and some 16% of its GDP, wants her to hold free and fair elections.

There is a wage agitation amongst the garment workers, most likely instigated by the opposition, despite their emoluments being increased from $75 a month to $ 114. The workers want more, but the government has refused further increases, in order to maintain the competitiveness of Bangladeshi garment exports. 

Khalida Zia’s BNP and other supporting political parties have threatened to boycott the elections (once again, having done so in 2014), unless Shaikh Hasina resigns and appoints a caretaker government. Khalida Zia is gravely ill now and under house arrest for alleged corruption, and other senior leaders are in exile.

However, under the circumstances of deep political hostility from the opposition, and violent agitations ongoing, this seems unlikely. Shaikh Hasina has survived 19 assassination attempts over the years as an illustration of the political atmosphere. And the device of the caretaker government at election time, used widely between 1996 and 2008, is no longer necessary following a constitutional amendment in 2011. This was necessitated by a military backed caretaker government that clung to power for nearly a year from 2006.

The elections have just been announced for January 7^th 2024 by the Bangladesh Election Commission.  A boycott from the opposition, despite exhortations to the contrary from the EC, will result in a certain victory for the Awami League and Sheikh Hasina.

(935 words)

November 17^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee