Will Amit Shah Succeed Narendra Modi Or Will It Be Yogi Adityanath?

Union Home Minister and Minister of Cooperation Amit Shah has come a long way. He is not only the internal security maven but jockeys the nation’s varied cooperative movements. This, in addition to his invaluable contribution to election strategy via the current BJP Party President, his own handpick, JP Nadda.

It all began, in a sense, when he and Narendra Modi, one an RSS Karyakarta then, and the other who entered the fray via the AVBP, were tasked to infiltrate the powerful co-operative movement at the grassroots level in Gujarat.

This meant the credit cooperatives, and principally, the vast milk cooperatives, that have some 36 lakh members today. In rural Gujarat political terms, the money and influence/patronage the cooperatives wielded were crucial.

The most influential and well-known, Amul, a brand in its own right to rival any, accounts for a turnover of over Rs. 60,000 crores today, and exports its products to various countries as well.  

The cooperative movement in Gujarat, in the nineties, was controlled by the Congress Party that also ruled the state. The then BJP leadership saw it as a potent political avenue to come to power in the state.

Modi and Shah delivered in spades, and developed a special bond travelling the dusty mofussil roads of Gujarat on foot, motorcycle, and bus. This success catapulted both to power a few years later, Modi as chief minister of Gujarat, when he won the elections in 2001. By then he was a well-known figure in rural and urban Gujarat. And Amit Shah came in as his multi-bagging home minister. Shah was also put in-charge of several other ministries.

The multiple and consecutive terms that Modi won with a BJP majority in Gujarat, with Amit Shah alongside, next paved his way to the centre as prime minister. Here too, he won with the first absolute majority for the NDA in over 30 years. The last majority government at the centre had been that of Rajiv Gandhi, won in the aftermath of the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.

Modi has now been in power for two consecutive terms at the centre, and is likely to deliver another win for the NDA in 2024, just round the bend.

Amit Shah, in his late fifties now, is widely seen to have the heft, the election winning savvy, and the administrative experience at the centre and state, to succeed Narendra Modi. He also enjoys the unwavering confidence of the prime minister and that of the ideological fount, the RSS.

The key to his likely elevation to the top job when the time comes, is partially his work with the cooperatives as its first union minister, as of 2021. This, in addition to the Union Home Ministry, traditionally regarded as the No.2 position in the hierarchy of the Union Cabinet. The crucial thing, of course, is to be a charismatic vote-getter as well as a election strategist. In this too, Amit Shah has had considerable nation-wide experience.

Amit Shah has accomplished quite a lot with the Cooperation Ministry too. The centre is now in the business of controlling the cooperative movement nationally in a much more pointed way. It has, even in the past, overseen the activity from the Agriculture Ministry but it was neglected and not very effective. But now that the cooperative movement has gone beyond just agriculture, to labour, construction, and other new areas, in replacement of moribund and often corrupt unions, a new ministry was called for.

Cooperatives are also a state subject, with a registrar for cooperatives in each, but even the RBI oversees the cooperative rural banks.

Some analysts have described the cooperative movement as the ‘scaffolding’ that holds up rural India, to give an idea of its importance. For a start, the budgetary support from the centre for the cooperation ministry has been increased seven-fold in under two years. Some taxes on the sugar sector have been removed outright. The MAT (minimum alternate tax), has been reduced to 15% from 18%. The surcharge on cooperative organisations has been reduced to 7% from the erstwhile 12%.

The Centre is computerising cooperative societies, in order to connect them directly to NABARD (National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development), for which Rs. 6,500 crores has been set aside.

Most recently, a newly created National Cooperative Organics Limited (NCOL) will offer organic products under the brand name Bharat Organics. It will ensure the availability of certified organic products in the market. Some 439 laboratories are to be set up around the country for the certification of farm produce. About 50% of the profits from the sale of Bharat Organics products will be transferred directly to member farmers.

Six products have been launched already- namely tur dal, chana dal, sugar rajma, basmati rice, and sonamasoori rice. These will be sold via Mother Dairy and Safal outlets, as well as various online platforms. Two more such cooperatives, like NCOL have also been set up, these for seeds and exports.

The attempt here is to strike a balance between high fertilizer use in commercial farming, very popular during the Green Revolution that led to India becoming food surplus despite a four-fold increase in population. This because chemical fertilizers in high use are harmful for the soil and water. So organic is an essentially ecofriendly approach and intended balancer.

Amit Shah is also using the Police that come under his Home Ministry to reenergise a national tree plantation drive, with species chosen carefully for their longevity and oxygen creating abilities.

In the big picture, the Ministry of Cooperation is making out model bye-laws in order to make the cooperatives multi- purpose/functional. Computerisation of cooperatives is well underway. To drive the movements to the grassroots some two lakh new societies are being formed at the Panchayat/Village level.

There are many cooperative activities on the anvil. A thrust is being given to decentralised granaries/ grain storages under the cooperative movements, to ensure near home food security. Common e-service centres are being set up for ease of access. The cooperatives are to be used to distribute LPG, set up retail stores at petrol pumps, take on new petrol/diesel dealerships.  They are to set up generic medicine outlets, establish fertilizer distribution centres. They will set up drone manufacturing for multiple uses. Develop more extensive micro-financing and rural credit centres. Maintain the piped water supply. Set up decentralised Solar plants for electricity, and so on.

The cooperative movements can well be an alternate method to energise the hinterland apart from the rural mandi system. The sugar cooperatives of Maharashtra, for example, are the basis of the strength of the NCP and the Pawar family. When it is driven from the centre by the BJP, it has implications and great potential at the national level.

It may be early days for the Ministry of Cooperation, set up only in July 2021, but the prospects are excellent as a power driver in five years-time. That Amit Shah could benefit hugely from his administration of this ministry is in no doubt.

His competitor for the prime ministership is also young and charismatic. Yogi Adityanath has won two consecutive terms in Uttar Pradesh, an electoral feat not seen for decades past. He is bulldozing his way ahead to transform the economy of Uttar Pradesh to the level of $ 1 trillion per annum. He is also cooperating fully for the largely centre driven infrastructure development in his state. The UP Defence Corridor, and the vast development in Ayodhya and in Varanasi are major propellants. Yogi Adityanath’s main attractiveness for the top job is his effective handling of law and order in the state. He has been so good at it that a large section of the BJP voter base wants to see him as prime minister. Or, if that is not possible, in five or so years, given his lack of experience at the centre, as Home Minister. People think Yogi Adityanath will be a very good fit in Amit Shah’s present job. That, of course, may work out very well for both.

The question is, can Uttar Pradesh stay with the BJP without Yogi Adityanath at its helm? Can BJP do without Uttar Pradesh and still win in 2029? Can Yogi Adityanath win UP for BJP by making election forays from the Centre?

(1,382 words)

November 9^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee