Build Mandirs, Win Assemblies, Break Opposition Parties, Implement UCC: What Will Work Best For General Elections 2024?

Building up to general elections between March and May 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes to the fray with quite an arsenal.

These are diverse and potent-the economy, defence preparedness and manufacturing, aatmanirbhar, industry, commerce, welfare including rural roads, electricity connections, water on tap, gas for cooking, subsidies sent directly to recipients, political savvy, infrastructure, agricultural modernisation and conveniences, minimum support prices, improving storage facilities, digital economies, stepped up international diplomacy, anti-corruption, promotion of Hindutva, inclusiveness under Sabka Vikas, reform and more reform, modernisation, connectivity-physically through Gati Shakti and digitally via 5G and satellite. The list is almost endless.

However, the reason why BJP came to power was its ideology, its championing of Hindutva as an alternative to the Nehruvian Idea of India. This cannot be lost sight of as it goes forth to win its third successive term.

The credibility and impact of constructing the grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya on the very spot believed to be the birthplace of Lord Ram, by early 2024, cannot probably be overstated.

The whole city of Ayodhya is also being transformed to suit, with new star hotels, conveniences, internal roads revamped, as well as excellent connectivity by road, train and air to reach the ancient place.  A very large number of pilgrims and tourists are expected and this will favourably impact the economy of the entire area.

It has taken over a century of struggle in recent times to come to this point. It is this very Ayodhya movement from the 1980s onwards that propelled the BJP into power.

The Hindutva effort is still ongoing - in the Gyanvapi Mosque/ Shiva Temple litigation at Varanasi. Its revered Shivling has now been found in the mosque’s wazoo area. This litigation follows on from the commissioning of the neighbouring grand Kashi-Vishwanath corridor, executed by the Modi government. A number of the ancient Ghats are now also being renovated. Varanasi or Kashi is receiving extensive connectivity, development and decongestion.

There is also ongoing litigation regarding the Shahi Idgah Mosque which has encroached on 13.23 acres of the land belonging to the Mathura Temple, built to mark the most holy Sri Krishna Janmabhoomi.

Freeing these two ancient temples in particular from the mosques that have been built since, have been long-standing pledges of the BJP. Progress here, in either or both cases, could provide fresh frisson to the Hindutva cause.  

Can all this occur before the general elections in 2024? If not, a High Court verdict, or even more ongoing favourable remarks from the lower Courts, should suffice for the election campaigns.

The BJP has also improved connectivity and infrastructure at the major pilgrimage centres unabated.

The Hindus believe these are all vital steps towards the establishment of India as a Hindu Rashtra, making it the only declared Hindu country in the world, after suitable amendments are made to the Constitution. They expect the BJP to accomplish this at the appropriate time.  

Hindu Rashtra does not mean intolerance for the second largest majority and other small minorities, nor any interference in their right to worship. This has been made clear by the early Hindutva ideologues. Hindu ruled India has always been tolerant and pluralistic since ancient times. This cannot be said of the Mughals and other Islamic rulers, and the Portuguese Catholics. The Protestant British used evangelicals and priests to convert many people, particularly the poor, but fortunately this was not at the point of a sword.

 In recent times, the demand to do away with the form of twisted secularism that has been used since independence to discriminate against the Hindu majority has grown insistent.

The Uniform Civil Code (UCC), likely to be implemented at last, is welcomed by the Hindu masses, as well as Muslim women, particularly from the 85% of Muslims that constitute the Pasmanda groups. This is borne out by their stepping forward to express their support. By the same token the reactionary bodies amongst the Muslim orders have reared up in protest, along with some of the opposition parties like the DMK.   

If the UCC is passed by parliament after discussion and debate, it will jolt the hold of the unelected All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), elements from Jammu & Kashmir such as Mehbooba Mufti and her PDP Party, various fatwa issuing organisations like the Deoband Seminary and the Jama Masjid in Delhi, the Sayyids, and other higher caste Muslim men. 

Quite a few of the higher caste educated Muslim women however, chafing under discriminatory Shariah practices, have come out in support of the UCC.

 If the UCC is implemented, the BJP will have successfully driven a wedge through the middle of Muslim otherness. Since the second largest majority is now some 200 million strong, this will be a very significant development. Ironically, many Muslim countries including Pakistan, do not practice Shariah Law.

Other minorities should have fewer problems with the UCC, even less than political parties out to misrepresent the matter.

The Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Chhattisgarh coming up shortly will be hotly contested.

Opposition unity has just been dealt a severe blow in Maharashtra with Ajit Pawar splitting the NCP. Will he deliver at least 36-37 MLAs in his camp to meet the requirements of the anti-defection law? He says he has the support of over 40.  

With 48 seats to the Lok Sabha coming from Maharashtra, it is second only to Uttar Pradesh.

There is some consternation in the Shinde Shiv Sena over this development, but there are several unfilled ministerial berths that should reassure its MLAs. The chances of 16 members of the Shinde faction including Eknath Shinde himself being disqualified by the BJP Speaker under the anti-defection law is slight.  

This NCP split has put a big dent in the confidence of Opposition unity.

Assuming that the Maharashtra ‘triple engine sarkar’ moves ahead without derailment, it puts the spotlight next on Bihar.

Forever restless, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar reportedly wants to move back to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). He might use the recent corruption prosecution against Tejaswi Yadav, his deputy, as a pretext. He did it once before in 2017, so why not now?

Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Its assembly presently consists of 243 seats, with the Rashtriya Janata Dal(RJD) leading with 75 seats, the BJP with 74, the Janata Dal United (JDU) with 43, Congress with 19, and the Communist Party Of India Marxist Leninist (CPI(ML)) with 12. Other small parties together make up 20 seats.  

Union Home Minister Amit Shah and the BJP chief election strategist has stopped swearing that the doors of the BJP will forever be closed for Nitish Kumar. Splitting the ranks of the JDU/RJD coalition, could precipitate an election if Nitish Kumar cannot carry all of his flock. However, the JDU MLAs reportedly want to go back to the BJP alliance. If all goes well, it is expected to provide a combined total of 117, tantalisingly close to the half way mark of 137. This would, of course cast another body blow to opposition unity.

Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka have their long festering fault lines too. In Karnataka, a 28 Lok Sabha MPs state, JD Kumaraswamy has already hinted at his willingness to ally with the BJP. What will be the stance of Congress’ DK Sivakumar and his followers?

 There is widely held perception that the NDA is most likely to win in 2024. However, others, mostly the ones left out, say that the voter does not like this hook or by crook method of toppling governments, and won’t vote for the BJP/NDA as a consequence. There is also rising concern that a number of tainted politicians facing corruption charges are being absorbed. The BJP is, and will be taking a calculated risk.

Elsewhere, The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) controlled by the Badal family, has indicated it wants to return to the NDA. The AAP, in power in Punjab is facing increasing headwinds. SAD senses it could make a comeback.

Telangana may not fall into the grasp of the BJP by itself this December when the state goes to the polls, but the BJP tally should improve sharply. If however, there is an alliance with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), as is being alleged by Congress, they could form a winning coalition.

Andhra Pradesh also wants early elections at the same time as Telangana.

There is healthy growth in the economy. At nearly 7 % in GDP,  it is the fastest growth in any major economy, and there are substantial foreign exchange reserves approaching $ 600 billion.  

The unwieldy opposition caravan cannot match all this dynamism in the near term, if at all. This even if they had any ideas beyond old fashioned socialist freebies with no regard for revenue generation to pay for them. However, they are harping on price rise and unemployment with some justification.

All in all, the months leading up to general elections in 2024 will see heightened political activity, with each side trying to turn the tables on the other.

(1,507 words)

For week starting July 10^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee