Aspirational Touring Of The US Europe Other Places Had Over 10 crore Indians Spending $ 35 Billion Between 2017 and 2022 Plus Shopping Eating Hotels Sight Seeing- Permanent Immigration To The US Canada Australia Is Also In Top Gear

The Indian Middle Class, like the rest of the population, is growing exponentially, with constant migration to the cities that now includes more than 20 tier 2 cities. The percentage of the population employed in farming and services in rural areas is declining in keeping with mechanisation and international trends, even as rural prosperity is increasing alongside the GDP.

The easy access to social media, smart phones, streaming, TV, films, has increased exposure to the outside world to an unprecedented degree amongst all sections of the population. It is not surprising that most Indians now see the world as their oyster. Socialism is largely dead, replaced by welfare, aspiration, education, greater life expectancy, nutrition, health, higher income, and the realisation that India will soon be the third biggest economy in the world. It will have more than $ 10 trillion in GDP by 2030. Every day, the road, rail, air, infrastructure in the country is also being rapidly transformed.

The Opposition bemoans the unemployment situation and high food prices in the lead up to multiple elections. They do it so often that one might be forgiven for thinking that things are going very badly indeed despite Prime Minister Modi pointing out all the progress we have made in the last 10 years. Progress greater by far than ever before. But here you have it. Astounding overseas and domestic tourism figures that cannot happen without money in hand.

Now, in the second decade of 21^st century, and post Covid, international travel seems to have exploded amongst Indians. Who can say there is not enough disposable income amongst the Indian middle class? A middle class headed towards a third of the overall population of 1.44 billion. It may be too disparate  and opinionated to be a force  in elections, but even that will change.

Indians account for 10% of all visa applications at present to countries that require them. This despite a rupee/US dollar rate of exchange approaching an astronomical Rs. 85 to the dollar.

America with its B1/B2 visit visas, backed up for more than 400 days for Indians, still had 5.1 lakh desi visitors in the April-June 2023 quarter. Canada sent 26 million visitors to the US, but they don’t need visas.

India’s statistics are just behind the United Kingdom (who don’t need US visas either, being cousins from across the pond, firm US allies, and former colonial overlords), at 9.7 million visitors.

Mexico, next door, sent 7.2 million. Germany (at 4.7 million), and others from Europe, like the French, sent less tourists to America than the Indians in the April-June 2023 quarter.

Similar things are happening to domestic travel for leisure, pilgrimage, with the advent of the Vande Bharat trains, great highways, more airports and airlines, high car ownership. So much so, that the airlines have had to lower their domestic fares by up to 30% to try and compete with the vastly improved trains.   

Indians have spent $ 11.44 billion on overseas travel in the nine-month period of the current fiscal, between April to January. This is not counting shopping, and sight-seeing, entertaining, hotels, eating and so on, once abroad. This could easily double this figure if totted up. There is no restriction on how much foreign currency Indians can take abroad, provided that if it is more than $ 10,000 in currency or traveller’s cheques, it must be declared. And then there are the credit and forex cards. Till February 2023, the figure rose to $12.51 billion, up 104% over the same period last year.

It is estimated that the number of Indians travelling abroad for holidaying will treble by 2025. That means about 40% of international travellers will be from India. Its no wonder that Switzerland reckoned Indian tourists were accounting for two or three percentage points of their economy even two decades ago. It is why they have welcome boards out for Indians. Many others are following suit.

This is now being further driven by aspirational travel from tier 2 cities and budget carriers. The well-off, a category being upgraded all the time, will number more than 100 million people by themselves.

Overall, 10.3 crore Indians travelled abroad between 2017 and 2022 with 3.8 crores amongst them seeking to emigrate or acquire permanent residency in foreign countries like the US, Canada and Australia. Who are these people? Most of the 18 million Indian diaspora, the largest in the world, are temporary migrants to West Asia who remit home most of the USD 100 billion per annum now. Others are students, most of whom do come back to India.

In the 19^th century, aristocratic British in the heyday of the British Empire undertook at least one ‘Grand Tour’ to widen their perspective. It was to the ‘Continent’, that lasted, in those horse and carriage days, from Paris and Vienna, Switzerland and Germany to the South, about a year. Lingering in warm, artistic and cultured Southern Europe, in Italy and Spain, was particularly popular.

Going on the steam ship to America was also attractive to some, crossing on luxurious ocean liners to New York. But America, beyond her main cities like New York, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, New Orleans, St Louis, and Los Angeles, tended to be exotic in the 19^th century. The travel, over vast expanses, by the newly established train lines, or the horse drawn mail carriage, with armed guards, or both, was a little dangerous. Much of the hinterland, rivers, forests, mountains, the wild life, Bisons, the native Red Indians, was still relatively untamed. The Wild West was not a myth. Many witnessed the Wild Bill Hickock live travelling shows to form an idea.

Authors, poets, journalists, extolled the virtues of this travel and destinations for the others who could not afford it. There was, of course, no TV or radio, let alone social media. Even photography was relatively new. People relied on painters and landscape artists.

In the 20^th century, with the advent of early air travel in the 1930s, again it was the rich that could afford to go abroad by the smallish aeroplanes that could take about 30 passengers. The old Victorian era sea-side resorts within Britain had to suffice for the rest.

It was much the same for Indians. The Maharajahs sailed, some with a year’s supply of Ganga Jal for their drinking and cooking. Others flew, when the planes presented themselves, making multiple stops to Europe and back.  By the latter part of the 20^th century, after the two world wars, passenger ships had largely retreated from the travel map, except for the huge cruise liners, and air travel had been democratised.

Cheap tickets, charter aircraft tours, had secretaries and office boys jetting off to Spain for two weeks. And of course, farther afield to Asia, Africa. But it was still the province of the affluent West in the beginning.

Later, the same packaged tours and individually curated visits, some with Indian vegetarian and Jain cuisine cooks in tow, came to places like India, which were neither rich, nor had oil to sell for petrodollars. But, nevertheless, the international travel bug had bitten. If not multiple times at first, certainly once in a lifetime. If not Europe and America, then certainly Dubai and Thailand was possible.

 In addition, since 2011, more than 1.6 million have become citizens of foreign countries including 1,83,741 in 2022 alone.

1,63,370 Indians renounced their citizenship in 2021.Of these 78,284 became US citizens, followed by Australia 23,533, Canada 21,597, and Britain 14, 637. Of course, given our population of 1.4 billion plus, the emigration numbers are very small for us even as they are significant at No.1 for the host countries. Many are following their relatives already settled abroad. Others are minorities such as Christians who feel comfortable emigrating to Christian countries in the  First World. Or Jews, the younger of whom emigrate to Israel. The Anglo-Indians have gone. So have the Armenians. Now even a few of the young Kolkata Chinese. But the largest minority, nearly 200 million Muslims, have largely stayed put. It is therefore ironical that parts of the Western media call the present administration communal and anti-Muslim.

As India continues to prosper and acquire international influence, the people who want to renounce their citizenship may decline further, even amongst such pockets.  The Times, as Nobel laureate Bob Dylan put it in his youth, are-a-changing.

(1,393 words)

October 25^th , 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee