The G21 New Delhi Summit With 43 Countries -Invitees, Multilateral Institutions, The Global South & The African Union

This G21 can only be seen as Bharat’s unprecedented and spectacular coming- out-party at the high table bedecked with gleaming silverware. It is hosted by our charismatic Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has established himself as a significant and influential global leader.  

The attendance underlines the recognition of this country as the unstoppable 3^rd largest global power by 2030, with likely a $ 10 trillion plus economy by then.

The first dramatic accomplishment, at the very start of the deliberations today at this mighty gathering, was the induction of the 55 country African Union as a permanent member of the G20 to make it up to G21.

This represents the result of not only Bharat’s steadfast sponsorship and advocacy of this cause, but the recognition of a changing world order. It has been dominated for long and is still led by the G7 countries. Now they, at the urging of India, the obsolescence and racism of old methods, are willing to change.  The economic and political world order has remained almost unchanged since WWII with the West in the driver’s seat. However, the emergence of ancient and modern countries like Bharat that believes in its inclusive and peaceful principles has made an impact. Amongst Prime Minister Modi’s many ‘one world’ coinages, he uses the term ‘Humancentric’ which seems to resonate with other leaders.  

In a counter to Chinese neo-imperialism, institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are going to receive a $ 200 billion injection announced by the United States. Terms will be renegotiated to offer better lending formats to the African Union and other countries of the Global South, groaning under massive and unsupportable debt.

African countries have had to pay as much as five times as much for its multilateral loans which have ended up badly roiling their economies. China has in recent years exploited this anomaly with rapacious terms for  their development loans. These were extended, sometimes to access rich mineral resources, and at other times to push China’s Belt and Road Programme (BRI). Almost all of it however has been bogged down as bad debt because there is little bankability of these developments. It has, in turn, been putting immense pressure on the Chinese economy as well.

The most powerful and significant countries of the world are all here in New Delhi for the two-day summit, with two notable exceptions.

President Putin preoccupied with the Ukraine War, sent his venerable Foreign Minister Lavrov. President Xi Jinping, probably occupied with immense domestic economic ‘turmoil’, as characterised by senior members of the ruling CCP, sent Premier Li who is well known for his economic management. However this came unstuck with his disastrous handling of the severe lockdowns in major Chinese cities during Covid.

Both Russia and China heads, seen as ever closer allies, stayed away from the recent ASEAN Summit in Jakarta as well.

The United States, represented in New Delhi by President Joe Biden has expressed disappointment with China’s no-show. Its tacit and active support to Russia in the conduct of the Ukraine War, along with its belligerent satellite North Korea, is of particular concern. America has also criticised China’s latest bizarre ‘standard map’ that not only claims various territories in India and along the South China Sea, but seeks to disrupt the ‘rules-based-world-order’.

A number of affected countries at ASEAN, and here at the G20 Summit, along with Bharat, have condemned the new Chinese map and China’s attempt at muscle flexing.

Bharat pulled out all the stops to set the environs with flowers and fountains, a spanking new state-of-the-art venue, the host hotels tricked out to be at the top of their game, the approaches, monuments, selected shopping locations, Bharat’s proud digital accomplishments and processes, enormous security preparations, were all decked out in celebratory mode. This comes at the culmination of some 40 meetings of the G20 spread out all over the country.

Inside and outside the summit venue, Bharat’s 5,000 plus year old history and culture was showcased. It was replete with magnificent statues of a number of Hindu Gods. Prime Minister Modi received the honoured guests in front of a replica of the Konarak Wheel from the Sun Temple in Odisha. A massive 27 feet high dancing Nataraja made of Ashtadhatu, fronts the G20 venue dubbed a  Bharat Mandapam.

There is considerable consensus on matters like Climate Change, alternate energy development, and opportunities for the Global South. But the Ukraine War has the US and the G7 countries in a mood to insert a critical reference against Russia in the Declaration expected at the end of the Summit tomorrow the 10^th of September 2023. Russia says a political reference has no place in a G21 economic summit.

Russia, of course, sees the Ukraine War very differently. China and India are not willing to condemn Russia unilaterally for their own reasons. India has called for dialogue to resolve the conflict and has long been saying for long that this is not a time for War. At this summit, Prime Minister Modi referred to a ‘trust deficit’ without once mentioning Ukraine, implying a solution can be found through dialogue.

The paragraph on Ukraine has been left blank by the Sherpas working on the draft declaration. This even as nuanced drafting aimed at a consensus is continuing. Will this scuttle a joint declaration at the end of the summit?

India has had both the USSR and its successor Russia as a steadfast ally and friend for decades, and some 50% of its military equipment is of Russian/Soviet origin. This has been complemented with sourcing from the US, France, Israel in recent years, and more and more emphasis on aatmanirbhar or joint venture manufacturing in Bharat.

If there is an element of peevishness and desire to steal India’s thunder that has caused Chinese President Xi Jinping to stay away from this summit, and the one in Jakarta, it is probably working against China.

Without Xi Jinping adding his sour glowering presence, displayed recently at Johannesburg for the BRICS Summit, there is no great loss. At Johannesburg, the addition of nine new members through consensus amongst the five existing members, by 1^st January 2024 did nor quite go per the Chinese plan. It robbed China of its desire to dominate the forum with just two or three additions of its own choice.

Chinese government mouthpieces such as The Global Times seem to be portraying the Chinese mood today, with its sniping against the New Delhi summit from Beijing.

The question in many minds is just how much trouble is Xi Jinping in, given his poor handling of the Chinese economy and his diplomatic wolf warrior tactics that has almost every country exasperated. He has been called out by his mentor amongst others, and under pressure, has attempted to deny responsibility for the current state of affairs.

The G21 has also announced a railway-based land/port connectivity project involving Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US and Bharat. This new initiative is also likely to check growing Chinese influence in West Asia.

Brazil will take over the leadership of the G21 after the 10^th of September for the next year.

Prime Minister Modi is working through as many as 15 bilateral meetings and some pull-asides during these three days, ever since the leaders started to arrive on 8^th September. The bilateral with the US reportedly will advance defence cooperation and joint venturing beyond the GE 414 fighter engine deal with 80% technology transfer, and those for the Predator drones.

The one with Bangladesh illustrates the most successful relationship with a neighbouring country. Various others will each advance Bharat’s strategic partnership with its counterparts.

Initiatives to corner economic fugitives, confiscate their properties and freeze their bank accounts are likely to be internationally agreed. Bharat’s digital payment systems may be adopted by as many as a dozen countries.

Amongst all this, the retreat of China from the reformist gathering, despite the presence of Premier Li, may well be marking a watershed moment.

(1,332 words)

September 9^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee