Minimum Support Prices Have Outlived Their Utility

Even as the government has called for a fifth round of talks, and the farmer protestors are bent on resuming their push to Delhi, the Minimum Support Price (MSP), remains the central issue.

 MSP was introduced at the time of the Green Revolution in the 1960s. It was in order to spur on the efforts of farmers in Punjab, parts of Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh, specifically chosen for the purpose, because their lands were already well irrigated.

India’s food situation was in dire straits at the time, and the country was dependent on America providing wheat, rice, milk powder and the like under their PL-480 food aid programme. Since then, India has come a long way, despite a quadrupling of its population from 1947. It is not only food surplus now but is the world’s biggest exporter of rice among other things.

Over the years, it is farmers from these three states, some 6% of the total, numerically, ruled by a miniscule rich farmer nexus, that have been the principal beneficiaries of MSP.

It is this collection of farmers, that is now demanding even more benefits beyond the existing MSP, free water, electricity, nil taxation, regular increases in MSP rates, and other subsidies and grants from the government.

Of course, the world over, farming is a highly subsidised business, but in the developed countries there has been massive collectivisation of land holdings, mechanisation, modern scientific methods to produce high yields, and some 1-4% of their much smaller populations produce all the food for consumption and export.

In India, by way of depressing contrast, over 50% of the population, some 70 crore people, are engaged in agriculture, and still only contribute some 12-14% to the GDP. It is a highly inefficient sector even 75 years after independence. It is also very difficult politically to reform agriculture and push a majority of the rural population into urban areas for other, more gainful occupations.

The bulk of the crop purchased by the government under MSP still constitute wheat and paddy from semi-arid Punjab and environs. It still uses scarce canal and ground water as it did in the 1960s. Even though there are much better rain-fed areas that grow a surplus of both wheat and paddy today but the Punjab farmers want to corner most of the MSP.

This procurement is, in turn, used to service the public distribution system (PDS) for rations to poorer consumers at subsidised prices, as well as free rations to millions of the poorest.

The rest of these ‘cereal’ crops, if any is left over year to year, after the spoilage from exposure to the elements and rodents,(because of inadequate government storage facilities), is sold in the open market. It is sometimes exported too, particularly rice and wheat. Some of it is retained, as buffer food stocks. Other items like onions, produced mainly in Maharashtra, are also exported. Fruit exports include mangoes. Indian goats are much in demand in West Asia.

The debate on MSP has hotted up once again with a plethora of opinions being offered by a wide selection of people. The ongoing farmer agitation, led by those from Punjab, is picking up where the last episode left off two years ago. In the last encounter, the agitators, led by vested interests determined to maintain the status quo, refused to allow three farm laws from being implemented. These were designed to reform the sector to benefit the vast majority of agriculturists and increase farm income across the board. Emboldened by that success, the same elements are back with a long list of audacious demands.

These include pensions for some 50% of the Indian population engaged in this low output agriculture from the age of 60 and beyond. They are also asking for comprehensive farmer debt waivers. There is also a bizarre demand that India must walk out of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

The MSP being asked for now must come with a legal guarantee. It is also a much more expensive MSP. The new demand is for implementation of an unrealistic pricing formula, based on suggestions made by the late Dr. MS Swaminathan, the father of the Indian Green Revolution. If implemented, the new MSP would shoot up the retail food prices by an estimated 30%. However, the government is keen to negotiate a veering away from the cultivation of wheat and paddy in Punjab.

The government is in no position to agree to raised MSP for wheat and paddy from Punjab with guaranteed offtake of all that the state can produce. If they do anything like that most other development initiatives will suffer great harm, inflation would run amuck, the fiscal deficit would soar.

It can however buy other crops at MSP in order to encourage a badly needed diversification. It will take time to ramp up in volume terms and may actually strengthen the economy.

Wheat and paddy at high MSP on the other hand, would land India into an internal debt trap worse than what the Chinese have imposed on various countries.

Since MSP has been retained as a political hot potato ever since it was introduced, it is time for it to do some good in terms of present day requirements.

Early efforts of the government to try and bring about a shift in MSP covered crops from just paddy and wheat towards pulses, maize and cotton have been swiftly rejected by the farmer unions, overwhelmingly from Punjab. But the government wants to enter into a fresh round of talks to nudge this objective forward.

The farm unions from Punjab bent on their wheat and paddy seem unconcerned about the imminent desertification of their state with the water table having gone down by over 25 meters already.

The Trojan Horse of 22 or 23 crop items on the protestor list does not reveal that nearly 70% of the MSP is expended on the procurement of just paddy and wheat from the original Green Revolution belt plus Madhya Pradesh now. This needs to change in favour of some of the other 21 crops on the list and procurement from several other states in addition.

Unfortunately, the government’s procurement system has failed to energise the cultivation of pulses so far. These are imported to make up for the shortfall in these staples, in three types of commonly consumed dal.  The Indian government also imports copious quantities of palm oil for example, and could save a lot of foreign exchange if it could catalyse higher Indian production.

A number of hypothetical calculations on the impact of the various demands are doing the rounds. The MSP as it exists have given rise to several market price distortions.

In some cases, and some crops, the market prices have been higher, implying that the small farmer, for example, may prefer to sell outside of the government procurement system. Likewise, some of the rich agitators too, if they agree to grow anything beyond wheat and paddy. In other instances, MSP is higher than prevailing market prices, involving a government procurement outgo if all the output is to be mopped up. But naturally, prices cannot be static, both domestically and internationally from season to season, year to year.

In the end, and under the circumstances, with the MSP historical precedents in situ, the government is on the right track to use this agitation as an opportunity to  try and incentivise reform. The agitators in turn must realise that their room to force their point of view on the government is actually quite limited.

(1,255 words)

February 21^st, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 A Witch’s Brew:  I.N.D.I. Opposition, Congress, AAP, SP, Canada-backed Khalistanis, Pakistani ISI, Islamic Jihadis, Chinese & Soros Money, Maoists, NE Separatists, Leftist International Media, All Fuel Punjab Farmer Bosses in Farmer Agitation 2.0

The I.N.D.I opposition is in tatters with entire parties and prominent individual leaders deserting it frequently. Rahul Gandhi’s East-West Bharat Nyaya Yatra  is a damp squib. Other efforts from the DMK in Chennai and the Congress in Karnataka, both seeking to promote poisonous and divisive agendas, have also failed to gain any traction.

Meanwhile, the ruling combine has been notching up one success over another, and is poised to win the 2024 elections with a larger majority than in 2019.

 But here comes a significant and emotive disruptor. In utter violation of democratic norms of measured negotiation, Supreme Court directives against demonstrators blocking highways, imposition of Section 144, the Punjab Farmer bosses are about to lay siege to Delhi once again.

This is flying in the face of three union ministers, Piyush Goyal, Arjun Munda and Nityanand Rai, camped in Chandigarh, engaged in negotiations with the farmer unions. They have already agreed to the MSP demands but have not got around to the rest. The agitators seem keen on a confrontation rather than negotiated settlements.

Predictably, so far, all attempts have failed to avert the march on Delhi, further Bharat Bandhs and threats of violence. Meanwhile, hordes of turbanned Sikhs have arrived at the barricaded Shambhu border already, and the police are busy dispersing them with tear gas.

Ostensibly, this time, the government is determined to end this agitation at the earliest. It has readied a stadium to act as a temporary detention centre for any protestors that do get in to Delhi.

The agitation named ‘Delhi Chalo’ is a march composed of people of dubious provenance that claim to represent India’s farmers. They  are apparently Punjabi Sikhs in turbans laying a bogus claim to representing all.

Some, from the Samyukta Kisan Morcha, held a televised press conference on the 13^th of February, and exhorted other farmer and other groups/ unions affiliated with the BJP to join their agitation. This clearly indicates they are supported by anti-government forces.

They are converging on Delhi with over 1,000 tractors and trolleys, some reports say 2,500, with enough provisions and rations to settle in for six months. The financing for such substantial mobilisation and elaborate bandobast, has come in, most like from the anti-Modi government forces, both in the country, and from abroad. It is absolutely déjà vu.  

Will the central government end up conceding the points raised by the protestors once again? Yes, if the infamous roll back of the Farm Laws is anything to go by.

That controversial, politically calculated capitulation of two years ago, may have emboldened this mobilisation in February 2024. The timing is shortly before the Model Code of Conduct imposed by the Election Commission (EC), goes into force. This could happen by March. After that no major initiatives will be permitted.  But still, these agitators plan to dig in for six months.

The Delhi Police has sealed all the main routes into Delhi with barricades and other elaborate fortifications. But this will disrupt other legitimate traffic, trade and supplies causing heavy losses, like the last time. Some protestors can get in by the lesser routes too.

The assembling of apparently over a 100 farmer unions, some reports speak of 200 unions, from Punjab, supported, allegedly by an equal number of labour unions, have suddenly sprung up.  Each of these unions however must necessarily be quite small. This prompted the government ministers to question their representativeness, before going on to discuss their demands.

This is not an all India stir by any means, and is principally centred  in Punjab. There are no people purporting to be farmers from other states at all, except some opposition led elements from Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh who may turn up like last time, as this goes on. This is trying to grow into a replica agitation of the one to protest the three Farm Laws two years ago. The laws were rolled back by the central government under immense pressure.  

Ostensibly, this agitation is to demand guaranteed Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for a large number of crops, farmer and farm labour pensions, debt waivers, compensation for those killed in the clashes of the last farmer agitation at Lakhimpur Kheri, possibly a ban on privatisation of farming if it is being contemplated, other lesser demands. The fiscal impact of conceding all these demands could be considerable and impact the GDP growth projections.

The entire crowd so far seems to consist of Punjabi Sikhs. Punjab is ruled by the opposition Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is supporting the agitation. Is this then merely a political stir encouraged by the AAP?

The AAP is embroiled in a liquor Scam and multiple other corruption? Several of their ministers are in jail including the Delhi deputy chief minister. Chief Minister Kejriwal has been dodging summonses from the Enforcement Directorate (ED).

The Congress Party, in competition with the AAP in Punjab for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, is also offering a degree of support to the Delhi Chalo agitation, motivated perhaps by the pressure that is being applied on the central government.  

The BJP, and even the Akali Dal that may be thinking on rejoining the NDA, have little electoral possibilities in Punjab.

In Haryana and Uttar Pradesh however, BJP is in a strong position. So, the central government has no great reason to cave in to these gun-to-the-head tactics. Of course, the public relations fallout of a renewed and prolonged farmer agitation is a relevant political factor.

Given the prominence of the Punjab Sikhs in this stir, most probably financed and supported by a bouquet of anti-NDA forces, the question arises, are they the only farmers in India? Why are they routinely pampered ever since the Green Revolution engineered by MS Swaminathan, even though many other states have become major agricultural contributors since.

The anti-India forces that could be behind this stir include Canada based Khalistanis, drug dealers and underworld forces from Punjab and Canada, the Pakistani ISI and their Islamic jihadist assets in the country, Chinese moles in-country, Maoists, some North East separatists, Chinese money and arms, the Congress Party, The Samajwadi Party, George Soros and his money, Kashmiri separatists abroad, the foreign leftist media such as  The Washington Post, New York Times,  The Guardian, Economist, the BBC, Time, Newsweek, Al Jazira, some academics in America, parts of the OIC and Turkey.

As one can see, the list is quite long, and not necessarily exhaustive. Many of these people think the prospect of a third consecutive term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Hindu nationalist NDA is a threat to their world view, particularly with India’s current buoyant economic prospects. Strategically, a weaker central government in India would make it more biddable for the Western forces and China alike. These apparently agricultural agitators at Delhi’s borders, are regarded as convenient cat’s paws by such forces.

(1,110 words)

February 13^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Interim Budget 2024 Stresses Growth, Reduction of Fiscal Deficit & Inflation

No, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman did not runaway with the ball. This, for an interim budget and vote-on-account with its constraints and conventions.

Sounding, for all the world, like she was presenting the Economic Survey, not done this year because of the impending general elections, she slipped in as much self-advertisement for the government as she could, that would not attract special notice or criticism. Everybody kept their remarks short, from Sitharaman to the prime minister. Many other government big wigs didn’t speak on the interim budget at all, leaving it to the denizens enjoying the CII lounge.

Still, like a good shepherd, the government, acutely aware it has the fastest growing economy in the world now, intends to keep it safe, with all its gains intact. It also aims to keep all its emphases and thrust areas on course and has upped the ante slightly in all of them.  

There is an effort to broad-base the growth drivers to various other parts of the economy such as dairy farmers, fisheries, housing, 600 crores more for the hydrogen mission, 8,500 crores more to Solar, more aviation and aeroplane orders, more airports. This, in addition to the infrastructure main thrust areas of connectivity, roads, railways, bridges, metros, ports. Include therefore the people-friendly many yojanas, with several mentions of Nari Shakti with attendant incentivisation.

The BJP must be surveying the reception to such yojanas for efficacy -but for the media-reading public, much of it appears like a propagandist jamboree that somehow delivers more BJP votes. Playing it close to the chest is practically DNA to the top brass.

There is now a general call for greater private sector participation in various areas to introduce competitiveness, efficiency, design, style. But, apart from Adani, Ambani and Tata, we cannot be sure whether they will attend. Congress will carp on crony capitalism, but why don’t they get one of their own to come forward.  DLF, anyone?

The habit in the private sector, is to ask for interest reduction and other concessions, never mind what it does to the budget deficit. They could miss the bus of course, with the sarkar continuously doing all the heavy-lifting.

But, as Nadir Godrej said, the private sector will first build additional capacity, if required, in whatever they are involved in.  Unsaid is the fact that the last time the private sector went into infrastructure, the projects were stuck for funding, as were their bills. But this was when their favourite ideological UPA government was in-charge, corrupt but ruling, and  well before Modi Raj began in 2014.

Development of Lakshadweep has found mention here for both tourism and strategic reasons, this prominently, for the first time.

Manufacturing, slated to grow into another 5% of GDP, will get a basic, enabling thrust, with a large, Rs. 1 lakh crores for research and development (R&D), for the first time. Repayable in 50 years, making it practically a grant.

With automobiles accounting for about 50% of manufacturing in India, this R&D funding could come in handy for the development of components and other items in the value chain both for industry consumption and export. Companies like Volvo, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, Toyota, Suzuki, Hyundai, which are ensconced in automobile manufacturing and assembly in India, need to be further encouraged to become global hubs operating out of India. Will the government take Arvind Panagariya’s advice in July, and lower tariffs at least in line with the ASEAN countries?

The overall logistic costs are to be brought down from 14% to about 8% with the ongoing efforts of this government on road, rail, air, port infrastructure. This is commendable, dramatic, because it is now credible, and will have profound consequences on the confidence generated amongst foreign investors in India-based manufacture and export.

The stress on government capex continues, will another Rs. 11.1 lakh crores allocated.This was the biggest announcement, and is indeed less than the 13 lakh crores it would have been, if the momentum of the present fiscal was to be maintained into 2024-25. However, the sector accounts for almost 4% of GDP now, and is the main growth driver.  

The government is cutting its market borrowing programme in fiscal 2024-25 to reduce its debts, as the private sector investment increases, compared to before. This indicates greater confidence in the economy. Some of the government’s friends, big boys all, are not afraid.

Meanwhile the government’s fiscal deficit, at 5.9%, is to be reduced to 5.1% in 2024-25, en route to meeting the target of 4.5% in  FY 2025-26. Will this mount 5.1% lead to interest rate cuts? RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, most likely, will not react to intentions, and wait for the attainment of 5.1% first.

All changes in direct and indirect taxes remain untouched for now, but the implication is that there may be some benefits announced in the full budget of July 2024.

Prominent mention of rooftop solar for one crore households to generate 300 units of free electricity, with connectivity to sell overages, has enthused the energy stocks such as IREDA, Websol Energy, Suzlon Energy and Sterling and Wilson. However, this initiative may do better in the countryside and new construction in smaller towns and cities. The technology associated with solar panels also needs to evolve.

Likewise Electric vehicle (EV) stocks rallied on the reiteration of adoption of EV in public transport. India is also working hard on green hydrogen technologies as an alternative to EVs.

Interestingly, divestment targets, after the success of returning Air India to the Tatas, have actually been reduced. There are more important things for the government to concentrate on, with a dramatic turnaround in many PSU stocks connected with aatmanirbhar initiatives and defence manufacturing.

The middle class will be helped to build their own houses or purchase their dwellings. But there is no indication that the government intends to ramp up the real estate sector in general, despite its potential of becoming a massive employer of skilled and unskilled jobs, if it goes up from the $ 120 billion at present to $ 1 trillion by 2030. Millions of people, men and women, from the rural surplus could be absorbed, apart from those who go into management, sales and so on. It would need incentives, loans, industry status.

Small disputed income tax demands, some going back to 1962, and subject of much contention, have been withdrawn for up to Rs. 25,000  till FY 2009-10 and Rs. 10,000 up to FY 2014-15. This is a welcome thing, but a curious and somewhat trivial item to introduce here.

Defence stocks, Railway stocks, declined somewhat, probably not excited by the steadiness of gait. Where are the huge bump-ups in expenditure? However, the announcements showed that investments are slightly enhanced and are continuing. Railways will get more trains. Defence manufacturing gets more money, the budget upped by 4.4 %.

Unexpected money is going into Solar, EV, Nari Shakti, middle class housing, and all this has been well received.  The large-scale induction of the female population into the work force could add 1 to 1.5% to the GDP. Can this be achieved in the period 2024-2029?

 

(1,184 words)

February 1^st, 2024

For; Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

Interim Budget 2024 Can Afford To Be Bold

It is capital expenditure from the government (capex), that has fuelled the stellar growth over the last ten years. This, despite Covid, that marred the benefits of a cut in corporate taxes briefly, and the wobble making pressures of inimical global winds. But now, the possibility of further reduced taxes for new manufacturing entities of about 15% in interim budget 2024 is likely to give a boost to those relocating in whole or in part from China, plus others. There are also the generous

PLI schemes that are attracting high investment manufacturing such as semiconductor micro and computer chips. Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnav says the first semiconductor microchips, made in India at Gujarat by US major Micron, at an investment of $ 825 million, will roll out in December 2024.

The defence sector aatmanirbhar programme is going from strength to strength, fuelling the rapid rise of various PSU and private sector stocks associated with it. The US, France and Israel have become major collaborators, even as good relations and connections continue with Russia. Israel has put in the anti-drone system to protect the grand temple at Ayodhya for example.

The success of the Indo-Russian Brahmos missiles in all their variety for land, sea, undersea and air use have put India’s defence/offence preparedness on a solid footing and have earned the admiration and commercial interest of a host of countries.

The Indian stock market itself has reached 4^th place globally, having overtaken Hong Kong.  

Social welfare for the poor and marginalised, incentives for the informal and MSME sector, are de rigeur in an election year budget, and they will definitely feature prominently.

It is the prospect of a further 20 percent enhancement in capex in 2024, up from 35% this fiscal, on the productive side, that will lubricate Modi’s  consecutive term-two to segue seamlessly into an almost surefire growth inducing term-three.

Prospects of 7 per cent GDP growth are being asserted now, up from anywhere between 6.3 to 6.5 per cent earlier, citing global headwinds, not only for 2024-25 but onwards, for the seven years to 2030.

India is widely expected to have a GDP of $ 7 trillion by 2030, according to its own government report just released, with $ 5 trillion coming on by 2027.

The RBI is wary of inflation, which has cooled, but is still, at 5.9%, well away from the target of 4.5%, and this will prevent interest rate cuts for some period.

There are strong possibilities of manufacturing and exports both growing by 5 percentage points by 2030 according to a recent Goldman Sachs report. This would mean a doubling for both volume and quantum figures of exports and manufacturing from those of 2021. And, of course, an enhanced share of the GDP for both. This will offer significant job opportunities to trained manpower as the China plus one story propels these sectors forward.

Automobile and Smartphone manufacturing are  great Indian successes already with excellent growth prospects. Samsung not only proposes to catch up with Apple sales in India and export, but will also start making laptops in Noida shortly.  The electronics industry has grown to Rs. 830,000 crores and exports have crossed 200,000 crores.

Many are anticipating a strong fillip given to affordable housing, including easier financing, and enhanced tax incentives on home loan interest and release of government owned land for the purpose.

This is understandable in an election year, but the potential exists to do much more than help the relatively poor own their own pucca homes with amenities and facilities at hand.

The residential and commercial real estate sector as a whole, presently at $ 120 billion according to Statista, aims to be at $ 1 trillion by 2030, and account for 13 per cent of the enhanced GDP. This is one sector that has been absorbing the migrants from rural India for decades and provides employment to millions of unskilled and skilled people of both sexes. While our  real-time statistical collection is much behind our adoption of digital means in other areas, it would be useful to know how many people work in construction when it is booming.

Pushed hard, as is being projected by the real estate sector, perhaps inclusive of industry status, financing, tax incentives, and its attendant benefits, this  segment of the economy, can certainly be a major employer, moderniser and growth driver towards overall development.

Of course, infrastructure, the other adjunct to huge economic generation, now has come to mean super roads and highways with hotels, motels, other supportive infrastructure, railways, including multiple freight corridors, rolling stock, track, wheel and digital signalling equipment manufacture, tunnels, bridges, high-speed trains, bullet trains, rapid transport linkages, complete train-set manufacture, electrification, expansion into areas and territories not previously served, a great expansion of the metro system in multiple cities, ports including transshipment ports, airports, revamping of airports and railway stations. All this has been steadily increasing avenues of employment, and will continue to do so in tandem with GDP growth. The NHAI is now constantly recruiting people.

The real estate and infrastructure sector is also a great buyer of mechanisation, heavy equipment, earth movers, bull dozers, graders, consumables and the like.

The more efficient taxation system under GST and direct taxes is increasingly providing investible development and sustenance funds for the centre and the states. Most of the leakages have been plugged.    

Former RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao has cited ‘jobs and inequality’ as the Modi government’s biggest failures. Youth unemployment he writes is as high as 40%. If only all those gone into services, growing tourism, part-time employment, the great unknown of the informal sector, were statistically captured, this kind of alarmism would not exist.

In line with the accusations of the Left-Liberal analysts, Subbarao cites ‘jobless growth’, a basic oxymoron, because growth needs legs to stand on. But even if this slur goes unchallenged for the sake of argument, Subbarao goes on to expand by  criticising the ‘quality of growth’ as opposed to ‘quantum of growth’.  I can’t think of one thing Subbarao suggested while in the saddle that threw light on this distinction. Let alone now.

While one can argue with this overall perspective, as the shibboleths associated with a socialist mindset, that is probably hinting at the creation of millions of government jobs, however inefficient that has proved to be in the past. This may be thought of as a popular panacea, but is akin to having five people change a light bulb, never mind the waste of talent. Another of his criticisms is however undeniable.

Subbarao says female labour force participation (GLPR), ‘presents a distressing picture’. He is right, but is it only the government’s fault that only 28% of women participate in the workforce, and this soon reduces to 8% as many drop-out? The potential for harnessing the female work force better, as in China, could add another 1 to 1.5 % to the GDP.

Is this therefore also a societal and patriarchal problem that will need time, even as women today are prominent, albeit in small numbers, in almost every field of endeavour, both high and low.

Arvind Panagariya, Professor at Columbia University and also currently India’s Chairperson of the Finance Commission, is, in a way at the other end of the  economic thought spectrum from Subbarao.

He has consistently advocated a lowering or elimination of tariff barriers right from his time as the Vice Chairman of Niti Udyog and even before. He argues  that the Indian automobile industry has only grown behind a government imposed tariff wall, and could do much better for itself and the customer if this were to be removed, or reduced to the level of the ASEAN countries.

He disagrees with the increasing protectionism since 2014, and says no country can grow at 8 to 10 per cent without free trade.  But then, does the US, the EU, the UK or China practice free trade? They certainly do not. In some ways laissez faire free trade is an imperialist notion that suits only the imperial power.

Panagariya is perhaps being a little theoretical, though the thrust of his argument is well meant. It is to be expected from an academic. Would this sort of policy enhance job creation at the same time or lead to Indian business and industry as well as its agriculture sector being overwhelmed by dumping and other aggressive trade practices?

Maserati sold 103 of its super cars in India at a price of over Rs. 4 crores each in 2023 India, despite very high import taxes. It too asks for lower duties and better infrastructure to sell even more. There is, it appears, no shortage of money at the top in India, as in the developed countries.

In a country with such a large population however, where a good quarter of the people to forty percent are undeniably poor, targeted welfarism without leaks is mandatory. This includes development of facilities such as rural roads, provision of gas, electricity and water connections, free rations when unemployment strikes, healthcare, education, digital connectivity, and also a measure of subsidy and pure give-aways.

The Modi government has been mindful however to push growth at the same time, and address, at least partially, the needs of the other sixty per cent of the population, including the movers and shakers at the top. This, no doubt, as the crucial balancing act, of neither being abject socialists, nor heartless capitalists, will continue in the interim budget 2024.

(1,575 words)

January 30^th, 2024

For; Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

The Establishment Of A New India Over A Transformational Decade Starting 2014

Significant beginnings often go unnoticed. Sometimes they are celebrated with little appreciation of their longer-term significance. The unanticipated surprise that is part of their DNA, is buried deep and may not be apparent at first. Later, when the changes it brings about burst all around us, we cannot take credit for any prescience.

However, more and more over the last decade, we have grown aware of the unusual and extraordinary vision of Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the board.

After expecting nothing but unfulfilled promises and general sluggishness from Indian government initiatives, with the unspoken question: why couldn’t India, with all its innate advantages, perform as well as most of the ASEAN countries? Why was it seemingly at least 50 years behind them? Despite the ruling Congress and UPA making a virtue of Nehru’s Soviet-style ‘commanding heights of the economy’ policy for the public sector, why did we appear so third-world backward even in 1990?

But for once this was not the case when the new broom arrived to sweep clean in 2014. The Modi government has been transformative, changing our logistical constraints with new, comprehensive, improved infrastructure. It has changed our attitudes. We feel a new confidence owing to the conduct of our foreign affairs. We have at last got rid of the post-colonial hangover. We no longer, barring a few old fogeys from the ancien regime, hanker after Western approval in all that we say and do.

This administration is turning improbable economic dreams into reality at great speed, as if it were on a daily basis.

It refuses to conform to divisive binaries of religion and caste, despite constant vilification and carping from the opposition and the leftist sections of the foreign media, to the absolute contrary.

This government has been labelled majoritarian, anti-secular etc from day one. It prospers despite all this, much to the frustration of its detractors and even elicits a degree of jealousy from the developed West. 

It reaches its target audience in vastly increased welfare projects without leakages owing to corruption. The rural poor have been provided with gas, electricity, water, roads, healthcare, education, digital connectivity, reached practically to their doorstep. And this on a non-discriminatory and universal basis. Housing has been built for those in need of it, with loans given for their purchase. Millions of toilets have been built to get rid of the indignity and dangers of open defecation.

We are learning, as a country, to avoid the old traps of divide and rule, discarding old laws from British times, and the manners and mores of the erstwhile administration, that helped only those who were on their side. The Sarkar was still a mai baap designed to enslave, till Modi came along to democratise it to an extent.

The young people of today, 65% of the gargantuan population of over 1.4 billion, identify with this New India, taking all the evident progress in their stride. Even the beginning of liberalisation of the economy in 1991, over thirty years ago, is remote to them, as if belonging to a different country.

We are changing academic curricula to reflect correct historical perspectives. We are introducing a living Sanskrit, the study of the Ramayana and the Mahabharata, India’s two great epics. We are now well aware that history did not begin with the Mughals and the only symbol of beauty in India is not the Taj Mahal.

Great stories at one level, our epics, are the basis, along with the Vedas, Puranas, the Upanishads, of the nuances of Sanatana Dharma. They are not myth as we used to be told. They are Bharat’s living history and wisdom of 10,000 years. Secularism is no longer equal to a suppression of the Hindus and their cultural moorings.

History being taught in schools and colleges now comes with the help of new books shorn of deliberate Marxist distortions introduced all over academia and publishing in the Nehru era. 

It is a New India completely different from Nehruvian shibboleths that have kept us trapped in an imported time warp of ideas for five to six decades. A New India that promises to deliver a developed country in every practical way by the time the Indian republic turns hundred, in 2047. A country that will have a GDP of more than $ 30 trillion, up from the $ 4 trillion at present. Who could have ever imagined this was going to happen in such a short time? What are the dangers though? External shocks of sufficient magnitude could be the Black Swan. Internally, losing control of government debt and inflation.

But even this $ 4 trillion in present GDP represents our march from the 10^th largest economy to the 5^th largest, over just the last decade. Our stock market too is at no.4 in the world now, having overtaken Hong Kong. And the near prospect is of it becoming the No.3 economy by 2027, with a GDP at $ 10 trillion.

It is nevertheless difficult to see the significance of a new beginning at first.

The Ram Rath Yatra of September-October 1990, was undertaken by then president of the BJP, Lal Krishan Advani, one of just two BJP members of parliament as of 1984. It was this Ram Rath Yatra that revitalised the BJP, catalysing a widespread Hindu revival amongst the populace as well.

Its journey from Somnath in Gujarat was intended to culminate in Ayodhya, but Advani was arrested as he crossed into Bihar. Some 150,000 Kar Sevaks travelling alongside, were also arrested in Uttar Pradesh.

The other BJP MP of that time was Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who six years later, became its first prime minister, at the head of an unwieldy coalition. Vajpayee, nevertheless adroitly managed this coalition, and completed a five year-term after a thirteen-day first innings, plus another year in power. He was not in a position to push many of the items on the BJP manifesto, but achieved the courageous overt nuclear weaponisation of India. He also gave a big boost to the infrastructure development the BJP is still renowned for. He completed, during his time as prime minister, a good part of the Golden Quadrilateral system of modern highways connecting the metro cities.

This initial work is still being carried forward with much greater connectivity by the Modi administration today.

It took another ten years for a majority government of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to arrive. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with a majority tally of its own, came to power under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014.

The substantial electoral mandate enabled the Modi administration to set about the comprehensive transformation of India in thought, word and deed. This meant its infrastructure, the way it saw itself, the way the world saw India, its economy, science, technology, digital adoption, space technology, defence manufacturing and aatmanirbhar manufacturing.

Another majority government back-to-back, with a similar electoral tally in 2019, provided continuity and momentum. There is now a strong possibility of a similar third consecutive term in 2024.

This third term is slated to take India to the third position amongst world economies, a doubled per capita income once again, and GDP of $ 10 trillion.

The Ram Rath Yatra of 1990 started it all for the BJP, bringing it out of its marginalisation.  Despite intense vilification from the then ruling coalition, it received massive public support, perhaps pent up for decades. This, even as Advani addressed at least six public gatherings every day. The Yatra was undertaken by BJP and the RSS to support the Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) and allied organisations in the Sangh Parivar, who had been agitating for a Ram Temple at his birth spot in Ayodhya from the 1980s.

 This Hindu demand had been simmering ever since 1528 when the original temple to Lord Ram was demolished by the Mir Baqi, a general working for Babur, and the Babri Masjid built in its place.

Alongside Advani, throughout the duration of the Rath Yatra was a little-known RSS Pracharak called Narendra Damodardas Modi. 

This was some years before Narendra Modi emerged into widespread public  view in 2000, with multiple terms as chief minister of Gujarat.

This very Ram Rath Yatra was followed by the fairly quick demolition of the Babri Masjid by Kar Sevaks on 6^th December 1992. Decades later still, it led to the establishment of a grand new Ram Temple at Ayodhya in 2023-2024.In fact, the entire ancient city of Ayodhya has begun to be transformed alongside, with many more developments in the works.

International stock broker Jefferies expects five crore people to visit Ayodhya every year, and completely transform the economy of the region if not the whole state of Uttar Pradesh. Something like this sort of influx is also happening at the world’s oldest city, Varanasi, after similar upgrading of connectivity, infrastructure, and betterment of the environs of the Kashi Vishwanath temple.

In many ways, the saga of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya has been crucial to the rise of a new political and cultural narrative. It has also been instrumental in shaking off the socialist shackles of Nehruvian India.

And yet, in 1991, forced by bankruptcy due to its low-income-high-expenditure policies, it was the Congress under Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao that ushered in political and economic reform.

This unleashed high growth in most of the years since. While per capita income has also doubled, it is hamstrung by India’s massive population, the biggest in the world. However, millions of people have been lifted out of absolute poverty.

The country has been food surplus for this entire decade from 2014, with rare shortages of particular eatables requiring imports from time to time.

Despite the Covid pandemic that ravaged the world for two years, India held out better than most both in terms of food and self-preservation. It developed millions of units of two types of vaccines. The Modi administration not only inoculated over a billion Indians, mostly free -of -charge, but exported and donated scarce vaccines to many countries abroad. In addition, due to its production of many medicines at reasonable cost it is called the pharmacy to the world.

Nandan Nilekani of Infosys fame, as one of the founders of the storied IT company Infosys, largely authored the Aadhar project(UIDAI), that today counts 1.3 billion Indians with this digital and physical ID based on biometrics. This led to the development of digital public infrastructure for delivery of multiple services. Nilekani says this has been accomplished in just nine years, something that would have taken half a century otherwise.

Goldman Sachs, the US brokerage and financial services giant, put out a report on the 10 Modi administration years.  It not only called the changes over the past decade transformative, but made some predictions about the coming years. Manufacturing, says Goldman Sachs, will lead GDP growth in India for seven years going forward, leading to a steep rise in goods and services exports. Both will rise by at least 5 percentage points by 2031, nearly doubling both absolute numbers from the 2021 levels.

The Indian economy is transforming its infrastructure with great momentum. It has constructed 53 ,700 Km of national highways over the last decade, up from just about half as much at 25,700 km between 2005 and 2013, says Goldman Sachs.

 The Indian Railways, not mentioned specifically in the report, have been also overhauled, with thousands of kilometres of new track and doubling of existing track. Rail connectivity to the entire North East has been achieved for the first time. Electrification of the Indian Railways is heading towards 100%. The signalling systems have been automated and turned digital. There is digital mobile ticketing via an App. There is a huge quantity of domestically manufactured and also exported rolling stock. The semi-high speed Made in India Vande Bharat trains have been introduced. There are dedicated freight corridors, and the first of several bullet trains is nearing its launch date. More than 400 railway stations have been redesigned and revamped. There are many new railway bridges and tunnels, as there are road tunnels for all weather connectivity at high altitude. Bottom line, the Indian Railways that had gone all but bankrupt in 2013, now see much better financial results and a grand future for itself.

Similarly, the metro systems are being built or expanded in a score of cities and towns. The one in Bengaluru, recently expanded with North-South as well as East-West axes, is transport 800,000 people daily.

The first RRTS system using made in India high-speed Namo Bharat train sets is being commissioned between Delhi and Meerut with at least two more on the anvil.

Airports have likewise been upgraded and new ones built. Indian aviation sector has placed orders for almost a 1000 new aircraft with Boeing and Airbus.

There are new ports commissioned and being built and old ones modernised on both sea-boards in peninsular India. There are new transshipment ports under process both on the mainland and in the Andamans.

Massive infrastructure to connect and better religious sites and temples all over the country have led to a upsurge in pilgrimages and religious tourism. 

Lakshwadeep is being developed for domestic and foreign tourism, even as infrastructure at many locations on the mainland are being ramped up to welcome the well-heeled tourist.

A key item of transformation according to Goldman Sachs is India’s  aatmanirbhar  manufacturing programmes that makes it less dependent on external factors. And this is largely underpinned by domestic demand. 

This is perhaps illustrated most vividly in India’s Tejas, Tejas 1A, AMCA fighter  aircraft programmes, the second indigenous aircraft carrier being built and various other shipbuilding and ship repair activity, submarine manufacture and refurbishment, the manufacture of combat helicopters, new light tanks, armoured carriers, missiles of various kinds, bullet proof vests, combat rifles, drones, and ammunition and yet more. Some of this work is being done by the private sector now. The private sector also builds parts and components for aircraft for export. Adherence to its make in India policy is now crucial to the success of foreign bids to sell and supply defence and even other equipment.

Border infrastructure is being transformed along the LaC, the LoC, the international border with Pakistan, along the Bangladesh and Myanmar borders.

While exports of defence equipment have also begun to Armenia and the Philippines for example, the need of the hour is to build as much of India’s massive defence procurement with pronounced indigenous content. This saves the country billions of dollars, and is strategically sound. India is also storing fuel in special purpose caverns to the same end.

With the coming on stream of new oil and gas off the Arabian Sea coast, India will receive an additional boost to its indigenous production amounting to some 7% of its requirements.

India has developed huge refining capacity, and now not only refines all of its crude imports, but also reexports the refined fuel to a large number of other countries.

 India’s broadband communication consumption has risen exponentially to over 771 .3 million users over the last decade, up from just 58.9 million users in the eight years prior. That India is also one of the least expensive markets for mobile communications including data usage is due to the numbers that use it. It is also now rapidly rolling out 5G technology.

The Modi government’s push towards renewable energy is growing as its ability to manufacture solar panels expands to some 60% of current demand. Post the consecration at Ayodhya, the prime minister announced that he would like to see a crore of rural households using subsidised roof top solar panels. In new  affordable housing developments these can be planned in from the start.

Goldman Sachs points out the country has already installed a total of 95.7 GW of renewable energy capacity that includes solar and wind energy over the last decade, again up from just 25.5 GW between 2005 and 2014.

One of the virtuous cycles is that GST collections grow in tandem with the 6- 7%  GDP growth year-on-year. This helps to keep the deficit financing under control, even as the government plans[Gautam Mu1]  to increase its Capex spends by a further  20% in 2024.

India now leads the world in digital transactions with an exponential rise to 76.1 per cent in 2022-23 up from just 4.4 per cent in 2015-16.

The real estate sector too is now thriving with a record number of new launches across the country after a period of relative despondency.

India has also made a special effort to revamp the systems in the Sports Ministry, said the prime minister, while inaugurating the 6^th Khelo India Youth Games recently at Chennai. And certainly, the results[Gautam Mu2]  over the decade bear fulsome testimony to this fact. India has never before won so many medals in diverse fields.

There has been a nutritional drive both nationally and internationally with the promotion of ‘Millets’, most famously on the dinner menu of the heads of state banquet at the G20 Summit held in New Delhi. Millets may take a bit of getting used to, but are not only extremely nutritious, but also inexpensive.

India’s progress at ISRO and its space programmes has been spectacular as well. It has already sent an unmanned craft to the moon and to observe the Sun and Mars alongside dozens of satellites for the government, other entities, including foreign payloads.

Government PSUs concerned with insurance, infrastructure development, defence manufacturing, the railways, which were nearly dead in the water, are  turning out profits. They are soaring on the stock market and  have bulging order book positions.

The Modi government has been pushing for the safety of female childbirth and education for girls, and now its latest initiative at Davos 2024 was to foster global gender equity and equality.

The prime mover of progress, besides the Modi government’s efficiency, is definitely a stable political environment necessary for the growth of economic activity. This has largely been the contribution of the electoral mandate given by the people.

The more the economy grows, the greater can be its contribution to India’s development. Fortunately, the benefits of this growth have helped almost everyone in the country because of targeted government programmes for the masses. There is not, as the Communists would have it, huge disparity of basic livelihood, jobless growth, privation of the many. This, despite millions of people achieving prosperity at the top 10% of the pyramid. We are no longer distributing poverty as we did under socialism, with no money at 2% GDP or less, to pay for the welfare. 

While any listing of achievements of the 10 years of Modi government is unlikely to be exhaustive, what is astounding is the number of areas it has tackled, and all in mission mode. This is a prime minister that has never taken a day off from his work. The results of such exemplary zeal are therefore evident all around us.

 

(3,154 words)

January  23^rd,  2024

For: The Sunday Guardian Special

Gautam Mukherjee

---

 [Gautam Mu1]

 [Gautam Mu2]E 

 

Modi-Made New India Champions Global Gender Equality And Equity At Davos

As India’s economic performance grows, its soft power grows in proportion. Prime Minister Narendra Modi as the charismatic leader of this 75 year old republic and ancient civilisational culture, is thought to have answers to the dilemmas of the currently divided and troubled world. From a country that used to deliver unwanted lectures to the world, it is now much sought after.

Modi’s ‘one world family’ messaging during the recent G20 year hosted by India, ended by including the 55 nation African Union into its fold. India made the effort, achieved unanimity for the move, and successfully included the most exploited and savaged continent on earth onto the leading global platform where its ills can be addressed.

Domestically, the inclusive tone is set by ‘Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Prayas, Sabka Viswas’, despite the inevitable mockery and accusations of Hindu triumphalism. Together,[GM1]  these ideas resonate in an old-fashioned way in a world with two ongoing wars, one in Europe and the other in West Asia and the tendency to form opposing axes. A polarisation not seen since WWII is developing in a very worrisome way.  

Meanwhile, the fact that India has drawn closer to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel than ever before, in practical, material, ways, gives the lie to the criticism of Hindu communalism.

In addition, America has become a firm strategic partner with military and technological benefits for both. France is now a firm friend and defence manufacturing partner too, along with Russia. Other relationships have also undergone massive positive transformations, such as the one with Japan.  

Modi, a grey eminence with unbounded energy, in his 73^rd year now, is widely regarded as one of the most respected and influential voices in the pantheon of global leaders.  

That this global prominence has grown steadily over the last ten years is not surprising. Not only have the prime minister and external affairs minister been indefatigable in their diplomatic efforts, India has come from 10^th to 5^th position in its economy. This fact has given India great credibility.

With a gross domestic product growth of around 7 percent per annum going forward, India is expected to occupy the 3^rd position in the world by 2027. It will be behind only the US and China, with a GDP of $10 trillion, up from its current $ 4 trillion. It is the world’s most successful economy now.

By 2047, India’s 100^th year since independence, it is expected to have become a highly developed country. It will also have multiples of its present per capita income for its vast population, expected to touch 1.70 billion by then. It is expected to have an economy of over $ 30 trillion by then.

That India’s soft power is growing alongside all this is not surprising, nor is it unprecedented. Ancient India was fabled for its wealth, the greatest in the ancient world. That it set off a series of marauding conquests and occupations was the other side of the coin not likely to be repeated in the 21^st century.

Its cultural, civilisational and dharmic influence spread all over the Far East including China and Japan. This without benefit of any aggression, attempt at domination or conquest. West Asia was also heavily influenced by Indian learning and innovation. And not a few so called inventions and discoveries claimed by the West were shamelessly lifted from India without acknowledgement.

Davos, used to hosting world’s leaders, its finest minds and economic thinkers, for over half a century now, witnessed a major presence from India this year, building on the interest generated last year. This in the presence of leaders from 300 countries.

The rate of foreign direct investment into India has trebled, and is slated to grow exponentially into high technology areas such as chip-making, defence manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and other relocations of manufacturing from China.

For its latest soft power projection, India deployed the thoroughly confident and articulate Union Minister for Minority Affairs, Smriti Irani. She led the charge for global gender equality and equity. 

This is the first time a woman minister has been sent to represent India’s government, and over 1 .4 billion people at Davos. This gender initiative is supported by the Bill and Melinda Foundation, the Davos Summit founder, and over 10,000 global corporate houses.

The gender alliance is intended to bring together global good practices, knowledge sharing, and most importantly, investment in women’s health, education, and support for women-led enterprise.

Irani has also recently returned from a path-breaking trip to Mecca and Medina. She had gone there to improve the Indian and Saudi government supported facilities for Indian pilgrims on the Umra or Haj, required of devout Muslims at least once in their lifetime. She was received warmly by the Saudi clerics and authorities, despite being sent out to do what was seen as a ‘man’s job’.

But the whole question of gender equity and equality has had a chequered career in India so far. The government recognises the problems associated with it, and has attacked it at various levels including banning gender determination using sonograms at the pre-birth stage, and the crime of infant matricide/ patricide of female children. Later in the trajectory, people are exhorted to educate girl children. The process is working, as gender ratios and school statistics bear out, but there is a long way to go towards equal participation in the work force.

Meanwhile, India boasts of female fighter pilots trained to fly the supersonic Rafale, female commercial pilots, policewomen, soldiers, lawyers, doctors, teachers, judges in the higher judiciary.

And yet, only 27% odd of women have joined the work force so far, with many dropping out after a spell to take the remainder to depressing single digits. The old patriarchal attitudes persist, making it very hard for them and thereby wasting a massive human resource.

However, by using a global platform at Davos and the support the initiative has garnered, it is clear that this lack of gender equity and equality is a global phenomenon. Women are simply not considered for many jobs. Many avenues of learning are closed to them. They do not get equal pay or terms of contract. And this in advanced Western countries. The plight of women in Islamic countries is much worse, with Afghanistan under the Taliban or Iran under the Ayatollahs providing the most extreme cases.

The important thing is that India seeks to not only grow itself but change the inequities and maladjustments elsewhere. This gender initiative is another step in this direction. With a dozen Indian lounges at the 54^th Global Summit at Davos, it featured prominently at the five day jamboree. Many of the Indian states such as Maharashtra, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka competed for attention with Indian AI and technology giants such as Wipro, Infosys, TCS and HCL Tech.

There were three union ministers present, as many chief ministers, and a contingent of Indian CEOs.

India has moved on from showcasing its exotica as ‘Incredible India’, to projecting a lucrative and viable ‘Credible India’ – a preferable investment destination. That it also has a message or two for the world can only be seen as a bonus.

 

(1,194 words)

January 20^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

---

 [GM1]

 

Is Biden, Mired In Two Wars, Going To Be A One-Term President

Incumbent President Joe Biden,81, standing for re-election in 2024, knows, after more than fifty years in the Senate, and as President Obama’s two term Vice President, that incumbents generally win.

He has come a long way from suggesting he was just a ‘bridge’ president, and a definite one-termer in 2019. He might even had meant it at the time. Now, he wants to go the distance into a second-term, rocking into his late eighties, experience, and infirmities, in tow. But yes, he is in good health, just like his rival. Biden gaffes do not necessarily make him senile, and can hold their own against various Trumpisms.  

Biden does not, however, as staff writer Linda Feldman of The Christian Science Monitor puts it, have ‘a core base of enthusiasm’ for his candidacy in the Democratic Party. Fine, but there is a TINA factor at play, and Biden does not have 91 felonies against himself either. Felonies, and other legalistic land- mines, any of which could disqualify Trump and open up a whole new race.

However, by way of contrast, the other ancient, his pugnacious challenger Donald Trump, does enjoy massive core support in the Republican Party. Donald Trump thinks, controversially, that the election was stolen from him four years ago, and is spoiling for a rematch. The swing states and polls support Trump. He could win quite handily. The election, in November 2024 is still eleven months away of course, and much could change.

Meanwhile, inflation has hit, skyrocketing grocery and food prices. This may not be grand economics, but it is lived experience for the people. People want to see the prices that existed pre Covid. This, of course, is unlikely because of the bruising the economy has taken over two lockdown years.

The domestic economy, is, in fact, growing now, and has staved off a recession. Unemployment is not a major issue. The Democrat position on free abortion rights makes sense to most women across the two main parties. Most women want the right to decide and do not agree with  male Republican religious fundamentalists who have organised a ban by overthrowing the Roe-Wade judgement.  

Other broader issues such as national security when there are frequent shootings of innocents in public places are being debated and additional measures contemplated. However, the American fundamental right to bear arms is not going away anytime soon.  Immigration is a double-edged sword. Cheap illegal labour on the one hand, and demographic pressures on the other. We have a similar problem with four million or more Bangladeshi infiltrators here in India.

Challenger Donald Trump, has a way of outraging the Democrat voter with his radical pronouncements such as calling certain folk vermin at a veterans’ rally. It works with the White Blue Collars, but not so much with others.

This Trump loud-mouth will work in favour of Biden within his party and support groups, as he invokes the ‘soul of the nation’ like a good Catholic.

Given his long experience in politics, Biden and his handlers, should be able to best any internal Democrat challengers. Biden also connects well with small groups and people in small towns, his ‘Scranton Joe’ image from his hometown in Pennsylvania, and likes going out to speak to them. Being the incumbent president is of immense value in these acts of humility.

In foreign policy, the only ones that can be glad all over are the ones that run the huge military industrial complex in America. They are making massive profits from sales. War is always good for such people.

 Biden’s term began with an abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan leaving behind billions in sophisticated weaponry. While the president got good domestic press for his decisiveness and bringing the troops home, it left a power vacuum in the region, with security implications for several nations, including India.

The war in Ukraine, backed massively by the US and NATO, seems, in year two, to be stuck in the mud and snow. Oil and gas prices are on the edge ever since this war in Europe began. It started a spiral of increasing costs and prices of almost everything for the Western Europeans. Most are not growing and, on the edge of, or actually in, recession.

The sanctions against Russia have not worked when it comes to petroleum, with Russia selling all its output to China and India. In other areas, the Western sanctions have put a check on componentry for Russian arms manufacturing and other sectors. But countries such as Iran, Turkey, Pakistan (who sell ammunition to both sides), North Korea, have made up for some of the shortages. China is not directly involved in military supplies as yet, but is backing Russia.  

The other new war in the Middle East, with Israel staunchly backed by the US, in its battle with the Hamas in Gaza, threatens to spread to and disrupt the sea-lanes of the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, based in Yemen, are slinging Iranian-made missiles, and employing Iranian-made drones, on unarmed merchant ships and oil tankers. Rerouting is a very expensive business, that would more than double the freight rates. Iran denies any involvement. The war has also bled into Syria and against the Hezbollah in Lebanon to an extent. Israel is quite prepared to attack Iran directly and has done so in small part.

There are Muslim groups in America vociferously opposed to the unstinted support to Israel, but this is long term policy for America, unlikely to be affected by radical press, university activism, or ethnic minority outrage. But will these groups, mostly Democrat, vote for Biden? If they don’t, they cannot expect any better from the Republicans either.

There is another thing to consider. Incumbent presidents at war, or supporting them, usually win their second terms convincingly.  The public does not like to change horses in mid-stream. Comparisons between Biden and previous one term presidents may not be appropriate given the context.

As things stand, the war in Israel-Gaza is likely to end much before the campaign period does, with opportunities for statesmanship on the part of President Biden. In Ukraine, President Putin of Russia has apparently indicated he is nor averse to a ceasefire. If the US is able to bring the Ukraine war to a close it will stand Biden in immense good measure.

It is true that Biden’s approval rating at present is below 40% and most pollsters think it is a dead heat between him and Trump, but the presidential campaign has not yet truly begun.

For India, it matters little who wins between Biden and Trump, assuming there are no upsets at the line up on both sides. There are, on the face of it, no alternative nominees for the top of the ticket in either political party.

What matters for India, is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to win a third consecutive term, with a majority for the BJP. This would mean policy continuity. With the Indian economy chugging ahead at between 6 and 7 percent in GDP per annum, we will be well placed to receive the winner in America with warmth and confidence.

The strategic relationship between India and the United States has been painstakingly formulated over several Democrat and Republican administrations. It has largely overcome its hesitations. China is the unabashed contender for world domination, chafing at the bit. The India-America relationship has already contributed towards giving the dragon some pause. This, as it wonders upon, and ponders on, its relative strength vis a vis two battle-hardened and formidable technological powers/armed forces.

India’s relationship with America has consolidated its gains, is now definitely stable, and poised for further growth.  

(1,279 words)

December 28^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee