The Establishment Of A New
India Over A Transformational Decade Starting 2014
Significant beginnings often
go unnoticed. Sometimes they are celebrated with little appreciation of their
longer-term significance. The unanticipated surprise that is part of their DNA,
is buried deep and may not be apparent at first. Later, when the changes it
brings about burst all around us, we cannot take credit for any prescience.
However, more and more over
the last decade, we have grown aware of the unusual and extraordinary vision of
Prime Minister Narendra Modi across the board.
After expecting nothing but
unfulfilled promises and general sluggishness from Indian government
initiatives, with the unspoken question: why couldn’t India, with all its
innate advantages, perform as well as most of the ASEAN countries? Why was it
seemingly at least 50 years behind them? Despite the ruling Congress and UPA
making a virtue of Nehru’s Soviet-style ‘commanding heights of the economy’
policy for the public sector, why did we appear so third-world backward even in
1990?
But for once this was not the
case when the new broom arrived to sweep clean in 2014. The Modi government has
been transformative, changing our logistical constraints with new,
comprehensive, improved infrastructure. It has changed our attitudes. We feel a
new confidence owing to the conduct of our foreign affairs. We have at last got
rid of the post-colonial hangover. We no longer, barring a few old fogeys from
the ancien regime, hanker after Western approval in all that we say and
do.
This administration is
turning improbable economic dreams into reality at great speed, as if it were
on a daily basis.
It refuses to conform to
divisive binaries of religion and caste, despite constant vilification and
carping from the opposition and the leftist sections of the foreign media, to
the absolute contrary.
This government has been
labelled majoritarian, anti-secular etc from day one. It prospers despite all
this, much to the frustration of its detractors and even elicits a degree of
jealousy from the developed West.
It reaches its target
audience in vastly increased welfare projects without leakages owing to
corruption. The rural poor have been provided with gas, electricity, water,
roads, healthcare, education, digital connectivity, reached practically to
their doorstep. And this on a non-discriminatory and universal basis. Housing
has been built for those in need of it, with loans given for their purchase.
Millions of toilets have been built to get rid of the indignity and dangers of
open defecation.
We are learning, as a
country, to avoid the old traps of divide and rule, discarding old laws from
British times, and the manners and mores of the erstwhile administration, that
helped only those who were on their side. The Sarkar was still a mai
baap designed to enslave, till Modi came along to democratise it to an
extent.
The young people of today,
65% of the gargantuan population of over 1.4 billion, identify with this New
India, taking all the evident progress in their stride. Even the beginning of
liberalisation of the economy in 1991, over thirty years ago, is remote to
them, as if belonging to a different country.
We are changing academic
curricula to reflect correct historical perspectives. We are introducing a
living Sanskrit, the study of the Ramayana and the Mahabharata, India’s two
great epics. We are now well aware that history did not begin with the Mughals
and the only symbol of beauty in India is not the Taj Mahal.
Great stories at one level,
our epics, are the basis, along with the Vedas, Puranas, the Upanishads, of the
nuances of Sanatana Dharma. They are not myth as we used to be told. They are
Bharat’s living history and wisdom of 10,000 years. Secularism is no longer
equal to a suppression of the Hindus and their cultural moorings.
History being taught in
schools and colleges now comes with the help of new books shorn of deliberate
Marxist distortions introduced all over academia and publishing in the Nehru
era.
It is a New India completely
different from Nehruvian shibboleths that have kept us trapped in an imported
time warp of ideas for five to six decades. A New India that promises to
deliver a developed country in every practical way by the time the Indian republic
turns hundred, in 2047. A country that will have a GDP of more than $ 30
trillion, up from the $ 4 trillion at present. Who could have ever imagined
this was going to happen in such a short time? What are the dangers though?
External shocks of sufficient magnitude could be the Black Swan. Internally,
losing control of government debt and inflation.
But even this $ 4 trillion in
present GDP represents our march from the 10th largest economy to
the 5th largest, over just the last decade. Our stock market too is
at no.4 in the world now, having overtaken Hong Kong. And the near prospect is
of it becoming the No.3 economy by 2027, with a GDP at $ 10 trillion.
It is nevertheless difficult
to see the significance of a new beginning at first.
The Ram Rath Yatra of
September-October 1990, was undertaken by then president of the BJP, Lal
Krishan Advani, one of just two BJP members of parliament as of 1984. It was
this Ram Rath Yatra that revitalised the BJP, catalysing a widespread Hindu
revival amongst the populace as well.
Its journey from Somnath in
Gujarat was intended to culminate in Ayodhya, but Advani was arrested as he
crossed into Bihar. Some 150,000 Kar Sevaks travelling alongside, were also
arrested in Uttar Pradesh.
The other BJP MP of that time
was Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who six years later, became its first prime minister,
at the head of an unwieldy coalition. Vajpayee, nevertheless adroitly managed
this coalition, and completed a five year-term after a thirteen-day first
innings, plus another year in power. He was not in a position to push many of
the items on the BJP manifesto, but achieved the courageous overt nuclear
weaponisation of India. He also gave a big boost to the infrastructure
development the BJP is still renowned for. He completed, during his time as
prime minister, a good part of the Golden Quadrilateral system of modern
highways connecting the metro cities.
This initial work is still
being carried forward with much greater connectivity by the Modi administration
today.
It took another ten years for
a majority government of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to arrive. The
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with a majority tally of its own, came to power
under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2014.
The substantial electoral
mandate enabled the Modi administration to set about the comprehensive
transformation of India in thought, word and deed. This meant its
infrastructure, the way it saw itself, the way the world saw India, its
economy, science, technology, digital adoption, space technology, defence
manufacturing and aatmanirbhar manufacturing.
Another majority government
back-to-back, with a similar electoral tally in 2019, provided continuity and
momentum. There is now a strong possibility of a similar third consecutive term
in 2024.
This third term is slated to
take India to the third position amongst world economies, a doubled per capita
income once again, and GDP of $ 10 trillion.
The Ram Rath Yatra of 1990
started it all for the BJP, bringing it out of its marginalisation. Despite intense vilification from the then
ruling coalition, it received massive public support, perhaps pent up for decades.
This, even as Advani addressed at least six public gatherings every day. The
Yatra was undertaken by BJP and the RSS to support the Vishwa Hindu Parishad
(VHP) and allied organisations in the Sangh Parivar, who had been agitating for
a Ram Temple at his birth spot in Ayodhya from the 1980s.
This Hindu demand had been simmering ever
since 1528 when the original temple to Lord Ram was demolished by the Mir Baqi,
a general working for Babur, and the Babri Masjid built in its place.
Alongside Advani, throughout
the duration of the Rath Yatra was a little-known RSS Pracharak called Narendra
Damodardas Modi.
This was some years before
Narendra Modi emerged into widespread public
view in 2000, with multiple terms as chief minister of Gujarat.
This very Ram Rath Yatra was
followed by the fairly quick demolition of the Babri Masjid by Kar Sevaks on 6th
December 1992. Decades later still, it led to the establishment of a grand new
Ram Temple at Ayodhya in 2023-2024.In fact, the entire ancient city of Ayodhya
has begun to be transformed alongside, with many more developments in the
works.
International stock broker
Jefferies expects five crore people to visit Ayodhya every year, and completely
transform the economy of the region if not the whole state of Uttar Pradesh.
Something like this sort of influx is also happening at the world’s oldest
city, Varanasi, after similar upgrading of connectivity, infrastructure, and
betterment of the environs of the Kashi Vishwanath temple.
In many ways, the saga of the
Ram Temple in Ayodhya has been crucial to the rise of a new political and
cultural narrative. It has also been instrumental in shaking off the socialist
shackles of Nehruvian India.
And yet, in 1991, forced by
bankruptcy due to its low-income-high-expenditure policies, it was the Congress
under Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao that ushered in political and economic
reform.
This unleashed high growth in
most of the years since. While per capita income has also doubled, it is
hamstrung by India’s massive population, the biggest in the world. However,
millions of people have been lifted out of absolute poverty.
The country has been food
surplus for this entire decade from 2014, with rare shortages of particular
eatables requiring imports from time to time.
Despite the Covid pandemic
that ravaged the world for two years, India held out better than most both in
terms of food and self-preservation. It developed millions of units of two
types of vaccines. The Modi administration not only inoculated over a billion
Indians, mostly free -of -charge, but exported and donated scarce vaccines to
many countries abroad. In addition, due to its production of many medicines at
reasonable cost it is called the pharmacy to the world.
Nandan Nilekani of Infosys
fame, as one of the founders of the storied IT company Infosys, largely
authored the Aadhar project(UIDAI), that today counts 1.3 billion Indians with
this digital and physical ID based on biometrics. This led to the development
of digital public infrastructure for delivery of multiple services. Nilekani
says this has been accomplished in just nine years, something that would have
taken half a century otherwise.
Goldman Sachs, the US
brokerage and financial services giant, put out a report on the 10 Modi
administration years. It not only called
the changes over the past decade transformative, but made some predictions
about the coming years. Manufacturing, says Goldman Sachs, will lead GDP growth
in India for seven years going forward, leading to a steep rise in goods and
services exports. Both will rise by at least 5 percentage points by 2031,
nearly doubling both absolute numbers from the 2021 levels.
The Indian economy is
transforming its infrastructure with great momentum. It has constructed 53 ,700
Km of national highways over the last decade, up from just about half as much
at 25,700 km between 2005 and 2013, says Goldman Sachs.
The Indian Railways, not mentioned
specifically in the report, have been also overhauled, with thousands of
kilometres of new track and doubling of existing track. Rail connectivity to
the entire North East has been achieved for the first time. Electrification of
the Indian Railways is heading towards 100%. The signalling systems have been
automated and turned digital. There is digital mobile ticketing via an App.
There is a huge quantity of domestically manufactured and also exported rolling
stock. The semi-high speed Made in India Vande Bharat trains have been
introduced. There are dedicated freight corridors, and the first of several
bullet trains is nearing its launch date. More than 400 railway stations have
been redesigned and revamped. There are many new railway bridges and tunnels,
as there are road tunnels for all weather connectivity at high altitude. Bottom
line, the Indian Railways that had gone all but bankrupt in 2013, now see much
better financial results and a grand future for itself.
Similarly, the metro systems
are being built or expanded in a score of cities and towns. The one in
Bengaluru, recently expanded with North-South as well as East-West axes, is
transport 800,000 people daily.
The first RRTS system using
made in India high-speed Namo Bharat train sets is being commissioned between
Delhi and Meerut with at least two more on the anvil.
Airports have likewise been
upgraded and new ones built. Indian aviation sector has placed orders for
almost a 1000 new aircraft with Boeing and Airbus.
There are new ports
commissioned and being built and old ones modernised on both sea-boards in
peninsular India. There are new transshipment ports under process both on the
mainland and in the Andamans.
Massive infrastructure to
connect and better religious sites and temples all over the country have led to
a upsurge in pilgrimages and religious tourism.
Lakshwadeep is being
developed for domestic and foreign tourism, even as infrastructure at many
locations on the mainland are being ramped up to welcome the well-heeled
tourist.
A key item of transformation
according to Goldman Sachs is India’s aatmanirbhar manufacturing programmes that makes it less
dependent on external factors. And this is largely underpinned by domestic
demand.
This is perhaps illustrated
most vividly in India’s Tejas, Tejas 1A, AMCA fighter aircraft programmes, the second indigenous
aircraft carrier being built and various other shipbuilding and ship repair
activity, submarine manufacture and refurbishment, the manufacture of combat
helicopters, new light tanks, armoured carriers, missiles of various kinds,
bullet proof vests, combat rifles, drones, and ammunition and yet more. Some of
this work is being done by the private sector now. The private sector also
builds parts and components for aircraft for export. Adherence to its make in
India policy is now crucial to the success of foreign bids to sell and supply
defence and even other equipment.
Border infrastructure is
being transformed along the LaC, the LoC, the international border with
Pakistan, along the Bangladesh and Myanmar borders.
While exports of defence
equipment have also begun to Armenia and the Philippines for example, the need
of the hour is to build as much of India’s massive defence procurement with
pronounced indigenous content. This saves the country billions of dollars, and
is strategically sound. India is also storing fuel in special purpose caverns
to the same end.
With the coming on stream of
new oil and gas off the Arabian Sea coast, India will receive an additional
boost to its indigenous production amounting to some 7% of its requirements.
India has developed huge
refining capacity, and now not only refines all of its crude imports, but also
reexports the refined fuel to a large number of other countries.
India’s broadband communication consumption
has risen exponentially to over 771 .3 million users over the last decade, up
from just 58.9 million users in the eight years prior. That India is also one
of the least expensive markets for mobile communications including data usage
is due to the numbers that use it. It is also now rapidly rolling out 5G
technology.
The Modi government’s push
towards renewable energy is growing as its ability to manufacture solar panels
expands to some 60% of current demand. Post the consecration at Ayodhya, the
prime minister announced that he would like to see a crore of rural households
using subsidised roof top solar panels. In new
affordable housing developments these can be planned in from the start.
Goldman Sachs points out the
country has already installed a total of 95.7 GW of renewable energy capacity
that includes solar and wind energy over the last decade, again up from just
25.5 GW between 2005 and 2014.
One of the virtuous cycles is
that GST collections grow in tandem with the 6- 7% GDP growth year-on-year. This helps to keep
the deficit financing under control, even as the government plans[Gautam Mu1] to increase
its Capex spends by a further 20% in
2024.
India now leads the world in
digital transactions with an exponential rise to 76.1 per cent in 2022-23 up
from just 4.4 per cent in 2015-16.
The real estate sector too is
now thriving with a record number of new launches across the country after a
period of relative despondency.
India has also made a special
effort to revamp the systems in the Sports Ministry, said the prime minister,
while inaugurating the 6th Khelo India Youth Games recently at
Chennai. And certainly, the results[Gautam Mu2] over the
decade bear fulsome testimony to this fact. India has never before won so many
medals in diverse fields.
There has been a nutritional
drive both nationally and internationally with the promotion of ‘Millets’, most
famously on the dinner menu of the heads of state banquet at the G20 Summit
held in New Delhi. Millets may take a bit of getting used to, but are not only
extremely nutritious, but also inexpensive.
India’s progress at ISRO and
its space programmes has been spectacular as well. It has already sent an
unmanned craft to the moon and to observe the Sun and Mars alongside dozens of
satellites for the government, other entities, including foreign payloads.
Government PSUs concerned
with insurance, infrastructure development, defence manufacturing, the
railways, which were nearly dead in the water, are turning out profits. They are soaring on the
stock market and have bulging order book
positions.
The Modi government has been
pushing for the safety of female childbirth and education for girls, and now
its latest initiative at Davos 2024 was to foster global gender equity and
equality.
The prime mover of progress,
besides the Modi government’s efficiency, is definitely a stable political
environment necessary for the growth of economic activity. This has largely
been the contribution of the electoral mandate given by the people.
The more the economy grows,
the greater can be its contribution to India’s development. Fortunately, the
benefits of this growth have helped almost everyone in the country because of
targeted government programmes for the masses. There is not, as the Communists
would have it, huge disparity of basic livelihood, jobless growth, privation of
the many. This, despite millions of people achieving prosperity at the top 10%
of the pyramid. We are no longer distributing poverty as we did under
socialism, with no money at 2% GDP or less, to pay for the welfare.
While any listing of
achievements of the 10 years of Modi government is unlikely to be exhaustive,
what is astounding is the number of areas it has tackled, and all in mission
mode. This is a prime minister that has never taken a day off from his work. The
results of such exemplary zeal are therefore evident all around us.
(3,154 words)
January 23rd, 2024
For: The Sunday Guardian
Special
Gautam Mukherjee
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