The Possibility of Another Donald Trump Presidency Spooks NATO

The presumptive Republican Party nominee Donald Trump, is inching ever closer to the US presidency as his legal challenges melt away. Polls show him ahead of President Joe Biden. Even critics who think it will be a close election give Trump a fifty-fifty chance right now.

NATO in Europe, much closer to the war in Ukraine than the US across the Atlantic, is scrambling to mobilise resources to ‘Trump-proof’ themselves in anticipation. Trump has recently said Russia can do ‘what the hell it likes’ to any European country that does not pay its share in NATO and its war support to Ukraine.

Actually, Europe realises it needs to think much beyond Ukraine going forward, because Trump’s transactional and quid-pro-quo style will not treat their security as guaranteed by Uncle Sam. Finland, for example, has just ordered 64 F-35A fighter jets from the US, and has decided to double artillery shell production.

The outgoing NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, is drumming up support for the now 32 member-country NATO to establish a new five-year, 100 billion euro fund for the battle in Ukraine. But many in Europe and America realise that Ukraine is militarily unequal, finding it difficult to find more conscripts let alone trained soldiers, and that there is massive corruption in addition to gross incompetence.

Twenty of the 32 member NATO have set a target of spending 2% of GDP for defence this year as called for earlier. But Trump says NATO security guarantees would only apply to those countries that actually meet their defence spending commitments. This will profoundly change the way that NATO operates.

Stoltenberg, a former prime minister of Norway and an international diplomat wants Europe to assume leadership of the Ramstein Group which gathers more than 50 countries to coordinate weapons deliveries to Kyiv. This sounds like a fond hope rather than practical strategy.

The Ramstein Group includes NATO, countries in the EU, and allies in the Asia-Pacific including Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. Even though the group is unwieldy, it has worked fine with US leadership, but may not hold together under a far weaker European captaincy. Besides, how much good money can be thrown after bad in the name of a woolly policy platform that demonises Russia?

Countries like Slovakia and Hungary, closer to Russia, are not in favour of the new proposed fund gathering. Others in southern Europe, such as Spain and Italy, are wary of duplication of this quota-funding beyond EU payments of 50 billion euros already in place.

America under Democrat President Joe Biden is committed to continued aid and arms to Ukraine, but has already poured in $ 75 billion in the last two years. It is finding it difficult to get bipartisan approval for more arms and funds. Ukraine meanwhile has largely run out of ammunition, even as it clamours for more of the very expensive Patriot missiles and fighter jets. How much of the money and arms pouring out of America are just gifts? Neither European NATO nor Ukraine can afford to pay back.

Russia has warned against troops from France getting directly involved in Ukraine, and said this would raise the threat of nuclear war in the European region beyond Ukraine. Any misstep could trigger WWIII.

 Secretary General Stoltenberg retires later this year, and will not have to face the challenges from a possible Trump White House personally. He has been at the helm of NATO for a decade already. He is tipped to be replaced by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte as his successor. Before he leaves office however, Stoltenberg will preside over the 75^th anniversary of NATO, at a summit in Washington in July.

At the 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed frustration at Ukraine being kept out of the NATO alliance. Those opposed, think that letting Ukraine join NATO while the war with Russia  has raged on for over two years now, will likely provoke sharp and dangerous reactions from President Vladimir Putin. Besides there is a growing perception that Ukraine has already lost the war and it is time NATO pulled the plug.

Placing NATO on Russia’s doorstep with the inclusion of Ukraine, even though it cannot pay its way with a devastated economy, is a violation of previous understandings, according to Russia. It was one of the reasons why Russia went to war against Ukraine in the first place. The other was Ukraine’s harsh treatment of Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region bordering Russia.

However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently told reporters in Brussels that ‘Ukraine will become a member of NATO. Our purpose at the summit is to help build a bridge to that membership’. If Biden does not win the presidency in November, then this process of ‘bridge’ building will most likely not be pursued. Trump is certainly not in favour of mollycoddling Ukraine’s security at the expense of Russia. Various member countries such as Poland that want Ukraine in NATO may not find much purchase with Trump in the White House.

Candidate Donald Trump has let it be known he will ‘settle’ the war in Ukraine, if elected to office, ‘in 24 hours’, without specifying how. His formula flies in the face of those in Europe and America who do not want to concede any Ukrainian territory to Russia. Trump favours ceding the territory claimed by Russia in the Donbas region and beyond. Others think this will encourage Russia to invade again but surely this can work both ways. There will have to be a massive international reconstruction effort in what remains of Ukraine after a settlement in any case. This means business for many. Nevertheless, the brightest hope of a swift end to the war in Ukraine is Trump back in the saddle.

Similarly, Trump has a 2020 formula for ending the war in Gaza. He wants Jerusalem and the West Bank occupied territories as part of Israel, and simultaneously a Palestinian state established. Only America can make this happen. This solution is likely to be supported by the major Arab countries already drawn in by the Abrahamic Accords from Trump1.0.

Trump’s ideas on Iran, North Korea, China, Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, are not that different from that of Democrat President Joe Biden and the State Department. They will have to evolve after he comes to office of course.

India will continue to be considered a strategic ally of the US in the South Asian region and as a bulwark against Chinese hegemony.  There will be more collaborations, joint ventures, American investment, and defence technology transfer. India is likely to rapidly gain from more manufacturing relocations from China. Trump and Narendra Modi also have a personal chemistry that will help. However, the IT industry may face challenges with visa restrictions on working in the US.

Pakistan will probably receive less American support than it does at present with a Republican administration in office. It will most likely be clubbed with China strategically.

American relations with Russia will proceed at a better pace, as Trump has no real quarrel with Putin, and Trump will withdraw all sanctions against Russia and encourage his western allies to do so. To some extent this will free Russia to forge better ties with the West, instead of being limited to a Chinese embrace.

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April 9^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee