Bam Bam Marcos Refuses To Countenance Chinese Aggression In South China Sea

China claims a good deal of marine territory in the South China Sea for well over a decade now. It is prickly with all shipping in the area, stalking it with  navy ships and aircraft. It routinely water cannons Philippine ships, coast guard vessels, and fishing boats, and those of other smaller countries in the littoral.

 It does not dare to physically harass US ships and aeroplanes that patrol the South China Sea to keep the sea lanes open. But it blockades the Filipino ships trying to go to its territory such as the Second Thomas Shoal. China issues statements like ‘do not play with fire’ to Manila. It loftily chides the United States too, for destabilising its maritime backyard, but with due care.

However, the dragon is increasingly running into headwinds as more and more countries band together to check its ambitions. Pressure is being met with counter pressure.

The other countries of the basin, those in ASEAN, bigger, nuclear weaponised powers, accept the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling of 2016. It says the South China Sea has international waterways for the use of all.  It was the Philippines that had taken the matter of constant Chinese bullying and tense sea-standoffs to the ICJ in 2013. So, it is not surprising that the Philippines is at the forefront of the pushback.

China did not recognise this 2016 ruling, and indeed the ICJ in general.  It is true that the rulings of the ICJ on various matters are not binding, but are generally respected by all.

The long festering disputes have also directly affected Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, Japan, and farther afield, Australia. Its hard to say if the CCP and President Xi Jinping are playing top-dog as an act of dominance, or the real reasons are economic.

The Chinese deeper motivations may be to do with the knowledge that there is likely a large amount of petroleum in these waters. Therefore, its actions go beyond denying countries in the area their fishing rights or claim to island like bodies and shoals. There is more to its proclaiming Chinese sovereignty over the international waterway. If they got their way, the Chinese would probably control access and ingress to the sea as if it were the Suez or Panama Canal, and charge everyone else a fee.

This is clearly unacceptable with regard to the freedom of the seas, and a potential flashpoint to all, including India, already plagued by China.

Chinese spy-ships, navy and submarines, constantly ply in the Malacca Straits and Andaman/Nicobar Islands area, the broader Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. This is aided by Chinese bases in Sri Lanka at Hambantota, in Bangladesh where it has ostensibly built a submarine base for it, from the Maldives, from the Coco Islands of Myanmar, farther afield at Djibouti.

India is helped in guarding the Indian Ocean area by the US Navy, plus the French and British navies in particular.  

India, not only participates in QUAD and the Malabar Exercises on a regular basis with other countries, but joins in the naval exercises in the South China Sea as well. It has now opened two shipyards, in Kattupalli, near Chennai, and another in Cochin, to repair and service US and British ships.

Ever since the legendary Ferdinand Marcos’ son, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., nick-named Bam-Bam in his youth, came to power, the Philippines has upped the ante against Chinese hegemony. There is no longer much effort to appease China, or deal with it using do-nothing but hot rhetoric, though a diplomatic and political dialogue is still maintained.

The Philippines is the first foreign country to order three batteries of Brahmos anti-ship shore based supersonic cruise missiles from India. It has had its navy personnel trained in their use by India. These missiles, ordered a couple of years ago, are presently being delivered and placed. They are being deployed to protect Filipino interests in the South China Sea. The Indo-Russian Brahmos, manufactured in India, comes in air, sea, land and submarine variants, and  are widely acknowledged to be the fastest and most devastating missiles in the world.

In November 2023 Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. began work on a security pact that would allow the conduct of joint military exercises. Japan has also agreed to finance surveillance radars for the Philippine navy.

Recently, the Philippines deployed its South Korean made fighters in joint air exercises with Australia.

Vietnam, after clashing militarily with China and winning the battle in the past, is now more accommodative of Chinese concerns with a view to its trade relations with it. However, Vietnam too is exploring buying armaments from India because of the constant harassment, inclusive of the Brahmos missiles. It also buys from the US.

This Red China hegemony over the waters of the South China Sea is replete with the unilateral construction of several artificial islands, some with substantial airfields, capable of hosting Chinese fighter aircraft.

The implications of this militarisation of disputed international waters are of concern to US ally Japan with a large number of US troops stationed in-country. Japan is often subjected to Chinese sabre-rattling in the East China Sea, where too China claims a number of Japanese islands. Again, the motive seems to be oil, though perching so close to the Japanese mainland is another Chinese imperialistic and strategic consideration. Chinese ally North Korea also sporadically fires its menacing missiles into the East China Sea.

Likewise, Australia that receives 80% of its goods and trade via the South China Sea is not at all willing to allow China to flout the international rule of law.

The United States, Japan, Australia and the Philippines have just held their first joint naval exercises including anti-submarine warfare training  and air cover on April 7^th 2024. These were pointedly held in the South China Sea as a clear message and warning to Beijing. The Philippines also participated in the Japan led multinational naval exercise as an observer for the first time in 2023. The international community, including most notably the US, as the most powerful Western country, is keen to defend a ‘free and open’ Indo-Pacific. Otherwise, China, the world’s second largest economy, might be tempted to ride rough shod.

This naval exercise was followed by President Biden hosting a trilateral summit with Japan and the Philippines in Washington where a substantial number, 73 defence pacts, were signed with Japan. This included a proposal to draw Japan into the AUKUS military configuration along with the US, Australia and the UK. Japan has considerably changed its erstwhile pacifist military position to make all this possible.

The command and control structures in all three countries received special attention as they are crucial to rapid deployment.

The US is treaty bound to defend both the Philippines and Japan against any aggression but is both upgrading and renewing its terms. President Biden called these commitments ‘iron-clad’ in the recent summit.

 Is there economic leverage given that a collapsed real estate sector has roiled the Chinese economy? US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent week-long visit to China underlined the American concern against China dumping manufactured steel items at cut-prices due to Chinese over capacity. This would harm American and allied industry. Yellen recalled the damage a similar dumping had done to US steel manufacture a decade ago. No retaliatory threats were issued, for now.

However, China is likely to continue with its policy of stepped-up exports as part of its drive to achieve 5% growth.

A combination of factors has created a tinder box that only Chinese policy u- turns can salvage. China however plans to capture Taiwan, continue with its hegemony in the South and East China Seas, its sharp trade practices, its aggressive intransigence along the Indo-Chinese LaC.

And so the game of chicken continues. Will China blink first, or rely on the ‘decadent’ West’s greed in trade matters to win the day?

(1,325 words)

April 12^th, 2024

For: Firstpost

Gautam Mukherjee