Renewed Threat Of Nuke Wars In Space As Powers Seek Multiple Capacity To Destroy Rival Satellite Infrastructure

Russia vetoed a UNSC resolution on April 24^th 2024 with regard to the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, probably tabled to prevent it developing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon, even though China and the US are covertly developing them too.

Thirteen other members of the broader Security Council voted in favour, while China abstained. Japan and the United States had drafted the resolution to uphold Article 4 of the Outer Space Treaty, which does not allow countries from placing nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit. The resolution had an additional 63 nation co-sponsors. It was based on US intelligence reports that Russia was developing a nuclear ASAT device that could damage or destroy a large number of satellites in low earth orbit. It could also prove a danger to astronauts. Russia denied working on any such device.

The consensus amongst the world’s strategic thinkers is that space is no longer a place for peaceful and cooperative exploration, but like other quests before it in land and sea on earth, it is the new vista for complex combat, and a jockeying for supremacy.

The key player is the US, that enjoys pole position in space currently, but this is being challenged now by China and Russia. The strategic necessity is for the US to stay ahead, so that it can’t be overwhelmed. In the event of war with China, rather than Russia, this would prove crucial. Russia is not bent on world domination, despite its ongoing war with Ukraine, and so its programme is essentially geared towards protecting its own assets and survival.

One or more nuclear weapons detonated in space will either suddenly knock- out, or gradually ‘fry’ the electronics of satellites in its environs. There are some very expensively made American satellites that carry its nuclear codes  that can withstand known anti-satellite weapons. The vast majority, of over 8,000 satellites in space put up by various countries and private entities however, are for commercial, communication, navigation, weather monitoring, mapping, surveillance, and other, mainly non-military uses. These can be badly affected or rendered useless by targeted attacks.

China, Russia, and America are all developing anti-satellite weaponry and deployment vehicles including the testing of small, reusable, inspection and delivery vehicles.

The effects of nuclear detonations in space are known from multiple nuclear tests conducted by both the US and the Soviets/Russians in the old days. Similar tests have been conducted by the Chinese, and even India, that has conducted a single test. Destroying or disabling one’s own obsolete satellites is a favourite testing method.

There is a broad consensus not to add to debris in space that, in the absence of gravity, hamper other working satellites for a very long time. Fortunately, even the radioactive debris from the earlier tests burn-out on entering the earth’s atmosphere.  

While international protocols have banned more nuclear tests in space, there is nothing as yet to universally stop countries developing anti-satellite nuclear weaponry, their subsequent testing, and deployment in space. The destructive power and threatened radioactive fallout of such weapons is looming large. Strategic necessity is goading the leading powers to forge ahead with the development of space weaponry so as not to be outclassed or left behind

There is also the entire world of cyber attacks which could be used to disable satellites in space. You need a successful hacking, from right here on earth. Satellites can even be programmed to destroy each other in space in response to earth-based commands. So, processes that enable a satellite to come near to repair or assist another, can swiftly be turned to aggressive purpose.

There are ‘directed energy’ weapons such as lasers, high-power microwaves, radio frequency jammers, ‘dazzlers’, that can be deployed, both on earth and in space. Going after ground stations or communication links can be another way.

With the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI), satellites can do a measure of their own thinking to take evasive action, but AI based fakery could catalyse miscalculations between rivals. How much things have progressed can be gauged by the fact that destroyed satellites can be replaced in 24 hours, instead of 6-12 months.

Analysts think the first moments of WWIII, if it were to come, would be a race to knock out or cripple enemy satellites in space for the enormous disruptions it would cause. There are low, medium, and high orbit satellites for different purposes in close proximity to each other.

The present American thinking is to throw up more and more satellites with replicated abilities and enhancements, in different orbits. To the over 6,000 American satellites, versus about 600 Chinese ones, out of a total of 8,000 odd orbiting now, it would be difficult, if not impossible, for the enemy to disable or destroy more than a limited number at once. There would, of course, be swift retaliation in seconds.

President Trump caused the establishment of the Space Force in 2019, that is now rapidly growing in terms of both personnel and budgets. The trained specialists are being posted in all branches of the military, especially the air force. There is also the Space Command, the so called ‘Guardians’, that oversees practically all of space from 100km above sea level onwards.

With space being yet another high-stakes frontier, the US is not stinting on resources to keep itself at the forefront. Budgets and command structures apart, in the space game of dominion, the attacker has the advantage. Satellites at near Earth orbit travel at 17,000 miles per hour. It’s a swift war, if it comes, and one’s intelligence information must be timely, and action must be pre-emptive, and foolproof.   

(937 words)

April 26^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee