Will Additional
Global Conflict In Europe & Between China And America Catapult India
Forward?
What is the Space-Eye-view of our situation on earth? Or can one only
see a golf ball sized planet in just this one galaxy?
Space is the new frontier. Exploration, intended exploitation of
minerals, the search for water, territory fit to inhabit, possible space wars,
all loom large. It is shaping up to be much more than sending up satellites to
watch the earth and facilitate communications. More than the to-ing and fro-ing
of tourists on spaceships and putting in space stations for research.
Are we actually in a space race from the same earthly motivations of
power play? That same ‘March of Nations’ postulated by the complex 19th century
German thinker and philosopher Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831). His Hegelian Dialectic, about the rubbing against
each other, of nations, was a far grander concept than that of the unemployed theoretician
Marx. Karl Marx (1818-1883), lifted the concept of the Hegelian Dialectic and
corrupted it, into a mere tussle between Labour and Capital.
Hegel said the history of the world is moved forward by different
dominant nations at different times. Certainly, we can see how the once mighty
Romans did so. And more recently, the British Empire, growing ever more extensive
till the sun never set on it. But right within it, at its zenith, the seeds of
change were planted. This was in the reign of Queen Victoria.
The royal families of Europe were populated by the several Germanic sons
and daughters of Queen Victoria and their cousins. Of these, a notable rivalry
grew between her heir-apparent and eldest son Bertie, The Price of Wales
(1841-1910), who became Edward VII after her, and the last Kaiser of Germany,
Wilhelm II (1859 -1941), who reigned from 1888 to 1918, when he had to abdicate.
Germany wanted dominion over Western Europe and the high seas of the
world. And after Queen Victoria died in 1901, at the end of a reign spanning 63
years and 216 days, this rivalry sharpened, as both countries prepared for war.
This rivalry was neither ordinary or harmless. It was reminiscent of
that described in the monumental Indian epic, the Mahabharata. The one that
destroyed the Kshatriya regal domination forever.
There was enormous jealousy in Germany, and a desire to turn the tables
on Britain. This turned into friction in the first decade of the 20th
century when Bertie became Edward VII. WWI came as early as 1914, with the
spark ignited at Sarajevo when Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir presumptive
to the throne of Austria, was assassinated by Gavrilo Princip, a 19 year-old
member of Young Bosnia.
The events that followed in rapid succession would change the entire landscape of Europe
irrevocably.
Besides the Archduke, the first of the European royals to leave the
stage was another cousin of Edward VII, the absolute monarch, Tsar of the
Russias, Nicholas II.
Tsar Nicholas II, the last of the Romanovs, ruled from 1894, till he was
overthrown (1917), and assassinated with his entire family by the members of
the Bolshevik Revolution (1918). This was a profound development, because
Imperial Russia was the largest and richest country in Europe.
The fun-loving Bertie, almost forever the Prince of Wales, became Edward
VII but not for long. His short reign of just under a decade did not permit him
to personally witness the start of WWI, or the deposition and murder of his
cousin Nicholas.
The period from the dawn of the 20th century, saw cataclysmic
changes for the old order. It went on right till the end of WWII in 1945. In these
45 years, the world order was altered drastically. Millions of people of all
races and creeds from Europe and the Empire were killed in the two world wars. And
for both wars, the March of Nations chose Germany as the main protagonist.
1901-45 witnessed the end of agrarianism as the basis of the world
economy. It decimated the ranks of the aristocracy that generally led in war
from the front. It ended inflation that had stayed incomprehensibly rock solid
at just 4% over a hundred years. It practically finished the gold standard. It buried
slavery and colonialism. It heralded the death of Empire and the Imperial Age.
In short, it ushered in the take-over of a much more egalitarian,
democratic, industrial and mercantilist era, based on new products and
technology seen for the first time. The pulse of the world quickened, and the globe
began to grow smaller.
America became the greatest, most powerful, and wealthy country in the
world. The post WWII order held for decades, with the Western and Soviet Blocks
competing for dominance. This was surely the third coming of the March of Nations,
with America emerging as the dominant global power.
The challenge from the Soviet block eventually proved unequal to the
task, as the Warsaw Pact broke down, and the Berlin Wall was demolished, before
the USSR itself was dismantled.
Communism revived though, via the rise of China, aided and abetted for
decades by America, creating its own Frankenstein monster in the process.
But the promise of the Communist Internationale and World dominion died early
with the demise of the Soviet Union. But does China under Xi Jinping, a
revivalist Mao Zedong in temperament, realise it? In this hubris, like that of
Kaiser Wilhelm II and Adolf Hitler, lie the seeds of its own destruction. The
March of Nations has caused China to rub up against the West, but it will be
lost at sea because it is not destined to rule the world.
The baton truly passed from a Pax Britannica, after a paroxysm of blood,
to a Pax Americana. Both echo a long ago Pax Romana that lasted 200 years
between 27 BC and 180 AD centred in Rome in the West, before passing on to
Constantinople for another 200 years.
We are now on the brink of a new phase of the Hegelian march, minus
China in the ascendant. The nuclear deterrent is still holding since WWII, but
the first war in Europe has arrived in over seventy years. This is not with the
USSR, as might have been expected, but its rump, the Russian Republic.
This is proving most debilitating for the NATO/EU/allied countries.
Inflation is rampant. Growth is down. Unemployment stalks the streets. This
even though it is a proxy war via the Ukrainians. The stubborn Russian
Federation refuses to yield. The West won’t give it what it wants. But the
prolongation of the conflict is drawing Russia ever closer into a Chinese
embrace.
The most destabilising and dangerous thing about the war in Ukraine is
that it ostensibly goes much beyond it. The West is determined to
destroy Russian power once and for all. While Russia, a huge country and a
formidable military power, in alliance with China, its satellite North Korea
and a much-debilitated Pakistan, is doing its best to resist.
Pakistan, long used to being subsidised by America and then China, will
be the first of the three to break into pieces, because of its enormous
mountain of debt. This could come even before the end of the present decade.
China will lose its proxy partner in its battle for domination of India,
weakening it. This, even as its own economy, grown from nothing by its dependence
on exports to the West is also reeling under enormous debt. The Chinese economy
is destined to keep getting worse as the world no longer trusts it. Its supply
chains are moving to other countries, including India.
The resultant economic turmoil amongst the people of China will cause
them to challenge the CPC once again. This time it won’t be easy to put down.
This unrest could lead to a break up of China as well, starting with all
territories beyond the Han heartland. This is likely in the early 2030s.
But perhaps not before China tries to dominate the situation by going to
war with America. The spark will probably be lit over its attempted invasion of
Taiwan and blockading of the South and East China Seas.
No nuclear weapons will still be used because of its guaranteed zero-sum
game.
China will, of course, lose the conventional war with America and its
allies which include the QUAD, AUKUS and NATO.
Russia will descend into a less influential power post this debacle,
with the loss of its Chinese ally, just as the West intends.
India meanwhile will develop into a substantial military power over the
next decade, and be able to defend its borders against China and Pakistan. The
latter may also attempt another war, egged on by China. But this will only
hasten its break-up. PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan will return to the Indian fold. America
will diplomatically, via its intelligence services, and militarily, back India,
along with its Western allies, in taking over PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. Not
only do the territories belong to it in the first place, but America will back
India in delivering a body blow to both Pakistan and China. This would be
accomplished without America having to put its boots on the ground.
China’s CPEC, already in economic trouble, will fail with the loss of
PoK. The Siachen Glacier and Chinese roads to Tibet will be compromised. The
damaging of access to Tibet will be the beginning of its eventual liberation in
the 2030s.
The shape of things to come is evident, as India is being created into a
sophisticated fighting force by the West with its liberal transfer of high
technology in defence. It is also being supported in other areas such as
semiconductors and Artificial Intelligence. This will certainly strengthen
India by filling in the gaps and chinks. For the West, it will place a formidable
fighting force across the bows of a belligerent China that has fought no real
wars.
India will participate in and oversee the defence of the Indian Ocean,
the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal and the Malacca Straits. It will join hands
with the QUAD/AUKUS and France to defend South Asia
and the Asia-Pacific.
When all this is over in less than a decade from today, India will truly
emerge as a legitimate super power. Will it be leading the March of Nations? It will certainly reach No.3 economy status,
or is it No.2, with a vast increase both in GDP and influence. America will
retain its position at No.1 and its technological ascendancy in the world.
The intervening period will be dominated by the BJP in power throughout,
carried over the threshold in 2024 by the visionary and charismatic Narendra
Modi.
Longer term, the present challenges to its emergence as a Hindu Rashtra
that carries its minorities with humanity and justice will fall away for good
under his successors.
(1,787 words)
July 29th,
2023
For:
Firstpost/News18.com
Gautam
Mukherjee
