NDA Vs I.N.D.I.A. Is Majoritarian Nationalism Plus Economic Prosperity Against Liberal Minorityism & Classic Socialism

 

While the film version of pink and sky-blue hued Barbie is trumping Oppenheimer in the United States box office takes, it is Oppenheimer, the biographical thriller written and directed by Christopher Nolan, that is leading in India.

The reference to a phrase from the Bhagavad Gita, the revered Hindu text that Oppenheimer read compulsively to overcome his moral dilemma at becoming the instrument of so much death and destruction, may have something to do with the interest in India.

Both Robert Oppenheimer, a Jew, and Werner Heisenberg, gentile, a Lutheran Christian, set about building the world’s first nuclear bomb using their knowledge quantum physics. 

Heisenberg was one of the youngest people to win the Nobel prize for Physics in 1931. He had authored The Uncertainty Principle on the behaviour of sub-atomic particles in 1927.

Robert Oppenheimer succeeded in building the atomic bomb at the head of a crack team of scientists tucked away in Los Alamos, New Mexico, on behalf of America and its Allies. His motivation, ostensibly was to end the war, in which he definitely succeeded, though the question remains whether the use of an atomic bomb, or two of them, was actually necessary to this end. The decision was President Harry S Truman’s, a former general himself, and not Oppenheimer’s, of course.

Heisenberg worked on behalf of Nazi Germany, but was apparently a patriot and not a Nazi. He could not, or it is suggested, deliberately did not, build the Nazi bomb, even though the Nazi programme started first in 1938. Heisenberg and his team of scientists steered their work towards peaceful nuclear reactors to produce energy instead. It is also suggested that the resources needed, beyond 1200 tons of uranium supplied from occupied Belgium, could not be provided in 1942, when the go-ahead for the bomb was received, by a beleaguered Germany. 

Werner Karl Heisenberg lived on after the war till 1976, when he died in Munich, regarded till the end as a brilliant man of science. A man who did not build the bomb out of conviction, though his theoretical science, in the very home of quantum physics, was ahead of all others.

This, while Julius Robert Oppenheimer, in America, who also began his mission to build the bomb in 1942, became a haunted man, a pariah as ‘the father of the atomic bomb’. This, after the extent of the devastation wrought from his deadly invention became known.

Oppenheimer was always suspected of Communist sympathies, and this combined with his post-war advocacy against nuclear proliferation, the development of the hydrogen bomb, the nuclear arms race with the Soviet Union, and so on, became a basis for the American power establishment to turn their backs on him.

They also threw him out of coveted university and organisational positions. Oppenheimer still continued to lecture, write and work in physics till the end. He died at the age of 62 in 1967, having been largely reinstated in the graces of the American government, by 1963. He remains, in his legacy, one of the most important figures of the 20^th century.  

Oppenheimer’s success led to the dropping of two nuclear bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in Japan by the Americans with months of his proof-of-concept explosion in the Los Alamos desert named Trinity. This effectively led to the surrender of Imperial Japan. Nazi Germany also surrendered in 1945, thereby bringing WWII to a close.

It is seen therefore, from this revived and current tale, how closely success and failure resemble each other.

India is now on a fated path towards the next general election, most likely between March and May 2024. The next eight to ten months will determine whether the Indian electorate gives a third consecutive term to Narendra Modi and the 38-member National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Or will it choose the 27-party opposition combine newly named Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.). The NDA currently has a comfortable majority in the Lok Sabha and a near majority in the Rajya Sabha too. The opposition combine has approximately 144 seats in the Lok Sabha. Another 91 MPs who sit across the aisle from the NDA are neutral though they often vote along with the NDA on a case-to-case basis.

If the NDA is elected with a clear majority once again for the third consecutive time, then the present policies will receive the boost of continuity. Their plus points principally are a robust, mostly majoritarian nationalism, attention to national defence, infrastructure development, manufacturing, trade, welfarism, and steady, all round economic growth. Inclusiveness, as in Sabka Vikas, Sabka Prayas, is a stated objective, but while government programmes are not discriminatory, it remains to be seen how much of an electoral draw this stance engenders in the polls.

On the other side, the opposition combine is a rickety construct of contradictions united  mostly in its desire to oust the present dispensation. It is something of a do-or-die situation for this combine which accounts for one unrest or the other in these months up to the elections. There are foreign forces in alignment with this opposition who do not relish the continuance of a strong Hindu nationalist government.

While largely made up of regional parties, some of whom such as the DMK, TMC, AAP, JDU/RJD are in power - in Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Delhi, Punjab and Bihar respectively, most are not. There are multiple contradictions. The CPI(M) are opposed to the TMC in West Bengal, but are in power in Kerala. The Congress is in power in Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and are a coalition partner in Jharkhand. This, could, of course, grow in the forthcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere to be held before the general elections. How many seats this large combine gets in the new Lok Sabha, and from where, will determine the prime ministerial candidate. Congress is clearly ahead of all others, and will be, if all goes well, in pole position to nominate the future prime minister, should I.N.D.I.A. come within striking distance of a cobbled-together majority. It will work on a common minimum programme.

Past experience shows that unless there is an anchoring party with about 150 seats, such coalitions rapidly collapse in a matter of a few months. Besides, should the NDA be forced to sit on the opposition benches, it will be hyperactive to try and bring the ruling coalition down at the earliest.

As for its economics and politics, it is certain to favour the minorities whose votes the opposition combine is likely to get in large numbers, and reward them with populist sops. This will affect the momentum of the economy but make for happier voters. Much of the liberal socialist ethos pushed aside by the NDA will be quickly restored.

Democracy works on the will of the people and therefore either continuity or change, including a change that seeks to go back a distance to what it considers first principles, will have to be accepted. The present wisdom suggests the opposition has little chance of coming to power, but the upset of 2004 when India was ostensibly shining cannot be forgotten.

 (1,184 words)

July 26^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Chandrayaan 3 Moonshot and French Bastille Day on Friday 14 July Are Momentous For India

India is decidedly going places. This is to the pain and horror of the poison press amongst the Leftists in the West. The garish desi dreamers who want a return to the pretentious past of the rosebud wearing Nehru are also frustrated. And, of course, the disgruntled types from our second largest majority, who look like they just ate the Bhut Jalokia, said to be the hottest pepper in the world.

Fact is, India under Hindu Nationalist Narendra Modi is not a communal morass. It has better fish to fry, and is indeed going places.

A Goldman Sachs survey, driven by the idea that a young growing population signals prosperity, says the Indian GDP will be at $52.5 trillion in 2075, putting it at No.2, behind China, but up from the 3^rd position it is likely to secure by 2028 or 2030.

And over the next two decades, or 2043, ‘the dependency ratio of India will be one of the lowest among regional economies’, according to the report.

And the enhanced prosperity won’t come from discoveries of oil, gold, or other natural resources, but from capital investment, innovation, technology, and the demographic dividend. 

In fact, the decline of the West is due to depleting and ageing population and lower productivity, according to the report.

One clue on the billions and trillions to come to India, is in low to high end chip manufacturing and testing. Other promising areas involve digital and artificial intelligence universes.

India could well become the next global semiconductor hub, replacing the always under-threat Taiwan. Taking chip making away to America renders it too expensive. The semiconductor Industry in India is being set up by the Americans, the Taiwanese, the Indians themselves, the Europeans, The South Koreans, amongst others. It will cater to India’s own gargantuan appetite, and export millions of chips in the bargain, made at a competitive cost, and without any geopolitical worries attendant. Many countries with which India has poor balance of payment problems, with will get sorted out by the export of these essential devices.

China will however still be No.1 in 2075 with $ 57 trillion in GDP, having overtaken America by 2035, says the report. But remember this 2035 date has been pushed back several times already, and China, with its ageing population due to its One Child Policy is not very well placed to achieve this forecast. It will have slowed growth for at least three decades to come. Its belligerence is also counter-productive to retention of a Chinese supply chain. Its chief buyers in the West, collectively accounting for some $ 3 trillion in exports per annum, may not be able, or choose to, sustain such numbers going forward. And Chinese monopolies on minerals may well be substituted from other sources.

The Euro area, meaning Western Europe, will be collectively at $30.3 trillion, says the report, and America will be at No.3 with $51.5 trillion. 

Japan will be at a mere $ 7.5 trillion, quite lost in the rankings along with Russia even further down the list.

But, young population advantages apart, how the report, authored principally by economists Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas thinks Pakistan will be a $ 12 trillion plus economy, ranked at No.6 by then, is a mystery! Of course, the big caveat is that this can only happen, given, ‘the appropriate policies and institutions’. Pakistan today is all but bankrupt, with no way out of its predicament.

It is more probable that America, because of its innate ability to innovate and develop technology better than any other country, and its formidable military, will still be No.1 in 2075.

Coming back to the present, July 14^th, Friday, 2023, is turning out to be another momentous day for India.  It will witness the scheduled launch for the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO’s) Chandrayaan 3, four tons of spacecraft, at 2.35 pm.  The Prime Minister won’t be in Sriharikota to witness the launch, powered by ISRO’s most powerful two ton rocket this time.

He will be in Paris on 13-14 July as the Chief Guest for Bastille Day. Prime Minister Modi, will be accompanied not only by his senior staff but a 280 member tri-services armed forces contingent that will march in the parade. Three Indian Rafale fighters will fly-past the Champ Elysees. This attendance at France’s National Day celebration also marks 25 years of the India-France strategic partnership.

Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to sign several pathbreaking defence equipment and complete technology transfer agreements in Paris. These include the acquisition of 26 Rafale Naval aircraft for India’s newest aircraft carrier, a 110-130 KiloNewton Safran engine with complete technology transfer for India’s AMCA MK2 Stealth fighters,  another engine  to be jointly developed for India’s light combat helicopters, three  more Scorpene Class conventional submarines to be built in India as soon as possible, and technology collaboration in a joint venture on the latest French Barracuda Class Nuclear submarines to be built in India.

In the backdrop of discussions on whether to grant Ukraine ‘de facto’ NATO membership, it is likely that the India-France Strategic Relationship may be enhanced after discussions. This, with specific reference to the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific areas. France has a lot of territory and overseas citizenry in the Indo-Pacific.

For India, an enhanced Indo-French Strategic Partnership will be in addition to its membership in QUAD. For France, it will formalise its role in the region where it has bases in the Indian Ocean and regularly patrols it.

India has begun repair and refurbish some categories of US Naval ships in its ports, and could do the same for the French Navy as well. From the point of the Chinese threat posed in the area, this Indo-French cooperation will boost peace and tranquillity.

India is also creating a new transshipment base in the Nicobar Islands and enhancing it tri-services and naval presence and facilities in the Andaman and Nicobar region with its headquarters in Port Blair. The entire series of islands are strategic and overlook the Malacca Straits, a vital shipping route for China. Participating in this development could enhance trade and technology exchanges between our two nations.

On the way back from France, Prime Minister Modi will stop over in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) a I2 U2 Partner. He will meet, to meet with its President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Enhanced two-way investments, technological and defence cooperation, are likely to follow. Similar indications emerged when Prime Minister Modi stopped in Egypt on the way back from his highly successful visit to America recently.

India is also about to land on the moon. Chandrayaan I, from 2008, plunged a probe ‘impacter’ into the moon’s surface near its South Pole, and first made mention of water on the moon.

Chandrayaan 2, from September 2019, could not soft land due to some software malfunctions. It caused its lander, the 145 kg Vikram, (named after India’s space effort pioneer Vikram Sarabhai), to come close, but eventually crash land on the moon’s surface.

Many learnings based on what when wrong in 2019 have been incorporated, according to current ISRO Chairman Dr. Somanath S. The moon landing of the new improved successor pod, that will set down on the moon, is scheduled for August 28^th.

It will take over a month to get into the appropriate moon orbit on the 23^rd or 24^th of August. Once successfully completed, India will become only the 4^th country after America, Russia, and China to land on the moon’s surface. It is the first that will alight just 70 degrees away from the moon’s South Pole.  All the others have chosen to land nearer the Moon’s equator. On the poles, there is a greater likelihood of finding water molecules, and many other minerals.

The new improved Vikram will soft land by daylight, a moon-day being 14 earth days long. This will enable the solar powered rover to move around more, collect scientific data and samples via its instruments on board, and take pictures.

The night temperatures on the moon are an estimated minus 180-230 degrees centigrade. And though the batteries on the rover and lander have been designed to withstand such extreme conditions, they could still fail in time. 

India’s ISRO that has already sent a spacecraft to orbit Mars, will work with  America’s NASA to establish a space-station, and possibly a manned moon landing soon. Like the defence manufacturing establishment in India it is collaborating with the private sector and spawning new start-ups.

India’s journey towards becoming a developed country has well and truly begun, and most Western countries are now keen to treat it as an ally and strategic partner in the South-Asian, Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific theatre.

(1,451 words)

For week commencing July 17^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Build Mandirs, Win Assemblies, Break Opposition Parties, Implement UCC: What Will Work Best For General Elections 2024?

Building up to general elections between March and May 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes to the fray with quite an arsenal.

These are diverse and potent-the economy, defence preparedness and manufacturing, aatmanirbhar, industry, commerce, welfare including rural roads, electricity connections, water on tap, gas for cooking, subsidies sent directly to recipients, political savvy, infrastructure, agricultural modernisation and conveniences, minimum support prices, improving storage facilities, digital economies, stepped up international diplomacy, anti-corruption, promotion of Hindutva, inclusiveness under Sabka Vikas, reform and more reform, modernisation, connectivity-physically through Gati Shakti and digitally via 5G and satellite. The list is almost endless.

However, the reason why BJP came to power was its ideology, its championing of Hindutva as an alternative to the Nehruvian Idea of India. This cannot be lost sight of as it goes forth to win its third successive term.

The credibility and impact of constructing the grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya on the very spot believed to be the birthplace of Lord Ram, by early 2024, cannot probably be overstated.

The whole city of Ayodhya is also being transformed to suit, with new star hotels, conveniences, internal roads revamped, as well as excellent connectivity by road, train and air to reach the ancient place.  A very large number of pilgrims and tourists are expected and this will favourably impact the economy of the entire area.

It has taken over a century of struggle in recent times to come to this point. It is this very Ayodhya movement from the 1980s onwards that propelled the BJP into power.

The Hindutva effort is still ongoing - in the Gyanvapi Mosque/ Shiva Temple litigation at Varanasi. Its revered Shivling has now been found in the mosque’s wazoo area. This litigation follows on from the commissioning of the neighbouring grand Kashi-Vishwanath corridor, executed by the Modi government. A number of the ancient Ghats are now also being renovated. Varanasi or Kashi is receiving extensive connectivity, development and decongestion.

There is also ongoing litigation regarding the Shahi Idgah Mosque which has encroached on 13.23 acres of the land belonging to the Mathura Temple, built to mark the most holy Sri Krishna Janmabhoomi.

Freeing these two ancient temples in particular from the mosques that have been built since, have been long-standing pledges of the BJP. Progress here, in either or both cases, could provide fresh frisson to the Hindutva cause.  

Can all this occur before the general elections in 2024? If not, a High Court verdict, or even more ongoing favourable remarks from the lower Courts, should suffice for the election campaigns.

The BJP has also improved connectivity and infrastructure at the major pilgrimage centres unabated.

The Hindus believe these are all vital steps towards the establishment of India as a Hindu Rashtra, making it the only declared Hindu country in the world, after suitable amendments are made to the Constitution. They expect the BJP to accomplish this at the appropriate time.  

Hindu Rashtra does not mean intolerance for the second largest majority and other small minorities, nor any interference in their right to worship. This has been made clear by the early Hindutva ideologues. Hindu ruled India has always been tolerant and pluralistic since ancient times. This cannot be said of the Mughals and other Islamic rulers, and the Portuguese Catholics. The Protestant British used evangelicals and priests to convert many people, particularly the poor, but fortunately this was not at the point of a sword.

 In recent times, the demand to do away with the form of twisted secularism that has been used since independence to discriminate against the Hindu majority has grown insistent.

The Uniform Civil Code (UCC), likely to be implemented at last, is welcomed by the Hindu masses, as well as Muslim women, particularly from the 85% of Muslims that constitute the Pasmanda groups. This is borne out by their stepping forward to express their support. By the same token the reactionary bodies amongst the Muslim orders have reared up in protest, along with some of the opposition parties like the DMK.   

If the UCC is passed by parliament after discussion and debate, it will jolt the hold of the unelected All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB), elements from Jammu & Kashmir such as Mehbooba Mufti and her PDP Party, various fatwa issuing organisations like the Deoband Seminary and the Jama Masjid in Delhi, the Sayyids, and other higher caste Muslim men. 

Quite a few of the higher caste educated Muslim women however, chafing under discriminatory Shariah practices, have come out in support of the UCC.

 If the UCC is implemented, the BJP will have successfully driven a wedge through the middle of Muslim otherness. Since the second largest majority is now some 200 million strong, this will be a very significant development. Ironically, many Muslim countries including Pakistan, do not practice Shariah Law.

Other minorities should have fewer problems with the UCC, even less than political parties out to misrepresent the matter.

The Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana and Chhattisgarh coming up shortly will be hotly contested.

Opposition unity has just been dealt a severe blow in Maharashtra with Ajit Pawar splitting the NCP. Will he deliver at least 36-37 MLAs in his camp to meet the requirements of the anti-defection law? He says he has the support of over 40.  

With 48 seats to the Lok Sabha coming from Maharashtra, it is second only to Uttar Pradesh.

There is some consternation in the Shinde Shiv Sena over this development, but there are several unfilled ministerial berths that should reassure its MLAs. The chances of 16 members of the Shinde faction including Eknath Shinde himself being disqualified by the BJP Speaker under the anti-defection law is slight.  

This NCP split has put a big dent in the confidence of Opposition unity.

Assuming that the Maharashtra ‘triple engine sarkar’ moves ahead without derailment, it puts the spotlight next on Bihar.

Forever restless, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar reportedly wants to move back to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). He might use the recent corruption prosecution against Tejaswi Yadav, his deputy, as a pretext. He did it once before in 2017, so why not now?

Bihar sends 40 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Its assembly presently consists of 243 seats, with the Rashtriya Janata Dal(RJD) leading with 75 seats, the BJP with 74, the Janata Dal United (JDU) with 43, Congress with 19, and the Communist Party Of India Marxist Leninist (CPI(ML)) with 12. Other small parties together make up 20 seats.  

Union Home Minister Amit Shah and the BJP chief election strategist has stopped swearing that the doors of the BJP will forever be closed for Nitish Kumar. Splitting the ranks of the JDU/RJD coalition, could precipitate an election if Nitish Kumar cannot carry all of his flock. However, the JDU MLAs reportedly want to go back to the BJP alliance. If all goes well, it is expected to provide a combined total of 117, tantalisingly close to the half way mark of 137. This would, of course cast another body blow to opposition unity.

Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka have their long festering fault lines too. In Karnataka, a 28 Lok Sabha MPs state, JD Kumaraswamy has already hinted at his willingness to ally with the BJP. What will be the stance of Congress’ DK Sivakumar and his followers?

 There is widely held perception that the NDA is most likely to win in 2024. However, others, mostly the ones left out, say that the voter does not like this hook or by crook method of toppling governments, and won’t vote for the BJP/NDA as a consequence. There is also rising concern that a number of tainted politicians facing corruption charges are being absorbed. The BJP is, and will be taking a calculated risk.

Elsewhere, The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) controlled by the Badal family, has indicated it wants to return to the NDA. The AAP, in power in Punjab is facing increasing headwinds. SAD senses it could make a comeback.

Telangana may not fall into the grasp of the BJP by itself this December when the state goes to the polls, but the BJP tally should improve sharply. If however, there is an alliance with the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), as is being alleged by Congress, they could form a winning coalition.

Andhra Pradesh also wants early elections at the same time as Telangana.

There is healthy growth in the economy. At nearly 7 % in GDP,  it is the fastest growth in any major economy, and there are substantial foreign exchange reserves approaching $ 600 billion.  

The unwieldy opposition caravan cannot match all this dynamism in the near term, if at all. This even if they had any ideas beyond old fashioned socialist freebies with no regard for revenue generation to pay for them. However, they are harping on price rise and unemployment with some justification.

All in all, the months leading up to general elections in 2024 will see heightened political activity, with each side trying to turn the tables on the other.

(1,507 words)

For week starting July 10^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The National Green Tribunal Is Ineffective In Everything Except Bullying The Middle Class In The NCR Over Their Cars

A 2010 UPA era law put the latest cat amongst the pigeons. Was it influenced by the infamous National Advisory Council (NAC), Congress Chairperson Sonia Gandhi’s arch-leftist creation? But laws in India are a dime a dozen. After they are made however, everyone seems to take a very long rest.

Environmental issues have been concerning the powers-that-be from years before, illustrated by the enactment of The Environment (Protection) Act 1986.

This one enabled the central government to protect and improve the environment, control and reduce pollution and prohibit or restrict the setting up or operation of an industrial facility on environmental grounds.

 It was widely perceived to have been enacted in response to the Bhopal Gas Leak. The government of Rajiv Gandhi sought meagre compensation from  Union Carbide for the killed and maimed, but did frame this law.

There were five more legislations before 2010. The Public Liability Insurance Act and Rules 1991, amended 1992. The National Environmental Tribunal Act, 1995, amended in 2010. The National Environment Appellate Authority Act 1997. The Biomedical Waste (Management and Handling) Rules 1998.

The National Green Tribunal (NGT) was set up with the lofty objectives of conserving forests, protecting the environment, the nation’s natural resources, animal life, reducing pollution on land, water, and  to promote clean air.

 It has since failed in all these objectives. This was mainly because its orders were not obeyed. Most of them are either appealed in the Supreme Court, which effectively freezes action till the court decides, or stayed by one or the other of the high courts in the affected state.

The NGT has gradually learned it does better with individuals and corporate targets in the private sector. It was intended to take some of the load off the Supreme Court (SC), but has instead become just another layer in the legal system.

The forest timber mafias still operate with impunity, as do the poachers. The rivers continue to be polluted. Forest cover keeps on being reduced by encroachment. Mountain areas suffer more landslides due to felling of trees, rampant construction, and road widening. Clean air is a relative matter.

The NGT order to completely ban open burning of waste on land has failed utterly, with miles of paddy stubble burning every winter in three states, let alone at rubbish dumps the size of mountains in the Delhi area.

In the campaign of 2013 -14, prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi often spoke of the ‘Jayanthi Tax’, in reference to UPA Environment Minister Jayanti Natarajan’s action of blocking several projects in Gujarat and all the mining in Goa. The NGT nurtured quite a tribe of activists in Goa that put a lot of miners out of work for years and caused loss of revenue to the Government of Goa.. The NGT provided the objections.

Certainly, her predecessor in the job, Jayaram Ramesh, was equally obstructionist. You couldn’t build a highway near a forest in his time.  

But was there really the hefty alleged payoffs before things would be cleared? The CBI found large amounts of unaccounted cash, as much as Rs. 25 crores of it. There are some ‘Birla Diaries’ with the Income Tax authorities with entries that suggest payola. However, Natarajan stoutly denied any wrongdoing. She was removed from her ministerial job nevertheless, and mounted a scathing attack against Rahul Gandhi thereafter.

The negative/positive effect of the NGT can be assessed from its so-called successes. It joined the queue to stop the establishment of the 12MTPA capacity steel plant valued at an investment of $12 billion, as estimated in 2005 by South Korean giant POSCO.

POSCO had the audacity to sign an MoU with the Government of Odisha. It is a wonder foreign investment still comes to India, given our fondness for bureaucratic and legal red tape, and some would say, hatred of commercial progress.

There were initial objections raised after a law, The Scheduled Tribes and other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006, came into being that did not exempt the POSCO steel mine endeavour.

There were 8 tribal villages affected, of which seven gradually saw the merits in allowing the plant to come up.  One held out against the project. The Communists got involved to prevent the project as well. Various committees were set up and submitted lengthy reports. The Supreme Court was in favour of letting the project come up.

In 2011, the MoU expired, and was in the process of being renewed with additional conditions in favour of the tribals, in 2012. This never happened, as POSCO’s interest waned. It tried to launch another steel factory, almost half the size, in Karnataka instead, but this too floundered at the land acquisition stage. The original effort was a project badly needed by the Odisha economy, but Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik though better than using his political capital to see it through.

The NGT, recently come on the scene, put a stop to it as well. It was in order to protect the local tribals and forest dwellers who lived at the project site area from being relocated. The matter was also politicised by Congress leader Rahul Gandhi going to the POSCO site to make common cause. The UPA was in power at the centre.

In Tamil Nadu’s Tuticorin, the UK based Vedanta Group was running Sterlite Industries, a copper smelter plant working since 1995-96 producing about 4 tonnes of copper per annum. In March 2013, after a gas leak from the plant, and allegations of pollution, the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board in concert with the NGT, shut down the plant, even though nobody was killed.

Tamil Nadu, known for its excellent industrial relations, made a political exception this time, with the newly elected Stalin after the death of his father, and the DMK cadres, demonstrating to shut down the Sterlite Plant. This occasioned the complete import of India’s copper needs, ever since, from China instead.

More recently in 2023, the NGT has slapped a penalty of Rs. 10 crores on the Kerala government for its failure to check pollution of the Vembanad and Ashtamudi lakes listed as ecologically sensitive wetlands. It asked the Government of Rajasthan to close down the salt pans in the Sambhar Salt Lake that are near the wetlands in 2016. This battle over the wetlands carries on to this day in other parts as well.

 The NGT has been asking various states such as Bihar (deposit Rs. 4,000 crores in a ring-fenced account for the purpose), Uttarakhand, and Maharashtra ( deposit Rs. 12,000 crores in an escrow account), to adopt better waste management practices.  In 2022 it has fined West Bengal Rs. 3,500 crores for failing to effectively manage its solid and liquid waste.

The NGT has not even been able to completely stop single use plastics under 50 microns per its order, let alone the sand mafia, or illegal stone quarrying by blowing up mountain rocks with dynamite generating clouds of dust.

There is no clean Ganga yet after 12 plus years of its existence. There is an effort to clean up the Ulhas River in Maharashtra, again with little result via sewage treatment plants. And the Yamuna in Delhi, continues to be a malodorous drain. The NGT has issued stern notices to the Delhi Jal Board but the requisite sewage treatment plants have not come up. States upstream have also been given NGT notices but to little actual avail.

The NGT is headquartered in New Delhi, and headed by a retired Supreme Court judge. It also sits in Bhopal, Pune, Kolkata and Chennai. The NDA has resisted its encyclicals throughout its tenure, and now controls it somewhat, by wresting the appointment of its members from the control of the Supreme Court.

The NGT has suo moto powers as per the Supreme Court in 2021. This means, the NGT can take up issues on its own, even if no one comes knocking on its doors. One can protest an NGT order by taking the matter to the Supreme Court, but only during a narrow window of opportunity of some 60 days.

The  NGT’s claim to fame is in the banning of 10 year-old diesel cars in the NCR, with no reference to their mileage, maintenance or ownership. Even cars registered in other states outside the NCR, cannot ply within its limits without risking being confiscated, fined, or both.

The governments in the NCR don’t have any problem with complying with the 2015 order. They don’t pay for their vehicles, the taxpayer does. Still, they drag their feet till replacements are furnished.

And it is likewise for 15 year-old petrol cars. And the same black law was imposed on all 10 year-old diesel cars in six cities in Kerala. However, in Kerala, its high court promptly stayed the NGT order. The NCR has not been so lucky.

The 2015 order in the NCR was indeed challenged, but the SC upheld it without qualification. The order is a source of great muscularity on the NGT’s part. But it is a source of general discontent from middle-class owners of private vehicles.

Recently the TV News Channel Mirror Now took on a campaign to ask the Delhi Police not to seize and remove the old cars, without notice to their owners. The car registrations, even if they have further years to run, are cancelled. An arbitrary scrap value is allegedly paid in due course.

The slogan used by the TV channel is My Old Car Is Not Bekaar. They are picked up forcibly by privately contracted cranes, and sent forthwith to the scrapyard. And there, such cars are piled high, the visuals show, as capacity to turn them into scrap is highly limited, primitive, and yes, severely polluting.

The demand from car owners is for a review of the NGT order. One suggestion is based on the fact that many private cars are lightly used. Private car users are saying many of their cars have barely 50,000 Km on the odometer after 10/15 years of use. They are well-maintained and can pass any fitness test. It is inter-state/city taxis, lorries, buses, three-wheeler cargo carriers and the like, with perhaps 200,000 km done in the same period that should be looked at for their pollution potential.

Cars can indeed be sold outside of the NCR before the 10/15 year deadline. But to force this, means private owners are not only deprived of perfectly good vehicles, but receive meagre sale prices.

This high-handed ruling without any nuance also causes hardship to many, including elderly and retired owners who are hard-pressed or unable to buy new cars at ever rising prices. To point them towards public transport is both insensitive and impractical.

Both the NGT and the SC have, till now, refused to react to this public demand, even after more than seven years of public hardship. But neither have the politicians from the Delhi government or the Centre got involved to provide some relief.

It is as if they are promoting new car sales, including those of the electric cars with their Chinese lithium batteries, in concert with the automobile dealers.

The odd thing is, only three countries have such a tribunal- Australia, New Zealand and India.

 

(1,865 words)

For week starting 3^rd July, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

An Unprecedented Upgrade Of Indo-US Relations During Prime Minister Modi’s State Visit to The US Signals A Great Leap Forward in High-Technology, Trade, & Defence Manufacturing Agreements

There is a major upgrade in the Indo-American relationship. Not only did Prime Minister Modi’s State Visit yield a cornucopia of high technology, trade, joint venture and defence manufacturing benefits, but it is on a scale such that the whole world will have to recalibrate how it considers India going forward.

India has long been constrained to be at the top or second place when it comes to the purchase of foreign armaments involving billions of dollars.However, because of a strong Aatmanirbhar push lately, the picture is beginning to change.

Indian defence production values were in excess of Rs. 1 lakh crores for the first time in fiscal 2022, up from Rs.95,000 crores in fiscal 2021 and just Rs. 54,951 five years ago. India is now targeting Rs. 1,75,000 crores in indigenous defence production by fiscal 2024.

The technology transfer and joint venture format it now pushes vigorously should greatly enhance the indigenous defence manufacturing effort. India has also developed a defence equipment export target of $ 5 billion by 2025, up from $ 1.5 billion achieved in fiscal 2022.

This process is now starting to form a pattern.  The accountants will have to work out the savings against fully-built imports. 

On the 8^th of June 2023, after interminable negotiations, India’s Government owned Mazagon Docks (MDL) and Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) signed an MoU and became front runners (in competition with the Spanish and the South Koreans), to submit a joint bid.

It is for an over Rs. 42,000 crore project to build six diesel-electric submarines. The German firm will provide the engineering, design, and consultancy support for the joint venture instead of selling much more expensive fully built submarines from German dockyards. The competition is also agreeable to collaborate, and this may have forced the German hand. These submarines for the Indian Navy are to have operation AIP which extends the underwater endurance and makes conventional submarines as good as they get at present India’s L&T will possibly make the AIP componentry for this.

How much of the Rs. 42,000 crores will fall to the Indian manufacturing effort?

The Indian submarine fleet is depleted, and has 10 old submarines - six Russian Kilo class, and four German HDW, plus six new Scorpene class submarines, built in collaboration with the French for Rs. 23,000 crores ( again, how much did we save by this?), and two nuclear submarines built in collaboration with the Russians (ditto). We have two aircraft carriers. One is a retired British carrier retrofitted in Russia at great expense, cost overruns and immense delays and the other built in India, albeit with Russian help but at target prices and dates. India now can make another and yet another 45,000 ton aircraft carrier by itself if need be.

But the days of aircraft carriers may be coming to an end, overtaken by UAV and drone technology, missiles, even nuclear submarines.

The Chinese, by way of contrast have over 50 diesel-electric submarines, and 10 nuclear ones. It is also building 8 diesel electric Yuan class submarines for Pakistan.

The fact that we are buying 31 armed Predator drones now help us keep track of the Chinese ships and submarines in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

There is now unprecedented progress on military manufacturing in collaboration with the US. The agreements have come thick and fast during this visit between 21-24^th June 2023.

It is now down to equally dynamic implementation on both sides before the negative lobbies slow it down to a snail’s pace even if they can’t actually scrap it.

It is a game-changer because the US has decided to get off the fence with regard to military cooperation with India, despite Indian reluctance to become a formal US ally in the NATO Plus mould.

The handing over the GE F414 technology could mean two bites of the cherry. First over 350 to 500 engines for the Tejas MK2 and the AMCA MK1, over the next decade or more. And perhaps, who knows, the shifting of the F/A-18 Super Hornet Assembly line that uses the GE F414, alongside more than 60,000 of the engines exported elsewhere, to a much less expensive country like India. This could mean sales to India for early requirements such as those urgently needed for our aircraft carriers, and then US exports of upgraded versions of this venerable old plane, from the assembly line in India. A lot, of course depends on the latest avionics and the firepower the planes are equipped with.

The imminent induction of GE-F414INS6 turbofan fighter engines for the Tejas MK2, in the 98 KiloNewton thrust class is now a done deal, but for some ratification by the US Congress. The MoU agreement was signed on 22^nd June between GE and HAL. The engines, of which eight are already in India for the Tejas MK2 prototypes, will certainly speed up India’s under-production medium combat aircraft, the Tejas MK2. These engines are tried and tested, and currently power both the American F/A-18 Super Hornets, upgraded already from the F-16s, and Swedish Gripen fighters. GE has already supplied the less powerful 75  GE-404 engines for the Tejas MK1A, and another 99 are on order.

Only four countries design and manufacture commercial and military jet engines, including hypersonic and supersonic ones for the latter. The Four countries are - The US- via General Electric (GE) and Pratt & Whitney (P&W), Britain- via Rolls Royce, France- through Safran, and Russia- via Klimov, NPO Saturn and Aviadvigatel. The reliability of the Russian engines are not as good as the rest and of late there were complaints on the P&W commercial aircraft engines by GoAir.

The state-of-the-art 31 armed MQ 9B Sea Guardian/Reaper/Predator drones- they go by several names, with Hellfire missiles and guided laser bombs capable of flying and loitering at 40,00O feet are to be bought for $3.5 billion. They have over-the-horizon surveillance and attack capability and have delivered great results in the Afghanistan theatre against the Taliban. With MRO facilities to be set up in India, DRDO should likewise gain the experience to build such drones in the future and benefit their own drone manufacturing programme.

15 of the Predators are intended for the Indian Navy facing a challenge from increasing Chinese activity in the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Eight each are for the Army and IAF. All will be under the new tri-services commands.

These spectacularly capable drones will hugely upgrade India’s long-range intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and because they are armed, the strike missions when called for, along the LaC, LoC and elsewhere.

India currently has just two of these for naval reconnaissance only, on lease from America since 2020. Some 60% of the new Predator parts are to be manufactured by the Kalyani Group.

The American towed 155 mm Howitzers already in use in India, the M777, are on offer to be upgraded with precision guided long range ammunition. India already has 145 of these, of which 120 were made by Mahindra Defence Systems in a business arrangement with America’s BAE Systems. These lighter howitzers can be taken to mountain areas by helicopter if need be.

The Americans have also offered their Stryker eight into eight wheeled drive V-hull armoured infantry vehicle that saw action in Afghanistan. It is armed with a 30mm cannon and 105 mm mobile gun. India will be interested, again, if it comes with transfer of technology and local manufacture clauses.

 An American $ 2.7 billion chip unit from Micron is about to be established in India, probably in Gujarat.  In addition, Applied Materials will invest 4$400 million to build a collaborative engineering centre in Bengaluru to develop and commercialise technology for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.

Boeing, reacting to large commercial aircraft orders from India will also set up a $ 100 million pilot training centre. Google plans to invest $ 10 billion in India’s digitisation fund with a new Global Fintech Centre in GIFT City, Gujarat.

There will be more in the semiconductor field, an urgent strategic area for both India and America. A pact to also collaborate on quantum computing and artificial intelligence is being signed.

Collaboration on hypersonic missiles with the US is also on the cards. There will be a joint manned mission to the moon by 2025, between ISRO and NASA and other Space cooperation. There are pacts on communications inclusive of 5G and 6G, and a new a radio protocol.

The 4 lakh odd Indian people  on H-1B visas will have them renewed in America without their having to leave and then re-enter the country in future. America will open new consulates at Ahmedabad and Bengaluru, and India will open a new consulate in Seattle.

The list goes on, now that four ‘foundational agreements’ signed over the last few years have got the legal requirements out of the way, with two more on the anvil to eliminate future impedimenta.

India has also signed the new-fangled Global Mineral Alliance to secure access to the world’s minerals without Chinese hegemony creating monopolies despite their nearly 90% hold on present supplies. But there are several other untapped and partially exploited sources. India may also seek US know-how to extract its new finds of Lithium in Jammu and other Rare Earths it is rich in, despite importing all its requirements of both at present.

America has already sold $ 21 billion in defence equipment over the last 15 years, but this, now, is the great leap forward to paraphrase Chairman Mao.  Trade with India, currently at $ 195 billion, is sought to be increased to $ 500 billion to offset some of the difficulties of still having a trade of $ 700 billion with China, despite increasing prickliness and a general lack of trust between the two.

Another fighter engine, larger, more powerful still, in the 110 KiloNewton thrust class, is expected to come from another joint venture with GE next, for India’s forthcoming 5^th generation  Advance Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), for its MK2 version stealth fighter.

Prime Minister Modi’s US visit, after exchange of gifts including a laboratory grown 7.5 carat ‘green’ diamond, using solar power for energy, and exports of $1.67 billion of such diamonds, mostly to the US. There was a 19 gun salute, 5,000 Indian-Americans invited to assemble on the White House Lawns, bilateral meetings, a private dinner in the White House, another with the Vice President and the Secretary of State, a State Dinner in which India’s thrust on Millets was honoured, an address to the Joint Houses,meetings with the giant corporation heads of IT, and of course,  the lietmotif mega diaspora event.

Before getting into the government-to-government business in Washington, on the very first day of the visit, Prime Minister Modi met with several business heads in New York, including the colourful Elon Musk.

This might mean a prestigious Tesla plant in India for the famous high-end electric cars. Musk also spoke of his satellite-based internet system, Starlink that has proved itself very useful in the Ukraine War.

Prime Minister Modi also celebrated the 9^th International Yoga Day on the lawns of the UN in New York. This, with diplomats from 135 countries, and others, such as Hollywood actor and pro-Tibet activist, the 73 year-old Richard Gere.  

The usual human rights lectures and homilies of gratuitous advice from the American establishment, prompted by anti-India lobbies, were put on hold this time. Although some members of the Press, and, notably, former President Obama, did raise the usual propaganda-based questions.

However, the American National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, said, very diplomatically, each country has its own challenges to deal with, and admitted America has its own human rights challenges too.

The US State Visit ended after a final diaspora event at the Ronald Reagan Centre in Washington.

 It was followed by a short state visit to Egypt, the first by an Indian prime minister on a state visit, since 1997. This was on the 24^th-25^th  June.

In Egypt, Prime Minister Modi visited a venerable Shia mosque, the 11^th century Hakim Mosque, from the Fatimid Dynasty, traced as the origin of the Indian Dawoodi Bohra Community. The mosque has been gradually restored by the Bohra community right from the 1970s.  He also visited the Heliopolis Memorial to 3,799 fallen Indian soldiers in WWI.

This Egypt visit is reciprocal, after President Sisi came to New Delhi as Chief Guest for the Republic Day functions in January 2023. It holds great promise, because Egypt wants to buy and joint venture on a slew of military equipment, including establishing an assembly line with India’s HAL for Tejas aircraft.  

Indian defence delegations have visited India some 30 times in the last two years, and the Egyptians have also come to India some 7 times. Joint military exercises have been conducted for the first time. Trade with Egypt has been modest, but shows great potential for both sides. Egypt is a guest country in the ongoing G-20 activities in India under India’s 2023 Chairmanship.

On its part, Egypt has offered India space at the Suez Canal SEZ to boost Indian overseas trade.

This Egypt visit comes in the backdrop of a MoU just signed between India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and Argentina’s Fabrica Argentina de Aviones (FAdeA)  at the Paris Air Show. It lays out an intent to collaborate in the aerospace sector, to set up first a maintenance, repair and overhaul facility (MRO). Argentina has shown interest in buying 15 of the Tejas MK1A and other aircraft on the HAL platform. This, while Argentina is also considering the Chinese JF-17.

 

(2,268 words)

For Week starting 26^th June, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Great Dictator Objects But Don’t They Always?

Charlie Chaplin turned out a hilarious lampoon of Adolf Hitler, with an anti-war satire and black comedy, as a Black and White (B&W) film, his very first using sound. It was released in America on 31^st October 1940, before it joined WWII on the side of the Allies, but after WWII had been going already for a year.

Chaplin wrote, scored, produced, directed, and starred in it. Chaplin played both a poor Jewish barber and former soldier, living in a Ghetto, as well as the Great Dictator. The Dictator harangued, and the little Jewish barber mostly listened. The Great Dictator was Chaplin’s most commercially successful film, and was nominated for five Academy Awards.  The famous film still resonates, and was recognised later, as one of the most significant of the century.

 Adolf Hitler became Chancellor of Germany and absolute ruler on his climb to power. But soon, he set about repurposing his image. He became Der Fuhrer, or Father (of the nation). He encouraged all in the Nazi Party or in his opinion, ‘patriots’, to see him as such. 

US President Joe Biden has a method to his veering off his foreign office script. He has done it often enough with regard to China to not dismiss it as inadvertent gaffes.

American bipartisan delegations, including Congressmen, Senators, businessmen, and even the earlier Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, without reference to China, much to its annoyance.

In addition, and in the face of threatening Chinese military drills in the vicinity of Taiwan, and finger-wagging warnings to America, Biden persisted in repeatedly sending mixed messages.

For the third time, for example, in November 2021, just a day after a virtual summit with President Xi Jinping, Biden said Taiwan was independent, contradicting official US policy.

He repeated it, when asked by reporters, that Taiwan was independent and free to make its own decisions. He also said America would come to Taiwan’s defence if it were to be attacked by China.

The American foreign policy officials then routinely scurry around to reiterate there has been no change, and indeed it did accept China’s ‘One China’ Policy. However, it was obliged to attend to Taiwan’s security concerns. This charade goes on, with now, the European powers also sending representatives to Taiwan on visits without informing Beijing. All this no doubt raises Xi Jinping’s blood pressure. He is not used to being contradicted at all in the vastness of China, and no doubt wishes that the world too should recognise the greatness of his infallible leadership.

Taiwan, of course, makes almost all of the world’s high-end semiconductor chips, and until new value chains can be established, (not an easy task), it is of crucial strategic importance to America. And also to the rest of the world, in which very little works today without electronic chips.

The Biden administration has already banned Red Chinese access to the highest level of semiconductor chips, so that they can’t be used by China to purpose high-technology weapons against America.

 Biden, it would appear, does his deviating from the script to needle Xi Jinping. And certainly not because he is senile or suffering from dementia, as has been suggested by some who like to play a sympathetic hand on China.

He has done it again by calling President Xi Jinping a ‘dictator’ just a day after Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Beijing. Blinken who went to China after five years, after a postponement or two, dragging his feet perhaps, was given a frosty reception by the Foreign Minister, the foreign policy chief above him, and Xi Jinping himself.

While China agreed to keep lines of communication open to avoid misunderstandings, it did not agree to a Blinken request for direct military-to-military communications. A telling picture showed Blinken in the middle of a conference table and Xi Jinping far away at another end of the table.

This crass attempt at highhandedness and to bully America, Chinese style, did not go down well with the No.1 economic and military power in the world. From the American point of view, China stands absolutely no chance of replacing it as the most influential power in the world.

Soon after, President Joe Biden called Xi Jinping a dictator at a fund raiser for wealthy donors for his re-election campaign, and refused to retract the statement when asked to clarify by reporters. He said it was ‘just not something I’m going to change very much’.

This despite a strongly written protest by the Chinese Ambassador to Washington, and criticism from other Chinese foreign ministry officials who called the remark ‘extremely absurd’ and ‘irresponsible’.

Xi Jinping, like other dictators, is sensitive to being called out, called names, or being made fun of.

Earlier some wags on social media likened him to Winnie the Pooh, the beloved Bear, because he looks remarkably like that character as drawn. Xi reacted  nothing like the gentle Winnie might have. He promptly banned everything about Winnie the Pooh in China. Dissidents of any kind are not tolerated and no negative reportage is allowed in China.

But Biden was not joking when he called Xi a dictator in his calculated manner. He thought it would have little effect on prospects of meeting Xi face-to-face in the future. They are likely to meet in New Delhi for the G 20 Summit Heads-of-State/Government in October 2023 for example.

Biden added ‘China has real economic difficulties,’ now, meaning post Covid. There is no need to worry about China he said, as if it was no threat to America at all.  It also implied that there is much wrong with the opaque Chinese financial system that the US administration knew about.

Biden also claimed Xi Jinping did not even know about the spy balloon over America that he had ordered to be shot down, suggesting Xi Jinping was out-of-touch.

The more muscular tone with regard to Xi Jinping and China may be part of election mode and largely aimed at his domestic audience. Biden is a very experienced politician, and does not want to appear soft on China with an eye on his Republican rivals.

Relations with China cannot be wished away by the US as trade stands, even now, at $ 700 billion between the two countries. There is irritation and lack of the old trust on both sides, but also much co-dependency. That is perhaps why the US is very keen to see Indo-US trade, currently at $ 195 billion, to rise to $ 500 billion as soon as possible. It is likely that several dependencies on China could be thereby reduced.  The progress on QUAD and AUKUS as well as the ramping up of the Indo-US relationship so spectacularly is rankling to Beijing.

 However, as Steve Tsang Director of the China Institute at London University School of Oriental and African Studies said, ‘My sense is that Xi may not want to overreact and put the relationship back on ice again’.

Meanwhile Biden in California, extending the mockery, said  Xi ‘wants a relationship again’.

The Republican Party reaction from Mark Rubio was approving of Xi Jinping being called a dictator. It’s true, he can give himself as many terms as he wants said Rubio. In March 2023, Xi secured a precedent breaking third-term as president, making Xi Jinping the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.

 

(1,224 words)

June 23^rd 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

India Target Of USD 5 Billion In Arms Exports Will Be Led By Brahmos Missiles

The BrahMos is currently the world’s fastest Ramjet powered supersonic cruise missile, at speeds up to Mach 4, and pin-point accuracy on target. It is made in a joint venture company at BrahMos Aerospace that is 25 years old.

It is tested, tried and widely inducted in the Indian Armed Forces for use in land, sea-including both ships and submarines, air, for a range of up to 500 km, and ability to fly 49,000 feet in the sky, or 15 miles up, as well as skim the sea at just 3 or 4 metres.

It is very difficult to intercept because of its speed. New generation BrahMos now being tested, will be operationalised soon for ranges of 600 km and 800 km and finally, 1,500 km at higher speeds of Mach 7-8. It carries a conventional semi-armour piercing warhead.

‘From about $ 1.5 billion in 2020-2021, India targets to export $5 billion worth of military hardware by 2025,’ said Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the 14th Aero India in Bengaluru in February 2023.

The S1.5 billion already achieved is composed of exports to 80 countries. The US is a prominent customer for parts of platforms for the F16 fighter jets, Chinook and Apache helicopters. Armenia bought the Pinaka Multi Barrel Rocket Launchers, artillery guns, and a range of ammunition. Philippines, Mauritius and Ecuador bought Dhruv helicopters.

On the cards are additional orders for at least $ 1,100 million for the BrahMos missiles from the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia. This will be a good boost to India’s ‘Act East’ policy enunciated by the Modi government.

India has long and consistently been the top importer of armaments in the world in value terms, and continues to import billions of dollars-worth even today. This, while it ramps up its Aatmanirbhar defence manufacturing programme out of increasing concern for strategic autonomy, and the high cost of imported armaments that hold no secrets for our enemies. Next to crude oil and gas, armaments account for India’s biggest import bill.

The indigenous and joint-venture based manufacturing programme now accounts for 68% of all the items on the defence purchase list, over 300 items, with more being added.

Government owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) being expanded to manufacture more Tejas aircraft and India made helicopters, and the key Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), now also making light tanks for use in Ladakh and along the LAC, are leading the charge. Both were languishing and moribund before the Modi government took over as the preference was to import armaments with its pay off in terms of lucrative commissions. 

 Now the list of active players is growing with several government owned ordnance factories reorganised to put paid to ammunition shortages, government owned BEML, various shipyards, in both the public and private sector, other defence manufacturing programmes in private sector Tata, Mahindra, L&T, Kalyani, and Start Ups working on drones, radar, and bits of new technology.

India’s missile making programme including other platforms like the Akash and Astra, has been particularly successful. BrahMos Aerospace, a 50.5-49.5 percent joint venture between India’s DRDO and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyeniya, has become internationally famous, and is beginning to notch up significant buying interest from multiple countries.

Currently, 76% in terms of content of the BrahMos missiles are India-manufactured, and this is likely to increase to 85% as Indian-made seekers and boosters are added. The present BrahMos DG Rane thinks it will become 100% Indian-made within three years or 2026. BrahMos R&D is carried out at its unit in New Delhi.

BrahMos was tested with an India-made seeker for the first time in in March 2018, and tested with an Indian propulsion system, airframe and power supply in September 2019.

We are already responding to most of the requirements from Indian Armed Forces, such as for lighter air missiles, longer ranges, more speed, via BrahMos design studios, with the manufacturing executed, almost exclusively in India. This has become a crucial factor both for speed of production, capacity enhancement, and keeping up with domestic and foreign demand.

Therefore, the chances of Russia preventing or slowing further development or sales in export for any reason are slight going forward. With the toll taken by the Ukraine War on the Russian armaments industry, it is just as well, though Russia is probably happy with its share of the India-based and export profits. It could, however, come under Chinese pressure in the near future. One option then could be a buy-out of the Russian share of 49.5% by India. However this might be diplomatically difficult and very expensive.

Alternatively, a similar set of missiles and its improved variants, rebranded and made in separate facilities, made 100% in India, would do away with the pitfalls of a joint venture. Our old Russian friends have made some recent changes in diplomatic policy. Profits, in the event, would also not have to be shared. Confidentiality would improve. Domestic consumption by Indian Armed Forces would come cheaper, and account for the bulk of BrahMos sales. And most importantly, Chinese pressure would no longer be a factor.

The growing Russia-China Axis, and Pakistan being added to the mix by Russia presumably under Chinese pressure, is a distinct worry. That there is a growing security risk with China’s penchant for reverse engineering other people’s armaments, with possible Russian help, is another problem.

Fortunately, India has other joint development options now. There is an American offer on the table, in addition to that of the Russians, to help develop urgently needed hypersonic missiles in joint venture. 

The name BrahMos comes from the Brahmaputra in India and the Moskva in Russia. The unit cost for the BrahMos is $3.5 million and for the BrahMos ER ( extended range) is $ 4.85 million. Cost competitiveness and reliability, along with flexible design options will increasingly become the hallmark of Indian arms exports.

A 300 km range variant is offered for export and has already been sold to the Philippines for $375 million. The missiles are under production and will be delivered by the end of 2023. Personnel from the Phillipines are currently being trained in their use. The Philippines is considering a further follow-on order for $ 300 million. These are for their shore-based anti-ship missile batteries.

Talks are ongoing with a dozen interested countries presently. Indonesia is likely to order $200 million worth by the end of 2023, of the Ship-borne missiles to be fitted on their warships. Other South East Asian navies in Thailand, Vietnam (looking to buy $625 million worth), Singapore, Malaysia and Myanmar, have expressed interest along with others, such as the UAE.

Meanwhile BrahMos Aerospace DG Atul Dinkar Rane recently said that technology bricks are being developed in-house for BrahMos hypersonic precision guided missiles to fly at Mach 7-8.

The BrahMos order book is presently at $ 6 billion, mostly from the Indian Armed Forces.

The missile industrial consortium that supports BrahMos has over 200 Indian defence firms from public and private sectors that design, develop and deliver critical components and sub-systems for one of the world’s fastest precision guided weapons.

The BrahMos unit at Nagpur makes the missiles for use in the air. It is currently working on a new generation (NG) missile that will be 50% lighter than the present 3,000 kg, and is expected to go into production in 2025-26. A new facility on 200 acres is coming up for the NG in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh.

Flight trials for the NG are expected to start by the end of 2024. Lighter air BrahMos missiles will mean more of them can be carried by fighter aircraft. The present heavier missile can only be carried on the Su-30 aircraft, after modifications both in the missile and the aircraft.

Similar moves to carry them on other military aircraft need extensive modifications at its original weight of 3,000 kg. and this is proving impractical. The missile weight was whittled down to 2,550 kg but it is still too heavy, ideally speaking.  With the NG at about 1,500 kg., there are plans to fit one on the Tejas MK1 light combat aircraft (LCA) fighters with GE 404 engines. And perhaps two NG on the Tejas MK2 medium weight fighters with GE 414 engines. And certainly two on the heavier Sukhoi 30 and Rafale twin engine fighters. These BrahMos missiles will be complemented by a pair of the air-to-air 72 km range India made Astra missiles, to complete the suite.

 Squadrons of the Tejas MK1 are slated to replace the Soviet era MIG 21s and MIG 29s. The Tejas MK2 are expected to replace the ageing French Mirage fighters in the IAF line up. The AMCA stealth fighters are still in development, but may well get a boost from further cooperation with the Americans.

The Naval BrahMos has already been fitted on 10 Indian Navy ships with orders from 13 more ships. The eventual aim is to have BrahMos missiles on every Indian Navy ship and submarine. The Defence Ministry has approved a proposal for the purchase of 200 extended range BrahMos missiles for the Navy’s frontline warships.

 Componentry is manufactured, in part, at the BrahMos facility at Trivandrum. The integration complex is located at Hyderabad. Another production centre is at Thiruvananthapuram. A new facility is being developed at Pilani. A 200 acre campus for the NG is coming up at Lucknow.

India aspires to be a reliable ‘defence partner’ from its earlier position of being a big buyer. India will collaborate in the making of the American GE 414 engines for the Tejas MK 2 fighter aircraft in India. These are much faster, with greater thrust, than the earlier fully bought-out GE 404 engines used for the Tejas MK1. 

There is also a recent announcement that the American Lockheed Corporation and  Tata will make the C-130JSuper Hercules military transport aircraft in India.

India is also negotiating hard for the technology transfer in the imminent purchase of 31 armed Predator drones for $ 3.5 billion from the US. It also has its own armed drone project even as it has just two Predator drones on lease from America.

Airbus C295 military transport aircraft are already ordered on an imported basis, and will also be India-made shortly to make this country the biggest operator of this transport aircraft in the world.

Noting all this coming thick and fast, the Western press, such as the normally derogatory Economist of the UK, is calling India ‘America’s new best friend’ prior to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US between 21-24^th June 2023. It represents India, not as a lumbering elephant as before, but a majestic Royal Bengal Tiger.

By 2025, BrahMos might not have the order book for the complete $ 5 billion export armament target, but it will certainly be a leading component of it, particularly as new generation longer range and faster versions are also offered in their export variants.

The TejasMK2 with the GE 414 engine armed with Brahmos NG and Astra missiles, will offer an attractive proposition for export. The Dhruv and Light Combat helicopter with their ability to fly higher than all other combat helicopters with a full suite of armaments will also find buyers abroad.

(1863 words)

June 15^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee