Warm Bhutan India Ties Reinforced By Modi Visit

Strategically located but land-locked, Bhutan is bordered by both India and China, with the latter regularly negotiating land concessions from the tiny kingdom.

India has traditionally been a  non-predatory support to the kingdom with regular concessionary loans, electricity purchases, and a defence protection pact with it. India and Bhutan also have long-standing cultural ties, and at present has loaned it some sacred  Piprahwa relics of Lord Buddha for a 10 day period during a special Peace Prayer.

Bhutan has always favoured its autonomy and unique ways, including emphasis on its world famous ‘Gross Domestic Happiness’.

 In this current two-day visit, not postponed, despite an Islamic terror attack in New Delhi’s Red Fort area by JeM and ADuG inspired operatives, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India and King Jigme Khesar Wangchuk, the fourth Druk Gyalpo, jointly inaugurated the 1020MW  Punatsangchhuu-II hydroelectric project. The occasion also marked the King’s 70^th birthday.

The project inauguration was hailed as a milestone in the vibrant and growing mutually beneficial partnership between India and Bhutan. India also announced a new concessional line of credit of Rs 4,000 crores for Bhutan to fund other energy projects.

Bhutan currently produces all its electricity from renewable energy and has a negative carbon footprint. This latest hydroelectric project will increase electricity production from hydro sources by 40%. India will also assist in the resumption of work on the main dam structure of 1200 MW at Punatsangchhu.

To promote connectivity for Bhutan and give it easy access to India’s vast markets a new initiative is about to unfold. The Bhutanese border towns of Gelephu and Samtse will be joined with India’s vast railway network shortly. Bhutan intends developing the Gelephu Mindfulness City as a consequence. India will establish an immigration check post at Hatisar, just across from Gelemphu and develop infrastructure on its side of the border.

The two countries signed 3 MoUs during this visit of 11-12 November 2025,  on renewable energy, mental health services, and healthcare.

India had earlier also announced a contribution of Rs 10,000 crores in 2024, towards Bhutan’s Five-Year Plan of development in areas such as roads, agriculture, finance, healthcare.

The railway connectivity with buffer state Bhutan will also help strengthen infrastructure to protect the so-called Chicken Neck  and the Siliguri Corridor overseen by China from the Doklam plateau. India has already strengthened its military presence in the area of the Chicken Neck including the revival of a WWII airport in the area, the placement of troops, missiles, fighter aircraft and other items. It has also been conducting elaborate military exercises in all its border regions to ensure preparedness and smooth coordination between the different arms of the military

This is important because, in addition to China, Bangladesh and Pakistan have also been taking a renewed interest in the Chicken Neck and Siliguri Corridor area, vital for India’s communication and connectivity with its North Eastern States.

Bhutan is not very comfortable with Chinese attention and blandishments towards development and trade, because as a hereditary kingdom it is wary of the powerful Communist dictatorship. However, there are some in its population and political makeup that favour closer ties with China. Bhutan therefore has to perform a careful balancing act between India and China.

Matters have improved somewhat because of China’s rivalry with the US and the weakening of its economy. It is preoccupied with its own troubles and less interested with outside adventurism abroad. Much of the billions it has spent on its belt and road initiatives plus its string of pearls strategy has gone bad.

India, on its part, has identified two chicken neck like areas in Bangladesh with access to the Bay of Bengal in both cases, which makes it vulnerable to outside attack and capture. This could restrain its ability to seek any misadventure against India. India also controls much of the water that flows into Bangladesh and could cancel its water sharing arrangements just as it has with Pakistan. Likewise it is dependent on India for electricity to a large extent. A misadventure could nevertheless happen, because of jingoism and miscalculation, egged on by Pakistan and China.  However neither country may in the end get directly involved nor will any other Islamic country Bangladesh might count on, such as Turkiye.  Myanmar is also going through a troubled relationship with Bangladesh.  So if a military misadventure goes wrong for it, it could trifurcate Bangladesh territory as it stands.

The fact that India is rapidly improving its defences and aatmanirbhar defence preparedness is important. In a demonstrator by way of its highly successful showing in  the  short Operation Sindoor against the combination of Pakistan assisted by China, was most telling. Nobody in the neighbourhood including a China that prefers to use proxies in conflicts, is left sure of itself in any future conflict with India.

India’s exports of armaments and the demand for them has risen sharply since Operation Sindoor. Meanwhile new systems are being added that extend its range, speed, surveillance and technology. A possibility of Operation Sindoor 2.0 in kinetic mode is hovering in the air and could do substantially more damage to Pakistan than the earlier one. The Taliban in Afghanistan are already at war with Pakistan but have mended fences with India.

All this is also not lost on tiny Bhutan as it weighs its options.

(885 words)

November 12^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

US Keen To Sell Its Armaments To India Via Freshly Minted 10 Year Defence Framework Agreement

Is the tide turning with the GOP itself voting against President Trump’s tariff policy? The Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and President Trump himself are both suggesting that a framework trade agreement may be agreed upon between India and the US very soon. It would also probably reduce the punitive tariffs to no more than 15% overall. But, with the mercurial Trump administration one never knows till the signing and the drying of the ink.

While the 50 percent trade tariffs on India persist in the meantime, one of the highest in the world, peppered with constant and diplomatically offensive pressure, a freshly minted agreement on defence cooperation offers unexpected hope. Is this a first step to the classic Trump roll-back or just the sniff of a parcel of deals?  

The framework agreement signed at the Defence Ministers Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, the ADMM-Plus, by Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and US Secretary for War Pete Hegseth was accompanied by many feel-good statements on the importance of the US-India defence relationship, the rule based order, international maritime security, the Asia-Pacific and so on. But this was at the level of the defence ministers and offers a platform for a U turn.  Because the Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China is no longer a Trump administration priority. Neither is QUAD from all indications.

It does cover real-time intelligence sharing but let us remember America refused GPS coordinates during the Kargil War. The formation of a joint task force for the Indo-Pacific, joint naval patrolling, technology transfer, joint manufacturing of advanced military systems in India are all in the document.

It says America will manufacture drones and the F414 fighter engines in India with partial if not full technology transfer. Stryker armoured vehicles will begin to be produced in India in 2026. This one has been in the air for years and meanwhile India has made a number of good armoured vehicles of its own. The plan is to manufacture the 31 Predator drones on order in India by 2027. America will work with India on Hypersonic missile technology by 2027. It will start developing KN engines in India, and by 2035 America will transfer  complete 5^th generation fighter technology. Can  all this be believed? Why did America decide to draw up such an agreement for the first time ever? Is India meant to cross over into the US camp in delight?

As far as India’s defence cooperation with the US towards its aatmanirbhar programme and technology transfer needs go, the possibilities have always been vague and undefined. This, particularly in contrast with its progress made with France, Israel, and Russia.

However, America is not enamoured with India’s policies of strategic autonomy in order to suit its own national needs. It prefers docile allies who do as they are told. So this is a persistent hindrance to the Indo-US relationship unlike its progress with an apparently compliant Pakistan. Now the Americans are saying Pakistan is only useful for short term goals. But how can one defence agreement turn a persistent more or less anti-India policy on its ear? Americans have been good at saying one thing and doing another rather like the Chinese. Written agreements mean little to both.

America is also busy finding ways to cooperate with China, as the Trmp-Xi meeting in South Korea demonstrates, after its attempts to bully it into submission failed.  

With India, the same thing applies in the minor register, we too won’t be bullied, but India does not enjoy the points of leverage thar China does. So America tends to renege on commitments with impunity, and drag its feet generally. It does not want to lose India altogether from its sphere of influence and so keeps agreements like this one going. If it means business it could start with delivering the F404 engines quickly for a start.

Purchases of American defence equipment by India, often necessary for their technology and quality, have to bear with interminable delays and sometimes renegotiations of cost. The American system has many barriers and checks that take time for high technology equipment, not helped by America not being in a hurry to execute them on time lines agreed.  America does not part with its codes for defence equipment and has been known to use them to cripple aircraft and other weapons at critical times.

Nevertheless, we do have several new defence deals on the anvil and ongoing, in addition to the $25 billion in American military equipment purchases made by India since 2007.  Right now there is a $ 3.8 billionMQ9B armed Predator drone on order for 31 of them, being executed for completion by 2029-30. They say these will now be made in India. The last three of six Apache helicopter gunships are being flown over in a transport aircraft for the Indian Army after a long delay. The order for 99 GE F404-IN20 engines for the Tejas MK1 A executed in 2021 for $716 million is proceeding very slowly after a two-year stoppage in supply.  Only four engines of the 99 ordered have been delivered so far. Another follow-on order for 113 engines worth $ 1 billion is being negotiated and almost ready to be signed.  Yet another order for hundreds of  the GE F414 engine intended for the Tejas MK2 along with an 80% technology transfer and manufacture in India is also being negotiated. Is this defence agreement saying it is through? At what price? To be built in India starting when?

This snail’s pace in these orders and negotiations suggest a strategic dimension in which America is apparently not keen on seeing India make its own fighter aircraft any time soon. But perhaps it also wants to lure us away from the competition.

India is working on alternatives of its own manufacture  for UAVs,drones and fighters and in collaboration of Safran of France even as its fit-for-battle fighter squadrons are much below comfort levels.

India is also advancing a cooperation with Brazil for its Embraer C-390 Millenium transport aircraft in a possible barter deal for an equivalent value of Tejas fighter aircraft and Prachand helicopters.

A collaboration with Airbus is already ongoing for H125 helicopters and C295  military transport aircraft in partnership with the private sector Tata Group.

Russia is very eager to offer its latest Su- 57E stealth fighter aircraft with full technology transfer and production in India in addition to the Sukhoi 30s made under licence in India with the Su-30MK1 largely customised to Indian needs.

Very recently India has signed an agreement with Russia to jointly produce medium sized commercial aircraft, the SJ-100 with full technology transfer in India. The message to America is that India is clearly not restricted by American sanctions imposed on Russia. This again in the context of massive delays in supplying Boeing aircraft to the Indian aviation industry as well as quality concerns highlighted by the tragic Dreamliner crash in Gujarat.

India is already very successful with its BRAHMOS missiles jointly developed with Russia. It extensively uses the Russian S 400 air-shield with more sets on order. Other cooperation with the UK, Russia, Germany and France in the naval engines, propulsion units, nuclear engines, submarines and specialised naval ships are a precursor to more in commercial shipbuilding as a new thrust area.  While American Cummins engines are used in our light Zorowar tanks, India is trying to develop its own as well.

So, it is clear that America is not our only mainstay, even as the Indian aatmanirbhar defence industry is growing very fast and is reflected in more and more export orders as well.

Perhaps America realises these are favourable results of India’s strategic autonomy and wants to ensure it stays in India’s procurement and technology demand game.

In the overall scheme of things however, and on the face of it, this 10 year defence framework agreement is most welcome.

(1312 words)

November 1^st, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Season Of FTAs  With Switzerland and Britain Done Will Likely Take India GDP To 8 Percent

The advantages of becoming the world’s third largest major economy by 2028 are many. It has been stated and oft repeated by India. But this time the British prime minister himself, heading up the 6^th largest economy now, said it, during his visit just concluded. These advantages are likely to manifest thick and fast as more and more countries make a bee-line for the most populous country on earth.

India, with a 70 crore strong consuming middle class alone, compared to a total population of 7 crores in Britain and 25 crores in America, is the fastest growing major economy in the world. It has a roaring domestic economy and huge consumption statistics. It is building infrastructure to modernise at a frenetic pace.

India’s own ambition of becoming a developed country by 2047, calls for a quickening of the GDP rate from the present 6.5% to 8% and more. Greater trade and cooperation with the international community may well provide the necessary fillip.

The trade agreement with Switzerland and three other small countries not in the EU, namely the EFTA- Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, just became effective in October 2025, and promises to pour in an investment of $ 100 billion over 15 years. It took decades to finalise this agreement, but now India’s time has come.

 The EU-India FTA is also nearing completion, as is the Indo-US interim trade agreement, despite knotty issues in the negotiations mainly related to agricultural items. The fact that India follows strategic autonomy in its foreign policy and its national interest in trade negotiations rankles the West, long used to enforcing unequal treaties when dealing with a poor and pliant India. But under the present Modi government, there is little choice but to respect its stance.

The Indo-UK FTA, also in the works for a long time was finalised in July 2025 and was signed recently when Prime Minister Modi visited the UK. The follow-up visit by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer over two days, along with a 125 strong entourage, resulted in at least three substantial announcements.

There will be nine British university India campuses opened shortly. Letters of intent were received during the visit from Lancaster University for a campus in Bengaluru, and an in-principle approval for a campus of the University of Surrey in GIFT City, Gujarat. Many others will follow with Prime Minister Starmer saying all the British universities will come. This will provide access to quality British higher education at a greatly reduced overall cost to the Indian students and their families. Will the American universities and those from Singapore and Australia follow suit?

India signed an agreement to buy over Rs4,000 crores worth (350 million pounds sterling), of Lightweight Multirole Missiles (LMM) manufactured by Thales of UK. In addition, India and Britain intend to finalise a government-to -government agreement to cooperate on developing maritime electric propulsion systems for Indian naval platforms. This will be worth an estimated 250 million pounds in the first phase alone.

There was an agreement for training of IAF flying instructors with the RAF. There will be joint research and development in AI and critical minerals. Efforts are on to revitalise existing joint trade bodies and CEO forums afresh.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expects trade and cooperation with Britain to double in five years or sooner, to over $100 billion from the current $ 56 billion. With the UK growing at 1% or less, this FTA is extremely important for it and represents the first major agreement after Britain left the EU in Brexit.

Other items discussed include intelligence sharing, negative media in Britain, Khalistani activists, vociferous Islamists who favour Pakistan, fugitives from the law in India residing in Britain, economic offenders, but it is difficult to assess if Britain is politically able to do very much to curb their activities, or to repatriate any of them. Likewise Prime Minister Starmer is holding firm on not letting in more Indians into Britain, or loosening stringent visa conditions.

Britain is closely allied to America, and will need to harmonise its changing policies to a great extent with the US, and this could affect security cooperation including technology transfers between India and Britain despite the FTA.  However, because France, a NATO member like itself, and a leading force in the EU along with Germany, that is also cooperating in defence with India, these rival competitors will persuade Britain to try and  stay in the fray as much as possible.

America’s overall waning influence in an increasingly multipolar world is another reason to reorient policies that are=out-of-date including those in the UN and UNSC. The conversations on these matters is cordial but it is likely that the UNSC permanent members with the veto, and the G7, despite a push from BRICS, will not budge from long held positions, for as long as it can.

India, on its own, a major player in the G20 and BRICS, and increasingly in the SCO and ASEAN, plus a leader of the Global South, cannot be easily pushed aside, and both Europe and America are coming to terms with this. They’ve had to do so for long with China, and now India too won’t be denied. That India is inching towards better relations with China is also not lost on them.

India’s warm relationship with Russia including the purchase of large amounts of crude oil and armaments from it, despite Britain’s hawkish stance on Ukraine, has not been allowed to get in the way.

The dramatic cut in duties both ways in the Indo-UK FTA will facilitate Indian exports of most materials under 50% tariff from the US such as textiles, gems and jewellery, leather goods, agricultural produce, sea-food, and likewise lead to imports of multiple British goods including Scotch at much lower prices.

However, in all the FTAs under negotiation, there are some red lines drawn by both sides, but the attempt is to agree on as much as possible for the sake of greater trade and industry. This is the realistic situation in today’s world as the old order with a dominant West gradually gives way to a multipolar world led by China and India.

(1,027 words)

October 10^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

High Technology Comes To The Rescue In Land Of Stampedes

Sometimes a good idea hiding in plain sight comes at last to the fore and begins to receive due attention. Home Minister Amit Shah, exasperated no doubt at the endless deaths and injuries that is giving India a bad name for callousness, has come up with a plan.

It applies to a host of situations, though he specifically mentioned temples. It could be used at political rallies, weddings, funerals, processions, railway stations, hordes going to hill stations, forts, any other large moving or static gathering. It applies also to ecologically sensitive areas in the mountains, rivers, lakes, animal sanctuaries, other tourist spots.

This is by way of a first national SOP (standard operating procedure) for crowd control and will prevent needless deaths and injuries if strictly implemented.

It will become the first design and template for excuse-proof structured crowd management. Of course, a lot of work needs to be done on it, because, particularly for ancient temples and temple towns, and traditional pilgrimages and melas. It applies to the crowds going to the Char Dhams in Uttarakhand, the Jagannath Rath Yatra in Puri, The Sabarimala in the South, Vaishno Devi and Amarnath in J&K. Huge congregations of the old and infirm such as at the Ganga Sagar in West Bengal, men women, children, sadhus, foreigners at the gargantuan Kumbh Melas held every four years, culminating in the Mahakumbh at Prayagraj. It is clear the SOP needs to be elaborate because one size does not fit all. It could be worked into a law by parliament and the state legislatures so that breaches and flouting of it can be punished without constituting fact finding committees after each disaster.

Ingress by bus, train, aircraft, on foot, and departure by similar means, needs looking at, inclusive of traffic routing, parking and controlled arrivals and departure.

A beginning on this was made at the last Maha Kumbh Mela which, though it saw a couple of stampedes, was by far the best managed gathering at the Prayagraj Sangam ever. It was also the greatest such gathering ever held on earth.Full marks for that goes not only to the Centre but also the Yogi Adityanath government in Uttar Pradesh. And yet people broke through police barriers in their indiscipline and trampled others underfoot. Statistically it may not have been much but the human tragedy in this and all other such incidents cannot be wished away.

Use of  new tools such as AI for crowd management,  and drones to oversee the crowd movements forms part of it, along with real time communication between administration, police and para military forces deployed to regulate and guide crowds. Lighting, medical facilities, epidemic control, water, toilets, accommodation, food, all need to be adequate to ample.

Political interference, with the authorities and others on high manipulations including out of turn VIP access, that disrupts security must be strictly avoided. These do untold damage to the common man even if an SOP is in place because it overrides instructions. The SOP could well restrict the VIP appearances to Video conferencing to avoid the special security needs of such people.

The need felt for an SOP has come not a moment to soon in a country teeming with over 1.4 billion people. Many of the people routinely killed in stampedes are the weak, the elderly, women and children.

Of course, in addition to restricting the numbers admitted to a crowded venue, including the routes leading to it, attention needs to be paid to entry points/ internal pathways and routing, seating, and separate exits so that they do not make for classic choke points. 

Here too, like roads that are made one ways to let one side out before the other is let in, or boarding procedures at aircraft, crowd management is a must. 

Compensation paid to the families of the dead and injured after yet another disaster runs a poor second to prevention. So does trying to pinpoint blame, always inconclusive, after the fact.

Mere breach of permissions and flouting of stated rules, which happens with sickening regularity both by the organisers and the people, can be anticipated and prevented.

Temple access is often through ancient and crowded areas and as in Varanasi at the Kashi Vishwanath temple and also at Ujjain modern avenues may have to be rebuilt by demolishing old buildings and pathways. This has been done extensively also at Ayodhya, where a lot of infrastructure has also been recently created by way of hotels, the airport, a new and renovated railway station, roads. Likewise at Varanasi. Similar works are being carried out at Mathura by means of a special corridor. Facilities at Katra at the start of the Vasno Devi yatra is another case in point. Roads to the Char Dhams are largely renovated and expanded. Ropeways are being put in.

In other words, the SOP  must include a much broader swathe of works, extending much beyond the local area. All of it, now well underway in terms of modernisation of infrastructure contributes to the convenience and safety called for.

In India it might have been long assumed that human life is cheap. It is perhaps  only now being regarded as valuable because for decades, if not centuries,  very little regard was paid to those who were killed by flood, famine, pestilence, marauders, riots, let alone stampedes.

But no country that is on its way to shortly becoming the third largest economy in the world can afford to treat its citizens with such scant respect. Indians may be numerous, and India may have the largest population in the world, but it is this very fact that gives us an enormous and young workforce that powers us ahead. Education, civic sense, medical facilities all come into the mix to lift ourselves out of the stampede culture we have had to endure for far too long. Home Minister Amit Shah must be commended for his sterling initiative and the administration must implement his SOP with diligence and alacrity.

(995 words)

October 3^rd, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Time For India To Open Its Own IT Innovation Hubs

India has long lamented its ‘Brain Drain’ from the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs), in particular. The Indian taxpayer has subsidised top class technical higher education, right  from the days we could ill afford it, only to see the entire highly talented class of graduates make a bee-line for the US.  This is true of our doctors and nurses prominent all over the world in addition to the US and Europe as well.

There, at the fabled El Dorado, our IT people have had  challenging opportunities, excellent pay and perquisites, and a high standard of living. This has gone on for decades. In India the IT companies like Infosys and TCS among a host of others have also blossomed alongside and contributed handsomely to India’s software exports.

Now all this may have to change, at least for new aspirants for the H1B visa, because the Trump administration has put a $100,000 fee on it  The existing visa holders,( nearly 80 percent of all H1B visas are held by Indians), can continue and renew them without additional charges, beyond the nominal rates applied at present.

This $100,000, if it remains unchanged, puts a virtual ban on new applicants. It is an amount neither the individual nor his sponsoring company, either in India or the US, can afford. However, if the intent is to force the hiring of American citizens instead, the IT companies may have a difficult time of it, because there are not many with the requisite skill sets.

Some American and European companies have already opened and operate design hubs, data mining, back-office and other types of centres in India. But before this new hundred-fold increase in visa charges, most American companies ran their Centres of Innovation in America, but largely using top grade Indian talent.

Because of this dominant global structure imposed by the biggest buyers of the resultant software, Indians ended up doing much of the basic IT work via what has been derisively called technical coolie work. Indian companies have thus far avoided competing with Innovation Centres of their own. These could have come up quite easily in India, and will, no doubt do so now. They can also sprout in nearby offshore locations, with liberal tax laws and excellent infrastructure, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

India  now has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the UAE since 2022, which can greatly assist swift cooperation and collaboration for such Innovation Centres.

Artificial Intelligence development that is changing the entire IT landscape, as the next step up from semiconductors/chip manufacturing and use, with its revolutionary abilities and cost saving applications need vast amounts of electricity.  So does the semiconductors and chip development industry getting started in a big way in India, in addition to large amounts of water, and of course, rare earth mineral products such as ‘magnets’. But AI, while essentially using semiconductors/chips can constantly improve their capability and quality.

Rare Earth mineral development and its products are also being fast-tracked in India from mining onwards. But right now it relies on imports from current monopolist China. Neither the semiconductor/chips nor AI can function without rare earth products.

India is now more than willing to take the comprehensive plunge and just as it has obtained collaborators from Taiwan and South Korea for chips and semiconductor manufacture, supported by huge government incentives under generous PLI schemes, there is no reason why the same cant be done for the development of Technical Innovation in IT.

India can also offer long-term visas to Europeans, Americans, Taiwanese, Japanese, Koreans and technical Chinese to set up  on their own. We couls also collaborate with the Chinese in China and learn rare earth technology, chip magnet manufacturing and probably cyber protection. They want Indian technical talent and are offering visas. India’s major advantage is this large pool of technical personnel that could be employed in the Indian Innovation Centres and elsewhere. Germany and China may have been quick off the mark, but there will be many others such as Canada and Britain wanting to employ Indians for their technical expertise and ease with the English language.

With ongoing economic reforms, a robust economy, and the growth of India as a manufacturing and investment destination, the possibilities are indeed great.

Internally, lowering of GST rates, income tax rates, hike in government pensions and salaries, are collectively setting off a consumer boom to counter the US tariff wars. We can see a flash growth already in automobile sales right at the beginning of the festive season. Rate cuts in  repo interest by thew RBI based on low inflation and a reduced trade deficit is stimulating private sector investment. This includes the MSME sector that employs large numbers. There is greater consumer spending as intended. News reports indicate there is a likelihood of allowing greater foreign investment in Indian banks in the near future.

In short, things are accelerating in the Indian economy. Present threats to labour intensive employment because of high US tariffs will probably resolve soon.

 FTAs with the EU and indeed the US may both be in place by the end of this calendar year 2025.  From 50% tariffs imposed by the US we may be down to about 10 to 15% with an interim trade agreement in hand as well.

The Innovation Centres that India may soon set up will contribute to the immense demands of the domestic market let alone export. That will interest foreign investors because few such opportunities exist now.  AI could contribute substantially to spends even as it improves efficiency and profits. India’s stress  on aatmanirbhar Make in India is the leit motif.

This is being seized upon by a large number of foreign companies who regard it as their way into the vast Indian market. In addition, there is the consumption of the huge domestic defence industry. Companies off the starting block with MROs, collaborations, technology transfers include Dassault and Airbus from Europe, Embraer from Brazil, GE  from the US , Rolls Royce from the UK, Russian defence companies. An FTA with the UK and another with four countries in Europe including Switzerland already exist.  There is a lot of collaboration in missile and drone technology with Israel in addition to substantial imports as well.

Submarine technology is coming into the collaborations with France and Germany. Other aircraft companies such as Boeing, Airbus, Rafale (Dassault), and Lockheed Martin are  also sourcing parts and components from India and its private sector independently.

AI can greatly help the semiconductors and chip industry, the electronic space, the automotive industry including electrical cars, alternative energy,  fuel refining and distribution, lubricants, nuclear energy. , infrastructure, including roads, tunnels, airports, dredging, dams, canals, railways and civil aviation, UAVs, drones, chemicals, fertilizers, ISRO and space, machines used in manufacture themselves. Then there is food production, afforestation, conservation, animal welfare,  indeed value addition of various sorts to almost every endeavour. The sky is the limit in India and IT innovation Centres can contribute massively to it all. If we get it right, we can do it all for ourselves and export our cutting edge know-how too.

Commercial  Ship-building is attracting big investments from South Korea, Japan and others. Modern ports are developing at a fast pace including container handling deep water ports. Off shore drilling for large oil reserves off the Andaman Islands offer great prospects. The electronics sector is not only attracting major American companies like Intel and Apple but also Samsung of Korea. And  all are committed to Make in India.

The question is not really about the potential. It is about how quickly India can move to seize the day.

(1,271 words)

September 24^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Topsy Turvy World of Coercive Trump Tariffs & Penalties And What India Can Do About It

The US-India relationship, called a geostrategic imperative for decades now, particularly in conjunction with the rise of China as a challenger to US hegemony, seems to have soured very suddenly.

What India now does about the situation will define not only the bilateral relationship going forward, the multilateral one in QUAD, and India’s standing in the world. This, as it goes towards becoming the world’s third largest economy before 2030.

The answer lies in a combination of retaliatory tariff hikes and even brand-new impositions on American companies operating in India, for example in the digital space, and diplomatic accommodation of American demands on trade wherever possible.

Caving in abjectly to US dictation has been swiftly ruled out. Perhaps the policymakers in Washington have not properly assessed the determination and backbone of the Modi administration.   In response to the near abusive tone adopted by Trump, unable to bully India into buckling under, India has said it will act only in its national interest.

But having said that, to take the relationship forward without a rupture, very skilful give and take will nevertheless have to take place. Even an adversary like China realises this in the midst of this tariff war with the US.

The Indian stock market is not unduly perturbed because tariff impositions like this cannot make too much of an impact in a country driven by its domestic economy. This is the key difference between India and many other highly export dependent countries.

 Still, the US currently accounts for half of all Indian exports, and till lately, the bilateral trade was expected to treble to $500 billion by 2030. Unless repaired, the present figure of $ 150 billion, with the balance of trade in India’s favour, could largely evaporate.

Instead of it being thought of as the ‘plus one’ to China as the US seeks to create new supply chains, other countries in South and South East Asia could assume this mantle, albeit collectively. This would be bad for India as a historic opportunity missed.

At the same time, India’s stellar growth rate of about 6.5% in GDP year-on-year, the highest amongst all major economies, could be impacted by up to 0.5% by US tariffs at 25% on Indian exports.

This is not counting as yet excluded sectors such as service exports, meaning software in the main. Pharmaceuticals are also not included but tariffs on them have been threatened. US pharmaceutical companies, which have Indian counterparts have been brought under the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) scanner. These include Aurobindo Pharma, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, and Sun Pharma. Various inspections are being conducted. But generic drug exporters, could face tariffs next.

Then there are as yet unspecified penalties for India’s membership of BRICS perceived as an anti-US organisation hostile to using the US dollar as a global currency for most trade. Does India need to really stay in BRICS which leans towards China, or could it move away to a leadership of the Global South instead?

India wants to promote its UPI but not get rid of the US dollar in favour of the Chinese currency. It has made this clear on more than one occasion.

America is also annoyed along with the NATO countries in Europe at India’s neutrality on Ukraine and buying petroleum from war sanctioned Russia.

The Trump administration also does not want India to buy armaments from Russia either despite the great success of the S-400 and Brahmos missiles in the recent Operation Sindoor against Pakistan.

We will know the extent of the blow only when the penalties are specified, but it could be well over 100%.

For now, India has been subjected to one of the higher tariffs amongst its export competitors, Vietnam and Bangladesh for example. These begin, in the absence of its agreement to allow American dairy, GM seeds and agricultural products at nil tariff into the country. The sectors gravely affected are textiles and ready-made garments, plus gems and jewellery, which are all labour intensive.

India could consider redirecting these exports via the UK with whom an FTA has just been concluded at nil duty. The UAE, with which country India also has an FTA, presents another route.

We do not have tariffs like Vietnam for conducting third party exports either. India, like others, and China before it, could look for circumventions too.

Even after five rounds of face-to-face negotiations and a sixth meeting scheduled around the 20-21^st of August 2025 in Delhi, dairy and agricultural products are sticking points. Will India be able to concede ground on some items within this sphere, particularly in the processed foods area, to allow the Trump administration to call it a win?

Of course, the dairy and agriculture sectors are politically sensitive in India with rural India, its farmers and others, constituting a very powerful voting block and lobby, ever ready to march on Delhi in an instant. Still, certain items in the detail which don’t pose a threat to Indian agriculturists could be allowed in.

An interim trade deal could then result, and the punitive 25% tariffs would be overtaken. A full agreement could come after at least a year when all issues have been scrutinised and negotiated. America wants access to the Indian market and India would be churlish to miss the chance to achieve a good FTA with America. This more so with China as our main economic and military competitor next door.

India could also further diversify its imports of oil and gas, looking father afield to reduce its purchase of Russian product. This, provided lucrative deals better than those on offer from Russia could be struck. Hopefully, the Trump administration will not take an absolutist position and live and let live.

As for armaments, can America supply what India needs quickly enough and at a reasonable price? The US track record on the supply of GE 404 and 414 engines for India’s hugely delayed Tejas 1A and 2A fighter programmes has been most discouraging. Likewise, the Apache AH-64E combat helicopters on order are vastly delayed for some years, the deal was signed in 2020. With only three out of the six just delivered, and the other three promised by the end of 2025.

America is also very expensive, slow on export permissions on its high technology armaments, and reluctant to collaborate and transfer technology. It would have to change all this, and be consistent going forward without using any of it for leverage against India.

 While Russia is immersed in the war in Ukraine, it has continuously tried to support the Indian armed forces, and has offered best terms on its advanced equipment with technology transfer. France, Germany, the UK and Israel have also become defence partners with India and provide alternatives to both Russia and America.

The commercial Boeing aircraft on order by the private sector are also much delayed, even as various Boeing aircraft in India and abroad are showing a lot of technical problems, that even resulted in a major crash of a 787-8 Dreamliner at Ahmedabad recently.

Is the American aviation industry slipping? The $100 million F35 is showing problems with one stranded for over a month in India before it was repaired and another crashed in America. Everything military equipment wise, if it comes from the US, is most tardy. Yes, there is definitely room for give and take and revisions of stance between the two great democracies.

(1,234 words)

August 1^st, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

 

India Must Recycle, Mine, Refine, Import, Critical Rare Earth Mineral Products To Get Away From Chinese Market Dominance

A worry on what to do with EV Lithium batteries once their life is over, in about eight years, based on current technology, is being addressed. Instead of heaping them up without use, the batteries can be recycled to extract critical rare earth minerals. This process is faster, and is at least 25% cheaper than setting up greenfield mines and refining facilities, and, deals with some part of the waste material at the same time.

India could even import expired EV batteries to recycle their rare earth minerals and magnets. It already runs some of the largest ship scrappage facilities in the world and attracts many large ships at the end of their useful life from all over the world.

China’s trade war with America is based on restricted sale and export of critical minerals/ metals/magnets. But it also restricts such sales in general, so that the requirements cannot be sourced from third countries not on the embargoed list. This has prompted most of the world to seek alternatives.

India and its fast-developing aatmanirbharta manufacturing programme is hard hit as stockpiles of the rare earth magnets run out.  

Besides recycling, several countries including major consumers in the US and Europe, plan to increase the mining of their own resources and set up refining plants for end products.

So far, most countries who have been hit with Chinese embargoes, were content to source them from China for its cost advantages, and the fact that mining and refining rare earth minerals is a highly polluting business. Despite being a near monopoly on the part of China, the price of rare earth minerals, metals and magnets have been falling according to Australia. This may be another engineered tactic on the part of the Chinese to keep competition out.

However, even as countries resolve to reduce this dependence on China, alternative facilities cannot sprout overnight. The sudden shortage is crippling the Electrical Vehicle (EV) production market. In addition, the renewable energy resources area, in which India has been making rapid strides is also hampered. Likewise, the crucial defence manufacturing ventures that use sophisticated electronics as well. For the moment the leverage advantage is definitely with China.

India is not only planning to mine its own reserves of rare earth minerals but has been active in setting up trade agreements with other countries in Africa and South America that have these resources. America has large reserves in- country as well, and could well become a new developed source.  

So while China, because of its dominance and economies of scale in the field can hamper and disrupt various activities for now, it is probably not for too protracted a period.  Other supply chains are under development, with cooperation between nations without involving China. Explorations are ongoing in new countries like Oman, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Thereafter, as this effort is up and running over the next few years, China may find itself in trouble trying to export these very monopolistic resources that it has spent so much time and money developing.

Meanwhile India is already taking some concrete steps. It proposes to incentivise domestic production of rare earth minerals and magnets by Indian companies with an amount of Rs. 1,345 crores. The key target sectors are electric vehicles, electronics and defence. One item for example, neodymium magnets, are crucial in EVs, wind energy systems, mobile phones, defence equipment.

The early Indian initiative is designed to support the production of 1,500 tonnes of rare earth magnets. India currently produces only 1% of global output in critical rare earth minerals even though it has 6% of the global reserves. India is also exploring a partnership with Australia which has at least 5% and is selling it to Japan, that has managed to reduce its dependence on China to 60%. However, Australia is highly dependent on China for its trade and investments and cannot go against Chinese wishes.

Therefore, India is also looking elsewhere for supplies. Presently, China controls 69% of the rare earth minerals, metals and magnets production and market. America contributes 12%, Myanmar holds 11% and Australia accounts for 5%. Myanmar has a strong alliance with China, that takes the joint tally to about 80%. The manufacturing process combines light rare earth elements such as neodymium and praseodymium with traces of heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium. Procuring all these elements is not easy. India currently produces the light rare earth items some 2,900 tonnes worth, and none of the heavy earth minerals. Most of the product is found in coastal beach sands with low mineral content. Samarium-cobalt magnets are being developed in a pilot plant for the defence industry. Explorations are going on in different coastal and sand rich interior states like Rajasthan.

Its Lithium that has been discovered in J&K, but that is another part of the EV jigsaw.

Efforts are also ongoing to develop Sodium-Ion batteries in countries like Japan, ever more efficient internal combustion engines with almost nil pollution in various developed economies. This will prolong and preserve their automotive fuel based industries. Then, there is propulsion using hydrogen. India has made both buses and trains at the trial stage that can run on hydrogen and have nil pollutants. It also has hydrogen producing factories. Other technological applications such as nuclear energy are also being explored to take a leaf out of nuclear-powered submarines, aircraft carriers, and some specialised ships.

For the moment however, there is very little option but to persuade China to sell us rare earth minerals and magnets to keep various industries going. This will take negotiation and give and take. America, for example, that had put restrictions on high-end electronic chips from being sold to China, has been forced to lift them in exchange for the rare earth products.

(964 words)

July 23^rd, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

When Will The UK Government Funded BBC Have Its Anti India Switch Fixed

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) put out a hurried report apparently implying Indian pilot error for the Air India plane crash a month ago. It was typically based on a selective interpretation of the preliminary findings from the Indian investigative authorities.

The report did not emphasise the tendency of the fuel switches to malfunction and disengage despite the provision of locking mechanisms.

In a glaring expression of bias, probably intended to shield aircraft maker Boeing and jet engine maker General Electric, the BBC glossed over the American Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) bulletin from 2018 pointing out problems with the fuel switches in Boeing 737 jet aircraft. The same switches are also installed in the 787-8 Dreamliner that crashed.

The BBC instead pointed out that the FAA bulletin from 2018 just highlighted the problem that could, and in this instance did have fatal consequences, did not mandatorily insist on the fuel switches being fixed or replaced. Instead, the FAA stressed inspection. Was it laxness then on the part of the American FAA compounded by Boeing? Are even the faulty switches being sought to be foisted on Air India’s inspection negligence?

The tendency of the BBC to put out slanted reports on matters Indian is not new. It has done so time and again making up quite a long list, this being only the latest example. As a British entity financed by the licence fee paid by ordinary TV watching Britons, but not averse to accepting donations from all sorts of entities including the Chinese and countries that are against Israel.

Its irresponsible actions against India, probably a consequence of large number of anti-India Communists in their ranks,  that seem to dislike the Congress administration as much as the Modi one, pro-Pakistan origin employees, and a colonial hangover. However, all this lying and half-truth, not only harms its own reputation, but potentially also Indo-British relations.

These relations are now being taken up a notch by the implementation of a hard negotiated Free Trade Agreement (FTA). There is also an ongoing negotiation and competition between Rolls Royce of Britain and Safran of France to collaborate with India to manufacture a brand new AMCA sixth generation stealth fighter engine. Other military engine collaborations for the Indian Navy are also in the works even as the British economy is not doing very well.

A preliminary report on this first Air India crash in decades, released by the Indian Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) on July 13^th  one month after the end of Air India AI 171 at Ahmedabad, stated that the fuel switches were apparently switched off for both engines.

They were switched off, one after the other, just1-3 seconds after take-off, and then switched on again, probably by the pilots, or because they were free floating, unable to lock into OFF or RUN positions. One engine came back to life providing some thrust after some 10-14 seconds, but the aircraft could not gain height even after that.

The cockpit voice recorder had one pilot asking the other why he had switched off the fuel and the other pilot saying he had not. The plane could not climb beyond 670 metres and the pilot cried May Day before crashing into a trainee doctor’s hostel building just 39 seconds after take-off. It burst into flames after three explosions caused by its momentum, the impact, and full tanks of aviation fuel.

Notably, the AAIB preliminary report mentioned that a 2018 US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) bulletin concerned the fuel control switch locking mechanisms on Boeing 737 jets. When disengaged, the switches could move more easily through vibration, contact or other factors. The FAA did not mandate fixes in the bulletin, only recommending inspections to ensure proper locking engagement. This suggests that perhaps both the fuel switches malfunctioned and were not properly locked into place in the ill-fated aircraft before take-off. This is the latest position even as the AAIB has not suggested any further action on the part of Boeing or GE at this time.

But the speculation on what happened began a month ago. Soon after the 787-8 Dreamliner, Flight AI 171 on 12^th June crashed. It killed 241 people on board and 19 on the ground, with 67 more injured.

Western ‘aviation experts’ were quick to cast speculative aspersions of pilot error on the two Indian pilots. Their clear objective, probably funded by Boeing and General Electric (GE) themselves, was to drive the narrative away from the aircraft company and its GE engines that failed. This is because any culpability established by the investigations from the successfully recovered black box, the cockpit flight recorder and the relevant wreckage would likely result in expensive law suits against Boeing and GE. These, if they went against them, would involve billions of dollars in payouts. Objectivity and balance was clearly missing in the early reactions, including those in media reports, social media posts. podcasts and so on.

 Only one Western expert notably suggested the possibility of software malfunctions in the aircraft.

Indian commentators advanced many other theories steering clear of blaming the highly experienced but dead pilots. They spoke of software malfunctions too, possible sabotage, maintenance issues, inherent flaws and shortcoming of the aircraft. They cited erstwhile Boeing executives criticising the manufacture process and short cuts taken by Boeing for the Dreamliner. At the same time, this particular aircraft had been in operation for 11 years prior and there are some 1,175 Dreamliners operating in various airlines all over the world since it began to fly in 2011.  

Early speculations included possible bird hits on both engines though later there was no evidence of this found.

Only one passenger in seat 11A escaped miraculously, almost unscathed, and he said he heard a loud bang followed by the aircraft losing height

(963 words)

July 13^th 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Is America A Good Fit To Host The Next FIFA World Cup And The Olympics

In the midst of a polarised and disrupted America under Trump 2.0 when it is unclear if the president’s many initiatives are going to bear good fruit, the next FIFA World Cup soccer tournament is scheduled for June 2026 onwards till July 19^th.. The FIFA Would Cup in 2026, its 23^rd edition, will feature 48 teams for the first time expanded from the previous 32, and be held in 16 different places. In Mexico with 2 locations, Canada with 3, both auxiliary hosts, and all over the United States in 11 locations. This is the first time that the FIFA World Cup will be hosted by three nations. The last time it was hosted by more than one country was in 1992.

The final will be played in the New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium. In fact, all the matches from the quarter finals onwards, will be played in the US. There are some who say that if the current turbulence with immigrants, political differences between the centre and some states, and visas persist, then some more of the 60 odd matches to be played in the US, out of the 104 fixtures, could be shifted to Mexico and Canada.

Soccer has grown in popularity enormously over the last decade in America and the FIFA World Cup is expected to be both a money spinner and fill stadiums in all the venues selected. But will fans from over 40 countries on the American banned list, mainly Islamic countries, be able to attend? The Trump administration said yes to FIFA  at selection time, but some doubts persist on visa issues.

Then the Los Angeles Olympics will come in the summer of 2028. The 34^th Olympiad will take place in recent illegal immigration related riot, arson and looting hot-spot Los Angeles, between July 14^th and July 30^th 2028. The Paralympic 2028 will be held thereafter between August 15^th to August 27^th 2028, also in Los Angeles.

America is of course the biggest economy and dominant military power in the world. It has hosted four winter and four summer Olympics already over the years. This, no doubt gives it considerable experience on the smooth handling of such top-level sporting events without any mishaps. The US enjoys considerable global goodwill and confidence, and has all the wherewithal to meet Olympic standards, facilities and fool-proof security for the sports competing teams and individuals, and has the infrastructure to host the enormous numbers who will come as visitors to Los Angeles.

The concern with law and order however, is a legitimate factor deserving of caution. The battle with millions of illegal immigrants and visa overstayers currently rages on under the Trump 2.0 administration. The federal government sees many of them as undesirables, criminals, gang members, drug dealers, particularly of the dangerous China supplied drug Fentanyl, that is claiming many young addicts and resulting in quite a few deaths.

But apart from the immigrants, there are also a number of disgruntled American citizens, unhappy with the conduct of the Israel- Gaza-Iran-Lebanon-Syria War, The other one in Ukraine versus Russia, and also radicalised visitors, prone to gun violence and mounting terrorist attacks.

However, this situation also prevails in Western Europe and other advanced countries, and has to be routinely tackled there too. The reality is that almost no country today is totally devoid of dissidents, fifth columnists, alien spies, resident moles, subversives, and security threats. It is just more acute in democracies with constitutionally guaranteed freedoms.

Many of the illegal immigrants in America, numbering in their millions, quite a few from South America, Islamic countries troubled by war and extremism, even India, are now being expelled. They were, in many cases, sought to be regularised in the previous Biden administration. The Democrats see them as a labour resource and a growing vote bank not unlike those state governments in India that encourage illegal immigration from Bangladesh, Myanmar and even Pakistan. President Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans base sees them as usurpers of their scarce jobs and worse.

There is a sharp difference of opinion and perspective between the liberal-left Democrats and those who support Donald Trump, on the matter. The judiciary weighs in, sometimes on the side of the immigrants citing lack of due process before their attempted expulsion, and sometimes on the side of the Trump administration.

Meanwhile the Trump administration has ramped up its efforts to secure the borders and has warned both Mexico and Canada to do likewise, both for drugs and illegals, or face punitive sanctions and tariffs for this reason, in addition to economic balance of trade considerations.

This background atmosphere is unlikely to be completely brought to heel by the summer of 2026, and perhaps not even by 2028, a presidential election year for America. Both sporting events are therefore likely to be held under the watchful eye of a strong security presence and keen intelligence operatives.

So, is the United States presently safe enough to host these major tournaments? The answer is, on balance, yes. Not only does the central government not hesitate to use fully armed federal troopers and marines to supplement the various state police departments, but an attitude of zero tolerance against rioting, arson, looting, and terrorist violence is evident in the handling of this threat.

Besides many thousands, if not quite millions of the immigrants will have been deported within the year or so left before the FIFA World Cup, and more still by the time of the summer Olympics of 2028.

Uncertainty persists, but many in the MAGA base see the vetting of who can come to the United States as well as who must leave as a form of  ‘draining of the swamp’ that stretches beyond Washington DC, to the heart of the nation.

America’s pugnacious political attitudes towards trade wars with China and many other countries, the funding of NATO, the various multilateral banking institutions, the United Nations, have also created fissures with persistent security implications. Countries under the American lash such as Iran do not easily forget and forgive.

Is America in 2025 still the ‘land of the free and the home of the brave’? The jury is out on this one, even as the Trump administration strives to make it a safer country through its crack-down on aliens, enemies, and dissidents alike.

(1,050 words)

June 24^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

India Overtakes Japan In GDP To Become 4^th Largest Major Economy In The World

India’s steady growth of over 6% in GDP per annum year-on-year over most of the past decade, is powering it into the top of the table as it overtakes advanced economies with low growth or even shrinkage. Since 2014, when the Modi first administration was formed, till now, in its third consecutive run, India has climbed from No.10 to No.4, and counting. Before this NDA term ends in 2029, India is expected to secure the No.3 slot.

And the best thing about it is that India, that is Bharat, will keep growing at over 6% if it maintains itself aloof from major geopolitical disruptions, pandemics, trade conflicts, pressures of cartels, sanctions, artificial scarcities, the ravages of addictive and illegal drugs, and is blessed by ample food security.

This is based primarily on the consumption demands of its formidable domestic economy.  With 1.4 billion plus people, of which nearly 65% are under 35 years of age presently, there is a massive and useful demographic dividend compared to ageing China with the effects of its one child policy, though now reversed.  The Indian age advantage is likely to last for another 15 years at least.

India is vulnerable as a major petroleum importer for over 80% of its needs from diversified sources. But it is taking strong steps to increase its green energy component, from nuclear power including its own manufacture of small reactors, solar, hydroelectric, wind, lithium-based battery electric, hydrogen, ethanol blending, and so on.

Japan is the latest to be surpassed with India’s economy at $ 4.19 trillion according to IMF data quoted by India’s own Niti Aayog. Germany is the next economy to overtake, to place India in the number 3 slot. This will happen when it reaches near the $ 5 trillion mark, expected in the next 2 to 3 years.

And at the No. 3 slot, India is expected to stay for the coming decades, but gathering more and more heft all the while as the time passes. This has major implications for the development of India’s infrastructure, modernisation and defence manufacturing and the resultant import substitution/exports. It could even accelerate the pace of growth to over 7% or more.

Defence preparedness is of the utmost importance with two hostile neighbours working in tandem. This is ironic in some ways, because India does a massive amount of trading with China in multiple areas where its manufacturing value chain has not yet sufficiently developed.

Pakistan fights India for religious and ideological reasons, but China, whilst appreciating the trade, wants to halt India’s fast-track progress. It also covets its land. In addition, the Western powers and America are also unhappy that India is slipping out of their biddability, if not control.

Japan, even though it is a G 7 power, is Asian, and less threatened by India’s growth.  It is more willing to share technology and cooperate with India as in the bullet train technology being developed.

However, on its own, the Indian economy is not particularly indebted, and highly resilient against domestic and global shocks, with its customary tight management. This is regularly praised by the multilateral lending agencies and the global rating agencies.

Startlingly, long term projections see India clocking up $52.5 trillion by 2075!

It already has the 3^rd largest number of billionaires at 205, only behind China’s 450, and America’s 902. In 2075, not only will the Indian population have been declining for a quarter century, its economy will be placed only marginally below China.

China is projected to become the number one economy by then, at $57 trillion in GDP. However, there is some credible doubt on whether China will stay intact, given its present economic and political woes. It is expected to break into five countries in the 2030s itself according to some think tanks, plagued by internal instability rather than outside intervention. And this, soon after its protégé and protectorate Pakistan, already bankrupt, implodes. The Islamic republic is unlikely to survive as a country in its present form beyond the end of this very decade.

Meanwhile a radicalised Bangladesh, also nearly bankrupt, in collaboration with Pakistan and China, will meet stiff resistance from India if it undertakes any misadventures. The situation in Myanmar is also volatile and worthy of careful observation to prevent it from boiling over into India’s North East. The Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea are also being monitored by India, its satellites, navy, and air force for potential threats.

Relationships with Sri Lanka, Maldives and Mauritius are being strengthened and the facilities in India’s own Andaman and Nicobar Islands are being rapidly developed.

India is perforce self-reliant in matters of strategic defence, with steady support only from Russia and Israel amongst the leading military powers. All the others have axes to grind as India rises. However, it does enjoy a lot of diplomatic support from a large number of countries. India is working on building trade corridors through multiple nations in West Asia all the way to Europe, as well as via Iran and Central Asia to Russia. Many of these Indian initiatives rival China’s belt and road programmes and efforts to gird the world in a new silk route.  

While the ASEAN region has cordial relations with India, it is closer in some ways to China. The Philippines however has drawn closer to India to combat Chinese hegemony.

America is expected to be just behind India at some $ 51.5 trillion in 2075. All other countries are projected to be far behind these big three.

India’s per capita income, presently at $ 2,200 odd, is a major bugbear, because of India’s rising population till 2050. It has certainly doubled in the last 10 years, and it grew by 9.2% in 2023. But per capita can only be high in countries with small populations.

In the interim, more and more of the Global South, the African Union, South America, as well as the developed powers are lining up to do business with India. The recent FTA with Britain about to be operationalised is a case in point. An interim trade agreement with the United States is also imminent. The EU is working on an FTA too.

India is beginning to be recognised for doing things differently, both in war and peace, as well as in its use of innovation and technology. Its purchasing power parity, already places it as the No. 3 economy for long now. Its pride of place in the G21, gives it a distinct advantage over expensive, inflationary, and low growth countries of the G7 going forward.

(1,096 words)

May 26^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

India May Be First Globally To Sign A Bilateral Trade Agreement With The US Soon After Vance Visit

The visit of the new Vice President of America to India is a timely cameo in a very important context. JD Vance, currently in India for four days in a semi-official cum private visit to New Delhi and Jaipur/Agra, along with second lady Usha Vance and their three children, is not the usual near-invisible US Vice President.

In the first hundred days of the Trump administration 2.0, Vance has been called a ‘wingman’ by the media and has featured in most of the president’s flurry of initiatives. President Donald Trump has already been asked if he sees the young and robust Vance as a successor. He demurred, probably because it is so early in the day, but called him ‘very capable’.

Vance and his family were met at the New Delhi airport by Union Railway and Information & Broadcasting Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw. He also received a ceremonial guard of honour on arrival.

Vance is being treated with all seriousness, not just as a high dignitary, but a political heavyweight in current geopolitics. His recent visits to Western Europe and Greenland left their mark in terms of advancing Trump’s vision for America. His pronouncements and actions there had their salutary impacts.

India has clearly shown its keenness to progress an enhanced trade and strategic relationship with America during Vance’s visit on Monday to meet Prime Minister Modi. This, even as the prime minister jetted off to Saudi Arabia on another strategic bilateral visit on Tuesday.

It is a crucial and unprecedented time in global geopolitics, with America recasting the earlier World Trade Organisation (WTO) based trade rules and all existing trade agreements with itself and between other nations into a bilateral format. WTO rules were, lately, being ignored with impunity anyway, mainly by China. The UN too is in a sorry state with many of its agencies infiltrated by China and other pressure groups.

And now, in order to reverse China’s trade dominance built over more than 30 years, albeit with America aiding and abetting it all the way, the US, long an advocate for free trade, has decided to use tariffs. This, to right the balance in its favour amongst massive trade deficits against it.

When President Nixon’s America engineered the rise of the bilateral relationship with China, it was partially to undermine the USSR. But, now, as they say, times have changed. China became factory to the world with $500 billion of trade with the US alone, and at least $ 150 billion with Germany and France each amongst others in the EU.

Today, in the midst of the tariff wars unleashed by the Trump administration, China is threatening all and sundry that it will punish all those countries who cave in to unilateral US tariff lowering demands.

There are very high US tariffs on China, some as high as 245%, but the US has paused punishing reciprocal tariffs on some 27 countries for 90 days, soon after April 2^nd when they were announced. This, to give these countries a chance to recast their trade rules. These were the ones that did not announce retaliatory reciprocal tariffs against the US, and indeed some announced lowering of tariffs at the first salvo. Cambodia, for example lowered its tariffs against US goods from 45% to 5% at one fell swoop.

 While the EU has announced retaliatory tariffs against the US, India’s QUAD partner Japan is also fast forwarding its trade negotiations with the US, with a trade delegation just returned after several days of negotiations in America. However, Japan earns 20% of its profit from its business with America, and 15% from dealings with China, which presents a conundrum, and calls for a careful balancing act.

India has no such problems, because like America, it runs massive and ever- growing dollar trade surpluses in favour of China. Both President Trump and Prime Minister Modi are keen to take the Indo-US strategic and military partnership to new heights, incorporating and boosting bilateral trade to some $ 500 billion annually.  This, as America plans to isolate and reduce China’s global trade drastically.

On Monday21st April, Vance held talks with Prime Minister Modi both one-on-one and at delegation level at the prime minister’s residence at 7 Lok Kalyan Marg.

The forthcoming trade agreement was discussed as well as cooperation in defence, strategic technologies, energy including nuclear energy, the forthcoming QUAD Summit that India will host this year, and other areas including the contentious tariffs on highly sheltered agricultural produce.

The negotiations have been proceeding amicably and rapidly, with India amenable to lowering its tariffs in multiple instances. The prime minister hosted the Vance family to dinner thereafter.

The Modi administration, that hosted the last G20 or the G21 by its end, before Brazil took over. India not only engineered the unanimous inclusion of the multiple country African Union, but also navigated the previous Biden term adroitly. This despite bold attempts by the American deep state spearheaded by the Biden decorated George Soros, Khalistani and Islamic terrorists, and other far-left anti-India irritants.

Nevertheless, the Indo-US strategic relationship, steadily built over several successive US administrations with even-handed bipartisan support, through the Manmohan Singh and Modi led years, has stayed on track.

However, the return of President Donald Trump for a second term after a gap of four years is a stellar opportunity to take the Indo-US relationship to a whole new level.  

Prime Minister Modi was among the first heads of government invited on a state visit to the US in February, very soon after Trump was sworn in on 20^th January 2025. Observers noted that the Indian prime minister was received by the Trumps even before America’s long standing European allies.

During the swearing in ceremony, held indoors because of the exceptionally bitter January cold, India’s External Affairs Minister was seated very close to the podium as a special mark of favour in the packed hall at the Capitol. None of this was by coincidence. India has a strategic design with regard to America, while the US realises that India is very important in its plan to recast the world to better suit itself. The personal chemistry between Modi and Trump, already established in Modi 1.0, is also playing a part.

The still vigorous 78 year-old Trump, in the first year of his second term, is famously thinking about amending the US Constitution so that he can run for a third. If he succeeds, he will be the first to do so, after WWII President Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Roosevelt died in office during his fourth term. The US Constitution was amended thereafter to a two-term limit for presidents.

If India succeeds in signing a trade agreement within this 90 day window with the US it will be the fastest such in its republican history, and augurs well for a more comprehensive FTA to follow. As an opportunity to step into the trade void left by the strained US-China relationship, it is unique, and a chance that India cannot afford to miss.

(1,166 words)

April 22^nd, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee