Two Hundred And Eight  Out Of 243 Seats For the NDA In Bihar Assembly Elections Consolidates Its Power In State And Centre

The June 2024 Lok Sabha election results gave the BJP 240 seats, short of a majority on its own, and occasioned the formation of the NDA government with the support of Nitish Kumar led Bihar, and Chandrababu led Andhra Pradesh. The centre in return poured in investment to strengthen the hands of both allies.

The Opposition, unrealistically, predicted that this troika would last only a short season, and made strenuous efforts to topple the central government. Of course, it could not, and the NDA is going strong nearly a year and a half later.

After this thumping victory in Bihar for the NDA, the stability of the centre till the next general elections in 2029 seems assured as friend and foe acknowledge its import. The last time the NDA won more than 200 seats was in 2010.

An elderly but astute Nitish Kumar will take the oath as Chief Minister of Bihar at the head of his Janata Dal United Party and the NDA for yet another five-year term. This, after 20 years on and off at the helm of Bihar. Any other move will be destabilising.

The Opposition Mahagatbandhan has received a severe drubbing with RJD vastly diminished and Congress practically wiped out. The reasons for the NDA victory are several. When Tejaswi said change is coming, he did not mean a total rout for his own ambitions.

In addition to very effective welfare policies, the female vote for Nitish Babu spoke clearly. His development politics along with help from the centre, including roads, metros, bridges, airport and railway improvements, other infrastructure, have been appreciated. Nitish Kumar has been a clean Chief Minister. There is absolutely, no anti-incumbency seen.

In addition, this win demonstrates a very successful coalition of all the electoral elements in Bihar with the partial exception of the Yadavs and Muslims. This is remarkable, because when a traditional vote bank breaks ranks, the game tends to be over, even for the future.

Within the NDA, the ground work for the elections was  extremely well done including the micro-management, and constituent parties plus influencers like the RSS. None worked at cross purposes.

Despite constant and insidious suggestions that the BJP might want to replace Nitish Kumar as chief minister it is most unlikely. This speculation comes from BJP having won about a dozen more seats than the JDU. The electoral result mathematics this time does not offer sensible alternatives, even if Nitish Kumar wanted to switch sides. Nitish Kumar himself has shown no inclination to do so, but he is an astute politician, and would not take kindly to any move to push him out. But quite apart from the real politics involved, the BJP can be believed that it is not interested in doing any such thing at this time.

A section of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD’s) traditional vote bank too seems to have deserted it, despite many first-time voters. The opprobrium of the ‘Jungle Raj’ associated with the Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi years in power, appears to have drastically brought down the tally of the Tejaswi led RJD. His estranged brother is losing his seat, and so apparently, is he, struggling against the BJP candidate in RJD bastion Raghopur.

The old attitude of issuing threats of violence if the RJD/Mahagatbandhan loses has been prominent during the campaign, and even after the results, with accusations of ‘vote chori’ and allusions to chaos engendered in Bangladesh and Nepal. But this is more wishful thinking.

The erstwhile grim situation in the pre-Nitish Kumar years, has been largely replaced with law and order. Women feel safe. They drive buses and the metro. They can go out after dark. They are happy with the prohibition against alcohol.

And quite possibly, there has been a consolidation of the Hindu vote in the backdrop of an Islamic terrorist attack in New Delhi’s Red Fort area. This could carry over to other forthcoming assembly elections. Some commentary from the redoubtable Union Minister Giriraj Singh of the BJP points towards the hope of a NDA success next in West Bengal.

Further afield, foreign efforts from The US and Europe in addition to the usual Islamic and Communist suspects, have been ongoing to weaken the Modi government. This is unfortunately aided by sections of the Opposition, particularly the Congress Party with nefarious funding from abroad.  There have been moves afoot to engineer regime change, as in Bangladesh and Nepal, and even threaten the life of the prime minister.

This resounding win in Bihar however  reinforces the NDA and underlines its continued popularity and legitimacy. Bihar is an important state, often read alongside Uttar Pradesh as essential for any party that wishes to rule at the centre.

The foreign elements are also upset with India’s rapid economic and military progress, its strategic autonomy, its nationalist, bilateral and multipolar stance in dealings with other countries. The West has been long used to patronising and dictating terms to India before Modi.

India is also a leading light of the G20 or actually G21 now, which it will chair once again in 2026. It is also prominent in BRICS, viewed by the Trump administration as anti-American and the universal use of the US dollar in international trade. India is also a leader of the Global South and very well regarded in Africa, West Asia including Israel, Russia, Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and South America. By 2028, India will become the 3rd largest major economy in the world largely based on its substantial domestic market. This fact makes it difficult to restrict and bully.

The imminent India-US interim trade deal is likely to be inked shortly without further efforts to pressure fresh concessions out of India. Perhaps more so now. India’s determination to punish those responsible for the latest terror attack and conspiracy has also been duly noted by Pakistan, China and globally.

The Trump administration has also been indicating that the punishing tariffs at a total of 50% are likely to be reduced to about 15%. But in the intervening months, India has found and increased its trade with a number of other countries including the UAE and Britain with which countries it already has free trade agreements. It has also stepped up its efforts to collaborate with countries such as France, Russia and Israel in defence matters, and increased its exports of defence equipment since Operation Sindoor attracted a good deal of foreign interest.

India on its part, enjoying a period of very low inflation, is likely to cut its interest rates further by another 25 bps in December 2025. This will boost the domestic economy and spur investment.

Once the trade interim deal is signed with America, the ones in the pipeline with the EU, New Zealand, Oman and increased bilateral business with Japan, South Korea, Nigeria, Brazil, Guyana and others will no doubt go much faster.

Vladimir Putin of Russia is going to visit India on December 5^th. A number of defence and technology deals are likely to be signed in addition to greater people to people cooperation.

Even the restrictions placed on the American H1B visa for IT personnel in the main are being loosened afresh as realisation dawns in America that they cannot do without Indian know-how in this field.

A lot of this international change of heart is to do with the old adage: ‘If you can’t beat them, you had better join them’. In this endeavour, the Trump administration may be rolling back its strictures, but other countries, perhaps more visionary, have been ahead of the curve for some time.

(1260 words)

November 14^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee