The Indo-Russian Silver Lining

As the Western sanctions against Russia begin to bite, it is clear that India stands to gain substantially from its neutral stance going forward. This even as Russia’s special military action in Ukraine enters its fourth week.

President Zelensky, deluded by ambitions of joining both NATO and the EU, egged on by the US and NATO, is under the impression that he might arrive at an acceptable negotiated settlement. He thinks the attrition being experienced by the Russian forces subjected to his NATO given weapons will prevail.

The Russians are very clear that they want a neutral and demilitarised Ukraine and probably one that leans towards Moscow rather than the West. It might want to retain the Black Sea ports as well as much larger tracts of Ukraine than was clear at the beginning of the conflict in defence of the independence of the Donbass region.  

If the end game has begun in terms of the shooting war, there will certainly be much Western discomfort with the terms of the peace to follow. So, for quite some time yet, the sabre-rattling, for example from across the border in Poland, will not stop.

The number of Ukranian refugees are approaching four million. They will pose severe challenges to a Europe not used to anything like it since WWII. Many of these refugees may seek asylum, because their homes and work places have been destroyed.

NATO Europe, convinced that Russia could attack beyond Ukraine, will keep arming itself, and the sanctions on Russia will not be lifted. The nuclear threat will only grow from both sides. The only long-term solution may be to roll back NATO from all the former Soviet protectorates. Europe will have to take the lead in this, because America may prefer to play hard-ball because of its military vested interests, and because of its location across a capacious Atlantic.

The Russians stranded abroad will however be able to make their way back home, despite problems being faced after a sudden cut-off of their money supply because of the sanctions.  

All this turmoil in Europe will have only a limited impact on India. The US has stated, and is on record, that it understands India’s special military relationship with Russia, and is reluctant to impose sanctions for its importation of the portable S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. This, even though it sanctioned NATO member Turkey for the same purchase.

India has not only placed orders for several batteries of the S400, but is in talks to purchase the S500 Prometheus systems as well. These missile shields are considered to be the best in the world as present.

There are a number of other ongoing military collaborations with Russia, for the manufacture of nuclear submarines, fighter aircraft, India’s aircraft carrier programme, its missile programmes, and so on. This is in addition to a strong impetus given to India’s atmanirbhar hardware manufacturing in defence, and inclusive of electronics, IT, cyber-jockeying, AI - all interconnected in today’s security calculus.  

On the other hand, India’s criticality as a US partner in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region, bilaterally, and as a member of QUAD has great significance.

India is seen as the only large military power that can be seen as a counter to Chinese ambitions in the region. This is naturally of paramount consideration for an American public opinion wary of direct involvement in theatres far away from its own shores. The Vietnam and Korean wars of a previous generation are not forgotten, let alone the recent inconclusive involvements in Iraq and Afghanistan. Supplying military equipment is one thing, but getting involved with nuclear weaponised powers with more body bags streaming back home will destroy any American political leadership.

Such complex and overlapping concerns in the current geopolitical situation must be carefully weighed, and the responses calibrated on both sides. But it also means greater strategic autonomy for a nuclear weaponised India to suit its own best purpose and self-interest, without any effective Western bullying.

India is in the process of importing Russian crude oil at a nearly 30% discount, and payable in Rupees. This even as Europe has not banned the importation of Russian oil and gas. The US has now banned its own, relatively slight, imports of Russian oil and gas, after failing to persuade its European allies to do likewise. NATO may be a long-standing military alliance, but it has grown selective even in the European theatre.

This effectively means that Russia’s main export, apart from military equipment, is not curtailed. There will, no doubt, be shipping, logistic and payment pipeline difficulties because of the sanctions, but it may end up in generating new and competitive ecosystems not dominated by America and the Western Alliance.

 Russia has suggested Indian pharmaceutical companies can fill the void caused in its medicine requirements also sanctioned by the West. India is already exporting large quantities of wheat to Europe and elsewhere to take advantage of the disruptions from Ukraine.

India has had long-standing, reliable, and warm ties in military equipment and cooperation with first the USSR, and now Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The jointly developed BrahMos missiles are acknowledged as some of the deadliest in that space.

It is no wonder that a host of countries, including Taiwan, itself under considerable threat from China, want to buy it in different configurations for use in land, sea and air.

The irony of the global changes occasioned by the warfare in Ukraine is that our other diversified suppliers of military equipment, such as France and Israel are more or less in the US/NATO and Western Alliance camp. Will they be able to extend hearty cooperation in a pinch, if the US does not want them to?

QUAD partners Australia and Japan are also arraigned against Russia. So, is the QUAD, already differentiated from the AUKUS military alliance, now dead in the water?

Perhaps such extreme exigencies may not occur at this time, but recent Western policies and their pointed insularity do give India a lot of food for thought. If we go to war with China and Pakistan we may well be on our own. Can Russia stand by us in a conflict with China? If any country has the gumption to do so, it is probably Putin’s Russia. On the other hand, could Russia engineer a rapprochement between India and China? Why does the Chinese foreign minister want to visit India despite the standoff along the LoC?  

Meanwhile, oil prices have begun to stabilise at around $ 80 a barrel, down from a dizzying $118, even as Saudi Arabia has indicated it could sell to China in Yuan. The dominance of the US dollar as the pole currency is being altered by recent circumstances.  

Russia is determined to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine flying in the face of immense pressure and the proxy war from the EU, NATO, America, and the broader Western allies.

China is being warned by America that there will be consequences imposed because of its neutrality, moves to help Russia with purchases of crude oil, loans, a Yuan-Ruble platform, Chinese banking to nullify the effects of an exclusion from the SWIFT banking system.

China may not budge, but will have to walk the diplomatic tight-rope because its trade with the West is worth more than ten times its trade with Russia.

 Interestingly, Russia’s Burger King franchisee has refused to stop operations despite advice from the parent company in the US. Russia has legitimised patent and copyright piracy, and is in the process of seizing Western assets including over $ 10 billion worth of leased aircraft.

This proxy war may not go all that well for the West, anymore than the shooting war is going for Zelensky and his beleaguered countrymen.  

(1,289 words)

March 19^th, 2022

For: Firstpost

Gautam Mukherjee