Modi At 74 Marks Three Decades At The Top

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the first top leader of enduring durability who has come from humble beginnings. He is the first prime minister to emerge from state leadership ever in India’s history after independence. Once a provincial leader, Narendra Modi burst onto the sophisticated political constructs at the centre with the first thumping majority in 30 years. This, for himself, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), that he heads.

Over the decade from 2014 to 2024, he has emerged as a charismatic, respected, and visionary global leader, much sought after in international fora including BRICS, ASEAN and many others.

If India is invited routinely to the G-7 gatherings as a guest, it is due in no small measure to Modi’s stature. The G-7 is reckoned to be the gathering of the most powerful countries in the world, including all five of the permanent UNSC countries who possess a veto.

Modi is counted as the leader not only of an India soon to become the 3^rd largest major economy in the world, behind only the United States and China, but also as a sponsor of the Global South. During the year-long leadership of the G-20 that India enjoyed recently, Modi was instrumental in bringing in the countries of the African Union, more than 50 in number, into the G-20. And this, with unanimous backing from the others. The G-20 became G-21 thereafter, with a view to creating a more equitable world.

While the G-21 grows in importance, the influence of the UN and its general assembly has waned, due to factionalism, an overweening influence of China, financial problems, and other complications.

The elevated stature for Narendra Modi has come, unlike so many others from the emerging economies or indeed the dominant West, without benefit of an expensive Western education, or the backing of a rich and influential family.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi marks his 74^th birthday today with fifteen years as CM of Gujarat, and a decade as PM at the centre, all the while without the slightest taint of corruption. This, is itself is a rarity in the world of politics. He has consistently enjoyed popularity ratings in the 70 plus percentile, both while at state, and at the centre. This is a phenomenon perhaps no other global politician has matched.

Mao, Castro and Stalin, may have claimed such levels of popularity, or even higher, but they did not operate in or run democracies. Their God-like personality cults were manufactured by their own state machines.

On his birthday today, Prime Minister Modi is working hard as usual. He is inaugurating 26 lakh PM Awas Yojana houses at the slum area of Gadakana in Bhubaneshwar, Odisha. Odisha has recently elected the BJP to rule the state. After interacting with some of the beneficiaries there at Gadakana, he will go to the Janata Maidan in the city to officially launch the Subhadra Yojana, under which Rs.10,000 will be given to over 1 crore poor women every year, in two equal instalments, for a period of five years.

The marked difference in this as well as all the welfare schemes launched during the Modi decade at the centre, is the phenomenon of direct benefit transfer, digitally, into millions of newly created bank accounts. A revolution has taken place in banking the unbanked, and the consequent removal of middlemen and rent collectors.

In addition, Prime Minister Modi will unveil railway projects worth Rs 2,871 crores and highway infrastructure projects worth Rs 1,000 crores today.

 Prime Minister Modi and his team, mainly National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and his Minister for External Affairs S Jaishankar are said to be working hard behind the scenes to bring about an end to the Ukraine-Russia War. Other interlocuters suggested by Russian President Vladimir Putin are Chinese President Xi Jinping, his staunch ally, and current chair of the G-21, the Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. But of the three heads of government, Prime Minister Modi enjoys the trust and backing of both sides, including President Joe Biden of America and Vlodymyr Zelinsky of Ukraine. Bringing about a cessation of hostilities in Europe will have profound consequences for the whole world.

In addition, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar announced that 75% of the border disputes with China have been resolved, with every expectation that the 25% remaining issues along the LaC will also be shortly resolved. This sounds near miraculous given the border skirmishes at Galwan and Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang area. This favourable development has been corroborated by the Chinese as well. There is an anticipation that the remaining 25% of the border issues that China calls legacy issues from the time of the UPA government, including the encroachment within Indian territory in the Depsang Plateau, may be resolved, by the time Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping meet at the BRICS Summit in October 2024.

Easing of border tensions with China will be nothing short of a diplomatic breakthrough, clearing the way to renewed engagement on multiple issues between India and China. It will also weaken the Pakistani threat and levels of terrorism it sponsors against India.

The India-China standoff at the LaC has vitiated the atmosphere for the last decade, eroding trust between the two countries, and resulting in other powers exploiting the situation for their benefit.

With regard to China, many issues remain, of course, such as its attempt to dominate the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the immediate areas around peninsular India. There is also the belligerence displayed by China in the East and South China Seas, and towards Taiwan. The attempt to dominate most of South East Asia on a near unilateral basis is also problematic. A change of policy may now be in the works, because China is in considerable economic trouble.

However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent behind the scenes diplomatic initiatives with China may result in enhanced and visionary cooperation between India, China, and Russia, rewriting some aspects of geopolitics and multilateralism.

One is already mooted - an initiative in Space to build a nuclear power plant on the moon for a future human lunar colony. Will North Korea join in too?

An easing of India-China tension will not only increase Mr. Modi’s and India’s stature in the world, but afford Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government greater leverage in negotiating with America and the West over various issues. These include trade, defence cooperation and technology transfer. It might also reduce pressure and the subversion from the Western deep state to weaken Modi’s hold on power, and isolate Russia and China from India.

Other international initiatives include the efforts to create new transport corridors to Europe via West Asia as well as Iran and Russia. These promise greater ease of doing business, despite temporary setbacks from the Israel-Gaza War, the troubles from Houthi/Somali pirate attacks in the Red Sea, and the bottlenecks at the Suez Canal. This after a ramping up of trade cooperation with the UAE, Israel, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt with some free trade agreements amongst them.

A number of free trade agreements (FTAs) are in the works in Europe, and one with non- EU Europe that includes Switzerland, has already been concluded.

Prime Minister Modi’s 74^th birthday coincides with 100 days of Modi 3.0 and the work that is ongoing. The continuity of three consecutive terms has provided stability and a commendable GDP growth rate of around 7% per annum. Infrastructure development, defence, aatmanirbhar  armaments manufacturing, with exports to the US, Armenia, the Philippines. There are new initiatives in electronics manufacture under the China plus one programme, electronic chip-making with huge domestic and export potential. More development of the automotive sector, improvement in agricultural practices, massive infrastructure development, indigenous nuclear power plants. These are just some of the benefits of the Modi decade as well as the 100 days.

Work being done on the Wakf Bill, the Uniform or Secular Civil Code, progress towards ‘one nation, one election’, are all pathbreaking in nature and will all see the light of day during this term till 2029.

There is an enormous amount that needs to be tackled yet. The reform of the overburdened judiciary is a case in point.

Religious tourism, probably the biggest driver of all in India, has been set alight by the transformation of Ayodhya which is receiving many more visitors than Varanasi now. Mathura, Ujjain, the Char Dhams, Vaishnodevi, the ongoing renovations at Varanasi, are all initiated for the first time.  

The endless visionary aspects of Prime Minister Narendra Modi are far ahead of his predecessors in the job. Combined with his extraordinary and single-minded appetite for work, it makes for an unstoppable combination. For the first time, most slogans, it is seen, turn into reality. It is entirely credible that India will be a prosperous developed country of nearly 1.7 billion souls by 2047, our centenary year. Our potential will be realised.

If today, our time has come to restore India to the glory it once had in ancient times, there is no better person to see it on its way. We are fortunate to have such a selfless and dedicated leader. India, that is Bharat, owes Narendra Modi a debt of gratitude.

(1537 words)

September 17^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Modi Goes Shopping For LNG From Brunei, Semiconductors From Singapore

Prime Minister Narendra Modi supported by officials of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, have just undertaken a couple of strategic bilateral visits. These are designed to increase its profile in China’s backyard even as it has been trying to dominate and bully the ASEAN region, the countries bordering the East and South China Sea and indeed farther afield. And, of course, they hold great potential for an increase in bilateral trade and cooperation.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been the first Indian head of government to visit the strategically located and oil rich island of Brunei to boost bilateral ties and economic activity. The Indian expatriate and ethnic community were greatly enthused by the short visit, and Sultan Haji Hassanal Bolkiah, 29^th in his line of rulers, laid out a red-carpet welcome second to none.

This despite Borneo’s location in the Malay Archipelago, southeast of the Malay Peninsula, and southwest of the Philippines. It is therefore not at all far from China and the South China Sea, risking a possible menace from China for warming up towards India.

Borneo is however, very close to the Western powers, and has nothing to fear in waters regularly patrolled by the US Navy. India, as a member of QUAD, and under its Act East Policy, is upgrading its neglected relationship with the island nation.  

A new chancery was inaugurated at the Indian High Commission, located near the US Embassy, on this 40^th anniversary of diplomatic relations between India and Brunei.

News reports state that the moderate Islamic nation of Borneo and India have agreed to engage in the areas of Defence, Space, and long-term supply of LNG to India. India currently imports a lot of its long-term supplies of LNG from Qatar.

A regular flight between the Borneo capital of Bandar Seri Begawan and Chennai was also announced.

 Prime Minister Modi went to Singapore next, the tiny Asian country with first world standards, on a two-day visit. Singapore is a much more familiar destination for our prime minister, and there have been steady bilateral visits from both sides over the years. Singapore has participated in the Malabar military exercises with India, alongside Japan and Australia. In addition, Singapore and India conduct another naval exercise bilaterally, called SIMBEX, held on a regular basis. All this, even though it also enjoys a good relationship with China. Singapore is a major transshipment port for China, amongst other things.

Again, like Borneo, there is a large, historically present ethnic Indian community in Singapore, in addition to modern residencies, comings and goings.  Indians like to invest in Singapore real-estate, Indian students go there for secondary and higher education, renowned as it is for its high academic standards, discipline, safety, and strong law and order matrix. Singapore is also favoured as a regional HQ for a large number of US and European companies.

Prime Minister Modi met with his counterpart Prime Minister Lawrence Wong. President Tharman Shanmugaratnam (of ethnic Indian or Sri Lankan origin from the days of British indentured labour, after the abolition of slavery, into then Malaya), Senior Minister Hsien Loong and Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong. He has also met with leading members of the business community and the Indian diaspora.

Singapore citizens trace their ancestry mainly to Malaysia, China, and India, going back to the Malayan rubber plantation days of the British Empire.

Singapore is already India’s largest trading partner in Asia, with a trade value of $ 36.6 billion, and is a key partner in its ‘Act East’ Policy. In 2023, Singapore was the largest FDI investor in India, at $ 11.77 billion.

The two prime ministers, Modi and Wong, visited a leading Singaporean company, AEM Holdings Ltd., in the semiconductors and electronics sector, and discussed collaboration in this high-technology area.

During the visit, the two countries raised their bilateral cooperation to a ‘comprehensive strategic partnership’. This as an upgrade of the existing Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA),  there as of June 2005, which eliminated tariffs on 81% of Singapore exports to India.

The two countries signed four MoUs now, including one on collaboration in the Semiconductor Industry. The other three were to do with Educational Cooperation and Skill Development, in the field of Health and Medicine, and in the rapidly growing field of Digital Technologies.

Singapore had earlier agreed to be a prime-mover in promoting the involvement of India in the ASEAN countries, where China is most prominent.

Singapore is part of the global semiconductor value chain and is keen to invest in India to develop semiconductor clusters, as well as develop Indian talent in design and manufacturing. India, on its part is equally enthusiastic to grow this trillion-dollar opportunity along with its emerging electronic chip industry.

(786 words)

September 5^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

Bottom Of Pyramid Leg Up  Jan Dhan Yojana Completes 10 years With 54 Crore Accounts

 It is the 10^th anniversary of the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), programme. It was announced by the prime minister from the ramparts of Red Fort on 15^th August 2014. As a scheme for financial inclusion and gradual financial literacy amongst people who were not allowed to own bank accounts before its advent, it is nothing short of revolutionary. It is designed to impart dignity to, and  empower the unbanked poor. It has, in practice, particularly led to the enthusiastic use of grass-roots women entrepreneurs. They have taken to the formal banking system in a big way. Because of their sense of financial responsibility/discipline, in their borrowing and payback habits,  they have been one of its biggest beneficiaries.

One could open a Jan Dhan Account, if necessary, with zero balance, no questions asked. All the public sector unit (PSU) banks participated in mission mode, responding to the call from the prime minister. Lakhs of accounts were opened in a single day under the programme when it was first introduced.

Once the bank accounts were open, they offered overdrafts and loans in due course to people with no collateral or references beyond their own track record.

After a decade of operations, there are 53.13 crore accounts, with Rs. 2,31,000 crores deposited in them. Some 55.6% of them are owned by women who did not need a father, a brother, a husband or a reference to open one. The average balance in these accounts is now Rs. 4,300 odd. Two-thirds of all the accounts are in rural and semi-urban areas according to the Ministry of Finance.

The overall financial inclusion rate, defined by owning and using a proper bank account, has gone up from 25% of the adult population in 2008, to 80% today. This achievement in just a decade is considered phenomenal, given that the adult population today is more than a billion people.

These plain savings accounts have been used, over the decade, for direct benefit transfers from the government without leakages caused by the middlemen of the past. They were used to distribute financial assistance during Covid. They are used for subsidies given under the PM-KISAN programme, for disbursing wages under MGNREGA. They are used in providing life and health insurance covers free of charge by the government.

The processes used are vastly aided by the government induced digital revolution of the last few years, RU Pay debit cards, some 36 crores of them were issued to these account holders. UPI transactions have shot through the roof, with over Rs. 13,000 crores in transactions. The ubiquitous Aadhar Card for identity verification is linked to the widespread use of mobile phones.

A number of other government programmes, such as MUDRA loans for the MSME Sector use the Jan Dhan accounts as the basis for transactions.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi points out that the Congress’ Indira Gandhi led government nationalised many banks, in the name of socialism, and ostensibly to help the poor, but the target audience remained unbanked for decades yet.

This NDA government, and the prime minister, are well-aware that some 80% of all employment in India is in the informal sector, with low wages, and inadequate benefits. However, there is a great aspiration to join the formal employment sector. The government is therefore laying great and fresh emphasis on apprenticeship and skilling, with an outlay of over Rs. 2 trillion in the recent union budget of July 2024. The money will provide internship funds and other incentives to both prospective employers and aspirants to formal sector jobs. These new initiatives, again in tandem with the Jan Dhan Yojana, are yeoman efforts to address the needs of those at the bottom of the pyramid.

The fact that the Jan Dhan Yojana is such a roaring success is admired and studied by other governments in various parts of the world. The out-of-the-box thinking and digitisation revolution that has made its success possible is enabling India to catch up to the developed West in many other ways too. The sheer numbers of people involved would make any manual process take decades, but implementing it via a biometric enabled identity card like Aadhar was the key.

That too was an early revolution under the Modi regime, leveraging India’s prowess  in IT led by the current Infosys Non-Executive Chairman Nandan Nilekani. It should not be overlooked that Nilekani has just coined a new term ‘Fininternet’, meaning a marriage of  real-time financial information from multiple sources and parameters, and the world-wide web. Why? For better informed decision-making, of course. How many Jan Dhan Yojana sophisticates, once the ignored, will use it when it comes?

(771 words)

August 29^th, 2024

For: Firstpost, News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Perversity Of The Bhadralok Writ Large In Whataboutery

If it wasn’t for some quick student intervention, in support of outraged doctors and medical support staff,  the equally fast attempt at a cover up would probably have worked. Call it the Justice For Abhaya Movement.

The Kolkata intelligentsia, the vaunted and storied bhadralok, has lost its nerve in the face of lathi charges and tear gas. It sold out to the Mamata Banerjee government a decade ago and to the Communists who ruled for 34 years before that. The spine of the bhadralok, at the vanguard of leadership and reform in the 19^th century is broken.

So in the beginning of this protest it maintained a frightened silence and made only anodyne statements  days later carefully vetted to avoid giving offence to Mamata Banerjee and her cabinet. Perhaps they are more afraid of the TMC goon squads and the violence they can unleash.  They are probably wise to cower under the circumstances. Certainly, they are right to not expect any help or protection from the West Bengal police if they criticise the government or the party.

The Bengal BJP however is trying its best to attack the government via mega protest rallies. It is being stopped 4 km before  they can reach Swasthya Bhavan or the health ministry.

The handling of the latest ghastly rape and murder in Kolkata by the West Bengal police has shocked the whole nation in its blatant effort to destroy evidence, disturb the crime site, and protect the perpetrators.

But then, it was just as casual in its handling of the Sandeshkhali rapes of 2024 which they blamed on the BJP, the Hanskhali rape of 2022, the Kamduni gang-rapes of 2013 blamed on the Communists, the Park Street rape of 2012 where the victim was called a prostitute. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee herself set the stage, with her bizarre if self- serving remarks in each instance, and the state police that reports to her, took their cue from it. But this time, they might, or might not, be able to keep control.

The swaggering young principal of the R G Kar Medical College, Dr Sandip Ghosh, is the main villain of the piece. He  was grilled by the CBI. Ghosh, familiar with cases like this from earlier in his career, is puffed up with state government backing. He tried to pass it off as a suicide at first. He might have got away with it by brow-beating the poor parents and withholding the broken body till they caved in. But things spiralled up rapidly.

 The other doctors and medical staff, and not just in this establishment, but from all over Kolkata, West Bengal, and elsewhere in the country, the students in Kolkata and nationally, the outraged social media, the Calcutta High Court that forced the state government to hand over investigations to the CBI, the Supreme Court that took suo moto notice of the savage gang rape, torture, and murder all played their part. The relentless media coverage also did its best to prevent the cover up and secure justice for the victim.

After Dr Sandip Ghosh stepped down, the other senior doctors at the college were initially retained to take his place, but were swept out and transferred to other government state hospitals in Kolkata, four of them in all, including the head of the department of Chest Medicine, the victim’s department, at the insistence of the student protesters. The swelling discontent is now asking for the resignation of Mamata Banerjee.

 The savage treatment meted out to a 31 year-old post-graduate trainee woman doctor, an only child from a poor family, in a leading Kolkata government hospital, was reminiscent in its brutality and callousness to the Nirbhaya gang rape, torture and murder in New Delhi more a decade ago in 2012. It is as if nothing has changed between Nirbhaya and Abhaya despite tightening of the rape laws.

But the Kolkata Bhadralok that should have jumped into the fray with fierce condemnation, were sorely wanting. West Bengal with its revered Durga Puja and Kali Puja coming up shortly and its pretensions to being cultured, was  once thought to be most respectful of women. But, if that ever existed in reality, it clearly does not exist now. The bhadralok, vociferous in support of various TMC initiatives, has nothing much to say in this instance. Instead, it is in agreement with the TMC line that horrible rapes followed by murders take place regularly in other states too. They are indeed unfortunate and tragic, but the West Bengal government and its police department were being singled out and unfairly targeted. Much of the opposition in the INDI Alliance echoed these sentiments too. On social media they point out the recent rape and murder in Dehradun. They are willing to wear black bands.

To compound the lack of empathy in most cases, some said the unfortunate victim must have done something to deserve it. She was allegedly about to expose corruption involving medicines, hospital beds, sale of cadavers, and this had angered a lot of people. Was she blackmailing some people? What was she doing in the conference room so late at night? Why had she accepted night shift work at all?

The students and fellow doctors and the odd outraged citizen protested, of course, and were threatened roundly by the TMC goons for their trouble. TMC ministers threatened to sack the protesting doctors and dock their pay till the Supreme Court said they will not be penalised.  One former female TMC member of parliament was threatened with rape online for supporting the protests. A twelve-year old boy was arrested for wishing harm to the chief minister.  Mamata Banerjee is also the home minister with the police reporting directly to her.

The police did such a clumsy cover up job that the three judge Supreme Court bench, including the CJI, holding live televised hearings of the proceedings was appalled. Why, for instance, was the FIR filed, not by the medical college, but the hapless father of the victim, after the post-mortem was conducted? Other reports say the FIR was filed some hours after the hurried cremation of the unfortunate victim.

The question in everyone’s mind is why is Mamata Banerjee and the TMC so keen to cover-up this affair? Why was the dissenting TMC functionary who spoke in favour of the victim hauled up? What was going on in RG Kar Medical College that the victim was likely to have exposed?

How many rapists and abusers were involved, and who are they, in addition to the sole person arrested, a totally remorseless Sanjoy Roy, who was apparently part of the erstwhile principal Dr Sandip Ghosh’s security team. He was allowed to live in the adjacent police barracks. This, even though he was only a volunteer and general tout.  Roy is said to be mentally disturbed and perverse, with a smart phone full of pornography. He was allegedly a frequent visitor to the Kolkata red-light district of Sonagachhi. Were the other perpetrators doctors too? Sanjoy Roy is not talking.

The CBI has submitted its findings in a sealed cover to the Supreme Court (SC), and the hearings are ongoing. However not only the Kolkata police but the West Bengal government has been criticised by the SC.

The West Bengal government is being represented by Senior Counsel Kapil Sibal and Abhishek Manu Singhvi, while the CBI is represented by Solicitor General Tushar Mehta.

The SC has now mandated that the CRPF will guard the RG Kar Medical College in addition to the Kolkata police going forward. The failure of law and order, a state subject, is clearly pointed towards. Right now, the Rapid Action Force has been brought in to control the protests.

Just like in Bangladesh, where the intelligentsia was in support of the Awami League and the erstwhile government of Sheikh Hasina, the Kolkata bhadralok is highly compromised.  As they abdicated all responsibility in terms of a vocal presence, it was up to the students and opposition BNP supported by the Islamists. It was they who took the  allegedly undemocratic Sheikh Hasina government down - with crucial help from the Bangladesh Army after the police failed the protestors. Will this volatile situation in Kolkata escalate into a popular revolt against the Mamata Banerjee government? It will surely be supported by the Bengal BJP which is the principal opposition. Meanwhile the crack downs against all protests continue while questions about democracy are raised, not by the bhadralok, but the media.

(1,412 words)

August 22^nd 2024

For: Squirrels.in

Gautam Mukherjee

 

 

Extradition Of Sheikh Hasina To Bangladesh Is Not Likely

While two or three murder, abduction, torture, genocide etc. charges against Sheikh Hasina have sprouted since well after her ouster from power and safe passage to India, they hardly qualify as legal challenges. They do not, as they stand, hold up under universal ‘burden of proof’ criteria. Or in terms of the much more pedestrian extradition treaty of 2013, between India and Bangladesh. Sheikh Hasina was deposed nearly a fortnight ago, on August 5th.

Sheikh Hasina was air-lifted to India, first to Assam, and then to near New Delhi, along with her family, in Bangladesh military air transports. She was accompanied by an escort of Bangladesh military personnel, and set flight after permission was obtained via the Indian ambassador to Dhaka and India’s external affairs ministry. The Bangladeshi military personnel along with their aeroplane left the Hindon Airbase near the capital, after a day, leaving Sheikh Hasina and her family behind in India.  

The nature of Sheikh Hasina’s departure from Bangladesh in a bloodless coup engineered by the Bangladesh military, suggests, as in other such circumstances, immunity from subsequent prosecution, probably in return for her immediate resignation.

Sheikh Hasina was the elected head of the Bangladesh government, whereas the current government is nominated by the military. Her present refuge in India is based on a long history of good relations with India. However, she is here temporarily, and has not sought either asylum or political refugee status.

Meanwhile, India is bracing for the possibility of a large influx of Bangladeshi Hindu refugees and other people from her Awami League Party that are facing hostility in Bangladesh. India is maintaining a vigil on the border and working with the current Bangladeshi government to stabilise the situation.

India is already host to crores of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants that have arrived over the years. They have not been pushed back in the interest of good neighbourly relations with Sheikh Hasina’s government. These include the dangerous and disruptive Rohingyas, originally from Myanmar. However, India’s attitude to harbouring all these Bangladeshi illegals could change, based on the behaviour and manifest attitude of the new government.

The murder and other charges against Sheikh Hasina were posted since her departure, mostly by affected citizens. All of them happened after she left the country, and could be interpreted as an afterthought. The Bangladeshi courts themselves are yet to admit any of these cases, let alone consider them.

The erstwhile Chief Justice of Bangladesh was also ousted and replaced through the action of a revolutionary mob. The current judiciary will be struggling to maintain its autonomy in the presently charged atmosphere.

The 2013 extradition treaty with Bangladesh was hardly designed to extradite former heads of state. It was a construct put together to apprehend mostly convicted criminals from India or Bangladesh who might have run away across the border.  How often it has been used is another question, given the many illegals found in all parts of India including the national capital. These illegals work as domestic helpers, construction workers, and at other humble jobs. Unfortunately, they also contribute to a fifth column, from those that are radicalised, to the criminal, flesh and drug trading cohorts, and the terrorist/rioting element. They have been caught more than once engaged in such practices.  

A reported three hundred people were killed in the recent unrest leading up to Sheikh Hasina’s resignation. This was hurriedly forced upon her by the Chief of the Bangladesh Army in person. However, these casualty numbers include a number of police and other security personnel, ordinary citizens, students, party officials and workers from the Awami League and BNP, people on both sides of the conflict. There was also extensive arson, illegal destruction of government property and monuments, private property, mob-lynchings, before and after the fall of the Awami League government.

Post the ouster, there was wilful slaughter of Awami League personnel, of minorities, particularly Hindus who were said to be backing the Awami League, rape and other atrocities. All this was largely unchecked by the Bangladesh security forces. These constitute human rights violations on the grand scale. The same sort of thing that the new mob accuses Sheikh Hasina and her people of.

However, one of the cases filed relates to an alleged abduction way back in 2015.None of them involve Sheikh Hasina personally, though the deaths and other actions have been attributed to her.

The interim government, cobbled together after Sheikh Hasina’s departure, is unelected, inexperienced, and no deadline has been announced for fresh elections. Some reports indicate that this unelected government may continue for a prolonged period.

The head of the advisory government is the 83 year-old Muhammad Yunus, a Nobel Laureate for his work with the Grameen Bank, a micro-lending institution. Yunus has come back from exile in Paris as he was not in favour with the Hasina government. He also faced a number of corruption charges.  

Does this largely advisory and de facto government, headed by Yunus and propped up by the Bangladesh Army, have the legitimate authority to conduct the affairs of state, let alone seek Sheikh Hasina’s extradition?

The de facto foreign minister Mohammed Touhid Hossain said on August 15^th, 2024 said his government will soon decide on the demand for Sheikh Hasina’s extradition based on inputs from its home and law ministers.

The students, central to the quota stir, have already announced they will be forming a political party of their own, to get away from the bipolarity of the Awami League and the Islamist backed BNP. So, this implies elections will be held eventually, or at least the students think so.

Hindus still constitute about 8% of Bangladesh’s 170 million population, down from nearly 20% at Partition in 1947. Their decline in numbers has been called a ‘drip-drip genocide’ by a commentator. Muhammad Yunus has assured India and the community of their safety. But more time must go by, amidst reports of blackmail and demands for extortion money to ensure their self-same safety.

The Bangladesh economy which was doing well under Sheikh Hasina must be stabilised by the new government. The challenge is to not descend in chaos in the name of religious fundamentalism, or fall under the sway of foreign entities keen on dominating in Bangladesh. It is important for Bangladesh to maintain cordial relations with nuclear weaponised India next door for the sake of its very economy and security. It would be well advised not to do anything provocative vis a vis India at the instigation of foreign agencies.

Demanding the extradition of Sheikh Hasina will not be acceded to by India. It is shortly, perhaps as early as the end of this fiscal, to become the 3^rd largest major economy in the world. India won’t buckle to Bangladeshi pressure. Souring of relations with India may be music to Chinese and Pakistani ears, but is not in the best interests of Bangladesh itself.

(1,145 words)

August 17^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Who Is The Fascist In Germany?

What is going on in Germany now is deeply ironic, given the left-leaning German coalition government’s penchant for criticising India at every turn. It does so, supported by its leftist media like Der Spiegel and DW, using slanted, prejudiced, badly-researched, false, and spurious information.

It calls India out on its alleged communalism, human-rights violations, the ‘occupation of Kashmir’, repression of Khalistanis, Hindu majoritarianism, persecution of minorities, including Christians and Muslims. They could not find a way to criticise India’s economic handling, because it will very soon overtake Germany, growing as it is, at a good rate of 7% p.a. compared to Germany’s 0.2%.

You would be forgiven to assume that Germany must be a paragon of virtue. And yet, it is clear that it cannot stomach criticism coming its own way. It cracks down just like the former Nazi fascists it accuses the Far-Right of admiring.

Nevertheless, the German left, government and media alike, tend to believe their own lies. It is seen they do not listen to our protests or mend their ways. Left-run Germany also does not care for India’s neutral stance on the Ukraine War, and indeed its close bilateral relationship with Russia.

So much so, that Germany has been reluctant to share high technology for submarines with India. This has changed now because of its economic desperation.  

Now Germany has taken a U turn and is very keen to collaborate with us on the submarines, despite a very close relationship with China, its largest trading partner. Which, of course, probably has something to do with the supercilious  anti-India stance in the first place.

On the other hand, highly admired German luxury cars are sold widely in India and are much in demand.

While Olaf Scholz is Chancellor now, and visited India recently during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, the four earlier terms of arch-leftist Angela Merkel were anti-Indian too. At the same time Germany’s trade with China boomed, albeit in China’s favour.

Merkel also let in millions of refugees from war-torn Syria, partially to address a labour shortage for the menial jobs. So, in a very real sense, it is the excesses of the long-serving Leftist governments that have given rise to the Right today.

Inevitably, the immigrants are now asserting themselves. Many have moved up the ladder from the menial jobs. Ones shortly off the boat are more rough and ready. They assert their Islamic identity quite vigorously, even violently, to the dismay of the local White population.

And yet, its Right Wing wants the Americans out and not just the immigrants, and friendship with Russia in its place. Perhaps it is they, now being persecuted by their own government, who understand the shape of the future rather better. Germany has been suffering, more than others, with high gas prices, after being forced by  an outdated NATO to cut off the Russian gas, for example.

The latest move of this left-liberal German government is to crack down on the anti-immigrant, anti-refugee, and anti-minority movement, mostly amongst growing numbers of White Germans.

Suddenly, two days ago, the government acted. It caused a sensation in the international media, when it shut down a right wing magazine, calling it anti-semitic to boot. It conducted fascist-style raids to close down the print, online and film organisation and ban its operations. It was blatant state-sponsored censorship. 

Earlier the German government, made up of three left-leaning parties, also froze the bank accounts of people who donated money to any group the government declared to be ‘far right’.  

The causes for the crack-down are probably deeper. The German Federal Government’s Interior Ministry, is rattled by an upswing in support for the Right Wing political party Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD). That is why it raided and shut down the most influential right wing Compact Magazine. It also shut down its associated film production company Conspect Film.

This action, which may be held illegal by the courts, also flies in the face of Germany’s ‘counterspeech doctrine’ that was meant to allow contrary viewpoints in the interests of democracy.

Raids were conducted at the offices and homes of Compact functionaries to confiscate assets and evidence.

Compact Magazine had a print run of 40,000 copies and a much larger online following of around 350,000. Justifying the closure, Interior Minister Nancy Faesar called Compact a ‘Mouthpiece of the far-right extremist scene’.

Compact was cited as a ‘nexus’ for various right wing extremist and xenophobic groups including not only the very popular AfD, but also the Pegida and Identitarian movements. AfD came second in the European parliamentary elections recently and ran at first place in most of the East German states. So it cannot be dismissed as irrelevant from the political landscape.

While the German government cited threats to the constitution by closing down and banning Compact and Conspect, it actually has an Article 5 that guarantees freedom of speech, expression, and opinion to its citizens.

How bogus rankings can be, is illustrated by the 2008 Freedom in the World  report by the US funded Freedom House  that gave Germany a score of ‘1’, the best possible, for both political rights and civil liberties. The German press freedom index number for 2024 was 83.84, ranking it 10^th globally.

The reason for banning and shutting down Compact now is thought to be because German federal elections are coming up soon and the Left Wing wants to weaken AfD.

Editor-in-chief Jurgen Elsasser of the erstwhile monthly Compact magazine liked to irk the government by using slogans like ‘Americans go home’ and ‘Friendship with Russia’ at events of the far right.  

The shut-down and ban is unlikely to quell the unhappiness of the general public with the way the leftist governments have been handling things, and their lacklustre performance. It may seem decisive now but it could come back to haunt them.

(972 words)

July 18^th, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Reliance Jio Bharti Airtel and Now Adani Enterprises Compete To Roll Out 5G

Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have completed an All-India rollout of 5G networks. They have cumulatively aggregated over 100 million 5G customers according to Julian Gorman Head of Asia Pacific (APAC), GSMA. Gorman was speaking at the 7^th edition of the ETTelecom 5G/6G Congress 2024 held in March at London. Both Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel have recently raised their rates, cartel-fashion, in an effort to be profitable.

The potential number of users in a country of 1.4 billion plus people is the great attraction. There are more than a billion phones in use already (1.18 billion per 2021 data). And a large proportion, even at the bottom of the pyramid, are smart phones, used at a minimum for entertainment streaming and the like. 5G will work faster and better. The gross revenue from the telecom industry was Rs 64, 801 crores ($8.74 billion) in the first quarter of FY 22 as per government data from then. At least another 500 million new internet users will be added in India in the five years from 2022 to 2027.

The prospects have recently lured the Adani Group also into the fray. This, after  it spent time denying that it intended to do so.

However, even with three big contenders, the competition is likely to intensify, and might grow uncomfortable. The pie is big enough to go around, and there is no absolute necessity to step on each other’s toes. Having said that, it will have to be a discovery process in tier 2,3, and 4 cities, even as jostling each other in the metro cities could benefit the consumer, if not the provider. The government will gain from further spectrum sales. Adani has only bought limited spectrum so far for its operations in Gujarat, and not enough to roll out a consumer foray.

Rural India too will be served much better than before, probably using satellite linkages, the cost of which will have to be absorbed by the companies till the  consumer numbers are large enough and viably clustered.

The other weak player in the current mix in India is Vodafone Idea (VI), back from the dead, but still ailing.  VI has succeeded in only rolling out a network in four circles it operates in, with the four vendors there. This is a minimum rollout obligation (MRO), to stay in the game, even though Vodafone Idea has not succeeded in rolling out a commercial network as yet.

 As of the end of 2023, some 5.6 billion people worldwide are using mobile telephony. Of these 58% are using broadband and 18% of these users are now using 5G. And the data usage per consumer in the second largest market for mobile telephony in the world and probably the cheapest, is growing exponentially.

The lucrative nature of the telecommunications beast has attracted both the Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Group and the Adanis. These groups are matched in size. Both are simultaneously in heavier businesses, the former anchored in petrochemicals and refining, and the latter in ports, infrastructure, transshipments. It is only Bharti Airtel that is mainly, and one might broadly suggest, only in telecommunications. Bharti has encountered some headwinds in its efforts to stay profitable, not being in a position to cross fertilise its yields.

India is rapidly establishing itself as the most digitalised country in the world. It is inexpensive, accurate, swift and relatively safe if all protocols are followed. More and more Indians are learning to trust the process, as the government vigorously promotes digital usage.

Mukesh Ambani was indeed an early entrant into telecommunications, but had to back off after the Reliance Group was divided between himself and his younger brother Anil. There was a seven-year period during which he could not compete with the Anil Ambani led Reliance Communications. At the end of this period, there was a second coming, christened Reliance Jio. Because of very competitive pricing and deep pockets, Reliance Jio soon built-up enviable numbers, both in terms of subscribers and market share. Reliance Communications meanwhile, sadly failed.  

Principal rival and survivor Bharti Airtel was helped by its win of the Mumbai and Delhi circles early in the day. Others, like Escotel, eventually collapsed after making heavy losses, because its/their circles were not so creamy. There were not many survivors out of a dozen that existed in 2016. Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance actually got a chance to launch afresh with free calls and cheap data. It soon gained a 40% market share.

Based on the Vodafone experience, presumably other international mobile telephony companies will stay away from India’s mass market, even in joint venture, because of its low rates. They may, at best become passive investors and leave the operations to the Indian operators.

The 6G rollout is also lurking in the wings, and happily, all three big players are able to take care of its demands. China had hoped to roll it out, along with 5G at cut-throat prices, not just in India but in Europe, America, and Canada. But it was not possible to allow it because of spying suspicions and security concerns. China would have done better to not be so predatory but it never seems to learn.

The Reliance Group has entered hospitality, retail, fashion, toys, hydrogen. Adani is in real estate development, green energy. Both are seeking multiple touch points with the consuming and aspirational public. The Ambani children are already at the helm of many of these new companies, with the 67 year old patriarch as overseer, patron and facilitator.

One can’t say about Bharti Airtel, because of its lack of diversification, but it is likely that both the Reliance Group and the Adanis will emerge soon as trillion dollar conglomerates. They will be willing and able to contribute even more to the mission of India becoming a developed country in all respects by 2047, our centenary year.

(976 words)

July 17^th, 2024

For: thesquirrels.in

Gautam Mukherjee