Big Bad Wolves & Red Riding Hoods

Big Bad Wolves & Red Riding Hoods

The good thing about the Indian Me Too movement, kindled at long last, despite  a  seeming rape and murder every other minute somewhere in the country, is that it will empower women/men, and some others too.

At the top of this whole conundrum is the issue of attempted force, as in pressure exerted by powerful people, or actual manhandling, and the lack of consent from the object of their desires. This is indeed valid. Anyone who wants to play Romeo or Juliet should have a willing subject. And have the grace to accept no as no.

In the post article 377, post triple-talaq world, Me Too seems like a logical development and progression. It will empower potential or actual “victims of predators”, at least in the work place. This, as people - owners, promoters, officials, politicians, take care to have their HR departments properly address sexual harassment, and put out suitably stern missives on expected behaviour. And it is already kicking quite a few expendable movie directors and sundry others out of their jobs.

The bad thing about it, mediafest included/notwithstanding, is that it floats like inedible Hyacinth and its cousins, atop our highly polluted rivers.

The dirty rivers being a living metaphor for the Indian people, and their ways, including, in its embrace, the masses, and not just the classes. And the inedible Hyacinth is, of course, the desi Me Too movement.

In mass-market Bharat, niceties like sexual harassment are just foreplay for rape and murder - for the dead tell no tales, except, that is, to the forensic experts.

In urban work places, there are actually men and women who evidently enjoy using their power to demand sexual favours, without too much emphasis on the actual sex. Though, all accounts point to the fact that they get very peeved if they are not granted said favours.

It probably is not really about sexual gratification at all. Certainly, not in a two-way street sort of manner. It is more like a white collar version of “honour stalking”.

If it was about sex down and dirty, it might be altogether better for these well-heeled people to take a quick trip to Bangkok, Dubai or London, and pay for it, short-time, long-time, with or without adoration included - with no resultant fallout, and no strings attached.

But what prompts the high and mighty to want to play “house” and “doctor-doctor” right in the office, is one for the shrinks.

Hollywood stars, caught receiving gratification in parked cars in Beverly Hills, have said they prefer prostitutes to dates. It is, they have said, a lot less complicated and far less expensive. It certainly cannot lead to long-term relationships, at least in the usual sense, and therefore no aggravated damages/alimony when it goes south. It also does not, unless caught out by police torches, alert wives and girlfriends parked elsewhere.

Nevertheless, the global Me Too movement and its desi chapter has added a raspberry to the statute of limitations clause that save even tax dodgers.

Instead, it is au fait to remember being molested, harassed or raped, if not all of the above, ten, twenty or more years later, and demand retributive compensation with a straight, if tearful face. And so, almost anybody can be trashed at will, and every person in the public eye is vulnerable. If you think about it, a blameless existence is no insurance against a perceived transgression. An accused person is expected to deny wrong doing is he or she not? But, who can assuage the alleged victim’s hurt if not the polluted State?

The entire issue smacks of a probity that neither the Indian people nor the Americans or their developed world compatriots across the Atlantic possess. Ask a priest or godman for a view these days, here or there, and he looks away in guilty embarrassment. Compared to the washing of dirty linen in public Me Too entails, the invasiveness of Aadhar is like a love tap.  

And how will allegations stand up in a court of law that generally revels in incontrovertible proof, and lets murderers off if there is less?

Or will sexual harassment and rape, in our post-modern jurisprudence, be decided on the victim’s accusation and recollection of doings and sayings decades ago? Will it be thought sufficient and good enough to punish the accused?

On the other hand, perhaps it won’t come to that. Involving the police with FIRs, is not the same as involving the judiciary over several years if not decades afresh.

Isn’t dragging people through the mud of calumny enjoyable enough after all? Ruining a reputation with salacious allegations, true or otherwise, is certainly hilarious till someone commits suicide over it. People have done so over less. Or more. Ask any real rape victim. And the probable moral clincher if one is at all bothered about morality. Why was it tolerable then and not so now?

What kind of defence is it that is being trotted out over the media? Sample a few of the statements - I didn’t have the courage to out the predator days or months after it happened, but am doing so now because people in America have made it alright? At the time, I was focused on getting ahead in my career, which my “monster-predator” was in a position to advance. I took the benefits, trading my integrity if not my virtue at the time, but now I cannot let a day go by without naming the wolf in the paddock of my desirable years.

Is it gender insensitive and patriarchal to trash this fraudulent nonsense? Victims- men, women and people of other genders are not going to be trusted if they employ such tactics. Even Harvey Weinstein is about to get off stock free for lack of proof. So when will our urban warriors for gender equality try to earn their place in the sun by dint of their merit, instead of trying to bring down people they happily took favours from in their misspent youth?

Many women and men who do not use their sexuality to get ahead in the work place are left behind by those who have no compunction in doing so. This includes, of course, the not so good looking, and older people who may be very competent at their jobs, if nowhere near as sexually attractive.

In the age of television and the internet it is evident that the Me Too complainers, almost without exception, would theoretically have no problem trading on their competence today if not their looks. That most are unemployed and alone is telling and not without irony.

It is nobody’s case that progress on gender equality, gender pay etc. usually takes a tortuous route through such back alleys. And perhaps in years to come, the Me Too movement, here and elsewhere, will seem as quaint and droll as Suffragettes chaining themselves to the railings at Westminster to demand voting  rights for women.

Of course, the other implication, unintended perhaps, is that anything goes, as long as it is not in the workplace, does not involve a powerful predator playing wolf and a victim wearing Red Riding’s hood, or in all the fun places and events related to  work offsites. And this goes double for pluralities.

All this legitimate if tiresome fuss might make the art of making a pass a thing of the past in the work place. Who knows before-hand, except for clairvoyance, whether Jack or Jill actually wants to take a walk up the hill?

(1,254 words)

October 12^th, 2018

For: My Nation

Gautam Mukherjee

BOOK REVIEW: GURU: NARENDRA RAVAL OF KENYA

BOOK REVIEW

TITLE: GURU

AUTHORS: NARENDRA RAVAL &KAILASH MOTA

PUBLISHER: BLOOMSBURY, 2018, Rs. 499/-

Story Of An Impoverished Ethnic Indian Made Great & Good In Kenya

Forewords to this autobiography of Narendra Naval ( nicknamed Guru), one of Kenya’s greatest Industrialists, include congratulatory letters from Prime Minister Narendra Modi who has long known Raval, and President Uhuru Kenyatta, the Amherst educated son of the legendary Jomo Kenyatta.

Another is from Lord Raj Loomba of the UK, whose charitable foundation Raval supports.  The Loomba Foundation helps widows in India, and at the behest of Raval, in Kenya as well.

This book speaks endearingly and conversationally, in Raval’s voice. It is cast in inspirational terms, with a plethora of slogans, pieties and bon mots, with a clear belief in destiny. It descends from time to time into a family and organisational scrap book - without however taking anything away from the impressive tale at its core.  

Raval was born in a joint family in the tiny village of Mathak in the Halvad Taluka of the Surendranagar District of Gujarat, the gateway to Saurashtra. His father and family were thrown out of the prosperous family home by his grandfather before Raval turned 10.

Raval’s early years were spent dodging school and book knowledge, not only while in his father’s care, but elsewhere in Gujarat, with his maternal grandparents, and maternal uncles.

A key turning point was his induction as a priest into the Swaminarayan sect. It became something of a lifelong association and network for him. It began in his late teens, as a priest, first in Bhuj, and later in Nairobi, when he was sent to a Kenyan temple.  It laid down the basis of his freelance priestly work carried out later at Nakuru, a Kenyan hill resort.

It also has a good deal to do with his own spiritual outlook and honesty, his caring attitude towards employees and colleagues, animals and birds. All this combined with Narendra Raval’s extraordinary abilities in palmistry and astrology that made him much sought  after in the Gujarati business circles in Kenya and the UK.

It was at Nakuru where the young Brahmin priest began to be called Guru for the first time.   This, both for his priestly and astrological skills, the latter learned initially during his time at the Bhuj Swaminarayan Temple.

It was also at Nakuru where he met President Daniel Arap Moi for the first time in rather mundane circumstances when he had tagged along with a couple of technicians who had gone to fix the President’s TV.

He was invited, soon after, to live in as resident priest and spiritual adviser by the owners of Kenya’s most successful steel rolling mills – the  Kikuyu Steel Rolling Mills in Nairobi. Raval was thus introduced, in his early twenties, to an opulent business environment by the Dayabhai H Patel family.

He started going to the office with the head of the family, and learnt about the steel rolling business in all its aspects. By the time, not very long after, this family sold up and went their separate ways, to the US, UK, and elsewhere, Raval had his basic grounding in the steel business. He also had a renewable work permit for Kenya.

Next, Raval teamed up with some of his Nakuru friends who ran a hardware business –Delta Hardware, and persuaded them to open a Nairobi branch for wholesaling. Introducing more and more steel items to the mix out of his knowledge at Kikuyu, Raval gradually took the business national, started importing quota regulated items, and grew Delta Harware to the biggest business in its field in Kenya. But Raval was not a shareholder, nor did he work for a salary. The very growth he induced led to the split and closure of Delta by its four partners. By now Raval had also got married to Neeta, a qualified chemist. Though so much had happened, he was only 23 and not yet a Kenyan citizen.

In Raval’s life, many turns for the better, it is seen, was always preceded by being sent back to square one.

Married and almost penniless, Raval resolved to  set up for himself, opening the “Steel Centre” in the name of Neeta who was a Kenyan citizen already. They rented a warehouse in a new business district of Gikomba in Nairobi, even though it was in a rough neighborhood.

But in 4 years, between 1986 and 1990, the business had grown to Kenyan Shillings 1 million. Raval found finance from wealthy friends and friendly bankers, all due to his priestly  work of yore and his ongoing astrology that he still dispensed to help many people free-of-charge.

By 1993, Steel Centre in turn was now the largest hardware trading business in Kenya encompassing wholesaling and retail as well. The two existing steel rolling mills in Kenya could not keep up with demand, and so, Raval resolved to set up a steel rolling mill of his own. The Kenya Commercial Bank (KCB) was instrumental in both financing Raval’s move into manufacturing (Devki Steel Mills Ltd.) and seeing it through to stability by 1996.

And meticulous accounting, he says is: “The heart and soul of your business. A small error, if not nipped in the bud, can bring down a well established business”.  

Gradually, Narendra Raval expanded, acquired, diversified, and backward integrated, growing his businesses into the “one stop manufacturer for all infrastructure products” he dreamed of. This, in time, meant Steel, Building Materials, Cement, and spreading out into the countries neighboring Kenya as well.

The sheer humility of the narration is impressive, coming as it does from a self-made billionaire, and one of the leading private sector lights of Africa.

And yes, one has to agree with the Narendra Raval of 2018, priest, astrologer, philanthropist, industrialist, pater familias, when he says: “ Vision is the art of seeing what is invisible to others”.

(955 words)

October 3^rd, 2018

For: The Sunday Pioneer, AGENDA, BOOKS

Gautam Mukherjee

BOOK REVIEW KAUSHIK BASU THE REPUBLIC OF BELIEFS

BOOK REVIEW

AUTHOR: KAUSHIK BASU

TITLE: THE REPUBLIC OF BELIEFS-A NEW APPROACH TO LAW AND ECONOMICS

PUBLISHER: PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2018

Law And Economics Must Meet At The Crossroads

Kaushik Basu currently teaches Economics and International Studies at Cornell University in the US. He has had an illustrious career, with distinguished stints as chief economist and senior vice president at the World Bank, and later, in this neck of the woods, Basu was chief economic adviser to the Government of India during UPA rule.

Basu mostly leans Left in his economic ideas, and is a former student, amongst several others, of Nobel Laureate and “Welfare” economist Amartya Sen - who is also from India and a fellow Bengali too.

This latest, extensively researched book, that quotes many thinkers to illustrate his points, has Kaushik Basu exploring the co-relationship between laws and economics. It tries, to an extent to speak to the ordinary reader, but is, in fact, quite an academic tome.  Still, some of its basic premises are readily graspable.

Why are some laws both obeyed and enforced, he asks, while others stay quite ineffective on the statute books? In India, he points out, there are, in fact, many laws that are rarely used or enforced.  Basu writes, that in order for a law to be  properly implemented and used, it must intersect at a “focal point” with society and its economic ideas. 

In other words it must make sense both to the enforcers of the law and the people it is intended for. Otherwise, both are likely to collude in its subversion or leaving it on the shelf.

“The most important ingredients of a republic, including its power and might, reside in nothing more than the beliefs and expectations of ordinary people going about their daily lives and quotidian chores. It is in this sense that we are all citizens of the republic of beliefs,” writes Kaushik Basu. He goes on to write: “The focal point is a somewhat mysterious concept that emerged from modern game theory”.

This concept of intersecting beliefs however, is the main point of this book, and Basu’s suggestions towards a more effective socio-legal environment essential for orderly progress, are predicated upon it.

Basu believes one of the purposes of law, which is an instrument of the State as a collective, is to influence and alter the collective behavior of its people towards preset objectives. In this he goes beyond the more usual objective of an “orderly society” so that economics can do its stuff in peace. He actually wants to influence the populace via the laws adopted. He writes, “The focal point approach relies on the expressive function or suggestive power of the law and not on any human irrationality. It is purely a device that uses suggestion to facilitate coordination”.

Basu clarifies further: “What the focal approach to law and economics does is to take on the full economy game, including the police and the judge, and then tries to explain how and why the law works”.

In other words, you need all the ingredients to be in some form of tacit agreement on the premises assumed by both the given law, and the economic context it operates in, for it to be widely adopted and used.

But, quite often, “It is not evident what constitutes a focal point for different groups of people”. In a highly diversified country like India this becomes doubly relevant  and even more difficult to arrive at.

Traditional laws, he says, were less inclusive in their approach, and usually were made up based on the consensus of a few, and then, sometimes imposed, when they were vigorously enforced, upon the many. He states that is why they often did not work, even though his outright demoting of the traditional approach without very much ado, is less than convincing. 

However, for a left-leaning thinker, inclusiveness must appear far more attractive as a basis to build upon, rather than a top-down approach to economic order and law-giving. Even if the latter method goes back to the Hammurabi Code and Moses’ Ten Commandments.

Basu is an admirer of the ancient Greek City States, and the way they went about their business. He wants to see the principles enunciated then, spread across a 21^st century global canvas to the extent possible. But this tends to be an impossible seduction, as the many self-contradictory effects  in Democracy show. The idea is pleasant, but it is not easy to remain democratic in a so-called Democracy!

Focal points can be arrived at via custom, and tradition, writes Basu, as in the “tenacious” Indian caste system. They can also be arrived at by discrimination. That is, by giving advantages to a specific group over another or several others. But predictably, Basu is not for allowing free play to it with its overtones of apartheid.

He writes: “The popular view is that if you leave it all to the market, with no government regulations and intervention, discrimination will go away, is not valid. Discrimination arises from a free market. If you want to stop discrimination, you may, in fact, need regulation and conscious affirmative action”.

Kaushik Basu is certainly not for rank Capitalism. He writes: “Once we move beyond payoff-focused critiques to generalized ones, many challenges open up. Human beings are guided not just by their own payoffs but also by habit, fairness, altruism, empathy, envy and many other emotional and psychological proclivities….Conservative economists, who condone selfishness by believing Adam Smith’s concept of the invisible hand will invariably lead such a society to optimal results, end up creating failed societies”.

Is Basu right?  That depends on your own politics and economics. But he certainly puts out an entertaining variation on Nash’s Game Theory to support his plumping for the old economic concept of the Focal Point.

Is such a thing rather theoretical when it comes to Law and Economics? My view is that it certainly is. And also it is not the job of Law so much as Justice to set Society on the right track. Economics marches to its own drummer.

Recent progressive Supreme Court judgements on Homosexuality, Triple Talaq, and women  between the ages of 12 and 50 being allowed to go  to a revered temple that kept them out for millennia,  are all cases in point.

(1,024 words)

October 2^nd, 2018

For: The Sunday Pioneer, AGENDA, BOOKS

Gautam Mukherjee

Game-Changer Battles In The War For India

Game-Changer Battles In the War For India

Which narrative is going to work with the voters? Is it the positivity of  Prime Minister Modi’s health insurance scheme, aimed at 50 crore of the poorest of the poor?  

Or is it Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s high decibel accusations of corruption at the highest level of government in the Rafale fighter deal?

Can a corruption allegation, even if it is mostly a charge of crony capitalism, resonate with the voting public?

Is the Congress and Communist call for a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) probe, or exhorting the Chief Vigilance Commissioner (CVC) to confiscate the Rafale files, in the national interest?

Particularly since the weapons configuration on the 36 ordered fighter jets is a secret between seller France and buyer India, and one that both Pakistan and China are keen to learn about?

Another possible motive of the Congress, quite obvious to many, is to deflect attention from several corruption and tax evasion investigations, involving the top echelons of the Congress leadership. Creating a hullabaloo over Rafale, they are probably hoping, will muddy the waters in their favour.

This campaign rhetoric has already been going on for some 4 months without gaining much traction, but the Congress and its president seem highly committed to keep up the pressure.

However, since the principal opposition party seems to have no hard evidence in its possession to substantiate its ever wilder allegations, a legal offensive against the government appears difficult.

Meanwhile, a thousand people had already availed of “Modicare” as the international media would have it, with its echoes of Obamacare, in the first 48 hours since launch.  

The ambitious and gargantuan scheme is more properly called the National Health Protection Scheme (NHPS). It is also being referred to as “Ayushman Bharat” and lately, the Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Abhiyaan (PMJAY).

Modi himself dubbed it a game-changer, implying that this is a  non-discriminatory, “sabka-sath-sabka-vikas” horse, that he intends to ride into victory.

The NHPS is slated to benefit 10.74 crore families at first, thereby an estimated 50 crore people, with a fully government funded health insurance cover of up to Rs. 5 lakh per family per year. It will cover secondary and tertiary care inclusive of hospitalization. It will, at full stretch, cover a population comparable to that of Canada, Mexico and the US combined. And it will certainly boost the healthcare insurance industry to unprecedented levels with an attendant growth in jobs.

The  Congress, and some other opposition elements, have been quick, perhaps out of a foreboding panic, to cast doubts about  the feasibility of its funding and implementation, calling it a “hoax” and an election season “jumla”.

The PMJAY is ten times bigger in terms of cover, than existing healthcare schemes for the poor in some states, no greater than Rs. 50,000 per family. However, this scheme, like almost any other, does not cover as many poor people as some of the dissenting states would like.

And as usual, despite healthcare being a state subject neglected by most for over 70 years, some dissenting states want the Centre to take on more than the 60:40 cost split of it. They have suggested 75: 25 instead, and demanded inclusion of many more numbers of people in their state.

Let us see how swiftly this massive and countrywide scheme rolls out.  It has been accepted by all in its present form, except for Telengana, Odisha, Kerala, Punjab and Delhi. However there are signs that these states too may soon come on board if their comments and objections are addressed.

And also because they will not want to be caught on the wrong foot if PMJAY succeeds as expected by the government.

Nandan Nilekani, of Infosys fame, who was instrumental in building the Aadhar infrastructure and the Goods and Service Tax Network (GSTN), has been asked to work out the distribution for NHPS by Niti Aayog, the government’s primary think-tank. As he has the requisite experience to handle such a huge scheme, and has accepted the challenge, good outcomes may be anticipated.

The opposition, out-classed on this initiative, is in any case finding it difficult to come together owing to differences between its various leaders and their priorities.

The only thing they theoretically agree on is that they want to remove Narendra Modi from the prime ministership.  For some, like Congress President Rahul Gandhi, anyone else in BJP will do, if push comes to shove.

In terms of a policy beyond this, the opposition seem to have found nothing  to project. The Congress promises to dismantle GST if voted into power while being ambivalent on its own leadership role. Irrespective, it says it will grant special status to Andhra Pradesh. It loses no opportunity to malign and  cast aspersions on the RSS ,sides with the separatists in J&K, and the Maoists in Central India too.

Another opposition stalwart and PM aspirant Mamata Banerjee of TMC, highly dependent on her Muslim vote bank, never tires of calling the BJP communal. She professes determination to oppose the work of the National Citizens Register (NCR) in Bengal, deeply rattled by its implementation in Assam.

Significantly, Dalit leader Mayawati’s BSP has recently formed her own alliance with expelled Congressman and tribal leader Ajit Yogi in Chattisgarh. She has, by this action, sent out a signal that she will negotiate hard for the requisite number of seats to contest in other states as well, or possibly go it alone.

BJP, on its part, is definitely feeling the heat of a weakening rupee, high oil prices, a skittish stock market, a persistent NPA problem, a moribund property market, low export levels, a high import bill, widening fiscal and current account deficits, little private sector investment, and other economic challenges brought on by the global scenario.

Will it pull off any other bold initiatives like the Triple Talaq Ordinance in the remaining months? Can J&K be trifurcated into 3 union territories? Will the long- awaited temple at Ayodhya commence its construction?

The sense one feels however is that these things will probably have to wait, because the government does not want to unleash unforeseen forces at this late juncture.

But, politically, it is still in a better position to pull off a victory in most of the assembly polls coming up, and in the general elections of 2019.

If a second term does come about, it will usher in the first government that is not Congress or Congress led, to be in power for a consecutive decade.

Narendra Modi has often stated that he wants to transform India. Some of the work is done. All of India’s villages are electrified, high level corruption has been eliminated, the North East of India is now in the mainstream, infrastructure has been given a massive push, the administration and systems have been largely digitized, Indian diplomacy and foreign policy has been refurbished, the economy has been revived from its lows.

But of course given another five years, many pieces of the unfinished jigsaw  will be put in place- housing for all, smart cities, rural infrastructure, food processing and value addition, more of India’s armaments made in India, an economy doubled to $ 5 trillion with all its attendant benefits, a modernized railway, inclusive of dedicated freight corridors, bullet trains, and many more metro systems around the country.

This is therefore the last chance of the opposition to return the country to its own comfort levels and it seems certain that it knows it.

(1,239 words)

For: My Nation

September 25, 2018

Gautam Mukherjee

Aadhar Has You On The Grid

Aadhar Has You On The Grid

The Supreme Court is due to take a final call on the limitations to be imposed on Aadhar in the light of its earlier ruling on Privacy as a fundamental right. And, of course, its interim ruling, permitting it to carry on doing its job.

It seems improbable, given the pace of the Judiciary, that this important judgement will be handed down in the next few days during the remaining tenure of the present Chief Justice Dipak Mishra.

This is pertinent only because CJI Mishra is perceived to be inclined to the ruling government view that Aadhar is an important means to put every legitimate citizen on the grid, and should be allowed wide-licence to operate.

However, his designated successor, Justice Gogoi, due to take over after October 2^nd, is expected to take a more nuanced view, given his reportedly left- liberal leanings. He was one of the four senior-most judges of the Supreme Court that rebelled against the  current Chief Justice, and held an unprecedented  press conference at the Press Club of India in New Delhi, challenging the CJI’s right to allocate cases to “junior judges” as the “Master of the Roster”.

Being a constitutional matter, it will, of course, be decided by a fairly large bench, hopefully allowing for different views to be expressed and considered, as part of its composition and process towards a final judgement.

Of course, parliament has been made supreme since the Emergency in the Seventies, and will, if necessary, have the legislative last word.

There is a considerable clamour from the Opposition, sections of the media, and the Left-Liberal element at large, that Aadhar should be revoked, or failing this, made voluntary in all cases. This, rather than mandatory in given instances, or indeed universally, as is demanded by some others.

Given that the same Left-Liberal element supports the case for “Urban Naxals” out to murder the Prime Minister being referred to as “Freedom of Expression/Human Rights Activists”. And refers to Islamic terrorist organization members, such as those in Hizb Mujahideen, as mere “workers”; not a lot of support can be expected from such quarters.

Aadhar is more or less essential today to access most goods and services, make investments, buy assets, or file taxes.

This will remain as a “voluntary” requirement no matter what the judiciary pronounces, short of scrapping and undoing the enormously expensive exercise that has already been completed. This, going by the interim  judgement, and the national interest, is extremely unlikely.

It is therefore a mystery why the vilification campaign against Aadhar persists with dark innuendoes of a fascist, “big-brother-is- watching” intent. Will the government use Aadhar to target dissidents or just the terrorists and illegals? Will it use it to monitor everyone’s financial dealings to catch malfeasance, or blackmail those it wishes to intimidate?

It could, of course, well do all these things, and other governments, including Democratic ones, have been known to do so, and more. But nevertheless, isn’t it necessary, this kind of threat, at least in part, to keep the good, law abiding citizen safe and secure? Hasn’t the crooked element, the gamer of the system, the criminal, the cheats, forgers, thugs, terrorists, illegals, seditionists, spies, the treasonous, and so on, got away with impunity, despite being in plain sight, and for much too long?

The government, in the interim, has more or less assumed that it can make Aadhar mandatory and ubiquitous, though there is a preceding, if perfunctory, “voluntary acceptance” clause.

There are a lot of illegal aliens, the subjects of the NCR mappings, however imperfect, conducted in Assam so far. That illegal aliens also have Aadhar cards is a worry, but  not a problem that cannot be solved via adequate cross-referencing of other data like ancestry and settled domicile to establish citizenship.

The dimensions of the illegal aliens problem is large, at an estimated 5 crore people, and poses a substantial security and demographic risk/threat. Particularly when they are also allowed to vote on the strength of their genuine identity papers but obtained by questionable means.

This commonsense argument against, outweighs the so-called humanitarian angle towards illegal “refugees”. It outweighs also the economic argument, from those who would have soft borders, as if we were a budding EU, rather than a country besieged with two hostile neighbors. The biggest of them, in fact, in cahoots with each other, and growing their influence with other minnows in the area as well.

This despite a more or less constant subversion and terrorism, sometimes using networks of illegal aliens, many of whom are from the minority community, hard to ferret out from minority ghettos, and easily radicalized to boot.

And then there is the more cynical aiding and abetting of illegal aliens to bolster vote banks in border states such as Bengal, alter demographics altogether, as in  Assam and other North Eastern States, and even plant Rohingyas all the way across, in Jammu.

But quite apart from the fate of Aadhar, the electronic and digital mapping of individuals and their secrets, in the age of nearly a billion smart phones in use, is so widespread, that the Privacy argument, in practical terms, is already dead in the water.

The biggest tangible success using Aadhar so far has been in the direct disbursement of subsidies via authenticated bank accounts of the poor. Because it has rooted out many false identities, middle men, and duplications from the system, thereby saving the exchequer crores of rupees, it does not agree with those who were milking the earlier system.

It is necessary to note however, that the data on Aadhar apart, the government is within its constitutional rights to conduct  various forms of surveillance to protect its   integrity in terms of National Security.  

Biometric data is the incontrovertible proof of individual identity. This has long been known and applied in the issuance of a number of European visas as well as in other sophisticated security systems gateways.

The United States, the oldest Democracy, even as India is the most populous one, has long collected and used  Aadhar style data via its Social Security numbering system. It also has covered almost every square inch of its territory via satellite and terrestrial surveillance cameras. Things on the move are tracked too via GPS and other systems. Even facilities underground, or in the deep sea, are monitored today. There is therefore nowhere to run and nowhere to hide. Similar methods and devices are used all over the world in all kinds of political systems.

Despite this, there are security breaches, electronic data hackings and subversion, while ever more sophisticated anti-hacking and anti-data theft systems are being constantly developed.

India has little choice, in a globalised world, but to follow suit. This is a Digital Age and the analog argument cannot hold water any more.

Of course, it is understandable that the stripping away of the erstwhile power to manipulate data to suit oneself is a massive change in the game that is hard to digest for some. Wanting to go back to paper ballots is part of this longing. As is the attempt via outfits like Cambridge Analytica to use personal data clandestinely to influence elections. 

International hackings into military hardware, banking systems and political data banks is also potent enough to develop crack units to conduct Cyber Warfare in turn.

The Digital Age is throwing up its own challenges, to be sure, but there is literally no going back.

Possibly, the only way to stay anonymous today is to never use anything with electronics in it. But is this at all feasible for any length of time?

(1, 267 words)

For: My Nation

September 13^th, 2018

Gautam Mukherjee

Oil On Fire: The Open-Market Illusion In Statist Fetters

Oil On Fire: The Open-Market Illusion In Statist Fetters

Prime Minister Narendra Modi needs to be reminded that when he personally made the call for removing the remaining fuel subsidies, at the beginning of his tenure, he made no mention of imposing fresh indirect taxes on fuel.

Of course,   even in the erstwhile subsidized regime on fuel, the tax collections on sale of fuel far outweighed the outgoings.

The impression given by Modi however was that he was encouraging the free-market, and that Indians would henceforth pay whatever the international prices dictated. Tickers at the pump would be revised daily or more often, and it would be a two way street.

But did the Prime Minister think the whole matter through? Because what the public got is its fuel, no longer subsidized, and at twice the international prices!

This is proven by the rates at which our exports of refined fuel  are effected, before the imposition of a plethora of Central and State taxes! The public has been made the victim of a statist confidence trick in which the Finance Minister raised excise duty 9 times in the 50 months of this government, followed by State imposed ad valorem VAT, additional taxes et al.

And the State on its part, has done absolutely nothing, for over a quarter century since liberalization, when fuel demand began to grow as the stifling controls of the Licence-Permit Raj were dismantled.

Nothing at all, to develop a strategy to manage contingencies and unforeseen exigencies of international oil prices. This even though oil is the country’s largest import, at over 80% of its ever expanding requirement. An import that involves an estimated $87.7 billion till March 31^st 2018,  up 25% on the year before, and likely to go up another $30 billion this current fiscal. We are currently the 3^rd largest global importer of crude, importing over 220 million MT annually.

The Modi government, which the public was hoping would be a departure from the lackadaisical strategic planning of the past, has unfortunately been a let-down too.

Where was the attempt to create a contingency Oil Import Fund when this government enjoyed two years of low crude prices? Did its think-tanks conclude that international crude prices would henceforth always be low?

For the military, and as a host for other countries, India has begun to stockpile crude in underground reservoirs. But for itself, as an economy, and for the public, it has no strategic vision, apart from attempted sourcing at better prices,  and bagging oil exploration contracts abroad.

Why are there no bio-fuel refineries even though bumper sugarcane harvests struggle to find takers and need massive government subsidy and support prices? Other estimates conclude 58% of our vegetables and fruit spoil for lack of modern cold chain facilities and this waste too could also become biofuel.

India could meet perhaps 20% of its present needs for crude if not more if it had the right policies in place, implementing them with a will.

America has found its own way via high-tech shale-cracking, to become crude self sufficient and a net exporter. India, on the other hand, has been left behind by countries like Thailand, which has plenty of biofuel availability at its pumps. Union Minister Gadkari recently promised Indian biofuel by that magic year 2022, India’s 75^th as a free country. A date which appears to serve this government’s future wish-list in all matters!

Also consider that when it comes to the over 7% fall in the rupee and counting, against the dollar, the Thai Baht has fallen only 1.24%, by reducing its linkages with the US dollar. 

The government tries to justify holding the line on these rapacious fuel prices by saying the taxes raised are going into infrastructure development etc. without once being either transparent or specific. It also says it has repaid the oil bond borrowings of the UPA to pay for the erstwhile subsidies.

Highly educated apologists of the government try to keep their finger in the dyke by invoking all kinds of macro-economic scaremongering, hinting darkly at a stock market and economic collapse if the government does not hold the line.

The fact is, the stock market has lost over 2% in just two days, obviously unimpressed by the government’s policy actions, and interest rates are likely to go up too.

The suspicion remains that at least a proportion of the fuel taxes goes to pay for a bloated political and bureaucratic apparatus, that has never once, in the 50 odd months of this government, attempted any form of cost-cutting or austerity.

Instead, there have been salary and pension enhancements for itself with metronomic regularity, not once but several times- pay commission revisions, MP and MLA emolument revisions, allowance and perquisite revisions and so on.

It is time to hold the Modi government to account for ignoring the wishes of most, if not all of urban India, most affected by unprecedented fuel prices.

The CAD and fiscal deficit, the inflationary effect on everything via fuel as a vital input cost, is to be ignored only at this government’s peril. Rating agencies are already downgrading India and foreign capital is fleeing.

To be so obtuse about this matter in an election season, is inexplicable, unless the Modi government is banking heavily on the TINA factor .  

But apart from the shocking lack of anticipation, evident in  the government’s bumbling responses under attack, this vexed issue of retail fuel pricing has quite a policy history. Diesel in particular, along with its cousin Kerosene, were long thought to be a poor man’s fuel, even though heavy transport and trains used Diesel too. And so, they was highly subsidized. The limited Kerosene in use today continues to be so.

Petrol came next, but in the old Swadeshi/Socialist days, there were only a restricted number of cars and two-wheelers produced, and waiting lists for new ones ran into years.

Aviation fuel and aircraft parking charges, were, and still are, outrageously priced in India. It is still treated as a luxury item that facilitates air travel by the rich.

Gradually, over a decade after liberalisation, people could not only buy freely and “off-the-shelf”, from a wide selection of transport options, but banks eagerly financed them with affordable EMIs.

As cars, motorcycles, scooters, grew in number alongside trucks and buses and expansion of the rail, metro, road, waterways, aviation, port sectors - the subsidies on fuel started to burgeon. Successive governments struggled to finance the fuel subsidies, and increasingly on LPG for the poor, as the gas finds off-shore made it available. The LPG direct subsidy to the poor is the largest remaining chunk still operative.

As the predecessor governments started to both raise prices and take subsidies off in miniscule doses, the consuming public was not unduly upset. It started with the more elite petrol and aviation fuel, and then expanded gingerly to diesel, kerosene and LPG too.

International crude prices raged high through most of UPA I & II, and prices of fuel in India crept up steadily.  But it is only now that the free-floating pricing from the oil marketing companies and not the Petroleum Ministry, plus choke inducing government taxes, have resulted in hefty, daily upward price revisions!

Today, the Central and State governments do occasionally tinker with fuel prices by up to 3-4 rupees, fearful of public anger, but this is far from adequate to control the Frankenstein monster a lack of foresight has created.

To sacrifice the micro in favour of confusion over macro economics, is an old BJP failing. It resulted in ending the tenure of AB Vajpayee, despite his failed “India Shining” re-election campaign in 2004.

And now, seeking approbation from FIIs, WB, IMF, international rating agencies like Moody and Fitch, is seemingly being given priority over working for the relief of the Indian people.

There is, in addition, probably a confused socialism at play. The BJP seems content to ignore the aspirations of the urban masses and classes, even though it forms almost half the electorate, in favour of a mythic solidarity with the rural hinterland. Is this not over confidence gone horribly wrong?

The BJP, says its Party President Amit Shah, expects to win handsomely in 2019, and rule for another “fifty years”.

But how does clubbing an opportunistic Opposition agitation for a cut in fuel prices, with the genuine demand for relief from the hurting, angry masses, help in the reelection endeavour?

(1,397 words)

For:  The Sunday Guardian

September 12^th, 2018

Gautam Mukherjee