Parties Can’t Divide Castes & Piggy-Back On Minorities Anymore

This is a political obituary written a few days in advance. But should its import come to pass, it will have considerable effect on the future politics of India.

It will remove an eclipsed politician from centre-stage in Kolkata. And it will cast her party, the AITMC, more usually called the TMC, into the outer darkness. But beyond the impending defeat, it will put paid to some long-established political formulae.

It is bad enough that the minority vote has been turned into a battering ram. It is driven by an impressive population explosion, egged on by multiple wives and sharia law spouting mullahs in mosques. Then there is the creeping illegal immigration that has run into crores of people melted into the Indian populace.

Illegals, who are not grateful for a new lease on life and dignity, but who foment violence and Islamic terrorism. Illegals, given state government abetted makeovers and concocted identity papers. These sometimes even disguise Muslims as Hindus, as the national level scrutiny has hardened.

In J&K, rescued from the brink by the Modi government, there is an ongoing effort to broaden the voter base by enfranchising those who are native Kashmiris, but were left out by the previous dispensation. There is a new census and preparation of voter lists underway. The demographics of the Valley which are overwhelmingly in favour of the Sunni majority are being diluted. Ladakh, both Buddhist and Shia, is already blossoming without the domination of Srinagar, or indeed Jammu.

It is telling how, out of the five rioting people shot dead by the CISF in Cooch Behar recently, four were claimed by Mamata Banerjee herself to be ‘Muslim Rajbanshis’. How this oxymoronic feat has been pulled off in a Hindu caste is hard to understand.

Matuas, the other Hindu caste prominent in the upcoming phases of the West Bengal elections are also Hindu. How many Matuas has Mamata Banerjee managed to turn Muslim?

This demographic challenge is not just the West Bengal story. It is rampant too in Assam. The Islamic minority now numbers over 30 crores nationally. Border states cannot afford this wilful and porous onslaught. And neither can the country as a whole.

This time, the West Bengal assembly elections have not only seen unprecedented defections from the TMC to the BJP, but also the support of the lower castes and the Communists. The Communists are saying if backing Modi gets rid of Didi, so be it.

Mamata Banerjee, realising she needs more than just the existing minority vote, at almost 30%, is battling to gain lower caste votes too. They will determine the outcome of over a 100 seats in the coming phases of the election.

Meanwhile her high profile, reputedly rain-making election consultant Prashant Kishor, has washed his hands of the affair. He has blamed her squarely for excessive minority appeasement. The phases so far have apparently gone against the TMC. Kishor avers Narendra Modi enjoys tremendous popularity in West Bengal. This includes most of the women voters.

If there is a BJP sweep, nothing can be done for the TMC. If however, the election is close, who will come to Banerjee’s rescue besides the Congress? 

But as of now, the traditional schisms, cynically provoked to suit, between Tribals, Adivasis, Dalits, Scheduled Castes, other backward castes (OBCs), the upper castes, has also begun to heal. BJP won most of the scheduled caste and reserved seats for the Lok Sabha election in West Bengal in 2019.  Can TMC reverse the tide?

The deliberately engendered mistrust, even the so called lack of ‘identity politics’  bragged about by Bengali Communists, has been pushed aside. All Hindus in West Bengal are now in fear of being swamped by Islamists and see Narendra Modi as a saviour.

Protectors of Islamic belligerence such as the Congress Party are almost wiped out. Without electoral success, the minorities have shifted focus towards disruption and violence. There is rioting, arson, demonstrations, lawlessness, murders, terrorism, sharia excesses, and offensive rants against Hindus across the board.

Even Maoist threats form only a subset to this Islamic excess. As does Khalistani separatism, and side shows like the Punjab ‘Farmer’ Protests.

There is, despite severe economic dislocation occasioned by the Covid pandemic, a determination to push back. The unabashedly Hindu NDA government in the centre and in the states is refreshing for not being financially corrupt. It is also staunchly nationalist. It is working on infrastructure, welfare, and defence preparedness at a frenetic pace. The voting public is pleased.

But what does an opposition party do henceforth, when the perceptually authentic majoritarian party is ensconced very comfortably in power?

The Prime Minister promotes Hinduism personally by observing all major Hindu festivals and rituals, visiting most revered temples, in country and abroad. Once there, he does not just pose for photos. He prays as an unabashed and credible practicing Hindu. Narendra Modi performed all the dawn rituals and inaugurated the rebuilding of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya that had been blocked for over a century. That spectacle, broadcast nationally and internationally, has restored Hindu pride. This may have undone the sacrilege in Hindu eyes done by Mughal Emperor Babur’s general. But Emperor Aurangzeb’s latter day desecrations remain unfinished business.

For the first time there is a seriousness about pursuing the case for extracting the Aurangzeb built Gyan Vapi Mosque from the revered Kashi Vishwanath temple complex at Varanasi. Ditto for the Shahi Edgah Masjid nestling offensively at the Krishna Janmabhoomi in Mathura.

The dramatic progress made on the renovations and clearance of encroachments leading to the ghats from the Kashi Viswanath temple complex is also a matter of immense Hindu pride. Many ancient if small temples have emerged from under the encroachments. A 50 feet wide corridor to the ghats, along with a number of new public buildings for visitors and pilgrims is nearly done. Reinforcements, embankments, repairs to the ancient ghats, roof top Ganga-view galleries, are ongoing.

The word ‘Secularism’ in the Indian context has never meant a separation of Church and State. Here it has been used to boost the minorities at the expense of the majority, misusing the Indian Constitution to justify it. The minorities in turn have extracted out of turn privileges and become belligerent because of the abject political dependence on their backing.

This particular Faustian pact has run its course. Initially, for the Nehru and Indira Gandhi decades, it resulted in majority governments, with all opposition reduced to the margins. This was not just because of the minorities. In addition, the lower castes voted for the Congress Party, run by upper caste men and women. This changed in the late Sixties and Seventies with the Ram Manohar Lohia and Jayaprakash Narayan movements. After that, the lower castes developed their own leaders and a significant number of regional parties joined the fray.

This, of course, fragmented the monolithic vote. After the assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984, there was one last Congress government with an absolute majority. After that, there were only coalitions.

This changed after 30 years with the coming of Narendra Modi to the Centre with a majority in 2014.

Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress is a one-woman supremo. She has clawed her way to power in the face of Communist intimidation for two absolute majority terms. But her career is also illustrative of how the broader polity has progressed. She too was originally part of the Congress Party. She was a union minister in PV Narasimha Rao’s government, and again in the Vajpayee administration after she broke away from Congress.

Back in West Bengal, she ousted the Communists by an opportunistic anti- industrialisation agitation. It was an outdoing of the Communists at their own game. But she never recovered her economic credibility, and West Bengal as an investment destination has languished. There are no jobs, only doles, if that. Mamata Banerjee’s national ambitions will also turn to dust after she loses her power base to the BJP. Besides, she has no political successors to speak of.

So, if the TMC loses decisively on May 2^nd, it is the last bastion fallen. After this, orphaned as they are, the minorities may need to evolve a new form of political jihad. They will have to masquerade as Modi bhakts. This Trojan Horse strategy might work for a few.  Some may even be sincere. What will not work after May 2^nd is confronting the majority.

(1,399 words)

For: The Sunday Guardian

April 15, 2021

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Rajneeti As In Upsetting The Apple Cart

When the NDA was elected in May 2014, with the first majority in 30 years, it sent shock waves through the complacent body politic. Entrenched ecosystems were suddenly orphaned, though the various were still ensconced in their positions of privilege. The only problem was they no longer had a direct line to the higher echelons.

It was infuriating for people who had ruled the roost on a bogus socialism that never alleviated poverty. These worthies had also made a profession of  sneering at the very people who were now in power, including the prime minister, risen high from extremely humble origins.

When the NDA won a second term with a comparable majority in 2019, it proceeded to consolidate its hold on the Rajya Sabha as well.

Parliamentary power to influence legislative outcomes was snatched away from the Congress Party and its like-minded friends for at least five years more. This is the singular reason that it is now agitating in the streets.

What was still a basis for smirking defiance and noisy obstruction in Modi 1.0, on the thought that the incumbent government would be ousted in 2019, did not come to pass. Instead, it began to look increasingly like the BJP alone was settling in for decades to come.

There has been some opposition defections, both amongst the politicos and their supporters in the bureaucracy, judiciary, police, academia, media, institutions. But these were just the early recognisers of the new reality.

By 2021, the speed of Congress disintegration is seen to be accelerating. Similar difficulties apply to the RJD, the SP, the DMK, even the stand-offish BSP.

The TMC, under siege from the BJP as it goes to the polls in West Bengal very soon, is the only BJP critic that still runs one of the biggest and most important states. If it is ousted from government, it will mark the fall of the last bastion. If Maharashtra returns to the BJP from the troika that rules it presently, then the circle of big states in its grasp is almost complete.

Of course, the forthcoming elections additionally in Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry will all have significant bearing on both the BJP and the Opposition for 2024. The fate of Punjab in 2022 is also something of a question mark.

Within Congress, a new pressure group dubbed the G23, made up of prominent erstwhile loyalists of the Gandhi family is trying now to oust it.

The great dismantling of Congress-laid foundations is due to the power of electoral success, but doing away with the erstwhile axiomatic bases of policy is highly significant too.

The foundations on which the Nehruvian ‘Idea of India’ was built had a legal and near brick-and-mortar aspect to it, apart from the myth and hagiography that went with it.

The peculiar status accorded to Jammu & Kashmir using the ‘temporary’ Articles 35A and 370 is gone. A lot of demographic jiggery-pokery favouring our massive minority was routinised in J&K, including the clandestine importation of Rohingyas. The creeping radical Islamisation of the J&K region was in the works for decades marking it as perennially unstable and a happy hunting ground for cross border subversion.  The entire sinister process has now been upended.

Then came the path-breaking Supreme Court ruling on the grand Ram Temple at Ayodhya. The demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1991 by hundreds of incensed Hindu nationalists, marked the rise of Hindutva politics. Ever since, the spurious secularism of the Nehruvian era has been under attack.

The Ayodhya verdict came after over a century of legal and administrative interventions.  The historical commentary on the prior existence of a temple at the site is documented by British historians from the 1600s.

The verdict, after copious final submissions, resulted in the expulsion of the destroyed Babri Masjid, and the losing side, to the outskirts of a highway leading away from the holy city. A leading Muslim archaeologist, KK Muhammed, part of the team that carried out two excavations in 1976-77 and 2003 established that the Babri Masjid, like many other such edifices around the country, including the mosque at Qutb Minar in Delhi, was built, by demolishing a much older temple complex.

The grand Ram Mandir’s foundation stone was laid by the Prime Minister himself. It will encompass over 70 acres or more around the actual new temple for gardens, a museum, a library and so on. The symbolism of the entire recreation of Ayodhya city and environs by the Uttar Pradesh state government  much beyond the temple itself, is of the greatest importance to Hindutva politics.

That process is far from complete in March 2021, but it is definitely a juggernaut on the roll. Many things like the reclaiming of other key temples at Mathura and Varanasi from the mosques that usurped them, and the establishing of a Uniform Civil Code have yet to come. This will perhaps stretch to a period beyond 2024 and a possible third consecutive term for the BJP at the centre.

But a slew of modernisation programmes, enhanced electricity, gas, water, digitisation of administrative processes and banking, atmanirbhar manufacturing, national security vis a vis China, infrastructure, diplomatic wins, economic, land, labour and agricultural reforms, are all surging ahead. So is a recovering GDP. Still, the clamour from the ousted Opposition, if anything, is getting louder.

The agricultural reforms in particular are designed to double the income of the small farmer. This is important, as even today about 60 % of the population continues to live in the rural areas and is directly or indirectly connected with agriculture. That farming is in a crisis of low yields and poor incomes resulting in much misery and a high suicide rate, is why it is urgently in need of reform.

If GST which did away with multiple cesses in favour of just one, was the signal economic reform of Modi1.0, the massive defence manufacturing and indigenous acquisition programme marks Modi 2.0 so far.

India is also accelerating its capabilities as the pharmacy to the world after the challenges of developing vaccines to fight the Covid -19 pandemic.

But the biggest beneficiary for the rural masses will come from the effects of the changed farm laws. The so-called Farmer Agitation, which has just crossed its 100^th day is due to another classic unmasking of a cabal. A group of no more than 50,000 agents, or Arthiyas, has relentlessly forced the production of wheat and paddy of questionable quality from the state of Punjab. It has forced the use of excess canal and ground water, resulting in growing salinity, and the overuse of  toxic chemical fertilisers. This, in order to extort minimum support prices (MSP) from the Government of India for produce far in excess of requirements.

They do so to earn a rapacious commission of 2.5% on all the paddy and wheat bought under MSP, for themselves. The same cabal does nothing to encourage the small farmer to grow other cash crops and vegetables which are both in demand, and could generate better incomes for them.  

The MSP system applied to the procurement of wheat and paddy, started in the 1970s so that India could become self-sufficient in these staple crops. It has long outlived its usefulness. Many other states such as Madhya Pradesh produce a better quality wheat and paddy in abundance now. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) is currently holding over 200% of its requirement of buffer food stocks despite a huge population of nearly 1.5 billion people.

The Modi government passed three farm laws which freed the small farmer from the clutches of the official state ‘mandis’ and their Agricultural  Produce market Committee (APMC). It  empowered farmers to grow what they wanted and sell the produce to whomsoever they chose at their own negotiated prices. This process is facilitated digitally via the internet, via special trains to carry produce around the country, via private contract farming, and also through the existing APMCs. But the MSP regime is no longer empowered as a monopoly.

The government has since followed up the three farm laws by stating it will only pay MSP directly into the bank accounts of the selling small farmer and not via the agents.

Early favourable results of the farm law reforms are pouring in from other states. But the Punjab superstructure of parasitical agents is effectively ruined by virtue of this legislation. Therefore, the agitations may continue despite the government’s refusal to repeal the laws. But yes, another pillar of the Nehruvian order has fallen into the dust.

 

(1,421 words)

For: Sirfnews

March 14^th, 2021

Gautam Mukherjee

 

A Changed India Wants Heroism Not Sainthood

The Quad is real even as it evolves more and more into a military alliance. It is no longer shy of its intent to check China. Not only is Biden’s America staying the course set by predecessor Trump, but in addition to the four already on board, Britain and France also want to do their bit in the Indian Ocean and beyond. Russia is standing alone in partial neutrality in the waters of the Asia-Pacific, but clearly not willing to throw in its entire lot with the Chinese either.

Member Australia used its Quad linkage most recently to push back against Facebook and Google by calling on India for solidarity. India’s own face-off with Twitter a few days prior met with signal success. If  internet merchant warriors who claim to be global and yet of no fixed address for billing and taxation purposes, are en route to being tamed, can a puffed-up (on hubris) communist China be far behind?

Extensive Covid vaccine diplomacy, plus the way India has handled the pandemic despite being a populous 1.35 billion has impressed. India is on its way to becoming the premier pharmacy to the world.

China could not get the better of India in Eastern Ladakh despite its mad muscle-flexing over half a year. Its iron-clad ally’s aggression and its terrorism, is now more or less old hat, despite the attrition and expense involved.

Aware of the relentless threat on its borders and on the seas,India is now seriously getting on with the building of guns, tanks, howitzers, aircraft, ships, submarines, ammunition and drones on home turf. This even as it is buying armaments furiously from France, Israel, the US and Russia to address the immediate situation. The real battle is for pre-eminence. India is determined to acquit itself seriously as the No. 3 global power as soon as possible, China notwithstanding.

India has come a long way in its economic thinking as well. In a post Covid world with shattered economies everywhere, bold strategies were called for. It is now declared public policy to dismantle the public sector except in a few core areas. Ditto the plethora of public sector banks which will be reduced to just four or so. The Indian Railways and their stations are being transformed. Expectation of double-digit GDP growth have resurfaced.

 The government has emphasised the role of the private sector as essential partners to progress. It has explicitly commented against the limitations of big government and a stultifying permanent bureaucracy not inclined to disturb the status quo.

This is the new template set for the third decade of the 21^st century. It is a firm departure from the shibboleths of the past. Nothing, except misadventure, can prevent India from making stellar progress now. In addition, there is a strong emphasis on infrastructure modernisation, bold reform of land, labour, industry and agriculture, and a new kind of atmanirbhar that is both pragmatic and liberating.

All this is also backed by strong FDI inflows and nearly $600 billion in foreign currency reserves. This is heading towards $ 1 trillion and more in the next decade.

Today’s BJP is fusing together the threads of a scattered identity, even as it decisively sheds ideas that were never conducive to India’s future.  Contrast these new realities with the sheet anchors from the 1940s and onwards.

 A khadi-clad Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi who drank a lot of goat milk provided by his pet goat, wrote that India lives in its villages. He advocated a quaint village economy and cottage industry as the great desirable after independence. His ideas were, of course, roundly ignored by India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, beyond some reverential tokenism. But the reverence and affection his name invoked amongst the masses, is still used extensively by the political classes to this day.

Nehru, A fifties style Laskian socialist, set about establishing smoke-stack heavy industry. He placed it firmly in the state-owned public sector, and governed via Soviet-style five-year plans. Plans, like in the USSR, that were rarely met in the execution.

Yoked to Nehru, but for a brief two years after 1947, was Sardar Patel. He was a conservative politically, and may have guided India to a more pragmatic future. But alas, after stitching together the princely states into a country, Patel had neither the time left, nor did he enjoy the unstinted support of MK Gandhi.

That both Gandhi and Patel sprang free of the mortal coil so soon after independence was to Nehru’s singular advantage. He could proceed over the next decade and a half to leave his imprint on all that was to follow.

Jack-booted Subhas Bose, whose time upon the great stage of events preceded the nation’s formal emergence into independence, also thought differently. He saw a great, inclusive, and dynamic nation in the making, fit and able to take on the colonial overlords. But his was a muscular vision of courage, military action in alliance with the Axis Powers, and discipline. Even earlier formative ideas saw Bose pushed out of the Congress Party.  If Bose had an ideological predecessor, it was probably Bal Gangadhar Tilak. Both were not working for a Hindu Rashtra, but neither did they contemplate the Nehruvian brand of secularism to come.

Then there was the much vilified and persecuted Veer Savarkar, who not only wanted the British gone, but India to adopt a clear-cut Hindu identity. Alongside, there was Syama Prasad Mookerjee, a kindred spirit from the Hindu Mahasabha, whose heroic actions saved West Bengal from going to Pakistan. Mookerjee also chalked out the way ahead for an undivided Jammu & Kashmir as an integral part of India. Despite walking the earth for a mere 53 years, Mookerjee not only served in and quit Nehru’s cabinet, he also established the Jan Sangh, that later morphed into the BJP.

Cut to the present day and the most profound difference is in the change in the thinking of the vast majority. It has seen Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity rarely dipping below 70%, and the BJP/NDA winning a clear majority in parliament in every national poll commissioned periodically by private TV news channels. This, even after six years of continuous governance through challenging times.

Nehruvian secularism seems to have run its course in the popular psyche except in the minds of those who have lost power and position.  It is seen to have given rise to a stridency amongst the largest minority, at over 14% now. This community is now openly demanding cleansing of their majority enclaves of all others and the imposition of exclusive sharia practices. This kind of behaviour, seen as rank ingratitude, has annoyed and polarised the majority, hard-pressed to keep their identity and beliefs intact. That the minorities have been supported wrong-or-right not only by the Congress Party, but others with similar views such as the TMC, has further aggravated the schism. It has distanced the majority from all those who profess to uphold the Nehruvian ‘Idea of India’.

Prime Minister Modi’s call for ‘A New India’, essentially a call for modernisation of the country’s facilities, practices, and infrastructure, and economic upliftment for all, is seen as a powerful and necessary alternative. It does not carry the baggage of the Nehruvian notions.

This, even as the BJP is remarkably ambivalent on abandoning the minorities to the sections of the Opposition that depend almost exclusively on their votes. Prime Minister Modi, flying in the face of  unchanged voting patterns in successive elections, seems to believe in his his ‘Sabka Vikas’ plank.

However, the Congress Party and the TMC paint the BJP as a communal, Hindu nationalist party. This is more commonly accepted by communists, the left-liberals, elements opposed to the BJP, at home and abroad.  

However, none of this cauldron bubbling and name-calling is turning the rulers towards abject apologia. The BJP election machinery is forging ahead collecting states that have long been opposed to it. West Bengal may well be the next big prize to fall in.

The government and the voting Indian public are no longer interested in the dubious benefits of moral victories.  Even our international cricket, wrestling, badminton, hockey, shooting and sometimes tennis, has changed in attitude. We play to win.

Today, it is the heroism and derring-do of the IAF at Balakot. And the bravery and effectiveness of the Indian Army at Galwan. And on the Chushul heights overlooking China’s Moldo garrison. These are much more potent symbols of who we are, and where we are going.

(1,412 words)

For: SIRFNEWS

February 21^st 2021

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Ramp Up Defence Production Facilities To Truly Join The Top Three

For the Union Budget 2021 to be announced on February 1^st, all commentary and advocacy is agreed that the government will have to do something extraordinary. Strong growth must be restored to the economy. This cannot just be an incremental budget citing fiscal constraints and revenue generation shortfalls.

Fortunately, the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has already indicated that the fiscal deficit will be allowed to slip. Estimates say it is already in the region of 7.5% . However, this is a very unusual time. When money needs to be invested but is scarce, there are very few options.

This country, like most others around the globe, will also have to undertake an unprecedented and expensive vaccination process for most of the population.

 The debate is on between those who want the government to promote consumption, and those who want new money spent on productive assets that will yield a return in future.

Of course, a certain degree of welfarism is hard-wired into the Indian system with its socialist moorings. It is aimed at helping the bottom 20% of the population. This must not only continue but be enhanced in value terms. But consumption led growth, which is not organic but pump-primed, will result in a temporary uptick at best.

Will it enthuse greater investment by the private sector and lift the mood of the nation? It seems unlikely. America has followed this course, putting in billions every month straight into the general economy, while maintaining a zero-interest rate regime. This has gone on from 2008 after the housing and subprime lending crash. Still, it has only yielded a survival economy by 2020, growing at 3% on consumption alright, but with a widened gap between the 1% rich, and practically all the others. Zero interest favours those who can put it to productive use. The rest just spend their money on everyday goods and services.

In percentage terms, of all fresh monies pumped in now, some 60% needs to go into productive investments. Without this, the international rating and lending agencies will see India as a fiscally irresponsible economy going forward. The question is what will be the most profitable investment. And the answer is defence production.

Armaments are high value items with strong embedded profits. India has exported Rs. 17,000 crores worth in 2018-19 (approx. 1.5 billion), up from just Rs. 2,000 crores in 2014. The target is Rs. 35,000 crores or about $5 billion annually. The gradualism of doing this in the next five years must be fast-tracked. Can it be done in 2021 itself?

The government has announced plans to invest $ 130 billion in the next 5 years on military production modernisation. Can this be completed by 2022 with the help of this fiscal deficit slippage?

 India has purchased about $100 billion worth of armaments over the last decade or $10 billion per annum pro rata. It actually needs to procure perhaps twice as much to be fighting fit in a two or even multiple front war. It actually ends up buying much less than its wish-list because of fiscal constraints.

The latest emergency annual purchase is, in fact, upwards of $15 billion. Buying more and more from domestic production after recent policy changes is helping, but every part of the exercise, particularly the efficiency and turn-around time of domestic manufacture, needs to be accelerated.

 $ 5 billion in exports achieved in short order would claw back half of the pro rata annual expenditure over the last decade. Estimates indicate India could be exporting $ 15 billion worth annually within a decade. Again, can this time-line not be crunched, given some urgent revamping of facilities and policy initiatives.

Nothing else in the possibilities, including all kinds of manufacturing relocations from China, exports of other manufactured goods including electronics, automobiles, launches of foreign satellites by ISRO, commodities, software, even comes close.

And then there is the import substitution that comes from having a highly developed armaments industry. The money spent stimulates the economy but stays in-country.  However, this is not a swadeshi call likely to truncate quality. Let us note that the imported content of armaments currently made in India is still at 40% as of 2018, though down from 48% in 2014.  The trendline is interesting. The recently cabinet approved bid to export Akash Air Defence Systems with a range of 30 km has a 96% indigenisation figure. Nine countries want to import it.

Other items we could export in short order are the Brahmos missiles, the Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launchers and the Astra air to air missiles. To meet both domestic demand from the Indian armed forces and foreign countries in a competitive time-frame, India must undertake a massive modernisation, expansion, and upgradation programme. This must stand independent of the general defence budget which is mostly consumed by establishment costs and pensions.

Besides, our overall defence budget at $70 billion presently, is dwarfed by that of China at $261 billion, let alone that of the US at $ 732 billion.  Let us note however that there is a demand for Indian armaments internationally, unlike for those from China. The Indo-Russian developed Brahmos missiles could be instant best-sellers if India decides to offer them to friendly governments configured to their specific requirements. This would also mean significant value addition.

The secret configurations of our own missiles and other exported armaments can be safeguarded. Most arms exporting countries do likewise. But no major armaments manufacturing country can sustain the massive costs involved without exports.

India already has a number of facilities serving the army, navy, airforce, logistics, ordnance and engineering requirements. These include DRDO and its 50 labs,4 defence shipyards, 8 defence PSUs and 41 ordnance factories.

In recent times, a number of private companies such as Bharat Forge, the Kalyani Group, Larsen & Toubro, the Tata Group, SSS Defence, HTNP Industries, Alpha Design Technologies, Bharat Advanced Defence Systems, SMPP Private Limited, have also entered defence manufacturing. We are developing a new Defence Corridor in Uttar Pradesh in addition to the older and more mature one in Tamil Nadu. But, as always, the private ecosystem cannot survive without orders. And presently, the orders are mostly from the Indian armed forces.  

Union budget 2021 needs bold strategies to move this country forward and into the reckoning for the future. If India buys 12% of the world’s arms exports by value, but exports just 0.17% of it, there is a huge opportunity that needs to be seized.

Initiatives already fructified such as manufacturing our own, sometimes in joint venture, nuclear and conventional submarines, stealth frigates, patrol boats, our own aircraft carrier, the light compact aircract (LCA), trainer aeroplanes that we have even offered to the US, the Arjun MK-1 A tanks we are inducting into the Indian Army, mobile bridges, bullet-proof vests, small arms, rifles, machine guns, carbines, armoured vehicles, transport vehicles - have all taught us many learnings.

If the biggest roadblock in the past was policy which did not want to develop an Indian armaments industry worth the name, then at present the only real drag is the pace at which we are proceeding to change the template. It takes massive investment, but so do the highways we are building at breakneck speed all over the country.

Our own security needs, our economic well-being, standing in the comity of nations, necessitates this dimension to our development. And the sooner we put urgent emphasis on it the better. We need to put massive resources behind the vision statement and policy changes to realise this crucial atmanirbhar objective.  

An economic power is vulnerable without a strong military supported by its own arms industry. Even if we cannot own the entire ecosphere, because of the practical necessity of not reinventing the wheel, making most parts of the armaments we produce is a valid aspiration. Global players like Boeing and Lockheed-Martin buy a lot of the componentry for their military planes from outside, sometimes international vendors. It is a highly specialised business, and no entity can do everything in-house profitably.

India is on its way from 6^th largest economy towards becoming the 3^rd largest by 2030. But renewed Chinese hostility along the LaC, constant friction with Pakistan and its terrorist infiltrators, plus internal sabotage by forces who wish to retard the economy, have made clear that defence preparedness is both good sense and good business.

(1,393 words)

For: The Sunday Guardian

January 1^st, 2021

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Implications Of The Last Minute Rescue Of A No-Deal Brexit

The last minute reprieve to a no-deal Brexit has prevented  the worst of a hard landing. The agreement that has come is the best one can have under the hard negotiating circumstances, with economic challenges facing both the EU and Britain.

It is most interesting that Protestant Northern Ireland, a part of the UK, will stay in the EU, while the rest of Britain leaves. It could therefore conceivably reunite with EIRE, very much in the EU, and leave the UK in due course. Already, there is an increased level of cooperation between Catholic Republic of Ireland and Protestant Northern Ireland.

Scotland may not like to stay in post Brexit Britain either. It voted 62% in favour of staying in the EU at the infamous 2016 referendum, but for the moment, it seems to have been contained. However, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) is without an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament at present. Should the SNP gain a majority in elections due in May 2021, there could well be a shift towards independence.

As for the joint administration of EU and British waters for fishing by both sides, it will remain to be seen how the catches are distributed. There is a formula agreed on for five years, after which British waters will become exclusive to Britain and likewise for EU waters for the Europeans.

It is a complex parting of ways, not only in matters of trade, taxation, movements, and commerce, but the untangling of the non-applicability of EU laws concerning anything in Britain and vice versa. Taxation is being largely kept neutral at present but of course this could change in future.

London, till now a major financial capital of Europe, will not be able to offer financial services into the EU henceforth without setting up on the Continent according to their laws. British qualifications may have to be overlaid with EU ones. Brexit has already seen quite a few international players relocating almost entirely across the Channel.

British manufacturing that imports parts from the EU has to stockpile rather than work on zero inventory or last-minute provisioning. Many will lose their competitive edge on the continent as a consequence.

The good news is that the UK can now go forth and enter into trade deals on its own bat with other countries, such as India. Bilateral trade is currently at a modest $15.5 billion in 2019-20.

Britain may be keen on a free trade agreement (FTA) with India which has a lucrative domestic market. This especially because an FTA with America may not fructify quite so easily or quickly. American goods could swamp the UK. Being part of the EU, it was the strain of more EU imports vis a vis British exports that  hastened the split. India on its part will be looking at high technology from Britain, joint ventures to improve our self-reliance, professional training in various fields and cooperation in the higher reaches of the Services Sector.

With Boris Johnson set to grace the occasion on our forthcoming Republic Day shortly, there may be a boost to the process.

India counts Britain as its sixth largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI). With $30 billion incoming over the last 20 years, it accounts for 6% of total FDI into India presently.

The UK will need to reorient its diplomatic relationship with India, as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have done. It will have to jettison some, if not all of its adversarial positions vis a vis Pakistani interests and those of China.

It must stop commenting on India’s internal matters, its politics, its leadership, certainly at any official level. This is necessary to clear the decks between the two countries. India is not interested in hectoring from its former colonial master, or partisan support given to a defeated Opposition.

The Leftist portions of British media and the Labour Party display a consistent hostility towards the Modi government. Calling an elected government all sorts of names is not endearing the British to the Indian establishment. Casting slurs on the majority Hindu community is also unacceptable.

India’s relative leverage to get sweeter terms as well as less interference in its internal affairs is now considerably enhanced. The various anti-India groups and lobbies that seem to operate freely in London and elsewhere in Britain will have to be reigned in.

If bold initiatives to reassure Indian sensitivities are undertaken by Britain, it will be first of all to its own benefit. Presently, India does have several alternatives such as France, Russia, the United States and Israel, for ongoing high technology cooperation, particularly in joint venture defence manufacturing.

Countries and companies relocating some of their manufacturing from China post the Covid-19 pandemic is also creating new possibilities and strategic depth.

Cooperation on the high seas, particularly in the Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific with the QUAD nations of the US, Australia, India, Japan is attracting other regional players such as Vietnam and Singapore as well.

France, Britain and Germany, Russia have also begun to contribute naval power to the region as well. All these countries are developing a common strategy to keep the international shipping lanes in the region open and unhindered by Chinese hegemony. Britain’s commitment towards this changing world order will be of particular interest to India.

While Britain as we know it now may be truncated in the years ahead, it has much to contribute by way of expertise in multiple areas to a developing India.

It will be a new relationship, based not on the erstwhile Raj or the near pointless Commonwealth, but on 21^st century realities. This as the world begins the third decade of this century. And India enters its 75^th year as an independent democratic republic.

(956 words)

For: Sirfnews

December 29^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Stock Market Flies Saffron Flag, Opposition Hates Rages

Political audacity combined with a strong organisation storms straight ahead while dominating the flanks. It is the signature action of the saffron forces, now grown familiar. It does not take anything from the style of politics and governance with its constant self-service of the last many decades.

The unequal Opposition, caught flat-footed, thrown out of the citadels of power, plays old drums and flutes - threats, intimidation, murders, booth-capturing, minority appeasement, arson, riots, lies, embezzlement.

It all worked perfectly well once, the public was none the wiser, beguiled by promises that never seemed to reach their maturity. But now there is the sullen dullness that comes with knowing one has been betrayed. It results however in arrests of the old masters under draconian laws, and attachment of their properties for recompense.

As if on another plane altogether, the Sensex, Nifty, Midcap index and even the Bank Nifty are touching new highs despite an ongoing, though reducing, economic contraction.

There is less panic into gold and silver. Less worry about major bank collapse. Some revival in real estate. New reform for the long-neglected farming sector. There is a great deal of infrastructure building. It is probably the principal driver of the Indian economy through the six years of the Modi administration.

Bold reform, obscured sometimes by strident misinformation spread by the disgraced, in the key areas of labour, land, company law, digitisation, electricity, water, social injustice has been undertaken. More and more transformation is in the offing from this determined government. Our foreign affairs and diplomacy have been completely revamped. India’s position in the world has been rebooted.

Old power brokers and middlemen, rent-seeking bureaucrats, extortionists, commission agents, benami wealth hoarders, runaways, are all under pressure. Promises made again and again in the past are being delivered upon by this government.

The North East of the country has been drawn into the mainstream. Foreign investors are pouring money into the Indian bourses and into foreign direct investment (FDI). The foreign exchange reserves are at an all-time high, close to $500 billion. Contrast this with the near bankruptcy of 1991 before the economy was liberalised.

 Now the foreign stock market players are apparently not daunted by steep  stock valuations because they are optimistic about the future. It is a liquidity rush yes, but far from mindless speculation.

There is expectation of a global end to Covid with several vaccines to tame it. And a shift of economic attention away from a very badly behaved China. It has become a predatory China, under a misguided CCP, with attitudes better suited to a long-departed age of imperialism. How much time before this 1949 born Red China comes unstuck and on its way to a democracy?

India is and will continue to benefit from standing up to China. The world has taken note. Armaments, organisation and force readiness on land, sea and air, is moving fast. Border area infrastructure is being rapidly completed. If there is a future conflict there is no doubt that India will acquit itself well.

Parts of the Opposition are seething in anger, motivated by hate and fear, unable to digest their rejection by the masses. This part of the Opposition cannot stand the idea of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP moving from strength to strength. Neither, of course, can inimical neighbours such as China and Pakistan. It is a sad thing, but parts of the Opposition have made common cause with anti-nationals, terrorists and other enemies of the nation.

The BJP has recently won decisively in Bihar alongside its ally the JD(U). It is about to repeat the performance in the border state of West Bengal plagued by Islamic aggression, terrorism and infiltration. This is openly supported by the presently ruling TMC, heavily dependent on the nearly 30% Muslim population. The demographics and the culture of the state have changed alarmingly, much to the quiet annoyance of the Hindu majority. West Bengal has enormous untapped economic potential. It is now firmly looking to the BJP for rescue. The chances of it coming to power in the 2021 assembly elections in the state gains ground every day.

On the national stage, India is showing the world not just the spectacle of the biggest democracy in action with its expert management of free elections, but also its talent for generating atmanirbhar chaos and bloodshed.

Those Communists, Leftist, Christian, Islamic, Maoist, Khalistani, Kashmiri hard-liners along with Pakistani and Chinese elements, who don’t want India to prosper, love the chaos.

But they can’t seem to make any appreciable dent by backing the weak, fractured, and rudderless Opposition. An Opposition with just a single point agenda. There is no positive or developmental vision at all that might have enthused the voters.

The arson, the loot, the street blockages, the atrocities, are funded by those who want to destroy the already hurting economy, and encourage the aggression of India’s enemies on its borders. They are not bothered about taking advantage of the damage done to the economy and health by the Covid-19 pandemic.

The lust to bring down the Modi government at any cost,  in spite of it being very popular with the voting masses, is  a difficult proposition. Admit it or not,  all the brickbats are boomeranging.

There are also substantial chunks of the non-aligned Opposition who vote with and support government initiatives. In parliament, the government’s domination in both houses is now evident. The electoral juggernaut too rolls on from the grassroot elections to panchayats, blocks, districts and city municipalities, all the way through the state assemblies and on towards the national elections.

Substantial money is coming in from near and far to fund the rabid sections of the Opposition. The protests and insurrections are well planned home productions. The return on investment though, is dismal.

Even the agent provocateurs are well known, often fiery, but ineffective. Many are out-of-office politicians, ageing, frustrated people, aided by some disgruntled state governments also in the fray. The entire bandwagon suffers from lack of credibility, rampant corruption, internal rivalries, and sheer jealousy of the success the government enjoys. It is an unequal contest, becoming more tilted against the would-be usurpers by the day.

One narrative is backed by the power of the government. The other by the powerless Opposition and its camp followers determined to trash the whole place if nothing else. The powerful government refuses to retaliate with violence. The powerless Opposition tries even greater provocation.

This has become a familiar see-saw over the last six years, in parliament, in the TV studious, in the speech-making, on the streets. There is arson, rape, murder, false news. There is a desperate scrambling for lost electoral traction, a search for  new leadership,  even as vested interests refuse to let go.

It is obvious the baton has passed decisively to the BJP and its brand of nationalist, majoritarian politics. The leadership here has dedication honesty and vision. It has an efficient organisation. The world can see it.

However, those who have lost after decades in power refuse to do so, even as they are staring at the imminent end of their line. The new year 2021 is about to dawn after a most difficult 2020. It will usher in a new decade, the third of the 21^st century.

India will prosper like never before, but it won’t be  thanks to the florid code that hid under the ‘Idea of India’. That made the majority Hindu ashamed of his grand heritage.

 Modi’s Atmanirbhar is not an inward-looking thing. It is getting out of the clutches of commission agents and needless imports. It is building a strong domestic military machine for the country’s defence and export. And this government’s ‘New India’ is a very different thing from the false secularism that preceded it. There is room in it for every nationalist of every caste, creed, region and religion, but none for those who want to destroy the country.   

(1,319 words)

For: WIONEWS

December 20^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Protest Against Farm Reform Laws Is A Conundrum Confounded

Reform in an entitled and entrenched system takes courage and commitment. The Narendra Modi government has demonstrated both in the passing of three farm laws that were long overdue. Some states and their farmers have hailed the new laws as they have begun to receive immediate benefits. These include BJP ruled Madhya Pradesh and surprisingly, given the stance taken by the party against the new laws, Congress ruled Rajasthan.

The new laws, amongst other things, have cast doubt on the longevity of the minimum support price regime going forward. Though there are no specific words to say it will be abolished or diluted. But the fact is that farmers do not have to sell their produce exclusively at government controlled mandis any more. Mandis where, the minimum support price (MSP), is operational on the procurement of all the wheat and paddy brought in. The middle-men use their influence with the government to see to it that all of it, even if the quality of some of it leaves something to be desired, is procured. There are  multiple bad practices ranging from fraudulent weighing-in, to false counts, all to manipulate the commissions they earn.

So, not insisting on bringing in the wheat and paddy and indeed all other crops, to these government controlled mandis is a potential blow to the people who control them and influence the minimum support price.

The farmers who have to pay the dictated commission to the middle-men on the MSP, can now realise more by selling directly to other merchants, exporters, processors, and end users. And the central government can be proud of having done something to stem the terminal decline of the actual farming sector.

The middle-men are naturally upset. It is an entrenched system in place for over 50 years that is being upended. They lose both income and clout if these laws work against them. They well might, though the farmer is free to continue as always. He is likely to do so for a proportion of his crop of wheat and paddy so as to keep in with the old order in parallel.

But the new laws give the ordinary farmer some options. The middle-man’s hold is so extensive at present, that the government in the states outsource their inspection and regulatory functions to them for ease of operation and, of course, a commission. The state also charges a tax on transactions at the mandis. It is said the politicians receive kickbacks and commissions too.

Rich farmers, some 6% of the total in Punjab are high consumers. They are both middle-men themselves and contracting overlords that engage poor farmers to work their own land for the lion’s share of benefits. They control remuneration and payments. They provide farming inputs and maintain never paid-up books of the poor farmers’ debt. It is another form of the abolished zamindari system of yore and essentially tyrannical.

The coming of the new laws has drawn attention to the minimum sale price (MSP) mechanism applicable to government procurement of just wheat and paddy.

It is an anachronistic rule left-over from an era of food grain shortages in the 1950s, 60s and 70s. There is no need for the government to buy and hoard so much wheat and paddy in a food surplus nation, even for strategic purposes. Much of it is sold to alcohol makers at huge losses when it becomes unfit for consumption.

In 2020 or 2021, when bumper surpluses of wheat and paddy production has been the norm from various states for several years now, it makes little sense to have an MSP mechanism at all.

But, like the varna system that was designed to facilitate occupational categories, it has solidified over time. Like the caste system, MSP too has morphed into something rigid, even as its purpose and need have vanished. Today, it supports a vast class of agents who live off the work of the farmers without doing any farming. The system disincentivises the production of other crops or vegetables too.

Paddy in particular consumes huge quantities of scarce ground water and much canal water in Punjab and Haryana. It has also created the stubble burning menace because of multiple annual crops. Paddy is a crop from heavily rain-fed areas of the country, and not native to Punjab and Haryana at all.

MSP now often acts as a maximum price, higher than the free market. It  results in huge procurent costs estimated at over rupees eight lakh crore. It artificially inflates procurement prices for the public distribution system.

The public distribution system (PDS) itself, which once catered to many people from the middle-class in addition to the poor, is no longer as important.

It was, in the years of scarcity, a means of accessing price controlled, subsidised, food items. That its grain and sugar and cereals were often sub-standard was offset by cheaper than market offerings. Items such as  heavily subsidised kerosene, was used widely for cooking and lighting in rural and semi-urban areas in those times. Now kerosene is not subsidised at all, and is in any case, no longer in vogue, after the wide advent of LPG and widespread electricity.

The PDS system and ration cards are mostly history. Most people prefer buying their needs in the open market these days. While there can be an argument for the government maintaining buffer stocks in case of crop failure or other calamity, the proportions are not to the extent that MSP produces.

Systems put in place when India suffered from acute staple food shortages have no relevance now. Surplus wheat and paddy emanating from multiple states are rotting in Food Corporation of India (FCI) godowns.

Use Of mandatory government mandis was once prescribed to prevent  private hoarding. Now, it is just a mandi with out-of-date extraordinary powers.  Money-Lenders,(Arthiyas), rule the roost, and make a virtue out of their hand-holding. They provide inputs required by the farmer, some cash, but all of it at rapacious rates of interest. Besides they take the bulk of the profits via their commissions.

Farmers do face multiple hazards from the vagaries of the weather, pests, crop failure, need for money for the next planting, other expenses, including marriages. The relationship with Arthiyas, like the village money-lender, is symbiotic. But it is also extremely exploitative. It can, of course, continue for its virtues and its familiarity, but not with the balance of power stacked so heavily in favour of the money-lenders.

Some of the slack may well be taken up by corporate demand and contract farming with better terms than the rich farmers. Digitisation and the introduction of high-speed internet into remote villages has given the farmer power to sell to whomsoever he likes. To say he is too ignorant to do a job of it is self-serving on the part of the Arthiyas. To bully the ordinary farmer to support what is a money-lender agitation along with various other disgruntled elements such as Islamists and Khalistanis is inevitable.

The Modi government has pledged that it will double farmer income. Partially, this is already happening via subsidies paid directly into the accounts of the farmers. These new farm laws may well enable farmers to grow lucrative crops and sell them directly at good prices to those who buy directly from them. Prime Minister Modi has recently declared in favour of standing firm over the farm laws. His government has decided to change the future for the ordinary farmer. Agitations by vested interests always occur when reform is afoot- but they rarely succeed.

(1,254 words)

For: Sirfnews

December 6^th, 2020

Gautam Mukherjee