Liberals & Advantage-Takers Be Warned:Trump Is Intimidation Proof!

Liberals & Advantage-Takers Be Warned: Trump Is Intimidation Proof!

Nothing about the victory of President-elect Donald Trump has   been digested by some, even eight days before his inauguration.

So yet another surreal, badly mistimed attempt to queer the pitch was essayed, as if it was still early campaign season.

It preceded Trump’s first press conference to America and the world after five months, on the 11^th.

Getting to the substance of it, Trump had, on display, his two grown sons Eric and Don Jr., his precise lawyer Sheri Dillon, heaps of legal documents (to illustrate handing over control of his businesses to his sons), and the Veteran Affairs nominee David Shulkin.

He was also roundly endorsed by Vice President-Elect Mike Pence for his ‘energy’ during the transition period.

Trump, looking rested and chipper, said he wouldn’t personally run his business empire for the next ‘eight years’.

He also made clear that military veterans who had been ‘horribly’ dealt with, will be treated much better in the forthcoming Trump administration.  

The globally covered occasion, as expected, put China once  again, on notice, both for being allowed to take commercial advantage of America, and for its militarisation of the South China Sea.

The President-elect promised to generate jobs for the ’98 million unemployed’ Americans. The days of American companies freely ‘offshoring’ are over, he said.

Trump said he believed the Russians had indeed hacked into the Democratic Party servers, in a 21^st century echo of Watergate.

He couldn’t resist gloating over some of the revelations on Hillary Clinton and other Democratic Party people the hacking had put out in the public domain.

But, he trashed the suggestion that the Russians had compromising information on him personally. And he refused to comment on his business dealings in Russia, and indeed his much sought after tax returns, saying he had already won.

Trump acknowledged the Russian contribution to his victory however, declaring that a better relationship with Russia should be seen as an ‘asset’.

Trump said the hacking epidemic was actually more widespread from ‘China’ and some other countries too. In any case, he promised to investigate, and have a report presented to him in 90 days.

The oft mentioned wall on the Mexican border to keep out illegal immigrants, would begin to be built shortly, he said, and will, either by way of ‘border taxes’, or other forms of ‘reimbursements’, be eventually paid for by Mexico.

While Trump said nothing specific on India, the need for Indian IT companies and others to go ‘on-shore’, set up or buy companies there, and employ much larger numbers of Americans is very clear.

There were comments on replacement of Obamacare, on the over-charging of the pharmaceutical industry, the cost and performance of the F-35 project being rationalised and bettered, on supreme court appointments, on the grand inauguration coming up.

The motivated but unverified canard was released on the 10^th, just a day before. It was put out by website Buzzfeed citing Russian sources via a 35 page dossier prepared by one Christopher Steele, an operative of Britain’s MI6 from the Tony Blair years.

The most salacious part of the dossier, was about a younger Donald Trump. The businessman was allegedly cavorting with Russian prostitutes in the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Moscow, involving certain sexual perversities.

Apparently, Steele was financed to gather dirt on Trump’s Russian connections by anti-Trump Republicans at first, and then by the Democrats.

In addition, elements of the outgoing Obama administration’s US Intelligence establishment, in the FBI, not only put out a two-page summary to President Obama and President-elect Trump, but allegedly leaked the entire dossier.

In addition to Buzzfeed, the contents were also amplified by CNN and the BBC. Trump pointedly thanked those in the media who refused to put out the unsubstantiated libel.

By way of contrast, all involved were scathingly berated. Trump called Buzzfeed ‘a pile of failing garbage’, CNN purveyors of ‘fake news’, and BBC ‘another beauty’, in his now trademark style.

Trump’s Press Secretary Sean Spicer came out swinging from the first moments, pointing out the report’s many inaccuracies.

And Trump’s controlled fury on the matter saw to it that most of the media steered clear of the lead balloon after the 58 minute conference.

However, the slur could have been the unexploded bomb in the room for a less confident person. The innuendo might even have competed with the authority of a phalanx of 10 American flags hung on eagle standards that Trump stood in front of.

But as it happened, it failed miserably, despite the new round of opeds stating the opposite.

Donald Trump, red tie, blue suit, and blond Dennis the Menace hairdo, underscored the message that he was tough enough for the most powerful job in the world, and could not be intimidated.  

For: ABP Live

(789 words)

January 12^th, 2017

Gautam Mukherjee

Cleaning Up The Augean Stables: Simultaneous Elections, State Funding

Cleaning up the Augean Stables: Simultaneous Elections, State Funding

Every election is determined by the people who show up- Larry J Sabato, Pendulum Swing

Before everything there has to be an admission. Are we willing to sacrifice some element of personal freedom and democratic process for faster growth and development?

If yes, then much of what follows here is worth the candle. If not, then it is an approaching encroachment, even a reengineering of our fundamental rights as citizens.

In the roiling manthan of the post demonetisation period, the near immunity of the political parties regarding their massive  anonymous cash funding stood out in sharp contrast.

It seemed as if the rule of law enumerated in the Income Tax Act was simply not applicable to the political class.

Of the nearly 2,000 registered political parties, only a few ever fought elections. What did the rest do? Were they registered only to launder black money?

Ironically, once the Election Commission (EC) has registered a political party and allocated it a symbol, it does not possess the authority to de-register it.

The largest amongst them, the Congress, the ruling party for decades past, and the presently ruling BJP, have long been opaque, even on the source of their non-cash funding.

However, the Prime Minister has now said that the public has a right to transparent disclosure of such political funding too.

Hopefully he will sponsor the legislation to make this happen. But of course, having made such a statement, he has already scored vital political points over those opposed.

In addition, this government has boldly mooted state-funded electioneering, political donations entirely by cheque, and simultaneous elections to the Centre and the States.

It sounds improbably utopian, and yet such ideas have never been spear-headed by an Indian Prime Minister before. Narendra Modi says he is determined to curb corruption and make India foreign investment friendly by way of motivation.

There have indeed been many committees on partial or complete state funding of electioneering already. Perhaps, once economic liberalisation came to our soviet style ‘planned economy’, thoughts on improving political processes followed.

There was the Indrajit Gupta Committee on the State Funding of Elections (1998), the Law Commission Report on Reform of Electoral Laws (1999), National Commission to Review the Working of the Constitution (2001), the Second Administrative Reforms Commission (2008), and the Law Commission of India Report on Electoral Reforms (2015).  

Were any of the worthy recommendations from so many studies ever implemented? The answer is no.

Advanced countries such as Germany, Austria, France, Denmark, Israel, Norway, Netherlands, Italy, Canada, Japan, Spain, Australia, South Korea, the presidential election in the US, have had partial or comprehensive  state funding of elections mechanisms in place, and operational, for 30 years now.

But, it must be said, everywhere, it has not prevented vast  raising of monies and additional spending by a candidate and/or his political party.

If state funding was intended to keep lobbies at bay, it has not worked in any of these countries, and it won’t do so here either.

But combined with white money funding, and transparency on the names of donors, amplified during the electioneering, it might yet clean up the Augean Stables and better help the voter make up his own mind.

Despite its many edges, a potentially transformative discussion on this and related issues will be tabled at an all-party meeting just before the forthcoming budget session.

Ideally, a political consensus would be desirable. But, given the polarisation along party lines and routine acrimony in parliament, this seems near impossible.

Because of this endemic mistrust of the NDA’s brute majority and its alleged non-secular agenda, new laws on electoral reform, if any, will have to be pushed through by itself.

And this, debate initiation notwithstanding, presumably only after it improves its numbers in the Rajya Sabha.

This could happen shortly, particularly if the reported approval of its demonetisation initiative continues to prevail during the five forthcoming assembly elections.

So far, the BJP has done very well in almost all municipality elections held after November 8^th.

The government’s numbers in the Rajya Sabha will be boosted enormously by 2018, if the ruling NDA wins in Uttar Pradesh.

While the EC has been pushing for various aspects of electoral reform for quite some time, it has met with very little legislative support. Conventional wisdom too dismissed the possibility as it would reduce elbow-room for the political classes.

And yet, the Modi government sees considerable advantage in it, thinking, no doubt, of 2019 and beyond.

The Prime Minister promptly welcomed the EC’s recent call to limit anonymous cash donations to political parties to just Rs. 2,000 each, asking for them to be banned entirely.

And he reiterated his call to hold simultaneous elections to the Centre and the States.

That it would save time and money, and free the government to concentrate on its work uninterrupted for five years is both compelling and undeniable.

And yet, smaller political parties argue that the elections to the Centre are fought on national issues while state elections are focussed on more localised matters.

Some political pundits argue simultaneous elections would curb India’s essential diversity, never mind the chaos and expenditure.

In addition, to club all of them may distort the voting patterns if there are pronounced swings in favour of a given party at the centre. 

The resistant are, of course, thinking of the ‘Modi Wave of 2014’ being repeated.

And so, many regional parties, facing other existential crises, afraid of being swamped in their own strongholds, are not in favour.

The decision comes more easily to a national party that runs various state governments. But this currently applies only to the BJP, to a lesser extent to the Congress, and only slightly to the nearly vanished CPM.

If Congress continues on its precipitous decline, it will leave just one national party standing to benefit.

Besides, all the implied neatness is disrupted instantly if either the central government or any of the state governments fall in the course of their tenure. As they do, owing to political tugs and pulls, quite often.

It would then imply, that to cement the process, there must be fixed tenures as well. How democratic that would be in a Westminster style parliamentary democracy as envisaged by our founding fathers, is yet another issue to mull over.

If we implement all this soon, we may have to make more changes still, probably towards a presidential form of government.

There will also have to be many practical adjustments made to make one-size-fit-all.

Some states will have to cut short their terms to fall in line, and others will need to extend theirs. However, it would only have to be done once and for all. But try telling that to an elected state government, say two years into its tenure!

The current narrative also leaves out problems such as a large number of parliamentarians and state legislators with criminal cases against them.

Legislation has already been passed to debar those who are convicted. That it still doesn’t prevent them operating via proxies, often close family members, is another evolutionary loophole of our parliamentary democracy to be tackled in future.

It all began with the grand adoption of universal suffrage in a largely illiterate country. But after 70 years, the fact that this enormously complex electoral process for almost a billion voters works so well, warts and all, is impressive by any standard.

That is should also be in need of course correction and reform is not surprising. Particularly since the need to grow economically is essential to poverty alleviation and present day aspiration.

Getting rid of some enormously expensive and disruptive electoral freedoms will not take away anything from the people. However, the jury may be out amongst the much pampered political class.

For: The Sunday Guardian

(1,292 words)

January 11^th, 2017

Gautam Mukherjee

Will Jaitley Halve Corporate Taxes On 1st February?

Will Jaitley Halve Corporate Taxes On 1^st February?

Key Indian financial policy inputs have come from a series of highly qualified US-backed World Bank(WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington think-tank/American academia nominees, for over 25 years now.

The latest buzz from such quarters is the suggestion that India should halve India’s corporate tax from near 30% to a 15 to 18% band. This may be less than Pune think-tank Arthakranti asking for its abrogation, but it has gained urgency after the upset Trump presidential victory.

Not only is Republican Trump a life-long businessman used to making hard-nosed deals, but he is clear that it must be beneficial to America in his new take-no-salary-for-the-job avatar.

He wants to ‘Make America Great Again’ and is already under pressure to reduce US corporate taxes to 15% likewise. This, to fulfil his pledge to retain, if not return, manufacturing to American shores.

He also proposes to renegotiate trade terms with China, and India could do well by standing by as a worthwhile alternative.

India, similarly looking for ‘Make in India’ high-tech and mammoth defence manufacturing projects, does have a wage cost advantage if it drops its taxes, despite increasingly wide use of robotics.

The promise of massive state-of-the-art military equipment manufacturing for the Indian Armed Forces and export is most alluring.

Several reports have said that our chaotic demonetisation process was also carried out at American behest to promote a profitable digitisation push, the largest on earth.

The suggested reduction of corporate taxes could well follow on, as early as budget presentation day on February 1^st 2017.

If so, it is sure to be amplified by the roll-out of the online General Sales Tax (GST) regime later in the year.

The Indian citizen is used to gaining lateral benefits arising out of such global diplomacy. But this time it could come with an expected lowering of income tax rates, or even its abolition, to be replaced by a universal bank transaction tax.

The Indian Government, in need of international support led by the US after the USSR went into decline, has tamely acceded to this influence over the years. This even as China rose and rose simultaneously, to eventually pose a challenge to US supremacy.

It might be a form of hegemony, but certainly no worse than the erstwhile command and control Soviet version, or a possible Chinese domination.

Being capitalist in refrain, it is also the most political way to bring about economic reform here, giving our politicians a chance to shrug and abdicate responsibility.

We would have otherwise stayed hog-tied to a history of welfare sop socialism, still most popular with Indian netas, and Stalinist trade union strangleholds. Think of the fireworks expected from the reformist hire and fire labour law on the anvil!

Prime Minister Modi may put India first, but today our military ally America cannot be denied for the sake of an indifferent status quo. 

This particularly when our other key military collaborator Russia, and oil supplier Iran, have already joined the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). They need its benefits, irrespective of Indian sensitivities.

Pakistan has even had the cheek to ask India to join, even as the CPEC runs through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Besides, the only hope of slowing the CPEC juggernaut and giving the Indo-Japanese-Iranian Chabahar port a chance, is via US diplomacy. More so, because Trump has little use for the United Nations (UN).

And this applies to Indian hopes of joining the NSG despite China publicly frowning on India’s successful Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) programme.

Besides, we owe our very first stage of liberalisation, the dismantling of the Licence-Permit Raj in 1991, to this benign dictation from Washington.

The citizens of India have got the luxury of personal options, much greater prosperity, progress, infrastructure modernisation, GDP growth, all thanks to this American influence.

This thought invasion-from-the-inside phenomenon is more or less an open secret, despite professions of a heightened nationalism under the present regime.

And it persists, even though India’s reliance on aid and the lending of multi-lateral agencies, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and BRICS Bank, has reduced or stopped over the years.

We now favour the aggressive promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI), and presently it is indeed at unprecedented highs.

Nevertheless, these distinguished policy wonks continue to be air-dropped into the Finance Ministry, the erstwhile Planning Commission, the current Niti Aayog, the Reserve Bank etc. happily, to open up the taps some more.

The process began after the Indira Gandhi era, ever since 1985. Young ‘Computerji’ Rajiv Gandhi, as Prime Minister, started the ideological opening up during the presidency of Republican Ronald Reagan, much admired by Donald Trump.

What does America gain from it? Access to one of the biggest markets in the world, and yes, hegemony in an important geopolitical sphere in Asia.

So Finance Minister Arun Jaitley who had pledged to bring down corporate taxation to 25% over five years, may have to get his skates on.

For: ABP Live

(822 words)

January 6^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee    

What Will We Do With All The Cash In The Banks?

What Will We Do With All The Cash In The Banks?

Almost all of the 86% by value of the demonetised cash in circulation is safely deposited in the banks. As 2017 wakes up and begins to stir, the cash economy has chosen to seamlessly join the official one.

Now the challenge for the Government is not only to catch whom to tax at penal rates, but to use this money to stimulate growth afresh.

Even before demonetisation, the private sector, unhappy over high interest rates, had been sitting on the side-lines.  It was the Government’s own infrastructure spending that was keeping the GDP rates growing.

The methodology envisaged now is to lend much more cheaply and widely than before.

This should encourage industry, agriculture, services, infrastructure, manufacturing, trading, consumption of white goods, two-wheelers, cars, housing.

Adding on to the stimulus of the 7^th Pay Commission and one- rank-one-pension (OROP) initiatives, the economy should benefit substantially going forward.

The public-sector unit(PSU) banks no longer have a statistically significant non-performing asset (NPA) problem. This even as a lot of it was attached to bottle-necked infrastructure loans, now largely untangling via fresh permissions and funding.

Both PSU banks and private ones have already slashed lending rates by 0.9%. This without waiting for the expected 50 bps repo rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which should lower them further still.

Conversely, deposit rates will also be cut. This may force risk-averse fixed deposit investors to seek other, better yielding avenues. Will this hurt bank liquidity? It remains to be seen.

To cushion the blow, the Government has fixed an 8% yield for senior citizens. It is also holding the deposit rates steady for small savings schemes at post offices.  

The ongoing cash shortage due to slow remonetisation is also acting as a brake on inflation. It is doing so more effectively than the high-interest rate regimes of the past, which only choked off credit.

The Modi Government plans to permanently reduce cash in circulation to hamper the revival of the parallel economy. This too will force mainstreaming of many erstwhile cash businesses.  

With the momentous roll-out of online general sales tax (GST) country-wide, more business/industry will be inescapably conducted through official channels.

This integration will yield much more indirect tax in value terms, though it accounts for two-thirds of the total anyway.

Direct taxes from individuals and corporates yield the remaining third, but there is potential for a quantum jump if a universal bank transaction tax comes about instead.

The ‘Make in India’ lobbyists, said to be mainly from the US, are pressing the Modi Government to lower corporate taxes at one fell swoop to a 15-18% band. However this is a far cry from the 30% plus prevailing at present.

The Government could be tempted, because it would  encourage massive foreign direct investment (FDI) into defence manufacturing and create lakhs of skilled jobs.

FDI is already at an all-time high, attracting more than China, but still far from massive.

There is also a persistent demand, that failing its abolition, individual income taxes should be reduced. This would both encourage compliance and increase the tax base, especially now that many more people find their money dragged into the bank.

If there is ‘unaccounted money’ in the calabash, an estimated three lakh crore, nestling amongst the kosher deposits, it is obviously determined to make a valiant effort at explanation.  

None of it has been extinguished. This implies that large tranches of black money are simply not kept in cash. Ergo the amounts that have been put in the bank can be explained.

More so, if this freshly laundered money is broken up into little bits and many heads. The tax man, all too few in number, given the size of this task, has his work cut out for him.

Besides, quite a lot has round-robinned straight back into cash, but in the compact new Rs. 2,000 notes, courtesy the back doors and after-hours.

There is anger with regard to the nearly 2,000 political parties that can deposit all their cash and claim it is from anonymous donors paying in Rs. 20,000 or less. But Modi seems sincere about his avowals to reform political funding next.

Right now, the Government is basking in the glow of public approval despite the discomforts of ‘notebandi’ visited on many. It is therefore keen on a political dividend in the forthcoming assembly elections after sweeping municipalities around the country.

Accordingly, it has refrained from more disruption by going after gold stashes and benami property till further notice.

For: ABP Live

(750 words)

January 5^th, 2017

Gautam Mukherjee

Is Modi Going To Ban Cash Donations To Political Parties?

Is Modi Going To Ban Cash Donations To Political Parties?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in an impassioned campaign speech in Kanpur on December 19^th , some six weeks before a slew of state  assembly elections are expected, has put the cat amongst the pigeons. 

He hinted at motivated opposition to his moves, and not only for the ‘notebandi’.

He said the Opposition also appeared to be against curbing cash funding of political parties, and holding all state elections together with the general elections once every five years.

The Prime Minister’s remarks on reforming political funding assume special significance, coming almost immediately after the Election Commission’s suggestion of restricting anonymous cash donations to just Rs. 2,000 each instead of the current cut-off at Rs.20,000.

Was the Prime Minister raising the topic because he may be thinking of amending the Income Tax law with regard to cash donations to political parties?

That this will resonate very well with the public is certain as most analysis indicts political funding as the main generator and depository of black money.

In his Kanpur speech, Narendra Modi said that the Opposition disrupted the functioning of the entire Winter Session of parliament so that no discussion on these important topics could take place.

By this he indicated his preference for consensus on such important changes, but with an opposition determined to back the status quo, the NDA may well have to use their majority in the Lok Sabha instead.

Also, it will be easy to implement as a money bill amendment to the relevant section of the IT Act.

In the tumultuous session of parliament just concluded, the government did manage to get a section added to the Income Tax Act, again as a money bill, with regard to people depositing black money after the demonetisation, and it being taxed at 50%.

The Finance Ministry also recently reacted to false news reports that all political donations were tax free, and their deposits into the bona fide bank accounts of political parties, even in the discontinued notes, would not even be scrutinised.

The government clarified that the tax exemption for political parties was in terms of the existing and relevant clauses in the Income Tax Act. But, even in this old provision, all political parties had to maintain books of accounts for every donation in cash or cheque, and records of its expenditure, duly certified by a chartered accountant.

Without this, the tax exemption would not apply. However, most commentators thought the special tax treatment to political parties and others like trusts and NGOs should now be done away with.

And the Prime Minister may now be voicing the peoples’ will, particularly with regard to the ending of cash donations to political parties.

The BJP has meanwhile also asked all its MPs to internally declare how much of the demonetised notes they had each deposited into their individual accounts after the cut-off date of November 8^th.   

It appears, said the Prime Minister, that instead of working for the honest citizen and the poor, the Opposition was more interested in shielding the corrupt.

Prime Minister Modi said he was fully aware of the difficulties being faced by ordinary people all over the country due to shortage of new notes.

He reiterated that the situation would begin to ease after December 30^th , as promised by him, after a period of 50 days from the initial announcement.

But while honest citizens were facing hardships, the Prime Minister acknowledged, the corrupt had managed to ‘purchase’ bank officials to convert their own money via the back door.

Here too, independent auditors have been called in at the urging of the RBI and the Finance Ministry to look into irregularities and pinpoint responsibility.

Prime Minister Modi positioned the BJP firmly against corruption in all its forms and thanked the people for their patience.  But by mentioning the sold-out bankers in his speech, he implied that they would not be spared.

Clearly this is a time of transformation for substantial gains expected by the government in the medium to long term. But benefits of demonetisation and related initiatives were meant for the honest citizenry only, said Modi.

He described many of the steps taken towards digital and cashless transactions and how the government is incentivising such usage both for the customer and the trader or service provider.

Modi was at pains to point out that the privileged and corrupt had been exposed by demonetisation and the coming days would reveal details of many of their financial misdeeds.

Many middle-men and facilitators such as jewellers are being caught with illicit currency and bullion every day by the Enforcement Directorate (ED), and other investigative agencies.

None of the corrupt would be spared, Modi said. And by this, he meant the privileged political class, never targeted before, as well.

It is a political class that has been long used to shielding each other from the laws of the land. This, whether they were in power or not, in the government or the opposition.

Or even if they had lost their elections now, but had been elected or nominated representatives of the people in the past.

To illustrate the point, the NDA government has had to evict over a hundred politicians and senior officials who had hung on to palatial government accommodation long after their terms in office ended. This they were able to do because of the collusion of the  previous governments.

There has always been, a different application of the laws of the land for various sections. A lenient treatment was meted out to those who had status, influence, and wealth. A heavier application of the laws altogether was reserved for the poor and powerless. And there was a virtual immunity for the mighty politician, bureaucrat, or judge, in, or out of office!

If Modi succeeds in changing this ethos, via his multiple reforms, for a more egalitarian approach, he will certainly bring about a revolution of modernity and enduring progress.

The public at the Kanpur rally seemed ecstatic with what Modi was saying, but uncertain too, because this is all uncharted territory.

Never in the history of independent India has such a cleansing been attempted.

The results to date are indeed unclear, but judging from the enthusiastic crowds listening to the Prime Minister, people are most hopeful.

A transformation of the Indian economy, its practices, and most importantly, the elected, nominated and official establishment, seems very much on the cards.

Reports are also coming in on substantial income tax reliefs for the middle classes in the forthcoming budget. While this may fall short of the abolition of direct taxes, it is nevertheless likely to be welcomed by all.

For: Nationalist Online English

(1,103 words)

December 19^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee

India's Military Deterrence: Iron Domes & Missiles First

India’s Military Deterrence: Iron Domes & Missiles First

If India’s Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) has succeeded at anything, it is in the developing of missiles. This stands out in contrast to the tardiness and failure in many of its other projects.  

‘Missile Man’ Dr. APJ Abdul Kalam, kicked off India’s Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP). He did so in 1982, and went on to become President of the republic much later.

Nuclear missile systems already inducted into the armed forces began with the Prithvi surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and the naval variant Dhanush.

This was followed by the Agni I-III medium-to-long-range ballistic missile variants.

The Agni IV with a range of 3,500 Km. is at final stages of its test runs, and so is Agni V. There are also nuclear capable missiles from the K Series, developed for India’s first indigenous nuclear submarine Arihant.

Agni V is about to be inducted into the Indian Army. When this happens, India will join the US, China, Britain and France, as the only countries with the technology to manufacture  Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).

This Indian ICBM is ‘canisterised’ and road-worthy. The Agni V costs about $7 million each. It can carry a payload of 1,500 kg of nuclear warheads. It has a range of at least 5,000 km using three stage solid fuel engines.

The first test on Agni V was carried out in 2012, and again in 2013. The last one was in 2015. All were accurate and successful per specified performance parameters. Probably the final one is expected to take place any day now.

The Agni V can carry 2-10 multiple nuclear warheads meant for different targets simultaneously, separated by hundreds of kilometres.

This technology-multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV), has also been developed in-house.

The Agni V’s declared range of 5,000 Km. puts areas of northern China within reach. But logistics and the vulnerability of moving the 17.5 metre long 50 ton 2 metre diameter missile, might call for stationing some of them in strategically placed underground silos.

The Agni V was nevertheless designed specifically for transport by road with its ‘canister-launch missile system’. 

India has a no-first use policy. But the Agni V will provide it a devastating second-strike capability.

The Agni V and the Ashvin supersonic inceptor missile launched successfully in May 2016, are the latest illustrations of India’s indigenous military manufacturing capabilities.

Combined with India’s nuclear weapons, it is mainly the missile programme that is rearranging the strategic calculations vis a vis both Pakistan and China.

Other joint-venture conventional systems include the Mach 2 Brahmos supersonic cruise missile developed with Russian collaboration. And the Indo-Israeli long-range naval surface-to-air missile Barak 8.

India was debarred for years from accessing advanced missile building technology by the fledgling Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).

This happened  from 1988, after the first Prithvi short-range ballistic missiles were test-fired. But the restrictions spurred the development of indigenous technology. And despite its slow but consistent success over the decades, India maintained a solid non-proliferation record throughout.

This has now ushered it into the presently 35 member MTCR, in June 2016. India can now freely acquire and share missile technology with other members.

The Chinese are eyeing the Agni V warily. They think it has a range of 8,000 km, making it capable of targeting a much wider arc. 

However, both China and Pakistan do have their versions of ‘Iron Dome’  missile shields in place to guard themselves at home. But, it is not inpenetrable. Neither are inceptor missiles foolproof.

War theatres have shown interceptors can only stop some of the incoming barrage, and often get confused between payloads and debris.

Then state-of-the-art US-made Patriot missiles with Israel could only stop 10% of earlier generation Scud missiles lobbed by Iraq. This was during the 1^st Gulf War.

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) too has done well in the development of satellites and satellite launching technology. Some of India’s tracking satellites are also capable of providing early warning on enemy missile attacks.

There have been considerable advances on missile shields since the 1^st Gulf War. America has its THAAD’s. India has placed an order for Russia’s most advanced S-400 Triumf air defence missile system.

It already has other Russian-made missile defence systems in place to provide cover to six of its main cities, including Delhi.  DRDO is working on a secret weapon- the Kilo Ampere   Linear  Injector (Kali). It seeks to emit powerful pulses of Relativistic Elecctron Beams (REB) to destroy the electronics of incoming missiles, thereby stopping them in their tracks.

And so the critical cat and mouse technological one-upmanship goes on.

For: SirfNews

(762 words)

December 18^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee