Can The Gulf States Defend Themselves Without the US?

On the very first day of the current conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran on 28^th February 2026, the Iranians claimed they knocked out the over $ 1 billion worth of AN/FPS-132 missile defence radar. It warns of incoming aerial threats and guides America’s state-of-the-art THAAD missiles.

In India, we chose the Russian S-400 over the THAAD, braving possible US sanctions, and it has proved to be very effective and at cheaper cost. THAAD vs S-400 and S-500 has been demonstrated in the Russian Ukraine War as well.

That reports say Iran destroyed the billion dollar radar with a $ 20,000 Shahed drone. This has been the huge mismatch in this war.

Shaheds in their thousands, versus America’s Tomahawks and other missiles that cost millions of dollars. Of course, Iran used ballistic and hypersonic missiles as well, but partially to wear out the Israeli Dome and other air defences. In many ways America did not prepare well for this war before launching into it.

This radar attack was at America’s major naval base at Manama, Bahrain. The Americans denied the loss, and said a much less important installation was hit, even as satellite pictures showed substantial damage at the naval base in addition. There is a lot of misinformation from both sides and sometimes no information at all.

Compare this patchy performance with the effectiveness of multiple and varied indigenous and imported air defences controlled by the Indian Air Force during Operation Sindoor.  Amazingly, they ensured not a single Pakistani missile, mostly of Chinese origin, or the Turkish supplied drones, did any damage to any military bases or civilian targets, including the Golden Temple at Amritsar. Indian missiles including the famed BRAHMOS devastated Pakistani targets and destroyed their Chinese-made air defences.

Israel, meanwhile, also on day one, wiped out the supreme leader and a large number of the top leadership in Tehran using very powerful bombs. It expected this decapitation of Iran’s top-drawer leadership would collapse the ruling regime. It is what happened in Venezuela but the Islamic regime in Iran is very different.

This notion was clearly premature in Iran’s layered system. And now, very importantly, the intelligence gathered by the US and Israel seems to have fallen short of the locations of hundreds of missiles and drones stored by Iran in reinforced tunnels underground, all over the country. This in addition to over 400 Kg of enriched weapons grade uranium that remains secreted.

The US and Israel should have anticipated this, because the Hamas in Gaza, inspired, financed, and armed by Iran, also held out for a very long time using their network of tunnels and underground storage facilities.

Meanwhile, after 17 days of this war, the pounding of Iran from the air continues, after its air defences and out-of-date air force was knocked out early in the day. But, a daily quota of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel, the American forces on sea and land, and the countries of the Gulf keeps raining down using a decentralised system.

The US, Gulf states and Israeli air defences are too expensive for the showers of inexpensive Iranian Shahed drones and expendable ballistic missiles. America is just beginning to retaliate likewise with its Lukas drones and Laser weapons, but this has come late and is another glaring intelligence failure. Billions of dollars have been spent but Iran’s regime is still able to fight back. There are hints of much heavier duty missiles still in stock as well.

The real issue is not whether American bases are required in the Gulf because that is a foregone conclusion, but their unpreparedness in the face of superior Iranian strategy and tactics.

The Gulf countries, shaken by the violence, are now keen on the Americans finishing the job of ousting the Iranian regime. They have overcome their earlier ambivalence and are much more alert to incoming attacks.  

The Islamic regime has been in power for 47 years and most recently survived a savage attack on its nuclear facilities by the US and Israel less than a full year ago. They have apparently been preparing for another attack ever since.

The Gulf States have afforded US military bases in most of their countries for decades now, ever since West Asia became independent from erstwhile British rule before WWII. Some still have British and French bases as well. Among other reasons, this is because with low native populations, even their armed forces are manned, trained and officered to a large extent by expatriates. This was long felt to be clearly inadequate.

However, despite the American military presence in multiple countries all over the Gulf, tasked by the host countries to be defensive in nature rather than as pads for offensive military action, Iran has been able to play havoc with them.

It has penetrated US air defences, attacked and significantly damaged assets, and caused combatant casualties, using waves of drones and missiles. Iran has also recently knocked out six of the US refuelling planes necessary for the fighter aircraft and bombers flying long missions. The Russians and Chinese are said to be providing locational intelligence, weapons and spare parts to Iran.

 This destruction is happening not only at the American bases including at a massive airbase in Qatar, another in Saudi Arabia, yet another in Kuwait, and a naval base in Bahrain that houses its 5^th fleet.

In addition, Iran has swiftly attacked oil assets including refineries and storage tanks, terminals for loading the oil and gas into tankers, buildings, other facilities, much more widely in all the host countries. This, to punish them for hosting American bases and spiral oil prices out of control as production facilities shut down to limit damage. Even as the true extent of the damage done to Iran is masked, the regime is setting stiff terms for the end of the war and demanding the US bases be removed. They know that next time it won’t be so easy.

The Iranian strategy has been to widen the war to include the Gulf states and others farther afield including bases, houses, and embassies in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Iraq, Lebanon, sometimes using proxies.

In addition, Iran has blocked the Straits of Hormuz except to select vessels from China, India, Pakistan on a case-by-case basis after negotiations The Straits of Hormuz is the narrow artery through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas reaches elsewhere. Oil prices have risen to over $ 100 a barrel and threaten to rise higher. The Iranians are set to have mined the straits and are capable of drone and explosive laden boat attacks despite the destruction of most of its navy. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to Yanbu and a terminal on the Red Sea but it  has limited carrying capacity and cannot meet all the demand.

For Iran, the main enemy continues to be Israel and the US after the start of the third week of this current war, but all their allies are declared targets of the regime in Iran and its IRGC fighters in particular, not only in the theatre of war in West Asia, but elsewhere in the world. Even American companies in West Asia have been declared as targets.  At the same time, America’s European allies have been most reluctant to get involved in this war. The economic damage is rivalling the military toll with no end in sight. It is clearly up to America to finish what they have started with a Prince Pahlavi waiting to provide a transitional government. Another school of thought is calling for a ceasefire and negotiations. The realistic assessment is that a ceasefire does not mean this war wont flare up again after a pause.  

Iran did fight Iraq to a standstill for eight years not very long ago. In earlier centuries there have been 30 year and 100 year wars too. It did not mean that both sides fought continuously, but they did fight to an eventual resolution.

(1,327 words)

March 17^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee