Why Iran India Russia Must Cut Through South Caucuses Conflict For the Sake Of Its Multimodal INSTC From Chabahar To Europe

Ebrahim Raisi, the former president of Iran, recently lost his life along with Iran’s erstwhile foreign minister and several others, in a helicopter crash near the Iran-Azerbaijan border. It was soon after inaugurating a joint dam project with the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. The dam is an example of the Islamic neighbours cooperating to mend fences. And perhaps a getting away from dependence on a weaker, less prosperous, largely Christian Armenia. The  North-South Corridor plans have paramount importance.

Like India, Iran has had cordial relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. This has been vitiated somewhat by Azerbaijan’s strident demonstrations of solidarity with its allies Turkiye and Pakistan. However, the lightning overnight capture of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan in 2023, has decisively changed the power equation in the region.  

France lined up In October 2023 to offer military help to Armenia. There is a large ethnically Armenian population in France. Armenia is also vaguely supported diplomatically by the US and Western Europe, and this infuriates President Aliyev in Baku. But before France could act, the game seems to be over for Armenia.

India has been a major arms supplier to Armenia, but is deeply interested in seeing the North-South Corridor into fruition. It has not said anything in support of Armenia after its failure to capture Nagorno-Karabakh for itself. As many as 100,000 ethnic Armenians have been pushed out of Nagorno-Karabakh as refugees bound for Armenia in the conflict. There are credible allegations of genocide and ethnic cleansing perpetrated by Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, the province has been merged with Azerbaijan as of end 2023.  

Russia has military bases in Armenia, and a defence deal with it. But it failed to supply an order for $ 400 million for fresh arms to it. Most of Armenia’s armaments are Russian in origin, leading on from the days of the USSR, when  both Armenia and Azerbaijan were part of it. Russia is unable to honour its defence commitments to Armenia at present, preoccupied with its own war in the Ukraine.

It is therefore India-made artillery, missiles, anti-tank weapons, radar, and ammunition that has been arming Armenia, much to Azerbaijan’s displeasure. Still Armenia has not been able to win with these purchases, while Turkish origin armed drones have cost them dearly.

India has just won a ten-year contract, after interminable US sanction bred delays, to manage and develop Chabahar Port in South East Iran near the Afghanistan border. The US has now quickly indicated it is unlikely to sanction India over this move. This signals a possible easing up on the US sanctions on Iran and their propensity to distort relationships between countries as they get around them.

Azerbaijan, mineral rich, is supplying petroleum to India. Trade between the two countries has grown substantially, till it is India’s 5^th largest trading partner. Azerbaijan is supported in turn by Pakistan and Turkiye. Turkiye’s military equipment, particularly its drones, one of which spotted the wreckage of the ill-fated Bell helicopter carrying former President Ebrahim Raisi, is not to be sniffed at.

 And China, with its still alive, if battered, belt and road ambitions, does stand militarily behind Pakistan and its ability to be of help. This accounts for the  likely supply of JF Thunder 17 fighters to Azerbaijan. Others from NATO member Turkiye are also in the offing.

Turkiye, under President Erdogan, dreams of restoring, at least in part, wherever it can, its influence from the days of the Ottoman Empire. Turkiye also has significant influence with Russia on the other side of the Black Sea. However the elderly Erdogan is facing serious headwinds in his earlier rock-solid popularity. Rhe country is grappling with run away and rampant inflation. There could be regime change there before too long.

The sea, road, rail, pipelines, and other multimodal connectivity to Europe via Russia from Iran, could route through either land-locked Armenia or Azerbaijan, or sectionally, to avoid instability, through both. However, Armenia may not be able to withstand Azerbaijan’s aggression even in future. And it has not been able to develop its internal infrastructure to save time and make itself the more attractive choice.

However, India has thought, till lately, that it was kosher to export arms to Yerevan (Armenia), that supports it in diplomatic fora on Kashmir and other issues. France entering the picture with promises of military help to Armenia in October 2023. This, also put pressure for a resolution of the conflict between the South Caucasus neighbours. But it took a decisive turn and France’s offer of help may have come too late.

A breakthrough of sorts between the two South Caucuses countries for a lasting peace may be on the cards. Armenia and Azerbaijan, both said on May 16^th this year that they had agreed a deal on their disputed border. Armenia will return the villages of Baghanis Ayrum, Ashaghi Askipara, Kheyrimli, and Ghizilhajili, seized by it in the 1990s. Azerbaijan’s decisive seizure of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 ended three decades of rule by Armenian separatists.

As recently as in 2023, India, Iran and Armenia created a trilateral to boost the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) connectivity. This follows on from the 2002 agreement between India, Russia and Iran to create the 7,200 km long INSTC. Azerbaijan became part of INSTC in 2005, with a shorter, better connected, and economical route. Its well-developed railways and a strategic seaport at Baku are clear advantages. It has also spent billions on modernisation and electrification of its railway lines. It paved the way for the western route of INSTC that runs west of the Caspian Sea. This links Chabahar and Bandar Abbas ports in Iran to the vast railway network of Eurasia, especially between Baku-Tbilski-Batumi.

Azerbaijan has invested heavily in modernising its railway network to serve as a hub for the north-south and east-west trade.  This Western route is also called the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR).

Besides, the INSTC route via Armenia’s Syunik province crosses the Zangezur Corridor, an important connector that links Azerbaijan to its enclave Nakhchivan. The territorial viability of this route is also in question and both Turkiye and Azerbaijan have raised objections.

Azerbaijan may have links with Pakistan that are disturbing to India, but it also has links with Israel that are troubling for Iran. And yet, Iran is also finding ways to cooperate with Azerbaijan.  Both countries may have preferred to work with Armenia, but ground realities are pressing, and they cannot afford to jeopardise the INSTC.

The Caucuses have been a troubled area with rival countries jostling for advantage in most of recent history as the Ottoman overlordship crumbled at the turn of the 20^th century.  News of Armenia-Azerbaijan came to the world from the savage Crimean War that made the progenitor of the Red Cross, Florence Nightingale famous. It led, at the time, to an influx of Armenians into the British-Indian capital of Calcutta, where the Armenians went on to distinguish themselves as businessmen and builders of ‘The Paris of the East’. The Armenians, who built their church, school and cemetery in Calcutta, largely left India when it gained its independence from Britain in 1947. They scattered, from Armenia, and the breaking British empire elsewhere, to different parts, including France.

(1,203 words)

May 23^rd, 2024

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee