A See-Saw Election Favouring Congress That Wants To Do Without An Alliance With the JDS

At 10.30 -11.00 am on the 13^th of May as the seventh to eighth rounds of counting was ongoing, the Congress Party was clearly ahead in the Karnataka assembly elections. The Karnataka electorate, true to form, was getting ready to change horses after the end of the BJP term in office. BJP could not beat anti-incumbency of a strong order, unlike in the minor disgruntlement in Gujarat.

Congress was ahead by two seats beyond the half way mark of 113, given that one person will exit to become the Speaker. However, for the stability of the incoming government, the Congress tally needs to be better than 120. As the counts progress, these figures could well be achieved, and Congress Party commentators are quietly saying so.

At 1 pm. Congress had 128 seats, a little later, 132, prompting a euphoric CM aspirant and probable Siddaramaiah, to  address the press. He not only expressed pleasure at the results, beaming throughout as fire crackers were let off, but waxed eloquent. He suggested this election was important as an indication that the people of India wanted the Modi government out at the centre too. He said multiple rallies addressed by Prime Minister Modi were to no avail in Karnataka. With Opposition unity, the BJP could be ousted at the Centre, and Rahul Gandhi could become prime minister.

How all this, designed to please the Congress high command, will sit with other aspirants in the Opposition, is the question.

This figure of 132 seats won is just as well, as the Congress can now launch its government without any fear of defection or erosion of its majority for other reasons.

The only way the Congress government in Karnataka could crumble now is if there was a major split due to internal rivalries, a possibility that the BJP could well look into, given its past record.   

The anti-incumbency affecting the BJP has restricted it to under 70 seats. The charges of rampant corruption and lack-lustre leadership have bitten deep, as has the partial abandonment of the critical Lingayat community. Apparently, certain Lingayat Mutts were angered by demands for commission as kick-backs from the monies paid to them by the BJP government.

A ‘double engine’ sarkar with an incompetent, weak, corrupt, local engine, clearly does not work. With the media saying so for long in the lead up to the elections, why did the BJP leadership choose to ignore this ground reality? They not only lost the support of some of the Lingayats, but also the tribals that had voted solidly for the BJP in 2018.

Party President JP Nadda and Home Minister Amit Shah have to introspect and course correct. It is not enough to use the charismatic Prime Minister Modi at the penultimate moment to compensate for all local problems. In the end, it ends up embarrassing him too.

The forthcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are all direct contests between the BJP and Congress. The BJP is now seen as vulnerable, their strategies ineffective and in disarray. The Opposition can feel strengthened with Congress as its national pivot provided this can be sold to the regional satraps.

If BJP is not able to reverse its losing streak in the remaining assembly elections before the general elections of 2024, it may be in trouble for them as well. Even on a post-election basis, assuming the ultimate leadership issues are not solved in advance, the Opposition could come together to oust the BJP unless they win a majority of the seats.

Can the BJP, perceived by many as arrogant, looking at two losses in a row, after Himachal Pradesh, both in direct one-on-one battles with the Congress, learn from this one?

In both elections, Congress stuck closely to local issues and offered well designed incentives and sops for the people. These were apparently appreciated by the voters, most recently the so-called ‘five guarantees’ in Karnataka. BJP did not change strategy in response.

And with an increasingly remote High Command, many of the BJP’s core voters feel let down. They voted for a Hindutva promoting party, and not one that is increasingly wooing the minorities with little result.

The past tells us that assembly elections have often been decided on local considerations and national issues do not have much resonance. The same people generally vote differently in Lok Sabha elections, but is the Narendra Modi led BJP going into elections in 2024 representing its core voter interests? Items such as the Uniform Civil Code are only promised at election time in state after state and then quietly shelved.

Many seem to think Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath In Uttar Pradesh is doing a better job at what the core BJP voter expects, than the Modi-Shah combine at the Centre.

The loss of Karnataka is a loss of BJP’s only gateway to the South of India, except for an NDA presence in Pondicherry, and the impact of this loss will be profound. With talk of a breakaway Republic of South India, possibly as a pressure tactic, Rahul Gandhi’s notions that India is a ‘Union of States’ and mention of Karnataka’s ‘sovereignty’ by Sonia Gandhi in a recent speech, the implications can be ominous.  

Things may have gone very differently with a strong BJP local leadership in Karnataka. For example, Uttar Pradesh had municipal local elections simultaneously, with the BJP sweeping them. The strength of the Yogi administration is cited as the main reason. And this in the Yogi government’s second consecutive term in office.

The Basavraj Bommai administration in Karnataka, by way of contrast, displayed neither energy and charisma in the election campaign, nor administrative skill over his term. He came out to concede the election at about 12.30 pm.

So why was Bommai, who has not performed, retained for the entire length of time? So many incumbents were replaced at the time of handing out party tickets for this election, so why not Bommai? Can Bommai, who is still in position, lead the opposition for the years going forward which will see a general election in 2024?

The marginalisation and on-off usage of Lingayat patriarch BS Yediyurappa has also cost the BJP dearly, and not for the first time. LK Advani had also pushed out allegedly corrupt Yediyurappa in the first BJP term in Karnataka, resulting in the loss of the state. Introduction of Yediyurappa’s son to compensate for his absence in semi-retirement in this election, did not pull the same weight with the voters.

Congress ultimately does not need to reach out to some of the five to seven independents showing leads, in order to bolster their numbers. Nor does it need the help of the ‘kingmaker’ JDS, which ended up with around 20 seats.

However, all is not necessarily well. There are extreme rivalries between top Karnataka Congress leaders. One between former Chief Minister Siddaramiah and aspirant State Party President DK Shivakumar. Several other Congress leaders are there with ministerial ambitions they won’t like to be done out of. One more incoming MLA from the tribal community, KH Muniyappa, wants to be chief minister too.   Dalit Congress Party President Mallikarjun Kharge’s name has also been put forward by DK Shivakumar as a possible CM contender.

In the end, the senior Siddaramaiah, who said this was his last election, will probably be chosen to lead the Congress government. DK Shivakumar, a life- long Congressman, who is only 61, may have to wait his turn.   

(1240 words)

May 13^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee