The G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting And Prospects

The Foreign Ministers’ meeting at the G20 will commence on March 2^nd 2023 at New Delhi. We know that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken from the US, Foreign Minister Qin Gang of China, and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov of Russia are definitely coming.

All the Foreign Ministers of the G20 countries as well as those from special invited guests - Bangladesh, Egypt, Mauritius, Netherlands, Nigeria, Oman, Singapore, Spain and the UAE are also expected.

 Anthony Blinken will also participate in a scheduled QUAD Security Dialogue meeting as well as the 8th Raisina Dialogue meeting to be attended by many other countries including QUAD partner Australia represented by Foreign Minister Penny Wong.

In the latter, all four QUAD  foreign ministers are expected together  to address a panel for the first time. However, it is uncertain, even now, whether the Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi will attend the G20 and the QUAD meetings because the Japanese DIET is in session. Japanese deputy  Foreign Minister Shigeo Yamada is likely to be despatched in Hayashi’s place according to media reports.

What this suggests about Japanese enthusiasm for the India hosted G20 and QUAD meetings diplomatically, despite close relations between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as well as present Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, is at present a bit of a mystery.

It also raises questions, should Hayashi not attend, on the momentum of Indo-Japanese military cooperation in the light of Chinese aggression. Japan has recently met with China for security discussions for the first time in four years. China is concerned about Japanese pacifist policy changes and an ongoing military build-up. Japan has earlier announced in December 2022 its decision to collaborate with a pair of European nations, for the first time, namely the UK and Italy, for the development of a new fighter jet to enter service in the Japanese Airforce by the mid 2030s, that will, amongst other things, use Artificial Intelligence.

The Russian Foreign Minister, the veteran Sergei Lavrov, will attend the Foreign Ministers’ Meet at the G20 in New Delhi. The production of T 90 tanks, Sukhoi 30 MKI fighter jets, AK-203 assault rifles and other weapon systems and collaborations with Russia are in full compliance with India’s ‘Make in India’ policy thrust. India’s extensive cooperation with Russia is ongoing on multipole fronts.

The Finance Ministers’ Meeting ended without a joint statement, making do with a ‘Chairman’s outcome statement’ as India is not willing to condemn or censure Russia for the Russo-Ukraine War, and the same thing is likely to happen at the end of the Foreign Ministers’ meeting on March 3^rd.

Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang will mark his first visit to India after taking over from long standing former foreign minister Wang Yi. Though bilateral business between the two countries, particularly by way of Indian imports from China, have grown substantially, other areas of cooperation are frozen because of the deadlock over the tensions on the LaC since 2020.

 China would like to compartmentalise the disagreements on the LaC despite the skirmishes that have broken out and the major troop deployments and infrastructure build up on both sides. India however has made it clear to former Foreign Minister Wang Yi that it cannot be business as usual till the LaC tensions are resolved.

However, both China and India have been neutral to supportive of Russia despite considerable Western pressure. China has taken the initiative, possibly underlining its position as the No. 2 power in the world.

It has recently advanced a peace proposal to end the war in Ukraine that has evinced interest in both Moscow and Kiev, (with  Volodymir Zelenskyy proposing to go to China to meet President Xi Jinping on the proposals), but not so far, in Washington.

America sees the Chinese peace proposal as tilted in favour of Russia, presumably the ceding of considerable Ukrainian territory to Russia, even as the war has entered its second year as of February 24^th 2023.

That the QUAD meeting will follow soon after the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in New Delhi is probably another irritant from China’s point of view, but not enough for it to stay away. China’s full participation in the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting is a very positive gesture for an increasingly multilateral world. It is also a desire on its part not to be isolated and viewed as an absolute ally of Russia in a new Cold War 2.0.

The Ukraine-Russian War, it is clear, will cast a shadow over the entire G20 Summit deliberations in India. In session after session under India’s chairmanship the matter will crop up, even as India will try to make progress on consensus areas. These include Climate and Clean Energy, reform of the multilateral lending agencies, greater responsiveness to the needs of the large number of countries in the so-called Global South. India has repeatedly indicated its willingness to mediate and assist in the resolving of the Russo-Ukranian War if called upon to do so.

The G20 members together represent some 85% of global GDP, over 75% of the global trade, and 66% of the world population. In theory, they should collectively be a force for change in the world and the elimination of conflicts. But if they stay a house divided that is not possible.

The member countries include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, The UK, and the USA. It is remarkable however that many countries outside the G20 and some within it, the developing world, have refused to take sides in the Russo-Ukranian War.

It is unlikely therefore whether India will permit the Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kueba to address the gathering via a video link. The West of course, could well be pushing for it.

There could increasingly be Western media commentary suggesting that the Indian Chairmanship of the G20 is failing because of its stance on Russia. Pressure has come with the recent visits of American Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen who went on to visit Kiev as well in the wake of the Biden visit, and German Chancellor Olaf Schultz who tried to shift India’s diplomatic stance in favour of the West as well.

However, there is a growing admiration and support for India’s principled neutrality from many of the countries not captured ideologically by the Western camp. They are more focussed on the strong likelihood of India attaining the status of the third largest major economy in the world by 2027-2028. This is within this decade itself, as Columbia Professor Arvind Panagariya recently put it.

For Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this G20 Chairmanship will be a tight-rope walk through which good relations will have to be maintained with both the West and Russia. This via a consensus-based approach with multiple countries, both in the G20 and beyond. Recent humanitarian work done in Turkey will go some distance in blunting criticism for ‘Hindu Nationalist India’ from Turkey and the OIC.

In an increasingly multipolar world, troubled by high oil prices, food shortages, inflation, low growth, high debt, it is important to proceed on the basis of common ground rather than harp on differences. This may not satisfy on all parameters, but would deliver pragmatic, workable outcomes. India’s endeavour during this Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and indeed throughout this year, will be focussed on such practicalities.

(1,235 words)

February 28^th, 2023

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee