The Democrat Showing At Mid Term Gives President Biden Strength

President Joe Biden, who turns 80 this month, will host the wedding of his granddaughter, son Hunter Biden’s daughter, on the South Lawns of the White House. He has little to worry about as he has been gifted a better showing at the mid-term elections than any Democrat president in the last forty years.

Democrat President Obama lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives at mid-term, but went on to win a second term handily after eliminating Osama Bin Laden hiding in Pakistan.

The Americans love to elect a militarily inclined president.  Republican George W Bush who scraped a win using his Republican family contacts in the Supreme Court won his second term convincingly after attacking Afghanistan and Iraq post 9/11. He was in trouble the first time around for the infamous hanging chads controversy, against Democrat Al Gore (who was President Bill Clinton’s vice president),

Did President Biden, who still has low approval ratings, win the mid-term elections because of his bold if proxy prosecution of the Ukraine War? And because Russia has been faltering?

The Democrats still retain a slim majority in Congress (The House of Representatives), and a slimmer majority in the Senate, with 50 Democrat seats to 49 Republican ones. The Vice President Kamala Harris holds a casting vote if it turns 50-50. Elections to 30 Governors, effectively the CEO of those states across the country are ongoing. How many will stay with the Democrats?

So, while greater consultations with Republicans may take place as indicated by the US president, he does not have to concede any legislative space to his rivals except in consensus areas. By popular perception and narrow fact, the Democrats won the mid-term elections.

The Republicans on their part are not in a strong position to block legislation. The votes might be narrow going forward, but the Democrats have retained their advantage in both houses.

One of the things that have hurt the Republican Party is its revanchist support to the anti-abortion judgements that are resented by pro-choicer young women all over America. The Democrat Party is well regarded for its stance on the matter, and Biden has threatened that he will use his presidential veto should any country-wide legislative abortion ban be attempted by the Republicans. 

Is the war in Ukraine, which is putting strains on the American economy by way of gas prices and inflation one of the other pressure points? If so, how did the Democrats pass unhurt? Is it because the polity has become so polarised that Democrats will support a Democrat administration wrong or right?

Is it significant that President Putin waited till after the election results of November 8^th, before announcing the Russian withdrawal from Kherson? Could it be that Biden’s war strategy in Ukraine is working, expensive as it is in men and materials? Is Biden saying so at the G20 Summit in Bali? Could Russia end up pushed out of the Donbas region after claiming it as part of Russia after a hastily conducted referendum? 

An incumbent president of America does not usually suffer a lack of support when he is prosecuting a war abroad, even a proxy war, like the one in Ukraine.

In the case of President Biden, the enormously powerful military-industrial complex, is four-square behind him.  It is selling armaments worth billions to the Europeans and  Zelenskyy’s much destroyed Ukraine, and does not want the war to end anytime soon.

In President Biden’s recent face-to-face talks with President Xi Jinping at Bali on the side-lines of the G-20 Summit, both leaders came to the table with important domestic political wins under their belt. President Biden has made it clear before undertaking his overseas trip that he did not plan to offer any concessions to China. This includes, most tellingly, the ban of semiconductor machinery and know-how sales to China.

Biden is likely to tell Xi that America, EU, Britain, the NATO complex and the Western Alliance is winning the war in Ukraine against Chinese ally Russia. He might suggest that Xi Jinping might reconsider his options. He will continue to be ambiguous on what the US will do in the event China attacks Taiwan.

President Xi Jinping could, of course, maintain that the Russia’s retreats are tactical, and the war in Ukraine far from finished in Ukraine’s favour. But Russia is running out of conventional arms and ammunition, and is buying in from both North Korea and Iran. It has also lost a lot of soldiers and is pushing in replacements, as many as 80,000 recently.

The same message on Russia weakening, in veiled terms, could be delivered by the US to India. But India has moved from its studied neutrality to advocating a negotiated settlement and cessation of hostilities as early as possible for some time. Prime Minister Modi will reiterate his stance that this is not an era for war.

India’s own gains from cheaper Russian oil purchased in a Rupee-Ruble trade is acknowledged as non-negotiable by the US. It has made Russia India’s biggest oil importation partner, replacing all the countries in West Asia including Saudi Arabia.

The ongoing relationship with Russian arms manufacturers and joint venture military cooperation with Russia must also continue. However, greater overtures and ongoing cooperation with the US, France, Britain, Israel, Japan and other nations such as Brazil are proceeding alongside. It is clear, in the long run, with aatmanirbhar military manufacturing and diversification, India’s over 50% dependence on the Russian military connection will reduce a great deal. This is necessary also because of the spare parts difficulties and delayed deliveries that are beginning to occur as a consequence of the Russo-Ukranian war.

The elevation to the G 7 big table for India, that could become G8 or G9 soon, owing to its growing economic heft, the scale of its operations, may come soon. This will be inclusion, not as a guest, but as a full-fledged member. It is likely to occur rather sooner than India’s inclusion in the UNSC, given the vetoes of the five permanent members.

This, even as India assumes the presidency of the G20 from December 1^st, 2022 from Indonesia. It will be handing over the baton in 2024 to Brazil. All the three, for the moment, are developing countries, but India is clearly pulling ahead into a league of the rich countries club. This despite its very modest per capita income. It is in a unique position to leverage its population size to offer digital highways to the world, the biggest, thanks to the universal use of Aadhar. Prime Minister Modi has been clear, stump speech style, in pointing out the large list of achievements that puts India at the top of the global rankings. There are many avenues for worthwhile bilateral cooperation with the G20 countries and beyond, and India has not been shy about publicising its credentials this time.

India is also at the helm of the SCO for the next year, a forum that was earlier dominated by China almost exclusively.

In both cases, India is proceeding without signalling business as usual with China while it menaces India on its borders. China has long wanted the border situation compartmentalised, though India has said no.

Yet, as is the case with many other countries unable to shake of the Chinese tentacles in their supply chains, India’s trade with China, despite bans in several areas, has grown to $ 100 billion, largely in China’s favour. But India is now projecting itself as an alternative to China.

Many developments are expected, while India hosts over 50 separate  meetings and conclaves all over India over the next year. Most notably, it will be the year when India will interact substantially by way of trade, collaboration and commerce with the G7 countries with the exception of China. Germany, till lately very close to China, is saying Asia is no longer just China.

In addition, India will also, in bilateral pacts and FTAs, cooperate with the other 13 members of G 20 and many other guest entities.

However, India will not lead the so-called Global South in a guild of the like-minded to extract concessions from the rich countries. This sort of neo-non-alignment no longer works for a country that itself is likely to grow its economy to $ 5 trillion by 2025, and become the 3^rd largest major economy by 2028 or 2030. India will then have a GDP in the region of $ 8 to 10 trillion.

America and the Biden administration will facilitate India’s glide path even as it realises there is great bipartisan consensus and support within America for this course of action.

(1,437 words)

November 15^th, 2022

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee