Electoral Power Curbed So Rowdyism Reigns

The opposition justifies its boorish behaviour in parliament during this Monsoon Session 2022 by saying it is only following the BJP lead when it was in the opposition.

But unlike the BJP, that captured power in 2014 with no sign of letting go eight years on, the opposition is in an existential crisis, and likely to be further diminished in forthcoming state assembly elections and at the next general election in 2024.

It is demoralised, fragmented, and on the political run from corruption investigations being followed vigorously by the ruling dispensation.

It is true that the NDA in opposition, between mid 2004 and 2014 did not have the seats, or the leverage, to actually influence decision making via reasoned debate. So, it was roundly ignored as defeated ‘communalists’, name- called- ‘knickerwalas’, and ridiculed as obscurantists, even when it made a good point. 

British style parliamentary democracy and indeed even the American presidential system has this flaw, when the ruling party or parties have a majority on their own.

No one has found a solution to it, except in weak unstable coalitions as in Italy, Japan and Israel, and national governments, drawn from parties on both sides of the aisle, when, of course, there is no choice but to cooperate.

A combination of otherwise excellent debating parliamentarians, the late Shrimati Sushma Swaraj, leading the opposition NDA in the Lok Sabha, and the late Shri Arun Jaitley, leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha, drove the productivity of the 15^th Lok Sabha (2009-2014) to its worst in 50 years. The Lok Sabha worked, most wastefully for the tax payer, for 61% of the time allocated, and  in the Rajya Sabha, for 66% of the time, in all those years.

 The BJP disrupted parliament over the 2G scam in 2010, the CVC’s appointment in 2011, and the coal block allocation scam in 2012. The disruptions and baying calls for ousters, may have also catalysed a slew of  ministerial resignations in the ruling UPA II. For an opposition bloc it was most effective.

Arun Jaitley famously said disruptions of parliament sometimes brought  ‘greater benefits to the country’, and, ‘we do not want to give the government an escape route via debate’.

Of course, those dismal statistics are not repeated in Modi 1.0 and Modi 2.0 because of the BJP’s brute majority, on its own, in the Lok Sabha, through 2014 and again in 2019. This accompanied by very good management and creeping increase in bench strength in the Rajya Sabha as well.

This NDA government can pass legislation even without opposition cooperation. This, albeit with little or no discussion, after many sessions are adjourned due to disruptions, with the legislative business of the house pending well into the half way mark.It can also prevent bills being sent to the Siberia of joint parliamentary committees.

The UPA in its ten-year run, also had a habit of passing seemingly reformist bills that played well with the gallery, but were deliberately riddled with escape clauses. This has necessitated the introduction of amendments, to give some of the earlier legislation the teeth they need to be effective.

A good current example is the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA), which now allows for the Enforcement Directorate (ED) to arrest suspects caught with unaccounted for cash and assets, after an amendment to the earlier act. This Act has been upheld in its entirety very recently by the Supreme Court’s (SC) three-judge bench, in the face of a large number of plaints against it.

 But the new parliament building, which will soon have a larger number of MPs to reflect the increased population, may have mutated into a gladiatorial arena for good.

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win a large majority in 2024 and 2029 as well. The voting public has moved on from the earlier ‘Idea of India’, seen as minority appeasement, towards a bold ‘New India’, with Hindu Nationalist overtones, promoted vigorously by this government.

This will not only further pauperise the opposition’s finances because of reduced donations to its coffers, but also its ability to conduct itself successfully at election time.

The BJP has also mounted a campaign to wean away, with considerable success, the Dalits, OBCs and Tribals, thereby transforming their party from its erstwhile Brahmin-Baniya profile, to a much broader based juggernaut.

Now it is going after the Pasmanda (Left Behind) low-caste Muslims, that compose 85% of the more than 200 million Indian Muslim population. This has been occasioned, post Muslim women votes after the abolition of instant Triple Talaq. There have been signal successes in attracting Pasmanda votes in Rampur and Azamgarh, in the very heart of the Samajwadi Party (SP) strongholds. The reason being attributed is proper and even-handed disbursement of government welfare benefits under the ‘Sabka Vikas’ banner.

By implication, the Pasmanda seems to be turning its back on the Sayeds or the high-caste Muslims, not converts like the mass, who do not share benefits with the majority in their community, and allegedly scorn it for being poor, illiterate and downtrodden.

It also indicts the exploitation of poor Muslims for votes alone by parties like the Congress, TMC, AAP, TRS, DMK, YSR Congress,SP, AIMIM, indeed almost all the ones dependent on Muslim vote banks.

If this works for the BJP, it will storm into the last citadel of the opposition, and break the back of Islamic terrorism as well. Muslims will not pursue the chimera of Ghazwa-e-Hind being pushed by Pakistan’s ISI, and other external Islamic/Chinese groups. The communal tensions will ease. The bulk of the Muslims will prosper alongside other communities.

Further campaigns are underway by the BJP to break into more states in South India after Karnataka. Telangana is most likely next on the anvil, and on its own, after encouraging success in the local elections there. Kerala, a troubling opposition enclave, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, are still works in progress.

Being outmanoeuvred by such ruling government long-term strategy developments, and bereft of new ideas, or leadership that can revive its fortunes, the present opposition resorts to a more crass form of disruption.

This includes physical fights, tearing and throwing of papers, breaking of furniture and equipment, insulting ruling party members and institutions of government, both at parliament, and in the state assemblies.

The Congress leader of the Lok Sabha insulted the newly elected 15^th president madame Droupadi Murmu by ‘accidentally’ referring to her as ‘Rastrapatni’ and apologising for it only in the face of a ruling party uproar.

There are increasing numbers of suspensions of opposition members in both houses, sometimes for the entire session, and at other times for a week. This is becoming commonplace in every session of parliament in order to get any work done at all.

The Gandhi statue in the parliament grounds is semi-permanently occupied by protesting parliamentarians from the noisier opposition parties such as the Congress, the TMC and the DMK, during the session, with some staying on,  stretched out on mattresses for all day and night lately. 

The protests under the statue started with issues like price rise, but have degenerated to protests at being expelled. Soon there may be protests about protests!

The angry opposition cannot gain anything by reasoned debate as the late Arun Jaitley pointed out, and so this situation is only controllable with even stricter management.

If members are expelled at the first sign of unparliamentary behaviour, for the entire session, with fines, they may think again.

The tantalising thing in their minds is the perception that this government can be pushed around. Didn’t it roll back the Farm Laws and hasn’t it failed to implement CAA and NRC? If that was accomplished on the streets and mohallahs instead of parliament, then that should be the preferred strategy.

The government, on its part, will have to crack down on street protests as effectively as it quelled the violation of Section 144 during the questioning of the Gandhis, mother and son, by the ED. The public is strongly in support on this, except for those allied with the opposition.

The government might be one step ahead. It seems to have shifted gear in favour of a more muscular, if non-violent assertion, of law and order. That is where the use of the tear gas and water cannons have come in.

The opposition will now see more arrests. It will not be able to exercise a street veto as easily as in the past.

(1,408 words)

July 28^th, 2022

For; Firstpost/News18

Gautam Mukherjee