Modi-Shah-Doval
Turn The Tables On The Forces Of History
Has Paradise been regained on the snowy slopes of J&K?
And in its markets and valleys? Is everything bright once more this Monday 5th
day of August in the year 2019? Will tourists and pilgrims flock into the union
territories henceforth without the shadow of a gun? Will the economy of the
region grow unfettered at last?
Has Modi 2.0 delivered on one of the longest standing
promises of the BJP within its traditionally Teflon first 100 days?
Solving the problems associated with the vexed quango
status of J&K is a momentous event on par with the coming down of the
Berlin Wall within the annals of contemporary Indian history.
The Indian economy may be bad at present, but the solving
of the building of the Ram Mandir at Ayodhya after similar decades, now seems
within reach too.
There is enormous credibility restored to the government
at one fell swoop, after acute criticism on the handling of the economy in
recent times. But with this, there will be no doubting Modi’s leadership for
the rest of this second term. The economy, one feels sure, will also be
properly and effectively addressed by this government.
Heaven on Earth, is how Mughal Emperor Jehangir described
the territory in itself for its sheer beauty, when he visited it in the 17th
century. But Kashmir has been long lost in the mire for 72 unfortunate years.
This situation probably began via the petulance of the
last Maharaja, Hari Singh, of the erstwhile undivided kingdom. The haughty and
status quoist attitude of Singh and his Hindu Dogra predecessors, was indulged
by the British Raj.
They probably wanted access to a quiet paradise that many
holidayed at, recuperated in, or retired into. The touch-me-not ism of the
kingdom, indirectly ruled by the British through a Resident, was encouraged. It
was an India, after all, that stretched from the borders of Afghanistan to distant
Burma, and included Sri Lanka and the Gulf States within its remit. And there
was just one paramount power. And it flew the Union Jack.
In 1947 however, to teach a reluctant Hari Singh a lesson
for his stubborn hubris, Lord Mountbatten, decided to intervene. Singh was
jolted for choosing independence in a vastly changed world by the last Viceroy,
and by then, the first Governor General of India.
Mountbatten allegedly encouraged his Pakistani
counterpart, MA Jinnah, to quickly overrun part of Hari Singh’s territory
before he had time to react with his largely decorative princely army.
What Jinnah’s “irregulars” took, is what is today’s PoK,
and the high reaches of Gilgit-Baltistan. This forced Singh into the hands of a
waiting Nehru, like a comfortable cricket catch.
Nehru huffed his way to the United Nations, accusing
Pakistan of aggression, asking for help for the restoration of PoK, but he didn’t
really have his heart in it. He didn’t, it appears, particularly want PoK back
as an act of tacit goodwill.
Nehru was
quite naive for all his intelligence, and hoped that Pakistan would content
itself with what it had wrested out of Kashmir. This, alas, was not to be.
This more so after his daughter Indira Gandhi as Prime
Minister helped to lop off East Pakistan into Bangladesh in 1971. In an
attitude of revenge ever since, Pakistan has been fomenting trouble via its
policy of “a thousand cuts”, not only in J&K, but wherever it could within
India.
To a certain extent The Pakistani GHQ’s raison d etre is based on its hostility
to India, which it calls an existential threat. Its terrorist-based war machine
backed by its intelligence agency ISI and regular troops, is today in trouble.
Kashmir is now a Union Territory integrated into India. Fighting it becomes warring
with India directly, and not aid to a so-called home grown separatist movement.
It cannot be portrayed as such.
Recent military resolve shown by India in response to
Pakistani aggression is also something that has reduced Pakistan’s room to
manouevre.
But even in the original sin of the initial surrender, Hari
Singh’s ego held out for a bizarre exceptionalism, eschewed by over 500 of the
other Princes. Muslim majority Hyderabad and Junagadh did try to hold out with
specious arguments, before caving in and signing their Treaties of Accession
tamely, and on the dotted line.
Since then, the growing mess created by Article 370,
Article 35A, in J&K, as it came to be known, has haunted both India and
J&K. It has been a long seven decades of the politics of blackmail and
entitlement practiced by Sheikh Abdullah, his family of successors, and other
Valley politicians, mostly his relatives, aided by the mainstream Congress
Party.
It has kept J&K a perpetually disturbed state and
consumed the lives of many people and enormous resources that India could ill
afford.
The legal beagles will pore over the audacious action of
the Modi government and cheesepare at the provisions of the Presidential
proclamation for some time to come. They will examine the gazetting of its
provisions, the Home Minister’s speech in the Rajya Sabha, the bills and acts
pertaining to it, the debates and arguments presented in parliament and outside
it. But is there any worthwhile political will to back a challenge? From the
looks of the opposition camps, it looks very tepid.
Besides the stunning fait
accompli is such that it stands little or no chance of being effectively
challenged, let alone over-turned by legal means.
The integration of J&K into separate Union Territories
- at Ladakh without legislature, and in Jammu and Kashmir with a legislature,
has ended the constant political friction
probably once and for all.
It is however natural for those who benefited from
exploiting the earlier arrangement, to protest the sudden set of steps taken over
the last few days, culminating in the decisions taken on the 5th of
August. Can they upset the apple cart though? This is no more likely than the
effects of Maharaja Hari Singh’s displeasure.
Will the spirit of Syama Prasad Mookerjee, martyred in
the cause of Kashmir’s integration, animate future development in an integrated
J&K plus Ladakh?
Mookerjee is a towering figure and inspiration for the
present dispensation. He was also the
founder of the Jan Sangh, the predecessor of the BJP, and the saviour of West
Bengal from being swallowed up by Pakistan. This apart from being a leading
light of the Hindu Mahasabha and a sometime minister in the Nehru cabinet.
Under the architects of the integration of the newly
named union territories, mainly Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister
Amit Shah and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, Mookerjee’s vision of a Kashmir
as a fully integrated part of India, will certainly go forward.
Can we expect bloodshed and revolt in the Kashmir Valley
and parts of Jammu, and its echoes in the rest of India including New Delhi? It
is most unlikely.
Instead, it will expose the lack of traction of those who
have long claimed that any attempt to revoke Article 370 would result in mayhem.
Congress, long a supporter of the erstwhile arrangement
in J&K, is caught in a cleft stick. Though it may be emotionally and
materially opposed to the new development, it is, on balance, wary of being
seen as its most vehement opponent. Many within it, including legal luminary
Abhishek Manu Singhvi, called the government’s move “politically astute” irrespective
of its legal underpinnings.
What effect will it have on Pakistan and the wider world
beyond it? Pakistan will be worried about Indian claims on PoK and Gilgit
Baltistan intensifying now.
Others, including ally China, America, Europe, Russia, the
United Nations, the Gulf and North African Arabs, Saudi Arabia, or the OIC in
general, are unlikely to back any Pakistani protest.
Turkey and the Palestinian authority might, but they are
in no position to make a difference. It is, quite clearly an internal matter
for India despite Pakistani efforts on behalf of Pakistani separatists.
In recent days, Pakistan had attempted to revive its
proximity to America, using the Afghanistan Taliban as a bargaining chip. This
may suit America that is eager to leave Afghanistan to its own devices after
nearly two decades of futile effort to subdue its warring factions. But, the
new Pakistani tilt towards America probably does not go down well with China,
invested to the tune of many billions in the CPEC.
China may well be inclined to back any renewed Indian
claim on PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan over the medium term, in exchange for a
softening and limited engagement on the part of India with the One Belt One Road
and CPEC initiatives.
A new world of improbable opportunity may have just
opened up.
(1,441
words)
5th
August 2019
For:
Sirfnews
Gautam
Mukherjee
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