India & Pakistan: Consolidation Versus Disintegration

India & Pakistan: Consolidation Versus Disintegration

Now that nearly two weeks have passed since India carried out surgical strikes over the LoC undetected, and to a convincing depth of 6.5 km, and no nuclear retaliation has been forthcoming- we can safely assume that the Pakistani bluff has been called.

It was ridiculous to oft-threaten nuclear war, not via rabble-rousing fringe elements, but from the level of the defence minister of Pakistan.

Why the Government of India (GoI), has long cowered under this very same comic book bluff, now seems inexplicable.

So much so, that it has stoically endured successive ‘acts of war’ from an allegedly ‘unstable’ neighbour, without any exemplary retaliation, and for decades on end!

 This is now firmly in the past. The LoC, maintained as sacrosanct for so long by India, is now no longer so. Indeed, the LoC has clearly missed its moment in history. It will probably never be converted into an international border now.

Recent events have indeed highlighted that PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan is legally Indian territory. But, there is much more to it. The dissipation of the nuclear threat for the bogey it was, will help India get on with its double-digit growth ambitions. The non-interference of China, at least its unwillingness to escalate matters, is a big dampener for Pakistani belligerence as well.

Meanwhile, the Indian military has signalled Modi’s change in policy. Not only will it strike again as necessary, but it will choose its time and place, moving from different points along the LoC, and the international border.

It will not repeat its tactics. It will retain the element of surprise. But retaliation against future provocations of its choosing is certain.

Predictability, and the political harness that was ‘strategic restraint’, has been discarded.

The ‘self-defence’ process demonstrated, and the principle of it, highlighted by India’s surgical strikes, has received the widespread backing of most of the civilised world.

In future therefore, Pakistan will pay for cross-border terrorism by having it chase the battle right into the heart of its own vulnerable fault-lines. In fact, it may already be too late.

India declared its change in policy on its independence day, 2016. The prime minister made it a part of his speech from the ramparts of Red Fort. That it was well before the Uri attack, shows that what has followed since, is no knee-jerk reaction.

Just days before 15^th August 2016, India began amplifying and drawing global notice to the causes of protest movements in PoK/Gilgit-Baltistan, as well as Balochistan.

Since then, the atrocities of the Pakistani state have been highlighted by  India at the UNGA, supported by vociferous street protests in New York, Washington, London, and other cities of the West.

The protesting diaspora were not only from PoK/Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan, but also, ominously for Pakistan, from Sindh and NWFP.

All this discontent is now out in the open, and gaining increasing traction. It has certainly become regular fare in the Indian media.

It is also being raised by India at government policy level, both diplomatically, and at other multi-lateral forums, pointing out the gross human rights abuses and genocide being perpetrated.

There is also, it is now widely accepted, almost invariably, a Pakistani footprint in any terrorist act around the globe, quite apart from India. And the earlier distinctions between good and bad terrorists has suffered  so much attrition, that it is hardly maintained.

The international community is being treated to new streams of video footage from, and hearing the angry voices of, the native and local people in PoK/Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan.  These are highlighting rapes, bombings, abductions, shootings. Any development in these areas are devoid of gains for the locals. Shias are being systematically eliminated.

And now, it’s all about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), looked at with both trepidation and suspicion by much of the world.

The Chinese had already sunk $12 billion of an estimated $50 billion to be invested, when the protests began to get out of hand. They are now seriously worried.  

Pakistan too is digging itself into a crisis. It may not be focussing on it now, but it will have to pay the eventual bill for the CPEC. This, by way of massive additional indebtedness, to Chinese banks and others. Will it lead to sovereign default, given the fragility of its economy, forcing it to grant even more privileges to China?

Sri Lanka also went in for similar massive, over-priced, Chinese-aided projects under its former leadership. This has now rendered its economy virtually bankrupt.

But apart from its developmental costs, the CPEC has massive security exposures,that will persist throughout its development and operational phases. It will remain a prime target for insurgency, because much of it runs through disputed territory. 

It is already struggling to keep its Chinese road/infrastructure-builders safe. This, despite posting two Pakistani security men to every Chinese working on the project.

President Xi Jinping has expressed concern about this on more than one occasion, and not a little because of the geopolitical pressures he is feeling.

 The Balochistan leadership abroad meanwhile, has already sought sanctuary in India, where it intends to form a government in exile.

On the economic and political fronts also, India is reviewing a rack of options, deliberately keeping things ambiguous. It might be reinterpreting the Indus Water Treaty, removing Pakistan’s unilateral MFN status, boycotting SAARC  meetings in Pakistan,  along with most of the other members, working on declaring Pakistan as a terrorist state etc.  Will it also raise Pakistan at BRICS, particularly with China?

It is surprising, in hind-sight, that Pakistan failed to read the tea-leaves.

Ever since the advent of the Modi government, after early overtures of friendship were spurned, the retaliation to Pakistan’s regular violations of the ceasefire on the LoC, have been markedly robust.  

That these ceasefire violations are regular features to provide covering fire for pushing in infiltrators, makes them doubly offensive.

But, of late, the number of Pakistan’s ‘low-cost assets’ killed, has become substantial. The tally announced was 117 cross-border terrorists over the last 8 months. A dozen more have died on the wires since the surgical strikes.

So going forward, Pakistan must take heed of its sharply increasing costs, as well as its grave potentials. It could quite credibly, break-up altogether!

The trouble is, the Pakistan Army and the ISI will lose its raison d’ etre, and its paramountcy, if it changes course. So, it is the Greek tragedy that  must probably play out instead, recent civil society and political murmuring notwithstanding.

India, on its part will contribute to the process via its no-nonsense ‘offensive defence’ policy from now on. It will seal its entire international border with Pakistan, and put in high-tech sensors, satellite surveillance, drones, other detection equipment, lasers, state-of-the-art fire power, on the LoC.  So much for defence.

But it will also support Pakistan’s enemies with money, training, political support, weapons, and equipment. And India will strike at Pakistan’s terrorists, spies, deep assets, fifth-columnists, and soldiers alike, preferably before they can even make their move.

For: Nationalist Online

(1,163 words)

October 11^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee