Untimely Deaths Galore In A Callous Incompetent Nation Without Accountability

A recent judgement in Italy that took eight years and 280 hearings to reach a conclusion put a clutch of the responsible people in jail with sentences ranging from 12 years to five. It was for a bridge collapse that saw 480 people plunging to their deaths in their cars. But yes, all the culpable officials including the head of the bridge authority were punished in the end. This has never happened in India.

In India bridges collapse time and again in Goa and Bihar and sometimes even in Gujarat. Nothing happens to those responsible except for a scapegoat or two who are also let off when no one is looking. Tunnels bury people alive even after rescue efforts save a number. Cable cars hoist passengers hundreds of feet up in the air and if the cars don’t fall down then commandos have to rescue the passengers. Lifts in building crash through many floors. Trains collide due to signalling faults and hundreds die. Buses with drunken drivers fall into gorges. Dangerous roads. Dangerous drivers. No lights. Wrong side movements. Animals. Tractors. Little children.

Deaths, injuries, accidents caused by misadventure are routine in India. From bungee jumps and paragliding deaths to inadvertent poisonings, deliberate murders, crimes of passion. We die in many ways every day amongst our almost 1.5 billion people. Many occur in cars and on motorcycles killing people in or on them but also other innocents, children, bystanders, sleeping people. Liquor is often a companion to these tragedies, and if they involve young people, there is often a sense of invincibility that is suddenly cut off.

In addition, it is almost always accompanied by civic apathy, callousness, sub- standard workmanship, open drains without barriers, huge pits dug and left unattended with no signage, unmarked diversions which are nevertheless precarious, balconies and entire buildings that collapse with people in them and on people passing by. Fires, floods, in hotels, guest houses, coaching centres, with just one inaccessible entrance cum exit, fixed windows, all overbuilt illegally and with impunity. Whole high-rise buildings that have to brought down for faulty construction and illegal floors.

Corruption is rife and goes unpunished because of official collusion. The PWD, the NHAI amongst many other contractors and agencies build roads that develop craters, bridges and flyovers that collapse, more often than not killing people. It is an out-of-control phenomenon without end, perhaps linked to our belief in karma rather than any attempt to fix responsibility and improve accountability.

And then there is the curse of reservation that produces sub-standard administrators, engineers, doctors. A moribund and overburdened judiciary that takes decades to deliver a verdict. One that is not accountable owing to its  closed-loop collegium system.

Wilful negligence results from all this, as culpability does not usually lead to retribution or justice. One tragedy overlaps another and all is forgotten without need of forgiveness. Politicians usually throw some compensation money at the victim families and express routine regret before moving on. Life itself is cheap in India and the best thing anyone can do is look out for oneself.

Where do you begin if you want to improve matters? At least in Western countries where the population is small accountability stands a chance. Here we are masters at pass the buck. Fixing responsibility is well-nigh impossible when every action or the lack of it is diffused over an entire department. Besides, you cannot sack a government official. You can suspend or transfer him or her. You cannot stop the salary or perquisites, the housing or facilities during suspension. Only if a government official is convicted can he or she be dismissed and punitive measures like a stoppage of pension can be made. The sacked official can appeal in a court of law and if successful must be reinstated with full pay, perquisites, any loss of service restored. These laws were set up by the British to suit themselves. Independent India has carefully preserved them undiluted. It is tantamount to immunity of a kind peculiar to Indian bureaucracy and the politicians in parliament or the state assemblies cannot be brought to book except by their peers. Likewise, the judiciary. The private sector can be prosecuted and often is as a point of deflection, unless the bribery has been prophylactic.

In short if something is done properly in India, that is well and good, because if it is not there is little or no recourse. There are fast track courts just as overburdened as the regular ones. There are draconian laws that cannot be enforced until the judiciary is satisfied on the particulars of the case in question. We live in a Kafkaesque impasse.

The reforms that we need fly in the face of democratic freedoms. Simplicity cannot operate in a complex polity like ours. Millions die and will continue to do so to underline this fact. Some nominal activity always flows on from a tragedy. An FIR is filed. A court case is started. And that is that, because who can keep track of it after? This is a country where breaking the law and getting away with it is time-tested. The system itself protects the law-breaker from coming to any harm.

The problem is for the law abiding and civic sense-minded. They have to live on the scraps of our system though nobody will quite admit it. Digitalisation and various forms of forensics and transparency and the new-fangled AI are improving matters very slightly. But the grand overhaul that is called for is far away yet. The malaise is both systemic and attitudinal. All sides of the square look at each other with equal guilt and apathy. Will coming prosperity raise standards and make us demand better from ourselves?

 

(952 words)

27^th July 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Indian Credit Information Moving Into Foreign Hands In The Age Of AI

Nobel laureate Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s meandering novel Love In The Time Of The Cholera  writes of a continual but varied love between different protagonists from youth to old age with a leading pair to anchor the story. This love itself, a main character, is not just an emotion but all-consuming force that keeps mutating. The novel contrasts decades of passionate longing, letters pored over, short affairs that inevitably occur, denial, lies, confessions, underpinned by the virtues of companionable, respectable, marriage. The cholera is the possibility of lurking disease and sudden death in the backdrop.

Attempts to make money are similar in their energy.The everlasting quest between potential seller and buyer fuelled by an unquenchable, amoral, immortal ambition. Nowadays it is not enough to be enticing via advertisements and brand ambassadors. The commercial engine wants an inside track like the Watergate break-ins. This is via the collection of profile and financial data, history, habits, all to be yoked together with new-fangled artificial intelligence and super-fast data-crunching.

Meta, which grew out of a Harvard college room and began as Facebook, those decades ago in order to connect students on campus, has recently paid 900 million USD for a 20% stake in the Indian firm CRED. This, while hiring its founder Kunal Shah as head of WhatsApp worldwide. The platform is one of Meta’s prior acquisitions. WhatsApp now has an Indian consumer base of 500 million people. CRED has more than 17 million users via incentivisation to join. It processes more than 40% of credit card payments in the country. Obviously their data base contains a lot of the better-heeled.

You can already see the Love in the Time of the Cholera style meandering. It is tentacular, going relentlessly into mostly American hands. More so, when you contemplate the money-flows. Who can resist fat USD offers? Certainly not the bright Indians that create marvellous digital architecture such as Aadhar and UPI, and brilliant payment apps, acknowledged as the best in the world.

Walmart via its purchase of Flipkart now controls 72% of PhonePe. Google owns GooglePay of course, and Meta owns WhatsApp Pay with its 500 million potential Indian users. That’s more people than several Western country populations put together. And remember India is growing at roughly 7% in GDP year-on-year. It has a middle class with purchasing power approaching 750 million people.

India offers a humungous consumer market size with its 1.5 billion strong population, the biggest in the world now. China may be almost as populous but it controls its own digital architecture and financial apps 100%, with no foreigner interests whatsoever. However, their consumers are concentrated in their urban hubs and not so spread out as in India with its multiple tiers of cities and towns all full of aspiration.

The fig leaf that allows access to it all is called consent. But every time an individual or organisation uses a private financial app, the process involves agreeing to a lot of profile and credit information including past transactions, spending habits, and so on, passing over seamlessly to forces unknown. This information can be used in a variety of ways-to sell various goods, services, financial products, insurance, wealth management, offer loans, buy property. And, if things go awry, or there is motivation towards it, lead to cyber-attacks via compromised passwords and other data in online platforms connected to laptops, smart phones.

India also has official credit profiling organisations. These collect and analyse credit and loan repayment data to calculate credit scores for individuals and credit ranking for businesses. But even here the meandering tentacles of the foreign entities is apparent. CRISIL is an S&P company, ICRA is an affiliate of Moody’s, another, IND-RA is affiliated to Fitch. So sovereignty over financial and other dats does not exist.

It is reasonable to conclude that despite some government oversight from the RBI and SEBI, the entire space is infiltrated by mostly American organisations. It is already too late to worry about credit information slipping into foreign hands though purchases such as the one just made by Meta may give us a jolt. Perhaps the consequent goods and services available to Indians benefit from the international ownership. Many countries have little problem with selling most things not directly connected to national security to others. What frenemies like China and outright enemies like Pakistan could do with our data is worrisome, but the horse nevertheless seems to have bolted. To worry about it in nationalist terms despite the security implications, is futile without the indigenous investment and infrastructure to go with it. The motive forces are a combination of the passion of uncontrolled love combined with the logic and sedateness of marriage. Gabriel Garcia Marquez knew what he was writing about and the vagaries of human nature. Even though it is difficult to see the substance in the people who bemoan the transfer of Indian financial data to foreign hands without the ability to offer alternatives. Are they failing to acknowledge a ground reality? And in the end, nobody can sell you anything unless you are willing to buy. Buying and selling is a lot like love after all.

(855 words)

June 25^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Can The Gulf States Defend Themselves Without the US?

On the very first day of the current conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran on 28^th February 2026, the Iranians claimed they knocked out the over $ 1 billion worth of AN/FPS-132 missile defence radar. It warns of incoming aerial threats and guides America’s state-of-the-art THAAD missiles.

In India, we chose the Russian S-400 over the THAAD, braving possible US sanctions, and it has proved to be very effective and at cheaper cost. THAAD vs S-400 and S-500 has been demonstrated in the Russian Ukraine War as well.

That reports say Iran destroyed the billion dollar radar with a $ 20,000 Shahed drone. This has been the huge mismatch in this war.

Shaheds in their thousands, versus America’s Tomahawks and other missiles that cost millions of dollars. Of course, Iran used ballistic and hypersonic missiles as well, but partially to wear out the Israeli Dome and other air defences. In many ways America did not prepare well for this war before launching into it.

This radar attack was at America’s major naval base at Manama, Bahrain. The Americans denied the loss, and said a much less important installation was hit, even as satellite pictures showed substantial damage at the naval base in addition. There is a lot of misinformation from both sides and sometimes no information at all.

Compare this patchy performance with the effectiveness of multiple and varied indigenous and imported air defences controlled by the Indian Air Force during Operation Sindoor.  Amazingly, they ensured not a single Pakistani missile, mostly of Chinese origin, or the Turkish supplied drones, did any damage to any military bases or civilian targets, including the Golden Temple at Amritsar. Indian missiles including the famed BRAHMOS devastated Pakistani targets and destroyed their Chinese-made air defences.

Israel, meanwhile, also on day one, wiped out the supreme leader and a large number of the top leadership in Tehran using very powerful bombs. It expected this decapitation of Iran’s top-drawer leadership would collapse the ruling regime. It is what happened in Venezuela but the Islamic regime in Iran is very different.

This notion was clearly premature in Iran’s layered system. And now, very importantly, the intelligence gathered by the US and Israel seems to have fallen short of the locations of hundreds of missiles and drones stored by Iran in reinforced tunnels underground, all over the country. This in addition to over 400 Kg of enriched weapons grade uranium that remains secreted.

The US and Israel should have anticipated this, because the Hamas in Gaza, inspired, financed, and armed by Iran, also held out for a very long time using their network of tunnels and underground storage facilities.

Meanwhile, after 17 days of this war, the pounding of Iran from the air continues, after its air defences and out-of-date air force was knocked out early in the day. But, a daily quota of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel, the American forces on sea and land, and the countries of the Gulf keeps raining down using a decentralised system.

The US, Gulf states and Israeli air defences are too expensive for the showers of inexpensive Iranian Shahed drones and expendable ballistic missiles. America is just beginning to retaliate likewise with its Lukas drones and Laser weapons, but this has come late and is another glaring intelligence failure. Billions of dollars have been spent but Iran’s regime is still able to fight back. There are hints of much heavier duty missiles still in stock as well.

The real issue is not whether American bases are required in the Gulf because that is a foregone conclusion, but their unpreparedness in the face of superior Iranian strategy and tactics.

The Gulf countries, shaken by the violence, are now keen on the Americans finishing the job of ousting the Iranian regime. They have overcome their earlier ambivalence and are much more alert to incoming attacks.  

The Islamic regime has been in power for 47 years and most recently survived a savage attack on its nuclear facilities by the US and Israel less than a full year ago. They have apparently been preparing for another attack ever since.

The Gulf States have afforded US military bases in most of their countries for decades now, ever since West Asia became independent from erstwhile British rule before WWII. Some still have British and French bases as well. Among other reasons, this is because with low native populations, even their armed forces are manned, trained and officered to a large extent by expatriates. This was long felt to be clearly inadequate.

However, despite the American military presence in multiple countries all over the Gulf, tasked by the host countries to be defensive in nature rather than as pads for offensive military action, Iran has been able to play havoc with them.

It has penetrated US air defences, attacked and significantly damaged assets, and caused combatant casualties, using waves of drones and missiles. Iran has also recently knocked out six of the US refuelling planes necessary for the fighter aircraft and bombers flying long missions. The Russians and Chinese are said to be providing locational intelligence, weapons and spare parts to Iran.

 This destruction is happening not only at the American bases including at a massive airbase in Qatar, another in Saudi Arabia, yet another in Kuwait, and a naval base in Bahrain that houses its 5^th fleet.

In addition, Iran has swiftly attacked oil assets including refineries and storage tanks, terminals for loading the oil and gas into tankers, buildings, other facilities, much more widely in all the host countries. This, to punish them for hosting American bases and spiral oil prices out of control as production facilities shut down to limit damage. Even as the true extent of the damage done to Iran is masked, the regime is setting stiff terms for the end of the war and demanding the US bases be removed. They know that next time it won’t be so easy.

The Iranian strategy has been to widen the war to include the Gulf states and others farther afield including bases, houses, and embassies in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Iraq, Lebanon, sometimes using proxies.

In addition, Iran has blocked the Straits of Hormuz except to select vessels from China, India, Pakistan on a case-by-case basis after negotiations The Straits of Hormuz is the narrow artery through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas reaches elsewhere. Oil prices have risen to over $ 100 a barrel and threaten to rise higher. The Iranians are set to have mined the straits and are capable of drone and explosive laden boat attacks despite the destruction of most of its navy. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to Yanbu and a terminal on the Red Sea but it  has limited carrying capacity and cannot meet all the demand.

For Iran, the main enemy continues to be Israel and the US after the start of the third week of this current war, but all their allies are declared targets of the regime in Iran and its IRGC fighters in particular, not only in the theatre of war in West Asia, but elsewhere in the world. Even American companies in West Asia have been declared as targets.  At the same time, America’s European allies have been most reluctant to get involved in this war. The economic damage is rivalling the military toll with no end in sight. It is clearly up to America to finish what they have started with a Prince Pahlavi waiting to provide a transitional government. Another school of thought is calling for a ceasefire and negotiations. The realistic assessment is that a ceasefire does not mean this war wont flare up again after a pause.  

Iran did fight Iraq to a standstill for eight years not very long ago. In earlier centuries there have been 30 year and 100 year wars too. It did not mean that both sides fought continuously, but they did fight to an eventual resolution.

(1,327 words)

March 17^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Upcoming Transshipment Port In The Great Nicobar Along with an Airbase Is A Major Gain For International Commercial Shipping And The Andaman Theatre Military Command

The recently opened Vizhinjam International Transshipment Deepwater Multipurpose Seaport on the tip of Kerala facing the Indian Ocean, is already a resounding success.

It has been used by the largest container ships in the world, and its state-of-the-art automated AI assisted facilities are deeply appreciated by international shipping plying in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Vizhinjam is situated just 10 nautical miles from major international East-West shipping routes. Developed as a public-private partnership with port major, the Adani Group, Phase 1 already handles 1 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units). It is going to be expanded in due course to 6.2 million TEUs in later phases. The deepwater transshipment port has a natural draft of 20-24 metres and minimal littoral drift.

Now India has announced it is going to replicate this lucrative, strategic and commercial breakthrough, the first of its kind on the subcontinent, with another deepwater transshipment port in the Great Nicobar Islands located strategically just 40 nautical miles from the extremely busy Malacca Straits.

China, active in the IOR for several years now, has a number of port bases in various countries, but no deepwater transshipment ports. The nearest transshipment port in the IOR beyond Vizhinjam, is in Colombo, Singapore, and Port Klang. The others are farther away in the Asia-Pacific.

The International Container Transshipment Port (ICTP) at Galathea Bay in the Great Nicobar Island will be constructed alongside a fully equipped airbase with stretch runways for large and heavy civilian/military aircraft, power infrastructure, and other  defence installations plus an integrated purpose built township.

The overall investment eventually will be in the region of Rs.100,000 crores, starting with the first phase of the port at a cost of some Rs. 20,000 crores.

Like Vizhinjam, the Galathea Bay transshipment Port (ICTP) also has a natural draught depth of over 20 metres. The first phase is expected to be commissioned by 2028, with a handling capacity of 4 million TEUs, rising to 16 million TEUs in phase 4. The First phase of the Galathea Bay Port includes two breakwaters, a 400 meter wide channel for navigation, an 800 metre wide turning circle, seven berths at over 2.3 km length, a container yard with 125 ha, automated equipment for handling the containers including RMQCs (Rail mounted Quay Crane) and RTGs (Rubber Tyred Gantry) and two berths to handle liquid cargo. Like Vizhingam, It will also be a public private partnership and invite foreign investment as well.

Adani, with considerable port expertise at Mundhra and other ports in India, is already cooperating with Marseille Port in France and others in Israel and Greece as well.

 The ITCP transshipment port spread over 166 sq.km. is located southwest of Campbell Bay and the INZ Baez Naval Port. It is currently connected by the Campbell Bay-Galathea Bay road and Galathea Bridge No.46 built by the BRO(Border Roads Organisation). All these are likely to be enhanced to suit the development.  

Positioned ideally to tap into the trade between Asia, Africa, the US and Europe that passes through the IOR, the ICTP at Galathea Bay will compete with Singapore, Colombo and Port Klang in the near area that presently handles the transhipped cargo in the region that has not been tapped by Vizhinjam in Kerala.

The potential commercially is enormous if one realises that the prosperity of Shanghai, Shenzen and Singapore is partially and substantially based on its port efficiencies, its logistical sophistication, and the massive transshipment cargoes they handle. The ITCP at Galathea Bay is projected to generate at least Rs. 30,000 crores per annum in the first phase and provide over 50,000 jobs.

Great Nicobar Island  is the southernmost and largest of the Nicobar islands group. It is about 520 Km from Port Blair. It is located  on the main east-west international shipping route almost equidistant from Colombo, Malaysia’s Port Klang, and Singapore.

India’s container traffic stood at 17 million TEUs in 2020 compared to China’s 246 million TEUs. This provides some idea of the scope for growth India is now tapping into, with its two strategically located transshipment ports. Till now, India’s own transshipment cargo was being handled by other ports.

The entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands are also being gradually developed for tourism and fisheries, while defence is a key objective in several of the islands, as in Lakshadweep which is very close to the Maldives and not very far from Mauritius.  

Simultaneously, India is developing its existing and new greenfield ports along both sea boards. It is also expanding its ship-building, submarine and aircraft carrier building capacity, for military and civilian applications for both domestic use and exports. These include oil tankers and on-order ships for other countries. India is also turning into a repair and refurbishing hub for itself and allied naval fleets, including those of the US operating in the IOR and the Asia-Pacific.

India is also looking into deep water mineral harvesting and blue water economies in deep sea fishing to a much more organised degree, given that China is already very active in these areas too. Other countries are even fishing in our territorial waters.

Most importantly, developments in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are positioning India as a strategic and commercial partner in the Arabian Sea, the IOR and the Bay of Bengal without losing any more time over it.

(882 words)

February 18^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Budget Announcements- Good For Its Capex Increase, Chip Manufacturing, High-Speed Rail Corridors, Sentiment Dampener For Stock Markets

The Budget presentation on Sunday February 1^st, 2026 held few surprises. It made three marquee announcements- raising the Capex budget by one lakh crores to 12.2 lakh crores. This will certainly help to keep the GDP growth on track at around 7% per annum via continued infrastructure development.

However, there are no direct incentives for greater private sector capex unless they choose to take up one or the other of the several incentivised sectors for boosting manufacturing.

The macro-economic markers have been preserved intact by this prudent budget, marked by incremental continuity rather than big bang initiatives.

The fiscal deficit target has been set at 4.3% of GDP for 2026-27. The government will target a debt to GDP ratio of 55.6% of gross domestic product for 2026-27 and the intention is to lower this going forward. Total government debt stands at 85% of GDP with the Centre accounting for 57% of it. This, as it stands, compares well with most other developed countries.

Second, there is an allocation of Rs 40,000 crores for electronics manufacturing, namely semiconductor or chip manufacturing. It is a second tranche to promote this vital sector, its R&D efforts, and training.

Third is the plan to develop 7 high speed rail corridors between major growth-oriented cities. These are Mumbai-Pune, Pune-Hyderabad, Hyderabad -Bengaluru, Hyderabad-Chennai, Chennai-Bengaluru, Delh-Varanasi, Varanasi-Siliguri.

Religious and pilgrimage tourism which has become a significant economic contributor in recent  times, with visitors to Ayodhya contributing 1% of GDP, and Varanasi proving to be a magnet with the largest number of visitors in the country, received careful attention in the budget. There will be new pilgrimage tourism circuits developed not only for Hindus but also Buddhists.

Several neglected ASI designated monuments will also receive restoration funds and initiatives. Other circuits for trekking in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will also be developed. Yet more for bird watching will be developed in Kerala, Assam and other states.

Many of the other announcements were intended as long-term structural adjustments to various sector incentives and duties towards the Vikshit Bharat targets for 2047. One example of this are the customs duty exemptions on components and parts to boost civil and defence aviation. India is keen to make its military and civilian aeroplanes in India now, along with  commercial ships and containers. This is in addition to a big push for military oriented ships and submarines, even another aircraft carrier, for the Indian Navy and Coast Guard. India is expanding its ports, container handling facilities, transshipment facilities along with setting up new ports along both coast lines and in the Andamans. Rs.10,000 crores will be invested in container manufacturing.

There is also a boost for inland waterways expansion for rare earth mining corridors in several states such as Odisha, Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu to aid its transportation via these waterways. 

There was a boost given to the intended establishment of Data Centres by foreign entities with a tax exemption provided till 2047 juxtaposed with encouragement for them to provide cloud services internationally and to Indian entities via Indian intermediaries. 

Likewise, another Rs. 10,000 crores was set aside as incentive to develop the bio-pharma space. India will also use Rs 20,000 crores to develop carbon capturing facilities. Seaplane manufacturing will be facilitated. Fishing at sea is being incentivised with no tax, and dropping off the catch abroad will be treated as an export.

There were incentives announced for education and skilling. There are a large number of small incentivisation for a variety of items in this budget. Tax compliance process too has been eased.

Given a fragile stock market that has underperformed other emerging markets, plagued by FII abandonment and heightened volatility, it could have done with some encouragement. A lot of money was sucked into a slew of IPOs in the primary market over the past year and a pronounced rupee weakness too has not helped.  A capital gains tax easing and removal of withholding tax on FIIs would have greatly enthused the market. But it was not to be. Instead, there was a 50% hike of STT on futures and 150% on options which is estimated to raise a modest Rs 25,000 crores.

These impositions, on the face of it, therefore are not big in their impact on F&O traders, but sharply damaged the market sentiment, at least in first reaction.  The market fell hardest in the last six years. But it could drive more FIIs away in the short to medium term towards freer markets elsewhere and reduce liquidity even in the cash market.

There was a pre-budget expectation for a boost in defence spending particularly for aatmanirbhar manufacturing.  This did come in the budget with a 15.3% hike to 7.84 lakh crores in the budget of which only  2.19 lakh crores  is for capital outlay. This did not please the street, with profit taking on defence stocks which had risen some 16% in the run up. It could also be that some further purchases will happen on an ad hoc basis going forward, as and when negotiations finalise. There is probably a case for most important and even reformist initiatives being taken off-budget in the future.

In the end, this union budget was a continuity budget signalling stability within the constraints of a tight fiscal situation and geopolitical turbulence.

 

(881 words)

February 1^st, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Why the EU President Calls The Imminent FTA with India The Mother Of All Deals

The 27 member EU, supported by its neighbouring countries, mostly in Eastern Europe, who also want to join it, is a very large and influential economic unit. Croatia was a recent entrant after many years of adjustments and preparation. The EU is a $22.52 trillion conglomerate on a nominal basis or $30.18 trillion on a PPP basis. Great Britain, no longer in the EU after Brexit, has already signed its own separate FTA with India recently.

The 32 member NATO, also largely European, are intertwined in many ways with the EU. The EU rivals the United States in heft and size, and as India’s negotiations with both approach closure, the FTA with the EU is likely to be signed first. It will no doubt have a knock-on effect on the Indo-US interim trade agreement too.

Agricultural products have been left out of the draft agreements in both cases because of Indian red lines. It employs large numbers working in, and dependent on, this sector, who cannot be allowed to be adversely affected by foreign, often highly subsidised competition. But for long, this area of possible business was keenly debated between the negotiating teams and took up much time.

As the old structures of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and similar bodies including those associated with the United Nations (UN), fall into disrepute, ineffectiveness and disuse, these FTAs between countries and groups of countries are gaining massive importance. India as the leader of BRICS at present and with strong ties with the  G-20/21, the Global South and the African Union, is pursuing many other bilateral agreements and cooperation.

The advanced countries, many hampered by low population and sluggish growth, are also looking for stimulation for the technological prowess in their economies, and an alternative to excessive dependence on China. India is an obvious alternative in principle as demonstrated by US giant Apple, though it will have to be built up, just as China once was.

The current European Commission President, German and a woman, Ms Ursula von der Leyen, in the top job as of 2019, recently called the imminent Free Trade Agreement with India the ‘mother of all deals’.

Coming in the backdrop of an aggressively tariffing United States, the prospect of trading freely with nearly 2 billion people representing almost 25% of the world’s GDP, is an exciting prospect indeed.

Long years in the negotiating, the India-EU FTA is likely to be signed on the 27^th of February, after the President of the EU Council, Mr Antonio Costa, and President of the European Commission, Ms Ursula von der Leyen grace the occasion as chief guests on  India’s 77^th  Republic Day on the 26^th of January 2026.

The world has changed a great deal in President Donald Trump’s second term  emphasis on ‘America First’, and added some urgency as well as flexibility to the FTA negotiating process.

 The EU has also just announced this week in Brussels that it will also proceed with a security and defence partnership with India as per the EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas. Both France and Germany are negotiating mega deals in fighter aircraft and submarine collaborations presently amongst other things. India is also favoured in the defence and other related and unrelated spheres by the United States, Israel, Russia, Brazil, Spain, Japan,  South Korea, and Britain, with various projects underway and under consideration.

India is also keen to make its own civilian aircraft, ships and tankers, its own computer chips in collaboration with Taiwan, other electronics manufacturing and assembly, rare earth mining and development, nuclear energy, railway and metro modernisation and development, in addition to a massive defence manufacturing push encompassing the army, navy, air force, space, satellite, deep sea,  and intelligence sectors.

From the Indian point of view, an FTA with the EU will boost technology absorption under its aatmanirbhar programmes in diverse fields, double the exports to Europe, lead to greater employment opportunities and exchanges including education and medical science, robotics, drones, UAVs, and progress in IT and AI adoption all to an unprecedented degree.  Indian trained and educated manpower is a strength not only in India but in Europe as well.  The EU-India FTA will be the biggest for India so far, representing a decisive entry into a global value chain.

The prospect of India signing the interim trade agreement with the US, recently endorsed by President Trump at Davos, despite the 50% tariffs imposed on India, will redouble India’s position in the global value chain with many leading American companies choosing to set up development centres in India. These include Google and Amazon. Once the EU-India FTA becomes a reality, the Americans will be keen to proceed with the Indo-US interim trade deal at the earliest too.

India’s multilateral approach has paid good dividends in terms of diversification of its collaborators and markets, and kept its growth trajectory intact and expanding, despite punitive tariffs imposed by the US. These tariffs are likely to be reduced shortly to no more than 15% even as other countries in the littoral who have been granted lower tariff rates compared to India, have not managed to keep pace with it.

It now seems certain that not only will India become the third largest economy in the world after the US and China by 2028 or 2030, but it will also become a middle-income economy with a per capita income of over $ 4,000 despite its massive globe beating population.

India is also edging closer to China in economic matters as its border tensions come under better control. This is important from the point of view of not being allied to any power blocks, but pursuing its strategic and national interest first. This is favoured, of course, by India’s long-term friend and ally Russia for balance, and makes it clear to those inimical to India’s progress that dogma is not a guiding principle for India.  As India strengthens its relationship with countries in West Asia, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Armenia, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and with those in the Asia-Pacific such as Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand, it gains rich dividends from its non-discriminatory and independent foreign policy. In time, India will be featured in most geo-political and strategic crossroads as a viable and valuable  partner.  

(1,045 words)

January 22^nd, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Amit Shah And The NAFCUB COOPKUMBH 2025 Seeks to Bring Cooperative Banking to Every Small Town And Hinterland Village

Home Minister Amit Shah who is also the Union Cooperation Minister  inaugurated the NAFCUB-COOPKUMBH 2025 in New Delhi on 11^th November. NAFCUB is the acronym for the National Federation of Urban cooperative Banks and Credit Societies. Amit Shah has held the Union Cooperation portfolio ever since it was formed in 2021, and retained it when the NDA government embarked on a new term in 2024. This is a testament to his imagination and dynamism that has greatly helped to boost this sector.

The conference, inaugurated in New Delhi, was an international pitch on the future of India’s urban cooperative banking sector. The international cooperative movement likes to learn from each other’s initiatives and success stories.  

The conference adopted a Delhi Declaration 2025, designed to serve as a guide for the expansion of Urban Cooperative Banking systems in India. The idea is to serve every town with a population of just 2 lakh people across the country within 5 years. This, while India has a population of more than 1.4 billion, the largest in the world.

 The international cooperative movement, called the International Cooperative Alliance (ICA) was established in 1895 in Britain, and has survived both the world wars despite sharp political differences amongst some of its member countries. It counts over a billion people in its ranks, members of three million cooperatives. The ICA also enjoys consultative status representation at the United Nations (UN).

The objective of the November 11^th conference is to provide cooperative banking in every nook and cranny, so that people in small towns and villages too have access to suitable and responsive banks. The cooperative construct creates a rootedness in the community that has been a hallmark of the movement. The endeavour is to provide inexpensive credit to agriculturists and MSMEs in small towns.

There will be early adoption of digital initiatives such as Sahkar Digipay and Sahkar-Digiloan apps. NAFCUB, which has been in existence since 1977 as an apex promotional body and multi-state cooperative society, has been directed to have 1,500 banks onboard Sahkar Digipay within two years. It has also been directed to upgrade as many thriving credit societies into urban cooperative banks (UCB) as possible. The Indian cooperative sector UCBs have improved their viability by bringing down their non-performing assets (NPAs), from 2.3% to 0.6% since 2023.

Internationally recognised organisations such as Amul and the Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative (IFFCO), are shining examples of success stories in the Indian cooperative sector. So why not excel also at last-mile banking?

The Ministry of Cooperation under Amit Shah has recently introduced a National Cooperative Policy 2025 which outlines a plan for modernising the cooperative sector over the next two decades. India has been a key member of the ICA ever since it established a regional office in New Delhi in 1960.It has been a driving force in shaping cooperative models that have had a favourable impact on other organisations particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.

Efforts in the ministry are ongoing to strengthen Primary Agricultural Credit Societies (PACS), dairy and fisheries cooperatives, through both digital and policy reforms. The Cooperation Ministry has already established multi-state cooperative societies for organic products, exports, and traditional seeds. All three are currently much fancied globally in the face of criticism of too much use of chemical fertiliser, and the use of genetically modified seeds.

 The Ministry of Cooperation has also set up the Tribhuvan Sahkari  University to strengthen  cooperative education and turn out skilled personnel for the sector.

 

578 words

December 5^th, 2025

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee