The Indian Stock Market Should Be Grown And Valued At USD 8 Trillion Reflecting Approximately Double The GDP For A Start

The stock market is a very important ingredient along with real estate for a country likely to become the third largest economy in the world after the United States and China. To neglect their development with an absence of incentives while extracting large slices of taxation, is a short-sighted policy.  

These two enterprise areas can be a magnet for hard currency foreign investment given the demand, which a weak rupee needs badly. In both cases, the stock market and real estate matters would have been much worse without the faith of the millions of domestic investors in the face of first Covid, and later multiple global headwinds including war, tariffs, and international economic difficulties.

This government has many accomplishments to its name. There is an unprecedented strong showing in infrastructure development over the last twelve years and a marked improvement in logistics. It has achieved a year-on-year growth in the GDP of around 7%, the highest in the world. India has had spectacular success in poverty alleviation as noted by the World Bank. And its international economic ratings have improved.  There have been impressive strides made in domestic defence and industrial production. We have food surpluses and general food security for more than 1.4 billion people. This government has made much progress on development of alternate energy resources. Our finances and national debt are in better shape than most countries. The list can go on.

However, Indian governance has failed to see the obvious and much greater potential of the stock market and real estate industry as major growth drivers. This has restricted both domestic enterprise and foreign investment. The good news is there appears to be a belated rethink.

Recently, without going into the technicalities, reforms in the debt market, cancellation of investment ceilings, abolition of capital gains taxation, streamlining of procedures, has resulted in a surge of foreign investment that has bolstered the rupee and foreign exchange reserves. This has come late but better than never.

India imports a great deal, in goods and services particularly from China, but most notably 90% of its oil, mostly using US dollars, despite efforts at dealing in national currencies and digital trade. And our exports, while much grown, are not varied and plentiful enough to boost the value of our currency. Foreign investment, particularly foreign direct investment is indeed up at some 30 billion USD in the last quarter alone, but again it could be a lot higher with greater incentives.

As for foreign portfolio investment (FPI), we have been doing badly. The withdrawals from our stock market over the last couple of years are so large that things would be in a dismal state if it were not for resilient domestic investment. Nevertheless, the Indian rupee has depreciated by almost 10% in 2026 alone. There have been a large number of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the primary market throughout 2026 as more and more companies have decided to go public. They recognise the stock market as an engine of growth via its resources and their market capitalisation. But the government has transaction taxes and capital gains tax that yield no more than 0.1 or 0.2 percent of GDP but dampens investment sentiment.

The Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, perhaps learning from the success of reforms in the debt market, is hinting at removal of these taxes in the equity markets, perhaps as early as the 2027 budget on February1st.

The Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have chosen to take out USD 30 billion so far in 2026, after leaving with about USD 18.6 billion in 2025. While part of the reason is to pursue the AI boom (turned bust recently) in other emerging markets such as South Korea, and of course in the US itself, the localised reasons such as elevated valuations of company shares, not very good performance statistics, the taxes not applied in other countries, a falling rupee that undermines hard currency investments.  

The Indian stock markets have been down for two years now with some signs of reviving at the possibility of much lower oil prices once the war in the Gulf is brought to a close. But these are proximate matters. The government could do its finances a big favour if it actively encouraged both the stock market and real estate by offering incentives instead of multiple taxes that end up not yielding much.  Look at the possibilities if the Indian stock markets and real estate were at double or more than the GDP.

The US stock market, the largest in the world, was valued at 78.7 trillion USD as on 30 September 2026, representing the market capitalisation of every US domiciled public company listed on the NYSE, the Nasdaq and the OTCOX US. This is at over twice its GDP of 32.64 trillion USD for 2026. There are other important stock markets with similar thematics.

The Indian stock market value on the same market capitalisation basis is approximately 5.04 trillion USD in 2026 as tracked by the NSE. The Indian GDP currently is at 4.06 trillion USD for 2026.

The Indian real estate market is presently valued at 585-600 billion USD and is only projected to reach a trillion by 2030. It too should be valued at 8 trillion USD but even 2047 projections only peg it at 5.8 trillion USD. It is even now the second largest employer, but contributes only 7.3% to the GDP when it should be able to contribute twice as much. A flood of foreign investment should be encouraged in this sector too, and multiple incentives offered, given the massive potential.

(930 words)

November 3^rd, 2026

For Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Low Strategic Political Diplomatic Interest In Western Newsrooms Citing Media Restrictions News Blackouts By Pakistani Regime

Even As Others Report Ruthless Military Bloodshed In PoK, Balochistan,& Widespread Battling With Separatists In Other Provinces Too

The unrest in the most important district of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) has in recent days claimed over one hundred lives at the hands of firing from the Pakistan Rangers. Unarmed demonstrators were shot in cold blood. Tear gas was used. Water cannons too.

There is a blanket ban on foreign media reporting by sending teams to the region, the internet has been cut off, and the only places foreign media can operate freely is in the far-away cities of Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi. The foreign media need NOCs to travel elsewhere. Al Jazeera has been banned for its reporting on PoK despite being from a fellow Islamic country.

By way of contrast, the recent CJP protests in New Delhi with their government overthrowing intentions and massive foreign backing by way of funds, received unrestricted and gleeful coverage in the Western media and internet-based mediums. The West likes to depict the NDA government as authoritarian and undemocratic, and ends up exposing only its bias and predetermined script. The West is fearful of India’s progress and feels threatened by it. So much so, that Zuckerberg’s Meta, erstwhile Facebook, is under investigation for taking down a video message from the prime minister. This, while giving all the critical and abusive noise from the students, their violent hired goons from amongst 2500 history sheeters, past their sell-by date celebrities attracted by the fee to attend, every liberty on its platform.

Meanwhile across the LoC, individuals travelling physically out of locked-down zones like Rawalkot and Mirpur carry saved video files, photographs, casualty lists on thumb drives or memory cards and upload them from Lahore, Islamabad or Karachi where the internet is allowed to work. Or sometimes, from border areas along the LoC where the signal from Indian Jammu and Kashmir is available.

The social media worldwide as a consequence is full of information on the repression in PoK, Balochistan-via the same methods mostly from Karachi, other parts of Pakistan where too guerilla warfare between Afghan and Baloch mujahideen and Pakistani security forces has become the order of the day. The formal media in the West, despite discouragement from their governments that wish to favour Pakistan, have no choice but to give it some coverage based sometimes on reportage and demonstrations from their capitals. There is too much on the social media from first hand sources, if not their own, for them to ignore.

Pressure groups of Kashmiris, human rights groups, students, are demonstrating in London and this has been widely covered in the British press. The recent second phase of ‘local elections’ held in PoK are mostly rigged and being called a sham by the locals and a ‘complete farce’ by India, though the West is largely silent on them.

Western Intelligence Services, including those in America, unlike the Western media they try to keep a lid on, know exactly what is going on in Pakistan and it terrifies them.  This critical situation on Pakistan’s stability is the well-known covert position. Without Pakistan as an effective pressure point, the West’s options with regard to India, China, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, West Asia, and so on is altered for the first time in 75 years, and will have to be viably reworked using other countries.

The West is horrified about a disintegrating Pakistan that is beyond their control or ability to prevent, despite the so-called and much flaunted nuclear weapons calculus. Trouble is, whether it works or not, it cannot be utilised without total self-destruction. India has already called Pakistan’s bluff on their resolve and preparedness during Operation Sindoor recently. It won’t hesitate to do so again if the situation warrants it, all the while having strengthened its own triad-based nuclear response mechanism for those who would like to threaten it.

India, for the moment, is quietly watching the proceedings in Pakistan, warily looking out for a terror strike or cross border attack upon it to distract the Pakistani people from their dire straits. Assuming India is not able to prevent and anticipate any misadventures, it stands to benefit from the break-away movement in PoK, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa if it has to retaliate.

Balochistan has already declared independence from Pakistan on August 11, 2026, and invited other countries to recognise it as such. It has made it very difficult for Pakistan to have any say in more than 42% of its landmass. Pakistan has lost hundreds of security forces in the mineral rich province in recent times. The Chinese built port of Gwadar, other mining locations where the Chinese run things, have become inoperative. The  Chinese built road from Xinkiang via PoK and through Pakistan is unsafe and in shambles.

India could, given the volatile circumstances, also use any attack either via the Pakistani theatres of the LoC and the international border, or in concert with Bangladesh, to its benefit when it inevitably retaliates. Either PoK/Gilgit Baltistan or the Chicken Neck area near Bangladesh, or indeed both, plus the Chittagong port area, could fall to India if the opportunity presents itself. It will be difficult for others to intervene under prevailing geopolitical circumstances. This, while India’s ally Afghanistan is hoping the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province along the disputed Durand Line also falls towards Afghanistan. PoK actually has a land border with Afghanistan as well, as does Balochistan.

Pakistan to the Western  strategic thinking is geographically well located to keep checks on India, China, Iran, Afghanistan, amongst other countries. To have it break up is a nightmare to it, and yet the West doesn’t have a way to keep its population, as opposed to  is miniscule powers-that-be in the Pakistani establishment satisfied.

The chickens are coming home to roost. Not only is West Punjab the dominant province, it is the nuclear-powered epicentre of Pakistan, and absorbs most of the resources. The country as a whole is bankrupt despite frequent injections of capital from the IMF and countries like Saudi Arabia. It still gets money and weapons from a disenchanted China owed bad loans in trillions of dollars, but still keen on using Pakistan against India. But who will take care of its 259.5 million people who are disgruntled and destitute?

Whatever monies Pakistan is able to get from abroad is gobbled up by its oligarchic military and political ruling class. There is no way to bypass the ruling elite and the people are at breaking point despite acute surveillance and repression. Pakistan is indeed without exaggeration on the brink of an imminent break-up caused by gross maladministration and its near starving masses. The crack-up could come within a year or two and when it does no amount of media blackout can keep the world from finding out.

 

  (1,111 words)

August 5^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Untimely Deaths Galore In A Callous Incompetent Nation Without Accountability

A recent judgement in Italy that took eight years and 280 hearings to reach a conclusion put a clutch of the responsible people in jail with sentences ranging from 12 years to five. It was for a bridge collapse that saw 480 people plunging to their deaths in their cars. But yes, all the culpable officials including the head of the bridge authority were punished in the end. This has never happened in India.

In India bridges collapse time and again in Goa and Bihar and sometimes even in Gujarat. Nothing happens to those responsible except for a scapegoat or two who are also let off when no one is looking. Tunnels bury people alive even after rescue efforts save a number. Cable cars hoist passengers hundreds of feet up in the air and if the cars don’t fall down then commandos have to rescue the passengers. Lifts in building crash through many floors. Trains collide due to signalling faults and hundreds die. Buses with drunken drivers fall into gorges. Dangerous roads. Dangerous drivers. No lights. Wrong side movements. Animals. Tractors. Little children.

Deaths, injuries, accidents caused by misadventure are routine in India. From bungee jumps and paragliding deaths to inadvertent poisonings, deliberate murders, crimes of passion. We die in many ways every day amongst our almost 1.5 billion people. Many occur in cars and on motorcycles killing people in or on them but also other innocents, children, bystanders, sleeping people. Liquor is often a companion to these tragedies, and if they involve young people, there is often a sense of invincibility that is suddenly cut off.

In addition, it is almost always accompanied by civic apathy, callousness, sub- standard workmanship, open drains without barriers, huge pits dug and left unattended with no signage, unmarked diversions which are nevertheless precarious, balconies and entire buildings that collapse with people in them and on people passing by. Fires, floods, in hotels, guest houses, coaching centres, with just one inaccessible entrance cum exit, fixed windows, all overbuilt illegally and with impunity. Whole high-rise buildings that have to brought down for faulty construction and illegal floors.

Corruption is rife and goes unpunished because of official collusion. The PWD, the NHAI amongst many other contractors and agencies build roads that develop craters, bridges and flyovers that collapse, more often than not killing people. It is an out-of-control phenomenon without end, perhaps linked to our belief in karma rather than any attempt to fix responsibility and improve accountability.

And then there is the curse of reservation that produces sub-standard administrators, engineers, doctors. A moribund and overburdened judiciary that takes decades to deliver a verdict. One that is not accountable owing to its  closed-loop collegium system.

Wilful negligence results from all this, as culpability does not usually lead to retribution or justice. One tragedy overlaps another and all is forgotten without need of forgiveness. Politicians usually throw some compensation money at the victim families and express routine regret before moving on. Life itself is cheap in India and the best thing anyone can do is look out for oneself.

Where do you begin if you want to improve matters? At least in Western countries where the population is small accountability stands a chance. Here we are masters at pass the buck. Fixing responsibility is well-nigh impossible when every action or the lack of it is diffused over an entire department. Besides, you cannot sack a government official. You can suspend or transfer him or her. You cannot stop the salary or perquisites, the housing or facilities during suspension. Only if a government official is convicted can he or she be dismissed and punitive measures like a stoppage of pension can be made. The sacked official can appeal in a court of law and if successful must be reinstated with full pay, perquisites, any loss of service restored. These laws were set up by the British to suit themselves. Independent India has carefully preserved them undiluted. It is tantamount to immunity of a kind peculiar to Indian bureaucracy and the politicians in parliament or the state assemblies cannot be brought to book except by their peers. Likewise, the judiciary. The private sector can be prosecuted and often is as a point of deflection, unless the bribery has been prophylactic.

In short if something is done properly in India, that is well and good, because if it is not there is little or no recourse. There are fast track courts just as overburdened as the regular ones. There are draconian laws that cannot be enforced until the judiciary is satisfied on the particulars of the case in question. We live in a Kafkaesque impasse.

The reforms that we need fly in the face of democratic freedoms. Simplicity cannot operate in a complex polity like ours. Millions die and will continue to do so to underline this fact. Some nominal activity always flows on from a tragedy. An FIR is filed. A court case is started. And that is that, because who can keep track of it after? This is a country where breaking the law and getting away with it is time-tested. The system itself protects the law-breaker from coming to any harm.

The problem is for the law abiding and civic sense-minded. They have to live on the scraps of our system though nobody will quite admit it. Digitalisation and various forms of forensics and transparency and the new-fangled AI are improving matters very slightly. But the grand overhaul that is called for is far away yet. The malaise is both systemic and attitudinal. All sides of the square look at each other with equal guilt and apathy. Will coming prosperity raise standards and make us demand better from ourselves?

 

(952 words)

27^th July 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Indian Credit Information Moving Into Foreign Hands In The Age Of AI

Nobel laureate Gabriel Garcia Marquez’s meandering novel Love In The Time Of The Cholera  writes of a continual but varied love between different protagonists from youth to old age with a leading pair to anchor the story. This love itself, a main character, is not just an emotion but all-consuming force that keeps mutating. The novel contrasts decades of passionate longing, letters pored over, short affairs that inevitably occur, denial, lies, confessions, underpinned by the virtues of companionable, respectable, marriage. The cholera is the possibility of lurking disease and sudden death in the backdrop.

Attempts to make money are similar in their energy.The everlasting quest between potential seller and buyer fuelled by an unquenchable, amoral, immortal ambition. Nowadays it is not enough to be enticing via advertisements and brand ambassadors. The commercial engine wants an inside track like the Watergate break-ins. This is via the collection of profile and financial data, history, habits, all to be yoked together with new-fangled artificial intelligence and super-fast data-crunching.

Meta, which grew out of a Harvard college room and began as Facebook, those decades ago in order to connect students on campus, has recently paid 900 million USD for a 20% stake in the Indian firm CRED. This, while hiring its founder Kunal Shah as head of WhatsApp worldwide. The platform is one of Meta’s prior acquisitions. WhatsApp now has an Indian consumer base of 500 million people. CRED has more than 17 million users via incentivisation to join. It processes more than 40% of credit card payments in the country. Obviously their data base contains a lot of the better-heeled.

You can already see the Love in the Time of the Cholera style meandering. It is tentacular, going relentlessly into mostly American hands. More so, when you contemplate the money-flows. Who can resist fat USD offers? Certainly not the bright Indians that create marvellous digital architecture such as Aadhar and UPI, and brilliant payment apps, acknowledged as the best in the world.

Walmart via its purchase of Flipkart now controls 72% of PhonePe. Google owns GooglePay of course, and Meta owns WhatsApp Pay with its 500 million potential Indian users. That’s more people than several Western country populations put together. And remember India is growing at roughly 7% in GDP year-on-year. It has a middle class with purchasing power approaching 750 million people.

India offers a humungous consumer market size with its 1.5 billion strong population, the biggest in the world now. China may be almost as populous but it controls its own digital architecture and financial apps 100%, with no foreigner interests whatsoever. However, their consumers are concentrated in their urban hubs and not so spread out as in India with its multiple tiers of cities and towns all full of aspiration.

The fig leaf that allows access to it all is called consent. But every time an individual or organisation uses a private financial app, the process involves agreeing to a lot of profile and credit information including past transactions, spending habits, and so on, passing over seamlessly to forces unknown. This information can be used in a variety of ways-to sell various goods, services, financial products, insurance, wealth management, offer loans, buy property. And, if things go awry, or there is motivation towards it, lead to cyber-attacks via compromised passwords and other data in online platforms connected to laptops, smart phones.

India also has official credit profiling organisations. These collect and analyse credit and loan repayment data to calculate credit scores for individuals and credit ranking for businesses. But even here the meandering tentacles of the foreign entities is apparent. CRISIL is an S&P company, ICRA is an affiliate of Moody’s, another, IND-RA is affiliated to Fitch. So sovereignty over financial and other dats does not exist.

It is reasonable to conclude that despite some government oversight from the RBI and SEBI, the entire space is infiltrated by mostly American organisations. It is already too late to worry about credit information slipping into foreign hands though purchases such as the one just made by Meta may give us a jolt. Perhaps the consequent goods and services available to Indians benefit from the international ownership. Many countries have little problem with selling most things not directly connected to national security to others. What frenemies like China and outright enemies like Pakistan could do with our data is worrisome, but the horse nevertheless seems to have bolted. To worry about it in nationalist terms despite the security implications, is futile without the indigenous investment and infrastructure to go with it. The motive forces are a combination of the passion of uncontrolled love combined with the logic and sedateness of marriage. Gabriel Garcia Marquez knew what he was writing about and the vagaries of human nature. Even though it is difficult to see the substance in the people who bemoan the transfer of Indian financial data to foreign hands without the ability to offer alternatives. Are they failing to acknowledge a ground reality? And in the end, nobody can sell you anything unless you are willing to buy. Buying and selling is a lot like love after all.

(855 words)

June 25^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Can The Gulf States Defend Themselves Without the US?

On the very first day of the current conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran on 28^th February 2026, the Iranians claimed they knocked out the over $ 1 billion worth of AN/FPS-132 missile defence radar. It warns of incoming aerial threats and guides America’s state-of-the-art THAAD missiles.

In India, we chose the Russian S-400 over the THAAD, braving possible US sanctions, and it has proved to be very effective and at cheaper cost. THAAD vs S-400 and S-500 has been demonstrated in the Russian Ukraine War as well.

That reports say Iran destroyed the billion dollar radar with a $ 20,000 Shahed drone. This has been the huge mismatch in this war.

Shaheds in their thousands, versus America’s Tomahawks and other missiles that cost millions of dollars. Of course, Iran used ballistic and hypersonic missiles as well, but partially to wear out the Israeli Dome and other air defences. In many ways America did not prepare well for this war before launching into it.

This radar attack was at America’s major naval base at Manama, Bahrain. The Americans denied the loss, and said a much less important installation was hit, even as satellite pictures showed substantial damage at the naval base in addition. There is a lot of misinformation from both sides and sometimes no information at all.

Compare this patchy performance with the effectiveness of multiple and varied indigenous and imported air defences controlled by the Indian Air Force during Operation Sindoor.  Amazingly, they ensured not a single Pakistani missile, mostly of Chinese origin, or the Turkish supplied drones, did any damage to any military bases or civilian targets, including the Golden Temple at Amritsar. Indian missiles including the famed BRAHMOS devastated Pakistani targets and destroyed their Chinese-made air defences.

Israel, meanwhile, also on day one, wiped out the supreme leader and a large number of the top leadership in Tehran using very powerful bombs. It expected this decapitation of Iran’s top-drawer leadership would collapse the ruling regime. It is what happened in Venezuela but the Islamic regime in Iran is very different.

This notion was clearly premature in Iran’s layered system. And now, very importantly, the intelligence gathered by the US and Israel seems to have fallen short of the locations of hundreds of missiles and drones stored by Iran in reinforced tunnels underground, all over the country. This in addition to over 400 Kg of enriched weapons grade uranium that remains secreted.

The US and Israel should have anticipated this, because the Hamas in Gaza, inspired, financed, and armed by Iran, also held out for a very long time using their network of tunnels and underground storage facilities.

Meanwhile, after 17 days of this war, the pounding of Iran from the air continues, after its air defences and out-of-date air force was knocked out early in the day. But, a daily quota of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel, the American forces on sea and land, and the countries of the Gulf keeps raining down using a decentralised system.

The US, Gulf states and Israeli air defences are too expensive for the showers of inexpensive Iranian Shahed drones and expendable ballistic missiles. America is just beginning to retaliate likewise with its Lukas drones and Laser weapons, but this has come late and is another glaring intelligence failure. Billions of dollars have been spent but Iran’s regime is still able to fight back. There are hints of much heavier duty missiles still in stock as well.

The real issue is not whether American bases are required in the Gulf because that is a foregone conclusion, but their unpreparedness in the face of superior Iranian strategy and tactics.

The Gulf countries, shaken by the violence, are now keen on the Americans finishing the job of ousting the Iranian regime. They have overcome their earlier ambivalence and are much more alert to incoming attacks.  

The Islamic regime has been in power for 47 years and most recently survived a savage attack on its nuclear facilities by the US and Israel less than a full year ago. They have apparently been preparing for another attack ever since.

The Gulf States have afforded US military bases in most of their countries for decades now, ever since West Asia became independent from erstwhile British rule before WWII. Some still have British and French bases as well. Among other reasons, this is because with low native populations, even their armed forces are manned, trained and officered to a large extent by expatriates. This was long felt to be clearly inadequate.

However, despite the American military presence in multiple countries all over the Gulf, tasked by the host countries to be defensive in nature rather than as pads for offensive military action, Iran has been able to play havoc with them.

It has penetrated US air defences, attacked and significantly damaged assets, and caused combatant casualties, using waves of drones and missiles. Iran has also recently knocked out six of the US refuelling planes necessary for the fighter aircraft and bombers flying long missions. The Russians and Chinese are said to be providing locational intelligence, weapons and spare parts to Iran.

 This destruction is happening not only at the American bases including at a massive airbase in Qatar, another in Saudi Arabia, yet another in Kuwait, and a naval base in Bahrain that houses its 5^th fleet.

In addition, Iran has swiftly attacked oil assets including refineries and storage tanks, terminals for loading the oil and gas into tankers, buildings, other facilities, much more widely in all the host countries. This, to punish them for hosting American bases and spiral oil prices out of control as production facilities shut down to limit damage. Even as the true extent of the damage done to Iran is masked, the regime is setting stiff terms for the end of the war and demanding the US bases be removed. They know that next time it won’t be so easy.

The Iranian strategy has been to widen the war to include the Gulf states and others farther afield including bases, houses, and embassies in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Iraq, Lebanon, sometimes using proxies.

In addition, Iran has blocked the Straits of Hormuz except to select vessels from China, India, Pakistan on a case-by-case basis after negotiations The Straits of Hormuz is the narrow artery through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas reaches elsewhere. Oil prices have risen to over $ 100 a barrel and threaten to rise higher. The Iranians are set to have mined the straits and are capable of drone and explosive laden boat attacks despite the destruction of most of its navy. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to Yanbu and a terminal on the Red Sea but it  has limited carrying capacity and cannot meet all the demand.

For Iran, the main enemy continues to be Israel and the US after the start of the third week of this current war, but all their allies are declared targets of the regime in Iran and its IRGC fighters in particular, not only in the theatre of war in West Asia, but elsewhere in the world. Even American companies in West Asia have been declared as targets.  At the same time, America’s European allies have been most reluctant to get involved in this war. The economic damage is rivalling the military toll with no end in sight. It is clearly up to America to finish what they have started with a Prince Pahlavi waiting to provide a transitional government. Another school of thought is calling for a ceasefire and negotiations. The realistic assessment is that a ceasefire does not mean this war wont flare up again after a pause.  

Iran did fight Iraq to a standstill for eight years not very long ago. In earlier centuries there have been 30 year and 100 year wars too. It did not mean that both sides fought continuously, but they did fight to an eventual resolution.

(1,327 words)

March 17^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

The Upcoming Transshipment Port In The Great Nicobar Along with an Airbase Is A Major Gain For International Commercial Shipping And The Andaman Theatre Military Command

The recently opened Vizhinjam International Transshipment Deepwater Multipurpose Seaport on the tip of Kerala facing the Indian Ocean, is already a resounding success.

It has been used by the largest container ships in the world, and its state-of-the-art automated AI assisted facilities are deeply appreciated by international shipping plying in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Vizhinjam is situated just 10 nautical miles from major international East-West shipping routes. Developed as a public-private partnership with port major, the Adani Group, Phase 1 already handles 1 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units). It is going to be expanded in due course to 6.2 million TEUs in later phases. The deepwater transshipment port has a natural draft of 20-24 metres and minimal littoral drift.

Now India has announced it is going to replicate this lucrative, strategic and commercial breakthrough, the first of its kind on the subcontinent, with another deepwater transshipment port in the Great Nicobar Islands located strategically just 40 nautical miles from the extremely busy Malacca Straits.

China, active in the IOR for several years now, has a number of port bases in various countries, but no deepwater transshipment ports. The nearest transshipment port in the IOR beyond Vizhinjam, is in Colombo, Singapore, and Port Klang. The others are farther away in the Asia-Pacific.

The International Container Transshipment Port (ICTP) at Galathea Bay in the Great Nicobar Island will be constructed alongside a fully equipped airbase with stretch runways for large and heavy civilian/military aircraft, power infrastructure, and other  defence installations plus an integrated purpose built township.

The overall investment eventually will be in the region of Rs.100,000 crores, starting with the first phase of the port at a cost of some Rs. 20,000 crores.

Like Vizhinjam, the Galathea Bay transshipment Port (ICTP) also has a natural draught depth of over 20 metres. The first phase is expected to be commissioned by 2028, with a handling capacity of 4 million TEUs, rising to 16 million TEUs in phase 4. The First phase of the Galathea Bay Port includes two breakwaters, a 400 meter wide channel for navigation, an 800 metre wide turning circle, seven berths at over 2.3 km length, a container yard with 125 ha, automated equipment for handling the containers including RMQCs (Rail mounted Quay Crane) and RTGs (Rubber Tyred Gantry) and two berths to handle liquid cargo. Like Vizhingam, It will also be a public private partnership and invite foreign investment as well.

Adani, with considerable port expertise at Mundhra and other ports in India, is already cooperating with Marseille Port in France and others in Israel and Greece as well.

 The ITCP transshipment port spread over 166 sq.km. is located southwest of Campbell Bay and the INZ Baez Naval Port. It is currently connected by the Campbell Bay-Galathea Bay road and Galathea Bridge No.46 built by the BRO(Border Roads Organisation). All these are likely to be enhanced to suit the development.  

Positioned ideally to tap into the trade between Asia, Africa, the US and Europe that passes through the IOR, the ICTP at Galathea Bay will compete with Singapore, Colombo and Port Klang in the near area that presently handles the transhipped cargo in the region that has not been tapped by Vizhinjam in Kerala.

The potential commercially is enormous if one realises that the prosperity of Shanghai, Shenzen and Singapore is partially and substantially based on its port efficiencies, its logistical sophistication, and the massive transshipment cargoes they handle. The ITCP at Galathea Bay is projected to generate at least Rs. 30,000 crores per annum in the first phase and provide over 50,000 jobs.

Great Nicobar Island  is the southernmost and largest of the Nicobar islands group. It is about 520 Km from Port Blair. It is located  on the main east-west international shipping route almost equidistant from Colombo, Malaysia’s Port Klang, and Singapore.

India’s container traffic stood at 17 million TEUs in 2020 compared to China’s 246 million TEUs. This provides some idea of the scope for growth India is now tapping into, with its two strategically located transshipment ports. Till now, India’s own transshipment cargo was being handled by other ports.

The entire Andaman & Nicobar Islands are also being gradually developed for tourism and fisheries, while defence is a key objective in several of the islands, as in Lakshadweep which is very close to the Maldives and not very far from Mauritius.  

Simultaneously, India is developing its existing and new greenfield ports along both sea boards. It is also expanding its ship-building, submarine and aircraft carrier building capacity, for military and civilian applications for both domestic use and exports. These include oil tankers and on-order ships for other countries. India is also turning into a repair and refurbishing hub for itself and allied naval fleets, including those of the US operating in the IOR and the Asia-Pacific.

India is also looking into deep water mineral harvesting and blue water economies in deep sea fishing to a much more organised degree, given that China is already very active in these areas too. Other countries are even fishing in our territorial waters.

Most importantly, developments in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are positioning India as a strategic and commercial partner in the Arabian Sea, the IOR and the Bay of Bengal without losing any more time over it.

(882 words)

February 18^th, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee

 

Budget Announcements- Good For Its Capex Increase, Chip Manufacturing, High-Speed Rail Corridors, Sentiment Dampener For Stock Markets

The Budget presentation on Sunday February 1^st, 2026 held few surprises. It made three marquee announcements- raising the Capex budget by one lakh crores to 12.2 lakh crores. This will certainly help to keep the GDP growth on track at around 7% per annum via continued infrastructure development.

However, there are no direct incentives for greater private sector capex unless they choose to take up one or the other of the several incentivised sectors for boosting manufacturing.

The macro-economic markers have been preserved intact by this prudent budget, marked by incremental continuity rather than big bang initiatives.

The fiscal deficit target has been set at 4.3% of GDP for 2026-27. The government will target a debt to GDP ratio of 55.6% of gross domestic product for 2026-27 and the intention is to lower this going forward. Total government debt stands at 85% of GDP with the Centre accounting for 57% of it. This, as it stands, compares well with most other developed countries.

Second, there is an allocation of Rs 40,000 crores for electronics manufacturing, namely semiconductor or chip manufacturing. It is a second tranche to promote this vital sector, its R&D efforts, and training.

Third is the plan to develop 7 high speed rail corridors between major growth-oriented cities. These are Mumbai-Pune, Pune-Hyderabad, Hyderabad -Bengaluru, Hyderabad-Chennai, Chennai-Bengaluru, Delh-Varanasi, Varanasi-Siliguri.

Religious and pilgrimage tourism which has become a significant economic contributor in recent  times, with visitors to Ayodhya contributing 1% of GDP, and Varanasi proving to be a magnet with the largest number of visitors in the country, received careful attention in the budget. There will be new pilgrimage tourism circuits developed not only for Hindus but also Buddhists.

Several neglected ASI designated monuments will also receive restoration funds and initiatives. Other circuits for trekking in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand will also be developed. Yet more for bird watching will be developed in Kerala, Assam and other states.

Many of the other announcements were intended as long-term structural adjustments to various sector incentives and duties towards the Vikshit Bharat targets for 2047. One example of this are the customs duty exemptions on components and parts to boost civil and defence aviation. India is keen to make its military and civilian aeroplanes in India now, along with  commercial ships and containers. This is in addition to a big push for military oriented ships and submarines, even another aircraft carrier, for the Indian Navy and Coast Guard. India is expanding its ports, container handling facilities, transshipment facilities along with setting up new ports along both coast lines and in the Andamans. Rs.10,000 crores will be invested in container manufacturing.

There is also a boost for inland waterways expansion for rare earth mining corridors in several states such as Odisha, Kerala, Andhra and Tamil Nadu to aid its transportation via these waterways. 

There was a boost given to the intended establishment of Data Centres by foreign entities with a tax exemption provided till 2047 juxtaposed with encouragement for them to provide cloud services internationally and to Indian entities via Indian intermediaries. 

Likewise, another Rs. 10,000 crores was set aside as incentive to develop the bio-pharma space. India will also use Rs 20,000 crores to develop carbon capturing facilities. Seaplane manufacturing will be facilitated. Fishing at sea is being incentivised with no tax, and dropping off the catch abroad will be treated as an export.

There were incentives announced for education and skilling. There are a large number of small incentivisation for a variety of items in this budget. Tax compliance process too has been eased.

Given a fragile stock market that has underperformed other emerging markets, plagued by FII abandonment and heightened volatility, it could have done with some encouragement. A lot of money was sucked into a slew of IPOs in the primary market over the past year and a pronounced rupee weakness too has not helped.  A capital gains tax easing and removal of withholding tax on FIIs would have greatly enthused the market. But it was not to be. Instead, there was a 50% hike of STT on futures and 150% on options which is estimated to raise a modest Rs 25,000 crores.

These impositions, on the face of it, therefore are not big in their impact on F&O traders, but sharply damaged the market sentiment, at least in first reaction.  The market fell hardest in the last six years. But it could drive more FIIs away in the short to medium term towards freer markets elsewhere and reduce liquidity even in the cash market.

There was a pre-budget expectation for a boost in defence spending particularly for aatmanirbhar manufacturing.  This did come in the budget with a 15.3% hike to 7.84 lakh crores in the budget of which only  2.19 lakh crores  is for capital outlay. This did not please the street, with profit taking on defence stocks which had risen some 16% in the run up. It could also be that some further purchases will happen on an ad hoc basis going forward, as and when negotiations finalise. There is probably a case for most important and even reformist initiatives being taken off-budget in the future.

In the end, this union budget was a continuity budget signalling stability within the constraints of a tight fiscal situation and geopolitical turbulence.

 

(881 words)

February 1^st, 2026

For: Firstpost/News18.com

Gautam Mukherjee