Can India Move Fast Enough To Dovetail State & General Elections By 2019?

Can India Move Fast Enough To Dovetail State & General Elections By 2019?

The big plus in favour of holding simultaneous elections to the states and parliament, maybe even to the panchayats and urban local bodies in due course, is, potentially, enormous savings.

This extends to time, the campaigning energy of the major leads, and money.

But the desperately needed, system-saving gain, will be the slashing of expense.

The money part, in particular, not of the government supervisory and security mechanisms, but of the electioneering process itself, has of late, run away with itself.

Electioneering costs, as distinct and contrasted with the also considerable administrative and logistical expenses incurred by the government via the Election Commission (EC), and the para-military forces that provide official security etc., has now reached stratospheric levels.

And it partially leads to subsequent corruption amongst some of the elected. Consider why the Maharashtra Revenue Minister Khadse had to go, just days ago.

The RBI governor, Raghuram Rajan, recently pointed out that Rs. 60,000 crores was circulating in cash, during, and before, just four state elections and that of a union territory.

It is an open secret that the cost of so called ‘free and fair’ elections in the Indian democratic system, and even in the US, are spinning out of control. And in India, quite a lot of it, is down to bribery.

To wit, another blatant scandal of ‘horse trading’ of between Rs. 5-10 crores, per vote, when about 1o to 12 were needed, in indirect elections (via MLAs), to the Rajya Sabha, in Karnataka. This, plus promises of Rs. 100 crores of ‘development funds’ to be given to those pliant independent MLA’s,  ostensibly for their constituencies, if they voted now for the desired Congress/JD(S) candidates. All this has emerged on camera in a recent media sting operation.

And this, after the EC had countermanded two assembly elections, mired in bribery, in neighbouring Tamil Nadu too.

Note, all this is in addition to actual campaigning costs, which were mentioned in the same sting, at around Rs. 25 crores, for a single MLA to win his seat to the assembly in Karnataka.

No doubt therefore, that some of the consensus on demand for change, is coming from this very concern over unsustainable expenses.

Another, more legitimate reason for high costs, is due to the fact that the heads of most regional parties, and governments, in the states, as well as at the centre, tend to be the chief campaigners.

They work alongside the local politicians, endorsing their candidature, building their stature with the voters, and enthusing the party cadre.

The top leadership however, need to be near omnipresent- dashing about by aircraft and helicopter these days, and less by relatively slow surface transport.

They even appear, though it is mostly Modi so far, in front of their audiences at multiple locations, via high-tech and yes, very costly, hologram.

All this, irrespective of the very modest, restricted, totally outdated and anachronistic amounts a candidate and his backers are allowed to ‘officially’ spend.

It is expected, as a consequence of conducting elections to state and centre simultaneously, that a window of opportunity will also open up towards an uninterrupted cycle of governance thereafter.

It would prevent the stops and starts in policy and administrative actions, prevent perpetual   campaign, rather than administrative mode, and periodic imposition of the ‘model code of conduct’. This latter entails severe restrictions on anything that can be construed as ‘inducements’.

The big bogey against the adoption of simultaneous elections at this juncture however, is the very fact that Narendra Modi seems so keen on it. The prime minister may see it as a major administrative reform that could streamline the election process and improve governance thereafter. But, to his rivals, this is the man who generated his own wave of Tsunami proportions in 2014, earning himself an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha for the first time in 30 years.

 And in 2019, he is expected to do his best to repeat the feat. And therefore, any measure that may help him do so, must be resisted.

Those opposed therefore, don’t want to listen to any of the nice logic- Congress, the Left, TMC, and sadly, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, have declared their opposition to the move already.

But, at the same time, there are several regional parties who are for the proposition: there’s AIADMK and DMK both; Asom Gana Parishad, SAD with some codicils about what would happen if there were ‘hung assemblies’ returned, The Indian Union Muslim League, and, significantly, the present Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Nasim Zaidi.

Even the Congress Chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee  E.M. Sudarsana Natchiappan, that recommended the measure in December 2015, is in favour, even if his party is opposed.

Natchiappan thinks, with regard to implementation, at a minimum, all the state assembly elections that come due in any given year, can be bunched together. Others can be taken up at the mid-term of the central government’s tenure, and others still, left over, can be scheduled at the same time as the general elections.

The committee under Natchiappan’s stewardship, has justified the simultaneous conduct of polls, mainly for great cost savings. It has suggested the adjustment of state elections for those entities where the assembly term ends six months or so before, as well as those that end six months or so after, to coincide with the dates set for general elections.

In April 2016, at a conference with the chief ministers and chief justices, the prime minister supported the idea for the first time, saying: ‘Things get stalled and a lot of time is spent on elections’.

Next, the Election Commission endorsed the recommendations. The matter had been referred to it by the Law Ministry. In May 2016, the EC came back to the Law Ministry, broadly agreeing with the parliamentary standing committee, while making some observations of its own.

It will cost some Rs. 9, 300 crores in extra Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), and Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trail (VVPAT) machines , said the EC, and these gadgets will have to be replaced after 15 years.

It will probably take 3,500 companies of paramilitary forces, instead of the 800 companies required, when elections are held separately.

It will also, very importantly, need a constitutional amendment to either curtail or extend the term of some state assemblies to accommodate a common poll schedule.

A committee has been set up by the Law Ministry, immediately on receipt of the EC nod, already 45 days or so ago, and it is expected to give its recommendations within a 90 day deadline.

All of it sounds good to the BJP. Besides it also had this reform written into its Election Manifesto of 2014.

General and state elections were actually being held together, till  1967. Then, there were premature dissolutions of state assemblies in 1968, and 1969. The Lok Sabha itself was dissolved early in 1970, with general elections held in 1971. This interrupted the cycle, and there have been separate elections to the state assemblies and parliament, ever since.

The Panchayats and urban local bodies, though they have only been mentioned in passing right now, have only grown in importance over the years, and have to enter the equation soon.

Not everyone is happy with the rush, even though a preliminary all-party dinner during the recently concluded Budget Session had BJD’s Bhartruhari Mahtab suggesting the matter should be discussed by all parties.

The government, on its part, hopes to put this reform in motion, including all-party consensus and constitutional amendments, well before the 2019 elections.

The nay-sayers however, are raising doubts, saying the move may be politically motivated, as people tend to vote en masse for the same party, if state and parliamentary elections are combined.

Indira Jaisingh, former Additional Solicitor General, says there would be confusion amongst under-educated voters, who wouldn’t know if they were voting for their state or parliament. Former Chief Election Commissioner, S.Y. Quraishi, is against the proposition too; as is Senior Advocate Kamini Jaiswal- all for broadly similar reasons.

Notwithstanding all of this, the broad tide is definitely moving towards a revival of simultaneous elections. And enough support to see it through, already exists amongst the constituents of parliament today.

For: Swarajyamag

(1,363 words)

June 10^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee