Tightening The Screws

Tightening The Screws

The Congress Party may have blundered by deciding to up the ante  much too early. It has little to show for its noisy obstructionism in parliament, except for the wilful blocking of the GST and Land Bills. This has harmed the economy much more than the BJP. And its petulant name -calling and cynical use of excitable students outside, hasn’t done much better than a lead balloon either.

Congress is in some danger of running out of steam, with three whole years to go. It undertook this reckless and confrontational course under the non-leadership of Rahul Gandhi. This, despite being reduced to a rump in parliament. It took premature heart perhaps, from the NDA’s humiliating defeats in the assembly elections of Delhi and Bihar.

And also perhaps from the inexplicable timidity on the government’s part to press on with prosecutions. However, with Congress belligerence unrestrained, the Modi government too might have decided to take the kid gloves off. Apparently, the attempt to try and get along and form consensus has utterly failed, and a tougher line has emerged since the start of the first part of this budget session.

It is, after all, very difficult for the Congress to profess outrage over the relatively minor alleged transgressions of the BJP/NDA/RSS. And also tiresome of it to keep waving the communal card via staged ‘intolerance’ agitations. This, particularly, when it is hard pressed by countless skeletons that keep tumbling out of its own UPA era cupboards.

And these shenanigans are not only corrupt and exploitative, but criminal in nature, and appear to involve the top leadership of the erstwhile ruling combine.   

After the National Herald case, in which both Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi were personally indicted, necessitating their obtaining bail; the Augusta Westland scam has erupted again.

This time, ironically, it is the Italian court that has mentioned Indian Congress recipients of bribery, including ‘the family’ that was allegedly paid a whopping Rs. 225 crores. This, over just six unsuitable helicopters!

Former multiple-time finance minister/home minister P Chidambaram is not only accused of personally doctoring the papers on an LeT operative sent to eliminate current prime minister Modi, but of falsifying the thrust of investigations.

The attempt was to allege that Modi’s Gujarat government killed the LeT operative Ishrat Jahan, who was portrayed as an innocent student, along with her male associates, in a ‘fake’ police ‘encounter’.

In addition, Chidambaram’s son Karti, is accused of amassing masses of property worth millions of dollars. These are in hot-spots all over the world, allegedly owned by the Chidambarams, but through benami deals. This was only revealed because the properties have all been willed to Karti’s daughter, by a bewilderingly diverse set of people who are ostensibly the current owners.

These two issues have come to the fore just as the second half of the budget session has begun. But there are several other problems for Congress simmering in the background.

There are revolts from within at some of the few states it still controls, such as Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and apparently, Manipur too.

And, as usual, there are reports of state level corruption too, not only in the lower levels of government, but engulfing the chief ministers of Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh as well. The latter is being investigated by the ED and tax authorities for some time now.

All this,  when the Modi government, by way of contrast, is showing some early signs of consolidation.  A ministerial reshuffle is impending, and expected to reflect Modi’s views much more emphatically than was possible two years ago. There are some new inductees in the Rajya Sabha under the nominated quota. They will help the BJP make a better case for itself in the upper house, particularly with the hugely well-deserved inclusion of Subramanian Swamy.

The economy meanwhile, is slowly reviving, with the GDP up to about 7.3% p.a.. Inflation is largely controlled, interest rates are moderating, the CAD is practically non-existent, and the fiscal deficit is firmly boxed in at 3.5% .

FDI at some $51 billion, is at an all-time high. The relationships in the SAARC region and farther afield, particularly with the US and Japan, are making steady progress.

After three droughts, the monsoon forecasts are good this year. If they fructify, it will go some way to relieve the massive distress in rural India. It is another matter that Indian agriculture, and indeed its floods and droughts, are so much a matter of the weather, instead of harnessed science and technology.

This government is determined to double farm income across the country, and therefore must tackle fundamental challenges posed by too much or too little water that face a good half of our massive population. This even as the services sector has stolen a march on all else with a 61% share in the GDP!

Politically, if Assam slips into the NDA camp, after the assembly elections, much of the other states in the north east may well follow suit.

While this will come as a much needed shot in the arm for the BJP, after   its  recent bad showing in state elections, it will herald, (there’s that word again), the beginning of the end of Congress as a national party.

Congress hasn’t been in power in electorally important UP for over thirty years, and despite the use of a master strategist that helped Modi win the general elections and the mahagatbandhan  into power in Bihar, it may prove a bridge too far in 2017.  

Karnataka is also under threat, after Congress chief minister Sidaramiah’s controversies, and the revival of former CM Yedurappa in the BJP camp. Punjab may be a hard fight too, with AAP looking good.

Kerala also may see a change of government, and again, not to the betterment of the Congress. And joining hands with the Communists   might give it a few seats in West Bengal, but is not expected to unseat the TMC. In Tamil Nadu it is possible that the AIADMK may retain power and leave the DMK supported by Congress, out in the opposition once again.

The efforts of the ambitious chief minister of Bihar, Nitish Kumar to form an anti-BJP front nationally, is not getting much traction. This partially because of widely differing regional vested interests, and also because there is no dearth of prime ministerial aspirants.

If it is a crystal ball that one is gazing at therefore, it looks very unlikely that Narendra Modi will be unseated in 2019, given his own hard work, the weakening of internal and external opposition, the advantages of incumbency, and the TINA factor.  

For: The Pioneer

(1,099 words)

April 26^th, 2016

Gautam Mukherjee