Straight Bat Modi 2.0 Will Drive Hard

Straight Bat Modi 2.0 Will Drive Hard

Despite the name-calling and Opposition thunder, there is a great energy about Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his alter ego, BJP President Amit Shah. The latter is credited, at least partially, for the NDA’s   still impressive electoral footprint after five years in power.

Modi, a loner who is a consummate contact politician at the same time, is popular as ever with the people. He has grown in confidence, stature, tone and tenor.

National security is a priority with the Modi government that the promulgation of the long pending OROP demonstrated quite early in the administration. Today, it is probably the main poll plank of the BJP.

Modi, who sometimes sits on issues, can also be very decisive as recent events with regard to Pakistani terrorism have shown. But now, having crossed the Rubicon, not once but twice, the matter of integrating J&K into India, and putting paid to separatist ambitions, has become urgent.

This election of 2019, which Modi expects to win, promises to be a watershed. There are signals that he wants to reboot and redefine the BJP.

The avuncular ways of the Vajpayee era are truly over.  Having run through five years with a number of signal successes like the advent of  GST and redefinition of relations with bugbear Pakistan and bête noir China, Modi now wants to assert the BJP in brighter saffron hues.  

There will be no further truck with the Nehruvian “Idea of India”, with its anti-majority bias, imported economic ideas, and broken secularism.

In its place, Modi’s “New India” will project a more authentic vision, one that puts national self-interest first, and is no longer divorced from the Bharatvarsha it sprang from.

 This confidence to make a break with the past has come with familiarisation of the ways at Raisina Hill, as well as from a long list of tactical, strategic, political, economic, diplomatic, governance, and electoral successes. Modi also senses the aspirations of India’s young electorate to a remarkable degree. The fact that he is incorruptible is probably his individual best suit. Narendra Modi today is an influential man, grown in international stature to the first rank of global politicians.

There is going to be a sea-change in Modi 2.0 from all present indications.

One major item has already been announced. Articles 35A and 370 that regulates the relationship with J&K  will be removed. The Kashmir Valley politicians are in a lather. But Modi knows the special status must go.

It has never really worked as intended. The Centre pours in 10% of its funds for J&K which has 1% of the population. India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, with 13% of the population, only gets 8% from the Centre.

 The 15 lakh mostly Sunni Muslims that live in the Valley, deeply affected by Pakistani instigated separatism, have to be subdued with a half million troops as well. This is because of the askew demography of the Valley, the unhealthy restrictions of  35A and 370, and the forced exodus of the native Pandits.

The  Valley political parties, including the National Conference (NC), and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have threatened all kinds of blue murder. Pakistan has also made bold to say it will not accept abrogation of Article 370. But, notwithstanding these intemperate rantings, Modi, who will most likely appoint Shah as Union Home Minister after the election, has made up his mind.

There will be a big challenge, both internal and external, to overcome when this is done. The Congress Party is sure to raise a hue and cry, and has already made common cause also with the NC and the PDP.

Shah has said Article 370 will go once the NDA has a majority in both houses- expected by 2020. The matter has been brought up the list and given priority in  BJP’s Sankalp Patra too.

This integration of J&K, a very old demand, will probably lead to the updating of  views at the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). This could see a fresh thrust towards implementation of  a Uniform Civil Code, after pushing through the Triple Talaq Law in the Rajya Sabha. The Ram Mandir at Ayodhya also could see a favourable verdict from the Supreme Court early in the new term, and the commencement of construction at last.

 All this put together, will tackle most of the key aspirations of the Sangh Parivar and set the stage for an NDA win in 2024 as well.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s routine nuclear threats occasioning the policy of “strategic restraint”  has been thrown over. India has hit back after significant cross-border terrorist strikes, using Indian Army Special Forces at Uri in 2016. And repeated it, with the Balakot air strikes of 2019.

To make sure that the Pakistan is left in no doubt as to the future uselessness of nuclear threats, Modi has issued a nuclear threat of his own. This may have scrapped another Vajpayee era shibboleth; that of no-first-use.

What is certain is that India has vowed to retaliate against all large future  terrorist attacks. And for the first time, its diplomacy has rendered it the support of the world.

In addition, to raise Pakistan’s costs further, India is pushing hard for its blacklisting by FATF where it is already on the grey list. The matter of Masood Azhar being declared an international terrorist has been taken up now by the US, Britain and France, in addition to most of the 15 member Security Council at the UN, flying in the face of China’s veto. The IMF, being asked for a big bail-out loan by Pakistan, has also received a cautionary note from India.

Elsewhere too BJP has taken a tough line.The National Citizenship Register (NCR) and the Citizenship Bill waiting to become a full fledged Act, some think will cost the NDA seats in the North East. Others hold the opposite view, particularly since the demographics of the North East have been systematically and deliberately eroded with the importation of Bangladeshi Muslims. 

Nevertheless, the Modi government has taken its calculated risk, and asserted that it will implement the NCR and the Citizenship Act as soon as possible.

The accelerated militarisation and modernisation of the Armed Forces and its weaponry is a top priority for the Modi government. The military is to be of sufficient heft to defend against both Pakistan and China -simultaneously if necessary.

Training, equipment, infrastructure, connectivity, cyber intelligence, are all going into it, along with India’s own superior military surveillance via its satellites and other friendly state inputs.

Much work, involving investment of billions of dollars, is in the pipeline, both in terms of outright foreign purchases, and domestic military manufacture.

In the ensuing national debate after J&K is integrated,  attention is likely to be focused on the subversion of the broader Indian republic by the misuse of the term  “Secular”.   This was quietly inserted into the Preamble to the Constitution during the Emergency, along with the word “Socialist”.

While Socialism has been dismantled to a great extent since 1991, removing “Secular” from the Preamble now will prevent further mischief. It will also de facto give the majority Hindus a level playing field without having to adopt a state religion. There will be existing constitutionally guaranteed state protection for well- behaved minorities of course. But incitement and terrorism will not be tolerated. A much tougher sedition law too is coming up as per current Home Minister Rajnath Singh.

Nominally however, deletion of this one word will restore the balance to the original Indian Constitution of  1950, drafted by Bhimrao Ambedkar and the Constituent Assembly. This envisaged India as a Sovereign, Democratic, Republic - no more, no less.

Modi’s “New India” will go boldly into the 21^st century into areas like Space and high technology in an altogether unprecedented manner. It will shed its emerging economy tag. China as India’s main frenemy and Pakistan’s all-weather friend, already knows this is inevitable.

The next 10-15 years will see India into the top three economies of the world, turning over more than $10 trillion, with all its attendant global responsibilities.

Extreme poverty as we know it will be gone. The bulk of the Indian people will be in the middle-class. Per capita incomes, even for nearly 2 billion people, particularly on a PPP basis, will be respectable. Rural-Urban economic divides and disparities will be bridged.

The high table of the world is beckoning, and India will claim a seat at it.

(1,400 words)

April 23^rd 2019

For: The Sunday Guardian

Gautam Mukherjee

The Election That Will Transform India

The Election That Will Transform  India

The anxiety being experienced by a scared and scattered Opposition is understandable. The first round of electioneering appears to have gone badly for Chandrababu Naidu’s Telegu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh (AP).

This is significant, because Naidu  is now one of the tallest pillars of the handholding-on-a-dais Opposition alliance cum photo-op.

Another, West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee, is also likely to lose  a significant number of Lok Sabha seats to a determined BJP challenge, and is no longer in a position to dream of becoming  prime minister herself.

The SP-BSP combine in Uttar Pradesh may not achieve those by-poll-like results. The whisper campaign advises Akhilesh Yadav’s SP voter not to transfer its vote to Mayawati’s BSP. And this being the third great pillar, also looks shaky.

The scenario in Bihar is murky; and Laloo Prasad’s RJD cannot, by itself, pull the gatbandhan out of the mire.

 The likely victor in AP which has had simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, is Jagan Reddy. Reddy is the former Chief Minister of undivided Andhra Pradesh’s son. He has not allied himself with the BJP or the NDA as yet. But, he will probably go whither neighbour and ally Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao ( KCR) of Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) does.

In the absence of Exit Polls, not allowed by the Election Commission (EC), till after the last round of voting in May, the Satta Bazaar has swiftly issued its brutal verdict. And since it puts its money where its mouth is, it cannot be taken lightly.

The prospect of a resounding victory and second term for Narendra Modi as Prime Minister is looming large. It wouldn’t matter so much if the Modi-Shah combine at the NDA apex was not quite so assertive and clear in its intent to decimate the Congress in particular.

That the prime minister and party president, do not particularly resemble AB Vajpayee’s administration, terrifies the Opposition. The old niceties are gone. There is no quid pro quo required.

Talk of a much stronger sedition law, along the lines of the erstwhile TADA, has already been floated by the incumbent Home Minister Rajnath Singh- this after the NDA returns.

The Congress, which most of the Opposition is shying away from, see themselves as the main target to be erased from the political narrative.

Vajpayee’s administration, that ended in 2004, being the only other BJP/NDA government , seems like a very different thing. It lulled the UPA that came back to power for a decade after, into an existential complacency. Rahul Gandhi gave voice to it by asserting it was the default party of government, and was destined to come back to power.

But in 2019, this looks like a pipe dream, despite the unleashing of a blizzard of misinformation, rhetoric, and election- oriented propaganda.  Rahul Gandhi might have been right if Modi were indeed like Vajpayee. The latter admired Jawaharlal Nehru, and fancied himself as something of a Nehruvian.

Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have very different heroes. To them, the long lost and obscured icons of the RSS and the Jan Sangh have to be given their due and pride of place. The sins of omission, commission, and humungous corruption of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty have been given full play, resulting in a considerable public disenchantment with this family.

Modi and Shah have spearheaded an unabashed nationalist projection that demands fealty and old fashioned patriotism. There is little patience for liberal prevarication and silky sedition in the name of diversity and pluralism. The forthrightness of the rejection of much that stood for the Nehruvian “Idea of India” is stark.

Modi terms everything he stands for as the vision for a “New India”. This India puts national self-interest first in foreign affairs, and seeks to build a robust economy,  strong physical and security infrastructure. It works for the elimination of poverty and corruption with a plethora of concrete steps. It refuses to countenance the exploitation of poverty Congress-style to perpetuate itself in power. It works for the rich, the technologists, the innovators, foreign interests, the middle class, the nationalists, Hindutva, and the poor, all at the same time. It is determined to join the ranks of the developed world within a decade.

There is a restoration of Hindu pride by the NDA. This religion of the majority of Indians was badly oppressed in the name of a sinister corruption of the secular ideal. But, the coming of Modi’s version of the NDA, is a page break from the past. In the progress of India as an independent nation, it marks a new beginning.

The history of contemporary India, when written at the century mark in 2047 will probably split its narrative to before 2014, and after. Before 2014, the dominant ideas that ran India came almost totally, from the Nehru-Gandhi family, with brief interruptions in power terms, when others ruled.

But none of these other governments except NDA I, had any great difference in their socialist vision for India. One that condoned economic under-performance, protectionism, and grinding poverty for millions, almost as if it was a virtue. 

The most significant departure of those years however was the administration of Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao.  The erudite Rao, despite being a career Congressman, did lay the foundations of the New India. But PV Narasimha Rao’s departure from the Congress line was in economic matters, where his liberalisation and unfettering of the economy, the introduction of foreign companies and global competition, made it impossible to go back to the way things were.

It was this that Vajpayee, mostly in things strategic and economic, and to a much greater extent Modi, built upon.

Vajpayee had the courage to take India nuclear and built the Golden Quadrilateral of highways. The Modi-Shah combine which won the first majority in 30 years, not only set about making the NDA the dominant political presence on a pan-India basis, but decided to challenge the Nehruvian Idea of India.

They did not flinch when a veritable hornet’s nest of revisionists counter-attacked, earning the admiration of the aspirational young, fed up with the status quo. This is the big departure culturally that is revising the DNA of India. But it is not all rousing speeches. The Modi government has addressed every other heading towards the modernization of  India’s  infrastructure and performance, albeit with varying degrees of success in its first five years.

There has long been a mismatch between the traditional narratives heard by every child at home from the elders and the edited ideas put forward by a so-called modern Nehruvian India. An edited version that seemed to build upon Macaulay’s intent of making Indians ashamed of their own heritage, in favour of Western ideas. That such a thing, designed to turn out educated but under-confident babus for the Raj, would be incorporated into independent India’s education system, particularly in the Humanities, is doubly reprehensible.

Modi, a follower of Vivekananda has demonstrated the courage to be a proud Indian. Millions of people have decided to follow his inspiring example. This sort of thing is alien to the floundering Congress leadership, still milking Nehru’s ideas from generations ago. The present leadership with its sense of dynastic entitlement, can’t understand how a sheep-like populace that reposed faith in it has now, so conclusively, turned away.

As things stand today,  it is not only that there will be an NDA win in 2019, but the Congress will shrink even further from its pathetic showing in 2014. India has come of age, ready to take its rightful place in the sun, led by a charismatic, honest and visionary leader.

(1,267 words)

For: My Nation

April 17^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

Why J&K Can Be Readily Integrated With The Rest Of India

Why J&K Can Be Readily Integrated With The Rest Of India

In the vexed saga of J&K over the last seven decades, the sequence of events that conjoined it to the Indian Union is very important. The conjoinment in particular, like that of Siamese Twins, is the operative thing.

This, despite the wild statements and anti-national efforts 0f Valley politicians in the storied National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), as  well as other, overtly separatist, but now proscribed organisations.

The first document signed was the Instrument of Accession between Maharaja Hari Singh and Lord Louis Mountbatten, then Governor General of India, just after independence, on the 25^th or 26^th October 1947.

By this Instrument of Accession, J&K joined the then Dominion of India, under the Indian Independence Act 1947. It immediately transferred responsibility for its defence, foreign affairs, and communications.

Maharaja Hari Singh decided to accede to India, in the face of entreaties and threats from Pakistan, as was his privilege. But perhaps he hesitated too long, hoping no doubt to stay independent, and turned to India only under duress.

Pakistan had already moved to take J&K, only falling back to occupy PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan. It used regular troops disguised as “ pathan tribesmen”, in the earliest avatar of Pakistani cross-border terrorism.

Based on this signing, Indian Army troops were airlifted into Srinagar, the very next day, on the 27^th of October. The troops saw to it that most of J&K  including the capital and the Srinagar Valley and environs was retained.

India, under Prime Minister Nehru, dithered at today’s LoC, refusing to let its Army reclaim PoK from Pakistan. Instead, Nehru referred the illegal occupation of PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan to the newly formed United Nations,   itself started only in January 1946.

And there the POK issue sat, unresolved to this day.  In retrospect, it appears that Prime Minister Nehru tacitly allowed the partition of the Kashmir portion of J&K, probably hoping for a peaceful coexistence that was not to be.

Lately, China, which formed into a Communist Republic under Chairman Mao in 1949, and soon invaded Tibet with impunity in 1950, has built its China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor (CPEC) road.

This extends from its largely Muslim Xinkiang Province through PoK/Gilgit-Baltistan and on through all of Pakistan to Gwadar in Balochistan.

Lord Mountbatten, to try and mollify Pakistan even as he leaned towards India in the matter of the Accession, made suggestions, that a plebiscite should perhaps be called. This, in a letter dated 27^th October 1947. This was never taken up by India, even as Pakistan has raised the idea intermittently, several times since, and up to this day.

India was busy drafting its own constitution immediately after independence, promulgating it on Republic Day, 26^th January 1950. This document has, notwithstanding amendments from time to time, regulated the affairs of both the Centre and the States in a quasi-federal manner ever since.

All the Princely States, including J&K, which had signed similar Instruments of Accession, were invited to send representatives to India’s constituent assembly. When the  Indian Constitution was completed, they did not see the need for separate state constitutions, though some moved amendments that were, in several cases, adopted.

The infamous Article 370 , drafted  to sit in Part 21 of the Indian Constitution- the “temporary, transitional and special provisions section,” was  necessitated because  J&K  was the only  state that wanted to draft its own constitution. It was promulgated on 17^th November 1956, crucially declaring that the State of Jammu and Kashmir “is and shall be an integral part of the Union of India”.

But when the J&K constituent assembly dissolved itself on 25^th January  1957, it neglected to request revocation of Article 370 which stipulated that all Indian Union powers would apply to J&K only with the concurrence of its “constituent assembly”.  The Indian Union, on its part, also did not scrap the temporary provision. But a lot of Indian constitutional provisions have been adopted in J&K well after the dissolution of  its constituent assembly.

The apparent neglect resulted in a temporary provision staying on the books and morphing J&K  into a “special status” state. In time 370 was converted into the holy grail by motivated Valley politicians.

A 1974 accord between Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Abdullah, agreed that J&K was  “a constituent unit  of the Union of India”, but was governed  via Article 370.  

But, Article 370’s essential nature, as a temporary provision, allowed to remain, gradually became an impediment to growth and national integration.  

In December 2016, The Supreme Court of India disabused  the High Court of J&K which stated that the State of Jammu & Kashmir  had :absolute sovereign power”. It  insisted it had “no vestige” of sovereignty outside the Constitution of India. 

Yet the J&K High Court, taking its authority from the temporary provision in a loop of logic ruled Article 370 cannot be “abrogated, repealed or even amended”. The Supreme Court, in its wisdom, gave a concurrent opinion on 3^rd April 2018.

This however is not the last word on the matter. Should the Government of India decide not to appeal, it  can just abrogate Article 370 in parliament by the procedure reserved for constitutional amendments.

Fresh legislation invoking J&K’s essential status as an integral part of India and the necessity of removing road blocks to its development and integration with the Indian Union can be the basis. This, along with a two-thirds vote of the strength of both houses will supercede and override the  2018 opinion of the Supreme Court.

From recent pronouncements of the outgoing government, and the prominence given to this matter in its Sankalp Patra, this appears to be the direction it will take post the elections if the NDA returns to power with adequate strength.

But, given the number of dilutions to its autonomy J&K has undergone over the years- is it even necessary to do away with Article 370? Amending various provisions of the J&K constitution in its Assembly is, and has been, the preferred route

That leaves Article 35A. It was added to the Indian Constitution through a Presidential Order on 14^th May 1954 by President Rajendra Prasad on the advice of Prime Minister Nehru.

It was birthed with reference to Article 1 of Article 370  during the currency of the J&K constituent assembly. It conferred Indian citizenship on all people of J&K, but they, in turn, sharply restricted the rights of “outsiders” in the state.

35A , most damagingly from today’s perspectives, determines who can be deemed to be a “permanent resident” of J&K, with related rights to benefits, property and land in the state. It snatches away inheritance rights of  children born to Kashmiri women who marry  other Indians, but not if they marry Pakistanis!

J&K, to be fair, has always been wary of being inundated by people from elsewhere. It had restrictions on land purchase by outsiders, including the British, given its excellent climate and exceptional scenic beauty, even during its existence as a princely state under British paramountcy.

But, there is no reason why, as in a number of other states, so-called outsiders cannot own land and property in limited amounts and reside freely in the state.

At present, 260 of the 395 articles of the Indian Constitution, via a series of  over 40 Presidential decree amendments to Article 35A are applicable to J&K.

But the most critical thing is a question of a toxic and exclusivist demography that has created a heinous and bloody separatist movement in the Kashmir Valley aided and abetted by Pakistan.

This result may not have ever been the intention in 1954, but cannot be wished away in 2019. Removal of Article 35A  just via another Presidential decree will address the various unintended consequences of this provision.

Removing 35A and its ability to control state citizenship rights, benefits, and property matters, will automatically declaw Article 370 as well. Any legal sophistry with regard to a state constituent assembly that was dissolved in 1957 will then be rendered irrelevant.

For: SirfNews

(1, 322 words)

April 11^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

The Axis Of Power For The 21st Century Is Emerging

The Axis of Power For the 21^st Century Is Emerging

Going into  the general elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have accomplished more in foreign policy than he had ever hoped for. A seasoned but provincial politician, unused to the byzantine and exclusivist ways of Lutyens’ Delhi, he took to the skies very early in the day to get the acceptance he needed from the world.

And the first citadel he stormed was the erstwhile visa denying United States. This was due to the handiwork of the earlier government, that  had painted Modi in lurid colours.

At the end of five years – an unprecedented camaraderie, prestige, access, warmth, cooperation  and support globally, is  more than evident. International honours and encomiums are pouring in, even as Lutyens’ Delhi, hoping to see the back of Modi soon, remains partially unconquered.

But, in effect, the yesterday men and women of the Indian capital have been both out-flanked and out-classed. This even as they have been joined by second rung actors and writers to call for Modi and the BJP to be voted out.

If there is an ideological battle sought to be fought here, it is a losing one. Modi has not only won the hearts and intellectual approval of the majority of his countrymen, but also earned a high place for India in the world.

It is on his watch that an Axis of Power for the 21^st century is emerging. It is reinforced by intelligence and military cooperation between the most original, inventive, courageous, and intelligent people on earth.  It has taken shape and form over the last five years because India now has decisive and visionary leadership. One that is deemed likely to consolidate its  presence domestically, and be a force globally in the decisive decade ahead.

An axis is a rotational device, in the sense that it is an imaginary line about which a body or bodies rotate. It is this rotational quality that is relevant and deserving of focus in 2019.

The  cooperation of this Axis is no longer akin to the first rays of dawn. It has quietly overtaken and largely bypassed the red-tape ridden UNSC, NATO, the G7 and G20, BRICS, the APEC, OPEC and other, particularly Chinese led fora, such as Belt & Road. It has succeeded by being reasonably informal, trilateral, and definite in its sinewiness.

It is not dawn but early morning for it, even as the rest of the world - friends, rivals,  frenemies and foes, are busy coming to terms with it.

The Axis of global Power, in 2019, soon to enter the 3^rd decade of the 21^st century, is, first, America. It is an America that is far from finished, even if its global policeman role has been modified because it is unwilling to pay all the bills associated.  It is a formidable military power, many times bigger than China, and has the mightiest economy in the world.

Then, Israel, tiny, a military juggernaut, unswervingly reinforced by America. It is the dominant middle-eastern power. Supremely efficient and vigilant, Israel has, during the Trump presidency and under the leadership of  Benyamin Netanyahu, taken over Jerusalem as her capital, annexed the Golan Heights overlooking Syria, and is busy likewise on the West Bank. Israel also has the tacit approval of its most influential neighbours.  

And lastly, there is responsible India, waking up to its immense potential at last. India’s time has come as a chosen counterbalance to an imperial China. It is coincidentally now the fastest growing major economy in the world, has a raucous but functioning democracy, and is home to nearly 1.5 billion people, most of whom are young.

A slowing and ageing China, a dictatorship, that has emerged into the top ranks from the Deng Xiao Ping led 1980s, will be economically bracketed by democratic America and India, by 2030.

The three will form the premier triumvirate, but what counts is the tacit decision made with regard to the eventual stakes. Two, of this troika emerging towards the apex, are now allied to check the third’s bid for world domination.

This emerging reality is already driving other combinations back to the drawing board to work out new methods of leverage and relevance for themselves.

World domination, very much in President-for-life Xi Jinping’s scheme of things, is an ambition that China may never realize. But Xi Jinping is not convinced. He is relatively young. China is counting on a change of guard in the White House at least once every eight years to see it through. He ignores the continuity of policy because of the sharp differences between the Democrats and the Republicans on emphasis, if not ideology.

China thinks it can win if it is able to chip away at and degrade this Axis of Power. It does not want to precipitate a confrontation, not even with tiny Taiwan, that it has long claimed. The most likely bid therefore will be via its proxies, financially beholden allies, and bankrupt client states on every continent.

Today it could be Pakistan –practically a vassal, Saudi Arabia or Iran from which countries it buys huge quantities of oil. Tomorrow, again, The Maldives in the Indian Ocean, or The Seychelles.

There is Italy in the EU, and the financial state of Luxembourg, that have both signed up for the Belt and Road initiative. Russia in the UNSC is drawn in by the same token.

There are several countries highly indebted to China in resource-rich Africa. Others in the immediate neighbourhood of India, in SAARC and BIMSTEC have also allowed Chinese mega-projects on their soil on tough, if not ruinous terms.

China’s own increasingly bizarre manoeuvres will play a part in getting it ahead or pushing it back. And its financial resources though vast are not infinite. 

Besides deal after deal with insolvent countries only helps them acquire assets that can produce results only in the long term, if there is no political upheaval or nationalization of those assets.

In the South China Sea region, it could possibly use North Korea, but bear in mind that Trump has directly engaged Kim.  An effort is also on to dominate the Arabian Sea and Gulf from Gwadar.                                                                                                       

Meanwhile, others, Russia, Britain, France in the UNSC, Germany and Japan outside it, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, are forming up behind this benevolent Axis. This is for their own sense of self- preservation of course.

The ineffectiveness of the UN, the difficulties of the EU and so on, underscore the importance of  bilateral ties in 2019. Modi has been quick to recognize this and act upon it.

This formation, the Axis, has been gestating for some time, but the problem was that India had consistently failed to step up to the plate. This changed in when the Modi government demonstrated a determination to follow through on its geopolitical beliefs. It stood up to China at Doklam and attacked cross-border terrorists in both nuclear Pakistan and Myanmar. It has been regionally proactive in Afghanistan without going military. It has been supportive of Iran’s connectivity/alternative to Gwadar at Chabahar. Its  relations with  Saudi Arabia and the UAE are better than ever before, probably due to the emerging Axis, as much as its own efforts.

In terms of its workings, Israel has demonstrated its consistency in ways overt and covert in India’s dealing with Pakistani terrorism. And in defence/agricultural science cooperation.

America is not allowing anyone else, including China, to drive a wedge into its military cooperation with India. If there was a balance required to secure the future of the globe and its future via space, this is apparently it.

India and China may account for nearly 40% of humanity between them, but Nehru was wrong. These two countries were never meant to be brothers. They were not destined to be more than trade partners. This is clear now.

The Axis however is the geopolitical future. It is bound to grow from strength to strength in Modi’s second term.

(1,324 words)

For: My Nation

April 7^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

Emerging Good News For Military Make In India

Emerging Good News For Military Make In India

For the first time, the contours of a wide-ranging defence manufacturing capability for applications on land, sea, air, and now space, is beginning to emerge in this country.  The number of such projects provides proof that initiatives must have been taken as soon as this government took over. Over the last five years, some substantial projects started earlier were completed. These include the indigenous Arihant nuclear submarine and the Scorpene Class Indo-French conventional ones, the odd stealth frigate, some coast guard boats.

But that Make in India defence manufacturing is a vital strategic necessity was not felt very acutely before 2014.

The reason for a markedly changed reality now can only be a demonstrated political will on the part of Prime Minister and consequently in the Ministry of Defence.

The Army’s surgical strike in PoK in 2016, and the air strikes in Pakistan’s Balakot circa 2019, signal a marked change in India’s policy on tackling cross-border terrorism.

We have gone from a Gandhian turn-the-other-cheek to both eyes-for-an-eye, delivered with audacity, surprise, in the style of an Israeli preemptive strike.

The UNSC Western powers sat up at this last air strike and the possibilities it represented. Could India reign in the Afghanistan-Pakistan-Taliban problem by weakening Pakistan? Could it check China?

Others, affected by the South China Sea imbroglio and other Chinese high-handedness in the Asia Pacific were also enthused. The pattern was forming, and they remembered the successfully handled Doklam stand-off too.

The diplomatic support from America, Britain and France in particular, has been unprecedented.  But, with the rejection of the decades old policy of “strategic restraint”, the need for a sophisticated and indigenous  military machine has assumed a new urgency.

So it is not a minute too soon, that there is a flurry of good news on this front. The projects are often joint ventures. Certainly, they have some vital imported parts in the interests of ensuring modernity, high-technology, speed, economy, and so as not to reinvent the wheel.

The hitherto ponderous Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), ostensibly working on the Tejas project since the 1980s, has just delivered its 16^th single-engined Tejas Light Fighter aircraft (LCA) to the IAF. And it is on schedule.

HAL has an order for 40 of the LCAs in ready for combat configuration, and 8 trainers. The Tejas LCA recently demonstrated its prowess in the IAF’s Gagan Shakti exercise by firing the Air-to-Air BVR Derby missile.

The nimble fighter has also just participated at the air-show at Langkawi (LIMA-2019) between 26^th and 30^th March. It is being considered for purchase by the Malaysian armed forces in competition with the South Korean FA-50 Golden Eagle, and the Chinese-Pakistani JF -17 Thunder.  

The Tejas Mark 2 version is under development already. It will be a medium weight category fighter at 17.5 tonnes, up from the LCA’s 14.5 tonnes. It will be inducted, like the LCA, into the IAF and the Indian Navy. The Mark 2 specifications are based on a number of additional capabilities demanded by the IAF.

India has recently concluded price negotiations to acquire 62 numbers of C295 transport aircraft from Airbus to replace its vintage Avro 748 M transports. The agreement is expected to be signed by the government after the general elections. The Euro 2.8 billion deal envisages India assembly and increasing degrees of indigenization of all except the first 16 aircraft to arrive fully built.

The Gun Carriage Factory (GCF), Jabalpur has just handed over the first six Dhanush  155 mm x 45 Cal FH towed artillery to the Indian Army on March 26^th.  These new artillery pieces are indigenized to 81% and subsequent deliveries in late 2019 will achieve 91% indigenization. It has major upgraded features over the earlier 155/39 cal,FH 77 B02 Guns. This is a first delivery against an order to manufacture and provide the Indian Army 114 such field guns.

India will also get a Made in India M777  light-weight Howitzer by the end of 2019, when Mahindra  Defence rolls out its first such weapon in collaboration with Britain’s BAE Systems. India has ordered 145 of these  from BAE in a $750 million deal.  Only 25 of the 145 guns will be imported fully-built, and 5 of these have already been handed over to the Indian Army. The remaining 120 will be assembled, tested and integrated by the joint venture in India.

Meanwhile, India’s first indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant is being equipped with an India-made C0mbat Management System (CMS). This, most important nerve centre of the carrier, has been developed jointly by Tata Power Strategic Engineering Division and Electronics System Engineering Establishment and M/s MARS of Russia.

It has just been inducted into the Indian Navy after putting it through rigorous trials. This Naval CMS integrates the aircraft carrier’s sensors, weapons, delivery systems , data links, instruction lines to staff etc.

This 37,500 tonne Aircraft carrier, which is itself more than 80% indigenous, is in its final phase of construction at the Kochi shipyard. A second, much bigger aircraft carrier is to follow the Vikrant into indigenous manufacture, after the former is inducted in mid 2020.

The latest is India’s entry into the realm of space warfare. A jubilant Prime Minister Modi informed the nation about the successful A-SAT strike. America gently cautioned India against creating more space debris.  China, with its multiple low orbiting satellites watching the LAC realized it had just lost a major strategic advantage. Pakistan, on its part, nervously complained about the militarization of space.   

Not only is India just the 4^th country with this advanced capability, but the technology was entirely home grown at the DRDO and the ISRO. The secret strike programme dubbed Mission Shakti, was authorized by the Modi government in 2017.

India can now match America, Russia and China in being able to destroy a live, low-orbiting satellite in space. The future possibilities of conducting top down or lateral space warfare is now within India’s grasp, provided it doesn’t stop at this one test.

The nuclear triad of land, air, and sea-based strike capability has been added to, Given India’s ability to kill satellites in space, launch  heavy payloads and  ICBMs, the final frontier has also been breached.

The induction of the first four Chinook heavy-lift helicopters from America recently will be followed by more on order, again with a Made In India component. Likewise various other weapons systems such as the Apache helicopters, armed and unarmed drones, and a vastly better grade of sniper and assault rifle, including the Kalashnikov 213 are on their way.

There are India made missile shields which have been already been deployed even as the Russian S-400 missile defence system is on order. Additionally, American missile shields too are being considered, particularly for interoperability between the two militaries.

The military collaboration with Israel is ubiquitous, extensive and intensive and  has been tried and tested in battle. Israel has helped India in preemption, surveillance, fencing, provision of missiles, ammunition, bombs, drones, and intelligence sharing.

India is clearly busy modernizing and upgrading its own military capacities. One significant plank of Make in India is to make superior weapons in -country, but economically.

Inevitably, as this rolls out, there will be emerging opportunities in weapons and systems export. Countries like Vietnam, Chile, Malaysia, the UAE have already shown interest for different things. We could, quite easily, export the Indo--Russian Brahmos missiles in particular. These exports could become major hard currency earners for the country.

The knock- on effect of this, will be to form a virtuous cycle. India will have greater resources on hand for research, design, upgradation, collaboration, infrastructure enhancement, and constant modernization of our own weapons’ capabilities.

(1,274 words)

For: My Nation

March 30^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee

Competitive Poverty Alleviation Is The Ticket

Competitive Poverty Alleviation Is The Ticket

Will the proposed Nyuntam Aay Yojana (NYAY), the subject of both consternation and heated discussion, be a game-changer for the Congress?  Rahul Gandhi likes to think so. He calls the Rs. 72,000 per annum dole for an estimated 25 crore poor people (five crore families), who earn Rs.12,000 or less a month, “a surgical strike on poverty”.

He says, with his usual disregard for the facts, and a pitch at being a Robin Hood figure in a Gandhi cap, that if the Modi government gives away money to the rich, the Congress would do so to the poor. That there is little hope of Congress coming back to power on its own in 2019 is another little factoid he chooses to ignore. But for the moment, he thinks he has found the magic bullet.

Gandhi says Congress will implement the fiscal mathematics busting scheme if it “comes to power”. He says Congress has consulted leading economists. Celebrity economists Angus Deaton and Thomas Piketty are mentioned and Raghuram Rajan too.  Rajan has gone on record saying that NYAY is fiscally imprudent and very hard to implement, but also that space should be made for such schemes.  Nobel laureate Amartya Sen’s poverty alleviation economics may also have been an influence on the contours of NYAY.   

But as timings of announcements go, is what is good for the goose also good for the gander? If not, then how is this highly politicised announcement, with its eye firmly on swaying the voter, not a violation of the code of conduct?

At the same time, the Congress has been complaining to the Election Commission (EC) about the release of the Modi biopic and the Tashkent Files soon after , the latter being a film on the rumoured Congress conspiracy to murder Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri and clear the path for Indira Gandhi. The movies, slated to be released in the first half of April, even as some places go to the polls on April 11^th, are said, by Congress, to be an attempt to influence the electorate through the election season up to May.

The Niti Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar has been quick to sharply criticise both the content and the timing of NYAY. And it has promptly earned him a notice for an explanation of his comments from the EC.

But the competitive welfarism with an eye to the 2019 general elections has not begun with NYAY. The Modi government’s humungous universal health insurance programme, Ayushman Bharat-National Health Protection Scheme (AB-NHPS) announced on 15^th August 2018, covers about 50 crore people, from the poorest of the poor. This scheme, with a government funded insurance cover of Rs. 5 lakhs on a floater basis per family, for hospitalization and secondary and tertiary care, has already benefited millions.

The Modi government, has in recent times since, also unveiled a universal pension plan for  informal sector workers - the Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maandhan(PMSYM) that will, over the next five years, embrace some 10 crore people. And then there is the PM-Kisan Scheme,  with a cash dole of Rs. 6,000 per annum paid in three tranches, helping an estimated 12 crore small farmers with land holdings of 2 acres or less. The first tranche of Rs. 2,000 each, costing the exchequer Rs. 75,000 crores, has already been paid into the bank accounts of the small and marginal farmers.

Will Rahul Gandhi’s brand new attempt at mega populism put Narendra Modi’s modest dole in the shade?  Early reports show cautious anticipation of the proposed freebie along with skepticism in equal measure. The Congress promises of small farmer farm loan waivers have virtually not been implemented in the states it has recently won.

And then there are a clamour of questions. Is this a full dose scheme of Rs.72,000 for all the eligible as some Congress people have said, or a top-up based on the sliding scale of actual earnings that Rahul Gandhi has announced? How will earnings in cash be verified? 

How will the data on applications and qualifiers be handled? How much inefficiency and middle-man corruption are we going to see? Will NYAY cannibalise the federal allocations for other programmes? Will it flounder on the shores of various states, reluctant to pony up their share, just as it has happened with Modi’s health insurance scheme in West Bengal and other states? Will it become a bone of contention at all, because a UPA win and government formation in May 2019 is far from certain?

It will cost at least 2% of GDP, almost a fifth of India’s tax collections at present, or 13% of the Union Budget –some 3.6 lakh crores. Consider than the defence budget is at 11% of the Union Budget now, though many purchases of equipment and weaponry are being paid for outside the annual budget allocations.

Congress has been busy reimagining itself as the main contender despite several headwinds. Its position and acceptability as leader within a future winning UPA line-up is uncertain. Will it better its 2014 tally and if so by how much? And even if it is the single largest component of the UPA, Rahul Gandhi himself may have to settle for a back-seat for the sake of cohesion. How many of his partners, let alone those in the NDA will be willing to implement NYAY after the elections? But it appears that the main purpose of NYAY is to win the elections rather than worry about its implementation.

Modi’s welfare and poverty alleviation schemes, including many started by the UPA, have taken care to not adversely impact the deficits or inflation. More money has also been poured into long-standing schemes like MNREGA in successive Union Budgets over the last five years. And yet, inflation has more than halved. The fiscal deficit has been lowered from 5.1% to 3.4%, and was headed towards 3.2% if it wasn’t for the recent farmer dole announced in the Interim Union Budget of February 2019.  

Congress, on the other hand, is banking on future growth in the economy to  cushion the impact of NYAY. It ignores the inflationary effect of minimum universal incomes seen in other countries, and the economists that would argue doles are unproductive expenditure.

The broader picture of a socialist hangover made up of subsidies and grants is a historical legacy that is very hard to shake off. This even though it could destroy the economic health of the country and ruin its international ratings in a global environment. And yet, with a huge and ever growing population of over 1.3 billion, poverty alleviation in all its forms must be a major goal of any ruling dispensation. Besides, the electorate has grown used to the government and opposition wooing it with benefits.

There is a case however to achieve a balance between economic imperatives and populism. The Modi government has done this admirably, but the Congress has traditionally worried less about the effects of its largesse. Is the electorate mature enough to see through the short- term benefits of doles which are invariably inadequate as contrasted with emphasis on growth and development?

Past experience would suggest otherwise, but the country has a new demographic of young, aspirational people. Will they be able to outweigh the appetite for benefits from the poor? Did they vote for Modi in 2014 because of his promised benefits or his vision for Vikas? Does the majority that supports him as prime minister today do so because they expect him to accelerate development?

It certainly appears so, with considerations of national security also playing an important part, particularly when contrasted with the weak showing of the various other leaders in the Opposition.  Even then, it is clear neither side is taking any chances on its competitive welfarism.

It is advantage Modi as the incumbent prime minister who is seen as tireless and honest. As someone who has curbed corruption and delivered in good measure on several of his promises.

Rahul Gandhi, on the other hand, has absolutely no track record in governance. Nevertheless, Congress has ruled this country for decades in the name of the poor, with indifferent results on their upliftment. For a scion of the grand old party to not use the allure of this tried and tested formula on voters would be unlikely.

The question is, has the country decided it wants much more than a modest hand out promised at election time?

(1,400 words)

For: The Sunday Guardian

March 27^th, 2019

Gautam Mukherjee