The
Axis of Power For the 21st Century Is Emerging
Going into the
general elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may have accomplished more in
foreign policy than he had ever hoped for. A seasoned but provincial politician,
unused to the byzantine and exclusivist ways of Lutyens’ Delhi, he took to the
skies very early in the day to get the acceptance he needed from the world.
And the first citadel he stormed was the erstwhile visa
denying United States. This was due to the handiwork of the earlier government,
that had painted Modi in lurid colours.
At the end of five years – an unprecedented camaraderie,
prestige, access, warmth, cooperation and support globally, is more than evident. International honours and
encomiums are pouring in, even as Lutyens’ Delhi, hoping to see the back of Modi
soon, remains partially unconquered.
But, in effect, the yesterday men and women of the Indian
capital have been both out-flanked and out-classed. This even as they have been
joined by second rung actors and writers to call for Modi and the BJP to be
voted out.
If there is an ideological battle sought to be fought
here, it is a losing one. Modi has not only won the hearts and intellectual
approval of the majority of his countrymen, but also earned a high place for
India in the world.
It is on his watch
that an Axis of Power for the 21st century is emerging. It is
reinforced by intelligence and military cooperation between the most original,
inventive, courageous, and intelligent people on earth. It has taken shape and form over the last five
years because India now has decisive and visionary leadership. One that is
deemed likely to consolidate its presence
domestically, and be a force globally in the decisive decade ahead.
An axis is a rotational device, in the sense that it is
an imaginary line about which a body or bodies rotate. It is this rotational
quality that is relevant and deserving of focus in 2019.
The cooperation of
this Axis is no longer akin to the first rays of dawn. It has quietly overtaken
and largely bypassed the red-tape ridden UNSC, NATO, the G7 and G20, BRICS, the
APEC, OPEC and other, particularly Chinese led fora, such as Belt & Road.
It has succeeded by being reasonably informal, trilateral, and definite in its
sinewiness.
It is not dawn but early morning for it, even as the rest
of the world - friends, rivals, frenemies
and foes, are busy coming to terms with it.
The Axis of global Power, in 2019, soon to enter the 3rd
decade of the 21st century, is, first, America. It is an America
that is far from finished, even if its global policeman role has been modified because
it is unwilling to pay all the bills associated. It is a formidable military power, many times
bigger than China, and has the mightiest economy in the world.
Then, Israel, tiny, a military juggernaut, unswervingly
reinforced by America. It is the dominant middle-eastern power. Supremely
efficient and vigilant, Israel has, during the Trump presidency and under the
leadership of Benyamin Netanyahu, taken
over Jerusalem as her capital, annexed the Golan Heights overlooking Syria, and
is busy likewise on the West Bank. Israel also has the tacit approval of its
most influential neighbours.
And lastly, there is responsible India, waking up to its
immense potential at last. India’s time has come as a chosen counterbalance to an
imperial China. It is coincidentally now the fastest growing major economy in
the world, has a raucous but functioning democracy, and is home to nearly 1.5
billion people, most of whom are young.
A slowing and ageing China, a dictatorship, that has
emerged into the top ranks from the Deng Xiao Ping led 1980s, will be
economically bracketed by democratic America and India, by 2030.
The three will form the premier triumvirate, but what
counts is the tacit decision made with regard to the eventual stakes. Two, of
this troika emerging towards the apex, are now allied to check the third’s bid for
world domination.
This emerging reality is already driving other
combinations back to the drawing board to work out new methods of leverage and
relevance for themselves.
World domination, very much in President-for-life Xi
Jinping’s scheme of things, is an ambition that China may never realize. But Xi
Jinping is not convinced. He is relatively young. China is counting on a change
of guard in the White House at least once every eight years to see it through.
He ignores the continuity of policy because of the sharp differences between
the Democrats and the Republicans on emphasis, if not ideology.
China thinks it can win if it is able to chip away at and
degrade this Axis of Power. It does not want to precipitate a confrontation,
not even with tiny Taiwan, that it has long claimed. The most likely bid
therefore will be via its proxies, financially beholden allies, and bankrupt
client states on every continent.
Today it could be Pakistan –practically a vassal, Saudi
Arabia or Iran from which countries it buys huge quantities of oil. Tomorrow,
again, The Maldives in the Indian Ocean, or The Seychelles.
There is Italy in the EU, and the financial state of
Luxembourg, that have both signed up for the Belt and Road initiative. Russia
in the UNSC is drawn in by the same token.
There are several countries highly indebted to China in resource-rich
Africa. Others in the immediate neighbourhood of India, in SAARC and BIMSTEC
have also allowed Chinese mega-projects on their soil on tough, if not ruinous
terms.
China’s own increasingly bizarre manoeuvres will play a
part in getting it ahead or pushing it back. And its financial resources though
vast are not infinite.
Besides deal after deal with insolvent countries only
helps them acquire assets that can produce results only in the long term, if there
is no political upheaval or nationalization of those assets.
In the South China Sea region, it could possibly use North
Korea, but bear in mind that Trump has directly engaged Kim. An effort is also on to dominate the Arabian
Sea and Gulf from Gwadar.
Meanwhile, others, Russia, Britain, France in the UNSC,
Germany and Japan outside it, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Australia, Japan,
Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, are forming up behind this benevolent
Axis. This is for their own sense of self- preservation of course.
The ineffectiveness of the UN, the difficulties of the EU
and so on, underscore the importance of bilateral ties in 2019. Modi has been quick to
recognize this and act upon it.
This formation, the Axis, has been gestating for some
time, but the problem was that India had consistently failed to step up to the
plate. This changed in when the Modi government demonstrated a determination to
follow through on its geopolitical beliefs. It stood up to China at Doklam and
attacked cross-border terrorists in both nuclear Pakistan and Myanmar. It has
been regionally proactive in Afghanistan without going military. It has been
supportive of Iran’s connectivity/alternative to Gwadar at Chabahar. Its relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE are better than ever
before, probably due to the emerging Axis, as much as its own efforts.
In terms of its workings, Israel has demonstrated its consistency
in ways overt and covert in India’s dealing with Pakistani terrorism. And in
defence/agricultural science cooperation.
America is not allowing anyone else, including China, to
drive a wedge into its military cooperation with India. If there was a balance
required to secure the future of the globe and its future via space, this is
apparently it.
India and China may account for nearly 40% of humanity
between them, but Nehru was wrong. These two countries were never meant to be
brothers. They were not destined to be more than trade partners. This is clear
now.
The Axis however is the geopolitical future. It is bound
to grow from strength to strength in Modi’s second term.
(1,324
words)
For:
My Nation
April
7th, 2019
Gautam
Mukherjee
No comments:
Post a Comment