War With China & Pakistan Will Propel India’s Rise
The barbaric clash at
Galwan, has put paid to the myth of “peace and tranquillity” on the Indian
borders with China. It was a myth because while neither side was shooting,
China was encroaching on Indian territory in strength. It was coming up behind
innocuous but probing foot patrols, and creating infrastructure every summer. India
was too intimidated to do anything about it for decades, and the governments of
the day covered it up.
There is also a fifth
column operative in India that favours the Chinese point of view. It is still
active, but far less influential than it used to be. China has taken the
trouble to put considerable monetary resources to create an ecosystem that
cheers its positions, spies for it, spreads misinformation, hacks into secrets,
and subverts officials and politicians. This is not just in India and the US,
but in various parts of Western Europe as well.
Negotiations are on presently
to restore order and a seemly disengagement from Eastern Ladakh. This might
happen in some measure, but there is a perception that the Chinese will not
actually leave, unless they are forced out of Indian territory. The perception
is bolstered by the fact that satellite pictures show a considerable and
growing build up of fighting men, armaments, heavy construction equipment and
materials on the Chinese side of the LaC, behind the various flash points,
including the Galwan River Valley.
To build Indian clarity
of purpose on the LaC, all treaties and agreements since 1962, and indeed the
Panchsheel Declaration in the fifties, have
to be mentally consigned to the dustbin. India must take a page out of the Red
Chinese playbook, wherein it never lets its strategic interest suffer because
of a signature on a piece of paper.
India clearly thinks it
is a strategic necessity to take back what China has stolen over the years or
surrender to Chinese hegemony. Thanks to a foolhardy General Shu Keling,
imported from the Xinjiang theatre just days before the night of June 15th ;
China has overplayed
its salami slicing hand.
Thereby, it has
provided the perfect opportunity to India to set things to rights. This,
despite Chinese vainglory about claiming territory that is not, and never did,
belong to it. And outright lies about who started the fight that left it humiliated.
There were clashes
before this also, over the month of May, and always featured sticks, stones,
clubs. For the first time, these have been brought to the match as a subversion
of the intent behind not using firearms. There were no such “non-weapons” in
Doklam.
In addition, alongside
the US, there are new Indian moves to call for an independent Tibet. A radio
service, the Tibetan World Service, has been launched from under the All India
Radio (AIR) umbrella.
India is also declaring
the daily weather report in PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan and include the
territories prominently on our maps.
The Tibetan president-in-exile
is now a regular feature on Indian, and occasionally, international TV channels.
He lives in India, with his government, in addition to the popular Dalai Lama
and many Tibetan refugees.
The next clash with
China, wherever it comes, will probably spark a limited border war, unless
China decides to meekly take its licks without an attempt to retaliate. It may
not be very sure anymore of winning the battle. Nor of being able to sell their
side of the story internationally. The
list of countries China is presently confronting on various issues is quite
long. They may be too tired to rise to the challenge.
And if they lose, men,
equipment and territory, it will mean an
upheaval in Xi Jinping’s fortunes, and the credibility of the People’s Liberation Ar4my ( PLA), as well as the
Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
India is busy provisioning and war-gaming
towards this probability that seems more or less inevitable. The choice is
between retaliation and possible war, or loss of territory. India has declared
it is not willing to give up territory. An all-party meeting has been called for the
19th of June to build political consensus on this position.
China has revealed its
weakness in a real fight, taking 60 casualties, as per an American think-tank,
to India’s 20 at Galwan. This, despite the superior numbers it brought to the
premeditated clash. The PLA is not an army that has dealt with people who can
fight back. The Indians were expected to run away after their CO was killed.
Galwan was fought thug
fashion, hand- to-hand. The Chinese came to it with billy clubs, iron rods
wrapped in barbed wire, stones. The Indians seem to have snatched away some of their weapons, and ended up beating,
or hurling 60 Chinese to their deaths down the cliffs.
Battle hardened Indian
troops around the country, mirror the public anger at this Chinese treachery. Soldiers in the forward areas, are determined
to avenge their fallen brethren at the first opportunity.
India has overnight
started cutting trade ties, cancelling infrastructure contracts, barring
Chinese access to the Indian market, disallowing and rolling back all Chinese
investments, putting stiff tariffs on imports from China. All this will
decimate China’s $ 75 billion trade surplus with India.
There will be no more
hand- holding summits of the leadership in the foreseeable future.
The strategic thinking
in India has changed overnight. The moment is fast approaching to push back
hard, not only in Ladakh and along the nearly 4,000 Km border with China. This
is a matter of survival. But to make it stick India must also take back PoK and
Gilgit-Baltistan and hold it. This will post a decisive blow to the two-front
challenge from China and Pakistan. A more opportune time may not come again.
International support
for India is growing. It has just been inducted into the UNSC with an
overwhelming number of positive votes, for a two-year term, during which it
will helm the UNSC in August 2021.
The support this time
is not just in terms of statements from India’s Western allies, particularly the
US, calling out China’s latest border intrusions in Ladakh.
The US and others have
their own bone to pick with China as well. They are moving like a wall to put
China under considerable pressure economically and militarily. Everyone has had
enough of China’s duplicity and expansionism, except for some of its highly
beholden satellites. And of course, the paid for Indian fifth column.
America has recently
transferred three of its nuclear powered aircraft carrier groups to the Pacific
and off the Red Chinese coast.
It has issued military
warning with regard to the South China Sea, and Taiwan. It has decided to
impose sanctions on the Chinese treatment of Uighurs. It has frowned on the
Chinese intent to curb democratic freedoms in Hong Kong and warned of
consequences.
China however seems to
be pressing on regardless in Hong Kong, and with its menacing of Taiwan. It has
deployed its own much smaller aircraft carrier to intimidate Taiwan. Those
keeping count, say that Red Chinese fighters have flown into Taiwan’s air space,
or very close to it, over a half a dozen times lately.
Japan, Australia and
India have deployed their navies in support of the US effort. Choke points such
as the Malacca Straits are under observation.
The trade war has intensified between China
and the US. The latter has threatened the cutting off of all trade ties with
China. There have been trade related tiffs with Canada as well. Britain has
been warned and threatened by China, both on trade, on the rejection of Huawei’s
5G bid in the UK, as it was in Canada,
and its attitude of support towards Hong Kong.
Chinese factories have
started up, but there are no orders. Xi Jinping and the parts of the CCP and
PLA loyal to him are grappling with rising unemployment, falling revenues,
simmering public resentment.
The Wuhan Virus and the devastation it is
still causing has radically changed the mood and soured international relations
with China.
Most countries are not
willing to stomach Chinese belligerence and imperialism any more. China’s misguided
Wolf Warrior diplomacy has back-fired. It has already consolidated the US,
India, Britain, Canada, Australia, into a resistance group. Others, in Europe,
such as Germany, Italy and France are following suit. Israel can be counted on,
despite its lucrative trade with China. Russia may try to sit on the fence and
even play both sides to its advantage.
China as hegemon will,
it appears, be definitely checked. America will once again step into the
resultant power vacuum, NATO allies in tow. It will be assisted by India, a key
Asian player on the front lines.
India has already
signed most of the protocols for a close defence partnership with the US, and
this is reflected in its increased access to the best US weapons systems.
Chinese has land
boundary disputes with practically all its neighbours, and claims to most of the
South China Sea. This is particularly irksome to the Western powers, as well as
countries around it, such as Vietnam. It is also in violation of the
International Court of Justice ( ICJ) verdicts on international waterways.
Regardless of this,
China has built artificial islands, placed missiles, communications apparatus,
stationed fighters, built air fields.
The Americans are now
also keeping an eye also on the Chinese Naval base at Hainan which houses its
nuclear submarines.
A skirmish therefore
could break out any time there.
For India, looking at
the long term, the Uttar Pradesh Defence Corridor and connecting highways have
not come a day too soon. India cannot be a top level power by economic growth
alone. It must make weapon systems that are world-beaters in their class and
function.
Others who have been in
this position, have taken liberally from what has gone before. Nobody has
wasted time and money reinventing the wheel. But after that there is need for
speed and innovation. There is need for further design improvements,
performance enhancement, localisation. The arms manufacturers must adapt
weapons to varieties of terrain, weather, ambient conditions, altitudes,
temperatures.
India fortunately has
no shortage of meritorious personnel, products of a very good higher education
system. And it has made some progress on a collaborative model.
India already makes
quite a few things. Items include bullet proof vests, rifles, machine guns,
howitzers, armoured vehicles, tanks, missiles of various classes, frigates,
patrol boats, submarines including nuclear powered submarines, aircraft
carriers, fighter planes, drones, radar systems, surveillance satellites.
It also assembles a
large array of weapons and makes components
in the private sector for military and civilian application. Today, when
the hardware of a weapon system is accompanied by a lot of bought out items and
software, India should not have an insurmountable problem playing catch-up.
Under the Modi
dispensation there has been an attitudinal shift away from imported weapons wherever
possible. Over the last six years, the government owned Defence Reasearch and
Development Organisation (DRDO), long mocked and derided, have produced radars,
howitzers, and other weapons that have been inducted into the Indian Armed
Forces.
Similarly, Hindustan
Aeronautics Limited (HAL), is well on its way to meet the acute shortfall in
fighter aircraft. It is also producing helicopters. The Indian Space Research
Organisation ( ISRO), is helping with satellites for the military.
India will henceforth
make almost all its ammunition as well. It has created a strategic oil reserve
underground. The private sector is integrating into the military manufacturing
effort is a force multiplier and
efficiency catalyst.
The cutting edge is yet
to emerge. And when it does, India will become a great power.
(1,934 words)
For: Sirfnews
June 19th, 2020
Gautam Mukherjee
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